Is The Era Of ‘Macho Man’ Politics Here?
Congress has kept relatively quiet during the first month of President Donald Trump's second term, but in the coming weeks it will be thrust into the spotlight. Amidst intraparty Republican debate over tax and spending cuts, Trump will deliver an address to Congress on Tuesday night. Legislators will also be tasked with funding the government by March 14 or face a shutdown. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Rachael Bade and Geoffrey Skelley about what to expect from congressional negotiations. They also ask whether a new poll on attitudes around gender norms is a good or bad use of polling. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
No, It's Not Getting More Dangerous To Fly
It has been a difficult month for Americans afraid of flying. On Jan. 29, an American Airlines jet collided with a Black Hawk helicopter over the Potomac River, killing 67 people. It was the first major U.S. commercial airline crash in more than 15 years and in the weeks since, there has been coverage of more plane crashes, accidents and near misses across the country. If headlines like these give you anxiety, you are not alone. According to polling from the AP, the share of Americans who say flying is somewhat or very unsafe has increased, from 12 percent a year ago to 20 percent this month. And that poll found something else. The decrease in trust Americans have in flying is not spread evenly across partisan groups. Republicans’ feelings about air travel remain virtually unchanged from 12 months ago, while trust has fallen among Democrats and independents. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen discusses the data with CNN Senior Data Reporter and 538 alumnus himself Harry Enten. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Democrats Aren't Popular. What Should They Do About It?
The Democratic Party has reached at least a 15-year low in the public’s view, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. Fifty-seven percent of registered voters have an unfavorable view of the party, while that’s just 45 percent for the Republican Party. And more Democrats than not have an unfavorable opinion of their own members of Congress. Some Democrats say the party isn't doing enough to counter President Donald Trump, but when it comes to how the party should change, there doesn't seem to be clear agreement. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Washington Post data scientist Lenny Bronner and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about how parties usually handle being in the political wilderness and how the party might evolve. They also discuss the results of Sunday's election in Germany. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Trump's Theory Of Presidential Power
In honor of Presidents’ Day, in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast Galen speaks with constitutional law professor Peter Shane about presidential power and its limits during President Trump's second term. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
A Valentine? In This Romantic Recession?
On this Valentine’s Day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen is joined by Daniel Cox and Kelsey Eyre Hammond of the Survey Center on American Life. They discuss the troubled state of American dating life and how the country fell into a “romantic recession.” Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
How Data Became A Political Football
In this post-Super Bowl edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew kicks things off with some prop bets and a look at the rapid rise of sports gambling. Then they dig into the offlining of key government datasets under President Donald Trump and why it matters for more than just data nerds. Finally, they analyze the high rate of Republican turnover in a Congress that’s becoming increasingly aligned with Trump. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The View From Europe
In the post-war world order, the United States and Europe have been among the closest of allies. What happens if President Donald Trump upends that equation? Jeanna Smialek, Brussels bureau chief for The New York Times, joins the show to break down the view from Europe. They take a look at how European leaders are reacting to the early days of Trump’s second term, the strategies EU nations are using in response to Trump's abrasive rhetoric, and how a tariff fight might play out across the European economy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Will Tariffs End Trump’s Honeymoon?
After months of promising to impose tariffs on U.S. trading partners, President Donald Trump has made good on his word. On Friday, he announced 10 percent tariffs on China and 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, though the latter has been delayed by a month. Today on the 538 Politics podcast, the crew breaks down these tariff orders and how Americans feel about them. They also dive into Trump’s approval rating using 538’s new tracker and discuss how Democrats are preparing for a future counteroffensive. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Trump’s Federal Funding Fiasco
This week, the Trump administration oversaw a federal funding fiasco. The Office of Management and Budget issued a memo attacking DEI programs and putting trillions in government funding at risk. States sued, and the administration backtracked —rescinding the memo but keeping the underlying order intact. As this unfolds, we ask: How much power does Trump’s administration actually have to withhold funding? Matt Glassman, senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, joins the podcast to discuss impoundment, executive power and the legal battles ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
What Americans Think About Trump's Plans
President Donald Trump begins his second term as one of the least popular presidents in modern polling history. Yet, many of his policies — such as those surrounding DEI programs and immigration — are more popular than ever. What do Americans want from Trump’s second term? The crew delves into this question, exploring thermostatic public opinion, Trump’s strategy of testing the waters on key issues and the nuances of question wording. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Will Trump's Agenda Make It Through Congress?
