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After a brutal December, Dan Ferris rings in the New Year and addresses the question every investor is wondering: Where will the stock market go in 2019?

The best way to predict the future, he says, is to understand the present – and that starts with what he calls “the most expensive moment in the history of the stock market” which we saw just last fall.

It’s been costlier for investors than any equivalent moment in the Dot.com collapse or the 2008 crisis – and it’s the best indicator Dan’s seen of where stocks are right now. “If history rhymes… within two years, you see a big fat hairy bottom. Normal levels would be 60%.”

“There’s a lot of downside left if history rhymes.”

Later on, they’re joined by Mark B. Spiegel. Mark is the Managing Member & Portfolio Manager of Stanphyl Capital Partners and is a New York-based equity investor.

Prior to founding Stanphyl in 2011, he spent six years as an investment banker financing public companies. Prior to becoming an investment banker Mark spent a year working for a microcap Nasdaq tech company, and he began his career with 17 years in the commercial real estate industry where he experienced firsthand the opportunities and challenges faced by a wide array of client companies.

Mark believes that all these experiences– banking public companies, working for a public company and securing real estate for a wide variety of companies– combine to provide the kind of “real world” experience that’s extremely useful for an investor.

The Costliest Moment for Investors in History