Waiting for Brexit

[0] From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbar.

[1] This is the day.

[2] Today.

[3] In a humiliating last -minute move, Prime Minister Theresa May has cancelled today's historic vote on the terms of Britain's divorce from the European Union.

[4] Ellen Barry and Stephen Castle on why Britain is so frustrated by Brexit before Brexit has even begun.

[5] It's Tuesday, December 11th.

[6] The eyes to the right, 311.

[7] The nose to the left, 293.

[8] So this has been a very strange week in British politics.

[9] The eyes to the right, 311.

[10] The nose to the left, 293.

[11] So the eyes have it, the eyes have it.

[12] Unlocked.

[13] A number of things have happened that haven't happened for decades.

[14] This deal is not a plan for Britain's future.

[15] So for the good of the nation, the House has very little choice but to reject this deal.

[16] This is all sort of the unfolding drama of Theresa May's Brexit agreement.

[17] Brexit no, Brexit no, Brexit no. People have been on the streets on both sides because they're dissatisfied with what Theresa May has brought.

[18] I mean, this particular story has gone from a sort of extremely low boil to absolute bedlam.

[19] And why now?

[20] So this is the moment two and a half years after the referendum to leave the European Union, when the government has to secure the agreement of Parliament for the terms of leaving the EU.

[21] Okay, so they voted two and a half years ago to leave the EU.

[22] And now, in order to actually do that, they have to agree on how to leave.

[23] Right.

[24] But it's like it's hard to even remember that this action made anyone happy two and a half years ago because it's been such a slog.

[25] I have spoken to people who described the referendum day as the most sort of euphoric, thrilling day of their lives.

[26] And those people are all so gloomy right now.

[27] So in other words, it's been a really long two and a half years.

[28] It's been a long two and a half years.

[29] It's been grueling.

[30] So my colleague, Stephen Castle...

[31] I'm Stephen Castle.

[32] I'm a correspondent in the London Bureau.

[33] I think he hasn't written a non -Brexit story for...

[34] I don't know.

[35] That's his life.

[36] It is a completely all -consuming story because there's always a political crisis.

[37] either brewing or actually happening in Britain at the moment.

[38] So, remind me how this all began, what got Britain to this point?

[39] Yes, thinking back, it was the 23rd of June in 2016, and...

[40] Good evening and welcome at the end of this momentous day, when each one of us has had the chance to say what kind of country we want to live in.

[41] Britain's were voting on whether to leave the European Union.

[42] At 10 o 'clock, the polling stations closed after week.

[43] months, years of argument, and we'll have the answer to the question that's haunted British politics for so long.

[44] Do we want to be in or out of the EU?

[45] What I remember of that day was I came in a little late, and completely by coincidence, as I was walking to the Bureau, I happened to bump into somebody who was actually canvassing in the street, and it was an advisor to David Cameron, who was then the Prime Minister.

[46] And we had a conversation, and he assured me that Remain was.

[47] going to win the referendum.

[48] So I came into the office, pretty relaxed about what I thought was going to happen.

[49] I hereby give notice that I have certified the following.

[50] The total number of ballot papers counted was...

[51] But then the results started coming in.

[52] The total number of votes cast in favour of leave was 63 ,598.

[53] It shows the Leave campaign just a little bit behind, remain, not nearly as much behind as all the experts had been saying we should expect from Newcast.

[54] It very soon became clear that things were not going according to plan for Downing Street.

[55] The total number of votes cast in favour of leave was 82 ,000.

[56] To say these results are interesting is an understatement.

[57] As the results went on through the night, it became clearer and clearer that actually Britain had voted to leave the European Union.

[58] The British people have spoken, and the answer is we're out.

[59] Against almost everybody's expectations.

[60] And this is a vote that has huge consequences, not just for our country, but also implications for a whole continent.

[61] And it unleashes a period of huge uncertainty, maybe huge opportunity, but also maybe huge risks too.

[62] And what was the context for this referendum?

[63] How did this come to be?

[64] Well, you have to look back to the way that the European Union was founded.

[65] It was founded by six countries after the Second World War, and Britain stayed out of it for a long time.

[66] It was never really emotionally committed to this idea of European integration in the way that perhaps the French and the Germans and the Dutch, the Italians were.

[67] And Britain only really joined it because in 1973 it felt it was falling behind continental Europe.

[68] it joined it really much more for transactional reasons.

[69] And therefore, European, our whole idea of European integration never really had that same force and that same salience in British life.

[70] So the context of the referendum was that many of the conservatives have become increasingly unhappy with the direction of the European Union.

[71] And we find ourselves today part of a political union.

[72] We find most of our laws being made somewhere else.

[73] and we find it's all rather expensive, and we have open -door immigration.

[74] They felt that it was becoming much more intrusive into British life, and they felt that this surrender of sovereignty was becoming more and more and more intrusive and more unbearable for them, and it became more and more acute in the Conservative Party, which was also under pressure from some populist forces on the right.

[75] In fact, US strategists are saying that what's happening is that Britain is looking inwards, anti -immigration, looking at whether it's going to pull out of the European Union, looking at all these different areas.

[76] Britain seems to be retrenching from a global position.

[77] David Cameron, who leads the centre -right Conservative Party closest traditionally to the Republicans in the United States, he promised to hold the referendum if he was going to be re -elected.

[78] He was facing an election in 2015.

[79] He, I think, to probably his surprise, won a clear majority in that election.

[80] And...

[81] It is time for the British people to have their say.

[82] It is time for us to settle this question about Britain and Europe.

[83] Therefore, had to go through with this pledge to hold the referendum on whether or not Britain was going to stay or leave the European Union.

[84] It will be an in -out referendum.

[85] And what exactly was fueling this pressure by conservatives in his party?

[86] Well, one of the key elements of the European Union is that you can go and live anywhere in the European Union.

[87] So one of the big issues here became migration.

[88] And that really arose out of the enlargement of the European Union in 2004, when it took in 10 mainly ex -communist countries.

[89] Millions of new migrants could set foot on European soil next year, unless steps are taken immediately.

[90] And Britain became one of only three countries which didn't restrict its labour market to all these migrants.

[91] In the UK town of Boston, the number of Poles, Lithuanians and Latvians has increased sixfold in ten years.

[92] At the time it thought some migration would be good for the economy, which it probably was, but it stored up trouble for the future.

[93] They've arrived here under European Union Freedom of Movement Rules in search of work, But some locals feel overwhelmed.

[94] It's these Roma gypsies that are coming.

[95] I think there could be a problem.

[96] Yeah, that's well.

[97] Yeah, people are frightened.

[98] Britain had only expected tens of thousands of people to come, and in the end, around about a million people came.

[99] And that, in a sense, was manageable until the financial crisis when there were big strains on public services, and austerity began to bite.

[100] We literally got swamped by vast numbers of people, and our public services...

[101] Who contribute to the economy, who pay their taxes?

[102] Mostly no. Mostly no. What do you mean mostly?

[103] And as the impact of that was felt, so the issue of migration increased in the public mind in Britain.

[104] Well, I think we're getting too many people coming in, definitely.

[105] And I think a lot of the people now, who are unemployed, start to feel bitter about other people who are coming in and getting jobs.

[106] I know that of a fact.

[107] So by the time we got to 2016, Britain had been in austerity for at least six or seven years since the financial crisis.

[108] And I think there's a fear as well that, you know, they'll say one day England won't be English people here.

[109] It'll be all foreigners.

[110] So just so I understand, Stephen, hundreds of thousands of migrants from former Soviet bloc countries start coming into Britain, which causes resentment and worry over migrants taking jobs and using social services.

[111] And at the same time, there is a financial crisis, which causes the U .K. to tighten its belt across the board so that resentment and that worry about migrants gets amplified and causes major divisions in the country, which feels similar to what has happened in the United States.

[112] Exactly.

[113] Now, Cameron really had wanted to end these divisions, and he wanted to get on with his term in office and get this troublesome question of Europe.

[114] which has been nagging away at the Conservatives for, you know, two or three decades.

[115] He wanted to just get this out of the way.

[116] And I don't think he really thought there was any chance at all when he offered the referendum that Britain would vote to leave.

[117] That was not the idea at all.

[118] He wanted a clear, remain vote.

[119] So Prime Minister Cameron thought that he just needed this vote to appease some of the conservatives in his party.

[120] But he never imagined that the majority of the British people, people would actually vote to leave the European Union.

[121] That's exactly correct.

[122] Good morning, this is Michael O 'Leary, Chief Executive of Ryanair, Britain's largest airline, calling on all of our passengers here in the UK, vote remain for the EU.

[123] Look, there is no question that it is riskier for us to leave the EU than it is to stay.

[124] We benefit from the workers that come in from the EU.

[125] We need them.

[126] They are doing a lot of important jobs around the city.

[127] But for many people, voting against the European Union membership became the ultimate protest vote.

[128] It was a way of saying the situation that we have at the moment, the economic settlement that we have, the divisions in terms of wealth, this cannot continue in the country.

[129] Now this is a once -in -a -lifetime chance for us to take back control of this country.

[130] Can you hear me at the back?

[131] Yay!

[132] Because the organisation that we belong to now, the European Union, has changed out of all recognition.

[133] The great slogan of the campaign was take back control.

[134] And I think that really was a brilliant piece of marketing because it's suggested that Britain could have this role.

[135] It could have its cake and eating.

[136] They're running our country down.

[137] We can take back our country and the government of our country.

[138] I hope you'll all get to it, folks.

[139] It's the most exciting campaign any of us have ever been involved in.

[140] It was a very, very crude campaign.

[141] There was really very little public information about the complexities of the European Union, the way it worked, it structures.

[142] And therefore, by placing a lot of emphasis on sovereignty, on regaining some power and regaining control, it gave Britain's the idea that they could actually restore some national pride, some control over their lives and over things like immigration without any cost at all.

[143] And that has proved to be not the case at all.

[144] What do you mean?

[145] What I mean is that the next two and a half years have been one political crisis after another political crisis.

[146] A complete meltdown in British politics, which has exposed fault lines everywhere, and which has led Britain to the edge of a complete nervous breakdown.

[147] I'm quite a shocked, to be honest.

[148] I thought we all would have stayed in.

[149] But I think it's bad, to be honest, man. I'm really thoroughly upset, disappointed, disgusted by what's happened.

[150] Like everyone that lives in London, it's like a little bubble.

[151] On the outside world, especially like regional places.

[152] It's quite right wing.

[153] And it's really, really scary for our generation.

[154] Mostly with older people who voted for Brexit and it'll be young people who have to live with it in the future.

[155] I think it's a disastrous move.

[156] I think people are just trying to reclaim how Great Britain was.

[157] I think it's just stupid.

[158] Like they're still living in the past, man. It's too bad.

[159] it even more intriguing is that nobody knows how it's going to turn out.

[160] We'll be right back.

[161] It's almost like the terms of a divorce.

[162] Do you want a divorce where you still have to coordinate on much of your family business?

[163] Or do you want a divorce where you really don't talk to each other much?

[164] I mean, how complete is this severing?

[165] And that's something that the British people have never agreed on.

[166] Hello, and welcome to the Red Box podcast on The Times.

[167] I'm Matt Chorley.

[168] What a mess.

[169] Where shall we start?

[170] Well, there's the referendum result that no one predicted, the 17 million people giving two fingers to the establishment, the crashing pound, the downgraded economy, the racist attacks, Boris Johnson, suddenly loving immigration again, are the Lib Dems really enjoying a revival?

[171] And that's without even touching on the Labour Party hitting the self -destruct button, with Jeremy Corbyn like a cockroach which just refuses to die.

[172] In the aftermath of the result, The pound fell as confidence in Britain declined in the international markets.

[173] We were warned of the consequences of a leave vote, and they've been immediate and dramatic.

[174] The stock market's in turmoil.

[175] The pound is at a 30 -year low against the dollar.

[176] David Cameron came out and resigned.

[177] His voice cracking, he choked back tears as he confirmed that after six years that he would now stand down as Prime Minister.

[178] I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.

[179] So what do you think?

[180] Where are we in 12 months time?

[181] Then the question was, who's going to lead the country?

[182] We'll definitely have a new Prime Minister.

[183] Probably Boris.

[184] I think that's the most likely outcome.

[185] A lot of people expected a prominent Brexit supporter, particularly Boris Johnson.

[186] Sorry, you, Emma.

[187] Who do you think that that will be?

[188] But his campaign imploded.

[189] Think it might be Theresa May. Well, it was Theresa May. Mrs May is known inside her own party as a tough negotiator.

[190] Indeed, even though she was formally against leaving the EU, many suspect her heart was never really in the European projects.

[191] Somebody who kept a very low profile throughout the whole Brexit campaign.

[192] As we leave the European Union, we will forge a bold, new, positive role for ourselves in the world.

[193] That will be the mission of the government I lead.

[194] And together, we will build a better Britain.

[195] Only then was the stage set for negotiations to begin on Brexit.

[196] Right.

[197] The question was, how was Britain supposed to disentangle itself from this decades -long relationship?

[198] Exactly.

[199] It's a year since the UK voted to leave the EU.

[200] And now the first in a string of monthly week -long meetings.

[201] And what was that process like?

[202] Negotiations have covered a whole range of topics.

[203] Frankly, for journalists, this was almost.

[204] Almost like watching paint drying from legal exit mechanisms.

[205] Backstop arrangement to stop the border in Northern Ireland.

[206] Possible tariff barriers.

[207] Rights of passporting for banks.

[208] Galileo Satnav system.

[209] The arrangements of the Port of Dover.

[210] Really almost incomprehensible legalese.

[211] Could pharmaceuticals?

[212] Some essential drugs be rationed.

[213] Ration the space on ferries crossing the English Channel.

[214] To the car industry.

[215] reports that the British Army might have to be on the streets if there were no deal.

[216] Right.

[217] I mean, this does feel exhausting for people to process.

[218] I mean, you can only imagine how dull and draining and sapping of morale it has been for the British public to hear to news reports about negotiations about which people understand very little.

[219] And not surprisingly, most of the public has tuned out of most of this.

[220] Yeah, I mean, it makes you want to fall off your chair in a dead slump.

[221] Well, let's get more on that, on the issue of Brexit, the leader of Northern Ireland.

[222] I can remember going to one briefing where the discussion was all about the backstop to the backstop.

[223] And there's still no way through when it comes to the so -called Irish backstop, a way to guarantee no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland if a suitable trade arrangement isn't in place.

[224] I think the backstop to the backstop to the backstop.

[225] stop was the moment that people started thinking, this is really getting too intricate.

[226] It's certainly been a bit of a long trek for all of us, hasn't it?

[227] I'm tired, I'm worried, and I'm upset.

[228] As I say, I really don't know how it's going to end, but I don't think it's going to end as we hoped it would do when we voted.

[229] There is a real sense of national fatigue, and I think people are just utterly.

[230] fed up with the subject.

[231] Nobody's got the first idea, absolutely culpably, nobody's got the first idea what they want.

[232] In fact, they disagree on what they want.

[233] On Brexit, they don't know nothing about it.

[234] Who knows about Brexit?

[235] No one's got to a fucking clue what Brexit is, yeah?

[236] You watch Question Time.

[237] It's comedy.

[238] Well, you know clearer when Jeremy Corbyn No, I got the clue.

[239] No one knows what it is.

[240] It's like this mad riddled.

[241] No one knows what it is, what?

[242] But I just have one key question about Brexit.

[243] What is it?

[244] Seriously?

[245] What is it?

[246] It's just that it's happening in just over a year, and we don't really know what it involves.

[247] So, where are we in all of this Brexit process?

[248] You know what?

[249] People like me are paid, aren't we, to have insight and foresight and hindsight about these things and to be able to project where we're going to go.

[250] To be quite honest, looking at things right now, I haven't got the foggiest idea what is going to happen in the coming weeks.

[251] Is the Prime Minister going to get a deal with the year?

[252] I don't know.

[253] Is she going to be able to get it through the commons?

[254] Don't know about that either.

[255] I think you might as well get Mr. Blubby back on.

[256] More than two and a half years after the referendum, Breton has been talking about almost nothing in terms of its domestic politics.

[257] Since 2016, we have a government which really has done almost nothing to address the causes of this referendum result because it's been arguing about the access to Europe's single market.

[258] It's been arguing about tariff arrangements.

[259] It's been arguing about checks of the border.

[260] So the British public is pretty fed up of this.

[261] Britain is one step closer to making Brexit a reality, striking a draft deal with Brussels over the terms of its departure from the European Union.

[262] So then what happened?

[263] So after this two and a half year process of just excruciatingly difficult negotiation, Finally, Theresa May managed to land this agreement.

[264] And with permission, I would like to make a statement on the conclusion of our negotiations to leave the European Union.

[265] She managed to land on an agreement that the EU would sign off on.

[266] It takes back control of our borders.

[267] It ends the free movement of people in full once and for all, allowing the government to introduce a new skills -based immigration system.

[268] It takes back control of our laws.

[269] It ends the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK.

[270] Instead, our laws being made in our parliaments enforced by our courts.

[271] And it takes back control of our money.

[272] All she needs to do is get it past her own parliament, and then she will really be through the most difficult part of this job that she was elected for.

[273] Once the final deal is agreed, I will bring it to Parliament, and I will ask MPs to consider the national interest and give it their backing.

[274] The problem is everyone hates it So Mr Speaker the choice is clear We can choose to leave with no deal We can risk no Brexit at all Or we can choose I choose to deliver for the British people I choose to do what is in our national interest And I commend this statement to the House No one's happy We don't want a future that betrays the hopes and dreams of our young people who overwhelmingly want to stay inside the European Union.

[275] We deserve better than that, and that is why we are demanding a people's vote.

[276] We voted to leave, and that's not been respected.

[277] The best thing I think would be if it's voted down.

[278] So Remainers don't like it because they don't want to leave the European Union in the first place.

[279] They're hard -line Brexiteers.

[280] They don't like it because it leaves Britain in too many of the European structures.

[281] People who want a softer break don't like it because it removes the country from too many of those structures.

[282] Our own government has brought back a so -called deal that ties us even more to the European Union, but takes away our representation.

[283] It is not Brexit at all, and they're pretending that it is.

[284] And so we're here to highlight the betrayal.

[285] I'm genuinely heartbreaking by the entire thing.

[286] We're no longer United Kingdom.

[287] We have a deeply divided country.

[288] I think that's really terrifying.

[289] So really, Ellen, this sounds like a compromise that isn't truly working for anyone in Britain.

[290] I mean, I think what was behind Brexit was the expectation that somehow it was going to lead Britain into some bright, shiny, new era of sovereignty and greatness.

[291] One of the phrases that started going around a couple weeks ago when she released her plan to the public is, we've got to shoot the unicorns.

[292] And what was meant by that is all of these sort of hopes and dreams about the outcomes of Brexit, they weren't supported by the data.

[293] They never were.

[294] People had great hopes that leaving the European Union would solve a lot of the economic problems that they were seeing in their lives.

[295] They thought there would be fewer immigrants taking jobs.

[296] They thought there would be better funding for social services like the NHS.

[297] And I think you can string the public along on those hopes and dreams for a certain amount of time and then you have to level with them.

[298] And so in a sense, this compromise is the process of leveling with people.

[299] Yeah, this is shooting the unicorns.

[300] He's fucking push my like that.

[301] He's broke right out.

[302] He won't get out.

[303] He won't break out.

[304] Stephen, does everything that you're describing, all of this anger and frustration, the fatigue, is that a reflection of a nation that regrets Brexit outright, that wishes it had never decided to leave the EU?

[305] Or is this more of a dissatisfaction with this inevitably ugly, complicated process of carrying out Brexit?

[306] I think it's probably a reflection of a country that is stuck.

[307] It took a decision in 2016, probably not knowing precisely what it was doing.

[308] But how do you get out of that situation?

[309] Nobody's found a sensible route out of this.

[310] And this gives the sense that actually, at the moment, unfortunately, there is no good outcome to Brexit.

[311] Is it a tempting concept for Brits to think about passing this, absolutely less than ideal agreement.

[312] If it finally means that the country will just get on with this and never have to talk about Brexit again, just kind of pull off this Band -Aid, reveal a pretty ugly, not quite scabbed over wound, but get it over with.

[313] I think this is really very much Theresa May's argument and very much her hope.

[314] The trouble is that actually her agreement in terms of Britain's relationship with the European Union on future trade is extremely vague.

[315] And that means that even if her deal is passed, this will mean years, if not decades, more of discussion about future trade ties and all the different ramifications of the relationship.

[316] And therefore, Britain hasn't moved on at all since 2016.

[317] If anything, it's probably moved back.

[318] It sounds like you're describing Brexit as a process that will occur in perpetuity.

[319] There never really will be a full Brexit.

[320] Well, I think that's certainly, under Theresa May's plans, it's very hard to see this issue resolved within the next decade.

[321] Wow.

[322] And all the time, the British public, I think, will be getting more and more frustrated and probably coming to the conclusion that they don't like their new relationship with the European Union any more than they like the old one.

[323] In a sense, that means that this will be probably a kind of never -ending process of Britain constantly questioning how it should be related to the European Union and never quite reaching that ideal solution.

[324] And that's the danger here that Britain finds itself stuck in this fruitless discussion that goes on and on for years and years about its destiny and its relationship with the European Union.

[325] On Monday, in a speech to members of Parliament, Theresa May acknowledged that her proposal for leaving the EU was certain to be defeated by a wide margin.

[326] We will therefore defer the vote scheduled for tomorrow and not proceed to divide the House at this time.

[327] May now says she will seek to renegotiate the terms of Brexit with the leaders of the EU who have already rejected that possibility saying the current plan represents their final offer.

[328] The only alternative, the EU says, is for Britain to leave the Union without an agreement in place, a prospect that could cause economic chaos across Europe.

[329] Does this House want to deliver Brexit?

[330] If the House does, does it want to do so through reaching an agreement with the EU?

[331] If the answer is yes, and I believe that is the answer of the majority of this House, then we all have to ask ourselves whether we're prepared to make a compromise, because there will be no enduring and successful Brexit without some compromise on both sides of the debate.

[332] Here's what else you need to know today.

[333] Frenches, French.

[334] We're here, we're all together of our country and of our future.

[335] In a nationally televised speech on Monday, France's president, Emmanuel Macron, responded to weeks of violent protests across the country with a plan to improve the economic standing of France's middle and working class.

[336] These violence will be beneficier of any indulgence.

[337] We have all seen.

[338] McCrone has been under mounting pressure to act, after demonstrations that started over a proposed increase in fuel taxes, morphed into a broader rebuke of his government by those who see it as elitist and unresponsive.

[339] In his speech, Macron announced a tax cut and wage increase for many in France, acknowledged his own failure to act, and called the situation across the country, a quote, state of social and economic emergency.

[340] That's it for the daily.

[341] I'm Michael Barbaro.

[342] See you tomorrow.