The Bulwark Podcast XX
[0] Well, that was a hell of a week.
[1] Welcome to the Bullwark podcast.
[2] I'm Charlie Sykes, looking back on, well, it's actually been a hell of a two weeks.
[3] And it's been a while since we've been joined by my buddy Tim Miller, who is taking a break from his many, many, many media ventures to come back on the podcast.
[4] So first of all, welcome back, Tim.
[5] I was chained in the basement, Charlie.
[6] I'm just happy to be unlocked.
[7] It's good to be back.
[8] You have been absolutely everywhere.
[9] And I want to start here.
[10] I'm sure you're tired of talking about this.
[11] But I want to talk about your quality time with Steve Bannon in Arizona.
[12] Now, this was on the circus.
[13] I think people probably seen it because it is freaking viral on social media.
[14] You had a chance to talk to Steve Bannon on the eve of the election.
[15] He was there to support election denialist who continues to be a denialist.
[16] What a shock.
[17] Kerry Lake.
[18] And you asked him whether he believed all this stuff.
[19] Okay, let's just play a bit of your confrontation.
[20] Tim Miller walks up to Steve Bannon.
[21] and this happens.
[22] You're the king of the Stop the Steel movement.
[23] What are you doing here?
[24] Shouldn't she be running away from you, running towards the moderates trying to get the old John McCain -Jef Lake voter?
[25] I think she's going to get that.
[26] You know, Carrie Lake's the future.
[27] Carrie Lake, this energy that, this populist nationalist energy.
[28] But what's she doing to appeal to those voters?
[29] The moderates, it seems like she's running against those people.
[30] No, I tell you what she's running forward.
[31] This is the independent vote and the working class and middle class out here.
[32] Why is she still talking about the 2020 election?
[33] Wait to the House of Representatives.
[34] representatives next year when we have a real J6 committee and we're going to adjudicate oh no we're going to adjudicate all the three November we can we're not really believe this a hundred percent you seriously think it was a stolen stuff I 100 percent no and she still thinks it was and she's still talking about 100 percent okay so Tim tell me about that you go back you have some history with Steve Bannon yeah I mean Steve do go back which is why I knew I had an advantage in this one confrontation you lose a little bit without the video so if you are one of the people that hasn't seen it on Twitter.
[35] I've got it pinned to my Twitter account probably for another day or two before I want to move on.
[36] The pure disgust.
[37] My pure disgust, but his body language is the key.
[38] So the backstory, the behind the curtain here is I heard he was there and he's going to come out and speak and because I have, as I wrote in why we did it, I know Steve a little bit.
[39] And so I texted him and I said, hey, I'm here, let's talk.
[40] And so he brings me backstage.
[41] We chant for a little bit.
[42] And, you know, he's just a classic bullshitter.
[43] He's buttering me up, talking about how they should give me a show on MSNBC and all this stupid shit.
[44] And I'm like, Steve, let's do this on camera.
[45] He gets permission from Kerry's campaign.
[46] Yeah, we bring the cameras back.
[47] And the key to this exchange for me is that I know that Steve knows he's lying.
[48] Steve knows that I know that he's lying.
[49] And Steve wants me to kind of get it.
[50] Like, it's one of these things where I didn't know him.
[51] If it was somebody that he had contempt for and just really hated and didn't care of their opinion, I think that he would be able to just lie to their face and insult them.
[52] But, you know, at some level, deep down in his dark soul, I don't love that he wants this, but he kind of wants me to think that he's smart.
[53] The old George Costanza, it's not a lie if you believe it, you know, that's hard, right?
[54] Like, it's hard to be so sociopathic that you advance a ridiculous lie over and over again without breaking, without smirking, without trying to talk to other people, you know, that you respect and giving them the wink, wink, nod, I'm in on this joke.
[55] And he tried to do that with me in this exchange.
[56] And that is where I knew that I just had this advantage and that I wanted to just continue to press them on it.
[57] And then what they didn't really show, it happened two times during the exchange.
[58] He only showed one.
[59] You know, he just, he laughs and he kind of gathers himself and then continues to try to, you know, talk nonsense about the election.
[60] And I just said, no, we're not doing this.
[61] I cut it off.
[62] I said, I'm not going to listen, let you sit here and, like, talk about the chain of custody of the fucking ballots or the Chinese bamboo, you know, any of the nonsense that he's pushing.
[63] Anyway, I think that it worked for that reason.
[64] And I was conscious of this.
[65] Like, I didn't want to give him an unnecessary platform.
[66] But I think that there are times where it's appropriate to demonstrate that these people are full of shit and that they should be embarrassed about that and called out for it because maybe somebody somewhere is going to look at this and be like, oh, my God, this guy that I've been listening.
[67] listening to it's full of shit but is he embarrassed does he have any shame at all because i was just looking at his eyes and it's like you're so deeply invested in this does he actually believe this stuff or is that like an irrelevant question is there is there a real person way down deep in there that it's going i know this is shit or what i mean how do you parse that up both no it doesn't matter because if you're a public figure what you say is is what matters not what you think but yes there is a person deep down it like i said they are there backstage's brother is there he's like introducing me to his brother.
[68] His brother's just like a normal guy in a blue blazer and khakis who like works at an investment board for colleges.
[69] You know, like just an old time Doug Ducey Republican guy, right?
[70] And no, he doesn't care enough to be honest, right?
