Tim Miller: They're Still Humoring Him

[0] Welcome to the Bull Work podcast.

[1] I'm Charlie Sykes.

[2] It is Friday, and it has been way too long to have Tim Miller back on.

[3] Tim, happy Friday.

[4] Happy weekend.

[5] Way, you're always bumping me for that Adam Kinsinger.

[6] What?

[7] Just because he, you know, fought in the military and was in Congress and, you know, has a snappy Twitter feed now.

[8] That's fine.

[9] Okay.

[10] That's fine.

[11] If you have a new love.

[12] But you were always in my heart.

[13] I always knew that we were going to do the catch -up.

[14] And, of course, you've been.

[15] being a road warrior in Iowa this past week, I want to talk to you about all of that.

[16] So, one of the thing I was thinking about as I was sitting down here with you, Tim, I need your advice on something, or just your thoughts on all of this.

[17] I love that.

[18] I've thought about whether we need to have life coaching something.

[19] Yeah, yes, this is exactly what I could be a good life coach, but anyway.

[20] One of the experiences, and you wrote a whole book about this over the last seven years, has been watching people, you know, lose their minds.

[21] And I don't mean that in some metaphorical, you know, existential way.

[22] I mean, losing their minds.

[23] People have just, it is like you can feel as if all of the neurons sort of just fried themselves with all the crazy.

[24] And every conversation that I've had over the last couple of weeks eventually comes back to, so how do you stay sane?

[25] How are you going to get through the next year and a half?

[26] I mean, isn't it a part of you, you look at the calendar and you go, oh, my God, okay, it's going to be something.

[27] I mean, it's a year, but we have to go through this again.

[28] And when I say that people are losing their minds, I mean, I think people are, they emotionally are fried out by all of this.

[29] It's the stupidity, it's the pressure, it's the relentlessness.

[30] We're all overwhelmed, and let's be honest with it.

[31] I mean, people are listening to this podcast, but then they're probably nodding their heads because there has to be some days where you go, it's just too much.

[32] So, I don't know, what is your life coaching?

[33] How do we not become completely insane over the next year?

[34] I'm thinking about prospectively.

[35] You don't know what I mean, by the way?

[36] Do you think about the last seven years?

[37] The number of people who, something's happened to them, and I understand it.

[38] I mean, you cannot be an emotional, intellectual punching bag, you know, day in and day how weekend and week out without paying a price.

[39] So, I don't know, tips.

[40] There's a lot of broken people.

[41] I was on the end of COVID that like one person on every text chain I'm on has completely broken and you know and sometimes that might mean going crazy and radical and sometimes that means just I just don't want to talk about politics anymore which I understand that just completely checks out you know my negative side of what you're saying is I think part of the reason why it's so daunting is like there's really no like light at the end of the tunnel you know which makes this a little different right even in 2016 and through 2020 it's like oh, we get rid of this guy, and then things are going to get better.

[42] And, like, that isn't really there.

[43] There's no light at the end of the ton of the Republican Party.

[44] And, you know, we can all quibble over how much everybody likes Joe Biden.

[45] I might like him a little more than most, but even still, he's an older.

[46] And there's no real, you know, it's not like there's some excited, everybody's so excited that we're going to get to move on to this other thing.

[47] And I think that that is hanging over all this.

[48] You know, for me, there are two things.

[49] One, and I hope this is useful for our listeners, we're going to talk about this.

[50] It is actually good for my brain to be out there with the, real people.

[51] And I think that the exception, it did not give me, I don't mean this in the Polyana optimistic sense, as you're about to find out.

[52] I didn't go to Iowa and think, oh, man, people are really great and good out there and things are going to turn out better.

[53] I don't mean it like that.

[54] But there's just something about the just parade of horribles on your social media feed and in the emails that gets to wear on me. And so actually being out there and kind of having an engagement and learning the nuance.

[55] And even if it's a dark, you're hearing about people's real stories.

[56] I mean, I just, I had a very interesting conversation with a woman who was there on January 6th.

[57] And you can tell she's one of the broken people, really.

[58] But she had a humanity about her.

[59] She didn't end up going into the Capitol.

[60] She didn't do anything, you know, she's one of the ones who's been fooled.

[61] And we had very long conversation.

[62] And in some ways, that was nourishing for me, even though it wasn't hopeful, if that makes sense.

[63] The other big advice I have for you and for everybody is it's nice to have friends and interests that aren't politics.

[64] And I just, This has been a big part of my move here.

[65] I've been in New Orleans.

[66] I've got a lot of pals who that don't follow this shit.

[67] Don't listen to us.

[68] I've got a couple of pals who that listen to us, hi, guys.

[69] But most of them don't listen to us.

[70] And I like that.

[71] And I just think that is absolutely necessary.

[72] And when I meet people who say, I love you from MSNBC, my advice is always maybe one hour less a day.

[73] I know I'm not, I hope that my bosses aren't listening to this.

[74] But just like one hour less a day, finding something else, read some fiction.

[75] It's different for everybody.

[76] going, you know, bird watching for some people, you know, LSU football's coming up for me, whatever it is for you.

[77] I think, you know, my book reading is I do one homework, one, one treat.

[78] So I just go back and forth on my book reading.

[79] I give myself a treat that's something totally separate from all this.

[80] So anyway, that's my life advice.

[81] Let me maybe pick up right there because you made a couple of different points.

[82] I do think that one of the reasons why people are, you know, feeling the pressure right now is, is, Exactly as you put your finger on it, back in 2016, and actually in 2020, we could all sort of, we could cling to the illusion that, okay, you know, once this is over, we can get back to our lives, right?

[83] That you see the end.

[84] You see that light of the, at the end of the tunnel.

[85] And I certainly remember that, you know, people saying, well, what are you going to do next year?

[86] And I'm saying, you know, I'll think about next year because we just got to get through this and then things are going to be okay.

[87] And four years later was thinking the same thing.

[88] Now, It is hard to think that it's ever going to get back to normal.

[89] And I think that's part of why it feels even heavier after all of this.

[90] So that's number one.

[91] Number two, getting out in the world.

[92] I know exactly what you're talking about.

[93] I remember, you know, a few years back.

[94] And, you know, like you, we can get caught up in social media and start to think that that's the world and, you know, the kind of vitriol in the back and forth and everything.

[95] And I actually remember being down.

[96] I think it was, oh, I think it was, was it Tucson or Phoenix?

[97] It was at some event.

[98] and we're having an interesting conversation about politics.

[99] I remember being actually surprised to realize that, hey, this is the real world, these are real people, and they're not crazy, they're reasonable, and we're having this conversation, and it was really refreshing.

[100] So I knew exactly what you're picking up on.

[101] As far as the therapy, you know, everybody does have something different.

[102] I do think it's a good idea to turn it off once in a while.

[103] You know, I try to cultivate a sense of humor about all of this, which is very, very difficult, and something, how can you laugh when American democracy is burning?

[104] If you don't laugh, American democracy will burn, and you will burn with it.

[105] Okay, that's number one.

[106] But in terms of like, you know, the way I step out of it, you mentioned your reading habits, I read fiction, but also weirdly enough, and maybe this is just idiosyncratic, it's therapeutic for me to read histories about other dysfunctional periods of history to kind of realize, okay, we're not the only people who live through a shitstorm.

[107] You know, it used to be really, really bad.

[108] My favorite television show is Babylon, Berlin, 1929 Berlin, because it's kind of escapist, but also it's realized, you know, you realize that, okay, you know, things have, you know, been worse in the past.

[109] It is important to do all that.

[110] And also, you know, you moved to New Orleans.

[111] I am, have I talked to you about this?

[112] I'm kind of preparing for a major lifestyle change.

[113] It's kind of, kind of big for me. Oh, no. No, I don't know if you have talked to me about this.

[114] We're doing it live.

[115] I am about to have a teenager in the house again.

[116] Really?

[117] I'm about to go to soccer games again.

[118] I love that for you.

[119] My French grandson has decided that I am the Ferrari of granddad's, and he wants to come and live here and go to school for the next semester.

[120] Now, assuming that all of the papers are all approved and all the passports and everything, fingers crossed.

[121] You know, at the end of August, I'm going to have a teenager in the house.

[122] Wow.

[123] again?

[124] I mean, the teenager, awesome for him.

[125] I mean, God, America, you know, sometimes we get down on America.

[126] America is great.

[127] There's a lot of great reasons to come here, despite all the problems we have.

[128] But he's going to leave France for Wisconsin.

[129] That's a little bit of a confusing choice for me, but I'm open to hearing why.

[130] Well, it's going to be interesting to see, you know, this country through his eyes.

[131] Because, I mean, obviously he'll have a different perspective, but he's very excited.

[132] I mean, he loves soccer.

[133] He's signed, I've signed him up for the suburban soccer leagues and everything.

[134] visited the school, the middle school and everything.

[135] And because his mom, my daughter, is an American citizen, he and his brother just got their American citizenship last week.

[136] Got it.

[137] And so he is a dual citizen, and he's very excited.

[138] I obviously, you know, this is one of those things we're like, okay, this is exciting.

[139] I'm proud for him.

[140] I hope we don't let him down.

[141] You know what I mean?

[142] I mean, I hope the experience is a good experience.

[143] I'm glad it's dual.

[144] Duel is kind of nice there.

[145] You know, you wouldn't want to come back and come back to the Donald Trump, MAGA, idiocracy, autocracy.

[146] That would be a poorly time to move.

[147] But I remember thinking, and, you know, when this idea first came up, you know, it seemed a little bit fanciful, and now he's coming.

[148] And, you know, part of me is thinking, well, okay, this is, I get, this is a flashback.

[149] It's kind of a do -over, being dad type thing.

[150] But also, it's like having, for me, having to go back into real life, having to go to events, like soccer matches and parent conferences and meet other kids' parents and things like that.

[151] So this is going to be...

[152] I'm excited to this.

[153] We should start to have a segment at the end of the Friday pod where I get an update on your fatherhood part two.

[154] Okay, so let's talk about the news of the weekend.

[155] I want to talk about your Iowa thing.

[156] I'm going to put this in the category of the least surprising story of the week that Donald Trump announces that, hell no, he's not going to sign that pleasure to support the Republican nominee, which is the requirement to be on the debate stage, which he was never going to be at.

[157] So, Tim, it's interesting to me, watching all these other Republicans, you know, sign the pledge and sign the pledge because they want to be loyal Republicans and they don't want to be, you know, they don't want to be considered a rhino and they don't want to, you know, get on the wrong side of MAGA.

[158] And there's Donald Trump, it basically goes, yeah, screw it.

[159] Okay, let's start.

[160] These people are so pathetic, Charlie.

[161] It's just like really gobsmacking kind of.

[162] And it's like, we live through all this.

[163] They've learned nothing.

[164] Yeah, that's why it's exhausting.

[165] I'm sorry.

[166] Yeah, we spent the first 10 minutes, you know, having to do some little therapy because it's like, we already did this.

[167] We did the pledge thing.

[168] Back in 2016, I was with Jeb when we were like, this is so stupid that your friend writes previous is making us do this.

[169] And he's taken the train up to New York to try to get Donald Trump, who's never signed a contract that he's kept in his entire life.

[170] He thinks this non -binding piece of paper is going to.

[171] going to make some fucking difference.

[172] And we're in a Dunkin' Donuts in New Hampshire.

[173] And Jeb just, like, writes down on a, on the table.

[174] It's like voted Republicans since 19, whatever.

[175] I don't want to.

[176] I forget what the year was that he turned 18.

[177] And, uh, and, you know, tweeted it out.

[178] And he's just like, there's my, there's my pledge, asshole.

[179] And it's like, Donald Trump, they walk into this bait every time where it's like, oh, you know, if we butter him up, if we, if we're just nice to him, if we just try to please them, if we just, have we just try to keep the lion in the cage.

[180] you know, then maybe he'll behave better next time.

[181] It's like, how can you still think this?

[182] How could these guys have been fooled by this?

[183] And, you know, Nikki Haley, I don't know, did you see this one?

[184] What she did?

[185] Yeah, I did.

[186] I clicked on it almost, I don't know why, maybe I'm the idiot.

[187] I had like a false sense of hope of something, that maybe that Nikki Haley had, you know, an I owed of integrity left because the tweet was a teaser.

[188] And it said, you know, Nikki Haley signs pledge with one caveat.

[189] And I was like, oh, what could that caveat be?

[190] You know, I clicked on it.

[191] I was like, maybe she was like, if the nominee has been convicted, three times of felonies if the nominee is convicted of insurrection against the country then maybe I want.

[192] No. In the plunge she crossed out, you know, I pledged to support the Republican against President Biden and replaced it with President Harris.

[193] And it's like, oh, that's so clever, so cute.

[194] And it's like so funny that you're making a mockery of this as you, for some reason, have decided to pledge your undying loyalty to somebody that could not give a shit less about you or this country.

[195] or the Constitution or any of that.

[196] So, anyway, the whole thing is so pathetic.

[197] So we started off with self -therapy, and now I'm having PTSD flashbacks because, you know, to the moment that Reince Prebus begged unbended knee for Donald Trump to sign the pledge, I actually had a flashback to exactly where I was standing when I was walking the dogs, talking on my cell phone to Reince Prebus, and he was telling you about this, and I was expressing my opinion on like, Reins, why are you doing this shit?

[198] And, you know, back then, You think about the real turning points, they were so terrified back then that Donald Trump would run as a third party candidate that they had to do this.

[199] This was their way of keeping him in the tent, which, as you point out, you know, is an absurd, you know, episode of self -delusion.

[200] And they're still doing it so many years later.

[201] Again, when I say least surprising story, Donald Trump has made it clear that you either nominate me or I will burn the whole thing down.

[202] Right.

[203] I mean, there's no third option.

[204] Donald Trump will never graciously concede.

[205] He will never graciously acknowledge that he lost.

[206] He will not graciously support the nominee of the Republican Party if it's not him.

[207] And this is really not any different than the position that they were in in 2016.

[208] And as you point out, they've learned nothing.

[209] Absolutely nothing.

[210] This is where it just related to this, actually, the political side of this.

[211] I've come around kind of changing my view on this, on this.

[212] The conventional wisdom still among, I think, the media class and the never -Trump or elite classes that anybody would be better than Trump for Republicans.

[213] I can't, even among Democrats.

[214] A lot of Democrats, right?

[215] I just feel this way.

[216] You mean them as in terms of electability?

[217] Electability, in terms of electability.

[218] Yeah, okay.

[219] Right.

[220] This, exactly this point that you bring up about how he's going to burn the whole thing down regardless, I'm like less convinced that that's even true anymore, right?

[221] I mean, Desantis's campaign has been so poor.

[222] We'll talk about that.

[223] There's nobody else.

[224] I mean, I guess Tim Scott, like this notion that Tim Scott's going to win, I think is preposterous.

[225] And if one of these guys was to beat Trump, or if one of these guys was to, you know, win in some kindly contested efforts, the idea that Trump is going to send his mega forces out to vote for them, you know, then maybe there's a pardon at play.

[226] And there's a lot of, you know, potential interesting things to discuss, no matter how depressive it is over the next year.

[227] So there are a lot of ins and outs and what have you.

[228] But that said, it's just, it's kind of hard to see anybody else being able to put together a better coalition.

[229] as crazy as that seems because of, you know, Trump's nature, right?

[230] Like that there's no, there's nothing that you can make him sign that would not make him be, you know, be a happy warrior, you know, I guess with the exception of, you know, potentially a pardon.

[231] You know, I heard you make that point the other day and I wins to the first.

[232] Then I thought, no, you know, you're right, especially with this dynamic that we're describing, you know, in terms of electability.

[233] I mean, in terms of just substance, no one is as bad as Trump.

[234] No one is worse than Trump.

[235] I'm sorry.

[236] I'm willing to die on that.

[237] including Ronda Sanders, I mean, because Trump is uniquely awful, dangerous, everything.

[238] But in terms of electability, that's where that whole argument, you know, falls apart because, you know, which nominee will be leading a non -split party.

[239] So, you know, again, Donald Trump is never going to debate, is he?

[240] He's not going to never going to get on that debate stage.

[241] I don't think so.

[242] The only exception I could think about to this, he's definitely not going to do the second one is at the Reagan library and he definitely won't do that because some internal drama, some story that, you know, even the closest watchers of us don't remember but that Donald Trump remembers of his lizard brain is when the Ronald Reagan Institute said that they didn't want to have Trump's name on something or whatever.

[243] So there's some slight of Donald Trump.

[244] That's what he remembers more than anything.

[245] He doesn't know any policies, but he remembers slights.

[246] So he won't do the second one.

[247] I think it's 98 % likely than he doesn't do this first one.

[248] And I think that the right thing is just to watch.

[249] not coming to Milwaukee.

[250] And so the question is, does like the anger of, you know, of Norma Jasmine, as you and Olivia put it, like sitting in Mar -a -Lago, you know, just kind of watching all of them talk about him two times, can he not handle, not having the spotlight on him and not proving that he is the alpha male, that's the only thing that makes me think maybe it's more like a 50 -50 chance at the third one.

[251] By the third one, also the number gets higher.

[252] So a lot of the riffraff from his perspective, from our perspective, you know, the noble candidates will be off the stage by then.

[253] You know, it's hard to imagine that the Asa Hutchinson's of the world who are struggling to get to this first threshold are going to get to the third highest threshold.

[254] So I don't know, 50 -50 on the third debate, but it seems exceedingly unlikely before that.

[255] I guess I'm more bearish on all of this.

[256] Now, I know that you and I have somewhat different perspective on Chris Christie, but part of my reason for thinking he's not going to debate is because he does not want to be on that stage with Chris Christie.

[257] And I have to say, I wanted to get your take on this.

[258] I mean, I've been a huge, you know, Christy skeptic, but I was willing to listen.

[259] But, man, he is, he is breaking it.

[260] Yeah.

[261] I know you're, you're kind of anti -Christy from the foundation, but from way back.

[262] From way back.

[263] But I'm looking at these clips of him on social media, and I'm going, whoa.

[264] I mean, he has dialed this thing up to a 10 and is just pounding and pounding.

[265] Yeah, I caught him a honey -baked ham and the whole thing.

[266] I mean, I'll, yeah, I'll say two things about Christy, one positive and one, one concerning.

[267] Here's the positive is, thank God he's just doing what he's doing.

[268] And I just, and I think that just is a net comment, it's better to have him out there speaking the truth on Fox News, speaking the truth on that debate stage in two weeks than otherwise.

[269] And I think that he is doing it.

[270] See what you want about Asa, Will Hurd.

[271] You know, I watched, I was at this cattle call.

[272] in Iowa and it's like Asa goes up there and he just you know god love him he just doesn't have it right he's just not making the case right so it's kind of like what's the point of that you're not going to make the case you put those three in the same camp it's like christie is clearly the one that's making the strongest anti -trump case and there is a value in having that case being made and having some people hear it you know whether he's a convincing messenger i'm a little bit skeptical but it's better the people here than don't here's the thing that worries me a little But so, can he help himself if he is on this stage in two weeks without Trump?

[273] I mean, is he just going to be machine gunning the rest of the field?

[274] And then you get to New Hampshire.

[275] And if we just kind of play this out from a strategic standpoint, I think right now, if you had to put a gun to my head, I'm like, who finishes second in New Hampshire?

[276] It seems like Chris Christie to me. Wow.

[277] And okay, yeah, wow, it's right.

[278] But I lived through this, right?

[279] So now I go back to my John Huntsman experience, right?

[280] We finished third, actually, to Ron Paul, but it was a close third.

[281] It was, I think it was, you know, Mitt was in the 40s and it's like Ron Paul 17, Huntsman, 16, something like that.

[282] I'm going from memory.

[283] The gap might have been a little wider.

[284] But, okay, so let's see that that happens this time, right?

[285] And it's like Trump 40, Christy 19, you know, whoever, DeSantis or Tim Scott or whatever, 14.

[286] It's like, did that help if the purpose of this was to stop Trump?

[287] Did it help for you to take that one fifth of the New Hampshire electorate that kind of like the moderate truth telling guys that I worked for.

[288] I mean, all my guys were from New Hampshire guys, McCain -Hunsman, Jeb.

[289] Yeah, I didn't work for Kasek, but that, you know, that voter that was like a McCain -Hunzman, Kasek or Jeb voter, if you take all of them, but then you don't have anywhere to go after that, you know, did you actually kind of hurt the cause of stopping Trump in the long run?

[290] You know, it's complicated.

[291] And despite my distaste for Christy personally, there are a couple folks over there that still talk to me. And, you know, it does seem like they're aware of that.

[292] So it may, you know, hopefully Christy's a Comacose, guy on Trump, and these concerns I have get fleshed out between now and New Hampshire, but those are the concerns I'd have.

[293] Okay, so let's talk about your big story this week.

[294] You were in Iowa, you were covering them, and I want to hear about this.

[295] But you had a really interesting piece that got a lot of traction in the bulwark about the plan B or plan C, or what are we at for the DeSantis people?

[296] Emergency break glass, I think.

[297] I think it's the emergency break glass.

[298] Remind us what they're thinking is for the long.

[299] game.

[300] Well, I was surprised this was happening.

[301] So I was in, and I'm in Iowa, and it's following around Vivek and DeSantis.

[302] And, well, just as a brief aside, so I did three campaigns in Iowa, and the people from the McCain -Romney era are just off the field.

[303] And I think that's kind of an untold story.

[304] It's just like people that worked on those campaigns.

[305] Like, they just aren't involved in any of these campaigns.

[306] Like most of the, so I was calling all of them doing the, who should I talk to, who should I talk to?

[307] And they would put me to other people who are either younger or a little crazy or whatever, you know, who are still working for some of these campaigns.

[308] And one of those conversations, a DeSantis Superback person was talking at length to me about how, you know, during this reset, they've got to think about, you know, the short term and getting some momentum back, but they also got to consider the long term.

[309] And I was like, what do you mean by that?

[310] And I was like, well, you know, in Iowa, if you get second in Iowa, people are like, he's dead.

[311] But is that really true?

[312] You know, we've got all these legal cases coming out with Trump.

[313] And maybe there's an argument for sticking around and getting seconds.

[314] and thirds and second, and going into the proportional states and amassing delegates.

[315] And we have the money to play the long game in the way that other candidates don't.

[316] And I'm sitting there listening.

[317] And I was like, oh, that's an interesting thought exercise and all that.

[318] And I was like, are you guys like seriously talking about that and having meetings?

[319] I mean, so the long game is you basically, you know, pile up delegates.

[320] And then what is the latest version of this magical thinking that you're there when what unicorn happens?

[321] Yeah.

[322] Okay.

[323] So it's like, step A. get as many delegates as you can, not a majority, right?

[324] Because Trump's going to have the majority.

[325] And this is basically conceding that Trump is going to win the most of these races, right?

[326] So you get as many delegates as you can.

[327] And then step B is that Jack Smith does your dirty work for you.

[328] And we can get into the trial dates and all that.

[329] But if you're looking at these spring dates, you know, and step C is a question mark.

[330] Does Trump decide to get not run?

[331] Because does he cut a deal?

[332] Does he go to jail?

[333] And does he not run for jail?

[334] Magical thing happens.

[335] C is a question mark, but easy.

[336] So it's like, A, we get delegates, B, Jack Smith trials are happening in the spring.

[337] C is a question mark.

[338] D, we have a fight on the convention floor where we want to have as many delegates as possible so that we have, you know, negotiating power, strength, whatever, as we try to figure out who in Milwaukee, you know, is the actual nominee because it can't be the guy in an orange jumpsuit.

[339] I mean, this is just fantastical thinking.

[340] I mean, it'd be great for the Bullwark podcast.

[341] We'd have a lot to talk about.

[342] We could, we'd be doing live streams all day.

[343] I have to say, as these guys shiv each other on the convention floor in Milwaukee, but an open convention.

[344] Wow.

[345] Yeah.

[346] To me, the big takeaway was, A, I mean, it's pretty bleak for DeSantis, if you guys are even gaming this out at this point.

[347] I mean, it's pretty, we haven't even had a debate yet.

[348] We know it's bleat.

[349] It's like, that they would say this.

[350] And I checked, I was like, are you sure I can, okay, like, is this just a thought exercise or can I say that you guys are thinking about this?

[351] He's like, you can say, we're thinking about it.

[352] I was like, okay.

[353] I mean, I just, the whole thing was a gomb smack.

[354] to me. But I will say this, it's not a zero percent chance, right?

[355] I mean, it is crazy and fantastical thinking.

[356] And we can't possibly be this lucky to have a Republican convention fort fight with Donald Trump in jail.

[357] I mean, you know, you pass the champagne if that's happening, but it's not a zero.

[358] The reason why it's not zero, why nothing is zero is because something truly amazing and unprecedented is going to happen next year, right?

[359] I mean, something, I think it was David From who tweeted out that Donald Trump, is on track to be convicted of felonies and to win the nomination maybe in the same month.

[360] So we are in this bizarre moment that anyone who says for sure they know what's going to happen, we don't.

[361] I mean, everybody's making it up as they go along, right?

[362] Yeah, right?

[363] I mean, I think the one thing that we know for sure at this point is that Donald Trump's going to win a lot of states.

[364] Yeah.

[365] But even that, you're looking at this, and you had this in the newsletter today, that Jack Smith, you know, was looking at what was it, January 3rd, I don't have in front of me. January 2nd, yeah, let's go.

[366] Yeah, so Iowa was the 15th, right?

[367] And this D .C. judge seems very amenable.

[368] And, you know, listen to the Thursday podcast, if you want to go in depth on how all that, you know, shakes out from a legal standpoint.

[369] But, like, let's say that happens.

[370] You know, I do think Iowa is probably the place where he's weakest.

[371] And, you know, he's on trial during the caucuses.

[372] And maybe somebody else can sneak out a win there.

[373] And then, okay, then he wins some of these other states.

[374] And he's still on trial.

[375] And then it's like, there's another trial.

[376] looming and he can't go in campaign and there aren't cameras in the courtroom that are just are a lot.

[377] We are very much in our uncharted territory here, I guess.

[378] So I think having complete confidence in predicting anything is foolish.

[379] That said, I guess we can have a lot of confidence in predicting that it's not like Donald Trump's just going to go away, right?

[380] You know what I mean?

[381] It's not like he's going to lose, you know, start finishing in fourth place.

[382] And that is what we know is not happening.

[383] Among the anecdotes that you tell about your trip to Iowa, one that stuck out to me was you went to an event that the DeSantis people had, a kind of a small event, and it turns out not many people were there.

[384] And I think your picture made the drudge report or something like that of, you know, how sparse the crowd was.

[385] It was actually darker than that, Charlie.

[386] I had a moment where I was like, am I the bad guy here?

[387] Because the picture was at the top of the judge report and then also then Trump bleated it.

[388] And I was like, oh, no. I've given aid and comfort to the content, to the enemy.

[389] Tim Miller is now a content provider to Truth Social.

[390] I felt bad about that for about two minutes.

[391] And then I was like, you know who really should feel bad about this is Ron DeSantis' campaign?

[392] I mean, they invited us to, they invited the meeting of this event.

[393] All I did was take a picture.

[394] It's not my fault that only 40 people showed up to your event.

[395] Now, the dazzling detail, though, that you've had was that Ron DeSantis shows up in a five -car motorcade.

[396] Now, this was the downsized, you know?

[397] So he didn't actually take a private deal.

[398] jet in a helicopter there, but this is the trim down, slim down campaign.

[399] This is part of the problem with Ronda Santis.

[400] Ron DeSantis, you know, wanted to do the Bigfoot campaign.

[401] Since we're in the PTSD, sort of reminded me of where Scott Walker was back in 2015, where he was spending money like crazy.

[402] His campaign was run by Rick Wiley.

[403] And their burn rate of money was just staggering.

[404] And I think maybe in part the thinking was, let's look as big and impressive.

[405] We have to look like the frontrunner.

[406] And, of course, he was done by September.

[407] And by the way, Walker family, you know, inner circle, they, to this day, hate Rick Wiley.

[408] I mean, they just think he effed them over, spent all of the money.

[409] He's on the Haley campaign now.

[410] So, you know, the Gryft continues.

[411] Perfect.

[412] Just perfect.

[413] Great job on that pledge.

[414] That's definitely going to move you from three to four percent.

[415] Okay.

[416] So the other dazzling detail that stood out from your account is, you know, Ron DeSantis does his, I mean, look, it feels like an old story now that Ron DeSantis is really kind of bad at this, that he's not that great.

[417] What was interesting was your account of Vivek Ramoswami, who I think is this cycle's, you know, charlatan, fake candidate in many ways.

[418] But he's playing well on the field, isn't he?

[419] They like him.

[420] Yeah, they like him, right?

[421] So this is, I'm not making any moral judgments about Vivek.

[422] He's touching all of the erogenous zone.

[423] He knows how to do this, yeah.

[424] It was a back -to -back event, so I see Desanti.

[425] in the morning.

[426] I go two hours one way from Des Moines, then two hours the other way.

[427] You know, they're both rural kind of areas, but DeSantis's area was actually more, you know, there are more towns around Tema than there are around this place.

[428] Like where I saw Vivek, this place was called Vail.

[429] I'm friends with the old, an old chief of staff of a Republican governor there, and I was asking her about these events, like just getting her sense.

[430] She's like, I didn't know Vail existed.

[431] That's how small it is.

[432] So Vivik is out there in the middle of nowhere.

[433] I mean, he's in BFE.

[434] And his crown is three times as big as Ron's.

[435] His little stump speech is, I mean, a thousand percent more engaging than Dysantuses.

[436] People are into it.

[437] Yeah, they're standing ovations.

[438] There are cheers.

[439] Now, these people are actually going to vote for him?

[440] You know, he's 37.

[441] I think he just turned 38, actually.

[442] He's 37 when I was there.

[443] He's Hindu.

[444] The third question was about being Hindu.

[445] His answer to that was strange credulity a little.

[446] bit.

[447] You know, he kind of, he goes, well, I see us really as all in the same team.

[448] And I, and we believe in one God.

[449] And I believe in Judeo -Christian values.

[450] I'm going, I don't know, if I'm an evangelical, come sitting there listening to that and be like, I don't, I'm not sure that was that convincing him an answer.

[451] They were queasy about Mormons.

[452] Exactly.

[453] Hindu, you know, the elephant god, you know, okay, I have respect for all, all cultures, but I'm just saying.

[454] Talk to me about Vishnu.

[455] I'm sorry.

[456] I don't see that.

[457] Also, his attitudes about pork seem to be problematic.

[458] Yeah, it'll be interesting.

[459] to see how he does at the State Fair this weekend.

[460] So I don't actually think he's necessarily going to win, but his message, which is very Trumpian, you know, very nationalist, hostile to Ukraine, you know, hostile to elite culture in every sense.

[461] It was hitting the erogenous zones, as you said.

[462] And if he was a 44 -year -old evangelical, I'd be looking at that and going, this guy is clearly in second.

[463] He would have dusted DeSantis by now.

[464] But, you know, because of his drawback, you know, who knows if he'll be able to win people over.

[465] But the other interesting element to this, which shows really this kind of coming back to our first question about why this isn't going away in the deep rot here, is that the Vivek event, the people I talked to, many of them were, they liked Trump.

[466] There was one guy in particular who started talking to me about how he thinks Trump is still in charge of the nukes in the military.

[467] And then he says to me, and I was like, oh, okay, interesting.

[468] So you're going to be with Trump then.

[469] But let's say Trump can't run or something.

[470] Who would you be second?

[471] And he thinks about it while.

[472] He's like, I don't know, maybe this guy.

[473] I went talk to the Vivek staff, and I was like, good news, the guy that thinks Trump is still in charge of the military, you're number two for him.

[474] So you can mark him down on your caucus count.

[475] But, you know, there were a lot of Trumpy people there.

[476] And the DeSantis, that wasn't true, right?

[477] Like, it was a lot of more kind of establishment, older kind of Republican types, Chuck Grassley types, people that are playing the field.

[478] That, A, that's got to be a concern for DeSantis.

[479] But B, it sort of shows that like those, those folks aren't, they're not going to snap back, right?

[480] Maybe Vivek isn't the next, you know, the second coming or whatever, but somebody that can offer them, you know, that nationalist grievance mongering is really going to be it.

[481] So what do you think is going on with Mike Pence?

[482] I was, I just retweeted something.

[483] I think it was from David French who had a soundbite of Mike Pence being heckled by some supermaga people who were telling him, you know, you're a traitor.

[484] Why did you, you know, why did you betray the country, you know on on January 6th and and Pence's answers I don't know it sounded pretty good and can you know is this a new Mike Pence is this the temporary Mike Pence uh is this Mike Pence's moment what the hell I mean I he look this guy's not going to get the nomination I mean this is this is not the party that's going to you know go for the guy that defied Donald Trump but what did your take on Mike Pence because I mean he's been a weak hit for for years and now suddenly it's like dude yeah I think it's just happening more than we think even There's a video from the fair.

[485] That's what you're talking about sharing.

[486] It's worth noting that many people push back.

[487] Now, this isn't a Republican event.

[488] It's at the state fair.

[489] So you have a mixed crowd.

[490] There's some Democrats there.

[491] But that's a good sign.

[492] Just while we're talking positive signs, you know, this is still a minority of, unfortunately, it's a majority of the Republican Party.

[493] Somebody stood up and said, you should shut your mouth or something like that.

[494] Yeah, yeah.

[495] So that's good.

[496] That's happened.

[497] There's still some Iowa nice out there.

[498] You know, it's not a total dark wasteland.

[499] But I think this is happening in a lot.

[500] That woman that I mentioned in the, In the lead in, Donna was her name who said she'd been there in January 6th, and she was disappointed that the other candidates weren't sticking by Trump, even, as we're on this podcast going, why don't these guys have balls?

[501] Donna's out there going, why are they sucking up to a martyr?

[502] Anyway, but she said that she told me a little anecdote about how she yelled at Mike Pence recently at an event.

[503] So I think he gets yelled at kind of a lot, basically, is what I'm saying.

[504] You do get on the campaign trail, having been on a bunch of losing campaigns, you get a sense of freedom, like once you kind of accept your likely fate.

[505] That's what I was wondering.

[506] Yeah.

[507] I thought that Jeb's, like, best days of his campaign were the very first days.

[508] I thought we had a couple of really good days, and then he gets overshadowed by Trump, and it's like, it's a free fall for a while.

[509] But around Christmas, when people aren't paying attention, and the only thing people remember is please clap, and that's fine.

[510] Whatever, it is what it is.

[511] But he had some very, like, convicted moments, right?

[512] Where, you know, that people aren't going to remember.

[513] Nobody's really going to remember these Mike Pence moments probably either.

[514] But, like, where he was able to just say what he really fucking thought, you know, about Trump and where, you know, I think that he made the moral argument.

[515] And I think that that's probably happening to Pence here.

[516] Yeah, yeah, that makes sense.

[517] Because he does feel more comfortable in his skin, which is something that I never would have said about Mike Pence before.

[518] Like right now.

[519] He's kind of awkwardly.

[520] He's, like, naturally awkwardly comfortable.

[521] If that makes sense, he's not the most natural person, but it's like, it's like he's owning his awkwardness.

[522] Did you see the little exchange between him and his wife, or his wife's like, I want to go see the bunnies?

[523] And he's like, yeah, I don't think I'm going to do that.

[524] It was kind of like, I was kind of frank and comfortable.

[525] I don't know.

[526] There was something about it where he said no to mother.

[527] He said no to mother.

[528] It's like, he's really, you know, yeah, you can stand up to a pro deserable when he says no to mother, you know that Mike Pence is really fuel in his oats.

[529] It is interesting that you put it that way because that was kind of my reaction to watching Chris Christie, that he's becoming more and more comfortable with this.

[530] He's like, this is what I'm doing.

[531] I don't need to overthink it.

[532] In politics, obviously, there comes that moment like, oh, my God, I could win.

[533] It might be close.

[534] I better watch what I say, right?

[535] And you have to trim your sales.

[536] And so that's when you will inevitably become tight and you will become programmed and you stick to your talking points.

[537] At a certain point, you go, eff it, I'm laying it out.

[538] And there is that feeling of liberation.

[539] It's the Hillary crying.

[540] It's Hillary crying in New Hampshire.

[541] It got her comeback after Obama beat her in Iowa.

[542] That feeling of liberation is there for sure.

[543] Okay, small trigger warning for everybody here because, no, I need to have an earnest moment.

[544] Oh, okay, great.

[545] We sort of avoided that so far in the podcast, you know, the really serious, you know, okay, so next week, we're going to have these indictments coming down from Georgia.

[546] Obviously, that will be the big story of the week.

[547] Fannie Willis is going to come down with multiple, maybe racketeering charges, might not just be Trump, it might be the, you know, a whole bunch of co -conspirators.

[548] But here's the deep breath.

[549] Here's the earnest moment.

[550] The level of the vitriol that is now being aimed at the prosecutors, the judges, and against Fannie Willis from Trump and Trump world is in many ways just another page from his playbook.

[551] But the intensity, The intensity and the vileness of the attacks are ramping up.

[552] And what's interesting about this, and again, interesting is a weasel word.

[553] What is alarming about all of this is that the threat of violence has been real and growing for some time.

[554] But now it feels like we are coming to a real ignition point.

[555] So this week we had that confrontation in Utah.

[556] were a guy who'd spent way too much time online and had lots of guns.

[557] Did you see this dude's Facebook page?

[558] Yes, I did.

[559] And very clearly he was tracking anyone who was involved in opposition to Donald Trump or into the cases against Donald Trump, Alvin Bragg, all of those people, he was basically breathing threats and whether he would have acted on it, we don't know, but the FBI had no choice other than to check him out and leaving that aside.

[560] But just a reminder, there are millions of people out there with guns who are being destabilized, who are being ginned up by this rhetoric.

[561] And in a normal rational world, there would be voices out there saying, this is the time when we need to be sober, when we need to be careful, we need to be restrained.

[562] None of that is happening.

[563] So what do we have, Donald Trump, who has decided that a climate of chaos, violence, and fear, work for him.

[564] He's okay with that.

[565] And so he's going to be stoking it.

[566] Now, down in Georgia, they're actually running ads attacking Fannie Willis.

[567] I'm not carrying any briefer, but he's actually now, it's one thing for Donald Trump to say that, you know, these racist prosecutors, by which he means they're black.

[568] So he's going to try to weaponize the race of Albin Bragg and Fonnie Willis because that's what he does.

[569] But he's gone one step beyond that.

[570] The Fonnie Willis had an affair with a gang leader.

[571] she was prosecuting.

[572] Now, that's like she's not just, you know, a black woman.

[573] She's a black woman.

[574] And you know what he's saying here.

[575] Yeah.

[576] Prostitute or whatever.

[577] Yeah.

[578] Yeah, and it was like a fair at the drug dealer or something, gang member.

[579] I forget the quote.

[580] So where are we going on all of this?

[581] And we're still only in August.

[582] What is the level going to be at in January, in February, in net, what is it going to be like next summer?

[583] And you know that, I mean, we've gone from spending years worried about the threat of, you know, international terrorism, Islamic terror, radical Islamic terrorism.

[584] And now the real threat is us, is domestic terrorism being stoked by the former president of the United States.

[585] And I'm sorry, this is where I become earnestly.

[586] The alarm bells ought to be ringing off the charts.

[587] And so we talk about what's going to happen next year.

[588] one of the things that we need to factor in is just the contingency of an act of violence because again it doesn't take 10 million people with guns it just takes a handful and we don't know what's going to happen but I think that there's that danger that we become so numb to what Donald Trump is doing the threats, the attempt to intimidate and obstruct and everything that we think well okay this is same old same old when in fact no the context is more dangerous the language is more dangerous And I don't know where we're going here, but the Fannie Willis attack feels like we're in kind of new territory, maybe not new territory.

[589] And I don't know about you, Tim, but I see no pushback from any of his opponents or Republicans saying, hey, guys, whatever you think about this, this is not the moment to be engaging in this kind of reckless behavior.

[590] Yeah, this is why I was going in some ways where it's worse than the rhetoric, yeah, but it's also worse in that there's no dissenting voices in MAGA.

[591] world and conservative media world because I think back so before January 6th the most heightened fear I had for violence was kind of late in that primary season in 2016 when Trump was doing the rallies when he was go when he was like yeah fuck him up yeah I remember he had a period of time we're at the rallies where he's encouraging people in the crowd to hit protesters and you're saying I'll pay for your legal bills and right like it was like Trump's always Trump but but his you know his redwick waxes and wing yeah you know and so that was a period where his violent rhetoric was the most he did.

[592] And at that time, you had, you know, his opponents, Marco and Ted Cruz and other people within the Republican Party saying, this is uncalled for, you know, we can't have this kind of rhetoric.

[593] Some events were canceled.

[594] You don't see that at all to your point now.

[595] There is nobody.

[596] So if there's been one example, show it, I'd love to give anybody credit, but I don't see any example anywhere in conservative media world and Republican world, you know, beyond the Chris Christie's limits.

[597] Yeah.

[598] People saying, we have to stop this.

[599] Like, this is going to lead to something dangerous.

[600] And, you know, they just want to pretend as if it doesn't exist.

[601] And I go back to that Iowa bar and I was in that cattle call.

[602] And it made me feel very uneasy because everybody that goes on stage, all of these Republican candidates, everybody that talked, they just pretended like it all wasn't happening.

[603] Like they didn't talk about the indictments.

[604] They didn't talk about anything.

[605] And meanwhile, you had, you know, some people in the room liked that.

[606] And then you had these, like, kind of agitated Trump fans that are like, why aren't you fighting for my person?

[607] They're at, you know, like those people need to be kind of talked off the ledge.

[608] And nobody's doing that.

[609] Like, they're either being stoked by Trump himself and by his most noxious allies.

[610] Or, you know, there's another class of people that are just putting their head in their sand, like ostriches and hoping that this all gets better sometime with some convention, Florida fight and Milwaukee.

[611] You know, this is kind of fantasy talk.

[612] And so that part, to me, I think when you combine just the heightened intensity of the drama around actually convicting a former president and how people would respond to that.

[613] And you saw the interview von Hillier did on NBC with somebody who was like civil war calling for civil war.

[614] So people's emotions.

[615] Because obviously we can't live together if we do this.

[616] Yeah, right.

[617] So the news will be heightened.

[618] The emotions will be heightened.

[619] Donald Trump's rhetoric is heightened.

[620] The pushback is non -existent.

[621] and, you know, I think a lot of national security experts and ethnic terrorism experts said the thing about January 6th was that it culminated in a moment, right?

[622] Like to have real violence, you know, you have your one -off people.

[623] There's something to be scared of.

[624] But then you have your real violence is when it culminates in a moment.

[625] We're going to have a lot of those potential moments coming up next year.

[626] I think it's exactly.

[627] And so all of that is very unbelievably concerning.

[628] The only one last thing, the only good positive thing that I think we do have going for them is the way the DOJ has been so tough on the January 6th.

[629] the people organizing the violence, the oath keepers, all that.

[630] I think that has taken some people, some of the people to troublemakers off the field in a way that is making real, real tangible difference.

[631] I think that's the only green shoot here in a situation that, as you bring up, is deeply scary and very alarming.

[632] Well, I agree with you, but the danger does not come from just organized groups.

[633] It can come from these loan actors as well.

[634] You know, and I was thinking back to that period before January 6th, and even some of the danger that, the stuff that you wrote, that I wrote, that we were saying, this is really dangerous, this was really dangerous.

[635] Well, Bill kept saying, I am alarmed, I am alarmed, and yet, in retrospect, we were not alarmed enough.

[636] Bill, was really out there on this.

[637] And I remember having a conversation with Denver Riggelman right before January 6th, you know, and he had done some of this work, and he was saying, look, all the signals are, this is going to be really bad.

[638] This is going to be bad.

[639] And he laid out the kinds of things that were happening that would lead to violence.

[640] He called the shot, and then it happens.

[641] And people go, oh, my God, God, this, we are now in a volatile situation.

[642] Things are very, very fragile.

[643] But to repeat a theme from earlier in the podcast, we've learned absolutely nothing from that.

[644] Absolutely nothing.

[645] We've seen how people have retconed what happened on January 6th, downplayed it, rationalized it, even now kind of supporting it.

[646] I mean, there's a real strain of Trumpian rhetoric.

[647] And by that, I mean, coming from him directly, that characterizes, you know, that 1776, we're going to take down the government as a virtue, as a good thing.

[648] So what happened in Utah ought to be a reminder.

[649] I think people have already forgotten about it of how bad things can be.

[650] So what I'm specifically saying is that we're gaming out 24.

[651] What we haven't gained out is what happens if there are assassinations?

[652] What happens if you have witnesses who are killed?

[653] What happens if prosecutors are attacked?

[654] What happens if judges are attacked.

[655] What happens then?

[656] Fair enough, if you want to accuse me of Trump derangement syndrome or of being alarmist, I am alarmed.

[657] And you go back again to that pre -January 6th, you know, where Bill kept saying, I am alarmed, I am alarmed.

[658] And now when we know all the things that were going on, we realized that that alarm was completely justifiable.

[659] I mean, it was way worse, much more serious, much more of a close run thing than I think we believed at the time.

[660] And we were pretty ginned up on it.

[661] We were pretty jinned up.

[662] but it ended up being worse than many of us thought.

[663] And you have the other camp, which is the, you know, to beat the dead horse on not learning from anything we have the what's the downside for humoring him crowd.

[664] And you remember that the worst background quote in history.

[665] What's the downside for humoring him for a few months?

[666] Here they are.

[667] They're still doing it.

[668] They're still humoring him.

[669] You know, even the people that are running against him are still humoring him.

[670] And I just, it's pretty sick, I think, that you have these people in roles of responsibility.

[671] you know, whether that be McCarthy or McConnell or whether that be the people at Fox who just are making the same damn mistakes they made before January 6th.

[672] And I think that, you know, you can just see, hopefully this doesn't happen, but, you know, you can just see into the future, which is, you know, one of these terrible events that you laid out occurs, you know, they express their concern and say the right thing for 48 hours.

[673] And then, you know, they go back into their bunker as Donald Trump keeps winning primaries and caucuses.

[674] And there's not much, I think, that we can do to kind of stop that inevitability, except for what's happening to the justice system.

[675] So we don't have time to get into some of the other things I wanted to talk about.

[676] So let's make a note to talk about this over the next couple of weeks.

[677] Because I think that over the last month, I think there's a growing recognition that even though Republicans have been completely full of shit about some of the allegations they've made about Hunter Biden, that in fact, the Hunter Biden thing is a problem.

[678] That's a cliffhanger for next Friday.

[679] I mean, this is where holding two thoughts on your head at the same time is one of those difficult things in this concurrent environment that, you know, there's no evidence that ties Joe Biden to any, any, you know, breaking of the law, any of that stuff.

[680] A lot of the allegations that have been made have been completely baseless.

[681] And yet, there is a cloud of sleaze that I think is a mistake to ignore.

[682] Can we just like noodle this out?

[683] I talked to Ron Philip Kowski.

[684] Yeah, we can noodle on it.

[685] People can go listen to Ron.

[686] I got to him a couple Sundays ago on the Sunday next level interview, and he was good on this because he's following all this stuff as closely as anybody and all the accusations in Maga World.

[687] And his advice is in short, basically, that the Democrats need to be better about distancing from Hunter because even if there's no evidence of what happened with Joe, of Joe doing anything, it is pretty gross and there's some political advantage to distancing.

[688] So anyway, we can get into it deeper another time.

[689] But Ryan had some good thoughts on that that sound pretty aligned with what you're saying.

[690] Well, I think, and Jill Lawrence had a piece in the bulletwork about all of this.

[691] And I think, look, are there any crimes?

[692] Is there anything impeachable?

[693] Absolutely not.

[694] But that doesn't mean that it's not gross.

[695] And I think that's part of the political reality.

[696] And the other reason is because Republicans have this deep, deep, deep, psychological, cultural, political reason to talk about Hunter, you know, as all.

[697] all of the criminality of Donald Trump, you know, becomes impossible to ignore.

[698] I mean, what do they want to do?

[699] They want to talk about the criminality of Donald Trump, or do they want to engage in what aboutism and the what aboutism of the moment?

[700] And for the next year is going to be Hunter Biden.

[701] So you've seen a lot of Jared Kushner coverage from that crowd?

[702] I don't know.

[703] The Saudi, somebody, I thought this for Cliffhanger.

[704] Somebody left me with a dark prediction for next year, which was, what if Trump just flees to Saudi?

[705] It's like, you're worried about Hunter Biden and his shitty and his little small -vall bullshit corruption deals.

[706] And here we got Jared Kushner bringing in a half -billy from the Saudis.

[707] So, anyway.

[708] Okay, so this is what I really like that Christy has done.

[709] Because Christy, without any varnish, you know, completely on varnish, just saying, he was good about us.

[710] You're reminding people about Jared Kushner working in the White House, then leaving the White House and doing a billion -dollar deal with the people he had been working with.

[711] I mean, come on, people.

[712] You can't show anything remotely like that with the Bidens.

[713] But outside of Chris Christie, nobody's really played that Jared Kushner card, which is amazing.

[714] Tim Miller, great to have you back on.

[715] We will continue this conversation soon.

[716] Sounds good, brother.

[717] Talk to you all soon.

[718] Thank you all for listening to the weekend Bullwark podcast.

[719] I'm Charlie Sykes.

[720] We will be back next week, and we will do this all over again.

[721] The Bullwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper, an engineer, and edited by Jason Brown.