The Bulwark Podcast XX
[0] Welcome to the Bullwark podcast.
[1] I'm Charlie Sykes.
[2] Before we go back to the usual darkness, could we just start off with this reminder that we can still do big things?
[3] Oh, my gosh.
[4] Oh, wow.
[5] Yeah.
[6] Oh, my goodness.
[7] 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3.
[8] Getting visual confirmation.
[9] Very defense.
[10] And that is fantastic.
[11] A .B. Stoddard, Association.
[12] editor and columnist at Real Clear Politics joined me on the podcast today.
[13] I got to say, I've listened to that probably half a dozen times.
[14] They still get goosebumps.
[15] I agree.
[16] It's so rare and extraordinary these days to hear that unanimity, that rejoicing, that sense of mission accomplished for something that's actually not only super cool, but really important, and that there are people out there trying to prevent our ultimate demise is really heartening, and I didn't know how much I needed it until it happened.
[17] No, I agree.
[18] And it is cool.
[19] And obviously, I think that, you know, people know that we're talking about the fact that we sent this spaceship directly like a dart into this space rock and hit it.
[20] And, you know, this is the world's first planetary defense test mission, which is kind of amazing.
[21] I just, humanity's first attempt to alter the most motion of an asteroid or any celestial body played out in a NASA webcast from the missions operations center outside Washington, D .C. 10 months after we first launched it.
[22] And, you know, it's cool in and of itself, but I don't know, should I go here?
[23] Should I go, should I go for the snark right away?
[24] Yes.
[25] I'm sorry, you know, in contrast to the billionaire phallic rockets, which are like, hey, look at this.
[26] We go up and then we come down again.
[27] This actually, has very, very clear relevance in utility.
[28] Absolutely.
[29] And it's easily understandable.
[30] There are asteroids out there.
[31] Now, it may not happen anytime soon, but the odds are with billions of asteroids flying around that sooner or later one's going to hit our way and then really, really bad things could happen.
[32] And this is something that has been the focus of science fiction movies.
[33] But now we're actually developing a planetary defense system that might be able to blow them up or change the trajectory.
[34] I mean, this is not just, you know, sending something up into the air to show that we can do it.
[35] It's like, okay, can we actually save all life on the planet if we have to if one of the big ones is heading our way?
[36] It's breathtaking.
[37] I mean, here we all are on Earth.
[38] We can barely pass an annual spending bill.
[39] All everyone's fighting.
[40] All these debates are convulsing democracies around the world and, you know, other dictator countries are just, you know, ignoring and decimating human rights.
[41] But someone, some really smart people are putting their hearts and minds and resources and energy into, quote, planetary defense to save all of humankind.
[42] It's such a contrast.
[43] It gave me chills for so many different reasons.
[44] Yeah.
[45] In my newsletter today, I did that split screen that we're kind of getting at the sublime and the shambolic, is that while we have this incredible technical, achievement, scientific achievement, we now have to come back to our shambolic, petty politics where obviously we not only seems like we can't get things done, but there's a lack of willingness to do that.
[46] And I talked about the latest extremely light in the policy loafer's agenda from the House GOP, which basically has no, you know, do you have any idea how much shit I'm going to probably get for the whole, you know, light in the policy loafer's thing?
[47] I know.
[48] Yesterday.
[49] I'm sorry to bore you with it.
[50] this.
[51] You know, I was talking about lawyers, and I included just sort of in passing some lawyer jokes in the context of saying that our democracy, you know, now rests in the hands of maybe the judicial system.
[52] It shouldn't be.
[53] It shouldn't be up to prosecutors and judges to save our democracy, but here we're at so.
[54] But I included in sort of, you know, drive -by manner, a couple of lawyer jokes.
[55] And, of course, I got all of the Huffy, you know, that's not funny, Charlie.
[56] We should not be joking about these things, you know.
[57] So thank you all for your daily doses of complete humorlessness.
[58] Oh, my goodness.
[59] They can't take that.
[60] Just reminding us.
[61] Okay.
[62] So, hello, darkness, our old friend.
[63] So right now, in late September, 2022, A .B. Stoddard, what is the most interesting state in terms of our politics?
[64] What is the most entertaining of the 50 states?
[65] Entertaining or worrisome.
[66] I mean, there's a few that are so interesting for profound reasons.
[67] You go first.
[68] I have one.
[69] So I'm really fascinated in the disparity between J .D. Vance's approval and Mike DeWine's approval in Ohio.
[70] The incumbent governor is way ahead of J .D. Vance.
[71] Yes, we're told that polling is off just across the board.
[72] Yes, we're told Ohio polling is historically weak.
[73] But watching the difference between, you know, the sitting governor, comfortably putting his Democratic opponent away, Nan Whaley, and then, you know, these polls that have shown Tim Ryan in the fight all along, right?
[74] I just can't help find it fascinating and wonder what's going on there and what will happen.
[75] Maybe Tim Ryan loses by, you know, two instead of eight.
[76] It was a Trump -bait state.
[77] But again, Ohio is so interesting that has three major urban centers, which obviously abortion is going to be a factor in.
[78] When I look at, I'm not even looking at Florida, North Carolina.
[79] I basically consider Wisconsin.
[80] and I'm just consider it, like, that Ron John's going to be reelected.
[81] But Arizona and Georgia, I mean, my goodness, Tarley, I'm, I just, I know that Blake Masters is way behind the sitting, the senator, Mark Kelly, he continues to crush the polls and reach 50 % and be eight points ahead of his opponent.
[82] But then this, Katie Hobbs, the Democrat running against the super cook, Carrie Lake for government.
[83] she's invisible.
[84] She doesn't go on TV.
[85] She doesn't hold high -profile campaign events.
[86] She's not going to debate, which I think is a huge error.
[87] And so that I think is, Arizona is still really a weird out factor for me. And then, of course, in Georgia, you know, you have Stacey Abrams admitting that she's having trouble with black men voters.
[88] And there's just been, I believe there's going to be ticket splitting or holes in the ballot.
[89] I believe a lot of Republicans are going to fill out their ballot for Brian Kemp and not vote for Herschel Walker.
[90] Doesn't mean they're going to vote for the Senator Raphael Warnock.
[91] But it just is, there's been too many polls where Herschel's like kind of hang in.
[92] And so I don't know.
[93] Weird.
[94] It is weird.
[95] Yeah.
[96] I mean, that is one of the striking things about this year.
[97] You have some of the weird, the weirdest most, I think, demonstrably unfit candidates, but they're still in the mix.
[98] So, yeah, on this question of Georgian.
[99] and Herschel Walker.
[100] I mean, we've seen what being a Republican in the Senate has done to the brains of people like Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Josh Hawley.
[101] Imagine what it would do to Herschel Walker.
[102] Imagine what being a Republican in the Senate would do to the brain of Herschel Walker.
[103] I just want to leave that aside for a moment and maybe regret the fact that we're not going to be saved by an asteroid hitting the Earth before November.
[104] But the correct answer to the question, A .B. about the most interesting state.
[105] I would like it to be Wisconsin, but it is, I'm afraid, Pennsylvania, where we have both Doug Mastriano, who is running one of the weakest campaigns.
[106] I, this New York Times story, you know, Doug Mastriano, who just a complete, you know, election and I are fake conspiracy theorist.
[107] You know, we could go on for some time here.
[108] Mastriano sputtering campaign, no TV ads, tiny crowds, little money.
[109] You really hate to see it, being heavily outspent by his Democratic rival.
[110] has no television ads on the air since May, has chosen not to interact with the state's news media in ways that would push his agenda and trails by double digits in public polling in most private surveys.
[111] And then, of course, you have Dr. Oz, who, okay, this is the thing that puzzles me and, of course, he's also now trailing John Federman, even though, again, this should be a state that Republicans should be within, I mean, this would be a state that would be on the list of Republicans would be able to flip the governor's seat and and uh and hold onto the Senate seat but doesn't look like it so here's the my question about Dr. Oz though this guy has spent his entire life shilling and marketing for stuff right yeah I mean the the guy is basically a carnival barker so you'd think that he's would be kind of you know has it had some experience at messaging and yet he's so bad at it and I want to play for you a sound bite.
[112] You know, he's been trying to find different ways of changing the dynamics of the race.
[113] He tried to make an issue of Federman's health, which was cringe -worthy, apparently didn't get him any traction.
[114] So now, and I am not kidding you, he's going after John Federman's clothing, which he describes as his costume.
[115] And he has deep thoughts about the way that John Fetterman dresses, you know, the hoodie and all of that stuff.
[116] So here's, here is Dr. Oz talking about why he dresses like that.
[117] I want to push back on the costume a little bit because it's an interesting phenomenon.
[118] I was stunned by it as well.
[119] But it turns out that if you're a far left radical with the belief that this country is irredeemably stained, you just want to break it apart.
[120] Just bust America, crack it to its base, break it asunder, and rebuild it with your toxic ideology.
[121] That's what he stands for.
[122] When he dresses like that, it's not an accident.
[123] He's kicking authority in the balls.
[124] He's saying, hey, I'm the man. I'll show those guys who's boss.
[125] I'm going to not allow any traditional path to succeed.
[126] Because by breaking some parts of it down, I can represent, I can break it all down.
[127] That's the deeper message he's delivering.
[128] When he dresses like that, he's kicking authority in the balls.
[129] Wow.
[130] Yeah.
[131] Okay.
[132] Dr. Oz is now campaigning for John Vend.
[133] Betterman, basically highlighting the fact that he has serious street cred with Trump voters in rural Pennsylvania who dress exactly like John Federman.
[134] He is way cooler than you think.
[135] Oh, wait.
[136] This is what's known as an own goal.
[137] It's just, oh, the man is really scratching around.
[138] I mean, this is getting strange.
[139] You know what that hoodie means?
[140] If I were on his team, I would have said, never touch that stuff.
[141] never touched the shorts and the hoodies.
[142] Don't go there because that's like that's his creed, you know, don't do it.
[143] But he did it.
[144] He's really best for him.
[145] Yeah.
[146] Here is Dr. Oz who wears, I'm guessing, handmade bespoke suits.
[147] Yes.
[148] Who's making fun of a guy who wears hoodies in Pennsylvania where they're fighting for blue collar rural voters.
[149] Pure man of political genius.
[150] Okay.
[151] So that's sort of why Dr. Oz is.
[152] is struggling.
[153] And you mentioned the other, you know, what's going on in in Arizona, which, you know, continues to be just, what a strange state.
[154] What a, you know, a state where, you know, one side of the screen is perfectly rational people, including a long tradition of rational Republicans.
[155] And then the other side of the screen are these absolute complete, you know, bat shit crazy folks like the Republican nominee, Carrie Lake.
[156] And of course, Tucker Carlson had Kerry Lake on his show last night.
[157] And she's talking about the Italian election where a far right candidate, Georgia Maloney, who is the nominee of the party, who was the leader of a party that really is a successor to the fascist parties in Italy.
[158] And people are very, very concerned about her extreme right -wing, semi -fascist ideology.
[159] And Kerry Lake, like so many other Republicans, has really rush to embrace her.
[160] And this is, I want to talk about this phenomenon, the enthusiasm of American right -wingers for this, you know, quasi -fascist candidate in Italy.
[161] And this is what she had to say last night.
[162] So you were one of the very first American politicians to weigh in on this election.
[163] You were paying attention, which I appreciated.
[164] What do you make of this?
[165] I'm so excited.
[166] You know, it's funny, I looked, I looked this Italian Ms. Maloney up when I heard about her about a week ago and I couldn't find any just straight up information on her.
[167] Everything was, she's a fascist, she's a racist, she's this, she's that.
[168] And I thought, wow, this is somebody who I can relate to because they're doing the same thing about me. And it makes me realize that if they're not calling you all of these slurs, if they're not attacking you, then you're probably not truly representing the people of your country.
[169] Ah, if they're not calling you a racist or a fascist, you're probably not representing certain people in your country.
[170] Yeah, the thing about Perry Lake, the reason that she's so dangerous is that unlike Masteriano, who I believe does not at all prioritize campaign funds, advertisements, rally size, because I do believe that he believes that the storm is coming and Q, has told him that he's going to win the gubernatorial race and that, you know, it's God's call.
[171] So I just think he's that over the line.
[172] Carrey Lake is an incredible performer.
[173] I find her totally mesmerizing.
[174] And that's what's frightening because she's a complete and utter liar, a former supporter of Obama and big Trump critic.
[175] And she, as we've all mentioned so many times, has been in the living rooms of all of these constituents for two decades as a TV person, in the state.
[176] And she's now transformed herself into, you know, Tucker.
[177] And she has a mass following because she's this, you know, again, really good communicator.
[178] And she's a woman.
[179] And this is why the idea that Katie Hobbs refuses to debate her and call her out as a fraud and a danger, I think is so reckless and so risky.
[180] Because I think Carrie Lake knows what she's doing and she does it pretty well, and she's going to become a huge contender on the right, win or lose.
[181] Well, and in part that's because she's not an outlier, as you could tell from Tucker's enthusiasm, you know, there was once a real, I think I talked about this on another podcast, there was once a real distinction between American conservatism and European National Front conservatism.
[182] There was a libertarian streak.
[183] And now, I mean, you can see really across the board how excellent.
[184] cited American right wingers are at watching this, this far right candidate winning in Italy, you know, shows that, you know, they've really globalized much of their, their ideology.
[185] But also, I just think it's interesting the way that they are framing it, that it's almost as being called a racist and a fascist by which they mean also behaving like a racist and a fascist is not kind of a badge of honor.
[186] It's kind of a seal of approval that you might.
[187] must be doing the right thing if you'd be calling a fascist and a racist.
[188] So people should not be surprised when people on the right just no longer even blink when you accuse them of that.
[189] Oh, it's, you know, it's, it's, it's, there's, there's no longer any sense of like, oh, no, no, that's wrong.
[190] We are not.
[191] We are not.
[192] You know, they've turned into the fact you're calling us a fascist means that we must be doing something right.
[193] Okay, so this is where we're at here.
[194] Yeah, it's the goal.
[195] Fascist is the new racist.
[196] Yeah.
[197] Right.
[198] Because that, wasn't enough, Charlie.
[199] That wasn't cruel and a liberal enough.
[200] Yeah, I mean, I'm old enough to remember when if you were called a racist, it was something like, okay, that's, that's embarrassing.
[201] I need to, I need to refute this in some way as opposed to shrug my shoulders and roll my eyes.
[202] But now it's like, okay, fascists being the new racist, it's like all these fascists around the world, they're like us.
[203] They're doing the same thing that we do.
[204] And if you criticize them for their fascist policies, well, I can identify.
[205] with that because, you know, that's what they say about me. I mean, this is for people who don't understand or perhaps somewhat naive about the trajectory of all this.
[206] And you also raised another question, which I don't want to gloss over the increasingly explicit embrace of QAnon conspiracy theories by Donald Trump himself.
[207] Yeah.
[208] Even though apparently they're discouraging the one finger salute anymore.
[209] But, you know, yesterday I was on one of the cable shows and they were doing a little little mini package about Q and on how bizarre it is, how it has destroyed lives, how it's associated with the violence.
[210] And people ought to be very clear what we're talking about.
[211] I mean, Q and on, it's very complicated, but it believes that the world is run by a ring of satanic pedophiles.
[212] And then it gets worse from that, you know, people who believe that the military is going to rise up, overthrow Joe Biden, and that it will arrest Biden, other the leading Democrats, you know, celebrities, take them down to Gitmo and execute them.
[213] And they think of this as a good thing.
[214] And the only reason we are talking about it is because the former and perhaps future president of the United States is embracing and amplifying this absolutely bizarre, toxic, hateful conspiracy theory.
[215] And yet that's sort of like number 15 on our list of things.
[216] that we are outraged and worried about.
[217] Yeah, it's remarkable when you see Republicans try to, almost two months after the August H search at Mar -a -Lago, all these things have been revealed, and now they're saying, you know, they're finally answering reporters' questions and saying, no, you can't really declassify with your brain or your nose.
[218] And you would think that this is, that QAnon, this idea of flirting with and embracing Q &N, on, which we know is a very intentional tactical move on Trump's part, right, to find a sort of new army and new, to expand his universe of people who are frightened and are impressionable and want a massive confrontation known as the storm where these political enemies will be executed at Gitmo on live television, apparently.
[219] Also, since he called into the January 6th, like vigil rally in a D .C. jail to some Sixers and said it was such a disgrace and how he trying to help fund their defense meeting, you would think that in all we've been through, not only in the last six years, but in the last, you know, couple months that Republicans would say, I just want to make it clear that this is really dangerous and none of it is true.
