The Bulwark Podcast XX
[0] Welcome to the Bullwark podcast.
[1] I'm Charlie Sykes.
[2] It is the morning after, and I think I just told A .B. Stoddard, this will be our first three and a half hour podcast because we have so much to talk about and quite frankly to wallow in.
[3] So first of all, thanks for joining me on the morning after a truly remarkable and rather unexpected election.
[4] Charlie, it's an honor to be invited to join you.
[5] I was prepared for our drunken post -blood bath.
[6] sob session.
[7] And I girded myself.
[8] I prepared for days.
[9] And it's a very strange feeling that we might be able to only, only, only sometimes have nice things.
[10] Well, that's right.
[11] And, you know, I had actually planned certain, you know, post -mortems and everything.
[12] But, you know, as I tweeted last night right before I fell asleep about 1 o 'clock in the morning, I posted something like conventional wisdom under construction.
[13] Pardon any inconvenience here.
[14] Because we're all throwing out our hot takes, all the conventional wisdom.
[15] The whole hive mind has to certainly, like, move in a different direction and, you know, all of the, you know, detail, will the Democrats learn the right lesson from this?
[16] Okay, so let's, we have a lot of big picture stuff to talk about.
[17] Let's start with highlights and low lights.
[18] It's always more fun to start with the low light.
[19] So low light for you from last night's election.
[20] Really disappointed that Tim Ryan lost the Senate race.
[21] I knew there were going to be Ryan DeWine split -ticket voters in Ohio, but it's a deeply red state, and it was going to be very hard for him to defy the odds.
[22] And I'm really disappointed that Elaine Luria lost in Virginia.
[23] Yeah, those are two good ones.
[24] You know, I had to say that, you know, J .D. Vance going to the United States Senate is certainly one of them, Luria going down.
[25] The fact that I've said this over and over again, the fact that Herschel Walker is even remotely close to the United States Senate continues to be a low light.
[26] But highlight, can I go first with my highlight?
[27] Yes.
[28] Because I could spend the entire podcast talking about this.
[29] It looks like Lauren Bobert is going to lose her seat in Colorado, which nobody saw.
[30] Lauren Bobert is going to go down.
[31] Now, it is possible because I don't know how the votes come in that she might be able to pull it out, but just saying it makes me feel better.
[32] The one thing we know for sure, though, is that Sarah Palin has now been defeated for Congress in Alaska twice in one year.
[33] year.
[34] I mean, let's just, can we meditate upon that for a moment?
[35] It's really a badass and else get.
[36] But to get on my procedural high horse, I'm a huge evangelizer of Final Five and Final Four voting.
[37] And I just am so excited that Alaska adopted it.
[38] And it's a process that rejects extremists and promotes moderates.
[39] This is not the part of the podcast where we go into some wonky discussion of rank Choice voting.
[40] This is the part of the podcast where we engage in some serious schadenfreude about Sarah Palin being defeated.
[41] Okay, sorry, Sarah.
[42] You had it coming.
[43] And my other highlight, on a more positive note, Abigail Spanberger being re -resolved.
[44] Liz Cheney actually turned out to have a pretty good night.
[45] She endorsed Alyssa Slotkin in Michigan and Abigail Spanberger, and they both won, which was incredibly good news.
[46] So what's your highlight?
[47] Yes, very exciting.
[48] So my sort of macro most important priority, as I got my head together this morning, was Florida is not a swing state.
[49] I don't believe in 2024, upset about Nevada, worried about Arizona, but that in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, we have people who are going to certify the presidential election in 2024, no matter how it turns out, and I trust Brian Kemp to do the same in Georgia.
[50] So in terms of the constitutional order, many, many bad things could have happened last night that didn't happen.
[51] And I think that those governorships in critical swing states are really, really important.
[52] And the Secretary of State's election.
[53] I mean, a lot of election deniers did win last night.
[54] But voters apparently drew the line about putting an election denier in the position of actually running elections.
[55] So they appear to have gone down.
[56] And kind of remarkably, those guardrails seem to have held.
[57] We don't know what's going to happen in Arizona.
[58] but, I mean, Tim Michaels lost in Wisconsin, Tudor Dixon lost in Michigan, Doug Mastriana, goes down in Pennsylvania, Darren Bailey in Illinois, Dan Cox, in Maryland.
[59] You know, all across the country, you had these Trumpist candidates going down.
[60] So let's talk about big picture.
[61] I want to get to the whole DeSantis Trump thing because, of course, there's a lot of a hot take punditry about that.
[62] People are revising everything, and I want to get to the pulsating hell that awaits Kevin McCarthy, if you become.
[63] comes speaker, but what do you think happened here?
[64] You know, did the polls get it wrong?
[65] Was it the hive mind of, you know, conventional wisdom that overcorrected for the misses in 2016, 2018, in 2020?
[66] What happened that turned the red wave into the red drizzle?
[67] Right.
[68] So I didn't listen to one exit poll last night.
[69] I didn't listen to one this morning and I won't in the weeks to come.
[70] I don't care where they come from.
[71] I'll never listen to those.
[72] again.
[73] And I also don't listen to data, you know, within 72 hours or even, you know, seven days.
[74] I tend to look at post -election assessments kind of before Christmas time or in the new year because I don't think that they're correct until then.
[75] Those deep dyes take a while.
[76] And so I don't really take that data to the bank until it's a few months later.
[77] But my feeling, Charlie, I don't know.
[78] Is Mark Fincham going to lose in Arizona?
[79] Is Marshaun going to lose?
[80] Is Marshaun going to lose?
[81] in Nevada.
[82] I don't know about all the Secretary of State races yet, so I'm not entirely calm about whether or not Americans went to the polls to protect democracy.
[83] I saw John Anzolone on Twitter this morning saying, but for Gen Z, it would have been a red wave.
[84] And he's Biden's pollster.
[85] And that's very sobering.
[86] And I think the Democrats need to understand that, that it might not have been that people voted for democracy.
[87] I don't know if the kids were voting for democracy.
[88] I think what we saw was a bunch of young people turn out about abortion and save the Democrats.
[89] And if that's true, they just have to really step back and think about the liabilities they have that remain.
[90] And then Republicans have to step back and think, wow, up against 40 -year inflation and an unpopular president in what was supposed to be a wave year, abortion is really going to screw us in 2024 if we don't get our acts together.
[91] And then the last part is, yes, of course, the polling is a mess.
[92] I don't think young people respond to polls.
[93] As you know, young people don't even call their parents.
[94] They have to text with them.
[95] They don't like talk to people on phones.
[96] And so the polling methodology is still evolving so much, not only in the post -Trump 2016 era, but then in COVID and then, you know, as we sort of change into a new generation, Republicans who hate polls, kids who don't respond to them, the pollsters are really in like a wasteland right now, I don't think we'll have a handle on that for a long time.
[97] But that's my general assessment, Charlie, is that I think it's most likely that abortion powered, you know, the counterwave.
[98] And there's a number of explanations in no particular order.
[99] Some of them are obvious.
[100] And number one, candidate quality matters a lot.
[101] This would have looked very, very different, you know, had Donald Trump not pushed unelectable candidates onto the ballot in places like Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
[102] So candidate quality, obviously, was a factor.
[103] secondly in terms of picking up on the you know the changes in the electorate i think that pollsters may have overcompensated they missed in 2016 they missed the number of republican voters that donald trump brought to the polls uh the first time voters i think this time they may have the pollsters may have missed many of these younger voters who came to the polls so i think that that was a factor and finally i spent a lot of time last night really looking at the the numbers in my home state of Wisconsin, which I do understand a little bit better than other states.
[104] And the underperformance in the suburbs is truly extraordinary.
[105] And the conventional wisdom before yesterday, and I was starting to, you know, buy into it was that, you know, suburban women were coming home to the Republicans, that the crime issue had driven them away from Democrats.
[106] But you look at the numbers in my area, in the county that I'm in right now, in crucial Waukesha County.
[107] And what you're in.
[108] are seeing is this continuing erosion of suburban support for Republicans.
[109] So the Democratic incumbent governor won in Wisconsin because the Republican just did not get the kind of votes that Republicans normally get in the suburbs.
[110] Now, by the way, we can come back to this.
[111] Democrats won every race statewide in Wisconsin, with the exception of the U .S. Senate race.
[112] Wow.
[113] The only one, Mandela Barnes trailed all of the other Democrats.
[114] And if Only they had been warned about this, but to your point, yeah, to your point, though, this has got to be about abortion.
[115] I mean, this, the Dobbs factor cannot be understated in terms of what happened in Michigan, in what happened in Pennsylvania, what happened in Wisconsin.
[116] You can see it.
[117] I find it remarkable that a pro -life constitutional amendment in Kentucky was roundly defeated.
[118] This is in the state of Kentucky.
[119] It's not that surprising the pro -choice referendum one in Michigan.
[120] But I do think that that somehow fell off the radar screen.
[121] And again, this is another one of those lessons about the conventional wisdom in the pundit hive mind, that everybody was like, well, no, Dobbs are going to be a big factor.
[122] And then they got bored with that.
[123] And it was like something else is going to do.
[124] It's all going to be about inflation.
[125] It's all going to be.
[126] And everyone goes along with it.
[127] And then you wake up this morning.
[128] and obviously the electorate had different priorities than we had been told repeatedly that they had.
[129] I mean, really quite remarkable.
[130] Yeah, I think that if you were furious about abortion in July, you weren't going to be any less activated by it four months later.
[131] But it does make sense that Republicans thought they might be spared because there is a portion of the electorate that is not politically engaged.
[132] and only sort of, you know, pays attention after Labor Day.
[133] And those people were going to, they were responding to interest rate hikes and inflation and gas coming back up and getting really furious about that, which is primary driver, understandably.
[134] And so that was really dominating in polls and abortion had dropped in polls.
[135] And so Republicans could dilute themselves that the young people and the women.
[136] And of course, a lot of men, too, who were furious all.
[137] summer about abortion, had just decided to chill out on abortion and suddenly changed their minds and either stay home or vote Republican.
[138] And I never really bought that.
[139] I thought the Senate was a jump ball until last night.
[140] And obviously, I think it actually will probably go Republican.
[141] But it was a jump ball all along because of, to me, because of abortion.
[142] I mean, the Senate comes down to Nevada and Georgia.
[143] We don't know whether or not the Republicans are going to flip the seat in Nevada.
[144] And then, of course, we have to wait until December 6th.
[145] for the runoff in Georgia.