[71] He needs to keep his grift going.
[72] And he sees this all as a big game, which we've discussed a lot.
[73] And so, you know, he tries to do this tongue -in -cheek thing with me, right?
[74] Where he's like, where he breaks.
[75] He's laughing.
[76] He's laughing.
[77] He's like, yeah, of course I believe.
[78] leave it while he's laughing the ticket you know okay so you asked the actually uh key question of this whole campaign which is what was carry like doing near that end of the campaign where you would normally think in on earth 2 .0 that the candidate would be reaching out to the center would be you know having locked up the base would be talking to i don't know mccain voters as opposed to wrapping herself in my pillow guy and steve bannon and telling mccain voters to go uh to go stuff themselves.
[79] That was an interesting question, and it was an interesting decision.
[80] So talk to me a little bit about, and in the end, may have cost her the election.
[81] Was she just so cocky and so arrogant that she said, screw those people.
[82] I got this thing.
[83] Probably did cost her.
[84] And in the end, it's going to be less than one percent, I think it looks like an Arizona governor.
[85] Cocky, arrogant in a bubble, buying their own BS.
[86] I mean, the vibes, I have to tell you, I wrote about this and it was the thing I probably got the most wrong before the election, but while I got the ramifications part wrong the assessment of what their sense of things was right if that makes sense like when i was around them their chefs were puffed they were confident they were having a good time they were having a blast it was a rock it was a rock concert it was exactly that's part of the reason they brought me backstage you know i'm a never trumper they're rubbing my face in this they're gloating you know that's why they felt confident enough to do this freaking interview why would you do an interview with me you knew i wasn't going to be nice to you you know but there was just this irrational exuberance.
[87] And part of it is the bubble that they're in.
[88] And I think that there's been a lot of ink spilled and a lot of podcast conversation about how Democratic elites are in a bubble and how they're out of touch with regular people.
[89] And there's something to that at times.
[90] But the Republicans, particularly these MAGA Republicans, found themselves in just a very thick bubble of their own, where they thought that they didn't have to do the normal politician think of reaching back out.
[91] They thought that they had enough enthusiasm with them, that people were disgusted enough with the Democrats, that because of, you know, transgender kids on swimming meets and what, you know, inflation and whatever combination of things, that they felt like they didn't have to do it.
[92] And, you know, their experience at these events was seeing hundreds and hundreds of people come out and cheer them for, you know, their most insane stuff.
[93] And in doing so, they turned out, they turned off a key.
[94] percentage enough of the vote in suburban Phoenix and elsewhere that was not interested in a governor that was going to be palling around with a guy who is responsible, at least in part, for a siege of the capital.
[95] That was enough for people.
[96] Some people said no, whether it was abortion or democracy or Steve Bannon or just carry a carrylake's nuttiness or all a vaccine conspiracy or all of the above, all in one big package, enough people said no. I don't, I might not like everything about the Democrats, but these people are lunatics, and I'm not giving them the keys.
[97] And it was a conscious decision based out of hubris and being inside of a bubble.
[98] And it was a really catastrophic decision, because Kerry is, in her weird way, like has an appeal.
[99] She was a TV news host.
[100] She could have pivoted to the center and probably squeaked out the 20 ,000 or whatever votes that need to do yet.
[101] But that wasn't where they were going.
[102] They had their eyes on the bigger prize.
[103] Let me come back to that in a second.
[104] But I think this point about the bubble is so interesting, because one of the things that really struck me was a little video of an appearance on Charlie Kirk's show.
[105] Yes, I do occasionally watch this sort of thing.
[106] And Wendy Rogers, state senator there, who is one of the most bat -shit -crazy extremists.
[107] I interviewed Wendy, too.
[108] I interviewed Wendy for the show, but it didn't make the cut.
[109] So Wendy's on after, Wendy Rogers, who is way out there, she's on the show after the election, and you can tell she is stunned, and she actually says, how did this happen?
[110] Maybe we live in a bubble.
[111] Wow, maybe I don't know what's going on out there.
[112] And I thought for reality to penetrate that far that Wendy Rogers is actually seeing the sky, it was pretty remarkable.
[113] But it was easy, I think, to get this wrong.
[114] And I had Mark McKinnon on the podcast yesterday.
[115] He's talking about, you know, having a similar experience up in New Hampshire where he goes to Maggie Hassan's event and it's really boring and, you know, lifeless.
[116] And then he goes to, you know, General Boldix event and people are having fun and it's raucous and everything.
[117] And, you know, you did the same thing and you wrote about it very clearly.
[118] Katie Hobbs ran one of the most low energy, uninspiring, uncharismatic campaign.
[119] She's running against one of the most charismatic, talented, deeply dishonest and crazy candidate.
[120] But it was easy to sort of get caught up.
[121] And everyone seems to have been caught up and like, you know, here's the next big rock star of MAGA.
[122] So how surprised were you that she lost?
[123] I was pretty surprised.
[124] And I did write in the article.
[125] I didn't think it was a done deal.
[126] And I said that there's, I think, some lessons to take for this, even if Katie wins.
[127] And I still believe that.
[128] So for example, Katie Holmes is going to win by about 1 % and Mark Kelly is going to win by probably 4 or 5%, like when all these ballots are counted.
[129] That's a meaningful gap, right?
