Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2017

[0] From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro.

[1] This is The Daily.

[2] Today, the voters in Alabama have rejected Roy Moore, giving Democrats a rare victory in the staunchly conservative state.

[3] That brings the Republican majority in the Senate down to one seat.

[4] It's Wednesday, December 13th.

[5] I think that I have been waiting all my life, and now I just don't know what the hell is that.

[6] Thank you for calling the Renaissance.

[7] hotel and spa.

[8] How many fish is you?

[9] Hey, I'm trying to reach room 303.

[10] Jonathan Martin.

[11] Mr. Martin.

[12] Hey.

[13] Good morning.

[14] Jonathan, it's 12 .02 a .m. on Wednesday morning.

[15] A few hours ago, Democrat Doug Jones was announced the winner in the Alabama special election.

[16] When is the last time that the state of Alabama elected a Democrat to the United States Senate?

[17] It was actually in 1992.

[18] His name was Richard C. Shelby.

[19] He is now the senior senator from Alabama who happens to be a Republican.

[20] He changed parties and ran again in 1994 as a Republican with the last time that they elected a Democrat wasn't, in fact, a quarter of a century ago.

[21] Wow.

[22] John, then, how wild is it to you for Alabama to have elected a Democrat in this moment where the political divide is so vast?

[23] It's striking.

[24] this is one of the most Republican states in the country, the deeply partisan state.

[25] It's racially polarized.

[26] African Americans are almost entirely Democrats, and you'd have to guess about 75 % of the population, the white population here, is Republican.

[27] So you've got the sort of two parties fractured along racial lines.

[28] What happened tonight is that you saw a swing of a lot of white voters, a good chunk of them, moderate Republicans, who just didn't want to be embarrassed.

[29] They've known Roy Moore since well before the allegations from the women earlier this year.

[30] They have been not fond of him, shall we say, for years because they find him to be incendiary and divisive.

[31] And I think what happened, Michael, is after these women emerged last month to accuse him of sexual misconduct, it was the last straw.

[32] And in fact, no more was kind of a catch -all that Doug Jones, the Democrat, used to implore moderate and even some conservatives in this state to, for a moment at least, drop their partisan preference and support a Democrat.

[33] Well, you were just sitting out here in this cold.

[34] I know.

[35] It's lovely.

[36] Jonathan, our colleague Jess Bidgood was down in Alabama today with you and talking to voters.

[37] And she has this kind of fascinating exchange with a woman.

[38] So what's your name?

[39] Linda.

[40] Linda, what's your last name?

[41] Well, I don't want to be voted.

[42] Are you sure?

[43] but doesn't want her name used because she feels like she is alone in Alabama in being someone who won't support Roy Moore.

[44] The thing is, I don't want my name in the paper because I'm probably voting differently than a lot of Alabama people are.

[45] What do you mean?

[46] Oh, because you voted for Jones.

[47] Gotcha.

[48] Yes.

[49] Oh, really?

[50] But I don't want to make my friends met, you know.

[51] I don't even know how they're voting, but...

[52] She's a white woman and didn't want to kind of confess that to people in her world.

[53] Does that feel to you like part of the story of this election?

[54] A lot of people quietly unable to stomach Roy Moore.

[55] Oh, yeah.

[56] I think that's the huge part of this story is that folks not wanting to be totally honest with a pollster, with a neighbor, certainly with a reporter from out of town.

[57] I may get killed, but maybe not everybody reads, but a lot of people do read New York.

[58] times.

[59] Yeah.

[60] All right, so you want my last name to you.

[61] Yes, please.

[62] I'll have to spell it for you.

[63] Okay.

[64] Ten letters.

[65] Okay.

[66] But who just were embarrassed by Roy Moore, and by the way, had been for years well before these women emerged to accuse him of sexual misconduct.

[67] This is somebody who was a birther.

[68] This is somebody who said that Muslims should not be sworn in as lawmakers in this country, who even said that being gay should be illegal in this country.

[69] The other man is just not a choice for me. And Doug Jones is a man of great integrity and great character.

[70] He's a reasonable, sensible person.

[71] And I really agree with our other senator, Senator Shelby, that we in Alabama deserve better than more and more.

[72] For that part of the electorate, it was just their moment of enough, enough.

[73] Let's not keep elected this person, even if it's a Democrat, we can stomach him.

[74] We may find out that we have more people who turn democratic with this going on, because a lot of the Republicans are saying that they just cannot vote for him.

[75] Yeah, yeah.

[76] It sounds like you don't even want to say his name.

[77] I don't.

[78] It's just, he doesn't deserve any kind of credit for anything.

[79] Crucial to Jones's victory tonight, Michael, was the fact that he won a lot of the most affluent parts of this state.

[80] You know, Aaron.

[81] areas that typically support Bush or Romney -style Republicans and are tax -averse, but they just couldn't stomach Roy Moore.

[82] So just so I understand, what percentage of white voters in Alabama voted for Jones in the end?

[83] White's overwhelmingly supported Roy Moore, but you have to keep in mind that at least 95 % of African -American in the state supported Doug Jones.

[84] And the African -American vote comprised, according to the exit polls, 30 % of the total electorate tonight.

[85] That could be overstating it a little bit, but when you're winning that strongly among black voters and they're in reaching towards 30 percent of the electorate, that really helps.

[86] And what about this write -in strategy that we had talked to you about over the weekend?

[87] There was this sort of extraordinary thing where Senator Richard Shelby, who, as you've explained, was once a Democrat, but is now very much a Republican, when on national TV and told voters to write in a Republican other than Roy Moore.

[88] I couldn't vote for Roy Moore.

[89] I didn't vote for Roy Moore, but I wrote in a distinguished Republican name, and I think a lot of people could do that.

[90] Will they do it?

[91] I'm not sure.

[92] And you were saying that a difference of a couple percentage points, if two percent or so of voters did that, could be meaningful.

[93] So did that happen?

[94] That's exactly what happened.

[95] So in addition to a really strong turnout among upscale whites and the state of black population, the other real problem for more, and effectively the backbreaker for more, was the fact that 1 .7%, so rounding up 2 % of this stage voters, nearly 23 ,000 people took the time to use a writing instrument on their ballot and add in the name of a third party.

[96] That's a really high number in a special election like this.

[97] Right.

[98] And if we look at the amount by which Jones won, it was around 2%.

[99] That's exactly right.

[100] So basically, the margin of victory is about equal to the number of people who wrote it at the third party's name.

[101] So why was more the Republican nominee if he was so hard for so many people the stomach?

[102] The short version, Michael, is this.

[103] He defeated a Republican in Luther Strange, who was appointed to fill the seat that was vacated by Jeff Sessions, who, of course, is now the attorney general.

[104] Luther Strange got his seat through murky circumstance, you know, murky perhaps is the best possible phrase I could use to describe it, was offered the seat by the governor of the state who was embroiled in a sex scandal of his own.

[105] And there was some suggestion of a quid pro quo between Strange, who was then the state attorney general and the disgraced governor.

[106] So what happened, Michael, was that a lot of Republicans in the state saw what they viewed as a corrupt bargain between the now former governor and the caretaker appointee in the seat.

[107] that really hurts Strange, the appointee.

[108] In comes Roy Moore, who's got a really durable base of conservative support in this state, heavily evangelical, and he was able to turn the circumstances of Strange's appointment and Stranger's ties to the kind of Washington establishment against them.

[109] Alabama has been at a crossroads.

[110] We have been at crossroads in the past, and unfortunately we have usually taken the wrong fort.

[111] Tonight, ladies and gentlemen, you took the right road.

[112] So I think because maybe the assumption was that Roy Moore was going to pull this off, a lot of us don't really know much about Doug Jones, who's now been elected to the Senate.

[113] So who is this new Democratic senator from Alabama?

[114] Well, he's most famous for being the U .S. attorney in President Clinton's second term who prosecuted the killers of the four little girls in the Birmingham Baptist Church in 1963.

[115] he brought the Birmingham bombers to justice.

[116] And that really sort of made his name in Birmingham and certainly in the state of Alabama.

[117] Other than that moment, he was basically somebody who was a prominent trial lawyer, active in democratic politics as kind of a donor and an activist, but was somebody who was certainly seen as a long shot when he got into this race, the combination of more being really detested by a large chunk of voters here.

[118] And then, of course, the allegations of these women made him a surprise winner and a U .S. senator.

[119] And, Jonathan, how did Jones position himself in this election?

[120] Was he running as a traditional Democrat or as something slightly different in Alabama?

[121] He was largely running as a traditional Democrat.

[122] He was supportive of abortion, right, even though he caught a lot of criticism for that.

[123] So for somebody running as a Democrat in the Deep South, he didn't really veered that far from party orthodoxy.

[124] What he did was try to keep this focus on Roy Moore.

[125] On Roy Moore's disturbing actions.

[126] Ivanka Trump says there's a special place in hell for people who pray on children.

[127] And I have no reason to doubt the victim's accounts.

[128] Jeff Sessions says, I have no reason to doubt these young women.

[129] And then in the end of the campaign, you know, he had the opportunity to kind of hold up Senator Shelby's rejection of Roy Moore.

[130] And I think that really helped.

[131] I think the fact that in the last few days of this campaign, Doug Jones was able to talk about the fact that the senior senator in the state was not supported the Republican nominee was a big asset.

[132] And Richard Shelby says he will absolutely not vote for Roy Moore.

[133] Conservative voices, putting children and women over party, doing what's right.

[134] And it allowed Jones to run almost that kind of a partisan candidacy in the last few days of this campaign.

[135] So I'm curious, you were with Roy Moore all day and at his campaign headquarters on Tuesday night.

[136] Did they think that they had this thing, that they were going to win?

[137] Nobody really knew for sure, whether it was Jones or more, what was it going to happen.

[138] Let's just pray.

[139] Can we just pray it right now?

[140] It was an interesting night because as the results are coming in, his lead is declining.

[141] Father, I thank you for this man of courage, who is the closest thing to a founding father that I've ever seen.

[142] And so the crowd is getting much quieter as the night goes on.

[143] They're playing a mix of devotional.

[144] music.

[145] There's a saxophonist to us playing Amazing Grace at one point.

[146] As the returns grow more grim, the crowd becomes even more subdued.

[147] Hail him who saves you by him.

[148] AP calls it.

[149] There's still no response.

[150] They're just playing hymnals and the saxophonist is doing his thing.

[151] You're an amazing crowd.

[152] Thank you for being so diligent in staying with us this evening.

[153] It's been a long evening.

[154] Finally, over an hour after the AP call, after Joe's already claimed victory up in Birmingham, Moore's campaign chairman takes the stage.

[155] But I can tell you one thing, the evening is not over yet.

[156] Introduces Moore.

[157] Judge Roy Moore.

[158] He promptly says he's not conceding in the race.

[159] You know, I really want to thank you for coming tonight and realize when the vote is this close.

[160] that it's not over.

[161] That there's still votes being counted, and that there's a state law mandating a recount when the margin is 0 .5 % or less.

[162] Here's the problem with that.

[163] At the time he was saying that, the margin was over a point, and there were still numbers to come in from Birmingham, which is obviously a very pro -Jones city.

[164] So he did, you know, obviously, had no desire to concede tonight.

[165] But the votes are still coming in, and we're looking at that.

[166] May God bless you as you go on, may you give you a safe journey, and thank you for coming tonight, which is not over, and it's going to take some time.

[167] Thank you.

[168] And there ends, the Roy Moore, Senate race.

[169] So what's the significance of Moore not conceding, and his campaign chairman suggesting there might be a mandatory recap?

[170] Does that actually hold anything up?

[171] Is it change anything?

[172] The Secretary of State in Alabama said that the Moore campaign themselves could pay for a recount, but that it was not going to happen under state law.

[173] Do you expect anything other than Mr. Jones being the next senator from the state of Alabama?

[174] Now, I would find that highly unlikely to occur, Jake.

[175] And again, the reason for that is because it's only when the margin's 0 .5 % or less, and the margin tonight is closer to 2 % than that is 0 .5.

[176] One of the things that is obviously recognized by using the equipment that we use in the elections process is that there's not a whole lot of mistakes.

[177] that are made.

[178] There's not a whole lot of errors that occur.

[179] So, Jonathan, let's talk about what this means outside of Alabama, because as big as this is in Alabama, it feels equally big in Washington.

[180] What are Republicans in Washington going to be talking about later this morning?

[181] Well, the big takeaway is that the Republican advanced in the Senate is now a single seat, and that could make it harder for them to pass their agenda.

[182] It's going to empower a lot of the more independent Republicans like Susan Collins, like Jeff Flake, who's retiring, like Bob Corker, who's retiring.

[183] So it gives them more clout and it gives him a much narrower margins here to operate with.

[184] Right.

[185] And we've watched Republicans in Congress struggle to get things done legislatively all year.

[186] It's often come down to a couple holdout Republicans, including Susan Collins, as you mentioned.

[187] And this makes the math even more difficult, right?

[188] The Senate is now 51 Republicans, 49 Democrats, meaning Republicans will only ever be able to afford losing a single vote on the big divisive issues of the day.

[189] Very narrow margin of air now for Mitch McConnell in the Senate.

[190] And it's going to frighten a lot of Republicans who are going to be on the ballot next year.

[191] Look, Democrats now have an opportunity to win back the Senate next year.

[192] It's not a great opportunity, but they have an open.

[193] because they're now just down a single seat.

[194] If they win Jeff Flake's seat in Arizona, win Dean Heller's seat in Nevada, that could be enough.

[195] They've now got some opportunities.

[196] They're still defending a lot of seats next year Democrats are.

[197] But given what happened tonight, one step closer to at least having a chance to recapture the majority of the Senate.

[198] And yet, I wonder, as bad as this is for Republicans, and for Mitch McConnell, I wonder if there's any relief among Republican leaders that?

[199] Oh, sure.

[200] If you talk to them privately, they would have told you that the best scenario in the long term for them, and the medium term for that matter, is for Jones to win.

[201] They think that they can take back the seat in 2020.

[202] They'd rather have a Democrat who will vote with them, you know, a quarter of the time, then be saddled with Roy Moore and someone who's been accused of child molestation.

[203] And all that would mean to their candidates in the midterm elections.

[204] Ah, so they assume they will eventually win this seat back, just not with Roy Moore as their guy.

[205] That's correct.

[206] They believe in a presidential year in 2020, this is a red state, they will reclaim the seat in 2020, just like Democrats did when Scott Brown was up for a full term in 2012, having won a special election in a very liberal state, and was unable to hold that seat.

[207] And how about what this means for President Trump?

[208] He came out in full support of Roy Moore in the final weeks going as far as recording a robocall for voters over the weekend.

[209] Hi, this is President Donald Trump, and I need Alabama to go vote for Roy Moore.

[210] It is so important.

[211] Saying you need to vote for this guy.

[212] He was twice rebuffed by the voters of the state.

[213] It's a very independent blaze.

[214] They don't take kindly to outsiders telling them how to vote no matter who it is.

[215] During the primary runoff, they rejected Luther Strange, who was Trump's candidate.

[216] And then tonight, they rejected Roy Moore, who Trump also endorsed full -throatedly.

[217] Finally, Jonathan, Trump was relentless in this message that it's all about the issues rather than dealing with the allegations against where.

[218] He stressed the significance of more support for core Republican issues, immigration, abortion, the Second Amendment.

[219] In this moment where it's felt like the issues legislatively are everything, what does tonight signify to you?

[220] I think tonight shows that Democrats have real energy at their backs going into the midterms, and it shows that there is a swath of middle class to upper class voters in this country, typically support Republicans who are appalled by what they see as a party that they don't recognize anymore.

[221] And they are showing that right now in special elections.

[222] They showed it in the governor's race last month in Virginia.

[223] And if you're a Republican on the ballot next year and you're running an absolute.

[224] affluent district, you should be very, very concerned.

[225] Thank you, Jonathan.

[226] All right, guys.

[227] You rock.

[228] Love you all.

[229] Bye.

[230] I am truly overwhelmed.

[231] I am truly, truly overwhelmed.

[232] But you know, folks, and you have all heard me say this at one point or another in this campaign, I have always believed that the people of Alabama had more in common than to divide us.

[233] We have shown not just around the state of Alabama, but we have shown the country the way that we can be unified.

[234] On Tuesday night, shortly before Roy Moore came out on stage and refused to concede, President Trump tweeted about the results in Alabama.

[235] Congratulations to Doug Jones on a hard -fought victory.

[236] The right -in votes played a very big factor, but a win is a win.

[237] The people of Alabama are great, and the Republicans will have another shot at this seat in a very short period of time.

[238] It never ends.

[239] We'll be right back.

[240] Here's what else you need to know today.

[241] On Tuesday, President Trump dismissed the accounts of the women coming forward for a second time with allegations that he sexually harassed them, and he attacked Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who has called on him to resign over the women's claims.

[242] In a series of tweets, President Trump said the women had fabricated their accounts and called Gillibrand a lightweight and flunky who would, quote, come to my office begging for campaign contributions not so long ago and would do anything for them.

[243] Were you offended by the apparent insinuations in the president's tweets this morning?

[244] It was a sexist smear attempting to silence my voice, and I will not be silenced on this issue.

[245] Neither will the women who stood up, up to the president yesterday.

[246] Democratic senators denounced the president's tweet, with Elizabeth Warren asking Trump in her own tweet, are you really trying to bully, intimidate, and slut -shame Senator Gillibrand?

[247] I think Gillibrand owed an apology for the misunderstanding of the president's tweet this morning because many, including the senator, thinks that it's about sexual innuendos.

[248] At the White House on Monday afternoon, Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee -Sanders was asked about the exchange.

[249] I think only if your mind is in the gutter, would you have read it that way?

[250] And so no. That's it for the Daily.

[251] I'm Michael Barbara.

[252] See you tomorrow.