The Bulwark Podcast XX
[0] Hello and welcome to the Bullwark podcast.
[1] I'm your host, Tim Miller.
[2] I'm just delighted to be here with my old pal, Stuart Stevens, former Republican strategist, advisor at the Lincoln Project, author of numerous books, including his latest, The Conspiracy to End America, and my favorite, the last season, a father's son and a lifetime of college football.
[3] We're going to end with college football.
[4] But Stu, we have a tendency to two of us when we get together to get a little dower, a little bleak.
[5] So can we start with a happy news item we have this morning?
[6] Well, to me, the happy news hours, I'm glad that Latimer won that race.
[7] We have a couple happy news items, but yeah, go ahead.
[8] I work for Sharon against Netanyahu when Sharon beat Netanyahu.
[9] I'm not a Netanyahu guy, but I am very much pro -Israeli, and I'm glad to see that happen.
[10] So that's good news for me. Yeah, that is good news.
[11] And I want to talk a little bit more about that race and some of the primaries here.
[12] I'm still in my parents' basement for people watching on YouTube.
[13] So we had some interesting primaries here in Colorado as well.
[14] I want to get to those.
[15] But first, our buddy, Bullwork contributor, Adam Kinzer.
[16] We had an awesome little town hall last night with him for bulwark founders.
[17] So if you want to be a founder, you can go to the bulwark .com and click on the thing at the top of the screen there.
[18] And me and Kinzinger kind of got a little teary -eyed talking about John McCain and Jesus and stuff.
[19] It was personal.
[20] But anyway, he made some news this morning, and I want us to listen to it together.
[21] I'm Adam Kinzinger, and I'm a proud conservative.
[22] I always have been.
[23] As a proud conservative, I've always put democracy and our constitution above all else.
[24] And it's because of my unwavering support for democracy, that today, as a proud conservative, I'm endorsing Joe Biden for re -election.
[25] My entire life has been guided by the conviction that America is a beacon of freedom, liberty, and democracy.
[26] So while I certainly don't agree with President Biden on everything, and I never thought I'd be endorsing a Democrat for president, I know that he will always protect the very thing that makes America the best country in the world, our democracy.
[27] Donald Trump poses a direct threat to every fundamental American value.
[28] He doesn't care about our country.
[29] He doesn't care about you.
[30] He only cares about himself, and he'll hurt anyone or anything in pursuit of power.
[31] We saw that when he tried to overturn an election that he knew he lost in 2020.
[32] He attacked the foundation of this nation, encouraging a violent mob of his supporters to march on the Capitol to prevent the peaceful transition of power.
[33] Now he's become even more dangerous.
[34] He's called for termination of the Constitution.
[35] He wants to be a dictator on day one.
[36] He actually said that.
[37] And he's continuing to stoke the flames of political violence.
[38] There's too much at stake to sit on the sidelines.
[39] So to every American of every political party and those of none, I say now is not the time to watch quietly as Donald Trump threatens the future of America.
[40] Now's the time to unite behind Joe Biden and show Donald Trump off the stage once and for all.
[41] Thoughts, Stuart?
[42] Listen, I think that's what everybody who has said all this stuff about Donald Trump has to do.
[43] They have to endorse Joe Biden.
[44] Chris Christie has to endorse Joe Biden.
[45] I hope that Mitt Romney endorses Joe Biden.
[46] It's just a logical choice.
[47] It doesn't really have anything to do about Biden, except that he is an alternative to Donald Trump and is in the American political mainstream.
[48] Why do you think there's been so few?
[49] I mean, I guess for people that don't know, you were Romney's top advisor.
[50] So on 2012, that's what we met.
[51] And so I guess I should at least note that.
[52] But like all these guys, I mean, you just named two of them, but there's a long list of people.
[53] All of the Trump cabinet officials we could start naming Esper and Mattis and McMaster and Kelly.
[54] Why do you think Kinsinger and, you know, Jeff Duncan and Georgia down there are so lonely on this pretty obvious endorsement?
[55] Yeah, Jeff Duncan, give a shout out to the former lieutenant governor of Georgia.
[56] I work for Johnny Isaacson and the senator there, sadly about a few years.
[57] ago.
[58] And Jeff was always one of these guys coming up who's clearly going to be a superstar.
[59] And he's someone who really has put his career on the line.
[60] I mean, this guy could have been future, may still be governor of Georgia.
[61] But, I mean, it was a real sacrifice for this guy.
[62] As a young family put it out there.
[63] I'm just glad you mentioned the young thing, right?
[64] That's why Jeff Duncan does deserve some credit.
[65] He was on the come up.
[66] Yeah.
[67] A lot of these old farts that are just their next step is retirement and that don't have the courage that Jeff Duncan did.
[68] What's the hold up here?
[69] I have no idea.
[70] I think.
[71] think that the problem with the unimaginable is it's hard to imagine.
[72] So maybe that's part of it, that we can't really believe that Trump is going to do these things.
[73] But that seems foolish, given the fact that he did do what he said he was going to do before or tried to do.
[74] I don't understand it.
[75] I just keep going back to my standard line that I'll never ask myself on 1930s Germany happened again.
[76] You're still talking to some folks in that world, though?
[77] I mean, what do you actually hear?
[78] An argument is the future of the Republican Party is important because we need a center -right party in America.
[79] If you go out and endorse Joe Biden, you have negated any future impact you may have within the party.
[80] So the day after, you will not have any chance of being an effective persuader of where the party should go.
[81] I feel a lot better about that if you knew that Trump was going to lose.
[82] If there was a day after, if we were sure, there was a day after.
[83] Yeah.
[84] You're certain there was a day after.
[85] I like that you make that point because it is a good argument.
[86] My pushback to people that make that argument is always, well, are you 100 % sure there's a day after?
[87] Because if you're only 98 % sure, then like...
[88] Yeah.
[89] You know, in 2016, I went out about this time, actually, to some prominent Republican conservatives in key states and tried to get them to run as favored sons, just to peel off to vote from Trump.
[90] And I can say, I had 100 % failure rate.
[91] And it was like this.
[92] Look, Stuart, If we have the establishment put our thumbs on the scale, when Trump loses, it's not going to be because he had terrible ideas, not because he's a racist, not because of the alt -right.
[93] It'll be because we rigged the elections.
[94] And we just have to let him lose and then rebuild.
[95] And I'm like, okay, great, but what if he doesn't lose?
[96] I probably wasn't very good at arguing the other because I didn't think he would win.
[97] But I'm not going to do that again.
[98] It's funny you brought this up because it was where I was going next eight years ago.
[99] I don't know if you were going to remember this.
[100] But Brian Lizzo wrote a story about this very question.
[101] And it was, I went and found the date.
[102] It was June 13th, 2016, and the New Yorker.
[103] And the story was about kind of what these people that spoke out against Trump during the Republican primary that year are going to do.
[104] And he went and talked to all of the Republican elected officials and strategists who had spoken out and was trying to figure out, are you going to be for Hillary, or are you going to be for somebody else?
[105] Or are you going to suck it up and vote for Trump?
[106] You know, the story ends up writing, it's kind of quaint in a lot of ways.
[107] In some ways, it's very similar to now, and that everyone ends up getting in line.
[108] But there's a lot of gnashing of teeth.
[109] There's a lot of concerns about policy.
[110] There's a lot of, I hope Trump will come around.
[111] All that sort of stuff you don't get now from the candidates, the interviews.
[112] But my memory from it was off the record when I was talking to Lizza.
[113] He was like, man, my interview with you about whether or not people are going to fight this guy was the second most bleak of any of the interviews I did.
[114] And I was like, oh, really?
[115] Who is the first?
[116] And he goes, Stuart Stevens.
[117] it wasn't even close.
[118] And he's like, Stuart, he's like, you won't go on the record in the story because he's right now still trying to recruit all these guys to do what you just called for.
[119] But he's like, none of them are going to do it.
[120] And like, here we are.
[121] Like, fucking Groundhog Day, eight years later.
[122] Yeah, it's worse.
[123] I mean, it's a complete collapse of the party.
[124] I mean, I just go back to it.
[125] You know, we haven't seen anything like this in certain modern American political history.
[126] And I don't think we see anything like it in American history.
[127] And if Trump got hit by bus tomorrow, it would only get marginally better.
[128] you have to beat these people.
[129] We have to beat them, beat them, beat them.
[130] And then finally, my best hope is that in 32, you could have a sane Republican nominee.
[131] 32.
[132] That's your last best hope?
[133] That's my last best hope.
[134] Is Mitt still around to 32?
[135] It's going to outlive us all in that.
[136] There's some things that are unique about Trump.
[137] I do think that if Trump went away tomorrow, we got the hamburger from heaven, we would probably be safe on the conspiracy to end America.
[138] But, like, there'd be a lot of really cruel, bigoted nationalist, hateful, un -American ideology still in the party.
[139] But, like, the compulsion to end elections probably goes away with Trump.
[140] Do you agree with that?
[141] Or do you think it's deeper than that?
[142] I think it's deeper than that.
[143] I mean, I think what is the intellectual framework of the Republican Party now?
[144] I mean, is it not still the Heritage Foundation?
[145] And what does the Heritage Foundation want to do?
[146] You know, they basically want to end democracy.
[147] Who are the superstars?
[148] You know, who are the emergence?
[149] And who would be a positive voice for that?
[150] J .D. Vance?
[151] I don't think so.
[152] That's what gets me. Like, who's out there in a party that doesn't have a room for a Cheney?
[153] I think it's an extremist movement, not a political party anymore.
[154] And the history of extremist movements is they only get more extreme until they burn themselves out.
[155] There wasn't like a moderate element of the Red Guard that emerged that reformed.
[156] it.
[157] It just burned itself out.
[158] There wasn't like, you know, well, the same people in the Camaroos are going to get together and stop this.
[159] And I think that's where it is.
[160] And I don't see any forces within the party that would stop it.
[161] It feels like the flame is starting to burn out a little bit.
[162] I do feel like the intensity of MAGA is down this year.
[163] I go to these rallies and we drive around rural America and the signs.
[164] It feels a little bit like their intensity is.