[146] Raphael Warnock, the incumbent Democrat, is actually running ahead of Herschel Walker.
[147] So we'll have to, like, set that aside.
[148] And this leads naturally then to the whole Trump factor.
[149] And the role that Donald Trump played, because there's a lot of blowback going on now in Republican circles.
[150] This was a disaster.
[151] This was underperformance.
[152] Ben Shapiro was saying the red wave became the red wedding.
[153] And, you know, Trump's spending last night.
[154] cheering the defeat of Republican Senate candidates who had not sucked up to him.
[155] And then, of course, signaling that he's going to announce next week on Election Day yesterday, he decided it was a good time to start threatening Ron DeSantis.
[156] You know, I know stuff about you.
[157] Ron DeSantis runs up this big, big, big win.
[158] I mean, this is where Trump has a certain instinct.
[159] I have to give him credit for because he understood that it was possible to wake up this morning and that the rising star of the Republican Party would be Ron DeSantis.
[160] I mean, look, did you see with the cover of New York Post this morning?
[161] No. It's got Ron DeSantis holding his child on the cover of the New York Post, of the New York Post, and he's waving, and the headline is Da Future.
[162] Young GOP star Desantis, romps to victory in Florida.
[163] And so you know that Donald Trump was thinking, I don't want that.
[164] And yet, that's what he's got.
[165] So let's talk about this.
[166] And how this plays out because every Republican that I know is basically saying, look, you know, he is toxic.
[167] He is a boat anchor.
[168] This is time to move on.
[169] 2024.
[170] Now is looking much less rosy.
[171] But I feel like we've kind of been here before.
[172] Yeah.
[173] What do you think?
[174] I cannot imagine the pressure on Ron DeSantis right now because he wanted to run up a larger margin of victory than Trump had two years ago.
[175] And, of course, larger than the one that DeSantis had four years ago in 18 in a close race.
[176] I mean, I never expected Charlie could be right around 20 points.
[177] It's unbelievable.
[178] And so since Demings didn't lose by that many, there were obviously Demings to Santis voters.
[179] It's unbelievable.
[180] But Vanity Fair reported last week that Ron DeSantis has lost his nerve, doesn't want to take on Trump, decides he's only 44, he has plenty of time, and he's right, that he can wait it out.
[181] and run in 2028, why take on Trump?
[182] You know, Sarah Longwell has asked, does Rhonda Santos have a glass jaw?
[183] I've thought all along that he's too wimpy to take Trump on.
[184] If you want to take him out, you've got to take him on directly.
[185] You can't get into the primary contest and say, I know the favorite is the favorite, and I'm just here in case he gets indicted, has a heart attack, or taps me for VP.
[186] Tim Scott can't do that.
[187] Mike Pence can't do that.
[188] If you get into the race, you're running against Donald Trump, against the favorite.
[189] And you better be ready to try to take him down.
[190] And I don't think Ron DeSantis has the nerve.
[191] But this morning, with that margin and then all the Trump candidates doing so badly, the pressure from donors on Ron DeSantis that this is your moment, you've got to take him on, is going to be huge.
[192] They have woken up decided this morning deciding that DeSantis is the leader of the party and he better act now.
[193] And it's going to be fascinating to see if he has the balls.
[194] I think JVL has a good take here because, of course, the most obvious idea, and I will confess that I subscribe to it to a certain extent, is that Republicans have to understand that they cannot win with Trump on the ballot and that some younger figure is their only hope.
[195] I get that.
[196] And yet he also points out the strange world of Donald Trump's mind, which is, you know, heads Trump wins, tails Republicans lose that real quote from Donald.
[197] Donald Trump.
[198] He's talking to what was it one of these obscure channels now.
[199] Oh, yeah.
[200] Well, I think if they win Republicans, I should get all the credit.
[201] If they lose, I should not be blamed at all.
[202] I mean, always.
[203] And so his argument will be, well, you see, you need me on the ballot.
[204] You can't win without me on the ballot.
[205] I've never lost, right?
[206] I'm the only strong leader, you know.
[207] And then, of course, what you saw is that sort of mafioso thing, who's going to come for the Don?
[208] Because I'm going to take you out.
[209] I mean, yes, Yesterday was about basically saying, look, I got the shiv in my hand, and Ron, I'm going to, I'm going to gut you if you run against me. And so that is that test.
[210] But you're right.
[211] I think the dynamic, at least right now, has got to be Republicans all around the country going, wow, this was bad.
[212] We need to turn the page.
[213] But we also know how gravity works and how all the pundits, you know, the Mark Tyson's of the world who are saying, what a disaster.
[214] it is and how, you know, we need a course correction.
[215] And this was reckless of Donald Trump.
[216] They'll all come around.
[217] They'll all come around and explain why it is imperative that we all come together, that we unite.
[218] And, of course, you know, even a deeply impaired Donald Trump is better than the Marxist, communist, socialist, god -hating pedophile Democratic Party, right?
[219] Right.
[220] I mean, if they can rationalize January 6th chart.
[221] they can embrace Trump again.
[222] I mean, they embraced him until last night.
[223] Look, if it had been a red wave, Trump would have rolled out next week, basically claiming, you know, riding the wave, saying this is all me, let's carry it right through for 2024, and there would have been an irresistibility.
[224] Now, maybe it will turn out that way.