[130] And so had things shifted 1 % the other direction and it's Carrie Lake winning narrowly and Mark Kelly winning by three percent.
[131] Like that article is going to look prescient, right?
[132] Because that is an important three percent, right?
[133] So I think that candidates and campaigns do matter, especially when there is a, when the stakes are very high.
[134] And I think that in this case, Katie Hobbs benefited not from a particularly compelling campaign or anything that she did, but from a deep sense that was, that happened across the country, as I wrote in the article this week, a complete sweep of the election deniers.
[135] Yes.
[136] Yes.
[137] Yes.
[138] It's just the fact that in a purple state, there are enough people, maybe not as many as we'd want.
[139] I wish it was 60 to 40.
[140] It was 51 to 49.
[141] But there are enough people that just said, no, I will not go along with something this nutty.
[142] I will not go along with something this bigoted and this crazy and that I can't trust that our democracy will hold and that basic rights will be protected.
[143] And so she benefited from that.
[144] And Carrie cost herself, you know, by not trying to appeal.
[145] And so on election night, when I was there at their party, you know.
[146] Yeah, I wanted to hear about that.
[147] What was that like?
[148] It was something because, again, they all thought that they were going to win.
[149] Like, the Star Wars Bar analogy is so beaten to death.
[150] Because it's so perfect.
[151] I know, but these people were worse.
[152] It was like a, it was like if the Star Wars Bar and the KKK rally met and, like, I had some live streamers there.
[153] I mean, it was so weird.
[154] It was Danny Johnson and Nigel Farage is there.
[155] And, you know, all of these, like some like some.
[156] some weird oathkeeper types, but also some, like, rich donor types.
[157] It was the most odd Republican event I've ever attended.
[158] But, you know, the early numbers come in and Lake is losing by more than Trump was in that early vote and absentee vote.
[159] And you sense to panic in there.
[160] And she comes out very early to do her little, you know, kind of crazy speech.
[161] And even the loons in this room, now some of them are going, yeah, we're going to come back.
[162] There's fraud.
[163] But I'm looking around, and that's about 50 -50.
[164] There's another 50 % of people who, you know, had been to these kinds of election night of things before and are kind of saying to themselves, this is odd.
[165] You don't usually come out and declare victory when you're down by 18, you know, very early in the night.
[166] Like, what is happening here?
[167] I'm unsure about this.
[168] And so the mood in there was very uncomfortable.
[169] And so it was very clear that what happened was going to happen right then.
[170] I kind of thought Kerry was going to come back and win by 1%.
[171] But I thought it was also very possible she could lose by 1%.
[172] It was clear that Masters and Fincham, we're going to lose.
[173] So I was really encouraged by that and encouraged overall that this was kind of like the closest one in the last nail in a huge overwhelming trend towards all of these folks getting knocked out.
[174] I prefer to think of it as the cherry on top.
[175] Yeah, sure.
[176] But, yeah, it's like the, I mean, it's the best news we've had in a while.
[177] I mean, you made me go back and re -listen to our podcast after Donald Trump left the White House, and it's fun.
[178] That's a fun.
[179] I appreciate that.
[180] And there's something to that win.
[181] It felt like there's something broader about this, this election day, to just have such a broad -based across -the -country rejection of these people and the fact that having Republicans who even went too far for me in dabbling with Trump.
[182] But if they showed even a modicum of normalcy and sensibleness, you know, they won.
[183] And so it's impossible to not look at that and say this mattered.
[184] Like the these people's behavior mattered and it cost them.
[185] And despite the fact that they had a lot of energy and they're having fun, it cost them.
[186] So I expected Gary to win.
[187] So I totally will admit that.
[188] And I was really thrilled to see or lose.
[189] I will gladly admit that.
[190] You were certainly not alone.
[191] Okay.
[192] So I think the least surprising story of the day is she's refusing to concede.
[193] And of course she is.
[194] This is her whole existence and her fame is tied up and being an election denialist and the candidate, why would she let that go?
[195] So I'm not surprised by that.
[196] I think it is significant.
[197] that she's the only one.
[198] All around the country, you've had Republicans who lose these elections and then graciously concede, which is kind of shocking, kind of a reminder of what a singular outlier Donald Trump was back in 2020.
[199] I'm glad you asked that and put it that way, because that was going to be my answer anyway.
[200] So full agreement.
[201] Lacksalt, even creepy Blake Masters, even Masteriano, really.
[202] And I will say this was something that in the lead -up, I had a sense might happen, because I looked at that, and I forget it was on this podcast or a different one, but I talked about that Larry Elder race in California.
[203] And sometimes reality sets in.
[204] When you get beaten bad enough, you know, you talk a big game about Trump and all that.
[205] But boy, it's tough when you lose then to go out there and be like, I've got to get myself up and I got to look at that camera and stare at it and lie and pretend like I think it's fraud and smile.
[206] And Carrie Lake is just psychotic enough to pull that off.
[207] And I think it's why she was particularly dangerous because everyone saw correctly that she had channeled.
[208] the Trump, all of the elements of the Trumpism in the most authentic way out of anybody who has tried to parrot him to date.
[209] So I'm not surprised that she could pull it off.
[210] I always said, look, say what you want about Ted Cruz.
[211] I don't like that guy at all.
[212] But Ted Cruz lost in 2020 or 2016, it's really hard to imagine a crowd full of people carrying Ted Cruz flags charging the Capitol.
