Tim O'Brien: He Will Burn It All Down

[0] Welcome to the Bull Work podcast.

[1] I'm Charlie Sykes.

[2] It is Thursday.

[3] And as I said in my newsletter this morning, warnings against irrational exuberance are very much in order.

[4] But happy Schadenfreude Week for all who celebrate.

[5] And of course, to figure out what's going on down in Mara Lago, what's going on in the Murdoch Empire, what's going on in the temporarily sobered Republican Party.

[6] We're going back to our A -list.

[7] Tim O 'Brien, senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion.

[8] And one of the the somebody who goes, how many years you go back with Donald Trump, 20, 30?

[9] To 1990.

[10] So, sending one to the math there.

[11] Yeah, 30, 32 years.

[12] Tim is the author of Trump Nation, the art of being the Donald.

[13] Well, this is an interesting moment for the man who has built his entire brand about being a big winner, winning so much, you're just going to get tired of winning.

[14] Well, let's, let's set the table here.

[15] Here's Maggie Haberman, who is another close Trump observer, talking about Trump in the wake of the underwhelming non -red wave election.

[16] This is Maggie Haberman on CNN.

[17] We are at a real inflection point.

[18] Clearly, the elites in the party are done with Trump.

[19] We only have to look at this to know just where the elites and the GOP are.

[20] That doesn't necessarily mean it translates to the base.

[21] And so I think we are going to see.

[22] I think Trump is at his most vulnerable than he has been since January 6th.

[23] whether somebody moves forward against him, we'll say.

[24] Key points there.

[25] There's always a difference between the elites, you know, the people who write editorials for the Wall Street Journal and who run the New York Post, et cetera, and the actual base.

[26] I think we've learned that over the last six years.

[27] But here's Franklin's, Republican Franklin's, who went on Morning Joe this morning, clearly expressing this sense of frustration that he's picking up from Republicans, franklins this morning.

[28] The people I talked to over the last 24 hours have essentially said enough Donald Trump.

[29] Enough of this chaos, enough of the yelling and screaming.

[30] They look at the U .S. Senate and they're mad at the former president.

[31] They think that he supported the wrong candidates.

[32] His endorsement still matters within the GOP, but they're frustrated because they think that he is supporting candidates that are simply unelectable.

[33] And we've seen this across the country.

[34] I don't think that Arizona ends up coming for the Republicans.

[35] I think the Democrats have enough of a lead at this point that another Republican -endorsed candidate, Trump -endorsed candidate has failed.

[36] If Ron DeSantis is the big winner among Republicans because of how he governed in Florida, that Donald Trump, at least the people who I talk to, they're all telling me, enough is enough.

[37] Mr. President's time to go away.

[38] Okay, so Tim O 'Brien, what's going on?

[39] What is going on down in Mara Lago?

[40] When people tell Donald Trump, enough is enough, it's time to go away, that just incents him to come right back.

[41] So the idea that any elite opinion in the Republican Party matters a jot to him is it just doesn't.

[42] And in fact, it incents him.

[43] And I don't, you know, the last inflection point, I think, for him really wasn't January 6th.

[44] It may have been for Republican elites, but it was November of 2020 when he lost to Biden.

[45] And back then, the feeling was, well, look, he just got beaten in a presidential election.

[46] His time has passed.

[47] And at the time I was saying to folks then is, be careful because he's just going to want to burn the house down.

[48] He's not going to accept this as a final judgment.

[49] You know, Donald Trump will want his tombstone to say, I won.

[50] and he was going to do something to address that.

[51] January 6th was the outcome of that.

[52] And for a brief moment, after everyone in the Republican elite leadership saw what he would do when he was cornered and facing defeat, lashed out against him, and then aqueathed.

[53] And we could talk about any number of them, but obviously Mitch McConnell acquiesced, eventually, Kevin McCarthy, acquiesced, and then he had all of his enablers like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, et cetera, et cetera.

[54] So I think now, having been embarrassed in the midterms, I just don't think he's going to have any inclination to go away, even if the elites want to.

[55] Now, I think the elites can do a lot to hasten his demise, which they didn't do last time.

[56] I think there's a lot the party could do to begin publicly shutting him in the way that some of the brave pioneers on that front like Liz Cheney have done.

[57] I think Mitch McConnell needs to be much more forceful about it.

[58] Kevin McCarthy's already made his bed.

[59] So I don't know.

[60] I can't imagine he's now going to turn around and say, get out of my party, Donald Trump.

[61] Because he's a Trump creation to some extent.

[62] And the conundrum is he is still going to be a big force in the primary process and he's going to drag people down nationally.

[63] And the Republicans got to figure out how to square that circle.

[64] So you used a phrase that I think is crucial here.

[65] And I was going to build up to it, but I think we might as well, you know, cut right to the chase here.

[66] The phrase you used was that he will burn it all down.

[67] And isn't that the conundrum for the Republican Party?

[68] Is that they either give him the nomination, either acquiesce, or he will burn it down.

[69] He's made it clear.

[70] He doesn't give a damn.

[71] He will sabotage Senate candidates.

[72] He will smear and attack anyone.

[73] There's no way that Donald Trump goes away quietly.

[74] And there is no way to square that, is there?

[75] Because he's the Frankenstein's monster.

[76] Right.

[77] And he's now coming for the villagers, right?

[78] The GOP was happy to have him focus his stuff on the libs and use him as a useful idiot to get a more conservative court, to get a tax cut, to get some practical outcomes of that.

[79] But the impractical outcomes they don't want where he eats his own children is now staring them in the face.

[80] because what he will do is he will sabotage the GOP leadership to the GOP base.

[81] And he will create really vicious internecine warfare within the GOP.

[82] And he will stoke it and perpetuate it without caring whether or not it's good for the party or for electoral strategies or for his own ability to go back into the White House.

[83] He will simply say, all of the people leading your party don't like me because they're bad people.

[84] and you should hate them too.

[85] That's the next phase of this.

[86] No, I think that's inevitable.

[87] Okay, so 72 hours ago, though the Republican conventional wisdom was, well, we need to go along with us, keep our heads down because we need him to win.

[88] We're going to win anyway.

[89] So why push back against the crazy, the hypocrisy, the conspiracy theories, the whatever it was that Donald Trump was engaging in in any, you know, given 24 hour period?

[90] But 72 hours ago, they could convince themselves that they were still on a trajectory to, to win.

[91] And they may have to eat the shit sandwich because that's what the voters were going to reward.

[92] But after Tuesday, there appears to be, you know, some shock recognition that Noah, Trumpism is a boat anchor that Trumpy candidates ran way behind the more normal Republicans.

[93] And so I guess the question is right now, they have the prospect of going with a Trump -like candidate like Ron DeSantis, or going with somebody who increasingly looks like he is absolutely politically and electorally toxic.

[94] So you and I have both seen Republicans cave in over and over and over again.

[95] We know that January 6th didn't turn them.

[96] We know that Charlottesville didn't turn them.

[97] We know that no appeal to decency or principle is going to change their minds.

[98] But what about the prospect of actually losing power?

[99] Does that focus the mind?

[100] Will that It has to.

[101] It has to focus the mind because it always focuses the mind.

[102] I think Mitch McConnell's the proxy for Craven weather veining around the retention of power and doing so in a judicious way, even if it's Craven.

[103] And, you know, he's just a shrewd parliamentarian in that regard, I think.

[104] So we watch McConnell and we watch how the apparatus gels around Ronda Santis, you know, and ultimately like, say, a Ronda Santis Christi Nome ticket or Ronda Santis Nikki Haley ticket, something like that, as more than just a finger in the dike, but a way to rebuild, rebuild the whole dam.

[105] And I do think you're going to see that.

[106] I think the trick will be, however, selling that to voters and how Trump acts while that goes on.

[107] And I feel like that's a TBD still.

[108] You know, obviously, we don't know what's going to happen.

[109] But there are different power centers in the Republican Party.