[225] But this does feel like, I mean, you know, he's going to have to work hard to spin this, and he's lost a lot of the people who would normally be carrying water from.
[226] And I guess in a convoluted way, I wonder whether the fact that now Georgia is going to be having an election on December 6th has any impact on all of this.
[227] Do you think that there's any chance that Trump changes the date of his announcement because any chance that he delays or changes the date of his announcement or is he stuck?
[228] Right.
[229] That's so fascinating.
[230] And what role will he play?
[231] And he didn't go down to Georgia and do a Walker event.
[232] And what's going on with that?
[233] And then at the same time, he's going to be lighting fires with McConnell and McCarthy as he tries to, you know, hold on to some dominance.
[234] These couple of weeks are going to be so explosive beyond this, you know, do or die runoff.
[235] I really believe that Nevada's going to go R. And so the majority will come down to Georgia.
[236] And it will be the highest stakes hellscape.
[237] And at the same time, all these other dynamics are happening within the park.
[238] as Trump tries to assert dominance, and that would be a huge sign of weakness for him to delay the announcement, I think.
[239] I don't think he can be talked into delaying it by the establishment.
[240] I do know advisors told him to hold off and not do it in August or September, hold off into the midterms.
[241] But, Charlie, I heard you say a couple days ago, and it's so true, we have to just pause for a moment this morning and reflect on what you just said.
[242] If he had had a great night, it would have helped him so much.
[243] He would have been so empowered if his candidates did well last night.
[244] He could have said Mitch McConnell, I don't care how much money you threw with these people.
[245] It's because I tapped them.
[246] I am the red wave.
[247] I am the Republican Party.
[248] Yep, yep, yep.
[249] It would have been such a different universe.
[250] And now we get to have a great time watching this unbelievable meltdown in the party.
[251] you know, does Elise DeFonick take on McCarthy because Trump tells her to, you know, what McConnell is just going to be unbelievable, all while Herschel Walker is trying to run another campaign.
[252] Okay, this is really interesting right now because all of the knives are out.
[253] The knives are going to be out for Kevin McCarthy.
[254] The knives are out for Trump.
[255] The knives are out.
[256] Everybody's got a knife out right now.
[257] So there's going to be all of this turmoil and this backbiting.
[258] And as you point out, there's so many big stories.
[259] that get lost.
[260] Donald Trump has explicitly called for the impeachment, whatever he means by this, of Mitch McConnell.
[261] So he's already saying that he wants a civil war within the Republican Senate caucus.
[262] I mean, there would be, you want to talk about ketchup all over the wall there.
[263] Yeah, yeah.
[264] There's a red wave.
[265] So he's already talked about kneecapping Mitch McConnell, trying to take out Mitch McConnell, which I think is highly unlikely.
[266] Do you agree with that?
[267] Yes.
[268] Oh, yeah.
[269] There's no chance.
[270] Yeah.
[271] Okay.
[272] Okay.
[273] So there's, there's no chance, but there's been buzz about Florida's other senator, Rick Scott, perhaps taking him on.
[274] So that's messy.
[275] Donald Trump is messy.
[276] By the way, you know what today represents with today, Marks?
[277] It's a trick question here.
[278] The window reopens for the Department of Justice to do something about Donald Trump.
[279] Remember that's all out there?
[280] The Department of Justice could not act before the election because of those rules, but the election's over now.
[281] And so we don't know what's going to happen.
[282] So in this toxic mix, you still have control of the U .S. Senate being decided in Georgia in a closely run race.
[283] So does Donald Trump go to Georgia?
[284] Does he play a major role there?
[285] And if he does, does that help or hurt?
[286] I think, well, what do you think?
[287] I'll give you my opinion afterwards.
[288] Well, I think Republicans will not want him in Georgia.
[289] I think he will want to go would be the center.
[290] Then he will.
[291] Right.
[292] Right.
[293] I mean, they don't want him there.
[294] So he'll go.
[295] So he'll go and he'll drop another one of his gigantic turd bombs in the middle of this race.
[296] Right.
[297] One of the other takes from last night trying to figure out what happened, what happened to the red wave was Donald Trump himself happened to the red wave.
[298] Yeah.
[299] That Donald Trump provided the motivation for Democratic voters to turn out in bigger numbers than expected.
[300] You know, this was the big question.
[301] Was there an enthusiasm gap?
[302] And again, much of the hive mind was buying into the idea that the Republican voters were much more enthusiastic and the Democratic voters were going to sit home.
[303] What is the number one thing that will motivate Democratic voters in Georgia to turn out on December 6th?
[304] It has to be Donald Trump.
[305] And so Donald Trump will now insist on making himself the, you know, the focal, the focus of attention for the next month, at a time when I agree with you, other Republicans are saying, no, you just shut the fuck up.
[306] Yeah.
[307] Not now.
[308] Just don't do it.
[309] And he won't pay any attention to it.
[310] So I don't know what happens in Georgia, but if he goes down to Georgia and he, you know, does his Donald Trump thing, and Raphael Warnock wins, Herschel Walker goes down, and Republicans again failed it within the Senate.
[311] You hate to see it.
[312] I mean, I'd hate to see it.
[313] Charlie, let's just go back to February 3rd.
[314] of 2021.
[315] They did not vote to convict Donald Trump, and he's Frankenstein, and I couldn't be happier that they own him.
[316] They deserve it.