[213] Yeah.
[214] You've got a certain amount of sociopathie and a certain amount of charisma to be able to pull that off.
[215] And it seemed like Kerry Lake and Donald Trump are really kind of the only ones that have it.
[216] Okay, so since we've dealt with all these serious questions, I have one other question that I thought you might have some insight into.
[217] What is with the weird soft focus lens when she does YouTube videos?
[218] What is that?
[219] It's creepy.
[220] I mean, what is she?
[221] I mean, she has to come out of the room right into the real world.
[222] I mean, you know, she's been on TV.
[223] She knows how to make herself look okay on TV, but it's weird.
[224] It's this gauzy look, and it's kind of got a theory.
[225] It feels like she's kind of beaming in from another planet.
[226] It's like, okay, what are we missing here?
[227] You kind of like want to pull it away and go, okay, so what's actually going on?
[228] I mean, when you just look at it as her and like in a Zoom, for me, it's kind of like, oh, you know, it gives it an air of like professionalism and, you know, she has a nice spotlight on herself.
[229] Okay, but then when you're like doing an interview and it's her and another person and the other person is beaming in from Earth.
[230] She's beaming in from gauzy, Vaseline -faced, non -earth.
[231] It becomes very creepy, and I don't have a good answer to it.
[232] And, you know, it was I had a list of things to ask the Lake Camp when I had to suffer a lot of time with them.
[233] And it was on there, but I didn't get around to it.
[234] A couple of them had suggested that I get drinks with them.
[235] And I kept following up saying, I will do that.
[236] I will take one for the team and get drinks with the Carrie Lake team just to kind of get a sense for what's happening behind the scenes in the crazy, but they never got that far.
[237] You know, they got a little comfortable with me, letting me get backstage with Bannon and texting me, but they did not get that comfortable.
[238] So I never got an answer on this.
[239] But I will do my best, Charlie.
[240] And if I can find the answer to why, what the thinking was, I'll report it here first.
[241] See, what I think would be hilarious is if you or I got that, you know, got that thing.
[242] And next time we're on MSNBC, we have to carry a lake glow.
[243] I don't even know how to do it.
[244] I would love to do that.
[245] That would be so great.
[246] Okay.
[247] So deep breath.
[248] Can Barry help us for that?
[249] Can Barry help us?
[250] Because I will do that.
[251] I'm next week, Thanksgiving week, it's a perfect time.
[252] I will do it.
[253] I figured you would know people who would know how to do that.
[254] Okay.
[255] Well, we have a lot of listeners.
[256] So if someone can make me look like Carrie Lake, I will do that on Thanksgiving week.
[257] Okay.
[258] So taking a deep breath.
[259] Donald Trump is running.
[260] I think everybody knows this.
[261] You did your Not My Party video on this incredibly tired, weak, boring speech.
[262] I mean, look, for people who think, well, you guys are never Trump, of course you're not going to like it.
[263] It was really remarkably bad, wasn't it?
[264] And I want to get your sense.
[265] What do you think was going on?
[266] We watched him for a very, very long time.
[267] And there was something happened in there.
[268] Yeah.
[269] I mean, it was long.
[270] I mean, all of his speeches were long, but it was, it drug out, man. I mean, Fox cut away.
[271] Have you seen the clip?
[272] This is hilarious.
[273] Are you seen the clip?
[274] He's going on about Angola?
[275] Angola.
[276] People don't even know who Angola is.
[277] And then like, Sean Hannity cuts in.
[278] It's like, that was President Trump.
[279] I mean, Fox is getting bored.
[280] So there's something to it.
[281] My guess here, and this is just as an observer who's had to suffer through seven years of having to think about Donald Trump and no inside info, is that the feedback he got from the small number of people that are still in his circle is that this.
[282] should be a state -of -the -union -esque type address, you know, that this should do base seriousness, like especially after that election.
[283] You didn't get great feedback on desanctimonious, and you used to be the president, you have that advantage over everybody, let's project that.
[284] That's what I think was happening.
[285] And so they're like, we're going to put you on the prompter.
[286] And he always hates that.
[287] He always just keeps that.
[288] Yeah, he's not good at that.
[289] He's not good at that.
[290] Okay.
[291] So it was not good.
[292] Now, I think if you went back, now JVL did this and looked at the triad and compared it to the 16 announcement and and so there were some things that were different like his energy level did seem lower and like his excitement to be there seemed lower but if you sat down and watched the whole 26 and that was weird and boring too at times right like we don't we just only see the clips of that the you know rapist and murder you know that's the only thing you watch anymore so you know part of that is just trump so i'm doing my best to just hedge and just be like we this is something that's worth monitoring i think that there is a chance that the thing that I've wanted to happen for seven years might finally happen, which is that, like, he just officially wears out his welcome.
[293] And I kind of, I always thought that was quite impossible.
[294] Betting on it always seems stupid.
[295] Even suggesting it on TV kind of makes you seem stupid, right?
[296] Because you were wrong every time.
[297] But eventually you are going to be right.
[298] Eventually, people aren't getting sick of him or he's going to die, right?
[299] Like, one of those things is going to happen at some point.
[300] And so it could be happening.
[301] And I think that he is, speaking of bubbles, I do think he's in his Mar -a -Lago bubble, and it does feel like he's losing his feel.