[220] And they know, Charlie, that people in their church and people in their neighborhoods and people in their family are going down Q and on rabbit holes.
[221] It's no longer some strange, distant thing.
[222] If we don't know personally someone who's, you know, flirting with Q, we know someone who knows someone.
[223] This is really incredibly dangerous stuff.
[224] And this is so easy for Republicans to step up and say, you know what?
[225] You can just do it with your hometown reporter.
[226] You don't have to go and call into 60 minutes and sit down.
[227] But you can, you know, take a stand on this and say, I believe the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Justice said this is a real dangerous threat.
[228] No, total silence.
[229] See, this is another really, really important point.
[230] And I wish I would have made it more forcefully yesterday during this conversation.
[231] The complete absence of any pushback from the normal Republicans, you know, again, shouldn't necessarily be surprising.
[232] But it's still shocking if you understand the contradiction there.
[233] And, of course, we have the usual explanation, you know, cowardice.
[234] It's the midterms are up.
[235] You know, people don't want to rob.
[236] about there's also a sense though I just think of numbness of exhaustion it's like why bother and as a result you know we have one of these moments again where you know the best lack all conviction where the worst or full of passionate intensity but I looked around to find any pushback and again you point out something this is easy it is really easy to come out against violence against, you know, people who think that your political opponent should be arrested and executed at, you know, Guantanamo Bay, it shouldn't be difficult to speak out about, you know, the threats of violence if the criminal justice is to work.
[237] And yet, I can't find anything.
[238] Am I missing something?
[239] No, no. No one has said anything since the rally the weekend before with all of the fingers in the air and the music.
[240] And then, as you said, this last weekend's rally, he still played the music and he speaks in very frightening, dystopian, you know, terms and knowing that Q is all over his audience.
[241] But I guess when they put their fingers in the air, some people were trying to discourage them.
[242] If that means that Republicans are calling the former president's team and saying, could you just keep the fingers down, everything else is cool?
[243] I mean, that would be even worse.
[244] Yes, it's been complete and utter silence.
[245] Yeah, apparently somebody thinks that if you don't have the finger up, you know, which is, you know, where one goes, we all go or something like that.
[246] I'm not having the satanic ring of pedophiles.
[247] But it is interesting how often you see echoes.
[248] I mean, not only do you not have a pushback, but the echoes that you hear of Q &on conspiracy theories, you know, a lot of the, you know, talk about the deep state or of grooming the obsession with, you know, possible, you know, child molestation, you know, all of these things that kind of pop up or dropped into rhetoric are really sort of winks and nods at, at Q &on conspiracy theory.
[249] So, you know, there was a time like 10 minutes ago when Marjorie Taylor Green was, you know, out there, you know, she was not completely on the fringes because she had a seat in Congress and Republicans were not expelling her or anything.
[250] But now Marjorie Taylor Green's rhetoric is really, I mean, it's, it's really become very much like the mainstream of the Republican Party.
[251] Is that, is that hyperbole to say that?
[252] No, it does seem, it does seem now like a long time ago, Charlie, when there was a vote in Congress to stripper of committees because she was the Q &ON Congresswoman, she's now a major star.
[253] She's still a freshman.
[254] I know it seems like she's been in that.
[255] house for 18 years, but she's still a freshman.
[256] That's how recent it was.
[257] And now she's seated behind, you know, the left shoulder of Kevin McCarthy when he does his policy rollout.
[258] This week, I mean, it tells you all you need to know that she's been normalized, she's been elevated, she's close with, she's made very shrewdly made sure that she has good relationship with Donald Trump, and that's her leverage.
[259] And she makes everyone else nervous because of it.
[260] she can just get on the phone with Donald and rat you out if you're, you know, Nancy Mace or Kevin McCarthy or whoever it is.
[261] And so, no, she's, she's been elevated ever since, which means that Q and on is no big deal.
[262] Okay, so trigger warning here, A .B. Yeah.
[263] And let me put this in context before, before I go there because, so last night, as you know, I used to have a radio show here in Wisconsin and was there for 23 years and we broadcast from a thing called Radio City, which is this sort of temple of radio that had been been there since the 1940s.
[264] And last night was the very last show broadcast from there.
[265] And I actually went down and was on a show with my former producer.
[266] And, you know, I had to say it was, I was struck by all the ghosts that were there.
[267] Many of them very personal.
[268] All of the politicians that I had thought one thing back then and now have learned wrong.
[269] So, okay, so that's just sort of my preview there.
[270] Elise DeFonik.
[271] Is this where you remind me that I was signed by JVL in 2018 to write a piece about how great Elise DeFonik was?
[272] Oh, so you're throwing JVL under the bus now.
[273] No, I mean, he and I agreed on this, and at the time she was great.
[274] Okay, so listen, I'm not trying to be embarrassing here.
[275] I mean, I have Ron Johnson on my record.
[276] Yeah.
[277] No, I have Ron Johnson on mine.
[278] I can beat you.
[279] I have Sheriff David Clark.
[280] Okay, okay, okay.
[281] Okay, so I'm not throwing any shade, but I'm thinking about the transformation of the Republican Party, how Marjorie Taylor Green has become more mainstream.
[282] Obviously, Liz Cheney has been excommunicated, but I'm looking at this tweet with a smiling picture of Elise Stefanic, who has gone pure, ultra, ultra MAGA.
[283] The distinction between Elise DeFonic and Marjorie Taylor Green is only on the edges now, isn't it?
[284] Oh, yes.
[285] I mean, Stefanik has to watch her back now because she's got to keep up with Marge.
[286] You've got to make sure that she's, you know, in good stead with the crazies.
[287] That's no question because Matt Gates and Marjorie Green are like best friends and they've been, you know, they've really put a lot of heat on Kevin McCarthy the last couple of years.
[288] And so Elise Stefanik, who's technically keeping her place in the leadership lineup, whether the minority or the majority, but is clearly a contender for, I don't know, Donald Trump's vice presidential mate in the future and any kind of overthrow in the leadership.
[289] I mean, if Donald Trump freaks out and needs to start like a MAGA versus establishment war in the days following the election, and there's, you know, a gazillion reasons that he might want to, and he decides to throw Kevin McCarthy over a cliff and says he shouldn't be speaker.
[290] And he says Elise DeFonix should be speaker, she's got to make sure that she's, she's down with March.
[291] I mean, she's got it.
[292] I just think that I need to highlight some of this, again, and maybe we're both going to be a little bit defensive here for people who say, well, you know, these people were like this all along.
[293] And the answer is, no, they weren't.
[294] Maybe we should have seen things that we didn't see, but these folks have made certain decisions and taken certain paths that, well, that we didn't recognize at the time.
[295] that still come as a shock.
[296] And I, you know, we were down in, in Austin, the Texas Tribune Festival, Tim and Amanda Carpenter and I, and we were, you know, talking about the bulwark and what the bulwark audience was and everything.
[297] And I said, I think people need to understand that one of the subtexts that runs through a lot of what we do is this deep sense of soul -crushing disillusionment and disappointment and regret for what we have missed in the past, what has happened to people that we think, thought we understood, to watch the, you know, the slow motion or maybe not so slow motion, just devolution of almost every single aspect of Republican politics and conservative politics.
[298] You know, you can pick out certain people here and there, but, you know, you look at the conservative media, you look at conservative donors, you look at what we used to euphemistically call think tanks like the Heritage Foundation, and you see the same thing.
[299] And it's, it has been extraordinary.
[300] There are so many Republican members and senators that I was in close touch with regularly that I could not bear to bump into right now in a lobby.
[301] They couldn't look at me. I couldn't look at them looking at me. I mean, oh my heavens, it would just be terrible because I know that they know, that I know.
[302] Yeah, I know.
[303] And we all know.
[304] Okay.
[305] So, So we're talking on Tuesday, tomorrow on Wednesday.
[306] The January 6th committee has its first public hearing since July.
[307] There's some question about whether it will be the last public hearing.
[308] Interestingly enough, nobody seems to know what they're going to be doing tomorrow.
[309] Do you have any insight?
[310] So first, they just said they tried to make it sound like it was going to be boring.
[311] Jimmy Raskin, who once said that the revelations would blow the roof off the house, was so intentionally bending over backwards to lower expectations three days ago.
[312] Then they've kind of said some tantalizing, you know, hints about Secret Service.
[313] So that could be really a big deal.
[314] And we know that a bunch of them lost their phones to the Inspector General once an investigation review commenced.
[315] So there's been some recent news on that kind of stuff, and that could be big.
[316] I just do not believe that the one -six committee is not going to.
[317] produce a shocker.
[318] I just don't.
[319] They've been waiting for two months.
[320] They keep saying that they get more and more information by the week.
[321] And I don't believe it's the last hearing.
[322] So Liz Cheney's the only one who said that.
[323] It might not be the last hearing.
[324] But I just don't think between September 28th and November 8th, we're not going to have another hearing.
[325] And I just don't believe it's going to be a dud.
[326] That's all I know.
[327] Okay.
[328] So let's switch gears, shall we?
[329] Let's talk about the Democrats because you a very provocative piece up at real clear politics are progressives nearing a reckoning with their party.
[330] And it's illustrated by a picture of Wisconsin's own Mark Pocan with the various members of the squad.
[331] And you write, liberal Democrats have racked up a long list of laments since Joe Biden took office.
[332] Topping it off is the failure of their party in control of the White House and the Congress to pass voting rights police reform and the massive social welfare plans once known as build back better.
[333] So talk to me about the question you're asking there.
[334] What happens if Joe Biden steps aside?
[335] What will the free -for -all primaries be?
[336] And what will Democratic voters and leaders do with the progressives who have, you know, thought they were in the ascendancy, but now sound very, very frustrated?
[337] What do you think is going to happen?
[338] Right.
[339] So I took a look back at the intra -party fighting over the buildback better.
[340] And in the end, obviously, we knew that Joe Manchin would write his own bill.
[341] Last July of 2021, he told Chuck Schumer, six months into the new administration, I can stop at $1 .5 trillion.
[342] And everyone thought they should indulge the progressives for months and months and months afterwards with a price tag that was never going to be met.
[343] But they finally got, you know, a lot accomplished the Democrats did in a bipartisan way, which Progressives said shouldn't be done, wouldn't happen, wasn't important, but critically on the issue of defund the police, Joe Biden, not only in the state of the union address in early March, but, you know, other times as well has said, no, we want to fund the police.
[344] And then he gave a speech in Pennsylvania at the end of August, basically explicitly positioning the party as pro -police and rejecting in no uncertain terms this idea of defunding the police.
[345] And then last week, the House passed after months of back and forth with the liberals, additional police funding that the moderate, the frontline Democrats and swing districts have been fighting for months.
[346] The Democrats, the progressives wanted more accountability language for police.
[347] And that's, of course, their big disappointment is that that's what they wanted in police reform, which failed last spring.
[348] And so they have a long list of gripes.
[349] But the truth is, they have failed as well.
[350] They have failed in the primaries to to nominate lefties in swing districts, they only were able to knock off one significant centrist, Kurt Trader of Oregon, and that's because his district became more blue through redistricting.
[351] So they haven't had success when it comes to winning the seats that matter.
