The Bulwark Podcast XX
[0] Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus Group podcast.
[1] I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the bulwark.
[2] And this week, we are headed once again to America's dairyland, Wisconsin.
[3] Since we last talked about Wisconsin, the Trump -endorsed businessman Tim Michaels, won the Republican primary to face Democratic incumbent governor, Evers.
[4] And there have been a rash of polls showing that Democrat lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes has a real shot against GOP Senator Ron Johnson.
[5] But one thing hasn't changed.
[6] Wisconsin is still an evenly divided and crucial state this election cycle.
[7] So for this week's group, we took the temperature of a bunch of Wisconsin swing voters, all of whom voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
[8] Once again, I am joined by the Bull Works, the one, the only person I know from Wisconsin.
[9] Charlie Sykes.
[10] Hey, Charlie, thanks for being here.
[11] Well, it is great to talk about the cheeseheads.
[12] Good to be back.
[13] So what is it like up there in Wisconsin right now?
[14] Like, what's the vibe?
[15] Oh, man. Is it like fall?
[16] Is it like, what's happening?
[17] It is fall.
[18] Over the weekend, I was down in Austin, Texas, where it was 98 degrees and come back here, and it is a hardcore fall temperature in the 50s.
[19] Sounds great.
[20] Wisconsin, it's September, October.
[21] What can I say?
[22] Are those like your best months?
[23] Is that like when Wisconsin really shines?
[24] No, we have about six weeks of great summer.
[25] Those are our best months.
[26] Okay.
[27] But that's just me. Got it.
[28] Got it.
[29] Okay.
[30] So this is your third time on the show to talk about Wisconsin.
[31] You know more about it than anybody else that I know.
[32] But before we talk about Wisconsin, I'm sorry, we just have to quickly talk about Florida.
[33] I'm sorry.
[34] This was the first group we had.
[35] done since the Ron DeSantis immigration stunt.
[36] And so we didn't want to miss an opportunity to ask these swing voters what they thought about that.
[37] And immigration is now sort of back on the top of people's radars.
[38] It's even been eclipsing abortion as the top Google search.
[39] And it's mainly because of this Ron DeSantis, Martha's Vineyard stunt.
[40] You know, immigration kind of popped up at the top of the group with one guy bringing it up.
[41] Nobody mentioned abortion.
[42] And we found that this This group did not like the DeSantis stuff.
[43] They really didn't like it.
[44] But some of them still said they wanted to see more of a focus on the border from Biden.
[45] So let's listen.
[46] It's absolutely pathetic.
[47] I mean, I can, I understand the, well, I don't really understand the message he's trying to send, but like this is everybody's problem.
[48] Something I mean, they're human beings.
[49] Like, I don't care what country they're from.
[50] That is very much the state of the Republican Party.
[51] It's going to be Trump.
[52] or it's going to be DeSantis.
[53] That will be your choice as a Republican voter.
[54] It's horrible.
[55] I don't have anything else to say other than that.
[56] I mentioned before that, you know, Biden wasn't my, I wasn't the biggest fan.
[57] And still, the thing with immigration is, if I remember, he asked Vice President Harris to take control, go down to the border, let's fix this.
[58] And it's been two years now.
[59] And I don't think anything's changed, if anything, it's gotten worse.
[60] So we have a lack of a national focus on what's going on with immigration.
[61] So these guys, Abbott, they're just taking themselves and just saying, well, let's do this because it doesn't really matter.
[62] No one cares.
[63] So I'm going to do this just to spite you.
[64] So it's to me a lack of national focus on what we're supposed to be doing.
[65] What's the issue?
[66] I mean, do we have a policy or don't we have a policy?
[67] And I don't see anything.
[68] I just, like, feel bad for these people because, like, I think this is all sick just using these people as political pawns.
[69] Like, these are people, you know, and they don't know better because they just want to be here because they think we are the best country ever.
[70] Their situation is terrible.
[71] And, you know, like, DeSantis and Abbott are just using it as, like, just trash that they can throw aside and to make a point.
[72] And it just makes me feel really bad for these people.
[73] So I was very interested to hear what swing voters were going to say about this DeSantis thing, because I could have seen it going either way, but they were pretty firmly mad about it or thought it was a gross thing to do.
[74] What did you think about what they said?
[75] No, I thought that was interesting.
[76] The juxtaposition of the two positions that was a manipulative stunt, but also there's a problem at the border.
[77] You can hold those thoughts in your head at the same time.
[78] And I think that that sort of captures some of the division here in Wisconsin.
[79] But it is interesting how this has.
[80] penetrated through and that people did get the scam element of all of that.
[81] We'll have to see how it plays out because these are swing voters.
[82] And I was really struck by the fact that these are very, very thoughtful people who have really been locked into the news and had been clearly disillusioned with some of their previous votes and were willing to be a more open -minded about it.