[302] And so maybe if he gets out there and is doing rallies again, you know, and kind of doing the crowd work where he actually has some candidate skills, you know, that'll change.
[303] But I don't know.
[304] He's made some misses.
[305] He played this really poorly.
[306] He had this thing locked up.
[307] If he had made a few moves differently in the past five months, he had a renomination locked up, and he's been his own worst enemy.
[308] So what would he have done to have lucked up the nomination?
[309] What are somebody...
[310] He didn't have to pick all these fucking losers.
[311] For starters.
[312] There was no obligation to pick everybody in all these primaries and to interfere.
[313] He could have just sat out some of them, right?
[314] You know, he didn't have to push people through.
[315] He could have been positioning himself as J .V. So others have suggested this as anti -Mitch and anti -Kevon and talked about how poorly they're running these campaigns, right, rather than anticipating that everybody's going to win and thank him, right?
[316] He didn't have to be out on the campaign trail the last week.
[317] I mean, it's his party, right?
[318] So it has been.
[319] And so had he campaigned with Ron DeSantis instead of weirdly snubbing him, right?
[320] I mean, had he just kind of laid back and done what a relatively normal ex -president did and, you know, helped the guys that won primaries and then, you know, see where the chips fall.
[321] He could have come out this week and said, hey, Mitch McConnell cost you guys.
[322] You only win when I'm on the ballot.
[323] And I'm back, baby.
[324] and I think that he would be a very formidable, maybe even insurmountable candidate.
[325] That by putting his stink on all these guys and coming away as the one who's blamed for all this, while Ronda Sanders wins by 20, he's opened the door.
[326] Yeah, and that is grinding him.
[327] You know, I think he was counting on the, you know, heads Trump wins, you know, tails Trump wins too.
[328] Whatever happens, if the GOP wins, we take credit for it.
[329] If the GOP lost, he could point the finger.
[330] That didn't work out for him because, as you point out, stink is just all over this campaign.
[331] And so he says something was very interesting that, you know, he could have swept the field.
[332] That may be one of the most significant things of this week.
[333] He comes, the former president announces big event, and he doesn't clear the field, does he?
[334] It doesn't happen.
[335] The fact that not many people, you know, of the quote -unquote establishment or even of the influencers showed up at the event was kind of a tell, a fact that he clearly didn't have the wind at his back that that he thought he was going to get out of the the midterms he's getting blowback some real blowback for his jibes against glen yonkin and rand de sanctimonias you know he's used to everybody thinking how well how clever you are boss that these are the smartest things you will totally crush them and in fact he's finding out that that he's not getting that kind of feedback and then he does this speech that is uh you know universally panned and i think fed into the, you know, this narrative that is he passed it, is it time to turn the page?
[336] And worst of all, he did not dominate the news cycle the way he thought.
[337] What do you think about that Murdoch front page in the New York Post?
[338] Florida, man. You know, Charlie, I know we're never going to get this, but like, I could have used a whoops from Murdoch World, like a, hey, we're not going to do this again, you know, to move from being a propagandist for him to trying to kill him and then everybody just kind of giving them credit for it.
[339] I just, that's hard for me. It's hard.
[340] You know, it's hard for me to do.
[341] I maintain some bitterness.
[342] And maybe, I know that it's probably my darker angels, but I just, I maintain some bitterness over it.
[343] But it's meaningful, but I maintain some bitterness.
[344] Well, the good news, of course, is that National Review has now decided that it's going to stand athwart history and saying, no, no, this time we mean it.
[345] No, we really mean it this time.
[346] No. So weird.
[347] They're all mad at me on Twitter for making fun of this.
[348] I'm just like, just own it, guys.
[349] Just own it.
[350] You've been Trump curious for the ever since the against Trump issue.
[351] You know, there have been times where you said nice things.
[352] There been times where you said mean things.
[353] That's fine.
[354] You call it said it's a determent.
[355] We're calling it balls and strikes.
[356] Okay, I said to the start.
[357] I don't think he's on the field.
[358] Okay.
[359] I'm not calling balls and strikes.
[360] on him.
[361] Everything is a strikeout for me. You don't got to hand it to him at any point.
[362] You don't have to put on your cover the case for the Trump presidency like the National Review did.
[363] So I just, I don't know why these guys are also defensive about the reality.
[364] But hey, if everybody wants to come over to never Trump world right now, that's fine.
[365] The water's warm.
[366] I welcome them.
[367] It would be nice.
[368] The welcoming would be a little warmer if they just said you were right before they came over.
[369] The welcome would be with a hug.
[370] But instead now, I'm going to kind of have to welcome them with a little bit of a cold shoulder at first and get a couple drinks in me before that they're allowed into the party.
[371] But that's fine.
[372] Everybody's welcome.
[373] I will say this, though.
[374] All these people were against him in 2016, too.
[375] So I just, I also don't, I also don't love kind of the whole like, oh, we're the power brokers here.
[376] And, oh, some of the big donors and Fox and the National Review.
[377] All you guys live in New York.
[378] All right.
[379] Like, none of you people were for Trump the first time.
[380] So I, I just, I think everybody should just hold their horses on discussing the great meaning of all this.
[381] Though we welcome all converts and just let's see what them, what them people want.
[382] Okay.
[383] And, and so, you know, when I first started hearing people that were like, hey, I was, you know, Sarah's going to go do some focus groups.