The first few days of President Donald Trump’s second term have featured an avalanche of executive orders. But Trump’s authority as commander-in-chief will only take his agenda so far. His most ambitious goals must pass through Congress, where Republicans control both chambers, albeit by slim margins. On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen is joined by Rachael Bade, Politico’s Capitol Hill bureau chief and senior Washington columnist. They discuss congressional Republicans’ plans for the coming months, what they’re saying behind closed doors and what, if anything, Democrats plan to do to resist Trump’s agenda. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The Highs and Lows of Biden’s Presidency
With just days remaining in President Joe Biden’s term, the crew reflects on the past four years and tries to determine how this administration will be remembered. What were the high points, the low points and the most notable moments? They discuss Biden’s industrial policymaking, the vaccine rollout, inflation and the tumultuous summer of 2024. And they cover the destructive wildfires currently impacting Los Angeles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
How Serious Is Trump About Greenland?
With one week remaining before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, the nation is orienting itself towards his policy goals. Will they include the addition of new American territory? On this episode of the podcast, the crew breaks down Trump’s recent comments about Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal. They also unpack how they are thinking about these types of comments from Trump — should they be taken literally, seriously or both? And, the crew discusses former President Jimmy Carter’s life and legacy. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Campaign Throwback: 'The Beer Question'
This is the third installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our third installment: "the beer question." After the 2000 and 2004 elections, political observers remarked that Republican George W. Bush defeated his Democratic opponents in part because he was the candidate who voters would rather "have a beer with." The phrase quickly became a cliche for evaluating a candidate's likability or relatability. But is it really how voters choose their presidents? This episode originally aired in May 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
What Will The Politics of 2025 Look Like?
What’s on the horizon for American politics in 2025? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the team dives into what lies ahead. They start with Washington, analyzing President-elect Donald Trump’s first 100 days and the challenges Republicans face with their slim congressional majority. Next, they explore how public opinion on critical issues like the economy and immigration could evolve with Trump back in office. Finally, the crew turns to 2025’s pivotal electoral races, breaking down what’s at stake in the year to come. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'
This is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Republican Bob Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct? This episode originally aired in May. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Campaign Throwback: 'The Economy, Stupid'
This is the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. Our first installment: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It's a trope that dates back to Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. Clinton's chief strategist at the time, James Carville, had three main messages for his staff to remember: 1) Change vs. more of the same 2) The economy, stupid, and 3) Don't forget about healthcare. The second message was memorialized in a 1993 documentary about the Clinton campaign called "The War Room," and has taken on a life of its own in the field of election analysis. But is it accurate? This episode originally aired in May. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
What We're Putting In Our 2024 Time Capsule
What would you save to remember 2024 in politics? In the second part of our end-of-year series on the 538 Politics podcast, the crew builds a time capsule to capture the political essence of the year. From a Dean Phillips bumper sticker to President-elect Donald Trump’s 16-page indictment and the 538 polling average, they debate what deserves to be preserved. Plus, a discussion on the looming government shutdown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Our 2024 Superlatives
How do you measure a year? In votes cast? Money spent? Or in “seasons of love”? On this end-of-2024 installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tries to find out by making a yearbook and assigning superlatives. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Campaign Throwback: 'The Beer Question'
This is the third installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our third installment: "the beer question." After the 2000 and 2004 elections, political observers remarked that Republican George W. Bush defeated his Democratic opponents in part because he was the candidate who voters would rather "have a beer with." The phrase quickly became a cliche for evaluating a candidate's likability or relatability. But is it really how voters choose their presidents? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'
This is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Campaign Throwback: 'The Economy, Stupid'
This is the first installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today. Our first installment: “It’s the economy, stupid.” It's a trope that dates back to Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. Clinton's chief strategist at the time, James Carville, had three main messages for his staff to remember: 1) Change vs. more of the same 2) The economy, stupid, and 3) Don't forget about healthcare. The second message was memorialized in a 1993 documentary about the Clinton campaign called "The War Room," and has taken on a life of its own in the field of election analysis. But is it accurate? https://surfshark.deals/FIVE38 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices