February Risers & Fallers w/Vlad Sedler of FTN

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[8] Welcome to Rates and Barrels.

[9] It is Friday, February 28th, last day of February.

[10] We made it.

[11] You're in the cold parts of this world.

[12] It is slowly but surely getting warmer.

[13] Derek Van Riper here with Vlad Sedler.

[14] We have our good buddy Eno Saris on assignment today.

[15] I can't speak to exactly what he's doing, although Eno might be communicating things about that.

[16] Thank you so much, GVR.

[17] It's a pleasure to join you and to see you, an old friend who...

[18] I've known and have been at industry events with and drafted with and against for probably over a decade, maybe even 12 years now.

[19] It's probably even more, yeah.

[20] I saw something the other day.

[21] I was like, this is 15 years old.

[22] I definitely remember everything about that.

[23] So a sign that we are definitely getting older.

[24] One thing that's kind of nice about getting older is that we have more things to do.

[25] We have the Discord.

[26] You can join the Rates and Barrels Discord.

[27] Jump in there.

[28] Have some conversations about draft strategy.

[29] Got questions about this episode.

[30] You can send them in there.

[31] You get questions for a future episode.

[32] You can throw those in the Mailbag channel.

[33] But the main focus today is going to be some February risers and fallers.

[34] We're going to look a lot at NFPC ADP.

[35] talk about some of the players that are moving up, some that have slipped, try to figure out where we can find values, and ask the...

[36] age -old draft season question of how much is too much when it comes to a rising price on a player that the market really seems to like.

[37] So that's going to be the main theme of today's show.

[38] We'll have some other strategy topics blended into the show as well.

[39] And as we do on most shows, we've got some news to pass along real quick before we get started.

[40] I saw Andrew Benintendi out four to six weeks with a non -displaced fracture in his hand.

[41] He's going to try to make opening day, but that's going to be really close on the short end of that timetable.

[42] I think I just...

[43] Let's look at Benintendi as a really oatmeal -y player, Vlad.

[44] Just a high -volume guy that actually had a pretty good second half for the White Sox last year, but the quality of that lineup is so bad that even everyday playing time is going to probably keep Benintendi in the range of most 15 -team leagues.

[45] Even a 12 -team league, he looks more like a streamer to me than somebody you'd want to rely on as your last outfielder.

[46] Yeah, he was already a borderline dicey guy in 15 teamers.

[47] I think one of those, if you've taken a lot of risks throughout your draft and you do just want some vanilla, just an outfielder that when they have some good matchups you could use.

[48] But obviously this changes that.

[49] For me personally, he falls out of my top 500.

[50] And you're right.

[51] I mean, you're already kind of working against the grain.

[52] somebody that is on the White Sox, on an offense where quite literally all the goodness and happiness that they might have on day one is going to just be sucked out slowly over the course of the season.

[53] It's going to impact them all on a real -life level and fantasy level.

[54] I still think the main White Sox image just burned into my brain from 2024 was Miguel Vargas throughout the second half of the season after he got traded there by the Dodgers.

[55] Just sitting there like he was miserable.

[56] Getting playing time, but just miserable because it was such a horrible rebuilding year for the White Sox.

[57] By the end of the year, I think there will be more watchables that bring up some prospects.

[58] But yeah, I think the first half of the season is going to be kind of brutal for the White Sox.

[59] They kind of trot through a lineup full of castoffs and veterans to begin the season.

[60] Did get some news on Zach Netto.

[61] He should make his season debut in April.

[62] A little more information than the Angels gave us before.

[63] Vlad, this has been weird.

[64] I've been bugging our writer, Sam Blum.

[65] He covers the Angels for us at The Athletic.

[66] And I keep asking him, like, have they ever said what specifically was fixed in Neto's shoulder?

[67] You know, was it a labrum?

[68] Was it a capsule?

[69] What was it?

[70] And they have been...

[71] completely quiet about the details of that surgery.

[72] So we're sort of left to guess based on the timetable.

[73] And if he is in fact back in April, then it's probably not a labrum.

[74] But nevertheless, it's shoulder surgery that cost him months during the offseason and probably a month of the regular season.

[75] So even with the news that he's going to debut in April, I don't know if I'm any more interested in him because I'm not sure Neto right out of the gates is going to be the player he was throughout last season.

[76] I loved him back in early November before the news of the surgery dropped.

[77] I thought he was actually one of the more undervalued players in the early rounds, given that power -speed combo, but he's still kind of an avoid for me just because of the uncertainty about who he's going to be upon returning.

[78] Yeah, last year he was a great value.

[79] This year he has been a full fade.

[80] In fact, in my rankings, I've had him so far as 75.

[81] I mean, that's five full rounds and a 15 -teamer.

[82] below his actual draft price.

[83] And that is partially because we were in a season of mostly early drafts were draft and holds and just didn't see it being worth it.

[84] And also...

[85] We have to be a little bit more pessimistic when it comes to injuries.

[86] I know 10 years ago, I was a lot different.

[87] Like, oh, he's coming back in April.

[88] Great.

[89] Guys, they need those spring training reps. They need to get their flow going and get those plate appearances and get out on the field.

[90] And so he's been behind the eight ball this whole time.

[91] It is promising that they're seeing April.

[92] For all we know, it could be May or it could be, you know, maybe he's back in April, but actually productive in May. could be June.

[93] He could have a setback.

[94] There are so many issues, yet there are also so many players in the 200s, like in the ranges where he goes, like late hundreds to choose from.

[95] So why am I going to take somebody who's already kind of behind everybody?

[96] And then I'm just, I'm paying max value for what likely isn't going to be a profit.

[97] Yeah, Netto's really kind of settled into that pick 190 range over the last three months or so since that injury news dropped in November.

[98] Like you, I've been staying away so far, and I'm not really inspired by the cast of characters they're trying to use to replace him in the short term.

[99] Either Tim Anderson's getting a look this spring, Kevin Newman.

[100] I have no interest in investing in the Angels shortstop situation for 2025.

[101] The last news item for today I think is maybe a little more interesting.

[102] Haesung Kim has a completely...

[103] revamped swing.

[104] And I thought it was interesting when the Dodgers signed him in the first place because it didn't seem like there was that much league -wide interest in Kim, or at least at the level of which the Dodgers were comfortable paying for him.

[105] There's been some reports recently he might open the year in the minors.

[106] Having a completely revamped swing sort of explains that if he's not that comfortable with it.

[107] There was a report from Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic saying that Kim was saying he's like at 20 % to 30 % of where he wants to be with his new swing, which is not necessarily what you want if you're going to face major league pitching for the first time.

[108] So I'm just curious what you're doing with Kim and how you see him.

[109] him fitting into the Dodgers playing time picture where there could be some pretty significant winners for early season playing time if Kim in fact does go down to the minors.

[110] I've been buying on Kim in deeper leagues.

[111] And of course, we're talking 15 teamers.

[112] I think with 12 teamers, he's really on the cusp there.

[113] I don't think you're going to see him over the next couple of weeks being drafted in a lot of 12 teamers.

[114] But I am a big fan.

[115] A lot of things I read on Twitter, especially because he is already off to a little bit of a slow start and partially because of this and the minor league conversation.

[116] it's impacting his price.

[117] Like people are out.

[118] And this is a guy that is a, you know, 300 hitter overseas.

[119] Sure.

[120] If you even, you know, you say that's like a 280 guy here, maybe even less.

[121] This is an elite contact guy who just got out here.

[122] He's going to be around the best of the best and he is going to learn and figure it out.

[123] He's amazing defensively and he can hit.

[124] and he can play all over the field.

[125] It might be a little bit of a slow start for him.

[126] I think that's expected, but a guy that can platoon with Muncy at third, he can play second, he can hop in the outfield, he can even lead off if you really need it if there happen to be some issues with that team.

[127] It's going to take a little bit of time.

[128] He's going to fit right in.

[129] I think he's going to gel.

[130] I don't think people should expect double -digit homers or anything.

[131] He might only hit a few.

[132] but the value comes from him playing a lot because his defense is what would get him in the lineup, in which case he probably would get helpful batting average, stolen bases because he's fast, and probably some runs as well.

[133] Yeah, and I've started to wonder throughout this winter if because of the new rules in Major League Baseball the last couple of years, the bigger bags, the disengagement rules, if it's become easier to steal bases at the MLB level than it is to steal them in the KBO even, just because it's just...

[134] Different situation now.

[135] In the KBO last year, Kim had...

[136] 30 stolen bases in just 127 games, only caught six times.

[137] He's been pretty efficient throughout his career.

[138] I think his high -water mark was a 46 -steal season back in 2021.

[139] So, yeah, I think you're right.

[140] I think it's average in OBP, speed, maybe run production, or just runs based on where he ends up in that lineup.

[141] Those are probably the categories where he does the most damage for you.

[142] But I was really surprised.

[143] They were completely revamping the swing, and then I wondered if maybe that'll unlock some more power over the course of time as well for Haesong Kim with the Dodgers.

[144] Let's shift the focus to our risers and fallers, though, Vlad.

[145] We were going to focus mostly on hitters to begin.

[146] And I like talking about the core players a little bit because you can see big movers further down the board, right?

[147] Sleeper articles come out, more podcasts come out, people start saying, okay, yeah, we all like Matt Walner.

[148] We all like guys that are going late.

[149] and they jump up four, five, six rounds.

[150] That's every draft season.

[151] But seeing the gradual movement of core players and wondering if we should still be buying in at rising prices, I think is a more challenging question to try and answer.

[152] Let's start with Wyatt Langford, a wildly popular player, making a push toward the middle of round three as February comes to a close.

[153] He started draft season going in that pick 50 to 55 range.

[154] Injuries kept him from really having a full shot at going 20 -20 as a rookie, but he was close to that pace.

[155] He doesn't chase.

[156] He's just a prominent spot in a good Rangers lineup.

[157] Makes a lot of hard contact.

[158] Are you in even at the increased price on Wyatt Langford?

[159] Do you think having an ADP in the mid 30s is actually appropriate given the potential ceiling?

[160] As always is the case, it's a matter of roster build and how you're constructing.

[161] And I know that's something we'll discuss today.

[162] And it's always a matter of what.

[163] What is the alternative in how you are sort of mapping out and building your teams?

[164] I do like Wyatt Langford a lot.

[165] I do think that with a third round ADP, obviously there's very little margin for profit because to expect for him to return first round value, I think is tough.

[166] It's possible, but it's tough.

[167] And so, you know, you're kind of at the max point.

[168] The fact that he...

[169] has this little oblique, despite it being minor thing, has slowed down the helium a little bit.

[170] So just even over the last few days, you see some kind of more reasonable prices on him.

[171] Anyone that gets dinged up in spring, I saw an immediate effect with Gunnar Henderson in best balls.

[172] All of a sudden, oh my gosh, he's there in the early second, like let's pounce.

[173] I like Langford a lot and obviously started off slow in the first half and then he was hurt.

[174] And then the second half really started to pick up the pace.

[175] And then the final month of the season, him and Cal rally of the Mariners, they were second in baseball behind Otani in war.

[176] Basically, he had 180 WRC plus over that last month of the season, slashing 300, 386 and 610.

[177] eight homers, bunch of stolen bases.

[178] So that was nice to see.

[179] And now you've got him on a team that is pretty loaded.

[180] You got a lot of maybe 25 % plus strikeout guys.

[181] But I think a key for him would be the health of Corey Seager.

[182] If you've got Seager and Langford there in the middle of that lineup, you know, with a good supporting cast and those two stay healthy all year.

[183] could be very dangerous.

[184] They're going to score a lot of runs.

[185] Wyatt Linkford's, you know, where most systems are projecting his run and RBI might even be low, in fact, based on what is possible.

[186] And we don't even know his ceiling.

[187] It could be a 30 -30 type with a good average and a first -round return.

[188] So anything's possible.

[189] But again, it just depends on how we're building.

[190] Yeah, and I think you're looking at similar position players.

[191] You're looking at Michael Harris and O 'Neal Cruz as the two guys that go there.

[192] I can see people being more comfortable.

[193] with Harris, just because it's a slightly safer profile, less swing and miss than Cruz.

[194] That's kind of similar to Langford, where it's like, oh, he controls the strike zone really well.

[195] I think the difference is Langford walks more than Harris.

[196] And Langford has, like, that extra real -life polish that locks in that higher lineup spot, whereas Harris, I feel like, kind of fluctuates, might hit higher in the order against righties and then have to drop down against lefties, even though his glove keeps him in the lineup.

[197] And, you know, O 'Neill Cruz is just fun.

[198] It's like the what could go right scenario.

[199] I think as long as he's healthy.

[200] O 'Neal Cruz returns third -round value.

[201] I actually do like him at the price, but if I'm looking at this trio, I'm actually pretty excited to come away with any one of them if they're all sitting there in the middle of round three because I think they're easily $20, $25 players with room for a tick more if it all clicks.

[202] Let's talk about Wilson Contreras for a moment.

[203] His jump is kind of obvious.

[204] It happened over the course of draft season.

[205] As soon as the Cardinals announced he was going to move to first base because now there's a chance that Wilson Contreras leads all catcher -eligible players in plate appearances, at least in the range of outcomes, whereas if he was primarily a catcher, based on everything we've seen throughout his entire career, that really wasn't likely at all.

[206] He didn't have that sort of track record of durability for a catcher.

[207] So I think generally, and correct me if I'm wrong, you're not usually an early catcher builder.

[208] You usually don't build that way.

[209] Do you make exceptions?

[210] Does having a guy that can have exceedingly high playing time at the position actually draw you to a situation where you would be more willing to take one of your catchers early?

[211] I'm open to every plan and every idea.

[212] If the player fits, if my valuations justify it based on perhaps like where the player is falling in the draft.

[213] The thing with Wilson Contreras is I absolutely love him.

[214] He is one of my favorite catchers in fantasy.

[215] In fact, I think he could easily be the number one overall catcher.

[216] And there's a huge advantage.

[217] You have a first baseman guy that's going to play first, getting you catcher eligibility.

[218] So it's a bit of a cheat code there.

[219] It's still legit.

[220] He's over 30.

[221] This is a guy that has average exit velocity of 91, 92 miles per hour the last couple of seasons, barrel rates in the 11 to 12 % range.

[222] The team context, I like some of the players.

[223] I don't know.

[224] I don't love the manager.

[225] I don't know how everything's going to shake out there.

[226] And then, of course, he's got this strange injury history, just always something happening.

[227] And it's not all having to do with his position.

[228] It wasn't all just the fact that he was catching that led to some of these injuries.

[229] There is always a little bit of a concern for me. I love Wilson Contreras.

[230] The whole market does, unfortunately.

[231] I was drafting in November.

[232] I grabbed some Wilson Contreras in the 80s, 90s overall before he started rising.

[233] Now, it's really, truly fully priced.

[234] If you're in the 60s, there are good top closers there.

[235] You've got starting pitchers.

[236] There's other ways to go about it.

[237] It does make it a little difficult if you're talking about a fifth -round pick.

[238] in a 15 -teamer, sixth -round pick in a 12 -er, it makes it difficult.

[239] So though I would love to have a lot of Wilson Contreras shares, I don't know if I'll get that.

[240] It might just be something I will have to target in auction.

[241] Yeah, I was going to say, I imagine when it's dollar for dollar, it might be a different approach than when it's a snake draft.

[242] I've described players like this in recent years.

[243] I think Freddie Freeman is another example of something.

[244] I always see myself being more likely to get when it's...

[245] 28 or 30 bucks out of my budget as opposed to the middle of round two like I just I I feel like there's a there's a tension there and it's because you can get multiple second round picks in an auction if that's how you want to build right you can go stars and scrubs or you have more control over everything else you do because it's dollar for dollar instead of pick for pick so I think that's a good way to look at Wilson Contreras it's a good way to look at a lot of players that you might have liked at their previous draft prices and say okay I'm out in round four, even though I was in round seven, but I'll just pay the extra two or three bucks in the auction.

[246] Sometimes they don't go up evenly.

[247] That's sort of the key difference in the two formats.

[248] Let's talk about Jordan Westberg for a bit.

[249] He's up about 23 spots.

[250] He was a fringe top 100 guy when draft season started, now a top 75 pick in February.

[251] And I'm wondering if people came to the collective conclusion that Westberg is clearly an everyday guy.

[252] for the Orioles, because the initial sets of projections I was seeing had less than everyday playing time on Westberg.

[253] And other than the time he missed with injury in the second half of last year, he was effectively an everyday player.

[254] I've seen a lot of different takes on Westberg, just ranging from...

[255] He is what he is.

[256] There's nothing left for him to do to get better.

[257] I've seen some people that are a little more optimistic.

[258] I look at him, and I wonder if, based on what he did as a hitter coming through the Orioles system, if Westberg might be more patient this time around and maybe walk more, even if it costs him some swing and miss. Sometimes you work the count more, you strike out more.

[259] But I almost wonder if he'll get better by...

[260] doing some of the things he did on his way to the big leagues.

[261] He was 80th percentile in barrel rate last year, kept the K rate at 21 .7%, and he was 91st percentile in sprint speed, too.

[262] He didn't steal that many bases.

[263] So I wonder if even just getting on base a little more actually unlocks more bags from Jordan Westberg, and maybe that's one way he adds value in 2025.

[264] Yeah, I mean, he is one of the rising stars on this team.

[265] The problem with the Orioles is they're...

[266] They are absolutely loaded on offense.

[267] I was talking about this the other day.

[268] This is the perfect scenario of a team that's very top -heavy in the offense, and they need to make a trade for a Dylan Cease type of arm.

[269] And they're just, for even me, doing playing time projections, Baltimore is the team I've spent more time than ever because it's impossible to figure out because then you've got no at -bats for Kobe Mayo.

[270] What about Heston Kirstad?

[271] Then they signed Ramon Lariano for five mil.

[272] He needs to get some short side platoon at bats.

[273] What do you do with Gary Sanchez?

[274] Is he going to play against lefties?

[275] I mean, there's just so much going on with this team.

[276] I just don't know how it's going to shake out.

[277] What this means is Westbrook needs to be on it.

[278] Like he can't slip even at all because this is the type of team where.

[279] He could potentially lose playing time if he is scuffling or he can potentially get pulled into a platoon.

[280] So I see a lot of movement with the offense, the way that it's currently constructed.

[281] You mentioned his stat cast metrics last season, the barrel rate, just the plate discipline.

[282] He looks the part.

[283] It looks really, really solid.

[284] You're getting second and third base eligibility in most formats where he's going to hit in the lineup, I think is still up for debate.

[285] But he is starting to get like fully priced to me. Like for me, I, I somehow don't understand why he's going in the seventies when there are, you know, it's all relative, but there are plenty of amazing options that are, that are comparable that are going to three rounds later.

[286] So for me, I just haven't been clicking that Westbrook Westberg button.

[287] Um, it's for me, he's closer value to at around pick a hundred.

[288] And so.

[289] Yeah, it's tough.

[290] He's definitely above, you know, say that the Royce Lewis range.

[291] I think there's obviously a lot of concern with can Royce Lewis play a full season, but it's not, you know, 50, 60 picks greater than Royce Lewis.

[292] Yeah, I do think it's interesting.

[293] I think with the crowd they have, the downside outcomes for a good player are worse than they should be.

[294] I don't think he's going to lose playing time, but he could.

[295] If he plays poorly enough for a long enough stretch, it could cost him a share of his job.

[296] And I think maybe that's the lingering concern, even though there's a lot to still like in this package.

[297] And you're right, the comparable hitters by ADP, they either have longer track records or they seem to have higher ceilings.

[298] I think that's maybe part of the challenge with the inflated price on Jordan Westberg, a guy that I really liked last year, a guy that I liked at the beginning of draft season, but maybe someone who's less likely to end up on my teams now at the top 75 pick price point.

[299] Right next to him is another riser, Junior Caminero.

[300] And I don't think Junior Caminero's done moving up necessarily.

[301] I think there's a world in which we're talking about him as, I don't know, maybe a fourth -round pick once we get to main events at the end of March.

[302] It doesn't seem like it takes much for a top prospect like Caminero in spring to get that last push, to get that last little bit of helium.

[303] We saw him hit the mammoth home run in the Winter League and just...

[304] uncork one of the best celebrations for that home run of the entire year.

[305] So I'm curious where you are in Caminero.

[306] What do you do with prospects in particular, guys that don't have long track records in the big leagues yet who seem to catch even more helium, especially when projections also like him?

[307] You're getting a little bit of what we saw when Vlad Jr. broke through where projection systems spit out numbers and you're going, whoa, that's really aggressive for someone that hasn't spent a lot of time in the big leagues.

[308] What do you do with Camonero?

[309] He's an absolute riser.

[310] I kind of group him and Westbrook together because they don't have a full season of show.

[311] And obviously Camonero is of a much higher prospect status, I guess you could say, or just more expectations on the fantasy side.

[312] I kind of group a lot of times the corner infielders together, the third and first baseman, just kind of the way I look at it.

[313] And for me, I don't see much difference with him over some of the other guys that are going, at this point now, 20, 30, in some cases, 40 picks beyond him.

[314] And I'm talking about Christian Walker, Josh Naylor, Vinny Pascantino, Cody Bellinger, first base and outfield.

[315] Is he really going to produce $5 to $10 more than those guys?

[316] I don't know.

[317] It's a tough bet.

[318] And then if you start creeping into the fourth round, that's tough.

[319] You're betting on just everything absolutely clicking.

[320] There are good things about, obviously, Him himself, I mean, he's obviously going to be a tremendous hitter one day.

[321] Will that be this year?

[322] I don't know.

[323] I think he might still go through some ups and downs.

[324] The ballpark there, the small park, the replica Yankee Stadium, minor league park, I think is good for him.

[325] The lineup is dicey.

[326] I don't think it's necessarily all that great.

[327] And there's some good pitching there.

[328] They'll play a lot of games against ALE's teams.

[329] There's some really good arms there.

[330] I'm fine with him, but I'm not going to end up with a lot of Camonero just because I'm very reticent to follow along with the helium.

[331] I almost like to help set the market price early, and then if it starts getting away from me, I'm not going to go chasing it unless I'm completely convinced on something.

[332] I think the other part of it with Junior Camonero, too, is there's probably not a lot of speed coming.

[333] from him i think he can run a little bit we saw that in the lower levels of the minors i know he had a leg injury last year at triple a that cost him time probably kept him from getting up to the big leagues sooner a year ago as well so maybe that's part of why he wasn't running a lot in 2024 but you you don't have that extra category to bail you out so i think it puts a lot of pressure on the average and the power i do think the park situation with them playing their home games at steinbrenner field has caused a lot of market fluctuations we've seen pretty much All the Rays hitters creep up the board.

[334] All the Rays pitchers have slid down.

[335] We'll talk about the implications of that a little bit later on in today's show.

[336] What are you doing with Matt McClain?

[337] You know, they did trade away Jonathan India.

[338] Then they go out and trade for Gavin Lux.

[339] So still kind of crowded by the same number of infielders floating around.

[340] Probably less faith right now that Novi Marte has a huge role for them based on what happened from him in 2024.

[341] McClain, for those who forgot, had a torn labrum that required surgery last March, and then on his way back had a ribcage injury in August that just kept him off the field until the Arizona Fall League.

[342] All of his appearances this spring have been at second base.

[343] There were some whispers he'd go back and maybe play some center field like he did as a freshman at UCLA.

[344] He's up about 27 spots now.

[345] since the start of draft season.

[346] Is this just a bump because of health?

[347] Is it a bump because people don't have faith in Gavin Lux?

[348] How do you explain it?

[349] And are you interested in Matt McLean at that price, given that we saw a major injury off of a debut that was better than anybody would have expected?

[350] Yeah, I'm very interested.

[351] In fact, I have a high percentage of shares, shares in air quotes, because the terminology in fantasy these days, it's not a stock.

[352] Yeah, I get it.

[353] I guess I'm partially responsible for it because my BDP rankings that come out are one of the earliest ones in November, and I've had him a couple of rounds ahead of his ADP.

[354] For me, this rise, I'm not saying I'm setting the market by any means, but what I'm saying is he was undervalued to begin with, and now that they're seeing him in person, that is having a positive impact because he himself is a good hitter.

[355] He's going to be a 2020 guy.

[356] I think it's a good chance he probably doesn't hurt the average.

[357] The home park he hits is obviously a tremendous place.

[358] And I think he's very undervalued.

[359] Could he get hurt again?

[360] Sure, any player can get hurt again.

[361] I think he's healthy right now.

[362] That's what matters.

[363] And then just, it's not exactly related, but just one other thing I wanted to say about Caminero is his rise, his helium is very psychological.

[364] Because if you remember, when that winter league was playing, That was the first bit of baseball that we saw, and we saw Caminero, a hero, doing that thing.

[365] It's just how do you not instinctively just raise him and be like, I want that guy on my fantasy team.

[366] That just has an overall bump.

[367] I think that had a lot to do with it.

[368] It was fun.

[369] Those fun moments, they mess with us for sure, and maybe for good reason, but sometimes they can mess with us for bad reasons.

[370] Let's get to Alex Bregman.

[371] The possibility of him playing second base and adding some eligibility there is kind of intriguing.

[372] I don't think that's the reason he's moving up.

[373] I think it's that he landed in another hitter -friendly ballpark with another very good supporting cast.

[374] And maybe people are realizing that Alex Bregman isn't washed either.

[375] I mean, it was a longer foray into free agency than I would have expected.

[376] I would have thought there had been plenty of suitors, that the Yankees would have been a good fit, that the Cubs would have been a good fit.

[377] I'm glad for my rooting interest that he ended up in Boston.

[378] What do you think year one with the Red Sox looks like for Bregman?

[379] And how high up do you think he might go if he keeps swinging the bat well this spring?

[380] So this may sound crazy, but there might come a point in the season where people will say he was meant to be in this uniform.

[381] I don't even remember what it was like in Houston.

[382] I'm serious.

[383] So he is exactly what this absolutely crazy...

[384] team needs because the front office is just like, I feel like there's no direction.

[385] Everything with, you know, happening with Devers, them unable to control Casas, adding every reliever, you know, over 30 in the sun, reclamation projects galore.

[386] They seem like they have no. direction and no real control of this team.

[387] And so they need good vibes.

[388] They need somebody to put them in a good direction.

[389] And apparently that's what's been happening the very first day that Bregan got there.

[390] You've got lower level minor league players saying like, oh my God, this guy, legend in the game, not legend, but you know what I mean?

[391] He's like asking me about me and my family and he's interested.

[392] He's a good dude and people are buying into it.

[393] And he's got that like leadership, even like the way he's working with Devers.

[394] He's probably not like, you know, hey, bro, this is how you play third base.

[395] But he's like, you know, probably getting him, you know, to buy in.

[396] So he's exactly what they need.

[397] And it's a great ballpark for him.

[398] And just, you know, for his approach is, you know, pull heavy approach.

[399] And he's going to be he's great as soon as he.

[400] As soon as that move was made, instantly had an increase in rankings.

[401] It was essentially a no -brainer.

[402] And even it's funny, you play around with a model in a formula.

[403] When I had him potentially going to Detroit versus here, that was like a massive swing.

[404] It was like a $4 or $5 swing, which is really crazy for a guy that basically is earning like teens value.

[405] It's like, wow, that really is a big park difference.

[406] So that kind of even solidified it for me even more.

[407] Detroit's such a tough place to hit.

[408] Beautiful ballpark.

[409] Underrated ballpark as far as one to go visit and watch a game at, but it's just so cold in the Midwest to start the year.

[410] Ball doesn't fly there until you get warmer in the summer months, and I'm with you.

[411] I think as far as the possible places he could have landed realistically, other than Yankee Stadium, this is probably the best possible fit for Alex Bregman.

[412] I think he might be a fringy top 100 guy as draft season rolls along, too, because the quality of that Red Sox lineup, you've got prospects joining the group, too.

[413] You may have Roman Anthony and Christian Campbell in that lineup for half of the season or more, and they're already a pretty solid lineup as they're constructed.

[414] Two more bats to get to.

[415] Bo Bichette, up 25 spots since the start of draft season.

[416] What do you suppose that can be attributed to?

[417] I mean, it was a miserable 2024 for Bo.

[418] Lost like half the season to injury.

[419] Wasn't himself when he was playing.

[420] He'd been 20 % better than league average or more in every big league season prior to last year.

[421] So some of the projection systems are, I think, are a little light on their projections for Bo.

[422] Are you a believer?

[423] Do you think this is a good discount worth taking?

[424] I have been in speaking or in practice because I do have Bo Bichette ranked ahead of where he has been going.

[425] So to me, he didn't feel like a 10th rounder around 150.

[426] You know, my valuations put them higher than that.

[427] And this is just not even assuming like a full bounce back.

[428] Like, I don't think anyone is projecting 20 plus stolen bases from him anymore.

[429] His sprint speed has really been down.

[430] Is that something he's working on?

[431] I don't know.

[432] I know that, you know, just getting a full season of health out of a guy that is, I mean, even with that horrendous, what, half a season of 225 of hitting 225, he's still a career 290 hitter.

[433] These guys don't grow on trees in a league where the average hitter is hitting 240 -something.

[434] There is a lot to like here.

[435] I think there are always some concerns about Bo Bichette, and he's a fit for specific type of builds.

[436] If you don't have a shortstop at that point, and maybe you took on a couple of O 'Neal Cruz or Matt Olsen types that maybe could hurt your batting average, or Mark Vientos or whomever, that would be a good...

[437] sort of balance and fit.

[438] So I do like Bo Bichette in that regard.

[439] I am a little in the back of my head.

[440] I'm just not quite sure what we're going to get out of him, but I'm willing to draft him at or maybe just a little before his price.

[441] Yeah, I think Bo's the kind of player that in a keeper or dynasty league, I'm excited about the bounce back this year.

[442] I think even 2026 might be fine.

[443] I think if I'm looking at him from a three plus year perspective or even trying to evaluate him as a GM.

[444] I don't think I'm giving Bo Bichette the Willie Adamas contract or the Dansby Swanson contract from a couple of years ago because I don't know if he's going to stay at shortstop for most of it, which is true of a lot of those guys.

[445] But I think the way Bo uses the entire field, it's good for batting average.

[446] I don't think it ages particularly well for power.

[447] And I think as the power sort of wanes as he gets older.

[448] then he's going to be one of those guys that just is very slappy.

[449] If he's not stealing bases, he's not going to be very excited for fantasy.

[450] If he's not playing shortstops, he's going to be very excited for a real -life team either.

[451] So I think there's a shorter shelf life for this profile, but I don't think we've reached the point in time where we have to worry about that yet.

[452] So I'm with you.

[453] I do think there's a really good use case.

[454] I think you're right.

[455] If you're lighter on average, the further down the board you go, the harder it is to find high -volume players that thrive in that category, and Bo is a good way to sort of correct from that if you're not trying to punt.

[456] in the batting average department.

[457] One more name to get to on the hitter side, Isak Paredes.

[458] Seems like another great park fit.

[459] Much like Bregman landing in Boston, Paredes effectively gets to be the replacement to be acquired from the Cubs.

[460] Are you expecting a return to the Rays -level production from Paredes, given that they've got the Crawford boxes and he's got that extreme pull -happy flyball approach that he executes so well?

[461] He's wonderfully priced right now.

[462] I mean, personally, I haven't always been landing on him.

[463] Usually, I don't know.

[464] There are corner infielders.

[465] There are a group of them in the 200 to 300 overall range that are solid.

[466] Or usually somebody is grabbing Paredes a little bit before I want to take them.

[467] But as far as lineup context rolls out, like you already mentioned the ballpark.

[468] I mean, that's a no -brainer.

[469] This is a guy that produces well in the front three categories, runs homers and RBI.

[470] And I think that could be accentuated here.

[471] in a role where if he's between a healthy Altuve and a healthy Jordan Alvarez, that could be a career year.

[472] But that really is the key.

[473] You're kind of hoping on those two things happening and the Astros to not fall apart.

[474] It is a different bit of a lineup there now without Bregman.

[475] And it's changed a little bit.

[476] It could still be a good lineup, but so much hinges on the health of Altuve and Jordan.

[477] So if Isaac Perides needs to be like a sort of leader.

[478] You know, producer of the team is the main guy.

[479] I think that puts more pressure on him.

[480] I think it might make things a little bit more difficult.

[481] So it really is all about the health of those two guys around him.

[482] I would also throw this out there.

[483] People are pretty aware of the categorical limitations at this point.

[484] The 250 average we saw in 2023 when he hit 31 home runs with the Rays, that's probably the best you're going to get in average with this approach.

[485] The pulled fly balls that aren't homers are going to be easy outs, right?

[486] They're going to be low BABIP.

[487] Even though Paredes in the past has shown the ability to use the entire field, kind of changes his approach as a situational hitter, right?

[488] Ambushing early in the counts, trying to pull stuff, and then just slapping going the other way.

[489] It's fine.

[490] It works really well, but I think the volume is really good for where he's going.

[491] He's going to play a ton, and the power should come back for at least another year for Isak Paredes.

[492] So what you're telling me is 235 with 40 homers.

[493] That's possible.

[494] Yeah, it is.

[495] That's the high -end, like...

[496] Top percentile outcome, I think, for him as far as the power goes.

[497] But yeah, it might come with a really low average if he's selling all the way out for it.

[498] Listen, at 180 ADP or whatever it is, it's worth it.

[499] I'll figure out other ways to get some average.

[500] Right.

[501] It seems like the way Paredes hits is less likely to collapse this year than Eugenio Suarez, even though Suarez has ridiculous power.

[502] The swing and miss in Suarez's game could just cause him to hit 185 and lose his job.

[503] That's the...

[504] The comp, I'm looking at him like, okay, I need a low average mashing third baseman.

[505] I trust Paredes more at this stage of their respective careers.

[506] So that's the way I would play it.

[507] So Mike Major, another great player writing at FTN, had a Market Watch article that went up this week.

[508] He had a bunch of relievers featured in there too.

[509] I'm going to lump these guys together because...

[510] relievers move up when they get a job.

[511] Like, it's very simple, right?

[512] Ryan Presley jumped up, now to the pick 175 range.

[513] Kenley Jansen signed with the Angels, similar price to Presley.

[514] Carlos Estevez signed with the Royals a couple weeks ago, kind of bumping Lucas Erceg to the background for now.

[515] And then Tanner Scott gets the big deal with the Dodgers, also gets the comments from Dave Roberts indicating that he's going to get the bulk of the save opportunities, which I felt like we really didn't.

[516] How many $72 million setup guys exist in Major League Baseball, right?

[517] I mean, the Dodgers have a lot of money, but I don't think they were going to throw 18 mil a year at Tanner Scott to have him pitch the seventh inning.

[518] At least I don't think that was the plan going in.

[519] Even Tanner Scott, though, sitting closer to pick 130 right now.

[520] Who do you like out of that group?

[521] Are there any values you see that are still not getting appropriately priced up by the market given their respective situations?

[522] Yeah.

[523] I mean, it's interesting now, by the way, Mike Mager, who last year won, it was his first year actually writing in fantasy and it happened to correspond with him winning the NFPC online, I'm sorry, the online, just the overall auction championship.

[524] So he took down a few hundred teams and took down the grand prize.

[525] So he put it all out there.

[526] He still won.

[527] So props to him.

[528] So yeah, this market watch thing is great because we're kind of looking at.

[529] I know you do the same thing.

[530] Like, you know, where are these guys jumping over the last week, over the last two weeks?

[531] And the closers are just so volatile.

[532] You know, with the Dodgers situation, this was something where I was scared.

[533] Even, you know, after Tanner Scott signed, it's, you know, even at pick 150, it's like, it's hard for me to click.

[534] And this is, again, a month ago where we didn't have that sort of confirmation from Dave Roberts when he said that Tanner Scott.

[535] and Blake Trinan were going to get sort of the most important outs.

[536] But before that, my thought was, despite the money spent on him and Yates and whomever, they have so many guys that can do it.

[537] Why even name one guy?

[538] Why even roll with somebody?

[539] Keep it open, considering Tanner Scott's also their top lefty.

[540] They got Alex Vessia behind there.

[541] But sometimes you'll need a lefty.

[542] Sometimes you'll need a righty.

[543] Most likely, you will get...

[544] 20 plus saves from Tanner Scott with good ratios, but who knows how this thing could go.

[545] Remember Tanner Scott two years ago where he was, you know, Charlie Sheen from major league, right?

[546] Just like balls everywhere and just couldn't control anything like a two whip for a few months.

[547] And it just never know when that can happen.

[548] It's not like the money controls that, you know, just because he got paid doesn't mean he won't get all of a sudden lose his control.

[549] I like it, you know, for the ratios, you will get good saves, obviously great team context.

[550] So I'm in for that.

[551] just kind of add around his price.

[552] Carlos Estevez and Erceg, first of all, just pour one out for all my November through December Erceg teams where he was my seventh, eighth overall pick.

[553] I'm sorry, eighth round pick.

[554] And now he is essentially Kansas City's high leverage reliever.

[555] Of course, that depends on Estevez, right?

[556] He's already, I believe, dealing with some sort of, is it back discomfort or something like that?

[557] Yeah, he had a minor thing pop up.

[558] Let's see what it was.

[559] It was the lower back tightness.

[560] Yeah, so we're not too concerned, but we already know Carlos Estevez, he's essentially like a hired gun, I guess, if you will, because he's just a ninth inning guy.

[561] So if he just maintains, then that's the perfect scenario.

[562] You just have Ursa get the harder outs, manage seventh and eighth with some of the other guys there in Hunter Harvey, and then you just have Estevez come and finish things off in the ninth.

[563] Lucas Ursaic is a better pitcher, and that's probably why he's utilizing that role.

[564] But who knows how these things shake out?

[565] So that just makes, you know, me, it makes it tough, right?

[566] It makes it tough to draft Estevez where he's going in the 150, 180 range.

[567] Then what really is Ursaic's price?

[568] And could he, you know, just take over?

[569] It's so tough.

[570] I mean, closers are, you know, they're the bane of our Roto existence, but it's part of the game.

[571] They really are.

[572] I think in that 170 range, David Bednar still sort of stands out to me as the closer that I feel the best about because we learned he was tipping pitches last year.

[573] The actual stuff, the velocity, the movement, it was all still there.

[574] The track record prior to last season I think is longer than what you're going to find for a lot of guys that go in that 175 to 200 range.

[575] So if I get stuck in that part of the board, it's Bednar.

[576] I do think Carlos Estevez gets a little underrated because of the time he spent in Colorado.

[577] because he doesn't have a multi -year track record of being an elite reliever, we look at him and say, eh, maybe he's a pop -up guy, but I think he's good enough to keep the job.

[578] I think that's all you have to be.

[579] to be a closer.

[580] So I think he's probably my second favorite from that later bunch.

[581] I think Kenley Jansen, as great as his career has been, you can just sort of see the writing on the wall.

[582] It's either going to be a trade to a situation where he might not be a closer anymore, or it might just be the usual wobbles that we get around August where he might just lose the job anyway if he stays with the Angels, right?

[583] So I think what you see is what you get, given his age especially.

[584] But as Tanner Scott goes, I think the price is fine right now.

[585] I think there's enough saves to go around for the Dodgers where even if he's...

[586] 75 % of the saves are going to him.

[587] That's probably good enough to return value at that price point.

[588] A couple starters moving up.

[589] One we've talked a lot about on this show, Clay Holmes, getting a ton of love for the new pitches.

[590] We talked about the kick change yesterday.

[591] Up to about pick 250.

[592] And Mike wrote about this in his piece.

[593] It seems like that's going to keep going up.

[594] Clay Holmes looks like a big time helium guy.

[595] I wonder if that's because people are going to look back at what Ronaldo Lopez did last year in terms of ratios and just start getting the pie in the sky.

[596] What could go right vision for Clay Holmes, given that he's adding to that arsenal and he seems to have the feel for adding a lot of pitches quickly.

[597] Like what we see now might not even be the stuff that he's throwing as the season unfolds.

[598] Yeah, if only it was that simple.

[599] You just, oh, just do what Ronaldo Lopez and Garrett Crochet did last year.

[600] Hey, no big deal.

[601] Man, it was a good time not long ago being able to scoop up Clay Holmes at like 330 overall.

[602] That's like the 22nd round of 15 teamers.

[603] And that has long passed.

[604] And of course, I blame people like you and Eno with the big audience and helping move that market.

[605] But that's the game.

[606] That's what we do.

[607] So Clay Holmes is a great.

[608] I think he's still an okay price, but it's getting close to a little concerning.

[609] I think one of the things that moved up for him was the fact that I guess everyone around him is going down there in the Mets organization.

[610] And also there isn't as much concern of innings limitations, or at least that's the way it's been said.

[611] I still think there could be an issue with innings limitations.

[612] So I don't know.

[613] Sometimes these things are too good to be true.

[614] So I do have a little bit of concern of Clay Holmes.

[615] Like if he starts.

[616] jump in the top 200 like you know no thank you I I'm not gonna be touching it there but it was a good pitcher hopefully it translates for him and hopefully he you know the vibe of the you know no offense New York friends but uh I don't know something just happens to the players when they get to the Mets yeah I think that the thing that surprised me about the 2024 Mets though that the the vibes for the first time in my adult life seemed like they were good around that team and I don't know how to fully explain it, but because they've basically run it back with the same roster and then added Juan Soto and made additions on the pitching side, I can't assume the vibes are bad until they show us that they're bad, right?

[617] So it seems like a franchise has found a way to turn some things around.

[618] As far as the ceiling price estimate for me on Clay Holmes, how about pick 180?

[619] Seth Lugo goes there right now.

[620] If you're looking at Seth Lugo versus Clay Holmes, pick 180, which would be the end of the 12th round of a 15 -teamer, I think I'd take the chance on Clay Holmes.

[621] I mean, as good as Seth Lugo was last year, Holmes looks like he could be electric.

[622] This looks like better stuff.

[623] Higher K rates, elite ratios because of the park may be possible, but even just good ratios.

[624] I don't think he has to do a ton to return value from that pick.

[625] So if that's where it tops out, I'm probably still in.

[626] You're right.

[627] If he starts creeping up...

[628] That 100 to 125 range, there are a lot of pitchers I really like there right now.

[629] Some of those guys are going to move up too.

[630] But I have a hard time seeing myself liking Clay Holmes more than that cluster and still paying the inflated price if he goes all the way to the moon.

[631] I'd be interested.

[632] After the show, I want to look and compare my Lugo versus Clay Holmes projections because I'm guessing they're not far off.

[633] And right now, I'm not touching Seth Lugo with a 10 -foot pole.

[634] in the top 200 so for sure i would take uh you know clay homes there but again we're always like we're always hugging against um adp as well right because we don't want to draft someone way too early uh above his thing but if he gets there i'll think about it but right now it kind of you know it's feeling like um you know it's still a good price but we'll see how much crazier it gets how much more you and you know we'll uh we'll talk them up I think the other guy that's going to get some helium, it's only had a little bit so far, but I always feel like there's people in the room, multiple people in every draft room that like him.

[635] It's Spencer Schwellenbach.

[636] I looked at the ADP chart I made to see how much he's actually changed this draft season.

[637] He's had eight picks for draft season from 98 to 94 picks in February.

[638] It's really not that much, not even a half a round, which is surprising because I feel like everybody likes him.

[639] So first off, do you like him at the current price?

[640] Secondly, if I'm right about the next wave of helium, what price becomes too much on Spencer Schwellenbach, who ended up being one of the more pleasant in -season pickup surprises, I think, last year off the waiver wire?

[641] I hate to say it.

[642] I don't know.

[643] I mean, if he's going up any more than he already is, and it does seem like he's going in that direction, I'm not going to end up with him anywhere in Vegas.

[644] It's funny, just last night, like late last night, I sometimes, during the day, I don't get to post a lot on social media.

[645] So last night, I just, I don't know, I guess just came out.

[646] I woke up in the morning.

[647] I'm like, oh, I posted this, I guess.

[648] It was Spester Schwellenbach in 2025, all -star and top 10 MLB ace or demoted to AAA by early May, then pulls the.

[649] Bowdoin Francis special after the All -Star break.

[650] No in -between.

[651] So I guess that's how I feel about him.

[652] You think it's either going to be wildly successful or disappointing, and then someone else will reap the benefits after picking up Spencer Schwellenbach as a mid -season drop?

[653] Exactly.

[654] Something like it's going to be all or not.

[655] I mean, most likely.

[656] The answer always usually lies somewhere in the middle.

[657] I don't think he's going to be a top -10 starting pitcher, but he can easily be a top -25 guy.

[658] I don't understand why a guy like him...

[659] is cruising way up the boards when everybody around him, there's a good case to be made about all of them.

[660] The only difference is we've seen less Schwellenbach, right?

[661] We've seen, what, three quarters of a season.

[662] That's really all it is.

[663] And he pitches for the Braves, of course.

[664] Yeah, I think there's some organizational trust there.

[665] But to your point, right, we've seen a lot more Tyler Glass now.

[666] And the Glass now goes after Schwellenbach.

[667] Their injury risks probably aren't that far apart.

[668] Schwellenbach's a converted shortstop, doesn't have as much experience pitching, so you have a little bit of that kind of baked in there as well.

[669] But, yeah, Hunter Brown, Grayson Rodriguez, those guys are going after Schwellenbach.

[670] They've got more experience pitching.

[671] And Hunter Brown's funny, too.

[672] We love Hunter Brown on this show.

[673] I've liked him for a long time.

[674] I couldn't explain why things were so bad early last year.

[675] It's interesting that we talked about Bregman and just the kind of teammate he is because Bregman gets a lot of credit for being someone that was in.

[676] the ear of Hunter Brown saying, hey, you need something that keeps righties from cheating.

[677] You need to keep them honest on the inside part of the plate.

[678] Started throwing, I think it was the two -seamer up in the zone, and it just changed everything for him, right?

[679] So, like, if you remember how bad Hunter Brown's April was last year, there will be good players that have terrible Aprils.

[680] Guys that we like, they'll be horrible for at least a month.

[681] And maybe, yeah, maybe Spencer Schmolenbach is that guy.

[682] I think it's important to just remember that's in the range of outcomes for guys that are good.

[683] Because it happens, and it's frustrating, and it's hard to manage it in season, especially in 10 - and 12 -team leagues.

[684] There were definitely 12 -team leagues where you looked at your roster and said, Hunter Brown's my worst player right now.

[685] I have to cut this guy.

[686] I can't justify holding onto him in late April.

[687] And then someone else reaped the benefits of the player that you liked from the very beginning.

[688] Yeah, I mean, thankfully, I was on the same page with you guys.

[689] It was a big Hunter Brown guy.

[690] So it was almost like a—it really stung, right, when he had that outing where— I mean, the guy just couldn't get an out.

[691] And I don't think he even was a full inning.

[692] Right.

[693] And he allowed.

[694] Yeah.

[695] And so that is really tough to come to overcome.

[696] And he did it and he did it in spades.

[697] He was very consistent, I believe, from May or June on.

[698] Just incredible.

[699] And the guy that we expected him to be.

[700] But that damage was done.

[701] And so we've been doing this for so many years.

[702] Right.

[703] And we know we trust our instincts.

[704] We trust what we see.

[705] And if we realize that he's not hurt.

[706] And if something's wrong, he's a professional.

[707] He'll adjust.

[708] We're not going to go running.

[709] First of all, we're not going to run a social media and be like, this guy stinks.

[710] And then we're also not going to be just dropping him off our fantasy teams, a guy that you're drafting with a top 10 pick.

[711] So I'm glad it all worked out.

[712] It's just another lesson for us to not overreact to just one small thing.

[713] But when you spend your whole offseason essentially touting George Kirby and Hunter Brown, and they both deliver.

[714] 20 earned runs in like a three -day span, it definitely has its sting, that's for sure.

[715] It will rattle anyone, even if you've done it for a long time.

[716] But yeah, since that start, so it was nine earned runs in two -thirds of an inning for Hunter Brown on April 11th against the Royals.

[717] And then from that start forward, so April 16th on, 288 ERA, 115 whip, nine and a half Ks per nine, 11 wins in 162 in a third innings and in 171 Ks.

[718] everything you needed.

[719] He was basically an ace from that point forward, which I think is why everyone looks at him now and says, yeah, he's pretty much an ace now, but he's not priced like one.

[720] So I would say Hunter Brown also fits into that Spencer Schwellenbach guy who's going to move up boards over the course of draft season.

[721] He's not going to be as cheap in main events as he has been up to this point in draft season.

[722] Probably slap a sticker like that on...

[723] Grayson Rodriguez, too.

[724] I think he's going to catch a little bit of spring helium once we get a few turns through the Grapefruit League rotation.

[725] Let's get to a few fallers.

[726] I know you probably don't have infinite time.

[727] We're not going to make a two -hour episode today.

[728] That would be ridiculous.

[729] It would be fun.

[730] I would enjoy it.

[731] Yeah, it would be fun.

[732] But we've got stuff we've got to get to.

[733] So some fallers.

[734] Okay, Acuna is down 11 spots in ADP since the start of draft season.

[735] Timetable and his comments about maybe being less aggressive on the base paths.

[736] Are you in, though?

[737] on Acuna at the end of round two in a situation where there's an overall prize?

[738] Are you looking at him and saying, you know what?

[739] The what could go right is still really good.

[740] Or are you saying the projections cannot account for the information?

[741] Most projections simply cannot account for what we now have been told about Ronald Acuna Jr. Yeah, no, I can't take him there.

[742] And so I'm not going to end up with a lot of Acuna.

[743] It's some of the best ball contests where you're entering a whole bunch for 10 bucks a pop.

[744] I mean, those are the places where I don't mind grabbing Acuna, even some gladiators prior, you know, let's mix it up.

[745] It's my 15th team.

[746] Let me get, you know, let me get some Acuna in here.

[747] But when it comes to the bigger money leagues, I, I can't do it.

[748] And listen, that can be proven wrong, but also I want to be careful of compounding risk.

[749] I am.

[750] more of an overall player.

[751] What that means is I'm, I'm willing to sort of absorb some more risk because I trust myself during the season to manage my lineup and optimize it.

[752] And then also, you know, do well in, in, in free agent and the free agent waiver process.

[753] And so I'm going to be taking riskier players on my team and I can't have my entire team full of risk.

[754] And so I have to pick my spots.

[755] So unfortunately he's a, he's not one of them.

[756] And a lot of it has to do with the price.

[757] If it was a fourth round, which obviously isn't happening, then of course I'd absolutely consider it, but not where, not where he's going there.

[758] So if players are moving up, players have to move down.

[759] It's just the way the laws of ADP work.

[760] But George Kirby and Jacob deGrom both down 12 spots since the start of draft season.

[761] Seems kind of weird, doesn't it?

[762] Is there anything to keep you away from either one of those guys?

[763] Is it possible SP1 around pick 50?

[764] So I think...

[765] Part of it has to do with, I don't know, in these 12 teamers, I think we've seen maybe some of the closers come up.

[766] There's some other guys that have popped up in around there.

[767] So a lot of it isn't about them per se.

[768] It's just certain priorities of drafters are changing where, and especially in the 12 team OCs, the starting pitchers just go a little bit later anyways.

[769] So I like both, obviously for different reasons.

[770] I think this could be the best season of Kirby's career.

[771] At least that's what I'm hoping for.

[772] And even if there isn't any uptick in with the strikeout rate, which is usually the reason why people are like, well, there's just so much firepower with strikeouts in these ranges.

[773] Why am I going to take Kirby?

[774] But he's worth it because the ratios, the area and whip, they're the most underappreciated and the scarcest.

[775] It's so important.

[776] A guy that has a 2%, 3 % walk rate, it's unheard of.

[777] You get an anchor like that on your team, that's fantastic.

[778] Jacob deGrom, of course, much riskier and hasn't done anything or had meaningful fantasy impact in five years.

[779] But to me, he's healthy now, just like Chris Sale was at this point last year.

[780] People didn't want to buy in on Chris Sale.

[781] You're getting him in the mid -hundreds.

[782] And look, there you go, SB2 overall last season.

[783] So it's possible with DeGrom.

[784] I don't think anyone's projecting for more than 130, even 140 innings.

[785] But it doesn't matter.

[786] If you get even that many innings and you're paying a fourth -round price, you're going to get profit out of him.

[787] He's not going to all of a sudden suck.

[788] That's Jacob DeGrom.

[789] It looked like the stuff was mostly back last year in the brief time post -surgery.

[790] So it was just good to see him get even 10 innings back last year, right?

[791] So I think you treat him like an older version of Tyler Glass now.

[792] On a per -start basis, it's going to be really good.

[793] And as long as you are a competent player at finding what you need in the waiver wire, then you can take that risk.

[794] If you're bad at that...

[795] Maybe don't take that risk.

[796] Play to your strengths in this case, because it makes sense value -wise based on what he should do for projection.

[797] And you're right, this could be the best year from Kirby, so I like that call as well.

[798] Probably nothing about those two guys in particular causing the fall, as you said.

[799] The types of drafts being done changes things a little bit.

[800] I'm curious where you fall on Felix Bautista.

[801] He probably is ready for opening day based on timetables, even though he's a little behind the spring.

[802] Relievers can catch up, and we talk a lot about starters and worrying about them post -TJ.

[803] We talk less about the relievers coming back.

[804] Is Bautista in your circle of trust among the closers that you want if you're trying to find a closer one at a discount?

[805] He was the first closer I drafted back when I entered my first draft in November.

[806] Of course, a lot has changed since then, but has it really?

[807] I think...

[808] What it is is our outlook of how things are changing.

[809] So he's falling just based on the fact that the Orioles are doing what they're supposed to do, which is not rushing him back, taking it easy.

[810] It has been a very long time since the surgery and his recovery.

[811] And so I think he'll be fine.

[812] I think this is the right move.

[813] This is how you kind of help to preserve him over the year.

[814] And I think we might be looking at a potential deal here.

[815] I had a guy who was just a dynamic closer two seasons ago, could easily be a top three, five guy, but the market is sort of being slow played, I guess.

[816] And so because of that, we're getting, I think, a little bit of a deal.

[817] Of course, all bets are off and hurts his arm or something.

[818] You just never know.

[819] This is all right.

[820] It's all baseball.

[821] We can't really predict any of it.

[822] We can't predict tomorrow, let alone health of a player over a season.

[823] But I like him where he's going.

[824] If he's going to continue to fall, I'm going to probably continue to buy.

[825] More likely I get him now at the slight discount than it was that I was going to take him ahead of guys who weren't rehabbing over the last couple of months.

[826] So happily taking the discount on Bautista where I can because I think he's clearly the guy in Baltimore.

[827] Roki Sasaki down 20 picks since December?

[828] What's going on with that?

[829] Are you in on Roki?

[830] I'm kind of the biggest Roki pusher there is.

[831] Like if Roki was a drug, you know, I'm your dealer.

[832] You're selling all the Roki.

[833] Oh, yeah.

[834] I mean, he was top five in pitching projections, mine.

[835] And that's with like 140 innings or something.

[836] Just the numbers, the ratios popped out so nicely.

[837] And even through social media, I'm saying like, draft Rokey, draft Rokey.

[838] This is before he signed with the Dodgers.

[839] And then I'm saying, Rokey's going to sign with the Dodgers.

[840] Get Rokey.

[841] What has happened is, well, first of all, I'm trying to make Fetch happen.

[842] People don't want Fetch.

[843] It's whatever.

[844] Then I'll enjoy it to myself, hopefully.

[845] But now he's fallen to the point where, I mean, I think he's a fantastic deal.

[846] And what it is is just around the conversation of that he maybe considered Tommy John or you remember that conversation from a couple of weeks ago.

[847] That is what it is.

[848] It's between that and maybe thinking they're going to be babying him or whatever.

[849] And then I think in some like, you know, practice like Kyle Teal hit like a bomb off of him or something like that.

[850] So I don't know.

[851] I think.

[852] I think the hate has gone a little too far.

[853] And so if you're getting Roki Sasaki at like 100, 120, to me, it's a deal.

[854] I don't have him anymore as a top five.

[855] I did sort of adjust a little bit some of the rate stats to be a little bit more, I guess, realistic.

[856] So he's closer to like a three ERA guy as opposed to like the two six ridiculous DeGromnus that was, I guess, over projecting, you could say.

[857] But yeah, I like him.

[858] He's one of my highest roster pitchers.

[859] You can almost stack Dodgers pitchers right now.

[860] in some leagues because they're priced down, which is something I started to do in Tout Wars a little bit a couple days ago.

[861] Unlimited IL in Tout Wars, too.

[862] It's built to do this.

[863] NFBC stacking the Dodgers pitchers might cause some pain.

[864] If they're all hurt at the same time, you're going to have some difficult decisions to make.

[865] But if you have IL spots, you've got to think a lot about the prices you're getting on that group right now.

[866] How about this group, the Rays pitchers?

[867] We talked about Steinbrenner Field, home games being there.

[868] It's going to hurt.

[869] It's going to hurt the pitchers.

[870] It's an easier place to hit.

[871] We know the trop boosts strikeouts.

[872] It suppresses offense as a whole.

[873] Looking at this group, Shane McClanahan, he's moved down a little bit.

[874] I think it's like seven spots he's fallen in the last month, 19 spots since draft season started.

[875] So he's available at pick 130.

[876] The news on him has been good.

[877] They said 150 -ish innings are possible.

[878] So you kind of have a good enough sense of his workload post -second TJ where he...

[879] That'll work at that price point.

[880] Pepio's down almost 20 picks since draft season started.

[881] Even Pete Fairbanks in the bullpen, down about 30 picks since draft season started.

[882] Shane Boss down about 40.

[883] Correcting for the ballpark makes sense.

[884] Is the market overcorrecting on Ray's pitching and possibly overcorrecting the other way on Ray's bats right now?

[885] It's very possible.

[886] We've known this fact for a couple of months and the market has been moving on the hitters.

[887] The hitters have been moving up, specifically Camonero.

[888] And then the pitchers have moved down ever so slightly.

[889] The fact that Pete Fairbanks hasn't been traded is a reason why he's actually now being drafted again.

[890] I remember there was a time where...

[891] people wouldn't touch him at 180 overall.

[892] And it's a, is that a, who said a, and now it's a, you know, now you can't get him at 150.

[893] It's funny how that works.

[894] And then, you know, as soon as you do take him at 150, he'll get traded.

[895] But the arms, this, I mean, the starting pitchers, I really liked them all despite the park.

[896] Maybe it's just like, I don't know what bias I have, but I like these guys.

[897] And maybe I still think they're pitching in the trop.

[898] You know, I just can't get over the fact that they're going to be in this new place and then I'll be in for a rude awakening.

[899] But again, they're not going to pitch all their.

[900] starts there.

[901] These are players that after McClanahan, if you're looking at like Boz, Pepio, even Taj Bradley, they're going to be drafted in a range like after pick 150 where you'll have some pitching depth.

[902] So there are opportunities where you can bench them and manage leagues.

[903] So you can get around certain things.

[904] But if they're on it, I mean, the skills are phenomenal for all these guys.

[905] So I think it's hopefully a bright future.

[906] I could just be drinking my own Kool -Aid.

[907] Yeah, but it's also possible that the initial ADPs and projections and expectations were Wrong to begin with.

[908] They may have been underpriced even before we had any news of the damage of the Trop, right?

[909] So you may have been getting a deal, and now you're getting an even better deal because everything was wrong from the start.

[910] And I think that's maybe part of why you can look at those guys and say, wait, wait, no, I do like them.

[911] They're good pitchers.

[912] They should be able to handle.

[913] a more difficult, a more hitter -friendly environment.

[914] So I've been trying to scoop up some raised pitchers again at this discount.

[915] Last question for today.

[916] We covered a lot of ground with the risers and fallers.

[917] Had some other stuff we were putting the rundown.

[918] We'll save that for a different day.

[919] Who is the most overvalued player?

[920] And if you've got more than one, I'm sure our listeners will be happy to hear more than one.

[921] But who are the most overvalued players to you right now going inside the top 75 by ADP?

[922] So first five rounds of a 15 -team league draft.

[923] Oh man, in the top 75, it's tough.

[924] I think I'm going to get some backlash from it, and especially from my rival city of San Diego.

[925] By the way, I do love the city of San Diego much more than my own city of Los Angeles.

[926] It is nothing personal, but it is Jackson Merrill.

[927] Oh, really?

[928] To me, yeah.

[929] I mean, listen, I like Jackson Merrill a lot.

[930] To be that clutch as a rookie, to be so productive, to just be a good hitter, have speed, a little bit of everything is amazing.

[931] But I'm always cautious about paying full value and then some for a guy that's only done it once.

[932] And we're talking like 20, 22 overall, like very expensive price.

[933] In NFBC drafts, that would mean taking him over a Zach Wheeler, an ace starting pitcher who gets it done every year.

[934] A Logan Gilbert, you know, over possibly even, you know, Jackson Churio, who's sometimes going around that range over Jaron Duran, who I'm not even a huge fan of.

[935] But so.

[936] Yeah, it's just the, when I'm looking at, we were talking about Wyatt Lankford earlier.

[937] And if Wyatt Lankford is going two rounds later, I'd rather have Wyatt Lankford in the fourth and Jackson Merrill in the second, because I think Lankford could beat him straight up.

[938] Same thing with Michael Harris.

[939] And there's just a lot of outfielders.

[940] So it's, for me, it's just a matter of like, you know, build, construction.

[941] He just hasn't fit into my plans and it's nothing personal.

[942] I really like Jackson Merrill.

[943] I, you know, wish him all the best.

[944] Hope he succeeds.

[945] Hope he has a great year.

[946] But I don't see a better season than what he had last season.

[947] I think that's a surprising name.

[948] I was definitely, I don't know, man. I felt like everybody liked Jackson Merrill coming off of last year.

[949] Not necessarily that he's your must -have player in the second round, but more in that I don't think I've encountered anyone who...

[950] wasn't buying in on a repeat or even another small step forward this year.

[951] I know there were some improvements in the second half, too, where he was making a little more hard contact and maybe showing more of a 30 home run future than what we expected from him as a prospect.

[952] That's the funny thing about Jackson Merrill is that nothing you see from him as a prospect power -wise really looks like what we saw in his rookie season.

[953] That's the impressive part.

[954] He's been so young for the level everywhere he's played.

[955] Love that as a choosing -your -own -guy answer to that question for sure.

[956] I'm finding Jaron Duran is the guy that, I don't know if he's overvalued or if I just don't want to build teams with him.

[957] And I can't even pin down exactly what it is that's bothering me about Jaron Duran.

[958] I don't know if it's because of the age of his breakout.

[959] I mean, he was 27 last year.

[960] He turned 28 in September.

[961] I think the problem I had was like, Before last season, the power wasn't consistent and he was a bad defender.

[962] And I'm trying to decide how sticky his improvements defensively are because it's the type of thing where if he sustains it, then he's fine through slumps.

[963] And for as early as he's going, he shouldn't have any questions about playing time, which I don't think he actually does.

[964] But if we're talking about the Red Sox being more crowded and Roman Anthony being part of that mix, There has to be a scenario in which Jaron Duran plays less than every single day because they have so much depth and so many ways they can line things up, right?

[965] So maybe it's just something along those lines that is messing with me. Everything's good on paper last year.

[966] 21 % K rate, 21 homers, 34 steals, didn't chase a ton, career -high barrel rate at 9 .1%.

[967] I don't know, man. Maybe it's the projections being just kind of...

[968] For a slash line anyway, being kind of just okay for a second rounder, the Bad X has 269, 333, 454 down.

[969] But because he's going to hit 20 homers and steal 33 bases, he still fits in the second round.

[970] It feels like a player that's maybe a rounder too overpriced relative to who he is at his true talent core.

[971] And I don't want to pay the tax for how good he was last year because he can take a small step back, still be really good, and not return enough value for round two.

[972] I personally take a huge L on Jaron Duran because I was out on him last year at his price, which was starting to creep up to 120, 130, and I just was not in on him.

[973] The one thing that I'm at least good at is to be able to separate personal from the analytics and analysis.

[974] And you take the L. You don't double down.

[975] And that's not what I'm doing.

[976] I'm with you exactly.

[977] If you were to ask me a second player after Jackson Merrill I'm not interested in, it's Jaron Duran.

[978] And it's just a pure...

[979] You know, it's a value thing.

[980] It's the fact that there are, again, similar outfielders where Jackson Merrill and Jaron Duran going that are going around or two later that I like that I feel can easily beat both of those guys out.

[981] And it's nothing against those two.

[982] They're really solid.

[983] But Jaron Duran earned first round fantasy value last year.

[984] Do I think he earns first or second round this year?

[985] I don't think so.

[986] I think it's possible, but I just don't think so.

[987] because everything just has to go absolutely right again perfectly.

[988] And we have to be picky and choosy.

[989] You only get one second -round pick, and they're like 15 to 20 options.

[990] So if that's the case, those are two guys I'm not taking.

[991] Our toss -up from maybe a month or so ago by ADP was Jazz Chisholm versus Jaron Duran.

[992] I said, look, Jazz has a brutal injury history, but Jaron Duran has an injury history too that's not particularly good.

[993] Jazz in Yankee Stadium was a different player.

[994] He also stole more bases on a per -game basis after the trade.

[995] I just saw more ways for Jazz to keep trending up than I saw ways for Jaron Duran to maintain the level he reached last year.

[996] Again, even if he's very, very good.

[997] I'm sure we're going to get some shade from Red Sox Nation for that call.

[998] It's always the downside of taking swipes at those players.

[999] But look, it's just a I -don't -want -him -where -he -goes thing.

[1000] It doesn't mean he's bad.

[1001] All right, Vlad, before we let you go, what do you have at FTN right now?

[1002] A lot of great new tools.

[1003] Your own projections are there, which is awesome because I've talked a lot about wanting to have better playing time projections or at least my own or something unique.

[1004] You can be unique, but you also have to be good.

[1005] And you are very good at projecting playing time.

[1006] Yeah, thank you.

[1007] Yeah, ftnfantasy .com.

[1008] We just have a suite of tools in addition to all the content, the rankings, and everything that I'm updating.

[1009] But I'm in the database of my own model, the VDP, it stands for value draft position within that model.

[1010] And I'm adjusting playing time based on actionable news.

[1011] And that in turn changes the values of these players, not just the players themselves, but of the entire league environment based on whatever settings that you want to choose.

[1012] And the way to do that is we have this brand new custom, it's a custom rankings and projections tool.

[1013] And with that, you can go in there, you can set your points or a roto.

[1014] You can set your percentage split between hitters and pitchers.

[1015] You can choose the VDP model or the FTN model.

[1016] Obviously, it's fueled more data -centric driven, and you get the choice of that.

[1017] You can set default for points leagues from CBS, ESPN, Yahoo, whatever these sites.

[1018] Just see their...

[1019] their default scoring.

[1020] And so, yeah, I mean, it's just, it's a great system, but I'm going in there and adjusting all this playing time, you know, every day.

[1021] I'm not going to adjust because, you know, let's go Kyle Teal hit two home runs in a spring training game.

[1022] I'm not going to bump him a hundred, you know, plate appearances, whatever, but we're making, you know, the Freddie Freeman thing.

[1023] There's obviously the fact that he's not going to play day games after night games, things like that, and getting treatment on his ankle through the first half of the season.

[1024] That's actionable.

[1025] That's something that.

[1026] requires a little bit of bump but yeah we're just grinding over here just like you are so uh yeah fdn fantasy come uh come and join the family we will take great care of you and help you in your league all right be sure to sign up get that subscription today follow vlad on social RotoGut everywhere?

[1027] Is that your handle everywhere you go?

[1028] I figured you kept that.

[1029] BlueSkyX, wherever people want to find you, you'll be there.

[1030] And again, join the Rates and Barrels Discord.

[1031] We haven't done so already.

[1032] We've got a mailbag channel.

[1033] Send some mailbag questions in.

[1034] We're going to take some of those on Monday's episode.

[1035] Eno's back from assignment on Monday.

[1036] Thanks to our producer, Brian Smith, for putting this episode together.

[1037] Thanks to Vlad for taking the time to join me today.

[1038] That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels.

[1039] We're back with you on Monday.