[352] The purple districts.
[353] And so they're going to have this moment, right, where we expect a big debate within the party after the midterm elections win or lose about whether Joe Biden is going to serve a second determine if not who should enter into the primary and what the center of the party.
[354] What is the debate of the party?
[355] What is the future of the party?
[356] I think you're going to see a strong push by the establishment that we're not for defund the police.
[357] And if they're smart, they're going to have to accept that in the electorate, the median voter is a white non -college person in their 50s.
[358] And they are not progressive in that the Democrats have faced really scary erosion of support among non -college, black and Hispanic voters in 2020, and could this fall?
[359] So all of that is bad for progressives.
[360] It's not that they won't fight back, but I think that there is going to be, you know, some kind of a reckoning, and there should be.
[361] As you're right, you know, however, should abortion deluge this year's midterm elections and rescue the Democrats, this conversation won't unfold the way it should, as the backlash from the reversal of Roe v. Wade would obscure the liabilities of the party.
[362] has with independence and swing voters on the economy, immigration and crime.
[363] But dismissing the gulf between the vision of progressives and the concern of swing voters, typically a white person in their mid -50s without a college degree, would only hinder the party in 2023 and then 2024.
[364] You argue that Democrats need an accounting that progressives will work mightily to avoid.
[365] So there might be some cleansing fire coming in 2023.
[366] Well, that's the big question.
[367] If this is Roe Vember and everyone row row rose their vote, like we keep being promised by the grassroots, well, if they pick up seats that are going to tell Joe Biden to knock down the filibuster and go crazy, and there's going to be a huge fight.
[368] Part of that will be exacerbated by, even before we get to the primary, by the fact that Nancy Pelosi is likely to leave.
[369] And that even though Hakeeb Jeffries from New York is likely, is pretty assuredly going to, to replace her at the top, it still jostles the whole leadership structure and team.
[370] And there's going to be probably a progressive versus moderate, you know, fight in that contest.
[371] So progressives are going to push back.
[372] I mean, they're going to continue because they don't really want necessary to win and govern.
[373] They really want to fundraise and keep their energy up.
[374] They're fighters.
[375] They're kind of like Donald Trump.
[376] It's not really about resolution.
[377] And settling.
[378] It's like about just staying on offense.
[379] And so they could really create a lot of problems for the party, but I think that, you know, not only in that House leadership fight, but in a scenario where the Democrats do well in the election.
[380] Yeah.
[381] There are these two competing theories, as you point out in your article, the mobilization versus persuasion theory of elections.
[382] The progressives seem to believe that, okay, there are no swing voters.
[383] You know, our goal is not to reach out to these, you know, mythical swing voters, Trump, Trump voters, what we should do is just mobilize our base, get them as worked up as possible, versus the, no, we need to actually persuade people.
[384] I do think that that's where the Pennsylvania race, again, becomes interesting because John Fetterman is quite progressive, but he seems to have a persuasion theory of elections, doesn't he?
[385] He is, in fact, reaching out to voters who might have voted in the past for where Don Trump.
[386] So, and also, as you point out, you know, the control of Congress will not be decided in Berkeley or Madison, Wisconsin.
[387] It will be decided in these swing districts.
[388] And there's not one of these districts, anyone in the country, where someone like an AOC could be elected.
[389] And yet it is the moderates who hold this balance of power who are in the, you know, squarely in the sites of the Democratic left.
[390] I mean, there's a real paradox there, isn't there?
[391] Several paradoxes.
[392] Yeah, it's a real challenge to the party.
[393] I think that on balance between Biden's inauguration and now, the progressives have less influence and that there's been some lessons learned.
[394] But an opening in the Democratic Party, you know, is going to be a little bit of the Wild West and they're going to want to go down fighting, no question.
[395] Boy, do we not know what it's going to look like after November 8th?
[396] It's so wild.
[397] But on the other hand, I mean, I could certainly imagine a scenario as we're talking here where you do have, you know, the Republicans are likely to take over the House of Representatives in perhaps a relatively narrow margin.
[398] And so you have the Republicans who are really, really tied up with a lot of infighting and, of course, you know, pressure to have a weekly vote to impeach Joe Biden, as Adam Kinzinger says.
[399] And by the way, I think he's right about that.
[400] And he reminds us that, you know, remember back in the day when they had a vote to repeal Obama.
[401] Obamacare pretty much every single week and they just kept doing it and doing it and doing it because that's how they raised money and that's what the base wanted.
[402] So they're going to have the impeachment.
[403] So also it's going to be very difficult for that House majority to pivot towards sanity and toward the middle.
[404] At the same time, perhaps you have a reckoning about the, you know, unelectable Democrats.
[405] So in some ways that may be awful, but may be salutary going forward.
[406] At the risk of being.
[407] very nerdy, A .B. Over the weekend.
[408] Again, I was down in Austin, Texas, and I spent the afternoon on Saturday at the LBJ Presidential Library, which I strongly recommend.
[409] And one of the things that struck me was, and I certainly remember all of this, I got my start in politics, campaigning against Lyndon Johnson in 1968 for Eugene McCarthy.
[410] So this is kind of a revisionist history on my part.
[411] to realize what a consequential progressive, extraordinarily consequential progressive, Lyndon Johnson was in a short period of time passing the Civil Rights Act, the War on Poverty, a fair housing legislation, the Voting Rights Act, and yet by the end of his term, he was loathed by his party's own left.
[412] And you think about the crackup that took place right then.
[413] no president has ever passed that series of major pieces of progressive legislation.
[414] And yet rather than embrace him, and obviously there were a lot of reasons, you know, the war in Vietnam, I understand, but also on issues like law and order when he took a stronger stand on the urban riots than the left, he was completely alienated from them.