[83] I don't know how it plays out with the hardcore mega voters, you know, the Trump -Trump voters in 16 and in 20, the people who are going to turn out and vote for Ron Johnson again, whether or not they see it the same way.
[84] I just don't know.
[85] Yeah, I mean, I suspect the hardcore Trumpers think it's great.
[86] They love all these, this hardcore trolling using real people in their trolls.
[87] But, you know, I'm always interested in these swing voters.
[88] And I'll just say about this group in particular, you mentioned that they were a thoughtful group.
[89] They were quite a thoughtful group.
[90] But they are are like most swing voters that we see these sort of Trump 16 Biden 2020 voters in that they still are oriented as Republicans.
[91] Like they all voted in the Republican primary, but they spent a lot of time lamenting the state of the Republican Party and lamenting the state of the country, how divided we are.
[92] This is also like a quality, I think, of the swing voting groups who like changed their vote from 16 to 20, where they're just like, oh, my God, what is going on?
[93] Let's listen to how they were talking about what a polarized, divided time we live in in this country.
[94] To watch that country mourn the loss of their queen and everyone to wait hours and days in line and walk miles.
[95] Like, that really stood out to me. And I'm like, I wish we had that.
[96] You know, to be so just concerned that you've lost this person that was a good guiding force in your politics.
[97] Like, why can't we have that?
[98] I mean, granted, I feel like with the whole mega thing, that's kind of where they think they are, but like, like, why can't we have something like that where we truly respect our politicians and truly respect our president?
[99] Because I don't feel like there is any respect anymore.
[100] I'll agree with that, but I don't think because the people don't respect the politicians anymore.
[101] It's like I don't trust them anymore.
[102] And I'm seeing this race for governor.
[103] I'm seeing this race for Senate.
[104] And in Wisconsin, it's like the ads are unbelievable.
[105] And there's so much divisiveness right now.
[106] Yeah, England came together for their queen.
[107] Would we come together for the president?
[108] Not in that respect.
[109] I really doubt it because there's just too much, too much separation between left and right.
[110] I remember as a kid, 9 -11, you know, how we all came.
[111] together.
[112] Like, one side of my family loved Bush and the other side hated Bush, but in that time, we knew we had to come together.
[113] And if something like that happened now, I don't think the country would come together.
[114] Like, the country didn't come together for Corona.
[115] And I think, you know, the United States hurt because of it.
[116] You know, I really wish there was someone that can work, even though if they are conservative, that one moment they can come together and work together.
[117] And Biden can't do that.
[118] You know, sometimes I find myself just marinating in the lamentations of the centrist voter because, like, I just feel it so hard.
[119] But they raise an interesting question.
[120] Like, I just wanted to ask you, what do you think would happen if, like, Joe Biden died or Donald Trump died?
[121] Like, how would we as a country react to that?
[122] I think that's an excellent question because we really sense that, you know, first all, the exhaustion with our politics, but also that sense that nothing is going to bring us together, that we're not going to experience anything like the national unity mourning the queen, that we are just too divided.
[123] There is really nothing that's going to pull us together.
[124] We didn't come together for COVID -19.
[125] It's almost inconceivable to imagine the country coming together after 9 -11 again.
[126] And, you know, this is what really struck me about this part of the discussion, how deep that yearning is for some kind of sanity in our politics.
[127] And I think that that's an underappreciated political phenomenon, not just in Wisconsin, but that people are looking around whatever side of the divide you're on.
[128] You're going, this is bad, this is dangerous, this is getting worse.
[129] It didn't always have to be this way.
[130] I wish I didn't have to argue with members of my family like this.
[131] I wish I could turn on television without being absolutely inundated with negative of toxic ads.
[132] So this is an interesting question, where those voters go?
[133] Where are those exhausted disillusioned voters actually end up?
[134] It's weird because it is both a very real phenomenon, but it is one that you hear primarily from this kind of slice of swing voterish that is willing to vote for both parties.
[135] Like people will say in the more partisan groups, right, if you're just like always a Democrat, always a Republican, they'll say like we're too divided, but they'll also kind of be like, we shouldn't be so divided, but also everything is that other political party's fault and those jerks and blah, blah, you know, there's something about the swing voters where it's, it's deeper, but I also think that there's a tendency to overestimate how many of these people there are.
[136] Like I think sometimes people, like my beloved Larry Hogan, will talk about the exhausted majority.
[137] And I'm worried that it is an exhausted minority.
[138] That's, there's like, you know, that it's still like an energized majority on both sides that are hyper -partisan.
[139] But like, these are our people who are like trying to muddle through wishing for sort of a kindler, gentler America.
[140] But this is where leadership could make a huge difference, right?
[141] As if somebody sort of tried.
[142] Yeah.
[143] To tap into this.
[144] Yeah.
[145] To tap into this.
[146] That phrase kept popping up as I was watching the focus group, these are our people here.
[147] And, you know, just a note about Wisconsin, one of the things that I think has been a fixed reality since probably 2010 has been how small the group of swing voters has been.