[384] You know, when we, you can listen to them on Bullwark Plus, worth every penny.
[385] And if we listen to the first focus group and it's like, man, I was with Donald Trump in 2016.
[386] I went to every rally.
[387] I wore a red hat, but I'm sick of them.
[388] That is going to intrigue me a lot more than Rich Lowry's ninth flip -plop on this guy, okay?
[389] Like that, I think that is going to be the much more meaningful thing, and that's a little bit of a wait -and -see for me. Well, and I think that's why Trump himself, obviously, he's feeling so threatened by Ron DeSantis, because Ron DeSantis gives that crowd pretty much everything without the crazy, without the baggage, without the indictments, without being, you know, 80 years old and all of that stuff.
[390] so that's uh that but the thing about it is that i don't think that he has cracked the code of how to take him down i mean there is there is a code i mean there is something that trump will do to ronda sandas i don't think he's figured it out quite yet right i mean he's attacking ronda sandas is not the same as ted cruiser marco rubio because quite frankly they didn't have the kind of you know emotional bond with the base and the credibility and politics was different then and so he could rip Ted Cruz, and there was no massive blowback to all of that.
[391] But DeSantis, the unconfident, not landing in the same way.
[392] People were pretty protective of their Marco.
[393] Okay, I lived through the 2016 campaign.
[394] People in the conservative media were pretty protective of their precious on Marco, and that didn't, Marco ended up folding.
[395] Now, maybe DeSantis is stronger than Marco and has a deeper well of support.
[396] At least he has somewhat of a deeper well support now.
[397] how much I think remains to be seen.
[398] So I think both of these guys will have a ton of time to talk about this, but the short of it for me is I think neither of them have demonstrated that they know how to take the other one out yet, right?
[399] And DeSantis hasn't actually made any punches on Trump.
[400] I think he's hoping he digs his own grave.
[401] And I think that'll be the case for probably three, four months.
[402] But eventually, if he wants to run, he's going to have to get in.
[403] And there's a lot of things, a lot of landmines that everybody stepped on in 2016, that he's going to have to avoid when it comes to being on a camp.
[404] against Trump.
[405] You know, he hasn't had to talk about January 6th.
[406] He hasn't, we haven't talked about the House yet.
[407] I hope we have a little time talking about the House.
[408] Every time some lunatic in the House says, we're going to investigate, you know, like the FBI and how the, how it's too woke.
[409] And the Libs have taken over the FBI.
[410] We're going to defund the FBI.
[411] And Trump's like, yeah, defund the FBI.
[412] Well, what does, is that, is DeSantis going to be for that?
[413] Right.
[414] That's just one example, right?
[415] Every crazy thing that comes up, is DeSanta's going to be for it?
[416] Yep, I think he's going to stay as close ideologically as possible.
[417] You're not going to be able to be more anti -woke than he is.
[418] You know, Trump comes up with creative things, right?
[419] And where's DeSantis on the summary execution of drug dealers?
[420] You know what I mean?
[421] The next Muslim ban that comes out, right?
[422] Eventually, all that stuff.
[423] He's going to have to say something.
[424] Yeah, he's going to have to address all that stuff.
[425] And can he do that?
[426] Can he go head to head with Trump?
[427] I don't, you know, I don't, TBD on all that.
[428] And it's a slippery slope.
[429] And look at Mike Pence, right?
[430] You know, you get on the wrong side of Trump.
[431] the wrong issue one time and you go down that slide and you go from 40 % potential support to eight you know that's a challenge coin he's going to have to prove that he can win and he hasn't had to yet yeah and listen to you i'm thinking of it if i'm donald trump what what is the one thing that would drive a dagger you know make him endorse january 6th make him take a stand on the insurrection by saying and trump has already done this you know that that not only was it not a crime it was a patriotic the act and i will i will pardon every single one of them on day one of my presidency?
[432] What will what will Rhonda Santas do?
[433] Just force him to take a position.
[434] Pardon the insurrectionists?
[435] That's a great question.
[436] And then you get on this tightrope, you know, where it's like, what do I do?
[437] Do I go full crazy with Trump in order to keep my position and keep going further and further down into Cary Lakeland where I can't win if I actually come out of this?
[438] Or do I try to risk challenging him and risk going down into Mike Pence land where nobody likes me anymore because I was too mean to Mr. Trump?
[439] That's all in front of him still.
[440] Okay, let's switch gears.
[441] Since we're talking about crazy, let's talk about the Congress, what Washington is going to look like over the next six months, one year or so.
[442] Rick Wilson tweeted out, imagine all the GOP house craziness you can.
[443] Now, magnify that insanity, and Loon Bucket Fuck Whittery by a billion, then transported to the pinnacle of Burning Tire Mountain as an endless cascade of clown cars into the radioactive waste dump at the peak.
[444] And I responded to him.
[445] And I believe you are understating the problem.
[446] So let's talk about this.
[447] On cue, day one, they have the majority.
[448] They roll out Jim Jordan and says, yep, we're taking on inflation.
[449] We're taking on the economy.
[450] No, we're going after Hunter Biden.
[451] I mean, what is this going to be like?
[452] Yeah, I'm going after Hunter.
[453] The people really care about Hunter.
[454] I only tell you, Charles, I've been out there.
[455] I was in Virginia, I was in Pennsylvania.
