The Bulwark Podcast XX
[0] Happy Friday, and welcome to the Bullwark podcast.
[1] I'm Charlie Sykes.
[2] The rundown of the day's news in my morning newsletter morning shots are sort of, I'm trying to capture all the stuff that's going on at the same time in the last 24 hours.
[3] Biden pardons, thousands convicted of marijuana possession under federal law.
[4] And because I guess he didn't think he was making enough news.
[5] He also warned that the risk of nuclear Armageddon is the highest since the Cuban missile crisis.
[6] Hmm.
[7] Shouldn't have read that right before I went to bed last night.
[8] A proud boy.
[9] member pleads guilty to seditious conspiracy for his role in January 6th, which is a BFD.
[10] Federal agents see chargeable tax gun purchase case against Hunter Biden.
[11] Down in Georgia, the Fulton County prosecutor investigating Trump aims for indictments as soon as December and also in Georgia.
[12] Searching for a safe, unskeptical media space, Herschel Walker sought out the moisty bosom of Hugh Hewitt's hackery, and it did not disappoint.
[13] And then, of course, you had the story that Ben Sass is quitting the Senate with four years left on his term to become the new president of the University of Florida.
[14] We also got new jobs numbers this morning, indicating that the economy is still strong, underlining the Fed's problem in fighting inflation.
[15] So to talk about all of this, who better than my colleague, Bill Crystal.
[16] Bill, thanks for coming back on the podcast.
[17] Charlie, I'm sort of intimidated by that introduction.
[18] Do we have to cover 14 topics here with depth and intelligence and precision?
[19] That's going to be hard.
[20] Okay, so give me your take, though, on the president talking about the risk of nuclear Armageddon.
[21] There's an interesting divide.
[22] People saying, okay, you know, this is pretty clear -eyed warning where we're at here with Vladimir Putin pushed into the corner.
[23] obviously things going extremely badly in Ukraine versus people who are saying this is this is another Biden gap that he shouldn't be saying stuff like this.
[24] This is going to rattle the world.
[25] I also saw some speculation.
[26] Well, this is the president of the United States who may have more intelligence, which is even more worrying.
[27] So what do you, what do you make of this?
[28] Joe Biden basically saying, hey, you think things are bad?
[29] Actually, it's worse.
[30] Yeah, I guess I'm inclined, in these circumstances to think maybe presidents shouldn't.
[31] They're not sure they should just keep quiet.
[32] But maybe he really does feel that it's important to prepare people for the, I don't know, one in 10, one in 20 chance that Putin will do something extreme.
[33] And he's presumably has people in the U .S. government thinking through our options and plans to respond.
[34] So in that respect, maybe it isn't such a bad thing to get people to take seriously the threat.
[35] I hope it doesn't lead people to be intimidated, you could argue that Biden's sort of playing into Putin's hands a little bit by magnifying the nuclear card as if that sort of stops, should stop us from doing things.
[36] But on the other hand, we've done an awful lot.
[37] So, yeah, I guess I give, Biden's done a good enough job managing Ukraine that I give them the benefit of the doubt on this particular comment.
[38] So, as you know, I try to resist any sort of irrational exuberance, but the reports out of Ukraine and Russia in the last 24 hours are really kind of amazing.
[39] The stories about, you know, the stories about the dissension within the ranks of the Russian government, people confronting Vladimir Putin.
[40] It's not just now military bloggers who are ripping the military.
[41] You're actually having military officials.
[42] And these are not, you know, anonymous source stories.
[43] These are, you know, the New York Times story yesterday really brought the receipts.
[44] You know, military officials who had been appointed by Vladimir Putin suggesting the Defense Secretary should commit suicide.
[45] We have this big report in the Washington Post this morning, that Vladimir Putin was confronted, you know, by people within the government.
[46] You know, there's, there's real panic and real division in the Russian government.
[47] Of course, that's a closed box.
[48] We don't actually know.
[49] But what do you make of these reports?
[50] I spoke with someone in Central Europe yesterday who's working closely with the Ukrainians, and he says they think it's real.
[51] I mean, you know, you lose a war this badly and one that you've assumed you would win within a week, and whether you personally sort of let the country into without much consensus or much sense of a deed for it, among others in the elites, let alone the public, and you're at some risk, and I mean, history suggests that, and I think that would make sense.
[52] Obviously, Putin's beaten back an awful lot of threats in the past and is ruthless and clever in his way about this.
[53] But let me tie it into the nuclear discussion we just had a minute ago.
[54] I hope we are being, and I'm sure we are, doing our best to make sure that if Putin tries to use nuclear weapons, he doesn't succeed.
[55] I mean, that's to say we have a fair amount of ability probably to get into his chain of command, to disrupt it, to warn people in that chain that they will be held personally accountable if there's a use of nuclear weapons, whatever Putin says in the Kremlin.
[56] You know, there are ways, I just hope we're not, as I said, pretty sure we're not just watching this or hoping they were acting both on the nuclear threat.
[57] And then also to increase dissension and disruption in the ruling circles of Russia, of the Kremlin.
[58] Short term, you know, Putin could be replaced by somewhat equally nasty and dangerous in some ways.
[59] It could be even a more danger of a spasm, I suppose, in a sense, as he is on his way out.
[60] But it's got to be a good thing to have a dissent and dissension and disruption of Putin's own rule.
[61] And it offers some prospect of a happier future for Russia.
[62] to say nothing of them just leaving Ukraine.
[63] So it is amazing what Ukraine has done, what Zelensky is done.
[64] The degree to which other leaders have rallied to him, I struck the young prime minister of Finland, had an excellent comment at that European summit in Prague yesterday.
[65] Someone said, well, what's the off -ramp for Putin?
[66] And she said, you know, the off -ramp is to leave Ukraine.
[67] I mean, for all the talk about the decadence of liberal democracies and failures of leadership and all the problems we have, God knows we do.
[68] There are quite a lot of impressive younger leaders of liberal democracies.
[69] We have somewhat a pretty impressive older leader in our case, but maybe younger next generation will come along.
[70] So it sort of cheers me up a little bit about the future.
[71] You know, this is a good point because there are a lot of reasons to wring your hands about, you know, the decline or the decadence of, you know, Western democracy.
[72] But these prime ministers on the front line are really extraordinary.
[73] And I was struck by the same thing that you were, this very, very, very.
[74] young woman who is the prime minister of of Finland.
[75] I mean, Finland is right there.
[76] I mean, there's a long history of wars there.
[77] And she is just unblinking.
[78] The solid refusal to blink in any way is really impressive.
[79] And these are people with a lot to lose.
[80] And they know there's a lot to lose.
[81] And yet they're not shutting up.
[82] They're not putting their heads down.
[83] They are saying these things.
[84] And frankly, that is inspiring.
[85] Yeah, very much so.
[86] And Zelensky, obviously, is the first among equals in this.
[87] And, yeah, I really do wonder if the, I mean, it's terrible, the deaths and the tortures and the war crimes and everything else that Ukraine has gone through.
[88] And Russians have suffered too, of course.
[89] But in retrospect, Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the reaction to it, above all by the Ukrainians, but by the rest of us as well, could end up being a real inflection point, you know, a real moment.
[90] in the post -Cold War history and in some ways, a hopeful one for all, as I say, that no one wishes it to have happened.
[91] But so I do think it's, we're right in the middle of it.
[92] It's hard to judge, obviously.
[93] Things could go wrong or could just sort of peter out and to be another kind of episode, you might say.
[94] But it feels like 2022 could be a big year in that respect.
[95] Well, I just mentioned also that the Nobel Prize was awarded Friday morning to a trio of human rights defenders in Ukraine, Belarus.
[96] and Russia delivering another pointed international rebuke of president of Vladimir Putin in his war in Ukraine.
[97] So I think that that is positive.
[98] Okay, so from this deep substance that we've been talking about, Bill, I need you to explain something because I'm, you know, usually I kind of have a sense of what's going on or I understand or I think I can understand the context or I could Google it in a few minutes and, you know, things will become clear.
[99] I need you.
[100] to explain to me something that, a tweet from the House Judiciary GOP last night.
[101] You saw this, right?
[102] I did.
[103] Okay.
[104] Now, this is not a super PAC.
[105] This is not the Federalist.
[106] This is the official Twitter account of Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee.
[107] And the tweet is just three words.
[108] Kanye Elon Trump Bill Help me here What's going on You know it's some clever person On the staff there Of the House Republicans Who got bored with You know Planning the investigation of Hunter Biden For next year And decided to be cute on Twitter I don't know I guess they're all three I guess Kanye was on Tucker Carlson's show And Elon Musk has been Pro Trump in various ways pro -putin in various ways, which fits into being pro -Trump.
[109] So those are the three...
[110] We're supposed to be...
[111] We are triggered, so...
[112] But, I mean, winking, blink, and nod, just you don't even...
[113] Yeah, I know, these are the three people they look up, too.
[114] I guess, I mean, that's in a way...
[115] Moe, Shep, what, I'm...
[116] Yeah.
[117] They're the three stooges, the three witches.
[118] I was thinking of the Tinker Evers' chance, you know, for those of...
[119] It's, yeah, we should all play games now.
[120] We should all think of trios that we sort or, you know, that we like to mention.
[121] But I don't know.
[122] What coincide?
[123] I mean, it's like every time you think these people are, well, whatever.
[124] Well, listen, speaking of these people, watching what's happening down in George is a little bit with the, like, the fascination of watching a car crash involving clown cars.
[125] But Herschel Walker goes on Hugh Hewitt show yesterday and spins himself this word salad.
[126] He's then asked by reporters about the reports that, of course, you knew the woman whose abortion you paid for because she's the mother of one of your children.
[127] and we get a lot of argy -bargle, you know, there's so many questions that now actually feel, will this make a difference?
[128] Is this going to make a difference in the election?
[129] So what do you think at this point?
[130] I mean, Republicans at least nationally, and I'm not sure what's going on with the Georgia Republicans who are close and may know what this is the next shoe to drop, national Republicans are all in national right to life, all in.
[131] anecdotally would seem as if Republican voters, Christian evangelical pro -lifers, just don't have a problem with the fact that Herschel Walker urged his girlfriend to get an abortion, lied about it, and is about to go to the U .S. Senate.
[132] What do you think?
[133] Yeah, it is manifestly unqualified to be a senator.
[134] I mean, just to begin with that.
[135] So I think it'll hurt some, and I think that, you know, I think you already was probably behind a bit.
[136] And, you know, if you pry off 5 % of Republican voters, maybe they don't all vote for Wardock, and then vote for Warnock, half of them just skipped that line of the ballot.
[137] They vote for Kemp for governor and then just skip the Senate race.
[138] That could take a three -point race to a five - or six -point race, and that may be what we end up with.
[139] I'm very struck by the reaction, though, of the Republican establishment, the conservative establishment, conservative elites.
[140] You and I remember we were both at the weekly standard then in 2017 when stories came out about Roy Moore as he was running for the Senate in the special election in Alabama.
[141] So I looked this up quickly yesterday.
[142] It was like, didn't trust my memory, but I sort of thought that people did disavow him and chastise him.
[143] And some people even said he should step aside.
[144] So it turns out Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, the Republican leaders of the Senate and the House, both called on him to step aside because of the allegations.
[145] The senatorial committee cut off its funding for at least a while.
[146] Lots of conservative, but not all, conservative magazines and so forth, criticized war and said this is unacceptable or at least lamented the situation.
[147] I called on him to make all the facts more available.
[148] I don't remember what national rights of life did and so forth, but there was at least some sense that, oh, my God, this is really bad, and this has to call to question our normal party loyalty and ideological preferences.
[149] What's so striking is that it's almost exactly five years later, right, is almost none of that, almost none of that.
[150] It took 12 hours, Republican senatorial NRC, the PAC that supports Republican Senate candidates and Mitch McConnell's own PAC.
[151] We're all in, doesn't matter.
[152] And then every conservative, virtually, did you think, every conservative leader, every Trumpist, and even a lot of the anti -anti -Trump types, well, look, it doesn't matter.
[153] He's a flawed person, but we need the vote, and that's what it's all about.
[154] So the degree of degeneracy, to use a word of Lincoln's that I like in this context of the Republican Party, the degree to which that's progressed over the last five years is pretty striking.
[155] In early Trump years, there was still some sense of, ooh, my, this is kind of bridge too far.
[156] You know, Trump was himself problematic.
[157] Maybe that was exceptional.
[158] we can't just have this be the norm.
[159] This is the norm.
[160] They do not care.
[161] No, and this is a really interesting point.
[162] And I was asked this question last night.
[163] Would Roy Moore have been elected in this election cycle?
[164] And I agreed with your take on this, that yes, I think absolutely he would because you have seen the acceleration of this degeneracy.
[165] For people who think it's always been like this, no, I am old enough to remember, as are you, when Todd Aiken was the Republican nominee in Missouri.
[166] And he said, something stupid and offensive about rape.
[167] Remember back then?
[168] Now, again, that was a closely divided Senate.
[169] The seat was very, very important.
[170] Republicans really wanted to win that seat.
[171] They thought they were going to win that seat and beat Claire McCaskill.
[172] And yet, after Todd Aiken said what he said about abortion and about rape, they bailed on him.
[173] They, yeah, and, you know, they did bail on him.
[174] Then, fast forward, Roy Moore, just a few years ago, allegations of sexual.
[175] assault bridge too far but what you're seeing now i think is just sort of the complete forget it we're not even going to pretend go through the motions that it's about character or there's any standards whatsoever it this is all about you know winning and i mean look how do you look at herschal walker and i don't want to make fun or make light of mental illness issues but how do you look at him and say this man should be in the united states senate i mean leave aside the abortion allegation it's the accumulation it is the accumulated way holding guns to his ex -wife's head allegations of abuse the things that his son is saying out there you know about you know how what we know what an awful father he was etc this accumulation and yet national republicans are basically saying we don't we don't care about any of that we want control of the senate and and and they say it in these very blunt term we just want control of the senate and that's all that matters and just to add one think to your very good list there and Walker is whatever happened in the past he's currently lying about it I mean there's just no question I think you made this point in the newsletter he is lying and there's not even a sense of gee you know let's privately get Herschel to sort of say I feel bad about certain things that happened in my past but I've changed but I'm going to you know not going to keep on lying about the fact that I don't know who this woman is and so forth but he's lying he's having ridiculous press conferences and ludicrous interviews with you review it and the entire Republican establishment, okay, they're politicians.
[176] They want to win the Senate.
[177] But how about the conservative elites?
[178] I mean, we all made fun, as I recall, of a couple of conservative outlets that semi -defended Roy Moore, more than semi, perhaps, in 2017.
[179] The federalist was particularly egregious.
[180] But now, I don't know, I haven't followed National Review closely.
[181] I haven't seen the journal editorial page.
[182] I don't get the sense that anyone in conservatism, Inc. is saying this is a deal breaker or even I'm really going to chastise Herschel Walker.
[183] And incidentally, Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell for clearing the field for Herschel Walker, they're all just, you know, a little bit of grumbling.
[184] Gee, this might hurt our chances.
[185] That would be bad.
[186] And that's about it.
[187] Look, it's old now to see that, you know, it's all about winning in the partisan hackery and the tribalism.
[188] I still think it's rather striking to watch what groups like the national right to life are doing, which in theory has.
[189] have larger, deeper agenda.
[190] You would think that the national right to life would have a longer timeline.
[191] They would be thinking about what do we do to change people's minds, heart and minds, et cetera.
[192] And yet they clearly have also decided that they're going to embrace this hypocrisy full on.
[193] And I was looking for a piece by the pundit, formerly known as Alla Pundit, who has just a great piece over at the dispatch where he gets at the questions the pro -lifers have to ask themselves.
[194] You know, and he writes, you know, the problem with electing Republicans who don't practice what they preach on abortion is that it undermines the ability of pro -lifers to persuade, which is really, I think, the heart of it.
[195] It undermines your larger moral case, your moral authority.
[196] And let's face it, moral authority ought not to be squandered if you want to the National Right to Life Committee, right?
[197] No, totally.
[198] And I don't, I'll look up Halepundits.
[199] I can't get unused to calling him out of Alapun.
[200] I apologize.
[201] He now writes under his actual name, so I'll look for that.
[202] But also, my sense is, I haven't looked at every statement, that the pro -life leaders, the, you know, evangelical leaders and stuff, they don't even say, look, we deplore what Walker is alleged to pretty clearly did do.
[203] We think that's really bad, and we wish he would not have done it, and we wish he would be more honest about what he did.
[204] Having said all that, it's our judgment, the cause.
[205] of pro -life, the pro -life cause will be better served by having him in the Senate than Raphael Warnock.
[206] I don't think that's, you know, I wouldn't go there.
[207] That's on my view, but I mean, I think it wouldn't be a crazy thing to say.
[208] What's striking is they don't even say those first two or three sentences.
[209] They don't even deploy, I haven't really seen any criticism of Walker's behavior.
[210] And if you're a pro -life organization, maybe you should criticize someone who's paid for an abortion and now claims to be, you know, strictly pro -life before you get on to making your political calculations.
[211] I think it does huge damage.
[212] I think we've seen this since jobs, really.
[213] I mean, young people look at this, and they're maybe ambivalent, as a lot of intelligent people are, about abortion rights and how to draw lines and what the role of the state should be as opposed to persuasion, and they're unsure.
[214] They just see this behavior from the official pro -life organizations, the official social conservative organizations, the conservative elites, and they think it's all a fraud.
[215] It's all just hypocrisy, and why should they take this issue, an issue that should be taken seriously as a moral and choice, that why should we take it seriously?
[216] So I think it does real damage to the pro -life cause.
[217] All right, let's talk about Ben Sass.
[218] I voted my newsletter to sort of looking ahead of what's to come.
[219] But let's just take a moment to look back on, you know, Ben Sass, who probably had as much potential as anyone in the Senate to be a leader, a principal leader, to be the conscience of the Senate.
[220] And he had some great moments, but he also had some just really, you know, cringe -worthy awful moments.
[221] You know, you and I both remember when he, when he voted to uphold the, you know, clearly unconstitutional emergency order that, you know, Donald Trump used to shift money on the border.
[222] And then, of course, he went completely silent in 2019, one that coveted Trump endorsement tweet.
[223] He came around on the second impeachment conviction.
[224] but give me your thoughts on Ben's ass looking back.
[225] I mean, I got to know him some and I said met him a little bit when he was here in the Bush administration, but I got to know him a little one who's running for Senate in Nebraska.
[226] He was in a pretty tough primary, and I thought he was by far the most impressive of the candidates.
[227] This was 2013 -14, and I remember coffee a couple of times here in D .C. and talked about campaign strategy and issues and so forth, very interested in health care, which was a very big issue at the time immediately after Obamacare and prospects of repealing it.
[228] when the primary got elected in 2014, I was very pleased.
[229] I had, actually, I did one of those conversations I do, the conversations with Bill Crystal, with him after one of his books came out, maybe 2016, 17, the vanishing American adults.
[230] I think that was, that was maybe that one.
[231] So he was impressive.
[232] What's the phrase?
[233] You know, he could have been a contender, right?
[234] He could have.
[235] He could have made a real difference in American history.
[236] Well, I'm not sure if he would have, but he could have tried to make a real difference, and he didn't.
[237] And so I'm, yeah, I'm on the side.
[238] of being pretty critical of what he actually did.
[239] Fine, he doesn't want to be a senator anymore.
[240] A little unclear why he ran for re -election in 2020, that it is a six, he presumably knew it was a six -year term.
[241] I guess I have a slightly old -fashioned belief that absent medical issues and so forth, you're probably getting nominated for the cabinet or something.
[242] You should probably serve right your six -year term.
[243] But I guess being president of a major state university that he was a college president in some place he thinks he can make more difference.
[244] But he sacrificed a lot to get himself reelected he thought he had Trump support.
[245] He paid a huge price for it, didn't he?
[246] Yes, and that price doesn't go away.
[247] Now, it'll be interesting to see once he's out of the Senate.
[248] I assume he'll just be forward -looking.
[249] Everything's fine.
[250] There's nothing he could have done that he didn't do, you know.
[251] I assume that'll be the attitude.
[252] Will he be honest?
[253] I mean, will he say, you know what?
[254] I regret not having done certain things.
[255] You students at the University of Florida, I hope you honestly face up to some of these choices maybe better than I did under all the pressures I faced.
[256] I think it's unlikely that he will say that.
[257] Well, I delivered most of my piece this morning to looking ahead at the challenge that he's going to face the test he's going to face down in Florida.
[258] It is kind of interesting.
[259] And I certainly can understand why you would want to get out of, you know, the toxic swamp of the Republican Senate caucus so that you don't have to, you know, have lunch with Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley and maybe Hershawker and Dr. Oz, et cetera, in the future.
[260] But he really has now dropped himself into the middle of the Maga snake pit of Florida.
[261] I mean, this is a state that is ultra maga.
[262] The legislature is the folks that are making the decisions about the University of Florida.
[263] And Florida is really distinctive at the moment because of the very, very aggressive state action, legislative action, targeting academic freedom.
[264] Now, I just want to make it clear.
[265] Look, I understand that there's a two front war being fought on academic freedom.
[266] I've written books about this.
[267] I understand that there are folks on the left who have also challenged academic freedom.
[268] I've written extensively about the speech codes and the cancel culture and the stifling intellectual environment coming from the left.
[269] That's a real thing.
[270] But in Florida, the real distinctive nature of the attack on academic freedom is it is coming from coercive state action.
[271] Law is passed by the legislature, signed by Ron DeSantis, and have been, you know, attacked by organizations that you and I are quite familiar with, you know, like fire, the, you know, free speech organizations, federal judges have thrown it out saying it violates the First Amendment.
[272] I'm going to be very interested to see how Ben Sasse handles this issue, whether he stands up to Ron DeSantis or whether it turns out that he's going to be Rand DeSantis's water boy in this one.
[273] Yeah, or something in between where he kind of vaguely says, of course, he believes in, you know, diversity of viewpoints of free speech, but of course the real problem is to the left entirely.
[274] And so, you know, he's going to make sure there are some conservative to professors, which will be fine at the University of Florida?
[275] But will he explicitly say, you know what?
[276] Professors should have the right of free speech, including professors at state universities.
[277] That's kind of what DeSantis and the legislature are suggesting, they're suggesting that they doubt.
[278] They're state employees.
[279] Will Benz asked, you know, what, if there's some 42 professors of English here and what or two of them are Marxists who have some Marxist interpretation of literature, that's fine.
[280] It's a big department.
[281] It's a big campus.
[282] I don't want 38 of the 42 to be Marxist.
[283] I don't want to discriminate.
[284] against non -Marxists and hiring.
[285] I don't want the Marxists to discriminate in their own classroom and grading against people who don't agree with them.
[286] And those are all perfectly good liberal education points to make.
[287] But will he really stand up for liberal education at the University of Florida?
[288] Well, and it really is a pretty clear choice.
[289] Look, I hope that he looks at what Mitch Daniels has done at Purdue.
[290] And this is the way a university president can be a significant leader on issues of higher education, speak out for free speech.
[291] But it's really going to be complicated in this Florida because of this, the Stop Woke Act, which really restrict what professors and teachers and universities, you know, can say about race and gender.
[292] You know, as Fire said, you know, this stretches beyond a constitutional prohibition on compelled speech.
[293] So he's going to have to take a position on this.
[294] And that's what's going to be interesting.
[295] So, I mean, you wonder whether he's picked for this because he's going to speak truth.
[296] to power because he won't.
[297] I mean, is he being chosen as the President of University of Florida because he's going to stand up for academic freedom or because he's going to provide cover for this attack?
[298] And again, this law is quite distinctive.
[299] And also, you mentioned this, the lawsuit that's going on right now.
[300] You have DeSantis who's appealing the federal judge's ruling saying it's unconstitutional to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals.
[301] And Florida is, is explicitly arguing that professors at public universities do not have a right to free speech when they teach.
[302] Now, that case is going to be one of the landmark, could be a landmark case in academic freedom.
[303] And here's Ben Sass, who is jumping from the frying pan of, you know, a deplorable Senate caucus to this right into the center of this fire.
[304] Yeah, I imagine it'll focus on, you know, I don't know, setting up a great books program.
[305] I know.
[306] education program.
[307] And also maybe online education.
[308] I think it's fine.
[309] Fine.
[310] And I'm actually in favor pretty big reforms in higher education.
[311] I hope he does change a lot of things.
[312] The system hasn't changed an awful long time.
[313] And it's antiquated in all kinds of ways and just efficient, costly, of course, and all that.
[314] The height of the Iraq war, I spoke at many colleges, universities actually, once or twice harassed and I had a python at me and shouted at and stuff.
[315] But mostly she did fine.
[316] But I would say what most impressed me, what I most remember about those times There's a couple of cases where spoken to New School in New York, very left -wing campus.
[317] And Bob Carey, the former Democratic senator from Nebraska, actually the same state, who was then president of the new school, came to my talk and introduced me, which was totally unnecessary.
[318] It wasn't, you know, he wasn't going to learn anything from my talk, and he was a busy guy and all this.
[319] But he went out of his way to be there and to remind students and everyone else that, you know, we believe in free speech.
[320] He may not agree with Bill, but listen to what he says respectfully, ask tough questions if you wish.
[321] And I remember thinking, that's impressive, right?
[322] He didn't have to do that.
[323] Will Ben's ass not just invite Harvey Mansfield with my teacher, who I hope he does, to speak at university, to give a distinguished lecture at University of Florida?
[324] Will he also, you know, invite some Michael Walser, another ex -professor, another ex -profess of Social Democrat, to give a talk.
[325] So apart from the legal side of it, I mean, what kind of spirit he conveys in terms of liberal education, I think, is important.
[326] Yeah, he has another chance.
[327] You know, Ben Sass has another opportunity to create a legacy.
[328] I mean, he could be a gigantic figure in higher education, but if he does not stand up to Ron DeSantis, he will be remembered as a very disappointing United States senator and very much a quizzling in higher education.
[329] I don't think he wants that.
[330] I really don't think that he wants that, but it's going to be very, very tough for him.
[331] So I want to ask you about a tweet you had this morning.
[332] because you were, you were feeling a little jiggy, feeling a little optimistic.
[333] So here's your prediction, your prediction.
[334] The modest GOP bare market rally over the last couple of weeks has subsided.
[335] The electoral playing field from now on either remains stable or the primary trend, which had been Democratic over the last three months reasserts itself and Democrats do well in November.
[336] All right, Bill, explain that because I have to admit to you, I am not seeing it.
[337] But go ahead.
[338] Tell me what you are seeing that I am not seeing.
[339] Maybe I'm just wishcasting.
[340] And here's what I'm reacting to.
[341] I'll put it this way, is I think an over interpretation of this minor Republican comeback over the last two, three weeks, a bit of a reversion to the norm for it off your election like this.
[342] And so the generic ballot, which had gone from Republican plus three almost and before Dobbs, went to Democratic plus two.
[343] Now it's more like Democratic plus one.
[344] And it's just an interesting intellectual and analytical question.
[345] Are we, is this, as I say, a bear market rally?
[346] That happens pretty often in these election cycles.
[347] And then the primary trend reasserts itself, or we just did a new, you know, stabilizes around where it is, or does the Republican comeback continue and the kind of red wave reappear?
[348] And I just think I've always been a skeptic, as you know, about the red wave.
[349] I think I was a little ahead of the curve in saying that people were overstating it six months ago and that the gap between the generic ballot and Biden's approval was striking Biden's of course, is now improved.
[350] So the gap's a little less striking, but still there.
[351] And I just look, I guess I have talked to enough people, spoken to enough people in different states and congressional districts, especially some of these House races, who've seen some polling.
[352] It's pretty good for Democrats.
[353] They're usually doing better than Biden did in 2020.
[354] And then they quickly say, understandably, but we're not, you know, maybe this is overstating our vote.
[355] Maybe the polls are getting it wrong.
[356] There's a hidden Trump vote.
[357] All that's possible.
[358] But I just think analytically people have overdone the Republican comeback.
[359] And the best example of that for me is everyone saying that the Pennsylvania Senate race is a toss -up.
[360] So I kind of kept reading that.
[361] I thought, I don't know.
[362] I'm just going to look at the polls.
[363] And so I just looked at 538 in real clear politics, just a list of polls, nothing, no, no deep analysis.
[364] And the polls are anywhere from Federman plus 3 to Federman plus 10 and grouped around, really, 4, 5, 6.
[365] So you can lose a race that you're ahead, five points in a month out.
[366] question.
[367] Foolish to assert that Federman's got unlocked up.
[368] On the other hand, erase your five points ahead in a month out is not a toss -off.
[369] But I just think the media has been so spooked, I think by 2020, the down -ballot stuff, by the undercounting of Trump votes, of course 2016 being the best example, by the sense that there's this hidden Trump vote out there, that they're overdoing Republican prospects right now, but I could be wrong.
[370] Yeah.
[371] I mean, I'm now probably a permanent skeptic after 2016, after 2018, after for 2020 because we've seen this what appears to be kind of a systematic undercount.
[372] But also part of this, you know, it tends to be that every once in a while you will have the media and Democrats fall in love with a candidate who has no shot of actually winning.
[373] And if you try to point that out there as blowback, I'm going to say something positive before I say something negative here.
[374] I continue to be impressed by Tim Ryan's Senate campaign in Ohio.
[375] I don't know whether he's going to beat J .D. Vance.
[376] Ohio has become a pretty red state, so he's got, he's got like a, you know, starts off with, what, an 8, 9, 10 point deficit.
[377] But that guy, in terms of, if we want to talk about messaging, it seems to really have found his stride.
[378] So it's going to be interesting in the after -action reports to look at the campaigns that were successful.
[379] And maybe even losing by one point would be considered successful in some level for Tim Rhyme versus the campaigns that have just crashed in.
[380] burned on the launching pad.
[381] No, I think that's right.
[382] I'm going to be in Ohio giving a talk actually in about 10 days, and I hope to spend, I don't know, how much you can learn, just hanging around and so forth, but I think I'll try to do a little bit of hanging around and maybe if there's an event nearby for one of the candidates or even a congressional candidate just to get a sense of the mood there.
[383] I would say just before you give me our negatively upside.
[384] You know what I'm going to say.
[385] My only analytical point, I guess I would make to bet but just by general kind of who knows and, you know, I think the media has been little too credulous by Republican claims I was bending more backwards to liberal media.
[386] My other is that people are underestimating, I think, the 2018 and then 2020 really changed the electorate from what it has been for decades in off -year elections in terms of 2018 and then 2020, obviously, a massive surge in presidential vote.
[387] The polls may be under missing Trump voters, missing Republican voters who are, you know, shy of posters and don't like talking to them and keep their thoughts themselves and then vote for the republican the polls could also be because of the voter screens they're using and so forth could be underestimating the democratic vote is they're assuming where it's 2014 all over again democratic president and uh or 2010 and uh you know the on off your election that we'll go against them we're going to get that kind of turnout so i that's the one thing point i i would is a sort of technical matter the polls are hard to judge they could be wrong either way i guess it's the point how it would make It's not just that they could be wrong and missing Trump voters.
[388] They can be missing younger voters who will turn out in 2022 as they did in 2018.
[389] And if they do, we could have a result, you know, a house that looks a little, Democrats could hold the Senate and could even hold the House.
[390] Well, can I mention as a point of personal privilege, my deep, deep disappointment and sort of soul -crushing take on what's happening here in Wisconsin because, and I know that people hate, you know, I told you so.
[391] And I really wish profoundly that I had been wrong about this.
[392] But, you know, Ron Johnson was the lowest of the low -hanging fruit for Democrats to pick off.
[393] That could have been the race that won them control of the United States Senate.
[394] There's so much baggage that Johnson had.
[395] His approval ratings were so low.
[396] And for months, I was saying, but Johnson can get reelected if you nominate somebody with as much baggage as Mandela Barnes.
[397] And because of all the wishcasting and because the Democrats have their own bubble, they decided, no, no, no, we're going to do it.
[398] It's not going to be so bad.
[399] It will be fine.
[400] And I was saying, well, wait, wait until you see the negative oppo ads.
[401] They drop on him.
[402] And, of course, what a shock.
[403] We are now seeing stories in places like the New York Times that Democrats are now fretting because this deluge of negative ads, particularly on the issue of crime, is crushing Mandela of Barnes.
[404] And they had to know it was coming.
[405] They did it anyway.
[406] And I'm sorry.
[407] I'm afraid an eminently winnable Senate seat is going to be out of reach very soon.
[408] And I think that political scientists should study what happened in Wisconsin for a very, very long time.
[409] And I hope the Democrats do a very clear ride after action postmortem on what happened here.
[410] I mean, we'll see what happens.
[411] Barnes seems to be behind and you've been right.
[412] And look, preferred Godluski, I think her name is, just knowing nothing about either candidate substantively, really, but just because - Sarah Godluski, is much more centrist.
[413] Her image was so much more moderate.
[414] She'd went statewide and run ahead of the ticket in 2018, I believe.
[415] And so, you know, I thought it was risky.
[416] And it just turned out to have been risky.
[417] Now, maybe Barnes will have something that would come back here.
[418] He's down two or three points.
[419] He's not down, you know, eight.
[420] So we'll see what, we'll see what happens.
[421] We'll see if they could hold the governorship while losing the Senate race.
[422] That is possible.
[423] Yeah, they're, they're could be a little more split ticket voting.
[424] I'm struck by that, looking at the polls for all the talk about the banishing split -ticket voter and everyone's just, you know, tribal.
[425] There's a lot of truth to that, obviously.
[426] You just look in real time at these polls in Georgia, Kemp's up, I don't know, average of six or so over Abrams, Warnax up, an average of four, let's say, over Walker.
[427] That's ten points, right?
[428] I mean, that's not a trivial number of people, five percent of the people switching from one party to the other, as I say in the real, in the same election day.
[429] So there's a little more split -ticket voting around than rhetoric would suggest, you know.
[430] I find that very, very interesting.
[431] You know, Sarah Longwell did her focus group in Georgia last night, and most of the people that she was talking to were going to vote for Brian Kemp, the Republican over Stacey Abrams, and yet the same group, almost every one of them said they were going to vote, all but one, we're going to vote for Warnock, incumbent Democrat Warnock, over Herschel Walker, which would indicate a lot of split -ticket voting in Georgia.
[432] There's a possibility of that in Wisconsin as well, because the Republican candidate, Tim Michaels is he's got a lot of bagged he's got a lot of baggage shoe but I have to tell you I mean here it is just back to back to back to back to back attack ads on Barnes and they in the coming from both the Johnson campaign from outside money a lot of them have to do with crime crime's a big issue here and right now this is also taking place at the time when they're the trial of the guy who was responsible for that Waukesha Christmas Parade Massacre is ongoing.
[433] I mean, this guy's on trial, and I got to tell you, Bill, this story.
[434] Okay, so the reason it's a big issue, I think we talked about this before on the podcast, is because he was out on a ridiculously low bail.
[435] And so, you know, bail and liberal prosecutors has become a big issue.
[436] Mandela Barnes is all in on eliminating cash bail.
[437] You know, I said he would, he would support it, has long record of, you know, being, you know, There shouldn't be bail.
[438] It should make it easier to get out of jail.
[439] Anyway, whatever.
[440] So people turn on their news, and they're getting just all of these ads about crime, which are working in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
[441] At the same time, they see the news reports about this guy who killed all these people in Waukishaw while he was out on bail.
[442] He's defending himself in the case.
[443] And if you Google the Wau trial, he's showing up basically in boxer shorts with no shirt on cross -examining the witnesses.
[444] And, I mean, it is just this incredible sort of circus, just deplorable circus.
[445] So the issue is front and center right now.
[446] It's the worst possible moment, et cetera.
[447] So anyway, it's discouraging to me that there's so much resistance to the voices.
[448] And I devoted a lot of time this week talking to, you know, Ruiz Tashara, warning to the Democrats.
[449] Look, if you want to win these races, you have to appeal.
[450] to voters who want to think that you are moderate and centrist on issues like crime, et cetera.
[451] And in Wisconsin, at least in the Senate race, they're not doing that.
[452] So, yeah, I mean, look, I think it's a mistake.
[453] And I think if you talk to someone like the two Democratic members of Congress from Virginia who are in tough races and close districts, Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria, they would say they have tried very hard to make clear they're not the same.
[454] I mean, they don't criticize Barnes personally, but that they come from a different wing of the Democratic Party.
[455] If you step back, you could say there's a fair number of moderate Democrats at one primaries this year and are running reasonably moderate campaigns.
[456] But look, these states are different and these candidates are different.
[457] And obviously, we're only talking a few percentage points here of a swing.
[458] And it turns out, Federman's the progressive candidate, but he has a different feel than Barnes, right?
[459] I think so.
[460] It's also different from Wisconsin and stuff.
[461] And so his opponents maybe is not an incumbent senator, obviously.
[462] So all these things make a difference.
[463] And so, yeah, but I look generally, I couldn't, I totally agree.
[464] Very important for Democrats as much as they can.
[465] I mean, they have their own voters and their own primaries and Barnes' lieutenant governor.
[466] He wasn't sort of like crazy that he would win the nomination.
[467] But very important for them as much as they can to nominate candidates who could win.
[468] And also, I think from your point of view and my point of view, candidates who are more sound on some of these issues and resist some of the progressive nostrums.
[469] So around the country, are there any other races that are sort of below the radar screen?
[470] I mentioned back in 2018 Democrats got themselves all worked up over races.
[471] They thought that were winnable that turned out not to be winnable at all, like in South Carolina, et cetera.
[472] But what do you make of some of the polls out of North Carolina where Democrats are always sort of lucy with the football?
[473] Is it possible that is that in play?
[474] Is Utah, which nobody really is talking about except for people like us?
[475] is, I mean, are there things that are sort of out of our frame of vision that might actually turn out to be a BFD?
[476] Yeah, so that's a very good question.
[477] That's one reason I did that little tweet this one.
[478] I mean, if you just come down from Mars and look at the numbers, Nevada looks like a Democratic state that could go Republican.
[479] Yeah, that looks bad.
[480] Yeah, that looks like a Republican state that could go Democratic.
[481] Now, it has, they keep, you know, never quite works out in North Carolina and the most frustrating state for Democrats probably in the last 15 years repeatedly.
[482] So maybe it won't, and it probably won't.
[483] But I do wonder about North Carolina, Ohio, I think, is the other one that everyone kind of vaguely assumes can't come through at the end.
[484] But there, I think they're just overdoing it.
[485] I mean, there is the actual other senator from Ohio was a Democrat.
[486] I mean, it's like, wow, it's just amazing if the Democrat could win the Senate seat.
[487] So could Ryan do what Brown has done?
[488] It's possible against a flawed candidate.
[489] I think Utah is very interesting.
[490] We don't, that's an interesting case study, sort of the opposite of Barnes, where the Democrats, to their credit in Utah.
[491] He didn't nominate anyone once our friend Evan McWallan was able to get himself on the balance and the dependent and make clear he was going to be able to mount a credible challenge to Mike Lee.
[492] He's raised more money than Lee in the third quarter.
[493] Lee's, there's a huge influx now of outside spending to save Lee.
[494] Again, ultimately, ultimately, if you had to bet, you know, you figure Lee probably makes it by four or five points or maybe even a little more.
[495] But I don't think that's a done deal.
[496] And let's see what happens, what the dynamics are out there.
[497] So these states are different.
[498] Here's where I've been putting it for the last 20 years, really, maybe 30.
[499] The people who said demography is destiny, these states will revert to their fundamental affiliation at the presidential level, and that will drive everything else, you know.
[500] And so don't bet on some attractive candidate who looks attractive at a red state, some blue, you know, democratic candidate or vice versa.
[501] They're just not going to make it.
[502] And that, and people like me said, I don't know, candidates matter, you know, these don't be so deterministic.
[503] I was wrong.
[504] They were right.
[505] The deterministic types were right.
[506] But maybe that's sort of run its course, or I'm not run its course, but maybe that's been overdone almost analytically.
[507] So people don't even look at Utah.
[508] And you see polls, I mean, legit, authentic, non -push polls, and they're, I don't know, a two -point gap between Lee and McMullen.
[509] He's like, oh, it looks kind of competitive to be an incumbent who's at 47 and isn't putting away his challenger.
[510] And then no, no, no, it's Utah can't happen.
[511] So I think there's even some of these of Oklahoma, well, there's some weird things going on in some of these states.
[512] So I'm, and it could happen the other way, too, incidentally.
[513] They could be Republicans who win.
[514] We've seen that in 2020, right in the Rio Grande Valley.
[515] So we're Republicans competitive or won, you know, seats that everyone would assume we're Democratic forever, you know.
[516] So there's a more malleability, I would say, than perhaps the conventional wisdom has it.
[517] Well, we're just going to have to buckle up for the next few weeks.
[518] Bill Crystal, thank you so much for coming back on the podcast.
[519] We always appreciate it.
[520] Thanks, Charlie.
[521] I really enjoyed it.
[522] The Bullwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Siri.
[523] I'm Charlie Sykes.
[524] Thank you for listening to today's Bullwork podcast, and we'll be back tomorrow and do this all over again.