[148] I mean, our polls don't move very much.
[149] I remember when Scott Walker was the governor here, there was virtually no one who was undecided about anything.
[150] Normally you'd expect that there would be, what, you know, somewhere between your five and 10 percent who'd be undecided.
[151] There were a lot of surveys that found virtually nobody was not locked into a position.
[152] But also, there is that sort of understanding.
[153] underwater exhaustion, because particularly here in Wisconsin, this has been going on a very, very long time, as you know, and it feels like it's ratcheting up.
[154] But you're right.
[155] I don't know that it's the majority who is exhausted, but there is a minority, and it might be larger than shows up in the polls.
[156] And I think the real big question in a midterm election is how many of those just decide, like, screw it and stay home, as opposed to vote.
[157] And even if there's a small group who just say screw it and stay home, who are just too exhausted, who just, you know, a pox on both your houses.
[158] That could be decisive in a state where our statewide elections are decided by roughly 20 ,000 votes.
[159] 100%.
[160] Well, let's talk about it.
[161] Let's talk about those races.
[162] So we'll start with the governor's race.
[163] And it's one of the more competitive governor's races in the country.
[164] You know, I was talking about how nice people are from Wisconsin.
[165] And they were just as nice about Evers, not because they think he's perfect, but because they clearly give him the benefit of the doubt.
[166] Let's listen.
[167] I am not decided 100%, but I like at this point, Ivers a little bit better.
[168] He hasn't ruined Wisconsin.
[169] Wisconsin's fiscally responsible.
[170] We don't have pension debt.
[171] We don't have any of these other issues that neighboring states might have.
[172] If our legislature would have worked with him on things, we might have got something done.
[173] Again, that's the divisiveness that we always see across the U .S. But regardless, he is getting stuff done.
[174] I like his demeanor.
[175] He doesn't seem to have the hot head that Trump had.
[176] And for some reason, I could definitely see Michael's having that same type of reaction if something were to go wrong.
[177] Well, I'm probably 98 % will be Evers.
[178] I mean, he's from my backyard.
[179] I mean, he's from Plymouth.
[180] He just resonates.
[181] Wisconsin.
[182] You know, he doesn't have any real air about him.
[183] I think Evers has done a pretty good job.
[184] I mean, he came in at probably the worst time anybody could start a new job.
[185] I mean, right in the middle of cold, but he was under fire, but it wasn't like the guy had a playbook to follow to know what to do.
[186] We were all new to this.
[187] And, you know, I guess he didn't tell us to inject bleach.
[188] So, you know, that's a plus.
[189] I kind of forgot about that jump from the Trump history books.
[190] So this last guy was the one guy in the group who said he would probably vote for Michaels, if the election were today.
[191] But he was still very cordial and nice about Evers.
[192] It's a weird thing for a lot of these swing state governors because on one level, people have been kind of waiting to take their shots at them over COVID and like the way that they didn't like the way a lot of these Democratic governors handled COVID.
[193] This group certainly was not particularly down on Evers.
[194] So what do you think the mood of the state is on Evers right now?
[195] That was what was most interesting, I think, in the take, because Evers is certainly not charismatic.
[196] He's certainly not a strong political figure.
[197] I think you was elected in 2018 primarily because he was not Scott Walker.
[198] But unlike Scott Walker, he is not a polarizing figure.
[199] As you could tell from that focus group, people don't have strong feelings about him.
[200] And that may work in his favor because it's hard to gin up, work up, you know, a sense of real outrage about Tony Evers, who, again, is kind of a bland figure in many ways.
[201] but I noticed the one guy who was thinking of voting for Michael seemed to really focus on the fact that he likes businessmen in government.
[202] But I also noticed how many people perhaps voted for Trump the first time around because they thought that he was a good businessman, and we need more businessmen in government and are now realizing that that did not work out.
[203] So I don't know how this one's going to play out.
[204] It's going to be very, very close.
[205] I think that Michaels is probably not the strongest candidate.
[206] has a lot of baggage.
[207] Again, people are not passionate in the need to oust Tony Evers.
[208] And I think that probably helps him.
[209] Yeah, I want to jump in here and talk about Michaels.
[210] But before I do, you raise something actually.
[211] So in every Flipper group, we have an extended conversation at the top where we ask them about why they voted for Donald Trump in 2016.
[212] And then, you know, why did they change their vote to Joe Biden in 2020?
[213] And like, these conversations are very consistent.
[214] You know, I thought he was a businessman.
[215] He wasn't a politician.
[216] I thought he told the truth.
[217] Then he gets in there and he governs.
[218] And they're like, oh, that's not what I wanted.
[219] This guy's crazy.
[220] This guy's insane.
[221] He's embarrassing us on the world stage.
[222] And these flipper voters tend to be very, you know, like Donald Trump really burned them and like left a lasting impression.
[223] And to your point, then I think with Michaels where he reminds them of Trump and they know that he was endorsed by Trump, that that is actually causing them to be much less pro -Michaels because he fits an archetype that they've been burned by before.
[224] Like, I actually think that's a really smart observation you just made.
[225] Well, and also, I found this extremely interesting listening to your focus group.
[226] The number of them that spontaneously raised, a number of the ads that are running on the air.
[227] And by the way, here in Wisconsin, we are just being pounded with ads in the governor's race and in the Senate race.
[228] So the big question is always, does anything break through?
[229] Does it make a difference?
[230] There is a new anti -Michaels ad that points out all of the charges of sexual harassment.
[231] that would have been lodged against his company and the bad record on sexual harassment.
[232] And then it asked the question, well, if this is the way, you know, he runs the company, you know, how will he run Wisconsin?
[233] And this came up during the focus group.
[234] And that tells me, again, that it is having some traction.
[235] And in people's minds, perhaps it is connecting.
[236] Tim Michaels was some of the downsides of Donald Trump as well.
[237] Yeah.
[238] All right.
[239] Let's get into it because we have sound from that ad.
[240] You're totally right.
[241] So let's jump in and let's listen to what these voters had to say about Michaels.
[242] When I first saw his, I think it was one of his initial ads on television, he's driving this truck.
[243] He's got this, like, just an open shirt on.
[244] He's got a little bit of growth going on there.
[245] He goes, you know, I'm not, I'm not a politician.
[246] I'm a businessman, blah, blah, blah.
[247] And I'm thinking to myself, this guy sounds pretty good.
[248] You know, he sounds sort of Trump -like.
[249] Well, of course, then it comes out there.
[250] Well, Trump endorsed him.
[251] And then he built a model of the wall.
[252] That's one of his pillars of strength that he had a proposal for the wall.
[253] But now as it moves forward, and I hear some of his other parts of the platform, I'm nonplussed with him.
[254] The fact I learned he has million dollar estates outside of Wisconsin, his kids go special prep schools or whatever it is.
[255] I'm not too sure.
[256] I guess I'm on the side.
[257] I don't know as much about Michaels as I probably should.
[258] I voted for him in Primer just because he's a businessman background.
[259] And, I mean, we're just getting bombarded with ads for him and, you know, Mandela Barnes and Ron Johnson and every other commercial.
[260] And what just popped yesterday about Michaels and sexual harassment suits in his business?
[261] And I knew nothing about that.
[262] So whether that's true or not, that kind of put me on the fence if that's a thing or not.
[263] And, of course, Michaels had to parade his wife across the stage and wanted her to have all the attention and made a big deal of saying, Oh, everywhere I go, she's with me. Well, I'm thinking, yeah, we know why you're saying that right now because ads are coming out of all the problems that you're having.
[264] So great.
[265] And I was in real estate for a number of years, and Michael's construction and their quarries, they're very ruthless in business.
[266] They don't really care about the environment, what they do.
[267] They just come in and get what they want.
[268] Well, that reminds me an awful lot of someone else we don't like.
[269] So that's where I met.
[270] Michael sounded great, but then it's just like he just reminded me of then Ron Johnson and and Trump in the beginning, you know, businessmen, they're going to try and do something different, but then, you know, they aren't what they say.
[271] And I used to work in the plumbing field.
[272] And like I know of Michael how ruthless he is for just how he got that area down on the south side.
[273] just they don't care the pollution that's going into the Milwaukee River from that building at all.
[274] It's terrible.
[275] So yeah, so these attacks on his business practices seem to like really be landed.
[276] And I guess since you're there, is it working because people have like a lot of context for it?
[277] Like it sounds like these people knew something about his businesses and what they were doing.
[278] I have to say that they knew more about his business than I did.
[279] The thing about Tim Michaels, I mean, the company is well -known.
[280] He himself is not well -known.
[281] He actually did run for United States Senate back back in the day in the before times.
[282] He ran a very mediocre campaign and lost.
[283] It's like 2004, right?
[284] Right.
[285] But then he disappeared completely from Wisconsin.
[286] He moved out to Connecticut, built himself a multi -million dollar house and his kids to school out there, and he's basically been absent from Wisconsin politics.
[287] And so I think what you're seeing now is that he has to reintroduce himself, and he's not well -known.
[288] here in Wisconsin.
[289] And because he's been absent for so long, he really is kind of not ready for prime time.
[290] He was not particularly impressive during the primary, even though he did win with Trump's endorsement.
[291] He has not put together a really stellar campaign.
[292] So the Democrats have stolen a march by going after his strength.
[293] And I think that's what's so interesting.
[294] If his strength is, I am a successful businessman, they have gone right after that and apparently are scoring some point.
[295] Whether it makes a difference in the end, I don't know.
[296] But again, it's a sign of his vulnerability against a Democratic incumbent who, on paper, should be quite weak.
[297] Yeah, actually, let's just listen to the ad that they were talking about.
[298] At a company, the culture comes from the top.
[299] Tim Michael's company has been sued numerous times over sexual assault and harassment in the workplace.
[300] Women who worked for Michael's company said they were groped, assaulted, and pressured to have sex with their bosses.
[301] Higher ops at Michaels, dismiss the women as liars, and even fired those who spoke out.
[302] Is that what we need for Wisconsin?
[303] Tim Michaels, too radical, too divisive.
[304] Ooh, big yikes.
[305] Yeah, well, that was my reaction to it.
[306] Well, so here's my question about, like, the experience of the ads.
[307] Because this, in all the focus groups now, it is funny how two things are true.
[308] One, they hate the ads so much.
[309] And two, everything they know about any candidates based on the ads.
[310] Correct.
[311] So, like, the ads work.
[312] The ads are doing important things to define candidates drive up negatives.
[313] Like, there's a reason there's an error on this stuff.
[314] But, like, what's it like when you're just watching TV and was kind of like...
[315] Wall to wall to wall to wall.
[316] I mean, and they're all, at this point of the campaign, they're all negative.
[317] It feels like.
[318] Yeah.
[319] At what point do you start to, like, turn on.
[320] the candidates just because you can't stand their stupid face in another ad.
[321] See, that's an interesting question.
[322] That's why we come back to this question of, at what point do voters become exhausted, just disgusted by it?
[323] And does that affect turnout?
[324] I mean, obviously, it would be in the interest of some of the candidates to just disgust swing voters to the point where they just throw up their hands and decide to sit home.
[325] But Wisconsin has pretty high turnout.
[326] And look, we're not new to tough campaigns.
[327] So I don't know, but we've never seen anything like this.
[328] One other point, though.
[329] So going back to the point about how Michaels is not well known, one of the reasons why I think that that ad is having some effect is there's not this gigantic reservoir of goodwill for him personally.
[330] He doesn't have deep roots in the state where a lot of voters would go, okay, that sounds bad, but we know this guy, and therefore we're going to rally around him.
[331] If you ran an ad like that against, and I'm sorry to pick a name out of the air here in Wisconsin unfairly, but if you ran an ad like that against, say, you know, Tommy Thompson, legendary former governor here, it wouldn't have the effect because the voters would say, look, he's our guy, we know him, we're willing to cut him some slack.
[332] Tim Michaels doesn't have that advantage because he's parachuted in with Trump's endorsement so it's wide, but not necessarily deep.
[333] You know, and this is actually such a critical part of the contours of any race.
[334] Because you can look at a bunch of the people that Trump grabbed and like who's kind of withering on the vine and who's doing well.
[335] And a lot of the difference tends to be whether or not they have that sense of place or they have a reputation.
[336] Like, Carrie Lake is doing much better in Arizona because she is very well known in Arizona.
[337] And everybody says it in the focus groups.
[338] They're like, well, she's in my living room for 20 years, right?
[339] And so they trust her and they have a relationship with her.
[340] Herschel Walker is like beloved in Georgia because he was this longtime football player.
[341] that is helping them in ways that for like the Blake Masters or Dr. Oz, that's right, people who are not of the place.
[342] It's like underappreciated how much that is part of the story about how these races are shaping up.
[343] Okay.
[344] Okay.
[345] So what everybody's been waiting for, though, is the sound on Ron Johnson.
[346] We got to talk about this Senate race.
[347] The last conversation we had, you and I were 100 % on the same page about Mandela Barnes, just being a poor fit for this cycle in Wisconsin.
[348] But I, after listening to this group, I'm like, I don't know, I'm moving on this a little bit.
[349] And the reason is, is like, Mandela Barnes through the summer was actually outperforming expectations.
[350] But you and I, we talked about this.
[351] Like, the Republican money's come in.
[352] Man, they're going to remind people of this guy's activist career.
[353] But this group just really is out on Johnson, like the same way that they're out on Trump.
[354] Let's listen.
[355] I think I probably voted for the other guy in the prime rights member's name because it was a vote against Ron Johnson.
[356] He's just nuts.
[357] Pardon my psychology here, but he's just nuts.
[358] It got to the point where just say nothing, he'd be better off.
[359] It's almost like Trump again, you know.
[360] Now it's basically a vote against Ron Johnson, his insanity that has become because of Trump, you know.
[361] Ron Johnson seemed like a great candidate.
[362] You know, he was the working guy that he'd.
[363] Help clear out all the same old, same old, and the stuff that comes out of his mouth is just insanity.
[364] Like, it sounds like it's coming out of my father's mouth who has no politic experience at all.
[365] And he literally just randomly picks Republican just because.
[366] I can't vote for Johnson with all those fake ads.
[367] His ads are BS and he's got all these, not, I don't want to sound racist, but he's got all these black people that he probably has.
[368] hasn't been around 10 black people other those commercials in his life.
[369] I just, I can't do it.
[370] And the whole Trump stuff that he was pushing that agenda, he's nuts.
[371] I mean, nuts, insane.
[372] They have some harsh words for Mr. Johnson here.
[373] But this is the thing.
[374] So is it possible, Charlie, that we have been underestimating just how much people hate Ron Johnson?
[375] Like, could Barnes win on Johnson hatred alone.
[376] I have three words for you.
[377] Walk a Shaw Christmas parade.
[378] And it is not breaking news that Republicans all around the country are pounding the crime issue, but it is really intense here in Wisconsin.
[379] And very specifically, if you are in this state, you're going to be hearing wall -to -wall about the massacre at the Waukesha Christmas parade, where you had some demented individual with a car who mowed down a number of individuals, killed them, including, you know, the dancing grannies, et cetera.
[380] That trial, by the way, is beginning here in Wisconsin now.
[381] And the reason it is so toxic is because the guy who killed all the people at the Walker Show Christmas Parade was out on a very, very small cash bail.
[382] So the cash bail issue has become the new defund the police here in Wisconsin, and Mandela Barnes is all in an abolishing cash bail.
[383] And every other ad, you see on the...
[384] the air is about Mandela Barnes wanting violent criminals on the street and abolishing cash bail.
[385] And he has not backed off from that.
[386] And he has tried to counter that by citing support from law enforcement officials.
[387] And that has not gone well because we had a number of them who, you know, law enforcement officials, including sheriffs who have said, no, I really am not supporting Mandela Barnes, even though I'm listed as doing it.
[388] So to your question, I'm sorry, It's sort of the long way around is if Mandela Barnes wins this, it will be because of Johnson hatred because the Johnson is just too embarrassing, too crazy, too extreme, too Trumpy for Wisconsin.
[389] And he clearly is a tremendous motivating factor to turn out Democrats.
[390] I mean, this is the engine that will turn out voters from Dane County and Milwaukee County.
[391] Unlike Tony Evers, who is not offensive, Ron Johnson is the ultimate polarizing figure.
[392] So, yes, the downside is that Mandela Barnes has taken a lot of positions that are a oppo researchers dream.
[393] And if you are here, you're just now seeing the boulder rolling down the hill on all of that.
[394] So I remain skeptical.
[395] But did it surprise you, like how much they hated Johnson?
[396] Because I will say, and we'll play their sound on Barnes, but like every single one of them said that they were going to vote for Barnes, including our dude who said he was going to vote for Michael's.
[397] I think there were two of them that said they were not going to vote.
[398] Oh, that's right.
[399] No, no, no, you're right.
[400] But this was super interesting to me. I actually just tweeted about it.
[401] So everyone said they were going to vote for Barnes except for those two women.
[402] And they both said that they didn't know if they could vote for Barnes, but they were absolutely not going to vote for Ron Johnson and that they might just leave it blank.
[403] And like, how much of that could happen?
[404] Like, there's that dynamic where they're like, I'm not going to vote for this Barnes guy, but like, I cannot.
[405] I cannot.
[406] I cannot.
[407] not affirmatively vote for Ron Johnson.
[408] Well, and see, this is why it might be decisive in Wisconsin because, and we've talked about this before, I mean, Wisconsin politics is about turning out your base in big numbers.
[409] But then there are these swing suburban votes, the Wow counties, Waukesha, Ozaki, Washington County, used to be overwhelmingly Republican.
[410] And that's where Donald Trump lost a lot of ground compared to other Republicans in those counties.
[411] A lot of those folks did not vote for Donald Trump in 16, more of them didn't vote for him in 20, which is really why he lost Wisconsin.
[412] But Johnson has done relatively well in those areas.
[413] If there is a Trumpist -like falloff in the vote in the wow counties and Democrats turn out, that could be fatal for him.
[414] So if you do have voters who go, I'm embarrassed by his conspiracy theories, you know, he continues to sound off about COVID, his position on abortion, et cetera, you could see that.
[415] But also, you have to ask yourself in that last four weeks, if their airwaves are just being pounded by crime ads and things like that, they might come home.
[416] They might.
[417] I will say, I just, I was so interested listening to this group that I went back and watched the Republican group that you and I talked about previously when we were talking about the primaries.
[418] and there were like three women in that group who were like, I can't vote for Ron Johnson.
[419] Because I remember you and I talked about like how weak he was with these Republicans and how if they'd had a better Democrat that like absolutely Johnson could get picked off right now.
[420] Right.
[421] But I just went back and like refreshed my memory and they were just totally open to voting for a Democrat.
[422] And those were the Republicans like full on.
[423] These are these swing voters.
[424] But those those were like hardcore Republicans and they hated Johnson.
[425] So I just feel like.
[426] like this could be an upset.
[427] But I take your point on the cash bail, but let's listen to what the voters had to say about Barnes.
[428] Because I will say the cash bail thing didn't come up in their comments.
[429] So let's listen.
[430] I'm just really not sure.
[431] I know I can't vote for Ron Johnson.