[110] And we have focused on the base, this, this hardcore percentage of Republicans that are just going to stick with him no matter what.

[111] And I don't know.

[112] Is it 40 % of the Republican base that is going to go with Donald Trump no matter what?

[113] I think it's a lot.

[114] I would say 30 probably.

[115] Some meaningful portion, right?

[116] Okay.

[117] So 30%, which does, you know, suggest his strength, but also some vulnerability.

[118] But that's not the only power base.

[119] You also have the donor class.

[120] You have the media, the entertainment wing of the party.

[121] And you have the elected Republicans, probably the elected Republicans being the least significant of all of those.

[122] But up until now, the donor class has been allied with Trump.

[123] He's had a very reliable media echo chamber.

[124] That seems to be changing, at least in the last 48 hours.

[125] The donor class now is having second thoughts.

[126] Elected Republicans are looking around going, you know, you know, help.

[127] Fox News went after him on election night.

[128] Well, let's talk about that.

[129] Are the Murdox breaking up with him?

[130] Because that's one of the big questions.

[131] You have the Wall Street Journal ripping him.

[132] You have the New York Post with that Humpty Dumpty cover story.

[133] You have Fox News ripping him on election night.

[134] Laura Ingram suggesting this is not about ego.

[135] Now Tucker Carlson is still carrying water.

[136] But so what's going on with the Murdox?

[137] You've watched them for years.

[138] So let's say that the New York Post, the print publication, that's a proxy for Rupert.

[139] And so a Humpty Dumpty editorial is Rupert saying, take a shot at him.

[140] The Fox News Network is a proxy for Lachlan Murdoch, who has been far more Maga than Rupert.

[141] And Lachlan has been willing to allow the Tucker Carlson poison and its variations in Laura Ingraham or others to bleed across the network and to sort of let the most ruthless and vicious forms of propaganda to come out of the airwaves there.

[142] I think that's because that's where Lachlan himself resides.

[143] I think his father is a more practical and kind of cold -blooded strategist.

[144] I think Lachlan has some true believer stuff in him.

[145] So the real moment will be when Fox News wholly begins to disown him.

[146] And it was pretty striking to me, frankly, Charlie, that like even Laura Ingram was sort of going there.

[147] And it was it was only Tucker Carlson who was still on the Pogo stick.

[148] you know, throwing mud at the wall.

[149] And this was just Tuesday night.

[150] So I think if you watch Fox News and they start to air more and more critical pieces about how Trump -backed candidates perform in the midterms, about the investigations facing Trump, about whether or not voters will stand by him, then that's an authentic sea change.

[151] You write, Trump hung like an albatross from the necks of super MAGA contestants, and that may also have suppressed electoral momentum the Republican Party as a whole might have enjoyed otherwise.

[152] Even stalwarts blamed Trump for that.

[153] And then Fox News ran a headline noting that some considered him the biggest loser in the race.

[154] I thought that biggest loser thing on election night was, wow.

[155] And then they had Fox commentators.

[156] Mark Tieson said this was a complete disaster.

[157] So what makes this a little bit different, though, is the contrast between Trump being the biggest loser, which, by the way, obviously he just detests beyond words.

[158] but also the contrast with Ron DeSantis.

[159] And it strikes me that he's having a difficult time processing this.

[160] DeSantis winning so big, just running up the score in Florida and all of these headlines about DeSantis being the future of the party and a winner.

[161] And so Trump actually puts out with his truth statement saying, well, you know, I got more votes, you know, in Florida than Ron DeSantis, which I don't know how you react.

[162] I thought it was kind of weak and pathetic.

[163] Very low energy.

[164] It was very low energy.

[165] It certainly was the way he went after Jab Bush in the first.

[166] first debate where Trump sort of unfurled his viciousness on the national stage and then continue to pick off everyone else in the primary in 2015 and 2016 and then how he took people down in 2020.

[167] I thought it was very weak tea because I think he understands that DeSantis is a formidable competitor.

[168] And DeSantis, I think, not only has assembled this huge majority for the GOP in Florida, he has methodically unwound the Obama coalition in Florida.

[169] Yeah, dramatic.

[170] Practical and strategic way and in a way that Trump has never operated himself as a politician.

[171] Trump operates purely from emotion and playing on people's emotional needs as a politician and appealing to those and their worst instincts.

[172] DeSantis, you know, Desantis doesn't like being in front of a microphone.

[173] He can be very weird on the campaign trail.

[174] He doesn't like to make eye contact with people.

[175] got a lot of kind of personal quirks that could ultimately hobble him as a national candidate, but that's to be seen.

[176] But like in just the day -to -day machinery of politicking and building a coalition, he's done a really significant thing in Florida.

[177] You know, the Obama team really bought a lot of Hispanic and Latino voters in the Democratic fold in Florida, and they are now with the Republicans in a fairly short amount of time in a 10 -year period.

[178] And I think in politics, that just rarely happens.

[179] And there's going to be long generational benefits of that, possibly for the GOP in Florida, that DeSantis is responsible for engineering to some extent.

[180] And Trump has to see that and understand that he's not someone who's capable of that.

[181] And he's never came around if you could help him do it.

[182] Well, and the other, you know, interesting wrinkle here is that this is not a repudiation or a deviation from Trumpism.

[183] As you write, DeSantis is a vessel for Trumpism detached from the absurdist performance art of Trump himself.

[184] And obviously, a lot of voters still appreciate Trumpism, even if it's divorced from its author.

[185] So that's the attraction.

[186] I mean, you can see that there's a lot of investment in the part of much of the conservative media saying, look, you know, Desantis gives you everything that Trump gives you without the crazy.

[187] And they actually can win when Trump himself is a loser.

[188] That's a real threat.

[189] But again, the million -dollar question, billion -dollar question, is whether Ronda Sanders will actually pull the trigger.

[190] I mean, does he have a glass jaw?

[191] Is he willing to put up with the slings and arrows of the kind of attacks that he knows are coming from Donald Trump, who's prepared to burn the house now?

[192] And then also will come at him from the Democrats.

[193] if he runs for president.

[194] And he's never been through that.

[195] And as you know, presidential runs for any candidate of any party, it's a humbling process because all of your weaknesses are going to be tested.

[196] And voters really ultimately respond to candidates in a deeply personal way.

[197] And DeSantis is not a relatable man in a lot of ways.

[198] Not likable, no. Yeah.

[199] So that will be interesting to watch.

[200] But I also think the larger issue is, I don't think conservatives and the GOP have had a full reckoning yet with Trumpism because it's still this anti -institutional, anti -programmatic approach to politicking and acquiring power that is free from policy and free from tolerance is a dangerous thing still and it's alive and well.

[201] Well, and as you point out, Trump was not an aberration.

[202] He's an outcome of the American political process and identity.

[203] And, you know, this is, this is this larger backlash against institutions and elites, and you write, wedded to cold -blooded us versus them identity politics, often, often peddled through bigotry and racism.

[204] And there's no indication that that has run its course in any way.

[205] So let me play a little soundbite, you know, speaking of the right -wing media, Fox News is one aspect, but of course there are many, many other sort of, you know, mini -meas out there that have big audiences.

[206] And one of the most loyal outlets for Donald Trump has been Charlie Kirk and his and his sort of deplorable sidekicks.

[207] Here's an interesting soundbite from one of the most deplorable of these juvenile sidekicks, Benny Johnson, who is ranting and raving about the election, but also talking about what the appeal of DeSantis might be to folks like him.

[208] him.

[209] And again, this is, if you're Donald Trump, you have to be watching, what is it that DeSantis is going to bring to the right -wing deplorable maggot table at this moment?

[210] So this is Benny Johnson on Charlie Kirk's show.

[211] Will Republicans use power?

[212] This is my question.

[213] Will they wield power?

[214] Because if you have a single takeaway as the result stands right now, it is that what the Republican electorate wants is a strong executive who utilizes and wields power over his enemies and then destroys his enemies and makes them grovel, makes molten, salty tears flow from their faces.

[215] Wow, Charlie.

[216] That's pretty much it, huh?

[217] Spoken like a true fascist.

[218] And he's talking about Ron DeSantis.

[219] And then he goes on to basically say that he doesn't think that other Republicans, like Kevin McCarthy, you can be able to deliver.

[220] They're going to be wimpy cucks like Paul Ryan and everything.

[221] And then there's, you know, Donald Trump's just sort of sitting there with that loser mantle in Mara Lago, and he's got to be, you know, he's savvy enough to know that when his own boys are saying, Ron DeSantis is the guy who's going to give us the liberal tears, that, that goes right to the brand, doesn't it?

[222] Totally because it's locker room chatter, and that's where Trump lives, right?

[223] It's like beat them in the streets, you know, this is why Trump was, you know, an incredible admirer of John Gotti's, and he always felt that like John Gotti was so admirable, the mobster John Gotti, because he beat his enemies.

[224] into a pulp and he never cried under pressure and and and if some people are saying there are other people on the on the national scene who are more macho than donald and these are his own homies saying it it's going to disc him fit him to no end he's beating his driver against a tree right now in mara lago is his golf club not his car driver you know he's breaking clubs over his knees and and it's only going to get worse yeah and i'm sorry i had to make a joke on twitter yesterday that the red wave turns out to be just what the ketchup is sliding down the wall at mara lago okay so tim here is i think the most interesting immediate question and i really wanted to get your take on it because you have you have sort of an entree into donald trump's head he on monday when he was expecting the red wave he announced that he is going to have this big announcement on november 15th the next week he's going to announce for president and everybody expect that The big, you know, it was all lined up.

[225] And then, of course, Tuesday happened.

[226] And there's pressure, even from within the family now, the Jason Miller's of the world saying, hey, maybe you shouldn't announce next week.

[227] Maybe you shouldn't announce before the Georgia, you know, runoff election.

[228] You would, you know, detract attention from that.

[229] Okay, so here's the big question.

[230] What's he going to do?

[231] Are we going to have a failure to launch?

[232] Could Donald Trump's stomach basically having to slink away from.

[233] his own announcement.

[234] I do not think he's going to announce.

[235] I think the whole reason he put this into play was like everyone else, he was distracted by inaccurate polling.

[236] I think he thought that the midterms were going to create inevitability around the MAGA movement and around him personally.

[237] And he would coast off of that like a surfer riding a wave.

[238] Exactly.

[239] And instead, Instead, all the water has gone out to sea.

[240] And he is left high and dry to say with this bad metaphor.

[241] Yeah.

[242] Which I like.

[243] Yeah.

[244] And with Donald Trump is an unsophisticated, ignorant man, but the one thing he understands is marketing.

[245] And he understands how to pick your moment.

[246] And he has to understand right now that for him to come out, after all of his candidate sucked wind, for him to then come out and say, yes, I'm declaring he runs the risk of being a laughing stock, not someone who is seen as inevitable.

[247] So I can't imagine he's going to announce next week or next month for that matter.

[248] I think he seems weak.

[249] Seems low energy, Tim.

[250] I mean, I'm telling you.

[251] Yeah, he's not going to do it.

[252] He's not going to do it.

[253] I just don't think he's going to do it.

[254] But here's the rub, Charlie, is that he actually needs to run for the presidency to stay in the game.

[255] He loves the media attention.

[256] If he's not running for president, he won't get it.

[257] He's learned how to make money off running for the presidency.

[258] He's not going to run for the presidency.

[259] He won't get it.

[260] He also is mired in hardcore investigations at the federal and state levels.

[261] And I think he believes his candidacy and a possible second tour in the White House would insulate him from those.

[262] So for all those reasons, he's going to feel compelled to run.

[263] And I still think he may, but I just don't think he's going to announce it in the near term because the midterms were such a thawking.

[264] Okay, so this is a related question.

[265] Republicans are going to want him not to go to Georgia for the December 6th runoff.

