2025 Relief Pitcher Preview

[0] Hey everybody, it's Diana Rossini from the Scoop City Podcast.

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[5] Welcome to Raising Barrels.

[6] It's Tuesday, February 4th.

[7] Derek Van Riper, Eno Saris here with you.

[8] It is position preview season finale.

[9] It is the reliever preview for 2025.

[10] The last in our long series of position previews.

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[12] That's probably the other way to go about it.

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[18] If you'd like to participate in our Hive Mind rankings for 2025, you can do that in our Discord.

[19] You can join our Discord with the link in the show description.

[20] Look for the Hive Mind rankings channel once you're inside and grab the form, get the relievers ranked, get all the other positions ranked we've covered so far.

[21] We'll turn those rankings around here in a couple of weeks and share those to the listener rankings.

[22] So a lot of fun to see where everybody listening to this show is at.

[23] on this group of players here as we enter the 2025 season.

[24] You know, these episodes have been a blast.

[25] They have been running long, so we will skip the pleasantries and go right into the first tier of relievers.

[26] And I made this a large tier because I think you have a main question that you have to answer when it comes to attacking saves as a category in a rotisserie league.

[27] You have to decide just what point in the draft are you comfortable...

[28] Drafting a closer.

[29] How early are you actually willing to go into this bucket?

[30] And it's a group that includes Emmanuel Classé, Devin Williams, Josh Hader, Mason Miller, Edwin Diaz, Ryan Helsley.

[31] And Rysel Iglesias.

[32] And even within that group, I think people listening are saying, wait, wait, wait.

[33] There's at least one or two guys in that group that aren't quite like the others in terms of strikeout rate.

[34] They probably don't belong in the conversation.

[35] The reason they're all lumped together by ADP last two weeks, they're all inside the top 75 overall.

[36] So if you think about it in terms of a 15 -team league, that's in the first five rounds that you're taking a closer.

[37] Are you comfortable paying that price to get...

[38] anybody in that group at all knowing that it costs you a high -end starting pitcher or a really well -established bat if you're going to go that route this is a very context specific question because in a draft and hold you have no free agency you have to get your all your saves from your draft day and so i think you have to at least get the least acceptable first tier you know reliever you have to get one of those It's just the price of entry.

[39] And so what you'll see is the best relievers get pushed up pretty hard in draft and hold.

[40] Now, if you're in a 10 -team league with saves and holds, no. Like, I don't care.

[41] Like, I'll just get a couple mid -tier guys, you know, because there's names that are not in this first tier that I like that I'm even taking in draft and holds as my first.

[42] That's a little clue that there's somebody missing, I think, from this first tier by ADP.

[43] And then there's the answers in between.

[44] I just generally, what I don't want to be, I don't want to be first.

[45] I'm not taking the first one.

[46] I just think that relievers are guys, their whole careers are a collection of small samples.

[47] If I gave you a starter that threw 55 innings last year, And wanted you to tell me something about how good they'd be.

[48] You know, we try and we do our best here.

[49] But would you feel as good as if you had 180 innings?

[50] No. So like, you know, we have these guys who pop on the scene.

[51] We have our tools like Stuff Plus.

[52] We do our best to kind of divine how they'll do.

[53] And then sometimes even an Edwin Diaz will just have a season where you're just like, what?

[54] You remember that season?

[55] What did he have?

[56] Like a 4 .8 or something?

[57] A couple extra homers can go a really long way when you're talking about 50, 60 innings in most cases.

[58] Yeah, the first season with the Mets after the famed Edwin Diaz, Jared Kelnick blockbuster.

[59] This is who we traded for?

[60] A .559 ERA.

[61] Easily the worst of his career.

[62] Yeah, it was absurd.

[63] He had 2 .33 homers per nine.

[64] He's never been close to that before.

[65] It was almost a full homer over his previous high, and in the years since then, I don't think he's come within like half of that mark, except for maybe this year was barely within half of that mark.

[66] That's how bad the home run rate was for Edwin Diaz in 2019, his first season with the Mets.

[67] But the top end of this group, Emmanuel Class A's ADP in the last two weeks is pick 42.

[68] That's very, very early.

[69] I'm definitely not going that early, even in draft and holds for Class A. I'm out.

[70] And I'm saying this about someone that I think is really good.

[71] Even in a historical context, Emmanuel Classé is one of three relievers in the wildcard era.

[72] So this goes back to 1995 with 250 or more innings pitched, a sub -2 ERA, and a sub -1 whip over their first five seasons combined.

[73] Can you guess the other two?

[74] I know your day is going so well.

[75] I want to start you off with some trivia.

[76] Who are the other two since 1995?

[77] Because I'm so good at it.

[78] So the other two relievers that did what?

[79] 250 innings pitched.

[80] Sub -2 ERA, sub -1 whip over their first five big league seasons.

[81] And it starts in 95.

[82] So they're recent guys.

[83] Like Moe or Wagner?

[84] Not Moe, not Wagner.

[85] Wow.

[86] Craig Kimbrell.

[87] Oh.

[88] And Jonathan Papelbon.

[89] Wow, I wouldn't.

[90] I might have guessed Kimbrell because I kind of, I like him.

[91] And I don't think he'll get to the Hall of Fame, but I think he might get some votes and be on there for a little bit.

[92] You know, he's.

[93] We always remember the end of Reliever's career.

[94] Yeah, he had a Hall of Fame start to his career, at the very least.

[95] And I think there will be arguments about that later, for sure.

[96] Yeah, one thing I want to point out about just taking the last question you gave me about why wouldn't I, and then putting Class A into it.

[97] Class A was worth $28 last year if you use a 15 -team auction calculator.

[98] And $28 versus Tarek Skubal was the best starter at $48.

[99] If Class A was a starter, he would have been the 10th best starter tied with Dylan Cease.

[100] And that's obviously worth buying and that is the best closer.

[101] But then generally, you know, there were three $20 closers and there were 25 $20 starters.

[102] So just with that value proposition, that's why I tend to, you know, fade them.

[103] Now, yes, would it be nice to know that I draft Emmanuel Class A this year and get, you know, a $28 closer when everybody else is piddling around with $10 closers?

[104] Yes, that would be really great.

[105] The one problem is that Emmanuel Class A's workload has been pretty hefty.

[106] You're talking about three straight years of 70 plus innings.

[107] And that doesn't even count the postseason, which is another sort of 14 innings on top of that.

[108] So that's some of the most workload that we've seen in the last three years among relievers.

[109] What are we talking about here in terms of the most workload as a reliever?

[110] Manuel Classe, 219 .2.

[111] Tyler Rogers, 220.

[112] I mean, I don't know.

[113] I don't know if you can even put them in the same.

[114] And Tyler Rogers is throwing 83.

[115] Colossae is throwing 103.

[116] Tanner Scott at 212.

[117] Brian Abreu at 210.

[118] So it's kind of rarefied air.

[119] In terms of health outcomes, Tanner Scott's been all right.

[120] Brian Abreu has been all right.

[121] Griffin Jacks is up there has been all right.

[122] Chris Stratton has not been okay.

[123] Kyle Finnegan is up there.

[124] Scott Barlow.

[125] Brent Suter.

[126] Some of these hybrid guys, I guess.

[127] But I guess you don't have to call for injury just because of the workload.

[128] It is a pretty hefty workload combined with a really high velocity that makes me a little bit nervous about his health.

[129] Yeah, I mean, the stuff is electric.

[130] We've seen that forever.

[131] The home run rate is tidy, and that is part of why Emmanuel Class 8 does what he does because he's so hard to square up.

[132] He doesn't strike nearly as many guys out as you'd expect for someone who throws as hard as he does.

[133] It's kind of a jarring thing.

[134] Even the swinging strike rate seems a little high.

[135] A little high relative to the actual strikeout rate that he puts up.

[136] I think that's part of the problem I have with him.

[137] More so than the workload is that if I were going to take a closer this early, I want a 40 % strikeout rate.

[138] I want the possibility of 100 strikeouts in 60 innings.

[139] And Klasse has just shown us he's not that guy, even though he's been phenomenal.

[140] You're going to get 65 strikeouts probably, maybe 70.

[141] And that's a big difference.

[142] Three straight seasons with 40 -plus saves, job security is A++ +, so I understand why some people are doing it, but I am not on board for the reasons we outlined.

[143] Devin Williams heading to the Bronx for his walk year after a tough -blown save in his final appearance as a brewer.

[144] Another guy that doesn't really give up homers, gave one up at the worst possible time, but he still looks elite.

[145] I mean, coming off that back injury last year, I saw really the same guy.

[146] Devin Williams has a 39 .4 % K rate for his career.

[147] That, to me, is a big difference.

[148] That comes with a high walk rate, too, because there's points when the feel for the fastball or the airbender might not be there, command might be a little wobbly, and guys just lay off and he issues walks, but he's had an 11 .8 % walk rate for his whole career.

[149] He's got a sub two ERA and a near one whip and that big strikeout rate.

[150] Any concerns about the move into Yankee Stadium other than the ballpark being tougher?

[151] I don't know what's really different about Devin Williams as we approach 2025.

[152] I mean, he's always had really minuscule home run rates other than, you know, just your memory of him in the playoffs.

[153] I mean, that was.

[154] That was like, I forget what the stat was, but they were like, oh, that's the first home run he's given up to a right -hander.

[155] And you're like, what?

[156] And how many years?

[157] I don't know what it was, but it was very surprising.

[158] And I love him in terms of on the field success.