[317] It was so easy to do.
[318] They could have moved on.
[319] The base could have been upset for three months.
[320] It was early yet.
[321] They were years before 2024, and they could have heathode him and said, you know what, keep screaming Ron Johnson and all you mega freaks.
[322] We dumped him, and history will prove us right.
[323] Just find another candidate.
[324] We'll move on from this.
[325] But instead, they're literally stuck with him.
[326] And we have no idea how much damage he's going to do.
[327] And no matter how much they say they're a post -Trump party and they're moving on and last night was bad, I don't know how they do it.
[328] Okay, so in another chapter of the knives are being out, let's talk about Kevin McCarthy.
[329] Kevin McCarthy at one point.
[330] And I have to admit, I was kind of wallowing in this too.
[331] Kevin McCarthy predicted a 60 -point game.
[332] for Republicans.
[333] And, of course, that was crazy.
[334] But there was a lot of speculation that in a real wave, like we saw in 2010 or 2014, that it might be in the range of 30 to 40 seats.
[335] We don't know now, but it might actually turn out to be 10, 15, maybe fewer seats, very, very small margin for Kevin McCarthy.
[336] So what does that mean for him?
[337] He has no idea.
[338] He really has no idea.
[339] He knew he needed a buffer.
[340] He was trying not to talk about that, but he knew he needed a buffer.
[341] And there is going to be so much turmoil because of Trump, because I think Trump, he said in the last few days he doesn't mind if Kevin McCarthy's speaker.
[342] But I do think, and it's a totally new day and anything could happen.
[343] It's extremely volatile and fluid.
[344] And Trump to maintain dominance, you know, all he does is pick fights.
[345] That's how he stays dominant.
[346] And so turning on McCarthy now is entirely in the toolbook, I think, for Trump.
[347] Totally.
[348] Bloods in the water.
[349] Yeah, it's just, exactly.
[350] And so I think McCarthy is really, he's in a world of hurt.
[351] I don't know what he's promising Marjorie Taylor Green this morning.
[352] I don't know what he's doing to try to, I don't know what McConnell's telling him not to do.
[353] I mean, what is going on today behind the scenes is, it's a rich chavistry.
[354] I think that there is no threat to McConnell right.
[355] The anti -McConnell, the little sour group that's anti -McConnell is like Scott, Cruz, and Ron Johnson.
[356] And maybe on a good day, they can be joined by like Mike Lee and Josh Hawley.
[357] But McConnell's position is not in doubt.
[358] And he literally did save those candidates.
[359] He put in $238 million, and Trump put in like nothing, a couple of million in the very final weeks.
[360] But McCarthy, who's tried to have it both ways, all long, and it's just kind of a dumb guy anyway.
[361] I feel almost badly for him today.
[362] Oh, I don't at all.
[363] Okay.
[364] So Jackie Heinrich, who's a correspondent for Fox, has been tweeting that, you know, GOP sources are saying knives are out for Kevin McCarthy.
[365] If he is under 225, of course, the majority is 218, if he's under 225, expects Scalise to make a move quickly for speaker.
[366] So there's, you know, at one level, or at least the phonic, making a move to oust him.
[367] The second possibility is, let's assume that he's, you know, has very little buffer.
[368] And he does become speaker.
[369] You know, talk about the worst job in the world because you already have people like Thomas Massey saying, hey, did you see how powerful Joe Manchin was when they only, when they needed his vote, when he was the one man who made all the decisions?
[370] This is going to be great for people like me. So all the crazies in the caucus are going, huh, this is my moment, Marjorie Taylor Green, you know, and some of the other freaks that are still there are all going, you know, four or five of us, we constitute the majority, we own Kevin McCarthy.
[371] And he's going to have to swallow every shit sandwich they put in front him.
[372] Right.
[373] It's an incredible inflection point because it would almost help them just to say, No, no MAGA, we can't proceed this way out of the votes.
[374] We're going to support Ukraine, we're going to raise the debt ceiling, and we're not going to crater the markets, and we're going to do everything that you don't like because our hands are tied.
[375] To just totally give up and just be normal again would be a far easier path than the grenade -filled road that he's going to be walking, because it is so volatile if there's only a few seats and there's no buffer.
[376] If he had a pickup of 28 seats last night, people would be coming into the caucus that would have beaten Democrats in swingy places and would be needing to hold on to those seats and not be radical.
[377] But when you are down, like as you said, to seven people, and they can include Gohmert Gates, Green, Massey, Gosar, and a couple of other screwballs?
[378] Yeah, the freak caucus.
[379] You're hating it.
[380] Yeah.
[381] And so I don't see any way around that for him if he, if he in fact survives.
[382] Now, what will be interesting to see is whether Trump, you know, throws him under the bus as well because, of course, you know, Trump needs to deflect the blame.
[383] He understands in his lizard brain, Donald Trump, and I'm giving him credit for this, that he's sitting there going, I can't be the goat here.
[384] I cannot be the person who is blame for this.
[385] So I have to go all in on attacking McConnell and maybe even McCarthy.
[386] I have to go after others.
[387] On the other hand, your point about McConnell being solid, because he actually did help these candidates, whereas Donald Trump just tweeted about it or whatever he does, he does right now.
[388] And to use the hoary old cliche, if you shoot at the king, you better hit the king because Mitch McConnell never had much love for Donald Trump, but this is becoming a hot fight.
[389] The other problem for Trump is that among the people that he cannot blame is Ron DeSantis.
[390] So Ron DeSantis has made himself bulletproof right there.
[391] So I don't know what's, I don't know what's going to happen here, but it's going to be ugly.
[392] One of the big winners, we can talk about what this means for Joe Biden in a moment, but I haven't really seen people talk about it.
[393] I think in terms of just pure relief about the result, Ukraine has to feel pretty good about it because there was an electoral gun aimed at their heads.
[394] And I really think that there was a very real possibility that a Republican House, with a strong majority, might refuse to continue to fund Ukraine, depending on whether or not McCarthy still had the Hastert rule, which we don't need to go into.
[395] But a lot of the horrible things that we thought were going to happen, I don't think will happen.
[396] Do you think that even with a small majority, they would move ahead with impeaching Joe Biden?
[397] That becomes a huge question now, isn't it easier for him to just stand down and say, we really are trying to build a path to the White House people in 2024, and I can't do all this crazy stuff and just try to pick some battles that are smaller?
[398] I don't know.
[399] But he can't.
[400] No, let's go back to our previous conversation.
[401] If the seven crazies come into him, you know, Marjorie Taylor Green and Gates said, we absolutely insist that you impeached Joe Biden.
[402] How does he resist that?
[403] He says no to them.
[404] they call daddy down in Mar -a -Lago.
[405] Trump issues a statement that he's somehow out of, you know, a cuck rhino.
[406] And he's completely dead.
[407] So, I mean, there's so many bad -case scenarios, yeah.
[408] So many disasters and nightmare scenarios were averted last night that my brain is like starting to go back to 2014 or normal times.
[409] I don't know what's happening to me. You are right.
[410] He will not have a choice.
[411] He will be under too much pressure because they'll match a coup against his speakership if he does back down.
[412] No, it's interesting.
[413] You're talking about how you're a judge.
[414] just in your thoughts.
[415] I have the same experience because my entire worldview has been, okay, I know what's going to, what 2023 is going to be like, and this is going to happen, and this is going to happen.
[416] And now, you know, we're sitting here going, geez, maybe that was wrong.
[417] Maybe that's not going to happen.
[418] Look, in Republican circles on the right, I think there was this deeply ingrained, embedded belief that they could say anything, they could push any conspiracy theory.
[419] They could advance any slur.
[420] They could embrace any crazy.
[421] And they wouldn't pay a political price for it.
[422] Right?
[423] I mean, you got that sense that figured, you know, why draw any lines?
[424] Why have any guardrails?
[425] Because we're going to win anyway.
[426] It is going to be a red wave.
[427] So let Marjorie Taylor Green say what she's going to say.
[428] Let Paul Gossar say what he's going to say.
[429] You know, yeah, we have candidates talking about, you know, kitty litter boxes and schools.
[430] Like, who gives the shit?
[431] We're going to win anyway.
[432] And now they're going, holy crap, maybe those weren't the most effective closing arguments.
[433] Maybe, in fact, there are consequences for crazy, bigoted, false comments.
[434] And so this has got to be a very sobering moment for them as well.
[435] That's such a good point.
[436] Yeah, the shock is making it hard to even see straight this morning.
[437] And I'm not really articulating myself very well.
[438] But Charlie, there was a no account.
[439] ability zone for Republicans.
[440] Yes, right, right.
[441] And the more nihilism and the more garbage and the more disinformation, the better, and the more kind of anti -morality, anti -integrity, anti -legitimacy candidates embrace the better.
[442] It's Trump's America.
[443] And we were headed for the United States of Qaeda if a bunch of people got elected last night.
[444] Oh, I think so.
[445] And I think part of that environment was also then was a tremendous disincentive for any Republicans to stand up and say, whoa, this is crazy.
[446] So, I mean, there was that little twitch from Dan Crenshaw, and I have very mixed feelings about him, obviously, saying, you know, these election lies were always lies.
[447] They always knew it was a lie.
[448] And you knew that he was sort of chafing at it.
[449] But my sense is that the message you got from the team was, look, don't bring it up now.
[450] Right.
[451] Just keep your mouth shut.
[452] Keep your powder dry because we're, and just win.
[453] Just don't let, let everything happen because we're just going to win.
[454] now again the door is open briefly we've said this before and we've been disappointed to stand up and say you know why this didn't work out for us it's because of shit like this because of these election lies it's because of the crazy stuff and i wonder whether or not you will see people like that emboldened and i don't mean people like you know the bulwer crowd you know um being emboldened i'm talking about the dan krenshaw's the people who might actually have some traction within MAGA world.
[455] I don't know.
[456] I just don't know.
[457] I think Dan Crenshaw doesn't have any credibility anymore with the establishment or MAGA.
[458] Really?
[459] Okay.
[460] You have to be one or the other.
[461] I think he's considered a rhino by the crazy universe.
[462] But I saw today that Glenn Yunkin wrote a hand written letter to Nancy Pelosi apologizing for what he said last week about her and her husband.
[463] And I think that that is extremely compelling and it's really a, that's pretty profound to me. And I think that it'll be interesting to see if anyone stands up and says now what Dan Crenshaw was trying to say weeks ago.
[464] They might not say, look, it was a grift all along.
[465] But if this is the moment to dump the big lie, this is the moment to stand up and say, this was always super corrosive.
[466] Mitch McConnell said it on February 13th of 2021, and then he's never said it again.
[467] Not after everything we heard from the January 6th committee this summer and fall, Charlie.
[468] They have said nothing.
[469] And this is the moment for them to say this is like breaking the country, and this is not who the Republican Party is.
[470] Of course, it is who the Republican Party is.
[471] But to make a departure and try to reject this, it'll just be so interesting to see if they tower and fear, or if they have the nerve to separate themselves?
[472] No, I agree, except that, you know, we have to keep an eye on what's going to, what will happen in Arizona, because if Carrie Lake actually falls short, there's no way she's going to concede, and it becomes the big lie chapter two, focusing on the Arizona race.
[473] So they're too invested in it now.
[474] If she wins the governor's race, I'm afraid she's being president in 2024.
[475] Oh.
[476] I'm very sure she did not.
[477] Okay.
[478] She, well, okay.
[479] So, you know, there was all this conventional wisdom that she was the big rock star and she was surging, you know, how many puff pieces and profiles, you know, talked about her.
[480] If she just barely squeaks by, that's another one of those.
[481] Well, again, maybe the hive mind went too far.
[482] Everybody talked themselves into thinking that she was stronger than she was.
[483] And again, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves because we don't know.
[484] And there were enough problems in Maricopa County to give them fuel, not legitimate fuel, but out there.
[485] Also, in terms of this consequence -free universe that they were in, the fact is, and I know this is going to sound somewhat redundant, but if people have been paying attention, Donald Trump has actually been crazier and crazier and crazier that if you take a spectrum of the looniest stuff that you hear on the right, the former and maybe future president of the United States is at the far extreme, you know, talking about, you know, executing drug dealers after two -hour trials and giving the bullets to the family, a reference.
[486] referring to Nancy Pelosi as an animal.
[487] And again, people are like, we're not going to say anything about this.
[488] We're not going to talk about the anti -Semitism or anything because we're just going to win.
[489] Yeah.
[490] Now, suddenly it's like you're staring at the reality.
[491] Do you want to go into 2024 with this guy on the ballot in every single state, in every single locality?
[492] And I know that Republicans in private are saying, shit, no, we need to move on.
[493] We need to turn the page until we have this perennial question.
[494] Will they actually have the guts to do anything about it?
[495] And I think that you and I both have been suffering from PTSD that we've seen, you know, time and time again, they won't do anything about it.
[496] But right now, okay, can I tell you my fantasy right now that won't happen?
[497] Yes.
[498] Okay.
[499] It's a morning for that.
[500] Given the mood.
[501] And I always think of the mood on January 7th where we thought, okay, the world is now changed and this is going to happen and everything.
[502] And that lasted about five minutes.
[503] So maybe this is like January 7th again, right?
[504] The people are going, hey, we got to move on from Trump.
[505] But if someone like Rhonda Santa stepped out today and said, thank you so much for this tremendous victory that I had.
[506] And now I want to talk to my fellow Republicans that it is time to turn the page, that we need to look at what works and what doesn't work, and that we need to look to a new generation.
[507] We need to have somebody that can serve two terms and not one term.
[508] We need to have somebody that actually can win a last.
[509] rather than someone who loses elections.
[510] I'm telling you that if someone had the guts to do that right now, that there would be tremendous response among the Republican grassroots, the elected officials, and the donor class.
[511] Whether it would be enough, I don't know.
[512] But again, it's, you know, matching the will with the moment.
[513] And again, when I remember I introduced this by saying it's a fantasy.
[514] It won't happen.
[515] But, you know, boy can fantasize, you know.
[516] I did an event with Paul Ryan a few weeks ago.
[517] I think it was October 24th.
[518] This was very close to the election.
[519] And he said he didn't criticize any of the stuff we're talking about that Trump stokes violence, tried to steal an election, you know, is a liberal, politicized the military, the judiciary, you know, abused his power, extorted the Ukrainian president.
[520] Like, none of that just simply said, we have lost the House and the Senate and the president.
[521] We've never lost so much so fast as we have with Trump.
[522] You know, we need to find someone who can help us win.
[523] And that's basically what you just recommended Ron DeSantis say.
[524] I think Glenn Yonkin should say it.
[525] There's power and numbers.
[526] They should get together if they can't do it alone.
[527] And they should come out and say something.
[528] And maybe that is just a fantasy.
[529] I don't know if Paul Ryan can convince them.
[530] He's out there saying it's not getting much attention.
[531] I don't think we should be looking to Paul Ryan to be a leader of the future of the Republican Party.
[532] And I say that as somebody who...
[533] I'm not saying he's...
[534] No, I'm not saying he's going to be a leader.
[535] Strengthen numbers.
[536] Strength and numbers, and they should just say what he says.
[537] It's what you just said about Ronda Santas.
[538] No, your point is well taken.
[539] They need to give each other permission to do it.
[540] So that if Ronda Santa says it on Wednesday, and then in the same news cycle, Glenn Yonkin says basically the same thing, and then Tim Scott says, yeah, absolutely right, we need to turn the page.
[541] And I'm running out of names now, but if they all start talking about this at the same time, then it becomes a much more difficult target for Trump.
[542] I mean, he's going to lash out at any of them.
[543] And by the way, speaking of lashing out, these reports of, you know, his constant rage and everything.
[544] And apparently, is this this morning now that he's on Glenn Beck's show, attacking Mitch McConnell and attacking Mitch McConnell's wife again?
[545] Well, I think he's got a lot of pressure.
[546] His wife is a big person for Chinese investment, you know, Cocoa Chow.
[547] I don't think that's appropriate.
[548] No, I think Rick Scott would be much better than McConnell.
[549] Trump reiterated.
[550] He is not a fan of McConnell or his wife, former United States Secretary of Transportation, Elaine Chow.
[551] And he goes on.
[552] So he's going to make this as ugly as possible.
[553] And the only way Republicans are going to be able to push back against him is to make the case, hey, you're wonderful.
[554] We all love you, right?
[555] Because they have to say that.
[556] But it's time to give you the gold watch.
[557] It's so funny that you just were giving me a live update because Maggie Haberman just tweeted, Trump is indeed.
[558] furious this morning, particularly about Oz, blaming everyone who advised him to back Oz, including his own wife, describing it as not her best decision.
[559] According to people close to him, so now Melania is in the crossfire, not just Elaine Chow.
[560] Yeah, you are right, Charlie, what you just said a few minutes ago, he has to pick fights to displace the blame, and it's going to be a serious shit show.
[561] And I think that, again, I'm just going to enjoy it.
[562] But I want to just highlight here that you and I are trying to help the Republican with a strategy.
[563] We're like giving them advice on how they can band together and hold hands and not wet their pants and try to jump off at the same time.
[564] I hope they're listening.
[565] Yeah, I would like to think they are listening, but we have, what, five, six years worth of very solid experience of them not listening.
[566] Right.
[567] But this does seem to be a moment, but then again, this party has had so many off ramps.
[568] Yeah.
[569] So many off.
[570] But the one that will get their attention is you understand what Trump's effect was on this election.
[571] If they internalize the fact that, you know, it's obviously not about morality or about the constitution of the rule of law.
[572] It's about power.
[573] And if they internalize the idea that he will cost them power, that he is the one Republican who will lead them to defeat in 2024, then, you know, that might focus the minds.
[574] I mean, you know, we've appealed the conscience.
[575] We've appealed the principle.
[576] That has gone nowhere.
[577] So how about just raw self -interest?
[578] This guy is going to fuck you over again.
[579] That's what we always think.
[580] But then you're right.
[581] I think they're afraid of their own voters.
[582] I mean, this is what JVL always talks about.
[583] They're truly afraid of their own base.
[584] That is absolutely true.
[585] And that's what keeps them coming back.
[586] Okay, so in our second hour of wallowing in all of this.
[587] I just, I'm just looking at the picture of, you know, the idea of the Dr. Oz, Blake Masters, Doug Maastriano, and Lauren Bobert all went down yesterday.
[588] Really extraordinary.
[589] I just have to throw in there because I know people think it's obnoxious when I say I told you so, but I am so deeply frustrated about the Ron Johnson story.
[590] And look, I have made it very clear that I take responsibility for, you know, helping him and supporting him in the past and pointing out that his brain has been broken and he is a deeply embarrassing figure.
[591] He was incredibly vulnerable.
[592] In Wisconsin, I think he was too far to the right knee.
[593] was just too crazy for Wisconsin.
[594] And if you look at the vote totals, every other Democrat running statewide won, with the exception of Mandela Barnes, who some people warned that if you put an untested candidate who was an opal researcher's dream up there, that you were basically throwing away a U .S. Senate seat.
[595] And I think this was a tremendous lost opportunity.
[596] The Democrats cleared the field, got all the more sensitive.
[597] electable candidates to drop out.
[598] So Mandela Barnes could be the nominee.
[599] And I feel like I've been screaming into the void.
[600] And you look at the numbers here.
[601] This was an eminently winnable race in Wisconsin that they blew.
[602] And I hope that they understand the lesson, although I'm skeptical of that as well.
[603] I couldn't agree with you more.
[604] And there's already progressives online who thought that if there was a huge red tsunami, they were going to get slapped around this morning.
[605] And I think that they would have, that Federman's victory just shows that they should have had a bigger, buildback, better package, and, you know, they had a great night and everything.
[606] And I'm with you 1002 % and have been for this entire campaign.
[607] It was a complete lost opportunity and a self -owned and Mandela Barnes, just as you pointed out, doing worse than all the other Democrats.
[608] And the governors, like the quietest man on the planet gets reelected while Ron Johnson wins.
[609] I mean, Right.
[610] If the Democratic candidate for Senate had simply tracked with the governor, the Democrats would be in control of the United States Senate this morning, and there would be no ambiguity about it whatsoever, but they decided to go with whatever.
[611] Okay, so I've done this.
[612] And I understand that people are going to be more angry about the, I told you so, Charlie, shut up about that and everything.
[613] I'm just saying, no, next time people pay attention to these things.
[614] Yes.
[615] All right.
[616] A .B. Stoddard, thank you so much for helping our post -red drizzle wallow this morning.
[617] I appreciate it very much.
[618] And I've enjoyed it.
[619] So much fun.
[620] Thank you, Charlie.
[621] The Bullwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Siri.
[622] I'm Charlie Sykes.
[623] Thank you for listening to today's Bullwark podcast, and we'll be back tomorrow and do this all over again.