Tim Miller: Heroes and Zeroes of the GOP

[0] Welcome to the Bulwark podcast.

[1] I'm Charlie Sakes.

[2] Oh, my God, it is September 1st, 2023.

[3] Ugh.

[4] It's Friday.

[5] At least we have a long weekend, Tim.

[6] I mean, I'm looking forward to the long weekend.

[7] You?

[8] I love a long weekend.

[9] But I get sad at the end of summer.

[10] You know, I love summer.

[11] Not done yet.

[12] Got another three weeks.

[13] Fall people.

[14] If you're a fall person, I just close your ears for a second because I don't get fall people.

[15] I just don't get it.

[16] It's like, you know, I have this childhood, maybe trauma that bubbles up inside of me, just this feeling the cabins in my gut that's like I know I have to go back to school right now.

[17] School's coming.

[18] So anyway, that's Edmund.

[19] I'm going to have a great weekend.

[20] LSU Tigers are back.

[21] That's beautiful here in Louisiana.

[22] We're going to have a great time.

[23] It's going to be a nice three -day weekend.

[24] I actually love fall because it's beautiful here in the beautiful Midwest.

[25] We have all the color.

[26] We have the gold.

[27] No, no, it's basic.

[28] It is, it is, it is beautiful.

[29] But there was that whole back to school thing.

[30] You know, you sort of go back to back and forth, remembering how excited you were the first day of school versus the anxiety of like, holy crap, I have to go back to school.

[31] Yeah.

[32] Hey, I got to tell you, first time in decades walked the grandson to the bus this morning.

[33] It happened.

[34] First day.

[35] It happened.

[36] That's so exciting.

[37] When was it?

[38] today?

[39] This morning?

[40] Oh, Friday's kind of a weird day, first day of school.

[41] It's just like a little orientation situation.

[42] It's kind of brilliant.

[43] You ease into the year by starting on Friday, then you have a three -day weekend, and then you dive in next week.

[44] It's a very French schedule, actually, so it's a nice way for them to start.

[45] A little bit, but, you know, I mean, the whole, you know, back -to -school thing, and you know, get the school supplies and everything, and it's even more exciting when it's not you.

[46] I'm saying.

[47] I definitely hear that.

[48] Can we do something a little bit unusual.

[49] Can we start off with something positive today?

[50] I'd love to.

[51] I have a few positive things, even.

[52] I think we spent several years on a regular basis, you know, doom, gloom talking about which Republican has crushed our souls, who has disillusioned us, who has betrayed fundamental principles, all of that stuff.

[53] Did you catch the Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's press conference yesterday?

[54] I did.

[55] Okay, now, I understand a lot of people are going to go, Brian Kemp.

[56] No, no, no. Okay, whatever you think about his politics, I think this was pretty extraordinary.

[57] There is a big push in the Georgia legislature from the usual suspects to do something like impeaching district attorney Fannie Willis.

[58] This is a big thing down in Florida where Ron DeSantis has been firing prosecutors that he doesn't like.

[59] And so there is this push.

[60] Let's use our legislative clout in Georgia to pull Fonnie Willis and basically obstruct and blow up the entire case.

[61] So it, again, I think is one of these sort of amazingly.

[62] ironic moments for the party of law and order that, that ran so successfully against defund the police.

[63] And now they're like, hey, hold our beer, you know, defund the prosecutors, defund the law enforcement, defund the criminal justice.

[64] Eliminate the FBI.

[65] Why stop there?

[66] Who needs an FBI?

[67] Well, Brian Kemp, again, I don't know this guy.

[68] Do you know him at all?

[69] I mean, have ever encountered him in anyone?

[70] I covered him.

[71] No, I've never actually, I never, well, that's not true, actually.

[72] I met him one time with Jeb.

[73] We were together.

[74] And he was friendly, but it was kind of a formal setting.

[75] And then I, and then for the bulwark, I went down and covered his campaign.

[76] So I saw him in little press gaggle.

[77] So I don't know him personally.

[78] I mean, he kind of ran as governor, you know, as kind of a MAGA, you know, maga guy, you know, with the buses, he's going to send immigrants back and all of that.

[79] Yeah, I had a negative initial feeling during, because he had that first ad that was like blow up the bus, send the, send the illegals back type thing, which was pretty gross.

[80] Right.

[81] Total pander.

[82] But he did, as we all know, I stand up to Donald Trump when Donald Trump was pushing the big lie, and he lived to tell about it.

[83] This is, again, another extraordinary story because the assumption on the part of every Republican in America is, if you cross Donald Trump, particularly on election stuff, you're dead.

[84] That's the third rail.

[85] He defies Trump, ignores Trump, you know, is primaried and wins overwhelmingly.

[86] So, I mean, he's kind of a untouchable, a little bit.

[87] So anyway, there's this big push to use the legislature.

[88] you know, to pull Fannie Willis.

[89] He holds a press conference yesterday saying absolutely not.

[90] Let's play it because he doesn't hold much back here.

[91] I did want to take just a few minutes to speak to some history that's trying to repeat itself over the last few days here in Georgia.

[92] Many of you will recall that in the final weeks of 2020, I clearly and repeatedly said that I would not be calling a special session of the General Assembly to overcame.

[93] return the 2020 election results because such an action would have been unconstitutional.

[94] It was that simple.

[95] Fast forward today, nearly three years later, memories are fading fast.

[96] There have been caused by one individual in the General Assembly and echoed outside of these walls by the former president for a special session that would ignore current Georgia law and directly interfere with the proceedings of a separate but equal branch of government.

[97] Up to this point, I have not seen any evidence that D .A. Willis's actions or lack thereof weren't action by the prosecuting attorney oversight commission.

[98] But that will ultimately be a decision that the commission will make.

[99] Regardless, in my mind, a special session of the General Assembly to end run around this law is not feasible and may ultimately prove to be unconstitutional.

[100] The bottom line is that in the state of Georgia, as long as I'm governor, we're going to follow the law and the Constitution, regardless of who it helps or harms politically.

[101] Over the last few years, some inside and outside of this building may have forgotten that, but I can assure you I have not.

[102] The oath I took with my hand on the Bible that's right behind me in January of 23 is the same Bible that I took in my inauguration in 2019.

[103] And in Georgia, we will not be engaging in political fear that only inflames the emotions of the moment.

[104] We will do what is right.

[105] We will uphold our oaths as public servants.

[106] And it's my belief that our state, will be better off for.

[107] Who is this guy, Tim?

[108] Wow.

[109] That warms your heart a little bit, doesn't it?

[110] He goes on to talk about the grifters, you know, and the grifting off of all of this.

[111] It's like, who are you talking about?

[112] Where are you aiming?

[113] He could have just issued a press release, right?

[114] He could have written a letter saying, yes, no, we're not going to do this, you know.

[115] Thank you for your concerns.

[116] But at this point, we're going to keep it on it.

[117] No, he comes out and basically says, okay, we've been through this bullshit before.

[118] We're not going to do this bullshit again.

[119] It's illegal, it's unconstitutional, and we are not going to engage in some stupid political theater like some other people out there.

[120] Yeah.

[121] Or, you know, he could have done nothing.

[122] There are a lot of different steps between what he did and, you know, what the other options would have been, right?

[123] And just think about how these senators act, right, what Marco would have done in this situation, right?

[124] You get asked about something like this.

[125] It's, you know, he starts talking about how the media, why the media is always obsessing over this random nonsense and oh, you know, isn't it not true that the district attorney Fawney Willis is targeting Trump and that it's politicized and you guys, you know what I mean?

[126] Like, you could have done that.

[127] It could attack the media.

[128] He could have attacked Fonnie Willis.

[129] I've done what every other Trump opponent is doing, saying that, you know, these prosecutions are not appropriate.

[130] There are a million things that he could do.

[131] And he chose to not brush it off, not attack the media, not attack.

[132] Fawney Willis, but defend Fawney Willis and attack Trump, not by name, I guess.

[133] So he could have gone one step further.

[134] But everybody knows what he's talking about.

[135] I think it's pretty clear.

[136] And just the thing that I thought watching this yesterday was I just would love to rewind history back to January 7th and just done, where would we be today, September 1, in 2023, if everyone had done what Brian Kempt did.

[137] A much better place.

[138] I'm not asking for everybody to do, even what Liz Cheney did.

[139] Just what Brian Kemp did.

[140] Just, you know, speaking truth about what happened in the election, calling BS when it's BS.

[141] You know, I'm not asking everybody to change parties.

[142] You know, not asking everybody to change their beliefs.

[143] Just speak honestly about what Donald Trump was doing.

[144] Where are we today?

[145] And my guess is that he's convicted in the Senate and that, you know, we're staring down the barrel of probably a campaign that doesn't have Joe Biden nor Donald Trump, right?

[146] Because Joe Biden wouldn't feel like you needed to run again if Donald Trump wasn't on the ticket.

[147] Individual choices matter.

[148] Bill Crystal is so good on this.

[149] Like, history is contingent.

[150] Like, this stuff is not inevitable.

[151] And I just have so much credit to Brian Kemp, despite, you know, obviously we disagree on a few, on a handful of issues, particularly on social issues.

[152] But if this was easy, some people say low bar, you know, I come from me. I'm trying to Twitter.

[153] And a few people replied to be like, oh, the bar is so low for Republicans.

[154] I'm a little lower the bar.

[155] Yeah, the bar is low, I guess.

[156] But if the bar was, he's the only one stepping over it.

[157] So, so there must be something to it.

[158] I'm with you on this.

[159] Okay, let's go back to January 7th.

[160] And it's not just everybody behaving like Brian Kemp.

[161] It's like if everybody behaved like they thought and they believed back on January 7th, if every one of them remembered that moment and then, again, you're absolutely right.

[162] If Mitch McConnell would have gone ahead, pulled the trigger and he would have had the impeachment and the conviction, if all of these other.

[163] Republicans that said, okay, we're just done.

[164] If Lindsey Graham had said, okay, I'm off the train, you know, before I get yelled at in the airport, this country, this political world would be almost unrecognizable compared to what we have right now.

[165] And the Republican Party would be better off.

[166] Like, this is the thing that I kept saying at the time is, Brian Kemp survived.

[167] Now, Georgia is a different animal.

[168] You talked about this a little bit on the podcast yesterday.

[169] I think that the nature of like Atlanta is so dominant.

[170] I just think there's so many more college -educated kind of Republicans because it's a southern metropolis in the state.

[171] I do think there's some demographic reasons why Georgia's happening, but there also is we ended up happening to get ethical leaders there.

[172] We could have a different universe where Marjorie Taylor Green ran for Secretary of State instead of Congress, right?

[173] And we'd be in a whole different world right now.

[174] So part of that is leadership.

[175] Part of it is demographics.

[176] But we, you know, that we had these decisions that were made in Georgia.

[177] And it's like, I think that the Republican Party had everyone done that, there would have been some sacrificial lambs.

[178] A few other people would have gotten Liz Cheneyed and lost primaries.

[179] But in the medium term, in the long term, the party would have, yeah, the party would have been stronger.

[180] The party would have been stronger.

[181] See, I think that's almost inarguable.

[182] And this, by the way, is Brian Camp's point as well, that if you actually want to win elections, we need to stop this sort of thing.

[183] And here we are in Georgia, where we saw that up close and personal.

[184] And it is interesting to me, why the Georgia Republican Party is so different than the Republican Party, let's say, of Michigan or the Republican Party of Arizona, which has gone completely crazy.

[185] Now, of course, Marjorie Taylor Green still represents Georgia in the house.

[186] Big asterisk there.

[187] Which is your point about the Republican Party being stronger?

[188] I mean, imagine if the Republican Party was not carrying, you know, the dead stinking carcass of Donald Trump on its back going into the 2024 election.

[189] They'd have every reason to be optimistic, the 2022 elections.

[190] It would have been a rocky exit, right?

[191] A certain percentage of MAGA folks would have bailed on the party.

[192] There would have been some third party MAGA canis.

[193] They would have lost in primaries.

[194] There would have been a little pain.

[195] Like, you know, you don't make a deal with the devil and not have a little pain coming out of it.

[196] But by now, by September 1, 2020, 3, I think that that's a trade that Mitch McConnell should have wanted to make.

[197] And he just didn't do it.

[198] He went out because he wanted to be the longest serving majority leader and he didn't want to get overthrown.

[199] And it was just an unbelievably horrific consequential decision by him and Kevin McCarthy and and all of the party leaders, really.

[200] And they switched places with Brian Kemp.

[201] I mean, we could only wish.

[202] We'll come back to Mitch McConnell in the moment because he's in the news again.

[203] But before we get into irrational exuberance about Brian Kemp's speech here, can we go to the other end of the spectrum?

[204] I got some feedback this week for some readers like, you guys are too doom and gloom.

[205] I'm like, am I doom and gloom?

[206] I mean, I have a mug shot.

[207] Trump's been indicted four times.

[208] Well, you're not the doom and gloom guy.

[209] You and I had a shot in Freud party.

[210] You know, a week ago here.

[211] And we got some negative.

[212] You guys shouldn't be so happy about all of that.

[213] Whatever.

[214] You know, it's like we need to be much more earnest.

[215] We need not to do this sort of thing.

[216] Anyway, so here's the opposite end of the spec.

[217] And just to remind us how far the party has come.

[218] And I say this as somebody that was so desperate to stop Donald Trump in 2016 that I supported and voted for, I'm wincing.

[219] Can you feel me wincing?

[220] Well, I did the same thing.

[221] So that's okay.

[222] Ted Cruz.

[223] No, okay, Ted Cruz, look at Ted Cruz, who still remains a, I think he's still a part -time senator, full -time YouTube influencer.

[224] Yeah, it does give me a little bit of pleasure on the charts.

[225] He's behind this podcast significantly, and on some weeks, he's behind this and the next level.

[226] So a full -time YouTuber, part -time senator, he's still is, you know, he's still trailing us in the charts.

[227] That's another thing to be happy about.

[228] Why we're just being happy this weekend?

[229] Every week in which we are higher on the charts, the Bullwark podcast, is higher on the charts than Ted Cruz.

[230] podcast is a good week.

[231] Okay, so here's performance artist Ted Cruz, who goes on Newsmax, and he's triggered by these comments from a guy named George Kub, director of the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, and he's really pissed off that this guy suggested that maybe the U .S. government should embrace Canada's recommendation that people only drink two beers per week.

[232] Okay, I'm going to raise my hand.

[233] This is not going to happen.

[234] It's never going to happen.

[235] Okay, but he found some random guy making this proposal.

[236] He goes on Newsmax and in this sort of performance art, he's standing in a bar.

[237] He's wearing, he's wearing this blue, you know, shirt with lots of buttons and a bunch of guys in cowboy hats standing behind him, you know, obviously to do some synchronized drinking.

[238] And here's his rant.

[239] Here is part -time U .S. Senator, full -time YouTube influencer Ted Cruz's rant.

[240] They're trying to go after and regulate ceiling fans.

[241] I've got to tell you, it's hot in Texas.

[242] We don't want to get rid of our ceiling fans.

[243] And now these idiots have come out and said, drink two beers a week.

[244] That's their guideline.

[245] Well, I've got to tell you, if they want us to drink two beers a week, frankly, they can kiss my ass.

[246] No, okay.

[247] Senator, I brought a beer to drink with you.

[248] I'll drink this non -alcoholic beer with you because I'm not allowed to drink on camera, but.

[249] Jesus.

[250] Like we know.

[251] I'll have a sift.

[252] Well, look, I got to say, have you ever seen a brand do more damage to itself than Bud Light, which looks single -handedly seem to destroy themselves?

[253] So I'm glad you're not drinking a Bud Light.

[254] Personally, I'm fond of Shiner Bach, which is a good Texas brand.

[255] I've been to the Shiner Brewery in Shiner, Texas, and I recommend it, and I promise you, this is not alcohol -free beer down here.

[256] Yeah.

[257] Ted Cruz is a good old boy.

[258] He's not going to drink Bud Light.

[259] He's not going to drink late beer.

[260] I'm going to drink Texas beer.

[261] And those liberals are not going to take that away from him.

[262] They can kiss his ass.

[263] Charlie, this is where the little limitation of the podcast is like the visual here Ted Cruz is pretty important.

[264] Number one, here's this man ranting against somebody suggesting that he has less beer while his beer gut is so big that he hasn't seen his manhood since 1999.

[265] Touch my toes.

[266] I ain't touching my toes.

[267] He's sweating.

[268] He's sweating.

[269] His neck is all, like, he's, you know, he's profusely panting.

[270] And then he's like, I can only have two beers.

[271] And then he does, and then when he does the, you can kiss my ass, you like changes, like, leans his shoulder in and stands and does his performative post.

[272] Like he's been practicing in the mirror for a little while.

[273] Yeah.

[274] Just like you, Ivy League Pansy.

[275] Like, are you, you debate club Ivy League Pansy, pretending to be some fucking beer swilling tough guy.

[276] The whole thing is just preposterous.

[277] The whole thing is preposterous.

[278] Like, if there's anybody stupid enough to get fooled by this, they get what they deserve.

[279] That's all.

[280] This guy is such a fucking phony.

[281] Next week, Ted Cruz is going to, you know, come down hard on, you know, the government warnings against drinking paint thinner.

[282] Yeah.

[283] Down here in Texas, we want to drink paid thinner.

[284] We are drinking pain thinner.

[285] I don't know where we're going to go on this.

[286] All right, people are going, when are you guys going to get serious?

[287] Democracy is hanging by a thread.

[288] We are actually being serious.

[289] Okay, so can I do a complete mood change here?

[290] Because just change it up here.

[291] I've been pretty happy, but yeah, sure.

[292] Okay, so I don't know what I did.

[293] I don't know which straw I drew, but I apparently became the designated guy to go on and have to comment about the Mitch McConnell video.

[294] Oof.

[295] And like about three or four times I had to say that was really painful to watch because it is painful to watch.

[296] I haven't been called for that.

[297] Do you think that's a generational thing?

[298] MSNBC is like we need to call in, you know, another old guy that they might be more empathetic?

[299] Or what do you think the reason was for that?

[300] It could be that.

[301] Because what would you have said?

[302] Okay, they show it and you're there going what?

[303] Going, Mitch?

[304] Mitch?

[305] I don't know.

[306] I don't know.

[307] Be careful what you wish for, people, people who are dumping on this.

[308] And, okay, so here comes the comment section.

[309] But I'm looking at that going, this is the danger of, you know, a politics dominated by a gerontocracy.

[310] And, you know, 2024, everybody's thinking it's going to be all these indictments, all these trials.

[311] You know, maybe it's going to be some 80 -year -old guy.

[312] I'm not naming any names here who freezes for 30 seconds, who has those moments.

[313] This is what you get when your entire culture is hanging by the thread of 82 -year -olds.

[314] And I'm sorry if that comes off his ageist.

[315] That's just a fact.

[316] I am worried about this on a couple of levels.

[317] The interesting thing, just getting out the politics, not too macabre.

[318] Kentucky is a Democratic governor, and there's an election in Kentucky this year.

[319] So there's a lot of ends and outs and what have you, is if Mitch can't at some point continue his duties.

[320] Now, there's this appointment rule that they pass that he has to appoint a Republican, but we've already been whispering behind the scenes.

[321] There are some never -Trump Republicans down in Kentucky.

[322] I'd like to see in the Senate.

[323] So, anyway, we'll see while we're in happy talk mode.

[324] As for Mitch and Biden in the age thing, I'll do the positive first.

[325] Joe Biden's comments about Mitch were very generous.

[326] And I had some people be like, well, he's just doing that because, oh, he's old too.

[327] And it's like, I guess.

[328] But still, he could do the thing, you know, and you could imagine, again, we were doing the Brian Kemp, what were some other options.

[329] You can imagine somebody like President Trump, former President Trump in that situation, who's also an old guy being like, yeah, well, I haven't been freezing lately.

[330] You know, people have been asking about my stamina.

[331] I'm not, you know, he could have done.

[332] I thought I was sleepy Joe.

[333] It looks like he's sleepy Mitch.

[334] He's not doing that, right?

[335] He doesn't do any of that.

[336] He talks to Mitch McConnell.

[337] It has paid off.

[338] They've got several bipartisan accomplishments that he can now tell on the campaign when a lot of people said, including myself, by the way, that I didn't think it was realistic, that Biden was doing a little happy talk on how much, you know, he thought he could do from a bipartisan standpoint, given the nature of the Republican Senate.

[339] So that's all good.

[340] And it was all decent, and Biden's response was really good.

[341] Having said that, it does bring up that thought in the back of your mind, though, which is like there but for the grace of God go our democracy, really, if Joe Biden got into a situation like Mitch McConnell was in.

[342] And that is something that I think that is fair to be worried about.

[343] It is fair to be worried about.

[344] And I know we get people who say, you know, stop talking about Joe Biden's age.

[345] Why?

[346] Because you think that denial is really a good strategy here?

[347] because as I talked to your old colleague Mike Murphy the other day, and we could talk about that in a moment.

[348] But, you know, what I told him was, I mean, so far, every conversation I have with a voter, every single one, will eventually get to the question of Joe Biden's age.

[349] Now, some people will say, you know, I'm worried about his age, but I'm definitely going to vote for him.

[350] I'm going to vote for the old guy versus the fascist.

[351] You know, that's not really a problem.

[352] But they worry about it.

[353] I mean, it's a reality.

[354] Every time he comes out and speaks, you know, I find myself struggling to listen to what he is saying as opposed to, why is he walking like that?

[355] He sounds really old.

[356] And if I'm thinking that, then other people are thinking that.

[357] And so let's not pretend it's not there.

[358] I mean, I understand only happy, give us only happy talk about this.

[359] Do not mention this giant elephant in the room.

[360] But Joe Biden's got two problems.

[361] Mike Murphy says two big problems.

[362] Number one, the age problem.

[363] Number two, there is, poll numbers showing that he is not getting credit for the economy, that people don't think that he's a good steward of the economy.

[364] And those two things are really dangerous for an incumbent president.

[365] I don't want to belabor the point on this because, and I think that I'll just say two really quick things.

[366] Like, one, I am not exaggerating or, you know, playing some sort of political game.

[367] I genuinely think Joe Biden's had the best first term of any president of my adult life.

[368] I just, I think it's been better than what obviously Trump and Bush and Obama and Clinton.

[369] So I think he's done a great job.

[370] I've had some things I've disagreed with, of course, which we've talked about, but I think he's done a great job.

[371] But, you know, when he's walking to the lectern, like he looks like, I was thinking about this last night, I was trying to walk into the room.

[372] I had to go get a shirt to wear on Stephanie Rules show at 11 p .m. And, you know, my husband's sleeping and I'm like walking in the dark through the room, like very gingerly, like to not wake him up and I don't want to bump into anything.

[373] And I was like, I just was thinking to myself, I was like, this is kind of how Joe Biden walks, right?

[374] And it's like, you just can't help yourself.

[375] Like, you can't help it.

[376] And people reply and be like, what are you talking about?

[377] He seems.

[378] And it's like, he just doesn't.

[379] Like, like, normal people when they're watching him, it's like, he seems really old.

[380] Has he done the job well?

[381] Could he still conceivably do the job well in the second term?

[382] Yes.

[383] But like, I just find it very weird when people are like, what are you talking about?

[384] It's like, what do you mean?

[385] What am I talking about?

[386] I just, I have eyes.

[387] And like, that's something that I know.

[388] people are going to see, and it's a worry.

[389] And maybe when you look at all, a game everything out, JVL has done this in his newsletter and others, maybe if you game everything out, it's like, okay, that risk is a smaller risk than the other potential risks.

[390] And I'm open to that argument for sure.

[391] And I think that's probably right, really.

[392] But it doesn't mean it's not a risk.

[393] It is a risk.

[394] And again, I understand people say, well, look, we're stuck with it.

[395] Okay, and I acknowledge that.

[396] I mean, I don't think the Democrats have a viable plan B at this particular point.

[397] But I do think that it's important to confront it.

[398] Maybe, you know, look, there are ways of working around this, even in the modern internet age.

[399] Okay, so let's move on to some of the other stuff.

[400] I mean, what did you think of Murphy's critique, Mike Murphy's critique?

[401] I thought Murphy's point about Biden was pretty right.

[402] You know, I brought ways a little bit with him on the Republican party side with love to Mike.

[403] I think that he, you know, on the Biden side, he had the antlers metaphor.

[404] You know, he's like, so people want to live in a fantasy world where what's happening with Biden isn't really happening.

[405] And other people are like, what are you talking about?

[406] I see the antlers.

[407] I thought that was a fair metaphor.

[408] But it feels like he has an antlers problem on the Republican side, which is just like this notion that Trump has all these problems and somebody's going to come save the party from this and someone else is going to win.

[409] But it's like, wow, it's the old meme about like Donald Trump gets indicted, question mark, question mark, question of mark.

[410] Someone else gets nominated to be the Republican Party president.

[411] Trump is dominating in every poll.

[412] His numbers have only gone up since the winter.

[413] There's no sign of him losing any strength.

[414] So I know that people don't want this.

[415] I know there's a lot of people who don't want this, including A .B. Stoddard, who I thought wrote a good piece yesterday, but it's just in my view, it's like, we're staring down the barrel of Trump and Biden and a meteor, I guess, could hit and change things, but as a political commentator and as somebody who has deeply invested in Donald Trump not being president again, I think pretending like we're not staring down the barrel of Biden and Trump is a little bit of folly.

[416] I don't disagree with that, but if you're going to have a conversation about this, this is the time to have it.

[417] We're not going to have this conversation in September of 2024.

[418] So I think clear -eyed recognition of reality is always a good thing, you know, particularly if you're a commentator or if you're a defender of the, you know, of democracy, you at least ought to know exactly what the state of your defense and the state of the attack is, right?

[419] Good information is better than self -delusion.

[420] That's just my point.

[421] Hey, folks, this is Charlie Sykes, host of the bulwark podcast.

[422] We created the bulwark to provide a platform for pro -democracy voices on the center right and the center left for people who are tired of tribalism and who value truth and vigorous yet civil debate about politics and a lot more.

[423] And every day, we remind you, folks, you are not the crazy ones.

[424] So why not head over to thebullwork .com and take a look around.

[425] Every day, we produce newsletters and podcasts that will help you make sense of our politics and keep your sanity intact.

[426] To get a daily dose of sanity in your inbox, why not try a bulwark plus membership free for the next 30 days?

[427] To claim this offer, go to thebullwork .com slash Charlie.

[428] That's thebullwork .com forward slash Charlie.

[429] We're going to get through this together, I promise.

[430] Speaking of delusion, could we dip back into deplorable delusion because you came up with a soundbite that I think is extraordinary?

[431] Have you been spending, are you like spending time listening for your sins, for our sins, Candace Owens?

[432] I'm kind of obsessed.

[433] So I wrote the big feature article on her.

[434] I punished myself through most of June.

[435] listening to her and wrote it.

[436] Remind our listeners who she is for people who are like who spend most of their time in the rational universe.

[437] Yeah.

[438] So Candice Owens was a former Turning Point USA, which is the MAGA College Republicans spokesperson who became a media darling on the conservative side, obviously.

[439] Conspiratorial, a black woman, you know, she looks good on TV.

[440] She's a good presenter.

[441] And, you know, at times she's like floated the idea that she might run for office.

[442] Anyway, she got hired by Ben Shapiro's Daily Wire and now has, I think, very clearly the second biggest podcast and YouTube show behind Shapiro's himself on all of the right.

[443] He's crazy.

[444] Maybe Bannon's is in there too, but I think it's pretty clearly that Candace is the second biggest one.

[445] And so I listened to her whole podcast for a month and wrote a profile on it a couple months back, which you can read.

[446] I think it was called President Candice that kind of posited that she was an inheritor of the Trump's spirit more than a lot of other of the imitators, because she, like, like, like, like, he's obsessed with celebrities, like, talks about, like, talks about pop culture stuff and, you know, it's not, you know, we say that a lot of these politician Trump imitators, like, like Ronda's Santa's getting to the weird culture war stuff in a way that seems weird.

[447] That's not Candace, right?

[448] She's more pop culture like Trump.

[449] So anyway, I don't have to listen to her anymore because the article is already out, but I find myself when things happen wanting to be like, I wonder what Candice thought about this.

[450] just kind of check myself to be like as my MAGA ballast.

[451] And so the other day, and so I have her in my podcast feed, and her new episode came up yesterday or Wednesday or whatever it was.

[452] And I was pretty intrigued by the topic.

[453] Was not on the news, let's say.

[454] Let's listen.

[455] That's a pretty big one, the idea that the president of the United States was involved in having illicit affairs and the media was covering it up.

[456] And I'll take it a step further.

[457] I'll tell you what I heard.

[458] I heard of this directly from the mouth of a secret service agent whose name I cannot remember, but who worked for Barack Obama and his family.

[459] And he said that while Barack Obama was in office, again, this is coming from a secret service agent, that they would help sneak young men into the White House.

[460] It was not a secret of swords that Barack Obama was sleeping with these young men, and that was just a part of their job.

[461] Unbelievable, the press never found out about this, which happens sometimes.

[462] Sometimes you can actually drop off crack cocaine at the White House, And they don't know who did it.

[463] So, yeah, the government can be super hush -hush when they want to be.

[464] And, of course, the media will help them worry those facts.

[465] Wait, wait, wait.

[466] What are we talking about this, like, Kim?

[467] What are you doing to our podcast?

[468] This is this week.

[469] This is from this week, you know?

[470] I feel like you have just come on the bulwark podcast, and you take this truck.

[471] You've just backed it up, and you're just like dumping this toxic shit into our ears.

[472] A million people.

[473] are listening to this.

[474] I mean, a million people.

[475] This is like, she, she does huge numbers.

[476] And yeah, that was, that was her, it was most of the show this week.

[477] That's just a little 50 -second clip.

[478] It was most of her, uh, her most recent show was covering the idea that Barack Obama is actually a secret homosexual.

[479] Oh, God.

[480] Okay.

[481] Everybody knows about this.

[482] They're just sneaking voice in the, there's a little bit of a Q &on wink there.

[483] It's a little bit of a callback to Obama's really a secret Muslim.

[484] Where's the birth certificate?

[485] And it's just right.

[486] It's just asking questions.

[487] It's delicious.

[488] It's just right in the Trump wheelhouse.

[489] I'm going to go take a shower now.

[490] Is it possible that after this aired, you know, she got to call Ms. Owens, it's Ben Shapiro on one.

[491] Ben Shapiro, you know, who used to be the young conservatives intellectual who read books and things.

[492] Like, Ben wants to talk to you about that podcast.

[493] Do you think that happened?

[494] No. No, she got away with, she defended Kanye when he was doing his Nazi anti -Semitic stuff.

[495] Ben is obviously a devout Jew.

[496] And so Ben chastised her a little bit publicly when that happened.

[497] But she didn't lose her show.

[498] She didn't get suspended.

[499] What was that line the New York Times called him?

[500] There was something good.

[501] It was like the conservative it boy intellectual.

[502] I was probably quoted in that story.

[503] Oh, you know what?

[504] I have a book of like my worst takes, but that's like right on the top there, right next to my support for Ted Cruz.

[505] So I'm having this flashback.

[506] The morning I woke up at a hotel in San Francisco.

[507] Francisco.

[508] Okay, bear with me here.

[509] Is this related to Barack Obama being homosexual?

[510] No. You're in San Francisco.

[511] I will be working in Ben Shapiro into this story.

[512] The reason I remember this day so well is because this was I wake up and I look around and I think the hotel is on fire.

[513] The room is filled with smoke.

[514] Actually, it turns out there was just these wildfires that were covering San Francisco in smoke and nothing was going on.

[515] But I remember and it woke me up real fast.

[516] And I also remember, this is weird that Ben Shapiro called me that day.

[517] And there was somebody on his website who had posted some clearly white supremacists, a really racist thing.

[518] And I think he was, he was wanting to know, should I fire him?

[519] Should I get rid of him?

[520] What should I do about it?

[521] You know, this is really bad.

[522] Great story.

[523] Yeah, yeah.

[524] Okay.

[525] So my take was, yes, of course.

[526] You should not be associated with this guy in any way whatsoever.

[527] I have no idea what happened, what he did with this guy.

[528] But in this distant myths of past, in this smoky San Francisco hotel room, I was talking to a Ben Shapiro that gave a shit about what people thought about it, right?

[529] That he was actually concerned, hey, there's some racist stuff on my website.

[530] Is this going to be a problem?

[531] Fast forward to today.

[532] Clearly it's like...

[533] Did he fire the person?

[534] Do you remember?

[535] I don't even remember.

[536] No, I don't.

[537] It was not a close call.

[538] And I assumed he was calling me because he probably knew what I was going to say, and he wanted some validation.

[539] Sure.

[540] But I think I can safely say that he's never going to call me again, and he's not going to listen to my advice again, because clearly this is not something that he worries about.

[541] He does not wake up thinking, boy, my whole reputation is the it boy of conservative intellectuals will be undermined if I have somebody like Candace Owen who is defending Nazis and suggesting that Barack Obama brought boy toys into the White House.

[542] he's going, what are the numbers on this?

[543] Well, you know, I'll tell you what the numbers are, by the way.

[544] Okay, number seven, Apple podcast, political podcasts.

[545] Should we do this?

[546] Number seven, Bannon's War Room?

[547] Number six, NPR Politics Podcast.

[548] Number five, Candice Owens.

[549] Number four, Velshe's Band Book Club.

[550] Number three, MSNBC's prosecuting Donald Trump podcast.

[551] Who's that?

[552] Number two, political podcast, Apple Podcasts Chart, United States of America.

[553] this one, the bulwark podcast, behind only Pod Save America.

[554] I will just closing the loop, I will say, Candace, in fairness, just in the scary side of this, Candice, like, also has like a gazillion YouTube, you know what I mean?

[555] It's a video show.

[556] I'm happy we're beating her on the podcast.

[557] And to close the loop, just for listeners, I don't want any misinformation out there.

[558] Barack Obama, not gay, actually.

[559] Two children.

[560] His wife is Michelle, a woman.

[561] No. I do have many DC friends who probably wish Barack Obama was gay.

[562] but he's not.

[563] This whole thing was just based on some letter from college when he was, like, you know, writing a letter about how he was, like, exploring his, you know, and it's just like, okay.

[564] Cana Soans was, like, a liberal in college.

[565] So you think that she might have a different point of view.

[566] But, well, my favorite part is Kennezoans.

[567] I got this from, you know, word of mouth from a secret service agent whose name I can't remember.

[568] I forget.

[569] I forget.

[570] We've got the source.

[571] I know it's out there.

[572] It's in Hawaii somewhere.

[573] We're going to send investigators.

[574] Secret Service agent gives me, like, this earth -shaking news.

[575] I'm probably going to get the name.

[576] I mean, it's literally the Trump for a certificate thing all over again.

[577] It's just gay, not Muslim.

[578] It's the same playbook.

[579] You know, Trump being like, I have a source.

[580] You know, we're sending people to Hawaii to track this down.

[581] It's the same fucking thing.

[582] 12 years later, time is a flat circle.

[583] Candice Owens doing the Donald Trump stick.

[584] It's just, it's funny, but it's also sick.

[585] I mean, it's sick.

[586] How many people are listening to this?

[587] Where do we go now?

[588] Should we talk about jobless numbers?

[589] Should we talk about the negotiations with China?

[590] Should we talk about?

[591] Jobless numbers are good.

[592] Hey, how about the pharma deal?

[593] Pretty good.

[594] Populous Donald Trump kept talking about how he was going to take on the pharma companies and he wasn't one of these Paul Ryan conservatives.

[595] He was a populist conservative and he's going to lower drug prices and then he folded like a cheap suit as soon as pharma started running some ads against him.

[596] and now Joe Biden, Medicare, negotiating with some lower pharma prices.

[597] That's a pretty good pivot from his Barack Obama gay, straight into Joe Biden accomplishments.

[598] So I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Donald Trump will not be campaigning in 2024 on his health care agenda.

[599] Actually, there's a good piece.

[600] This is strange that I'm going to say this because I'm not, I'm not a solely a fan of the New Republic, but they have a piece by Michael Tomosky.

[601] Makes a great point.

[602] Trump's trials don't interrupt his campaign.

[603] They are his campaign.

[604] This is a great point.

[605] It is really a good point because people are saying, well, is this going to interfere with his ability to run the campaign?

[606] I mean, is this going to distract from his detailed proposals on dealing with pharma?

[607] No, he's not going to be talking about any.

[608] Well, he may, but nope, he could care less.

[609] The point of his campaign is, you know, I am on trial.

[610] I am your victim.

[611] You know, this is the deep state, setting himself up for, you know, the retribution.

[612] But that's absolutely right.

[613] And now, of course, this trial in Georgia is not just going to be televised.

[614] It's going to be live streamed.

[615] I mean, the bad news is when that happens, are we going to have lives at all in 2024?

[616] I mean, I know.

[617] Asking for a friend.

[618] Yeah, seriously.

[619] People are like, oh, well, this will be fun to watch in 2026.

[620] God willing, our constitutional republic is still standing.

[621] But that is a great point.

[622] And I think it's underappreciated.

[623] I also think that it's not great, as you've pointed out many times in this podcast to be.

[624] sitting in a courtroom and having to surrender to a judge and being at the mercy of their schedule all day long when you're supposed to be running for president.

[625] But at the same time, it's not as if he's going to be rolling out his policy proposals and that unfortunately he's going to have to go to court that day.

[626] Yeah, I mean, his trial is going to be, you know, will be the 2024 version of the rallies.

[627] Yeah, he doesn't get to go to the rallies, but he's going to be everywhere.

[628] I mean, everywhere, especially with the streaming.

[629] Okay, so the debate feels like it was a million years ago.

[630] It was totally meaningless.

[631] There was a lot of speculation about, you know, Vivek Ramoswami, the new hotness, the, you know, the surge is coming.

[632] And of course, there's been a lot of buzz, but I'm not seeing the Vivek momentum bump out there.

[633] Is it because basically the fact that he's a sanctimonious asshole kind of negated all of the Maga stuff?

[634] What is your take on Vivek?

[635] Well, I don't think so.

[636] My friends have been in Iowa said actually that his like events have a lot of energy yeah but it's a lot of Trump people so I think part of the problem is right in a different world let's imagine Trump's disappeared right and this is a desantis Ramoswamy Haley race right okay can I go there that's kind of my happy place for a moment okay let's go there let's go to that imagine give me a minute there's no Donald Trump he's gone he's just okay okay I'm sorry back to reality I think in that case Vivek probably jumps from like seven to 20 yeah and you're like wow this what because that's then more reminiscent of the old days or it's like Herman Cain when you jump up after a thing or Carly Fierreo, you know, I think he would have had that.

[637] But that bump was limited by the fact that Donald Trump has 50 % of the primary vote.

[638] I just pulled up the 538 average here because I want to get this right.

[639] So we're today, Trump is 50 .3.

[640] We got DeSantis way down here, way down, way, way down, 14 .8, Ramoswami, 9 .2, Haley, 5 .6.

[641] So before the debate, you know, I'll just pull up a random day, August 9th, Trump 50, DeSantis 14 Ramaswami 7 Haley 3 so Vivek and Haley bump up two points Trump goes down three points that's all that happened nothing happened like it was just storm and fury and takes upon the tree for nothing and I just I think that goes back to what I was saying in the Murphy discussion it's just like okay and that was everybody's big opportunity we think the next debate's going to make a difference it's on Fox business are people going to watch like isn't the shine going to wear off these things people are going to watch the third debate without Trump, and why would Trump go?

[642] So, I don't know.

[643] I do think that Vivek, that he's polarizing, right?

[644] And so I assume that some people were turned off for the fact that he was, what'd you call him, sanctimonious, smarmy asshole?

[645] Yeah, yeah.

[646] Something like that.

[647] There's a longer sentence there, but yeah, that was, that was pretty much.

[648] Yeah, facile, I think he had a bad week.

[649] I mean, I think that to the extent that anybody was paying any attention, I mean, he's just all over the map.

[650] Do you see Trump on Glenn Beck?

[651] Do you see this?

[652] Glenn Beck asked Trump about Vivek for VP and Trump says some nice things about him.

[653] Then he's like, but you know, Glenn, he's getting a little controversial.

[654] When Trump's out there going, maybe dial it back, that should be a wake -up goal.

[655] Okay, so speaking of the opposite of my happy place here, the whole wild ride of somebody like Glenn Beck, Glenn Beck was crazy before crazy was fashionable with the conspiracy whiteboards and all of that stuff, kind of softened the ground for the Alex Joneses.

[656] But then in 2016, there was this apparent epiphany where he said, but I didn't mean Trump.

[657] And he sounded like a never -trumper for a while, right?

[658] He did.

[659] Like, sorry for all of that and seemed to sober up and fly straight.

[660] And that lasted, what, about 10, 15 minutes?

[661] And it's like, no, I'm back with the tribe.

[662] What happened with Glenn Beck?

[663] Yeah, just to get a couple of these things here.

[664] So the Glenn Beck cover was Glenn Beck is sorry about all that.

[665] Yeah, exactly.

[666] The Ben Shapiro quote I was looking for then is actually worse than the one.

[667] We said he was the cool kids philosopher.

[668] That's in the New York Times.

[669] I'm quoting that story.

[670] I'm sorry.

[671] Just throw, oh.

[672] I mean, whoever wrote that has just got to want to slit their throat right now.

[673] That's way worse.

[674] I'm colder in there.

[675] and I feel that way.

[676] Glenn Beck is sorry about all that.

[677] I don't know.

[678] I can't get inside Glenn Beck's head.

[679] This is one while I've been suffering through Candace for the team.

[680] I don't know.

[681] It worried to me. I did get a text from my uncle about something that Glenn Beck said recently.

[682] And so that made me a little bit concerned that he's still out there.

[683] His tentacles are still out there.

[684] But I don't know if this was a gimmick.

[685] I do think that a lot of people genuinely were deeply scared and concerned about Donald Trump and then, you know, realized that they, if they wanted their career lavish lives to continue, they had to get back.

[686] And I think that's probably what happened here.

[687] It was their business model.

[688] I mean, what was his company?

[689] What was the...

[690] The blaze.

[691] Yeah, I mean, so, you know, it basically crashed and burned around him and he realized that if he continued actually having a conscience, you know, and speaking rationally, that he had no business model anymore.

[692] And so he did what all these grifters do.

[693] Speaking of grifters, and you tell me whether this is unfair.

[694] I am somewhat fascinated by the Ron DeSantis super PAC that has raised a gazillion dollars being run by a guy named Jeff Rowe, who I encountered only briefly when he was running the Ted Cruz campaign.

[695] What is his deal?

[696] Because he seems like he's sitting out there burning through a huge amount of cash and DeSantis's credibility at the same time.

[697] But it's kind of a great gig for him, huh?

[698] I mean, although the headline today is that he's begging for another $50 million.

[699] Unbelievable.

[700] Because he hasn't sufficiently tanked the DeSantis campaign?

[701] So I know Jeff pretty well.

[702] A big problem I just have with all of this is that a lot of the political consultancy is bullshit.

[703] Like this whole Spengali thing is bullshit.

[704] It's mostly candidates.

[705] Really?

[706] Strategists happen on the margins.

[707] You know, Trump's strategist was a golf caddy.

[708] Okay.

[709] So like, let's just be real.

[710] Okay.

[711] I think that this stuff matters on the margins.

[712] It matters in House races where people don't know the candidates, right?

[713] But on the presidential level.

[714] So, you know, a lot of this is just PRVS.

[715] And so, you know, I don't think you can blame Ron DeSantis' tank on Jeffero.

[716] Like, it's Ron DeSantis' fault.

[717] He's a very unappealing person.

[718] I think that's the main issue.

[719] But there's a lot of money going through there.

[720] He has spent so far.

[721] This was as of August 1.

[722] 34 million.

[723] 34 million for Ron DeSantis to have fallen to have lost like half of his vote share while he spent 34 million.

[724] Now, the New York Times reporting Maggie Haberman and John Swan, he's asking donors for another 50 million.

[725] And it's like, why are these people burning their money on fire?

[726] I want nothing more than to have the job of just telling rich people to stop giving money to these super PACs and to just give me 10 % of whatever they were going to give as a consulting fee and give the other 90 % to unhoused youth or something.

[727] I just, like, do something with your money that's useful.

[728] Presidential campaigns, it is all worthless.

[729] Like people get to know these candidates.

[730] They are on TV interviews, they're on radio interviews, they're on their sports talk shows, they're on, people are talking about it in their lives, on Facebook, on TikTok, everywhere.

[731] Like, this race is everywhere.

[732] People make these decisions.

[733] What do you think a 30 -second ad, it's like, Ron DeSantis, you know, stood up to Fauci in Florida?

[734] Like, you think that's going to change people's minds?

[735] These people already fucking know that.

[736] They all know that.

[737] This is not a state delegates race, like where you do introductory ads.

[738] And yet, they spent $34 million.

[739] He's lost half his vote.

[740] co -chair.

[741] And now these people are going to keep giving them money.

[742] And I guess it's like, I guess I'm happy that they're separating stupid rich people from their money.

[743] But, you know, at some level, it's like, won't somebody say, don't give Jeffro any more money?

[744] Like, what is the point of this?

[745] I think we can say that.

[746] Don't give Jeffro any more money.

[747] But I mean, and maybe this is not the most significant question, but how do you spend that kind of money?

[748] I mean, where did it all go?

[749] Is it all like on private jets and motorcades and.

[750] Yeah, TV ads, jets.

[751] You know, when I went, to that event in Tema.

[752] They had a five -car motorcade.

[753] They had a bus.

[754] They had security.

[755] You know, so all of that costs money.

[756] They had these huge staffs that are door knocking.

[757] You remember that story about how they had paid door knockers?

[758] Like, why do they think this is used to.

[759] You really think that you're going to pay some burnout who's 25, you know, 12 bucks an hour to go knock on a stranger's door and be like, hey, have you considered Ron DeSantis?

[760] And that that person is then going to change their mind from Donald Trump to run the Sanchez?

[761] Just think logically about this.

[762] And really, as I look at this article, he's probably spent more than 34 million, actually.

[763] That was just through June.

[764] So we're through July and August now.

[765] So he's probably already spent 50 million and once another 50.

[766] It's just, it is astonishing that people, it's like, were you all awake in 2016?

[767] Donald Trump's campaign was his own jet, the golf caddies, tweets, and the rallies.

[768] He didn't fucking run ads.

[769] He didn't have a voter outreach program.

[770] like Joe Biden ran out of money.

[771] It was a Jim Clyburn endorsement in South Carolina and people being scared about Bernie being the nominee and a consolidation from the other candidates that turn things around.

[772] Sometimes I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

[773] I'm like the only one that recognizes.

[774] It's a big business, I guess.

[775] When all of his money's on the line, everybody's beach houses are on the line, nobody's going to go out there and say, hey, maybe we shouldn't spend so much money on presidential campaigns because it's worthless.

[776] And yet there's an old guy billionaire somewhere going, you know what you need to do?

[777] we need to hand out more matchbooks.

[778] Matchbooks with the message, with like the three -point plan, Ron DeSantis.

[779] Because, you know, my first political campaign, I found that I could hand out matchbooks and everybody took the matchbook.

[780] They knew my name.

[781] And, you know, if we just had more, I'm telling you, I'm willing to write out a big check if we put out more car tops.

[782] We need car tops.

[783] Because remember, it's like the drive - through the neighborhoods with the bullhorn.

[784] Yeah, Jeff, I'm really, really concerned.

[785] We don't have enough yard signs.

[786] We need more.

[787] Pathio, Daniel.

[788] We're mass communicating.

[789] You do know this.

[790] You know that's this trend that people are going, you know, I'm telling you, if we don't have this, I just, anyway.

[791] All right, we have a long weekend, which I am looking forward to, seriously.

[792] Same.

[793] So I will see you on the other side, Mr. Miller.

[794] I'll see you on the other side, Mr. Sykes.

[795] I'm looking forward to.

[796] hearing about the first day of school.

[797] I am as well.

[798] And thank you all for listening to this long weekend bulwark podcast.

[799] I'm Charlie Sykes.

[800] We will be back next Tuesday and we'll do this all over again.

[801] The Bullwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper and engineered and edited by Jason Brown.