[266] And as you pointed out at the beginning of this podcast, he doesn't care what the Republican elites say.

[267] So do you think he'll go to Georgia?

[268] Because if he doesn't go to Georgia.

[269] If he doesn't announce, he doesn't go to Georgia, isn't that this major concession that, in fact, he understands that he is politically toxic?

[270] And that he doesn't have Mojo to lend to other candidates.

[271] Yeah.

[272] Yeah, I do.

[273] But remember, you know, Georgia, the Georgia runoff at the end.

[274] You fucked that up last time.

[275] He fucked that up last time, too.

[276] I got a real life show.

[277] I love that.

[278] I love that we get f that up on Charlie's show.

[279] He did fuck that up.

[280] to 2020.

[281] And I think Warnick got a lift because Trump was a factor in that race in the Senate race in Georgia.

[282] So here we are with Warnick again, head -to -head with Herschel Walker, who's a MAGA drone.

[283] And I think Trump will hurt Walker.

[284] So why would he go there and be present at the demise?

[285] So I don't think he'll go to Georgia, though I hope he will.

[286] Yeah.

[287] If you're the Democrats, That's what you want is that he announces that he's running for president, puts himself directly on the ballot.

[288] And he, I think one of the things we learned from the middle appearances with Herschel Walker.

[289] Exactly.

[290] Because what is the secret formula for turning out Democratic voters?

[291] I think we found this out, right?

[292] I mean, it is Donald Trump.

[293] I mean, I could certainly make that case in a number of states.

[294] I want to talk about the midterms for a second, but I want to stick to something else you just brought up here.

[295] as of Wednesday, the window opens again on the possibility of indictment of Donald Trump.

[296] The Department of Justice has this internal rule that it doesn't do anything before the midterm elections.

[297] Well, that is over.

[298] So Donald Trump is faced with, look, I mean, we've had these bad moments before, and I don't want to, you know, recapitulate them all.

[299] But it does seem that there is kind of a perfect storm at the moment where he's facing all of these legal charges, the possibility he will be indicted, the possibility, you know, and his own conservative media turning against him.

[300] So his instinct, though, as you point out, is to lash out, is to push back, is to go on the offensive.

[301] He's just not going to sit there and wait for the grand jury.

[302] He's not going to sit and wait to decide what, you know, Fox News does to him, right?

[303] So that's why I'm torn about what he's going to do because he has to stay in the spotlight, right?

[304] Yes, yes, he does.

[305] And he's got to fix this brand problem.

[306] I mean, he's got to, the one.

[307] thing in the world he has to do, right, Tim, is to shake this, I'm the biggest loser thing.

[308] See, the reason I think that he is going to go on a rampage and devour his own within the GOP, or at least try to, is because this isn't fixable now.

[309] There's a public referendum.

[310] His candidates lost.

[311] He lost in 2020.

[312] What he chose to do when he lost in 2020 was to try to foment a coup and actually tear the Constitution apart.

[313] That option is not available to him now because this is an inter -party problem.

[314] It's not a national election.

[315] And the only thing he can do that's comparable to staging a January 6th coup attempt is to savage everyone else in the party.

[316] The only thing he can do to respond to the law enforcement investigations is to savage the integrity of law enforcement, which he's already done and he'll do more.

[317] But I don't think people are going to buy it.

[318] No, this is very, very interesting because you're right.

[319] I mean, part of this Wall Street Journal editorial about him being the biggest loser, part of the power of that is that they're linking together.

[320] He flopped in 2018, 2020, 2021, and now 2022.

[321] So he's got that track record.

[322] So what would be his equivalent?

[323] Okay, so let's just game this out.

[324] If, in fact, Kerry Lake loses in Arizona, she, of course, will not concede graciously, which, by the way, just parenthetically, it is kind of remarkable, isn't it, the number of MAGA candidates who are conceding gracefully?

[325] Completely, completely.

[326] It's really interesting, isn't it?

[327] She is already impuged in the process, so she may not be peaceful, but she will not be in keeping with the other MAGAs who have not alleged fraud.

