The Bulwark Podcast XX
[0] Hello and welcome to the Bullwark podcast.
[1] We have emerged from our government -imposed darkness and made it to daylight savings time.
[2] I'm so excited about that.
[3] We've got Bill Crystal here.
[4] Bill, how you doing?
[5] I'm fine, but you're pro -daylight savings time?
[6] Permanent daylight savings.
[7] Permanent daylight savings.
[8] I want to be able to take my child to the park after school.
[9] It is very confusing to me that anybody would not be for this because they want it to be light at 6 .30 in the morning for some reason.
[10] I don't understand these people, and I'm happy that we've.
[11] successfully, once again, just ripped the shackles of their daylight oppression.
[12] I'm for having one thing through the year.
[13] I'm very much against having an hour stolen from us unaccountably.
[14] And you wake up Sunday morning and suddenly it's, oh, my God, it's so late.
[15] Yeah, I'm with you.
[16] Permanent daylight savings time forever.
[17] Folks, stick around to the end.
[18] We've got Sarah Longwell's here.
[19] We're going to talk a little bit about her focus groups and we're doing our first mailbag segments.
[20] You're not going to want to miss that.
[21] Okay, Bill, before we get to the Biden ad and her testimony and Orban and a rant that I have, there's some audio from the weekend of the sender from Alabama, Katie Britt, that I'd like us to listen to together.
[22] First and foremost, I'm a mom.
[23] And like any mom, I'm going to do a pivot out of nowhere into a shockingly violent story about sex trafficking.
[24] And rest assured, every detail about it is real, except the year where it took place and who was president when it happened.
[25] This Scarlett Johansson at Saturday Night Live doing her Katie Britt.
[26] I spent a lot of time with this with Will over the weekend, but at that point we hadn't gotten, there was an independent journalist, former AP reporter, we kind of tracked down.
[27] The most shocking element of her rebuttal was kind of the fake crying that she was doing when talking about a real story that everyone should have sympathy for about a rape victim.
[28] But the problem was she was heavily implying this was happening because of the Biden border policies.
[29] And the event happened in 2004 during the Bush administration.
[30] In Mexico.
[31] In Mexico.
[32] 500 miles from the border.
[33] I'm a terrible, of course.
[34] But I'm not a huge S &L fan these days, but it was excellent the skit with Katie Britt.
[35] And my only thought about it is, wasn't she supposed to be the Normie Republican and the sound choice for VP, the Chamber of Commerce favorite, the former Shelby, chief of staff?
[36] I mean, it shows how crazy the, I mean, leaving aside, Scarlett, Johannes, but the actual speech she gave and the attempt to be hyperbolic and, you know, I don't know what you call that even with, you know, this particular emoting and performative stuff.
[37] It was sort of a nice snapshot of establishment republicanism in the age of Trump.
[38] Yeah, and it's a snapshot, I think, of how uncomfortable they are still, right?
[39] Like, they're all faking it, right?
[40] I think it is a parable or just a microcosm, I guess, of a broader trend, which is all these guys don't.
[41] don't really know what they're supposed to do to appeal to Maga World.
[42] And so they're faking it.
[43] And so she was just faking it in the most ostentatious way possible.
[44] One thing I was thinking about before I went to bed last night.
[45] And Bill, I always want your historical perspective.
[46] So I rewatch Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindel's speeches, which were markedly better than the Katie Britt speech, honestly, if you, like, just watched them all back to back.
[47] I was worried I had recency bias.
[48] Then that made me think, is this the worst political speech of all time?
[49] And because, like, when I think about the things that have been terrible, like the Mark Sanford press conference or the Gary Hart Press.
[50] I think they're always like press conferences or debates, Admiral Stockdale, I couldn't think of like a set speech where you, nobody's questioning you.
[51] You get to prepare, it's on your own terms, and you still faceplant that epically.
[52] So I didn't prepare you for this.
[53] But anyway, I just want to leave that little Mark.
[54] I wouldn't quarrel with the worst.
[55] And, you know, just one tiny, for note, it's not as if she wrote this personally or she and her very small Senate staff, who aren't used to the national pressure, had to do this.
[56] This was done for her by the entire Republican establishment, by the senatorial committee, by the RNC.
[57] She would have had access to Mitch McConnell's staff.
[58] You know, I know how these, you know, too, how these responses to states.
[59] Specifically, the two people that were coaching her were the RNC, my former colleagues of the RNC, Katie Walsh and Mike Shields, who were, you know, at the top of the RNC establishment, right?
[60] So it wasn't as if like it's some random Alabama yokels or something, you know.
[61] Okay, that's enough for Katie, Brett.
[62] I want to get your take on the Biden speech because I haven't heard it, I guess.
[63] But before that, I kind of want to combine these things.
[64] I thought it was interesting, right?
[65] Coming off of the State of the Union, the Biden campaign, which is much more flush with cash in the Trump campaign, put out an ad that tried to, I think, define the choice here of this election.
[66] And I'm interested in your take on it.
[67] Let's listen to the first real Biden ad of the general election campaign.
[68] Look, I'm not a young guy.
[69] That's no secret.
[70] But here's the deal.
[71] I understand how to get things done.
[72] for the American people.
[73] I led the country through the COVID crisis.