[456] I was in Arizona.
[457] I was in Washington State.
[458] All those trucks that's what they're talking about, right?
[459] Hunter, coming up, every hipster coffee shop.
[460] I get a little window into just how ugly it's going to be when I got invited to this Twitter spaces thing with Mick Mulvaney.
[461] And I'm going, you know, I usually would say no to something like this, but maybe I can have a little fun with Mick.
[462] And as it turned out, it was a very buttoned up Twitter space.
[463] And so I didn't have a lot of chance for back and forth with Mick.
[464] But one thing did come out of it that was useful.
[465] One of the people listening asked him what he expected from the new house majority.
[466] And, you know, he kind of gives some lip service to the economic stuff.
[467] And then it's like, but, you know, they're going to have to spend time on investigating the politicization of the FBI in the deep state.
[468] I'm going to interrupt you.
[469] I'm going to ask, what are you talking about?
[470] And he's like, well, you know, we're going to have to look into the unfair investigations of Trump.
[471] And it's like, Mick, who is the guy that said he quit over Trump, you know, who ostensibly is one of the normal ones who you know that Kevin McCarthy has on speed dial.
[472] Right.
[473] So if one of the, now this is not a compliment, you know, we're grading on a steep curve here, but if one of the most rational potential operators is suggesting that investigating the deep states, Trump treatment is one of the things that they plan on doing, imagine what Marjorie Taylor Green in the top of the tire fire, or whatever Rick was talking about.
[474] Imagine what those lunatics are going to want.
[475] The unfair treatment of the insurrectionists looking into Hunter Biden, a Fauci, you know at every event i went to every republican event i went to prosecuting fouchy is this huge applause line i just these guys you know have no idea where the middle of the country is they've learned nothing about from from this last midterm and kevin mccarthy is is like nowhere even in the ballpark of being strong enough to stand up to them and keep the caucus together so i mean if they were willing to learn from all of this they would be saying okay you know how can we address the you know the swing voters how can we reach out to these, you know, suburban voters that we have lost.
[476] You know, let's do, I don't know, an autopsy where we talk about how we broaden our appeal.
[477] This time around, unlike 2012, they're going to skip the autopsy and go right to rejecting every single possible lesson they could have taken from it, right?
[478] Did they're going to go?
[479] We had people who were really concerned about, you know, dinner table issues and the cost of gasoline.
[480] Let's spend all of our time doing these investigations of Hunter Biden.
[481] You have to be like on truth social to even know what they're talking about half the time.
[482] See, that's the thing.
[483] Nobody has any idea.
[484] I'm guessing that at very few focus groups, people say, well, okay, what I'm most concerned about is Hunter Biden?
[485] What do you want from your government?
[486] I want them to spend the next six months fighting over Hunter Biden.
[487] Not that the FBI subpoenas of Mar -a -Lago were a little too, you know, shaded and unfair, and I'm upset about people being shadow banned on social media.
[488] It's like, what do you, So what this means is they will do exactly what they ought to be rejecting, which is that rather than looking forward, they're going to be looking back.
[489] So, you know, despite all the people saying, well, we got to move on from election denialism, we got to move on from 2020.
[490] You know, the Marjorie Taylor Greens and the Jim Jordan say, fuck that.
[491] We are going all in on this stuff.
[492] I mean, I think I will be mildly surprised if they actually don't have a hearing on Barack Obama's birth certificate.
[493] At this point.
[494] yeah i i i don't think that there's any evidence or any path that they have learned anything from this and so and it's because they're in this echo chamber you know where their big constituents this is what they want you know and this is what gets them money on social media and low dollars so all the incentives from them are wrong and the only way to fight it is to have a strong leadership that says no you know in order for the good of the whole caucus i'm going to resist this inside the bubble, like, Republican, like, lunacy, and I'm going to focus on, you know, Pat, what was the advice we always give the Democrats over the last two years?
[495] And I suppose we've got to come up with some issues that divide the other side and unites your caucus.
[496] Well, let me tell you, you're not dividing the other side when you're investigating, like, crackpot conspiracies.
[497] The other side is, like, more of that, please.
[498] So, speaking of bubbles, you had a great rant on the next level podcast about Ben Shapiro.
[499] hero, right -wing influencer, one -time colleague of ours, who has now become obsessed with all things gay.
[500] And I thought it was interesting that the day before the vote on providing federal protection for same -sex marriages, he announced that anybody that voted in favor that doesn't belong in the Republican Party.
[501] And then promptly 12, a whole dozen senators voted in favor of this, a majority of Republican voters are in favor of this.
[502] 71 % of Americans believe that same -sex marriages should be regarded as valid.
[503] And here you have Ben Shapiro in his own world saying, no, what Republicans really ought to do is double down on this issue.
[504] So go on Ben Shapiro.
[505] I do have to say, I give him a little bit of credit, I guess.
[506] I mean, he seems to deeply, genuinely think is bad for society, for Disney to have a movie where two fictional characters are boys and they have a high school crush on each other and they're a little bit awkward about it and one of the boys' father is supportive.
[507] I mean, that offends him deeply.
[508] You really think that offends him deeply.
[509] I don't know what other explanation there is.
[510] He seems to be genuinely offended by this and worried about societal rot that might come from two high school boys wanting to kiss each other and getting the butterflies and having supportive parents.
[511] And so I just, I encourage him to just keep exploring that because I think that, you know, at one time, this would have made me mad, and I would have said, these are the people that are holding us back and preventing me from rights and preventing me for having happiness.
[512] But I think that he sounds completely detached from where American society is.
[513] I think that these guys are extremely out of touch with what actual real America wants when I was with Abigail Spanberger in the Virginia district.
[514] I was like, this is actually real America.
[515] You know, like the suburbs between Richmond and D .C. This is like the middle of the country, as far as demographically and economically, et cetera.
[516] And these people don't care about this.
[517] And if anything, they're downright supportive of kids being themselves and being supported by their families.
[518] And so if these guys want to be that out of touch with Real America and punish Disney over this, which everybody has to remember this, this was what was behind Ron DeSantis punishing Disney was the lesbian kiss in the Buzz Lightyear movie.
[519] So if they decide that that is what they want to do, I mean, at least they have an ethos, right?
[520] I mean, a lot of people just do anti -gay shit because they want to be dicks.
[521] And I think in Ben Shapiro's case, he has an ethos, and there's something to be said for that.
[522] Well, and also this is at the same time that, you know, folks in that world, I hope people are picking up the sarcasm here, because otherwise you're going to get a lot of email reaction at the same time, there's this whole, and by the way, you know, the worst people, in the world are these single lady skanks who are a bunch of, you know, horrors of Babylon, et cetera, which, of course, then does not encourage, you know, young men, the pen of people that hang on, you know, bends every word to go out and find one of these young ladies.
[523] So it is a bold political strategy to basically say, our new base is the in -cell community.
[524] We're very happy with the in -cell community and all you other people, we have some thoughts.
[525] go wrong for them.
[526] This is the bigger picture about all this, Charlie, which just shows you how it's not getting better.
[527] I'm doing all these events and people are always like, it's going to get better, right?
[528] The party, you know, after this.
[529] And the Trump thing in a weird way is like an easy cop out.
[530] You know, as an explanation for the midterms, because all of these guys have secretly blamed Trump in their private thoughts for seven years now, but couldn't say it.
[531] And so now they're able to say it because they had this moment where they might have a chance to finally get rid of him.
[532] But Trump was a symptom of all of this other stuff, right?
[533] It's like if the head of the Babylon B, who is the one doing the skank tweet you were talking about, and the head of the biggest Republican conservative media outlet, the Daily Wire, you know, and his cohort, Candice Owens, is out there defending Kanye.
[534] You know what I mean?
[535] So if the biggest media outlets that are serving the most people what they want to provide to them is you should be mad about a gay kiss and a Disney show and you should be defending Kanye because free speech rights means you can be anti -Semitic and we should blame all of our ills on the single women and the cat ladies, you know, because they aren't willing to have sex with me. Then like, what do you think the replacement of Trump is going to be?
[536] And this was my joke about next level on Ron DeSantis.
[537] It's like, do you want to run on this, Ron DeSantis, fine.
[538] Okay.
[539] No, Republicans will just be punished again.
[540] All right.
[541] This extremism in the middle of the country was upset with.
[542] Yeah, there was the acute problem of the threat to democracy.
[543] But it was all lumped into this kind of boiling pot of the, you know, a 10 -year -old girl that gets raped by her uncle has to go across state lines and this obsession over, you know, trans swimming meets and the litter boxes in the classroom and the vaccine conspiracies and the anti -gay.
[544] stuff and the anti -single women.
[545] Like, all that is wrapped up in that people in the suburbs just don't want that.
[546] They don't want it.
[547] And so, and I don't see how the Republicans can move away from it.
[548] It's like the easy thing to say, oh, we just get to Trump and all of our ills will be fixed.
[549] That's not true.
[550] This illness that underlines all that is the problem.
[551] And that actually seems to be metastasizing.
[552] Okay, let's make some news here on the podcast.
[553] All right.
[554] Because I have sources who are telling me that, and this is always something to keep an eye on, when certain people show up in certain people.
[555] places that you, Tim Miller, have been cited in New Hampshire.
[556] So, folks, is he running?
[557] I'm not going to rule anything out, Charlie.
[558] I mean, I'm just exploring.
[559] It was nice to be up in Manchester.
[560] There were some great supporters of the Bullwark.
[561] I was happy to see people come out and that our message is kind of resonating.
[562] I'm noticing that our message is resonating New Hampshire.
[563] People at the Institute of Politics, Neil Levec, and at St. Anselms, they said the crowd was bigger than a normal crowd.
[564] They didn't say it was the biggest crowd in history for the dinner.
[565] They did say it was bigger than the normal crowd that they get for political speakers.
[566] Tim was drawing big crowds in New Hampshire.
[567] Yeah.
[568] So I'm just saying, I'm going to continue to sort of discuss, talk with people and just sort of see what it is that they're interested in hearing about.
[569] And if our message Listen to the American people.
[570] Yeah, and of our message resonating, then we'll have to see what the future holds.
[571] I appreciate you bringing that up, Charlie.
[572] Okay, well, I'm glad that we were able to cover that.
[573] Tim Miller, enjoy your trip out east, and hope to talk to you soon.
[574] See you, Charlie.
[575] The Bullwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Siri.
[576] I'm Charlie Sykes.
[577] Thank you for listening to today's Bullwork podcast, and we'll be back tomorrow and do this all over again.