Shelby Talcott: DeSantis Sticks His Toe in the Water

[0] Welcome to the Bullwark podcast.

[1] I'm Charlie Sykes.

[2] It is March 23, 2003.

[3] And apparently today is not going to be Indictment Day for those of you who have been stocking up on whether it is Doritos or popcorn or an adult beverage of your choice.

[4] The reports that we're getting this morning are that the New York Grand Jury will not be meeting for the rest of the week.

[5] So we'll just have to set that aside.

[6] And meanwhile, I am struggling because I can't get through the paywall on this story to find out whether or not this report out of Tallahassee is a parody or not.

[7] There is a principal of a charter school in Tallahassee, Florida, who is saying that he was ousted after parents complained that one of the school's art teachers showed kids pictures of, ready for this, pictures of Michelangelo's David, with one of them calling it pornographic.

[8] So the charter school principal said he was forced to resign after a parent complained.

[9] that this art lesson was porn.

[10] As many people have pointed out on social media, this is literally an episode from The Simpsons.

[11] They literally had an episode in which David is going coast to coast, you know, to Boston, U .S., Chicago, Los Angeles, New York City, and, of course, Springfield.

[12] And in Springfield, members of a certain parents group urge Marge Simpson to protest the sculpture because it's offensive.

[13] and unsuitable.

[14] And March has to argue that the sculpture is a masterpiece.

[15] I don't want to give away the ending, but, you know, life now imitating the Simpsons, which seems a good way of introducing our various topics today.

[16] Our guest today, Shelby Talcott, who is politics reporter for Semaphore, and she's covering Trump and National Republicans.

[17] Shelby, welcome to the podcast.

[18] Thanks for having me. I also noticed that your retired professional tennis players.

[19] So you've got a very interesting background.

[20] Not only were a professional tennis player, but also when you work for the Daily Caller, you actually learn to understand the language of some of these people, right?

[21] I mean, you can actually translate it for the rest of us.

[22] Yeah, I think working at the Daily Caller, certainly I was immersed in Republican politics and know all of these people.

[23] And that's really been helpful in covering Republicans running for president.

[24] Okay, well, I want to get to do reporting in a moment, but, you know, we're sitting here on this Thursday morning two days after the former president predicted that he would be arrested and perp walked in New York City, which obviously did not happen.

[25] He punked the entire world, once again.

[26] So how would you describe the mood in Trump world right now?

[27] I mean, how, what is the mood in Mar -a -Lago?

[28] What is the mood among his influencers waiting for this particular indictment?

[29] They're certainly focused a ton on this upcoming indictment if it does happen.

[30] You can just tell that that's their focus.

[31] It's kind of a struggle for them to get other things out.

[32] You've seen Trump has been kind of sending out policy videos over the past few months.

[33] Those have stopped.

[34] And so it's essentially all of these press releases are a mix of slamming Ronda Santas and slamming the Manhattan DA.

[35] So certainly they are solely focused on that.

[36] And I think there's a little bit of, you know, You've seen all of the reports, I'm sure, of Trump wanting to be perp walked, wanting to be publicly arrested.

[37] Yeah.

[38] I think there's an argument that that could be legitimate, that there's a side of him that thinks that it will help his presidential run because all of his followers see this as politically motivated.

[39] And so I can see that argument as well.

[40] But, you know, at the end of the day, Trump certainly does not want to be indicted.

[41] He said it in the past.

[42] Like, it would not be good.

[43] like a good thing to have on his record.

[44] So it's kind of a mixed bag.

[45] I think there's frustration.

[46] I think it's kind of a waiting game.

[47] And that's their really sole focus at the moment.

[48] Are they jazzed about it?

[49] I mean, are they nervous about it?

[50] I mean, there's a lot of the usual bravado, like, bring it on.

[51] You know, we don't care about all of this.

[52] And you're getting this out of these reports that Donald Trump actually wants to be handcuffed and things.

[53] But as you point out, it's never a good thing to be indicted for a felony, no matter who you are.

[54] So I'm trying to read some of the same influencers you on.

[55] and trying to detect, you know, how much of it is bravado and how much of it is, oh, man, just strap in here.

[56] I mean, it's, you know, nervous excitement, excited nervousness.

[57] How would you characterize it?

[58] I think it's a little bit of both.

[59] I think certainly there's bravado going on.

[60] I think there's a part of them that really does believe that this will help Trump, that it's politically motivated, and that voters will see that it's politically motivated.

[61] So their feeling is, listen, if this is going to happen, we might as well embrace it.

[62] we might as well try to flip it on its head and make it into a good thing and have it help his presidential run.

[63] At the same time, I think it's accurate to say that no reasonable person would want this outcome if they were rooting for Trump or on his team.

[64] It certainly doesn't make their job any easier.

[65] It doesn't make him running any easier.

[66] So it's a mixed bag, definitely.

[67] You mentioned this before.

[68] Who are they more obsessed with?

[69] Alvin Bragg or Ron DeSantis?

[70] because it seems that they're spending at least as much time on Ron DeSantis as they are on the DA who's about to potentially drop an indictment on his head.

[71] Yeah, I think it's 50 -50, honestly.

[72] If you look at his press statements, it pretty much flip -flops between the Manhattan DA and Ron DeSantis.

[73] And I think the Ron DeSantis thing might be a longer game, certainly, especially if DeSantis jumps in the race, which he seems more and more poised to do so.

[74] But, yeah, this cold war between Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump is heating up because, you know, DeSantis has started really commenting directly on Trump, which he didn't do in past months.

[75] Yeah, I mean, it is a cold war, but it's getting hotter by the minute.

[76] I noticed that in a late night, you know, truth social bleats against DeSantis, Trump posted a screenshot of somebody who referred to the Florida governor as Ron DeSoros.

[77] sort of reference to George Soros was like the ultimate boogeyman.

[78] I don't know that that's going to stick particularly.

[79] I mean, it's only March of 2003, and he feels like he's throwing everything at him.

[80] I mean, right now, everything.

[81] I mean, you're a groomer, you're a terrible governor, you're a closet liberal, you're Paul Ryan.

[82] Yeah, we've done reporting in the past few months over what those attacks from Trump would look like.

[83] And it certainly does seem like he's already kind of opening up the entire bag.

[84] He's hitting him on his congressional record, which we knew it was going to happen.

[85] That's the Paul Ryan reference because of his, he supported cuts to Medicare Social Security.

[86] He's going after him over COVID, trying to push back on that narrative that DeSantis has created for himself.

[87] He is even suggesting that perhaps there were incidents with underage girls.

[88] and, of course, I could be wrong.

[89] I can't predict the future.

[90] But at this point, I haven't heard of much that Trump has not already said publicly.

[91] And I want to get to some of that.

[92] So what is the sense right now?

[93] Because there have been a series of polls showing that Trump is actually gaining that Ronda Sandus is losing some momentum.

[94] He got widely panned for his first statement on Ukraine.

[95] He's trying to have a do -over.

[96] We'll talk about that in a moment.

[97] But, you know, how do you see this?

[98] Is Ron DeSantis blowing up on the launch pad, you know, before he even gets in?

[99] Do the Trump people sense blood in the water here?

[100] Are the DeSantis people sensing that they need to change the dynamic?

[101] Where are we at right now?

[102] Why is this happening now?

[103] So it's a good question.

[104] I don't think it's a coincidence that this is heating up as Trump is facing an indictment.

[105] I think perhaps Ron DeSantis looked at that and thought, you know, this is a good time for me to open up a little bit on this front.

[106] I would say, as for the polls, it's just so early.

[107] And I don't think it's surprising that Trump has gone up in the polls given his indictment because, you know, I read the Politico piece a few weeks ago that argued this is not good for Trump.

[108] And in a way, that's true.

[109] But I think at the end of the day, his supporters, and they believe he has a solid 30, 35 percent who are going to vote for him no matter what.

[110] Those people certainly believe that this is politically motivated.

[111] And with this case in particular, even some of Trump's critics are a little bit questionable as to, you know, whether or not this is the right way to go.

[112] And so I think in that sense, it does help Trump.

[113] So, you know, we might be seeing the boost in polls from that.

[114] At least short term.

[115] So you're right, he's got a solid 30, 35 percent.

[116] But this is not the kind of thing that's going to get him from 30, 35 to 40, is it?

[117] I mean, if it's about consolidating the base, this may do this, but it's not about addition.

[118] And I guess where does the Ronda Santas strategy come in here?

[119] Is he trying to peel off some of the MAGA folks?

[120] Is his main appeal to the squishy?

[121] Could we just move on from Donald Trump folks?

[122] How do you think this plays out?

[123] I think he would be targeting kind of the people who liked Trump but are willing to entertain the idea of moving on because certainly if he was trying to pull off that MAGA base, it would not be a good idea.

[124] to go after Trump.

[125] And so I'm not sure, and to be fair, you know, I've talked to multiple campaigns.

[126] I'm not sure a lot of these campaigns are trying to target that macabase.

[127] I think that they understand that there is, you know, 30 % of people who are going to vote for Trump no matter what, why waste our time trying to pull those votes when instead we can try to consolidate the rest of the votes.

[128] And so, yeah, I think Ronda Santos is certainly trying to get the, that part of the vote instead of those, you know, Maga Hard Trump folks.

[129] And you made this point, and I think it's an important point, the Trump campaign is already sort of unloading on Ron DeSantis and that, you know, even though that everybody is talking about the indictment that down in Mara Lago, they're at least equally focused on Ron DeSantis, which I think is fascinating.

[130] They're doing this.

[131] And yesterday, Trump kind of laid out his anti -Dissantis strategy, how he plans to crush DeSantis.

[132] And let me just read you a little bit of the statement because I know you've read this.

[133] And he put this out in the form of, I keep wanting to say tweets.

[134] What do we call the social media truths?

[135] The truth.

[136] That's hard for me to say, just because it's just a complete bullshit.

[137] But anyway, here's the statement.

[138] Now that Rhonda Sanctimonius is finally admitting he's in the race by beginning to fight back.

[139] And now that his polls have crashed so that he has no other choice, let me explain the facts.

[140] Now he starts laying out his critique.

[141] He is for a Republican, an average governor.

[142] He got 1 .2 million less votes in Florida than me. He fought for massive cuts in Social Security and Medicare and wanted Social Security's minimum age to be raised to 70 years old or more.

[143] He is a disciple of Paul Ryan.

[144] He did whatever Ryan told him to do.

[145] Florida has been successful for many years long before I put Ron there.

[146] It's amazing what Ocean and Sunshine will do.

[147] Surprise.

[148] Ron was a big lockdown governor on the China virus, sealing all the beaches and everything else for an extended period of time, was third worst in the nation for COVID -19 deaths, losing 86 ,000 294 people, third worst for total number of cases at 7 .5 million.

[149] Other Republican governors did much better than Ron because I allowed them this freedom.

[150] And then he goes on to list these statistics, that Ron as governor of Florida did worse than New York for COVID death rates.

[151] In education, Florida ranks among the worst in the country, and on crime, Florida ranked third worst in murder, third worst in rape, and third worst in aggravated assault for 2022.

[152] I'm imagine Donald Trump using statistics.

[153] For 2022, Jacksonville was ranked as one of the top 25 major crime cities in the country, with Tampa and Orlando not doing much better.

[154] On education, Florida ranks number 39 in health and safety in the country, number 50 in affordability, and number 30 in education and child care, and then all in caps, hardly greatness there, exclamation point.

[155] The fact is Ron is an average governor, but the best by far in the country in one category, public relations, where he easily ranks number one, but it is all a mirage capitalized.

[156] Just look at the facts and the figures.

[157] They don't lie, and we don't want Ron as our president.

[158] So, Shelby, I have to say, I read through that, and I thought, okay, this is going to be a potent critique that he's about to unload against DeSantis, because DeSantis has been really running on, you know, let's turn the rest of America into Florida.

[159] And I am this powerful, successful governor.

[160] What do you think?

[161] What do you make of this?

[162] Yeah, it was.

[163] And it actually surprised me a little bit just because it was so detailed in getting into the crime when he was in Congress and going after him for COVID lockdowns at the beginning.

[164] The thing is, though, I wonder, because I've seen this, and things could change, obviously, we still have a long ways to go.

[165] But as of now, most Republicans do not like seeing Republicans fight with each other.

[166] And they do not like seeing Republicans directly attack each other.

[167] We saw that originally when Trump first started going after DeSantis.

[168] I talked to a lot of voters.

[169] I talked to a lot of Republican lawmakers who were like, you know, I just wish.

[170] He wouldn't do that because the problem is people like both Trump and DeSantis, and even the voters who are willing to entertain other people and think that it's not Trump's time anymore, they don't want a candidate who is going after Trump.

[171] Yeah.

[172] And they like DeSantis, so they don't like when Trump goes after Ron DeSantis.

[173] I think what the important thing to really keep in mind and look at is kind of how these attacks play.

[174] with Republican voters because I'm not sure that they're really going to like them because they like both candidates.

[175] Well, see, I remember, I'm actually having a flashback to 2016 here in Wisconsin where among Republicans, Scott Walker was very, very popular.

[176] I mean, he was kind of iconic, having survived the recall and everything.

[177] I mean, people were lukewarm on his presidential run, but, you know, Scott Walker had a lock on the state Republican Party.

[178] And Donald Trump came in to the Wisconsin primary, and he just started ripping.

[179] Scott Walker, you know, attacked him for his budgets for a variety of things.

[180] Trump ends up losing the Republican primary here, but Republicans fell in the line behind Donald Trump despite the fact that he had trashed their own governor.

[181] And I thought that was really one of the most interesting things that people may say they don't like it, but one of the things we've seen over the last eight years is Republicans get over it, don't they?

[182] I mean, it could hardly come as a shock to them that Donald Trump likes to insult people and throw shit up against the wall, right?

[183] I mean, this is not like a revelation and not breaking news.

[184] Yeah, that's true.

[185] And I think if anybody can get away with it, it is Trump because he just is kind of carved out this niche for himself that I don't know any other Republican candidate can successfully do.

[186] And you're certainly right.

[187] We talked to donors last year who were either on the fence about supporting Trump or blatantly did not want to support Trump.

[188] But the reality is, I think, at the end of the day, if he were the Republican candidate, they would get behind him because they would rather have a Republican for president than not.

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[201] We're going to get through this together.

[202] I promise.

[203] So this is what I was most anxious to get your opinion on.

[204] Your thoughts about Rhonda Santis's pushback this week.

[205] He had sit down an interview with Pierce Morgan.

[206] So far, we've really only heard Pierce Morgan's view of this where he's trying to hype it up and do.

[207] He was really, you know, sick and tired of Donald Trump, and he's punching back.

[208] Give me your sense, though.

[209] You know, reading over the transcript on day two or day three of this, I'm kind of struck by the fact that he's poking, but we're not seeing much in terms of, you know, hard punches from Ron DeSantis.

[210] There may be a few, you know, snarky little jabs here and there.

[211] So give me your sense of what Desantis' strategy is and how that might be playing with the base.

[212] I think DeSantis might be kind of trying to probe how much he can get away with.

[213] in terms of, you know, lobbying these, I wouldn't call them attacks, these light punches against Trump.

[214] But the other thing I think is really interesting is that this, DeSantis' comments have still gotten so much news.

[215] And it's interesting because you're right.

[216] They're not full -on attacks, but they're newsworthy because no other Republican candidate besides the quote -unquote never -trumpers have even come close.

[217] to making comments like Ron DeSantis has.

[218] And so for that reason, it's newsworthy.

[219] And I think that in itself is important to remember because it shows how sort of unwilling a lot of these other candidates are in directly going after Trump, partially because I think they don't want to be in the direct line of fire and partially because they're not sure there's an upside to doing so.

[220] If anyone can do it, and I heard this from one Republican strategist, and I agreed, if anyone can kind of go after Donald Trump, it would be Ron DeSantis because he is in the strongest position out of all the Republican candidates to do so.

[221] Do you think Ron DeSantis was surprised by that attack on his record as governor of Florida?

[222] Do you think he was prepared for that?

[223] Should have been.

[224] Yes, I think, partially because we've kind of, over the past few months, seen so many news articles about what.

[225] Trump's team planned to do.

[226] And, you know, we knew that he was going to go after his record during the lockdowns.

[227] We knew that there was a video out there of Ron DeSantis promoting, you know, I think the woman was like 100 years old and she was getting the vaccine.

[228] And that was, you know, the post that Trump pointed to the other night.

[229] So we kind of knew all of this.

[230] And, you know, I do think that Ron DeSantis is a savvy, whether you take savvy as a positive or negative, he thinks through a lot of what he's going to say and what he's going to do.

[231] And when I've talked to people close to him, he's very pointed.

[232] He does things intentionally.

[233] And so, yeah, I would be surprised if DeSantis didn't know that this was going to happen.

[234] I think whether he responds to it is a different question because I think he can just point to the positives in Florida to kind of refute that.

[235] So I don't know if that's going to be like a main argument.

[236] I mean, Trump is a Florida resident.

[237] So that alone kind of is interesting.

[238] Yeah, but of course, Donald Trump has never had a problem with cognitive dissonance in the past.

[239] So in this interview with Pierce Morgan, one of the lines that DeSantis drew when he was specifically said, what do you differ with Trump on, he said that Trump should have fired Dr. Fauci for his handling of COVID.

[240] The strategy seems to be on DeSantis' part that he is not going to one.

[241] allow Trump to outflank him on the right.

[242] So he's prepared to hit him from the right on all of this, which seems to be a sound strategy in the primary, but it carries the risk.

[243] Are they at all concerned about boxing themselves out in a way that would damage his prospects in a general election?

[244] I mean, if you keep shuffling further and further to the right to try to, you know, outright wing the other guy, you're going to end up on the far reaches of the political spectrum, aren't you?

[245] For sure.

[246] And I, you know, I think that's...

[247] part of politics today is that both sides are so divided that it's almost like it is a race to get further to the right or further to the left.

[248] And so I can see there being an issue should DeSantis win with getting some of these more independent voters, especially if he's going hard on COVID.

[249] And it's really interesting that Trump isn't, I mean, on New Year's, I tried to ask Trump what he thinks of DeSantis trying to investigate the vaccines.

[250] I didn't get an answer.

[251] I got a like a hand flick and a next question.

[252] But yeah, so I think, you know, they are going to differ a lot on that.

[253] But the interesting thing is on the flip side, Trump can't be too pro vaccine because there is a significant amount of the Republican base who thinks that the lockdowns were too much.

[254] And the, you know, forcing people to get vaccines were too much.

[255] And so it's going to be like a really interesting dance between the two of them in kind of Trump going a little bit more to the left on things and DeSanta's going a little bit more to the right.

[256] If either one of them takes like a tiny step in the wrong direction, I think it could be really bad for each of their campaigns.

[257] And speaking of that, it's going to be interesting to see how the abortion issue plays up because there's legislation in Florida that would impose a six -week ban, which, you know, is obviously, you know, very, very controversial.

[258] After the midterm, Trump suggested that taking too hard a line on abortion might have hurt Republicans.

[259] So is it possible that Ron DeSantis will sign a six -week ban and that Donald Trump will say that it's too restrictive?

[260] I mean, is that possible in the Republican primary politics to move to the left if you're Donald Trump on this issue of abortion?

[261] I think that's going to be a really big.

[262] tough issue for Donald Trump.

[263] I've also asked him about whether he would back a national abortion ban.

[264] Others have asked him.

[265] He has pointedly sidestepped the answers.

[266] I don't think they're ready to answer yet.

[267] And I've talked to a bunch of campaigns.

[268] And aside from Mike Pence, who is sort of the only one, I would say, who would run kind of on his conservative religious beliefs, they see this as like a landmine.

[269] So I think they want to wait as long as they can to answer.

[270] But what's interesting is, you know, I did an article, I think earlier this year talking to anti -abortion activists, and they are all kind of setting a rule for presidential candidates.

[271] They need to see presidential candidates support having some sort of federal legislation on abortion, and if they don't, they're not going to support them.

[272] Interesting.

[273] Now, I don't know whether Trump feels he needs that group.

[274] I don't know whether he thinks.

[275] he does, you know.

[276] I think he thinks that, you know, okay, well, I got X, Y, Z for this group, and now they, you know, ruined the midterms, which is what he essentially blamed them for, the midterms for not kind of getting it together after the midterms and coming up with a plan, which they took very personally.

[277] So it's going to be interesting.

[278] I could definitely see him arguing, though, that something like a six -week ban would be too restrictive and that the country's not ready for it.

[279] No, that will be fascinating.

[280] Okay, well, speaking of this dance between Trump and DeSantis, you tweeted yesterday afternoon about the latest DeSantis flex.

[281] He wants a mulligan, apparently, on his comments about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

[282] He's trying to clarify his comments in this, again, this Morgan interview.

[283] All we know is Pierce Morgan's version of this.

[284] And he quotes DeSantis describing Putin as both a war criminal and acting basically like a gas station with nuclear weapons.

[285] DeSantis also now saying that his dismissal of the invasion as a territorial dispute was mischaracterized and he said he should have been more clear that he was referring to the eastern Donbos region and he doesn't think that Russia has a right to that area.

[286] So surely, is this a, you know, a walkback?

[287] Is this a flip -flop?

[288] What's going on with Ron DeSantis?

[289] Because obviously a lot of DeSantis's critics are jumping on this as saying, okay, this is your first big statement and you're already waffling on it.

[290] You already blew this.

[291] What do you think?

[292] Yeah, and I talked to some Trump people, and that was their first comment was, oh, this proves that Ron DeSantis is a flip -flopper, that he's just going to say whatever he wants in order to appease to the majority of Republicans, XYZ.

[293] And so that's certainly the immediate criticism from the Trump campaign that you've seen.

[294] I would say it's a little bit of a walkback of his.

[295] comments.

[296] I would probably say that DeSantis' team would argue it's a clarification of his comments, but, you know, he seemed pretty clear in what he said to Tucker originally.

[297] It was a written statement.

[298] You know, it wasn't like an on -the -fly verbal question, which I feel like tends to sometimes produce different answers, and then you can argue that you are clarifying.

[299] So, yeah, I would say it's a little bit of a walkback.

[300] But to be fair, he did, in his original statement, have that kind of nuance.

[301] He said that the U .S. can't prioritize intervention in escalating foreign war over the defense of our on homeland.

[302] But he also said that Washington shouldn't give Keev any military assistance that would allow Ukraine to loss offensive.

[303] So like F -16 fighter jets, long -range missiles.

[304] So he did kind of leave that open to some sort of assistance, which I thought was interesting.

[305] I have mixed feelings about it.

[306] I mean, it's clearly a walkback.

[307] It's clearly a quasi -flop On the other hand, you know, anything that moves a leading candidate away from the appeasement caucus is probably, from my point of view, a good thing.

[308] Let's talk about the Trump -Dissantus sexual innuendo dance.

[309] You reported Monday on the small rock that DeSantis threw at Trump when he mentioned the hush money to the porn star over some type of alleged affair.

[310] And then Trump responds by, as you wrote, blindfiring a submachine gun of fact -free gay -baiting innuendo.

[311] So how are the other candidates going to be handling that as well?

[312] I mean, Pence is kind of dismissing this.

[313] He's not getting involved in the Stormy Daniels thing.

[314] Chip Roy, who recently endorsed DeSantis, told Glenn Beck that Trump clearly paid a porn star off to hush up right before an election.

[315] So how is this going to play?

[316] I mean, you're hearing from people who still have some credibility within MAGA World or, you know, the conservative base, who are prepared to say, yeah, this is not trivial.

[317] You know, hush money to a porn star.

[318] That's out.

[319] It's in the bloodstream now, isn't it?

[320] Yeah, for sure.

[321] There is a group, like you said, Chip Roy, Ronda Santos, obviously, his supporters, who are now willing to point out the fact that Trump's personal life should not be off limits.

[322] And it has been for many years.

[323] I talked to a Mike Pence advisor because he seems like the most likely candidate to be able to make that argument of I'm different from Trump in these persons.

[324] aspects, and that should matter, right?

[325] They don't see an upside to being so overt with it.

[326] They think it would essentially turn off voters.

[327] And then I, you know, spoke to a guy who worked on Marco Rubio's campaign, who pointed out that it's not a new attack.

[328] Like, people know who Trump is.

[329] It's not something he's ever tried to pretend.

[330] This has been litigated, yeah.

[331] Exactly.

[332] And voters don't care.

[333] So the question is, why would they suddenly care?

[334] And I think that's a really strong argument is if we see Ron DeSantis continue going after Trump for this, I think it could backfire on Ron DeSantis because, again, this has been litigated since, you know, 2016, and voters have shown time and time again that it's not a priority for them.

[335] Conceding that 80 to 90 percent of all of the Republican buzz centers on Donald Trump and DeSantis, there's also, you know, a lot of speculation about what Tim Scott is doing.

[336] What are you hearing about that?

[337] What is the theory of the case there?

[338] How does Tim Scott think that he is going to navigate this particular, you know, complicated moment?

[339] Yeah, I went to one of his, I think it was in Iowa, one of his Iowa events last month.

[340] I think he's running.

[341] He has what, I think it's $20 million, $22 million in the bank.

[342] He's clearly gearing up for a run if you saw that political article just a few days ago.

[343] So it's interesting because he is kind of operating in the same space as Nikki Haley in a way where they're both running on their backgrounds.

[344] Tim Scott says, you know, I'm a black man who has all of this history that should have brought me down and should have kept me down and look where I am now.

[345] And it shows that America isn't racist.

[346] Essentially, races at the center of Tim Scott's pitch in a similar way as Nikki Haley.

[347] I guess the question is, when does that space become too busy?

[348] Tim Scott doesn't have, I would argue, the same notoriety at this point as Nikki Haley.

[349] I think that could be a problem, and so I think that Tim Scott is going to also have to pick, you know, a policy or two that he really runs on if he's going to be successful.

[350] Okay, this is kind of a difficult question, so I apologize in advance, but are Tim Scott and Nikki Haley actually running for president?

[351] Or are they running for something else?

[352] Yeah, if you talk to either of their camps, I mean, Tim Scott has not announced yet, but they would both argue that, you know, if Tim Scott runs, and obviously Nikki Haley's already running, they are absolutely not running for vice president.

[353] I don't know that Nikki Haley would be a serious option at this point for, you know, Trump, for example, for vice president.

[354] So I would also kind of agree with that.

[355] You know, I've talked to her team.

[356] and they're very confident that she has a lane that she can kind of craft out for herself and that she brings something to the table that others don't.

[357] And, you know, coupled with the fact that I'm not sure she would be a top 10 pick for Trump at this point, given she's running against him.

[358] You know, I say it would be if she was actually running for vice president, which I've seen those arguments, it would be kind of a fool's errand.

[359] Yeah, I mean, what about, though, just, you know, raising your, your profile for the future, getting much bigger fees on the speaking circuit and all of those other things that don't necessarily involve elective office?

[360] Yeah, I mean, we've seen that happen time and time again, right?

[361] So it shouldn't be surprising if there is a candidate or two in this Republican primary that is thinking that, right?

[362] Okay, if force comes to worse, I'm going to become more well -known and it's going to help me in my career.

[363] And, you know, you've seen Scott in the past talk about the vice presidency, which was interesting.

[364] I'll have to find the article for you.

[365] But he's made comments in the past.

[366] But at the same time, there was a recent quote from one of Scott's advisors that I saw online, basically saying, you know, if anyone is saying that Tim Scott is running for vice president, should he run, we're not taking them seriously.

[367] They're like cut out.

[368] So they are like, their teams are trying to push back on that narrative, whether it's true or not.

[369] Well, here's another speculative question for you.

[370] Let's say that Ron DeSantis does flame out.

[371] I don't think that's happened yet.

[372] There are people like, you know, I mean, David from, who I respect a great deal, think he's already flamed up.

[373] But let's say that you have a failure to launch by Ron DeSantis or Ron DeSantis stumbles and fades quickly.

[374] Who steps up?

[375] Who is in that other lane?

[376] Who are you looking at?

[377] Now, I would have said, you know, if you would have asked me this last week, I would have said, well, then I think a lot of lonely eyes are going to be turning to Glenn Yonkin, governor of Virginia.

[378] But I see some of the Yonken folks are already peeling off and going to other people's political action committee.

[379] So what do you think?

[380] Who steps into the spotlight if Ron DeSantis falls away?

[381] So I've actually heard the argument from some Trump -aligned people that Tim Scott could be more of a threat than Ron DeSantis if he runs and if he runs correctly.

[382] So I thought that was really interesting.

[383] I don't know that he has the name recognition at that point, so I'm not 100 % convinced.

[384] You know, if Ron DeSantis flames out at this point, I think it's like open season.

[385] And, you know, again, polls are, it's so early, but there's no one at this point even close.

[386] So it's a difficult question.

[387] I guess I would say I would agree with some of these Trump people that if Tim Scott runs and can really, you know, make a lane for himself, he could be dangerous.

[388] People really like him.

[389] he's already got the support of a bunch of lawmakers who have made comments in the past that they'd love to see him run.

[390] But the name you have not mentioned is Mike Pence.

[391] Yeah.

[392] I really try to struggle to figure out what Pence's vision of the future is how he sees this happening.

[393] What do you think?

[394] So I think Pence is kind of running on his, and I've argued this before, that he seems to be the one person who is running on his kind of like true religious conservatism.

[395] You know, he's focused on the evangelicals.

[396] He relates to that kind of group of people.

[397] And, you know, he was already vice president, so he has a very high name profile.

[398] Going back to a discussion about abortion, if, in fact, Donald Trump did move to the left of Ron DeSantis on the abortion issue or did break with a national right to life groups about a national ban, that would be something that Mike Pence, I think, would be very comfortable pouncing on.

[399] I'm guessing that he would see that as his opening to get back that evangelical.

[400] social, conservative base.

[401] If Donald Trump does not think that he needs it, then Pence would grab for it hard and fast.

[402] Do you agree?

[403] Yes, I think so.

[404] But I also think Pence is smarter on the abortion issue a little bit, but he's more willing to address it as well.

[405] And I think that's what a lot of Republicans are looking for.

[406] Like, they just want answers.

[407] They want to know where Republican candidates stand.

[408] And so given that Pence doesn't seem afraid to talk about the abortion issue in a way that other Republican candidates are, I think that would be a completely reasonable thing for him to go after Trump on in a way that still doesn't, in his eyes, kind of stoop down to that level.

[409] You know what I mean?

[410] I do.

[411] So let's talk about a piece that you wrote with Dave Weigel over at Semaphore about right -wing influences.

[412] I found it really important because the point that you made is that Republican voters are caring less and less about the mainstream media's coverage more than ever right now, and that therefore, these right -wing influencers that most people have never heard of are playing a much, much more important role.

[413] And you're talking about guys who were in high school back in 2016.

[414] So talk to me about the right -wing influencers that you're paying the most attention to.

[415] Yeah, so we've got on the Trump side, Alex Brzewich, who is, I believe he's like 25.

[416] We have Jack Posobic.

[417] Of PizzaGate fame.

[418] On the DeSanta side, we've got John Cardillo.

[419] I had a lot of fun with this piece because the political climate in terms of social media has changed so much.

[420] And it is true.

[421] Like, yes, your parents and grandparents are probably still watching Fox News.

[422] But, like, the younger generation is not.

[423] They are on, like, all these apps.

[424] They're streaming things more.

[425] Like, I haven't had cable, and I'm not, like, in the younger generation.

[426] even, but I haven't had cable in, I don't know, since college, you know, I stream everything.

[427] And so, you know, Posobic has, he does that, you know, he's got the YouTube and Twitter and true social.

[428] And so they're actually, and it's interesting because I think it's important to point out that these people are not just on Twitter, because of course Twitter is not real life and it does not determine an election.

[429] But they've all got their own things going on and they're intertwined with these camps.

[430] I mean, Jack Posobic, if you go on his Twitter, just at a dinner with Trump a few nights ago.

[431] And these presidential candidates, Trump and DeSantis, have met with these influencers.

[432] So they're clearly taking notice.

[433] They think it's important to talk to them.

[434] And that's something we wouldn't have seen, I don't think, even, you know, in 2016.

[435] Well, you mentioned Pesobic.

[436] He has two million followers on Twitter.

[437] And this is the part where I wanted to put my head on the desk, that he'll matter as much as George Will did a generation ago.

[438] And that we need to understand that reality, that we've gone from George Will.

[439] to the Pizzagate guy, and there's no question about it.

[440] These are the influencers.

[441] I mean, you have people like Cardillo, who is pushing back against anti -Dissantis narratives.

[442] And, of course, you know, Steve Bannon's name comes up, right?

[443] As a guy that can still drive stories.

[444] I mean, it strikes me, it's one of the gaps between the, quote, unquote, GOP establishment or the grownups in the rooms.

[445] They are often taken by surprise because they're disconnected with this world that you and Dave Weigel are describing.

[446] Yeah, and, you know, it's funny.

[447] you bring up Steve Bannon, he was at CPAC, and I remember him, like, he was doing one of his live shows or something in one of the hallways, and it was clogged with people, like with fans, and same with Pesobics.

[448] So it was really interesting to see, like, these people matter, I think, more than a lot of the media realizes.

[449] And what's really interesting is the top two Republican candidates at this point are recognizing that they matter.

[450] They're meeting with them.

[451] They're having dinners with them.

[452] They're chatting with them.

[453] These aren't just influencers who are like fanboys trying to follow Trump around.

[454] They talk to Trump.

[455] They talk to dissent.

[456] Like they know these people.

[457] You've seen it.

[458] They tweet about it.

[459] So I think that's interesting as well as that these campaigns, especially Trump's campaign, they're realizing how important these people are to talk to and kind of, you know, I obviously don't know what their Trump's dinner conversation with Jack Posobic is like, but that, you know, he's chatting with these people.

[460] He's courting them.

[461] He met with lips of TikTok a few weeks ago.

[462] And because it's 2023, one of the most influential political figures in America today is named cat turd.

[463] Cat turd.

[464] Yes, yep.

[465] I remember, I think there's a recent article exploring who cat turd is.

[466] I think it's the first time I said that out loud.

[467] But.

[468] You know, definitely not something you would have thought in 2016.

[469] No, Cat Turd has clout, though, because Cat Turd has the era of Elon Musk who then influences the chatter.

[470] I mean, Elon Musk, the world's richest man who controls Twitter, pays a great deal of attention.

[471] And we're not, I'm not joking about this.

[472] This is not satire here.

[473] You know, Elon Musk listens to CatTurd.

[474] And, you know, when CatTurd raises an issue, Elon Musk, you know, will send it out to his 10 gazillion readers, and that does influence the narrative, doesn't it?

[475] So there's a guy named Cat Turd, who now is more important in American politics than the people on cable television and people like George Will, which is why we are completely forked as a country, isn't it?

[476] I do think that this is just the reality of the situation, whether you like it or not, and people are going to have to essentially get on board because sometimes I feel like I'm like 90.

[477] years old.

[478] What does that mean, though?

[479] Sorry, Shelby, I am not going to get on board with cat turd.

[480] I am not going to do this.

[481] In the sense of like acknowledging that these people have the ears of some of the most important people in our country.

[482] That's right.

[483] You know, whether you think that should not be allowed is entirely different story, but, you know, these people I think should be, you know, they're important.

[484] And so you've got to keep an eye on them on what they're doing because you keep an eye on what they're doing and you can kind of almost predict what people like Elon Musk or Donald Trump might be about to say or do.

[485] I think this is a great point because I noticed back in, you know, 2015, 2016 that if you read certain at that time relatively obscure websites or listened to a certain talk show host, you could with real moral certainty predict what Donald Trump would be talking about the next week.

[486] You could know this.

[487] And again, because people don't pay attention to that or don't understand the language, I think they're constantly surprised by various things.

[488] Whereas if you do immerse yourself in that world, you do know what they're talking about and where they're coming.

[489] And I know there are people who say, you know, well, we shouldn't amplify them.

[490] We shouldn't pay any attention to them.

[491] But if you don't pay attention to them, you don't understand exactly what the dynamics of politics are.

[492] So as absurd as it is to say that we live in the era of cat turd, you know, attention must be paid.

[493] And I think that your piece with Dave Weigel over Semaphore made that point very, very powerfully.

[494] Shelby, thank you so much for joining me on the podcast today.

[495] You can read Shelby Talcott's work at Semaphore.

[496] She is a political reporter who is covering Trump world and Republicans.

[497] And someday we'll have to have a conversation about tennis and tennis playing.

[498] Yes.

[499] Thanks for having me. What was your favorite tennis tournament to go to?

[500] I did a string of, like, mid -level tournaments in Australia at the end of every year.

[501] So I was there for about three months.

[502] And then before that, I would do a string in Thailand.

[503] I never did well in Thailand, but I love Thailand.

[504] And I love Australia.

[505] So I would say those two strings of tournaments were probably my favorite.

[506] Yeah, massive fringe benefits.

[507] Well, congratulations on that.

[508] And thank you all for listening to today's Bull Work podcast.

[509] We'll be back tomorrow and we'll do this all over again.

[510] The Bullwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper and engineered and edited by Jason Brown.