[74] Today, we have the strongest economy in the world.
[75] I passed the law that lowers prescription drug prices.
[76] Capsensils are $35 a month for seniors.
[77] For four years, Donald Trump tried to pass an infrastructure law, and he failed.
[78] I got it done.
[79] Now we're rebuilding America.
[80] I passed the biggest law in history to combat climate change because our future depends on it.
[81] Donald Trump took away the freedom of women to choose.
[82] I'm determined to make Roewey Way the law of the land again.
[83] Donald Trump believes the job of the president is to take care of Donald Trump.
[84] I believe the job of the president is to fight for you, the American people, and that's what I'm doing.
[85] I'm Joe Biden, and I approve this message.
[86] Can we do one more take?
[87] Look, I'm very young, energetic, and handsome.
[88] What are I doing this for?
[89] It's like he's reading JVL, I think.
[90] Whoever script wrote that, or maybe that's just the obvious thing to do.
[91] address the aged I've had on, make a joke about it.
[92] Contrast about Donald Trump caring about himself versus Joe Biden actually getting things done.
[93] What's your take on that attempt to address the Biden vulnerabilities?
[94] Yeah, I think it's good.
[95] And it was a very, it was a good speech.
[96] And I'm happy the campaign has revved up.
[97] And I don't know whether it will change the dynamics politically of the race.
[98] That's what I just have no confidence in my judgment on that.
[99] You know, I could like it and Biden supporters could like it.
[100] To Haley voters get moved back to to Biden.
[101] or back to Biden?
[102] Do younger voters get reminded of what's at stake?
[103] I do think ultimately, obviously, they just have to keep hammering away at what's at stake.
[104] It's not a choice of, gee, that last incumbent and the current incumbent is kind of a tough call on their policies.
[105] And, you know, it can't be that.
[106] It's got to be the existential threat of Trump to democracy at home and to freedom of democracy abroad.
[107] I thought there were two good pieces of the bulwark this morning people should read by Trisinski and Gabe Schoenfeld at home and abroad, sort of what really is at stake.
[108] I hear you on feeling uncertain.
[109] One of my friends made a funny joke on tech.
[110] We had a text chain going during the Katie Britt speech.
[111] You know, we're all making fun of it.
[112] And then after about 25 minutes, somebody replies in the text chain, is like, are we sure that this is bad, right?
[113] As bad as we think, right?
[114] Like, if we just totally lost our ability to judge what MAGA people like?
[115] And I was like, no, I'm pretty sure this is really bad, actually.
[116] I'm almost certain that this is horrible.
[117] But I hear you on that, who knows, you know, how much this will break through.
[118] and we don't have any quantitative data to demonstrate it.
[119] But I think that clearly just the vibe shift from Democratic world and Biden world is real, like whether that trickles down at all.
[120] Because some of the Biden number problems, not enough to win, right?
[121] But when you're looking at like the Times Bowl where he's down five, for example, some of that is just kind of cleaning up people that are Democrats who are concerned either about age or Gaza or still kind of hoping that there's going to be another option getting in the race, right?
[122] And so you would think that a week like this might at least help on the margins, like, start that process.
[123] Which would be good.
[124] It would have its own effect in terms of, you know, reassuring and cheering up and stopping people like me from carping that maybe there's a better Democratic candidate and next generation and all that.
[125] He stopped Ezra Klein.
[126] Aser Klein has been bullied.
[127] He already did a column doing a Maya Coppa.
[128] I mean, this is a weak need liberal pundit class.
[129] The argument of, I think, of Klein's, as I recall it, and certainly mine was always that there was a risk that he wouldn't.
[130] be a good candidate in 2024.
[131] It wasn't that he's senile or that he is he and his staff are incompetent of governing the nation for the next nine months or maybe even for the next five years.
[132] So the one speech and one ad obviously don't really answer that.
[133] And it's March.
[134] And let's see.
[135] But look, it's encouraging.
[136] I was cheered up.
[137] I watched the speech and cheered up by that.
[138] I didn't watch Katie Brits response.
[139] So I didn't have the real time experience.
[140] That will be great when polls come out Wednesday and Katie Brits, Fave on Fave is, you know, 32 Fave, 21 Fave.
[141] People thought the speech was very moving, you know.
[142] higher ratings for her, as a VP, she would bring over some swing voters as a VP choice.
[143] That's going to be the moment where we all go into total 100 % despair.
[144] Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen.
[145] I think that for all of Donald Trump's flaws, one thing that he has is a casting ability.
[146] And I think that he watched that casting audition and said, no, thank you, ma 'am.
[147] I guess really quick, one more thing on the age question and Biden's vigor.
[148] The other side of that coin is this week with the her testimony, you know, thoughts about what to watch for there, you know, concerns, opportunities, what you think Democrats should do?
[149] I mean, he's testifying tomorrow.
[150] There's a special counsel, her, who had the report that talks about Biden's age a bit.
[151] You know, there's been an attempt by Democrats, and maybe true to some degree to say he's pretty conservative.
[152] So Trump appointee is, assisted U .S. attorney, and the other, he was supported in that by the Democratic senators from Delaware, and his reputation is pretty good.
[153] And I think of her seems like a reasonable guy, it'll give some credibility to that report if he seems partisan, it won't.
[154] It was probably smarter than the Biden.
[155] and people let you think to schedule the State of the Union though on March 7th.
[156] They got past March 5th.
[157] The race was ended.
[158] Time for refocus.
[159] They did a good job.
[160] And I wonder if the after effect of it is to minimize the likely effect or importance really of her's testimony.
[161] So they got a good week here from March 5th, I would say, to hopefully through tomorrow.
[162] Yeah, I do think that that was smart.
[163] And it was notable.
[164] There wasn't kind of a lot of commentary on that, but it was later than usual.
[165] Yeah.
[166] And so I think that was intentional and smart.
[167] As far, far as audience is concerned.
[168] It was huge audience.
[169] Actually, it was another thing that we've learned since Friday.
[170] I think five million more people just of a TV audience than last year.
[171] And so obviously there's interest.
[172] We're in an election year.
[173] I think we all kind of sense that.
[174] But I think that clearly that was a smart strategic move.
[175] The bias towards news, which I always complain about, is always the new part, right?
[176] And this has been a frustrating thing during the entire Trump era, but it might work to Biden's favor here.
[177] It's like, is her going to be able to say anything that's new?
[178] Frankly, is it possible that maybe some of the new parts of his testimony are him caveating some of the stuff that he said, you know, in the written report?
[179] I don't know.
[180] I guess potentially, you know, if he is the conservative rap fucker that, you know, some of the Democrats are accusing a thing, maybe he'll drop some new anecdotes or something.
[181] But I don't know.
[182] It doesn't seem like the type of thing that offers a lot of kind of new fodder.
[183] I guess we'll have him speaking about it on video.
[184] So, you know, you could run that on Fox.
[185] But besides that.
[186] Yeah, no, I think that's right.
[187] Just one last thing on the kind of March 5th, when Haley was in the race, it was actually, for all of her flaws, kind of a reminder of what a next generation candidate would be like.
[188] I do wonder if maybe what the Biden campaign has been counting on is happening now to some degree, which is people are beginning to focus on, okay, this is very, very most likely the choice.
[189] And let's stop all the, you know, Bill Crystal wishcasting about next generation and really get serious about the fact that it's Biden and Trump.
[190] But I feel like the last week It's been a pretty good beginning.
[191] If I were in the Biden campaign, I'd at least hope and maybe think that finally we're getting what we need, which is the real focus on Biden versus Trump instead of lots of complaints about the incumbent.
[192] It's been a little more of a choice and a little less of a referendum, as the political pros say.
[193] I've said from the start amidst all of your, you know, patty cake, that I was going to wait until April 20th, 420 to start panicking for those very reason.
[194] I want Haley to be out and I want that to sink in.
[195] And I think that takes time and there's a poll lag.
[196] If we get towards late April and we're still down five, I'm going to have a brown paper bag next to me for every episode of the podcast.
[197] But we'll see.
[198] Saznick says Memorial Day or July 4th, that that's when the impressions sink in.
[199] Traditionally, if look at incumbents, hard to move people after that.
[200] After that, it's the noise of the conventions.
[201] It's debates, non -debates.
[202] It's the day -to -day of the campaign.
[203] But it's sort of that becomes the story.
[204] And that's unpredictable, of course.
[205] But the actual judgment of Biden, he thinks by Memorial Day, or maybe July 4th, gets fairly settled, yeah.
[206] Doug Souss, that's a Democratic pollster.
[207] We maybe need a little segment here.
[208] We need a little music for this.
[209] Occasionally, I have a rant that I don't have another place to get it out.
[210] And so we're going to do a little thing where I rant and you just kind of get to respond to my rant, if that's okay.
[211] And this is not a traditional interview.
[212] Usually an interviewer, the interviewer asking an interviewee the question, but I'm, you know, I'm changing the conventions here for this podcast, okay?
[213] Fine.
[214] And my rant is about the brouhaha over Joe Biden saying the word illegal during the State of the Union.
[215] What happened for those that kind of missed this was Marjorie Taylor Green is sort of dressed like a kind of like a racist Chili's host in the crowd.
[216] And I stole that joke for someone else.
[217] And she is shouting at him about Lake and Riley who had been killed by an illegal immigrant.
[218] And she's shouting in the audience.
[219] And Biden acknowledges her and holds up the pin, the Lake and Riley pin that she had given him.
[220] as he walked down the aisle, and then he acknowledges the family.
[221] And throughout all this, Green is shouting from the audience, killed by an illegal, by an illegal, by an illegal.
[222] And Biden, off the cuff, retorts to her, yeah, by an illegal, that's right.
[223] But how many thousands of people are killed by legals to her parents, I say my heart goes out to you.
[224] So kind of an awkward exchange, right?
[225] But all in all, like, it seems like Biden is the winner of this exchange.
[226] Like, MTG thinks she has a gotcha.
[227] Biden slaps her down.
[228] he's responding to her use of the word illegal by trying to make a point that she is the one that is politicizing this, that she keeps bringing up this one murder, despite the fact that there's lots of crime that's happening and, you know, that happens.
[229] And oftentimes, if you look at immigrants, they tend to commit these crimes at a lower rate, right?
[230] So this is the point that he's trying to make.
[231] Obviously, if you're in a Lincoln -Douglas debate, not being shouted down by a crazy person in the audience, maybe you say it more adeptly.
[232] Despite all that, after this great state of the union where Biden's showing vigor, where even Bill Crystal is starting to come around.
[233] The Democrats, Democrats that are complaining.
[234] Here's the headline, progressives few at Biden, business insider.
[235] Lockheen Castro tweeted about how this was incendiary and wrong.
[236] Senator Alex Padilla, Democratic Senator of California, said the president's ad lib was deeply disappointing.
[237] Are you kidding me, Bill?
[238] I'm deeply disappointed in Alex Padilla.
[239] Like, what does this person do?
[240] I never see this fucking guy's name.
[241] He's.
[242] he's not doing anything.
[243] He's not doing anything to help the Biden campaign.
[244] And like, he pops his head up to wag his finger at Joe Biden.
[245] In the context of this speech, does anybody actually think that he was trying to be offensive?
[246] Like, obviously not.
[247] Like, does anybody think that Joe Biden was in this exchange, the one that was not being, you know, on the side of immigrants and not being on the side of migrants?
[248] Like, of course, it's Marjorie Taylor Green that is shouting and being an insane person.
[249] Like, why are you waving your finger of Biden?
[250] Like, to what end?
[251] This is, like, what is the end?
[252] I get it.
[253] If you're a Democrat and you're mad at Biden over Gaza or over a policy and you're trying to get him to change the policy.
[254] Okay.
[255] I'm not saying that you can't criticize Joe Biden.
[256] Like, that's totally appropriate.
[257] We do it here.
[258] Obviously, you want to advocate for policies.
[259] This, like, supposed GAF isn't going to change anything.
[260] It's not going to change anybody's life to make him apologize.
[261] It's not going to change his worldview.
[262] He uses the word undocumented almost of the time.
[263] It's not going to, like, change the policies or the treatment of anybody.
[264] It's going to do nothing.
[265] These liberals are just shouting, do better at him to try to berate him.
[266] And, like, the net result of this is Biden apologizing, what should have been a friendly interview with Jonathan K. Part, you would have thought it would have been a friendly interview.
[267] So now he's got to apologize.
[268] All the news is about how he apologized about this.
[269] Everyone in my MAGA Twitter feed is dunking on him.
[270] And, like, the people that criticize it for this, the Alex Padillas of the world, what did they get?
[271] like at best they achieved nothing at worst they gave a news cycle to the person that is planning mass deportation camps like that's what you did like you gave an assist to the person that is planning mass deportation camps and the divine's opponent to no end you know if they were bullying Biden or pushing him because they wanted to change some feature of the of the asylum policy to make it more humane like okay at least that would have an impact on people's lives they're just doing random fucking speech codes just to give an assist to Donald Trump and, like, virtue signal from California?
[272] You do better, Alex Padilla.
[273] Like, with friends like these, Bill, like, what are we going to do here?
[274] Am I overstating this?
[275] Am I letting myself get a little too riled up about this?
[276] But this seems like a really stupid self -owned by the Democrats.
[277] Now, it's an excellent rant, and I would just make one of the last point.
[278] He is a Democratic senator.
[279] You know, we are independent people and other liberal commentators are independent people.
[280] And they get to say, I think that's unfortunate.
[281] or I think in the future, people should say X, Y, or Z, and they get to criticize the administration as they choose, as we choose.
[282] As you say, if a Democratic senator wants to propose, if he wants to propose amendments, and he did I maybe vote against that immigration compromise, that's legit, I think.
[283] And if he wants to say we should do this on Title 42, that's legit.
[284] But, yes, just a performative, he's an elected official who's supposed to support the nominee of his party and is not on something serious, not on something where he thinks he's going to help him politically, not on something where he's been trying to get through to the White House for two months privately, and they finally won't take his call, and he has to say something, just gratuitously, what, courting the favor of what?
[285] I mean, who exactly anyway?
[286] Activists, liberal, progressive activists?
[287] Why?
[288] He's not up for an election.
[289] He's not in the middle of the election.
[290] He's just finger wagging.
[291] Joe Biden, you know, it's like, oh, 81 -year -old man up there on stage, like dealing with a heckler.
[292] It's like, I'd like to see Augspedia go up there.
[293] Making the right point.
[294] Defending the decency of, 99 .9 % of immigrants documented or undocumented and making the substantive point to the degree it was substantive that, you know what, you're just exploiting this horrible murder and what about the other.
[295] I mean, so, yes, I agree.
[296] It wasn't as even if Biden was going in the wrong direct.
[297] It's one thing, if you don't like Biden's being too nice to this in the aisle in the past, you criticize that.
[298] Okay, that's a substantive thing and you could change the policy.
[299] This is him doing the right thing.
[300] He's fighting Marjorie Taylor Green, right?
[301] He's fighting Marjorie Taylor Green.
[302] I mean.
[303] And also, by the way, just as one more aside, the guy was a murderer.
[304] Okay.
[305] So if we're going to do, like, if we're going to do the, oh, Mr. President, you should do better and be nicer, like maybe find an example where the person that is supposedly offended here isn't someone that killed a innocent college student who is just out for a run.
[306] So anyway, screw you, progressives for trying to, you know, unnecessarily snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on this one.
[307] Okay.
[308] While we're ranting before I lose you, I'd like to.
[309] to rant about Victor Orban?
[310] Well, no, I guess I'd like to rant about Donald Trump and his treatment of Victor Orban, who's at Mar -a -Lago this weekend and was given a king's welcome at the president's Elba.
[311] All the cougars in attendance were very excited to see him.
[312] And let's take a listen to what the former president said about the Hungarian autocrat.
[313] There's nobody that's better, smarter, or a better leader than Victor Orban.
[314] He's fantastic.
[315] As you know, the Prime Minister of Hungian.
[316] and does a great job.
[317] He's a non -controversial figure because he said, this is the way it's going to be and that's the end of it, right?
[318] He's the boss.
[319] And now he's a great leader, fantastic leader in Europe and all over the world.
[320] Fantastic leader, a little cheery house band in the background, Bill?
[321] It made me feel kind of sick.
[322] I mean, I met some of the liberals in Hungary who were trying to resist Orban.
[323] It's not like resisting Putin.
[324] They're free to do that, But, of course, the Orban's taken control of huge numbers of businesses, media, the universities, in that kind of more insidious authoritarian way.
[325] That would be more of a model for Trump, incidentally, you know, we're not going to all be locked up on January 21st, 2025.
[326] But the kind of way which you would pressure people through the Justice Department and DOD and all this kind of stuff is, in fact, Orbanesque, if that's a word.
[327] And so to see an American president praising that former president, a predecessor, as Biden likes to say.
[328] but the nominee of one of our two major parties, yeah, really, I can't even quite think of an example like that.
[329] of liberal democracy and explicitly embraces illiberal democracy.
[330] Yeah, and I guess somebody could say, well, we've had bilaterals with she or things like that.
[331] We criticized on this podcast that kind of treatment of she's welcome in California, for example.
[332] But again, that is even still different, right?
[333] That it's like, okay, you're trying to, you know, figure out, you know, how to do bilateral relations, you know, with another country, another leader.
[334] like that is a category difference from really a campaign surrogacy is what this is and just like lavishing praise unqualified praise on somebody that has cracked down on speech rights that has cracked down on LGBTQ crack down on immigrants and all the things that Trump is planning on doing and on top of that you know there was an Orban interview I saw it was in Hungarians so we're not going to play it around the time of the visit where you know he talks about how Trump is going to just stop funding the Ukrainian resistance and how he's And that is a good thing.
[335] And so, you know, it's almost like sort of it was praising Orban, but also Putin by extension.
[336] This isn't happening in a vacuum.
[337] It's happening when the most important foreign policy issue facing us as Ukraine in Russia.
[338] Orban has been the most conspicuous defender of Putin in the European Union.
[339] To praise Orban is in that respect at this moment is to attack Ukraine and to praise Putin.
[340] And as Orban said, Trump seems to have said privately, don't worry, I'm cutting off.
[341] all the aid to Ukraine.
[342] So that is what it's stake.
[343] I did this conversation with Tim Snyder, the great Yale historian.
[344] It's really good.
[345] I listened to it over the weekend.
[346] Folks should listen to it.
[347] Thank you.
[348] Ukraine and Russia and Eastern Europe.
[349] I said to the way how the Ukraine issue is so important.
[350] He said it really is the litmus test because it's not just about foreign policy.
[351] It tells you what you think about the world and about America at this point.
[352] And for Trump to be with Orban and therefore with Putin, for me, that says it all.
[353] Yeah, we'll put in the show notes.
[354] It's a crystal conversation with Tim Snyder.
[355] Folks should listen to it.
[356] Okay.
[357] Lastly, I got a kind of a cryptic message from you that was intriguing over the weekend.
[358] You said, you'd like to talk about my encouraging two days at a Liberty Fund conference.
[359] When I hear the words Liberty Fund, my spidey sense starts to get up, that maybe that might be a cryptic MAGA group.
[360] So tell us what was encouraging about your time with some of these conservative academics.
[361] It was a small kind of academic seminar, but it was on liberalism, and it was mostly younger people.
[362] I sort of, I was kind of a co -organizer.
[363] They asked me to do it.
[364] So tried to get people in their 20s, 30s, early 40s, and some academics, some other types, and public intellectuals, I guess you call them these days, and so forth.
[365] We read Orwell and a lot of, you know, sort of stuff from Michael Walzer on being a liberal and Hitchens, actually.
[366] Liberalism could have a comeback.
[367] Good liberalism.
[368] Hubert Humphrey liberalism, anti -fascist, anti -communist, pro -sival rights, but doesn't have a heart attack when an 81 -year -old.
[369] man says the word illegal, you know, that kind of liberalism.
[370] I mean, that, I was encouraged by the discussion.
[371] Well, that is encouraging.
[372] Do you have any other positive notes to leave us on?
[373] Any other notes of optimism?
[374] Baseball season begins in two weeks, and spring training is chugging ahead.
[375] And I, in the morning shot this morning, it was sweet.
[376] I don't know.
[377] Going down to give a speech, this 10 -year -old boy who was going with his family.
[378] And he said, are you going to spring training too?
[379] And I, you know, maybe think, you know, it'll be better to be going to spring training even giving my speech there at some hotel.
[380] Liberalism is not dead.
[381] Baseball is not dead.
[382] I'm a little skeptical on both of those points, but that will be for another conversation next week.
[383] Thank you, Bill Crystal.
[384] On the other side, we've got Sarah Longwell with a focus group update, and we're taking your questions from the board mailbag.
[385] All right, I'm back with my old friend, Sarah Longwell, publisher of the bulwark, Sarah, I want to have you on A, because you have multiple other podcasts.
[386] I want to make sure people know about.
[387] George Conway explains it all to Sarah Longwell.
[388] That publishes kind of periodically.
[389] Do you have a schedule?
[390] Do you have a schedule?
[391] Do you have a day where we know what that goes out?
[392] Well, we try to do it when there's good legal news to talk about, but it's like Thursday -ish.
[393] Thursday -ish, okay.
[394] And then every Saturday you have the Focus Group podcast, which is so, so good.
[395] And in particular, I wanted to talk briefly about this week's, which was a little bit alarming, but in a good way, kind of a wake -up call, you know, kind of like smelling salt, kind of alarming, where you had Ashley Allison, CNN analyst, who was on to discuss focus groups you did with black voters who had voted for Hillary and Biden, but we're now thinking about Donald Trump a little bit.
[396] Can we just listen to a little bit and I'll get you on the other side?
[397] I think he just has more of an ability to jumpstart the economy, to inject energy into the economy, and that's really what a lot of is boiled down to, for me. With him and Putin from Russia, they had some kind of rapport.
[398] And so that sort of keeps us alive without getting bombs, you know, thrown on our country.
[399] So it seems like, I don't know, Maybe a gangster knows another gangster and they have respect for one another.
[400] But it seems like he was able to get along with the people a little better.
[401] It didn't matter what he did.
[402] They were just going to bash him anyway.
[403] At least it seemed like maybe three -fourths of the media.
[404] Of course, he had Fox on his side, but it seemed like three or fourths of the media was bashing the guys.
[405] I'm like, that's unheard of for somebody to get bashed that hard.
[406] And he's the president of the United States.
[407] So that may be put a red flag in my head that maybe he's on to something.
[408] I don't know who in government is not.
[409] committing fraud, who's not being crooked, who's not doing us right?
[410] I really don't know.
[411] I don't know why he's the only one that's actually being held accountable.
[412] Woof.
[413] Okay.
[414] Again, just one focus group, but, you know, we're seeing in the numbers, some bleed among black voters.
[415] I thought it was nice that you had Ashley on to kind of talk through it.
[416] What did you guys come away with?
[417] Well, I mean, first of all, I really wanted to do this group because we keep saying it in the numbers.
[418] People are kind of freaking out about it while also denying that it's real, right?
[419] They're like, this isn't possible.
[420] And I want to be like, I'm sure it.
[421] is possible because if there's one thing I know from doing focus groups all of these years, it's that the things that we self -soothe with are often wrong.
[422] And that if you go kind of find these voters and ask them, you're going to hear stuff.
[423] Yeah, it's going to make your toes curl, but it's going to be like what is actually going on.
[424] I love Ashley.
[425] She's a friend of mine.
[426] And she did like a valiant pushback.
[427] She was a little bit like JVL is where he wants to, he wants to sort of reason with all the voters.
[428] Like, let me tell you what I would say.
[429] Yeah.
[430] Let me tell you what I would say back to them if you put me in the room.
[431] put me in the room, let me convince them why they're wrong.
[432] But to me, the most interesting thing was how much they just sounded like, like, there was nothing different about what the black voters were saying about why they liked Trump than just other Trump voters of why they like them.
[433] It's all the same thing.
[434] It's like, I think you'd be better for the economy.
[435] Americans want to be rich.
[436] Let's just tell you, like Americans, all of them.
[437] They want to be rich.
[438] And they see Donald Trump is rich.
[439] And so when they say we need a businessman running the economy, what they mean is, I saw this guy on TV being a businessman.
[440] I know he's got a gold toilet.
[441] And I don't necessarily want a gold toilet, but I want more money.
[442] And I think he'll help me get more money because he's figured out how to get more money for himself.
[443] And, you know, when Trump says things like, well, because I have a mugshot, I think that's going to help me with black voters.
[444] You and I hear that and go, well, that's really racist.
[445] Boy, that's got to turn off black voters.
[446] Of course it is.
[447] But there are plenty of black voters who do not hear, and they may not even hear that sort of statement explicitly.
[448] What they do here is this idea of, and this is, again, same with white voters, is this guy, look how much he has to put up with.
[449] I know what it feels like to have either trumped up charges or grievances on saying it's so frustrating because Trump, his grievances are all about himself.
[450] It's not like he shares your grievance, regular voter, but still they find, they find like a connection there on the grievance side.
[451] And then there's just some straight up like anti -vaxing.
[452] Nobody said deep state, but there was like, he's the only one who talks about how they're out to get us, you know, the ants die into institutions.
[453] And I hear that across all the focus groups of people who like Trump.
[454] So it just doesn't surprise me, right, that black voters or some sub -segment of it.
[455] Yeah.
[456] I'm very careful in the podcast to keep pointing out that this does not reflect a majority of black voters.
[457] In fact, it reflects a small percentage, but black voters are so reliable for Democrats.
[458] Hispanics have been so much more reliable for Democrats that bleeding, going from, you know, losing 10 % of black voters to 20 % of black voters, especially in states like Georgia, disaster.
[459] Okay.
[460] Well, were there any green shoots, things that issues feeling like that, you know, Democrats can use to talk about them?
[461] Well, we did another group of swing voters right after the state of the union the day after.
[462] Okay.
[463] I would say only about half the group had actually watched the whole thing, but then the other half had, like, you know, seen the vibes the day after.
[464] Yeah.
[465] And -conserved the memes.
[466] Yeah, that's right.
[467] And they were like, okay, okay, there's a guy I could be into.
[468] There's sort of a Twitter -esque fight right now of, will that matter?
[469] Do voters care?
[470] And they had heard about the Katie Britt stuff, too.
[471] They were just like, she is so weird.
[472] Everyone just, this is so weird.
[473] someone said Stepford wife.
[474] One person said, I think she's trying to, you know, deflect from the IVF ruling in Alabama.
[475] And they were universally going for Biden, which, you know, anybody who's been listening to my podcast knows we've been seeing some backsliding from these swing voters.
[476] But I think that Joe Biden turning the vibes around is really important.
[477] And they seem to be getting it.
[478] They seem to be there.
[479] Yeah.
[480] Good news with swing voters.
[481] Okay.
[482] If you're not listening to the focus group podcast last this week, if you can't, handle the black voters against Joe Biden.
[483] Last week they had John Fabro.
[484] I'm talking about California.
[485] Every week it's a different group of voters.
[486] It's super interesting.
[487] I love that I'm a focus groupie.
[488] Okay, final segment of the day.
[489] We're trying it.
[490] This is new.
[491] Sarah, you're here.
[492] We're doing it live.
[493] Our first mailbag segment.
[494] Remember, if you have a question for the mailbag, email Bullwark podcast at the Bullwark .com, we received an overwhelming amount of mail.
[495] So I think it's awesome, how engaged of an audience we have.
[496] So I don't know how we're going to try to do this often.
[497] You've got a big show here, Timmy, you know?
[498] Yeah, it's awesome.
[499] And they care.
[500] They're not just half listening, you know, they're not just cooking and half like they're listening and they want our feedback on things.
[501] So we're starting with two.
[502] And since I have you, the first one I know is Sarah Bate, we got multiple questions like this.
[503] It is very similar to the questions that I got when I was on a panel in Aspen.
[504] So I'm a little concerned about how many Aspen listeners we have.
[505] But this question is from Bianca in San Diego.
[506] She asks, what if there were a Cheney Haley, no labels, ticket designed to split the Trump vote and also found a new conservative party.
[507] Sarah, doesn't that sound wonderful?
[508] Guys, guys, guys, listen, the people who would vote for Liz Cheney and the people who would vote for Nikki Haley are people that we need to vote for Joe Biden.
[509] To win this election, you are not building a pro -Joe Biden coalition.
[510] You are building an anti -Trump coalition.
[511] and literally anything that splits, the anti -Trump coalition is bad for Biden.
[512] Hear me on this, please.
[513] Conservatives, swing voters.
[514] There is like 9 to 10 percent of the country, and there's even like soft Democrats.
[515] They will pull from Biden.
[516] Trump has a like fixed ceiling and floor and there's like two points in between there.
[517] You cannot take, you cannot take away anybody from the anti -Trump coalition.
[518] I'm sorry if they want to start a new conservative movement, they should, and they should tell people to vote for Biden in this election.
[519] Agreed.
[520] And by the way, I think that there are conceivably states or random races where something like this could work, right?
[521] It is not in the presidential election.
[522] I'm sorry, Bianca.
[523] And I did this a little bit during the live DC show, where the weirdness of Trump actually, I can understand why people logically think, okay, Trump is so hated.
[524] It's the perfect time for third party.
[525] But it's wrong because there's no elastic in his support, as you just mentioned, right?
[526] And if there would be room, I think, for a Cheney Haley no labels ticket if it was like Mike Johnson versus Rashida to leave, right?
[527] It was two people on ideological opposite ends of the polls.
[528] Then there's a lot of room in the middle.
[529] That's not really what's happening.
[530] Joe Biden's running kind of from the center left.
[531] Trump is running as an authoritarian heterodox weirdo who's like off the left right continuum.
[532] It doesn't work.
[533] There's no room for it.
[534] I'm sorry.
[535] I know it would sound nice to some people.
[536] It's not going to happen.
[537] And God knows I would vote for that ticket.
[538] It's like my dream ticket you're talking about, but I'm just telling you that's not going to work.
[539] Sorry, Bianca.
[540] Okay, question two of the mailbag.
[541] This is from the life advice category.
[542] I love the people that came at me with life advice.
[543] Some people thought I was joking.
[544] I'm dead serious.
[545] You know, why not do a little life coaching here at the Bullock?
[546] Okay, this is Cindy and D .C. Cindy will retire from a 30 -year professor gig at the end of June, which is sooner than she wanted to do to health issues.
[547] She planned to stay in D .C. because her doctor and friends are here, but as an object of magna nightmares, single educated white female with savings and no kids.