[415] So there is an historical parallel that the liberal democratic crackup, in the late 1960s was really this split where it was never enough for the left wing of the party.
[416] And, of course, that ushered in, you know, eight years of Republican rule under Nixon, you know, a parenthesis with Jimmy Carter and then 12 years of Republican presidents, starting with Ronald Reagan.
[417] I wonder whether there's any sense among Democrats, you know, remember the last time that we blew things up because our party wasn't pure enough that really didn't work out well for us.
[418] First of all, I think the Democratic electorate is much more moderate than the left will have you believe on social media.
[419] They're more centrist, but I believe that the party is aware of this, but they believe that they, just like the Republican Party does, that they need to sort of coddle some part of the left to co -op that energy.
[420] And then therein lies the rub, because the left, it's all or nothing.
[421] And as you said, it's never enough.
[422] We have the same problem for the Republicans, right?
[423] When there's a discussion after the midterms about unelectable candidates and Mitch McConnell gives some interview and drops a big bomb about people who couldn't win the middle of the electorate and seemed like bozos, Donald Trump will say it was rigged and no wonder they didn't win because blah, blah, blah.
[424] He'll never admit it.
[425] And people will have to defend Donald Trump's lose our candidates if they lose.
[426] And, you know, the right of the party has to cling to a lie about an election that's breaking our democracy apart.
[427] I mean, that's pretty all or nothing to me. So it is a problem on both sides.
[428] I do think the Democrats have done a little bit of a better job with their extremists.
[429] Not perfect, but I hope that the idea that Biden is, is ready to walk away, and I think he is.
[430] You do think he is?
[431] I do.
[432] I think that's why he gave that comment on 60 minutes.
[433] I've believed this for a while that he's known he's going to walk away.
[434] And so on 60 minutes, he said, it's too soon to talk about this because I think he wants people who want to run for president to know, like, it's okay.
[435] Like, you don't have to challenge me. Like, I'm not delusional.
[436] Look, he was going to give a one -term pledge in 2020, and his advisors talked him out of it.
[437] So instead, he gave a euphemism and said he's going to be a transitional figure of bridge the next generation.
[438] I think he knows how old he is.
[439] I think he knows how tired he is.
[440] And I hope when he has that conversation with the party, and I very much hope, as I've written, that he just, does not endorse Kamala Harris, and he just blesses a neutral open primary and says he'll, you know, ultimately embrace the nominee and fight like hell to make sure they win.
[441] I think that, you know, I hope it's an occasion for him to impress upon them how great it is that they've worked with Republicans to pass all this bipartisan legislation, how much the party has to reach out to the middle of the country to win the electoral college, that it can't be an urban party in cities alone to represent a majority in this country.
[442] that there's some frank talk about the party's liabilities.
[443] Can you really see, though, any scenario which Kamala Harris does not win the Democratic nomination?
[444] Have you watched her recently?
[445] I have.
[446] Yeah, I can very much see a scenario which she doesn't win the nomination because I think she's literally among the weakest.
[447] She was among the weakest in the 2020 field.
[448] He picked her because she was a do -no -harm nominee.
[449] She's a political disaster.
[450] No one in the White House believes that she can win a national election.
[451] And, yeah, they might be afraid of black women who will come to her defense, but she doesn't have a rabbi.
[452] She doesn't have a constituency.
[453] There's no one in the party that's like the Kamala wing, right?
[454] There's no Bill Clinton saying, like, you're not going to mess with her.
[455] Like, I'm her rabbi.
[456] You're not going to mess with it.
[457] There's no, she, she doesn't understand politics.
[458] She didn't know why she ran in 2020.
[459] She still can't speak English.
[460] I don't know.
[461] Literally, when people say, Joe Biden, it's so hard to listen to him talk.
[462] Have you listened to her talk?
[463] I mean, I'm just saying, I'm just telling the truth.
[464] And it's terrible for Democrats.
[465] I'm sorry for them.
[466] But, like, she is too weak.
[467] I don't think she, I don't think she can win the nomination.
[468] Okay.
[469] We're going to have many, many opportunities to talk about this in the future.
[470] So I just want to double back on something that's been kind of hanging over this, the conversation, though, the question about the midterms, which is the role of abortion, the abortion debate.
[471] You wrote a piece that I thought was very interesting about Lindsay Graham's 15 -week abortion ban proposal.
[472] This was really, this was the last thing Senate Republicans wanted to talk about, right?
[473] I mean, it's the last thing that they wanted to inject into the debate was a national ban.
[474] And even though they've been scurrying to say, no, no, no, we're not supporting that.
[475] We're not going to do that.
[476] You can't unring a bell, right?
[477] So Lindsey Graham has changed the dynamic a little bit or accelerated the dynamic.
[478] I think would be a better way of putting it of making this election very much about Rover's way.
[479] Yes.
[480] It's kind of like Dr. Oz going into his sartorial assessment of John Federman to help him.
[481] Lindsay Graham thought he was, I don't know, some kind of campaign genius and decided to come up with what is the consensus position and should help Republicans technically.
[482] but anyone who's been following this and appreciates the backlash knows that the Republicans said on June 24th, this is the most democratic solution.
[483] Roe was wrongly decided.
[484] It'll now be up to the people in every state and their state legislature.
[485] It's more representative.
[486] They get to decide.
[487] Then Lindsay Graham calls for a federal ban.
[488] And so what are the voters going to hear?
[489] Federal ban.
[490] And so even though he provided exceptions and it's supposed to be a more relaxed position, than a lot of these trigger laws.
[491] It's a political loser for Republicans.
[492] Everyone around him ran away from it, from McConnell to Cornyn on down, to Rick Scott, who's running the NRC.
[493] It was just a huge fart, and it was a disaster.
[494] And it was a gift to Democrats, and I don't know what Lindsey Graham.
[495] Like, again, maybe he thought he was trying to help, but then he's more lost than he looks.
[496] So it was pretty extraordinary.
[497] And that was kind of the day that the party.
[498] kind of said in so many words, like, we're not talking about this anymore at all.
[499] Like, it's over.
[500] Yeah, well, too bad about that.
[501] I mean, I noticed that they're, you know, scrambling away from their positions, Tudor Dixon in, who's the Republican candidate for governor in Michigan, you know, bizarrely trying to back away from position, Blake Masters scrubbing his, his website, there seems to be a real recognition that this is a liability to Republicans to continue to take the position that they took in the primaries.
[502] It's amazing.
[503] So I think, last time we were on, I said, I, you know, I still believe that, like, if you're the inflation voter and you just think that that's really, you know, that's going to drive your decision and you can't think of anything else, you're still going to come out.
[504] The question is, and there are a lot of them, and we see polls that show, you know, Republicans ahead by double digits on the economy, ahead with independence in the certain swing districts among likely voters.
[505] I mean, there are still really, you know, some bad clouds for Democrats, even though all of the polls generally had trended for them since, June 24th since Roe was overturned.
[506] I do think that it's fascinating how much of a broad backlash this is, that men are mad, that they're learning about things for the first time.
[507] They didn't know their daughters tracked their periods on an app each month whose data can now be subpoenaed.
[508] Like, they've literally just learned this this summer.
[509] And the idea of threatening interstate travel, threatening all birth control, you know, trying to block Plan B, Medicaid, all this stuff.
[510] is making it a far worse discussion than it used to be, which was just about abortion.
[511] And so this idea that in post -Roe America, people are more looking back comfortable with Roe, even pro -lifers, is such a problem for Republicans.
[512] And so I've been fascinated, even in Sarah Longwell's focus groups sometimes, it's not that the voters bring it up right away, but then when the subject comes up, they're like, oh, yeah, I mean, if they're going to take away women's rights and tell me what, It's just, it's going to drive so much energy, and we just have, we have no idea, especially with young people who've never known, who just never could fathom that this wasn't going to be permanent.
[513] I just, I just think Republicans, they might be able to run out the clock in terms of making it go away for 2022 and just take a bunch of hits.
[514] Maybe it doesn't create a massive blue tsunami.
[515] Maybe it just makes for a close election where they would have had a red tsunami.
[516] and it mitigates Democrats' losses.
[517] But Charlie, this is going to be a massive issue for Republicans in 2023.
[518] They're all going to have to take a stand.
[519] And Pence is going to, you know, be cleansing their souls with a federal ban.
[520] He's going to be running on that.
[521] And, you know, DeSantis is going to have to say, I'm happy with my 15 -week thing.
[522] Everyone's going to have to pick whether or not they support exceptions.
[523] And it's going to be a huge problem for Republicans, I think, even after November 8th, in a bigger way.
[524] You know, this was not predictable.
[525] I remember saying at the time the decision came down that people ought to set aside the polls because this was such a fluid situation.
[526] And, of course, there would be a push and a pull between the parties who would succeed in casting the other as most extreme.
[527] And I could certainly have imagined an alternative scenario in which Democrats were portrayed as the party that wanted abortion for all nine months without exceptions.
[528] There's been a lot of track record, you know, with the whole debate about partial birth abortion.
[529] Instead, Republicans basically said, hold my beer, and in one state after another, they passed very, you know, sweeping bands.
[530] And as you point out, Americans are now having conversations they never anticipated.
[531] And because the entire environment has changed because this was a, you know, you had a free shot when there was Roe versus Wade was all in the books.
[532] Politicians could say or do anything because it would never actually affect anything.
[533] Now we're having these conversations about, as you wrote, the future of in vitro fertilization.
[534] calling lawyers before treating hemorrhaging women.
[535] So this is all completely new and it will continue after the midterms and it's going to ramp up.
[536] It's not going to go away anytime soon.
[537] I think that that's a safe prediction at this point, right?
[538] And that's your point is that, you know, whatever happens in 2022, we're going to have to deal with this.
[539] And Republicans especially are going to have to deal with this in the run up to the 2024 election where this is going to to be continue to be a huge wildcard issue it's fascinating um will salatin said um on the on the on the live stream um a couple weeks back that i did with him and jvl that you know that scandals go away in four days because we have no you know attention span but abortion is forever right and for so many reasons it's always present um it's always a part of life but i think that you know if you're nicky Haley, if you're Mike Pompeo, if you're Tom Cotton, they're going to have, I mean, they can run and hide right now for six more weeks as of today.
[540] But I mean, afterwards, right, they're going to have to look at what abortion did, what the electorate told us about abortion.
[541] And they're going to have to decide where they're going to sit and stand.
[542] And that's, that's going to be tough.
[543] Because, you know, even Donald Trump knows this is a disaster politically.
[544] And so he was quiet after the decision.
[545] And it certainly got him elected to promise he would appoint federal society judges, but who would eliminate Roe.
[546] But here we are in the new reality, and he knows it's unpopular.
[547] So it'll be fascinating to see what that debate is like for Republicans next year.
[548] A .B. Stoddard, always a pleasure to have you on the podcast.
[549] Thank you so much.
[550] Thanks, Charlie.
[551] Great to be with you.
[552] The Bullwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Siri.
[553] I'm Charlie Sykes.
[554] Thank you for listening to today's Bullwark and we'll be back tomorrow and do this all over again.