[432] I'm not sure Mandela Barnes is qualified.
[433] So I know it's not the right thing to do, but it might not vote for either because I'm not sure.
[434] Not a big Barnes fan because I don't know that he's qualified to be senator.
[435] He's been Lieutenant Governor, which doesn't really do anything near as I can tell.
[436] So he's done good look and that's where he's going to get votes and he's the anti -Ron Johnson.
[437] So that might be where I'm leaning.
[438] I haven't really decided yet.
[439] Again, those ads are just non -stop too.
[440] When you look at the ads, there's Ron Johnson running on like fiscal responsibility, we're spending too much.
[441] He's going to rein it in.
[442] And then you have Mandela Barnes who talks about his upbringing with his parents that are you know working and he's making a peanut butter sandwich um and it's like the down home type of thing right now i i am leaning towards barns and it's probably uh not 6535 but probably 70 30 for barns at this point in time i don't know a lot about what mandela has done i don't know a lot about him i guess so that would be my hesitation with him but i know i cannot vote for Ron Johnson.
[443] So number one, what they seem to know about Mandela Barnes when they talk about him is like the personal story stuff that he was doing over the summer about his family.
[444] But they didn't bring up the cash bail attacks from this like barrage of ads that McConnell is running.
[445] Did that surprise you?
[446] No, but it made me somewhat skeptical of the uniform support for him.
[447] Because if you're in Wisconsin, you've seen those and they're a big issue.
[448] And there's some other stuff as well.
[449] And we should mention these Mitch McConnell ads.
[450] There's a potential for backfiring because they're the ones that show Mandela Barnes with the squad, with AOC, and with Elon Omar, and says, you know, Mandela Barnes, different.
[451] And then it morphs into dangerous.
[452] Like, while that's really subtle playing the race card, the nice way of putting it is borderline, the more direct way of putting it is it goes beyond a dog whistle.
[453] So will that work?
[454] But this is a state that is overwhelmingly white and that they figured they're going to be playing that particular card.
[455] I was watching this group.
[456] This group was kind of like a middle -aged group.
[457] And there was like a couple of just like very standard old white guys in it.
[458] And like one of them was the guy who was like 70 -30 going for Barnes.
[459] You know, this guy's been a Republican, voted for Trump the first time.
[460] Like seems to be fine voting for Barnes.
[461] And I don't know.
[462] I don't know either.
[463] You know, One of the things that I thought was interesting is this group was quite adamant, quite clear about how they felt about Donald Trump.
[464] You know, when you asked them how they felt about Joe Biden, some of them were wishy -washy, but if I remember correctly, when they were asked if there was a rematch between Biden and Trump, who would you vote for?
[465] And every one of them said Biden.
[466] So this is a very, very anti -Trump group.
[467] But in Wisconsin, because everything is on a razor's edge, the Democrats need to get every single one of those votes.
[468] Right.
[469] every single one of them.
[470] And so one of the questions I was asking, is there any fall -up?
[471] And so going back to our previous discussion, I think that there were a lot of voters who were really looking for an invitation to vote for someone other than Johnson.
[472] And I guess the big question mark is whether Mandela Barnes is going to be able to fulfill that.
[473] I could certainly imagine other Democrats, including more generic Democrats or more centrist Democrats, who I think would have had a better shot.
[474] But you're right.
[475] I mean, this group, was certainly not carrying any water for Ron Johnson.
[476] And they clearly have been paying attention to what Johnson's have been saying in the way he's been carrying himself.
[477] Okay.
[478] I'm sorry to do this to you.
[479] Do you know what's about to happen right now?
[480] No. Okay.
[481] So we did Michaels, we did Johnson.
[482] We did the races.
[483] But now I've just got to talk to you about something that happened in this focus group.
[484] That was maybe the most laugh out loud, funny thing.
[485] that I've ever heard happen in a group where, and I'm just gonna play it for you, but then you and I are gonna have talk about it.
[486] So just prepare yourself.
[487] Let's listen to, as one woman was just sort of winding herself up about the evils that Donald Trump has unleashed on our culture, she started going in this direction.
[488] I'm a teacher and I feel like once you kind of allow something different, like right now in schools is kind of like gender identity.
[489] and the furries that are in schools.
[490] I mean, this is a real thing.
[491] Like, kids just had a job fair and education fair, and there were literally probably 15 kids there that were furries.
[492] And what has happened to society?
[493] Once you allow someone, like, maybe Trump as president, and then everything he says and does and tweets, and it kind of filters down, like, to our kids, and you wonder what is going on?
[494] Like, it's just a little bit, What do you mean a furry?
[495] Furry?
[496] Well, I told my 82 -year -old mother, I thought she was going to have a heart attack.
[497] She's like, you're mine.
[498] I go, okay, monkeypox and furries are real, by the way.
[499] So she's like dressed and stuffed animals?
[500] They identify as a cat.
[501] They identify as a dog.
[502] Kids identify as cats and dogs.
[503] Yep.
[504] They had collars on.
[505] They had a leash.
[506] I mean, they were.
[507] You physically saw this?
[508] Yes.
[509] I have a special litter box in the bathroom.
[510] Yes.
[511] No. But that's the thing around our school districts.
[512] It's like, oh, they're going to ask for litter boxes next.
[513] And I mean, I've never seen anything, but.
[514] I mean, I didn't see the litter box.
[515] I mean, at the schools.
[516] I heard about that.
[517] It could be a rumor.
[518] Like, I literally saw them for the first time yesterday.
[519] And I thought, oh, no, what is happening with our country?
[520] Oh, my God.
[521] It's like a slippery slope.
[522] You know what I mean?
[523] It's a slippery slope of morals and character.
[524] And once you kind of allow that piece when you think of January 6th, all of a sudden you kind of lose that line of human decency and behavior, that code, you know, like George Washington's like code of conduct rules.
[525] I have my classroom.
[526] They're amazing.
[527] You know, cover your mouth on you yawn.
[528] Like I feel like we have lost that, but I'll stop talking.
[529] No, that's super new to me. but I feel like we'll be here all night if I ask you a bunch of questions about it.
[530] Okay.
[531] I mean, obviously, George Washington...
[532] Is it too early to start the day drinking?
[533] George Washington would definitely not have tolerated furries.
[534] I have to ask you, is this a thing that's happening in Wisconsin?
[535] Are all the children?
[536] The teenagers, are they dressing up as animals and identifying as cats and dogs?
[537] Should I be morally panicked about this?
[538] Well, apparently, the litter box is the new same -sex bathroom issue.
[539] I don't know.
[540] I was particularly struck by not only that she's concerned about the furries, but connecting the dots from furries to Donald Trump and to January 6th, I, oh boy.
[541] See, this is why, Sarah, you have a different perspective on politics than the rest of us, because you spend time with people who make connections that would never have occurred to us otherwise.
[542] And no, I don't think we have a major furry problem in Wisconsin.
[543] However, I do remember growing up that there were kids who would dress like Batman and who were dressed like cowboys and dressed like, you know, Chewbacca.
[544] But I never connected that with the decline of Western civilization.
[545] So I got to say, I engaged with this just with pure joy because I just thought it was funny.
[546] And I also was like, I don't know a lot about furries, but I do know that it is not.
[547] not the same thing as identifying as a cat or a dog.
[548] I'm also quite certain to this thing about them putting litter boxes in schools because people identify as cats is like got to be a hoax or like it happened in one insane place, but like it's not a plague afflicting our land.
[549] But like listening to this group of people like engage with her as she was like, no, this is real.
[550] This is really happening.
[551] And them all being like, wow, kids are identifying as cats or dogs.
[552] This is actually a slightly important point that I want to make about the way that serious now.
[553] It is a tale as old as time that teenagers do weird things and their elders are shocked by them.
[554] But it is, this was obviously wrapped up in this idea of like gender identity.
[555] And she wasn't trying to like be mean about gender identity.
[556] She just, she was going to this next place.
[557] But it seems like there's a lot of middle aged folks who are, who are primed to be horrified by all the newfangled phenomena, much of which is.
[558] pretty standard teens being weird pushing boundaries is not actually like gender identity like the actual conversation around trans issues but it's the kind of thing that I think makes people say like oh yeah you know country's really off the rails well I think that's it's that sense that things are falling apart that there's chaos so that anything you see that is out of the norm instead of going saying well you know that's you know whatever you go okay there's another indication that things are falling apart that there are these cracks these these fissures so let me tell you how it's going play out, Sarah, about the furry thing and the litter box.
[559] It's going to be multiple segments on the Tucker Carlson show on Fox News about you think this is a joke, but it's really happening.
[560] Why are they doing this?
[561] Why does the ACLU want to have mandatory cat litter boxes in every one of your child's classrooms?
[562] And you know, within a week, Ron DeSantis is going to be proposing legislation banning litter boxes in public schools in Florida.
[563] And then Ron Johnson will be asked about it and will say, hey, we're just trying to get to the truth, just asking questions about what's in those litter boxes.
[564] Just asking questions.
[565] I want you to write this down.
[566] Charlie is predicting that this is going to be a thing.
[567] Oh, man. Well, that's it.
[568] That's your moment of Focus Groups -en, everybody.
[569] buddy.
[570] Charlie Sykes, this is the last one you have to do until maybe we do a postgame, depending.
[571] But I really appreciate.
[572] I think you're our first three -peat guest.
[573] I appreciate you coming, breaking down Wisconsin.
[574] It's always a pleasure to have you here.
[575] Thank you.
[576] And thanks for listening to another week of the Focus Group podcast.
[577] Make sure you go, leave a comment.
[578] And to celebrate Charlie Sykes, I will close by saying, come back next week.
[579] We're going to do this all over again.
[580] Bye -bye.