[548] Good on you, Cindy.
[549] I can live almost anywhere.
[550] The threat of another traitor Trump crap storm has her pondering a summer move to Door County, Wisconsin, a 50 -50 county and a 50 -50 state where my vote could make a difference.
[551] Why Door County?
[552] She visited last summer together information about some ancestors.
[553] It was beautiful and much cooler than D .C. in the summer, although there were some gigantic Trump flags.
[554] Is she crazy to consider renting out her D .C. House, volunteering for the Wisconsin, Conson Dems, registering to vote in Door County for the fall election.
[555] She'd be grateful for any insights.
[556] What life might be like is an East Coast volunteer in a Midwestern locale.
[557] How miserable could she be?
[558] Could I make enough difference to counterbalance the potential nastiness?
[559] What should I seek to do for maximum impact?
[560] I know what I think, Sarah.
[561] Do you want to hear my answer first or do you want to go first?
[562] You go ahead.
[563] I'll let you do it.
[564] Okay.
[565] I think that you should consider it, Cindy.
[566] Life is short.
[567] I love it.
[568] I love the mindset of the attitude.
[569] we're only here for a certain amount of time.
[570] It's a good life experience.
[571] We obviously made a recent move.
[572] I'll caveat one thing.
[573] I'm a little concerned about the loneliness quotient.
[574] We have listeners, though.
[575] We have listeners in Wisconsin to the Bullwark podcast.
[576] Door County, for people who don't know, it's like on the little, what do you call it?
[577] It's like a little finger that sticks out on the east side of Wisconsin into the lakes.
[578] And so it's from kind of green bray.
[579] You go up this little finger.
[580] It is really beautiful.
[581] I've never been there.
[582] I've heard it's really beautiful.
[583] But I know, for example, Mark Becker, Big fan of ours.
[584] It was the Green Bay, whatever county that is, Republican chair for a while.
[585] Then he did the right thing.
[586] He was a Republican voter against Trump last time.
[587] He's written for the bulwark.
[588] We can ask Mark.
[589] I just want to make sure you can have some friends.
[590] I think otherwise the experience will be great.
[591] People are nice.
[592] You get surprised by how nice people are.
[593] You can get a little community of people door knocking.
[594] I don't know if I'd want to live in Door County.
[595] No pun intended there forever.
[596] But to move six months, have a life experience.
[597] I don't know.
[598] Seems pretty good to me. like the mindset regardless.
[599] What say you, Sarah?
[600] I love the mindset.
[601] And I got to tell you, we hear from a lot of people being like, what can I do?
[602] And honestly, what I want to say to everybody is like, move to Montana.
[603] Like, it's beautiful there.
[604] And honestly, if 100 ,000 of you moved, like, it could become a blue state.
[605] And you could take it over.
[606] You can get two Senate seats, governorship.
[607] I think this idea of people going to swing states is amazing.
[608] And one of the biggest sacrifices somebody could make for democracy.
[609] And here's the thing on the law.
[610] loneliness, I think, is that, you know, you could start a blog and encourage other people to move.
[611] You could start a whole movement, a community of people who move for democracy and go to places in swing states.
[612] And my guess is that you will find a Democratic community there that is so excited to have you.
[613] Ben Wickler, who runs the Democrats, the party chair there, is like a super good guy that would, I'm sure, like, get you hooked up with all the other volunteers.
[614] I think it could be like a once in a lifetime awesome experience.
[615] Move to Door County.
[616] And if it's terrible, don't blame us, okay?
[617] I'm just like, you know, we're doing the best we can.
[618] This is our first life advice question and we might improve over time, but I'm feeling pretty good at it off the bat.
[619] Okay, Sarah, any final thoughts for people before you get out of here, any other big focus group takeaways from your post -state of the union focus group?
[620] I don't know that I've got any other ones other than, hey guys, if you'd have a zip in your step right now, we'll skip after that.
[621] Keep it going because it's going to be a long slog and there's going to be ups but just should remember that there's going to be ups and when there's ups remember to push lean into them that's great advice all right let's get your feedback on the first mailbag remember to email your questions bulwark podcast at the bulwark dot com we'll be back here tomorrow with evan osnos who wrote the great new yorker profile about joe biden i'm excited about that i'm in there i'm in that profile are you i didn't make it that far it's really long so you must be quoted in the backcalf i'm going to be reading the rest of it later today you know what I think about your quotes.
[622] That's Sarah Longwell Publisher on the Bullwark.
[623] We'll see you back here tomorrow.
[624] Peace.
[625] Bye guys.
[626] I was having no fun.
[627] But fortunately, I have the key to escape reality.
[628] And you may see me tonight with an illegal smile.
[629] It don't cost very much, but it lasts a long while.
[630] Won't you Please tell the man I didn't kill anyone No, I'm just trying to have me some fun I'm a check my bankroll, it was getting thin Sometimes it seems like the bottom is the only place I've been I chased a rainbow down a one -way street Dead end And all my friends turned out to be insurance Salesmen But fortunately I have the key To escape reality And you may see me tonight With an illegal smile It don't cost very much But it lasts a long while Won't you please tell the man I didn't kill anyone No I'm just trying Hell done The Bullwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.