[165] is down.
[166] And I do think that Trump losing again, part of the reason why this was able to persist was the big lie, right?
[167] I mean, the main reason why this was able to persist was a big lie, right?
[168] Because Trump didn't become a loser, because he didn't lose, right?
[169] He got cheated.
[170] He really won.
[171] How many times can you play that game?
[172] I mean, some of these people go along forever, but isn't there some percentage of the Maga crowd that starts to be like, all right, buddy?
[173] That's enough.
[174] I think the decline in enthusiasm is just because Trump's act is getting old.
[175] We're in season nine.
[176] of the TV show.
[177] Yeah, the most powerful word in advertising is new.
[178] So Trump is old.
[179] I think that only sets the stage for someone new, like a J .D. Vance, who would come out and be like a, you know, pass the church to a new generation of it.
[180] I think you have to defeat the Senate candidates who go out there and try to have it both ways, like McCormick in Pennsylvania.
[181] He needs to lose.
[182] I think Payne is the only teacher.
[183] I just don't see any center of gravity in the party that could emerge and assert itself.
[184] I mean, all these people I helped elect just collapsed.
[185] I never thought I'd see it happen, but they did.
[186] Not Mitt.
[187] Everybody except one that you elected.
[188] Not Mitt.
[189] No, Mitt State.
[190] I worked with Liz very closely in debate prep for her dad.
[191] I wrote a book about the Bush campaign, The Big Encelada, and I actually predicted in that book that Liz would run for president.
[192] She was that impressive.
[193] I was kind of joking, but not really.
[194] This is 04VP debate prep?
[195] 2000 debate prep.
[196] 2000 VP debate.
[197] Which she ran.
[198] And let me tell you, she did an amazing job.
[199] Shockingly, there were a lot of people around Dick Cheney in 2000 who really thought a lot of themselves.
[200] And she had this deft way of dealing with them, like explaining to Paul Wolfer, it's, you know, Paul, there's really not a foreign policy angle to welfare reform.
[201] it's really not thank you very much do you look back on that debate prep and think that maybe there were some hubristic signs that that might have foretold some of the mistakes that might come in the uh in that foreign policy regime you know it's amazing when you go back and look at those debates uh the number one topic was what to do with the surplus and is that right the 2000 yeah you go back the first question in the brisk gore debate and And the word terrorism was never mentioned in four debates, three presidentials and the one vice president.
[202] It never came up.
[203] You go back and look at it, it's like artifacts from the lost civilization.
[204] The same if you go back and you read Michael Gerson's beautiful speech that he wrote for Bush's acceptance in the 2000 convention.
[205] You read that and you go like, oh man, this guy couldn't get 5 % of the party right now.
[206] This is a loser.
[207] all this optimism, humility, charity.
[208] Oh, man, that guy is just, he's going to get killed.
[209] Do you think Dick Cheney will support Joe Biden?
[210] Does Joe Biden want Dick Cheney support?
[211] Sure, sure.
[212] I'd be shocked if he hadn't already done it.
[213] You know, in my fantasy world, I'd like to put together a roadshow of Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, and have him go around.
[214] I don't understand why Christie wouldn't do it.
[215] I mean, look, I work for Christie in all his races.
[216] I love the guy.
[217] I literally was standing in the Atlanta airport when he endorsed Trump in 16 and tears came to my eyes.
[218] It was like watching a friend overgoes.
[219] And couldn't believe he continued to support him, even though Trump tried to kill him in debate prep with COVID.
[220] The guy you see now in the primaries, the guy who he always was.
[221] And it's just like, why do we have to go through this other stuff?
[222] But I guess in life you have to meet people where they are.
[223] It's better that he's there now.
[224] I don't think there's any chance he's going to support Trump.
[225] But he should actively be out there for Joe Biden.
[226] unlike you.
[227] Not only did I not work for Chris Christie, but I savaged him mercilessly and several the times being on the opposite side of him.
[228] So I don't think Chris Christie gives a fuck about my opinion.
[229] But I also just think that, A, it's the right thing to do for the country.
[230] Everything Kinsinger said in his endorsement is correct.
[231] But even if you were just looking at it from a pure ambition standpoint, like even if you did not have a moral cord, you're like, what is the right thing to do for my ambition?
[232] If Chris Christie came out and used the skills that we know that he has at the convention and then on the campaign trail all fall to savage Donald Trump and to make a moral case against Donald Trump and to acknowledge that he has policy differences with Joe Biden, you know, he might come out of that.
[233] He's much more likely to be in Joe Biden's cabinet in the second term than he is in Donald Trump or J .D. Vance or you know what I mean?
[234] Some Republicans.
[235] So like even from a career standpoint, it would make sense.
[236] I agree.
[237] He's more likely to get on boards, he's more likely to have a regular gig on television.
[238] He's more likely if he writes a book that might actually sell unlike his last book.
[239] So, yeah, I mean, I think if he looks in his heart and asks what's best for me, that would coincide with what's best for the country.
[240] I hope it does.
[241] I mean, I haven't talked to Chris for a long time, but I think he should.
[242] Hope he does.
[243] Hey there, it's JVL.
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