[328] Right.

[329] So you could imagine that Donald Trump decides that he's going to replay his greatest hits of January 6 by staging, you know, a major, you know, the election in Arizona has been stolen, we need to descend upon Arizona and do X, Y, and Z, that sort of thing, as a distraction.

[330] I could certainly see him doing that if she loses that election, because if I'm taking your point, he needs chaos, he needs the fire, he needs the smoke, and he will bring it.

[331] Yes.

[332] So what do you think happened?

[333] What is your take on why the conventional wisdom was so wrong?

[334] look, you and I both read this stuff, and we know that the entire hive mind had shifted, that this was going to be a massive red wave.

[335] I think that there's some unfair criticism of the polls because some of the polls got it right.

[336] There are a lot of really crappy, shitty, shitty polls out there.

[337] And I think that one of the things to remind ourselves is do not conflate the shitty polls with the good polls.

[338] But there's no question about it.

[339] Everybody bought into this narrative.

[340] And clearly, the voters did not behave as expected.

[341] So why were Democrats, why were Democrats not blown out?

[342] And, you know, when there's 8 % inflation, how does that happen?

[343] Well, I love that you mentioned inflation, because I actually think inflation is not a totemic device.

[344] It is part of a broader basket of economic indicators.

[345] And actually, the job market has been really robust.

[346] And it has held its own over the last couple of years.

[347] The markets have not totally imploded.

[348] corporate profitability has not been savage and inflation has been really horrendous but you can't just lay that on the Democrats even average voters understand that some of the inflation is due to supply chain disruptions in the chaos of engendered by COVID -19 that some of it is from big federal spending a portion of it which they liked because it went to help the economy and workers during COVID.

[349] Some of the other piece of it, you could argue, that weren't, you know, well thought through, but a portion of it was meaningful to a broad base of Americans.

[350] And another part of this, I think, for the average voter, is that, yes, they're living inflation, but they also have more security than the inflation numbers would suggest.

[351] And so I don't think people were feeling as bedraggled by the economy as people assumed because of the inflation numbers.

[352] And then I think inflation was turned into this sort of scare tactic by the right.

[353] You know, if you go to the pump, you should equate that with how bad Biden is.

[354] And but I think people were equating other things in their lives economically and they're not happy.

[355] I think Biden's approval rating is bad.

[356] But I don't think any of this was so cataclysmic economically that they we're willing to say, we will embrace MAGA candidates, and we will embrace even more moderate Republicans.

[357] So I think there was too much put on the back of inflation.

[358] I think the GOP has underestimated how important reproductive rights are to female voters.

[359] And I think that that's a more salient issue than people and continue to be more than people thought it would be after the Dobbs decision kind of had cooled off for a little while.

[360] And I think the factors that are misinterpreted.

[361] Well, and also going forward then, they have to realize that that's going to be an enduring issue and it's going to be a major issue in 2024.

[362] Yes.

[363] And I think that there was a moment in the last few weeks of the campaign where, you know, listening to Kerry Lake, listening to other candidates, the lack of any blowback whatsoever when Donald Trump is attacking Mitch McConnell's wife as Cocoa Chow and putting out anti -Semitic tweets and things like that, that there was this sense that because of the coming red wave I mean, because of inflation, that there were no consequences.

[364] They get indulged in any sort of crazy rhetoric.

[365] And I think part of the sobriety is like, holy shit, despite these stories we've been telling ourselves, the crazy does hurt us.

[366] The candidate quality was devastating for us.

[367] And voters are watching.

[368] And voters are watching.

[369] And maybe they actually did care about democracy.

[370] I mean, it became very fashionable, didn't it?

[371] In the pundit class to say, yeah, okay, voters, you know, talk a good game about democracy, but it won't actually affect votes.

[372] So Dobbs affected votes and apparently...

[373] January 6th committee hearings affected votes for sure, more than the more than people thought they would.

[374] Why do you say that?

[375] It's interesting.

[376] I think the January 6th committee hearings educated Americans.

[377] That's why they care about democracy.

[378] That's part of the reason.

[379] I don't know that they're voting entirely around that.

[380] But when they say, I care about the state of democracy, they have a heightened sense of it because of the J6 hearings.

[381] Interesting.

[382] I think.

[383] And they were televised and they were educational.

[384] And that's a powerful force.

[385] And I think voters care about the state of democracy.

[386] They care about abortion.

[387] They care about their jobs.

[388] They care about their kids.

[389] And the GOP is going to have to get a better game plan together than scare tactics around crime and inflation.

[390] Because I think some of the crime, even the crime statistics, we could get into this.

[391] But some of the data, certainly there's been a spike in crime, no doubt.

[392] But it's still better than it was two decades ago or a decade ago.

[393] So again, are people actually living the fears that the GOP say exist?

[394] Are they really enduring the economic problems that the GOP says inflation represents?

[395] Are they as scared on the streets as the crime data suggests they might be?

[396] and that the GOP is really ramped up.

[397] I don't know that they are.

[398] See, I was beginning to think that, in fact, crime was going to be a much bigger issue.

[399] But the states where it was really pounded, where I thought it might make a difference would be like New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

[400] And with the exception of the Wisconsin Senate race, it did not turn out to be the issue.

[401] And I do think that Republicans thought that that was the magic bowl.

[402] They thought they were going to win the governorship in New York.

[403] If it was really a devastating issue, there's no way that John Farrie.

[404] Federman would have been reelected.

[405] And you look at Michigan.

[406] I mean, Michigan was really a blue tsunami underappreciated.

[407] Not only did you have the Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer reelected, you had the entire legislature flip for the first time in a very, very long time.

[408] That's an story.

[409] Totally.

[410] I don't know that I have an answer.

[411] I don't know that you'll have an answer and we need to think about, though, because you watch what happened in, and again, these are the crucial states that will determine, you know, the future of presidential politics, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin.

[412] So why are they so different than Florida?

[413] What is happening in Florida that is taken a swing state and made it so freaky red?

[414] What is going on down there?

[415] Well, that's a whole episode, Charlie.

[416] Like, we get on a whole Florida episode.

[417] I'm sorry to drop that in the end of the thing, but okay.

[418] Yeah, I mean, I feel like like we need a whole hour on that because it's fascinating um i mean oh boy i think the florida electorate is a very unusual electorate i don't know that they're as participatory sometimes i don't think democrats there necessarily as participatory as democrats in other states oh gosh we could go on and on i'm we will do that i mean i just think that's worth thinking about to to watch this because and and i remember election night i we had a we had a live stream and and it reminded me of the mood um in 2018 and 2020 and where the first results we got were out of Florida, and it looked like this big Republican night and everything.

[419] And I remember saying, could you just wait?

[420] Because I think that Florida is kind of an outlier that, you know, Florida's Hispanic vote is very different than the Hispanic vote, you know, elsewhere.

[421] And, you know, let's wait to see what's happening in the Midwest.

[422] And I said that in 2018 and 2020.

[423] And it turned out to be the case.

[424] But it is a remarkable story.

[425] And of course, we still don't know what the end of this story is, do we?

[426] I mean, I'm, look, I no longer expect that I'm going to get a unicorn for my bird.

[427] birthday, but I would really like Lauren Bobert to go down.

[428] I don't know whether that's actually going to happen.

[429] Maybe it's too much to also, you know, hope that, you know, the Queen of Magistan, you know, Cary Lake goes down.

[430] But it was, it was really extraordinary.

[431] We can only hope, Charlie.

[432] We can only hope.

[433] And we will leave it on that note of hope, which is very unusual for this podcast.

[434] Tim O 'Brien, thank you so much for joining us again on the Bulwark podcast.

[435] Thanks, Charlie.

[436] I love these conversations.

[437] The Bullwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Siri.

[438] I'm Charlie Sykes.

[439] Thank you for listening to today's Bull Work podcast, and we'll be back tomorrow and do this all over again.