[159] But if there was a Tyler Glass now or Jacob deGrom of closing, I would have to give him that after topping out at 60 innings in the last three years and undergoing different.

[160] arm maladies and back maladies he might strike out 65 batters this year too in 40 innings and there is one projection that sort of agrees with me zips says 44 innings 30 saves and how many strikeouts 61 so what would he be worth compared to class a if he did that a little bit less might still be worth his price but This is where I kind of go off the beaten path a little bit.

[161] This is a little bit of speculation, but I just think that the action on that pitch of his is unhealthy.

[162] You're just worried about the airbender and long -term implications that throwing that pitch has on his arm.

[163] Yeah, and I hate to wade into non -science.

[164] I always like to try to have scientific background for what I'm saying.

[165] What I have is anecdotal at best.

[166] dallas braden talking about how his screwball messed up his arm and his his shoulder and just to some extent just watching him do it like if you watch it in slow motion and stuff i feel like i'm just like yeah i don't know if people don't know what i'm talking about like He throws a changeup, which you normally kind of, if you're watching on YouTube, you kind of pronate on a changeup where you're kind of going down towards your index finger, right?

[167] And everyone pronates a little bit, so it's not unhealthy to pronate.

[168] But what he does is like a hyper pronation, like a super pronation.

[169] What he does is he kind of starts on the other side of the ball, and then this is what he's doing.

[170] He's really aggressively pulling down on that side and throwing it like 88 miles an hour.

[171] I don't know.

[172] Part of me just yelps every time I see it.

[173] And it's an amazing pitch, and I love it.

[174] But I do think it's tied in with his injury problems.

[175] I would take Williams over Class A. I will not draft either of them at their current NFBC prices in most circumstances right now.

[176] A former brewer sits right there behind them in Josh Hader.

[177] We've talked a lot about the uniqueness of Josh Hader's fastball on this show.

[178] It's something Trevor kind of pointed out in great detail.

[179] Houston pushed that workload a little bit harder.

[180] for Josh Hader in year one of that long -term deal.

[181] ERA crept up to 380.

[182] The whip was still down at .96.

[183] He was over 100 Ks.

[184] It's the fourth time in his career that Josh Hader has racked up 100 or more strikeouts in a season.

[185] 30 -plus saves every full season, each of the last five full seasons.

[186] So it's kind of like the Class A consistency by role and usage with added Ks.

[187] Another guy with a higher walk rate, but it comes in a much older package, right?

[188] We're talking about a guy that's going to be 31 in April, but I'm not really seeing much of a decline in Josh Hader's stuff.

[189] I think we're just seeing pretty typical variants for a guy that has regular closer command.

[190] Yeah, he has an Edwin Diaz season on his record, too, a 5 -2 -2 ERA in 2022, and I think that was just poor command.

[191] You know, there were some slipping mechanics.

[192] He ironed that out eventually.

[193] I could see making Hayter my number one.

[194] There's a case we made, even in those sort of 10 and 12 league teams, leagues, or saves league, you just want one of the best, the very best.

[195] And this is the first time that I might be tempted to kind of jump in and be like, yeah, I'll make this guy my champion.

[196] I know that he didn't strike a guy out in the postseason.

[197] He looked mortal.

[198] But again, that's tied a little bit to the regular season, and those innings don't count for most of us.

[199] You don't have to worry about playoff innings in most fantasy leagues.

[200] Still averaging 96 -1, though, on that sinker.

[201] I was looking at the VLO being like, did it drop?

[202] No, not really.

[203] I wonder if he'll eventually throw a changeup or something a little more often as he ages, right?

[204] If he loses a tick on the fastball or two ticks over time, if a third pitch ends up being the wrinkle that Hayter brings into the equation.

[205] Yeah, and also, like, you know, he benefits from deception in a way where he kind of throws what spins like a sinker and acts like a foreseam from a weird arm slot.

[206] And, you know, you wonder if over time, the more you see that, can you get better at it?

[207] There is some evidence that batters get better at pitchers over the course of seeing them.

[208] The one thing you could say is, like, you know, Mo's pitch was pretty unique, you know.

[209] And he just kept throwing it.

[210] But the difference is Mo had elite command.

[211] He did.

[212] And Hayter doesn't.

[213] And so Hayter can't always put it where he needs to put it.

[214] And so I do think maybe a cutter or something.

[215] Just something in between the fastball and slider so that people can't start to see him really well and figure him out.

[216] Let's talk about Mason Miller for a couple of minutes.

[217] He goes up in this range too.

[218] And I was thinking about this just from a...

[219] Who do I think is the best closer in baseball?

[220] If I could choose anyone to be my primary ninth inning option.

[221] And you knew he was going to give you 70 innings or 65 innings.

[222] Then that's the part where you're like, oh, if I don't have that guarantee, is it still Mason Miller?

[223] I mean, look, there's an occupational hazard to averaging 101 .1 on your fastball.

[224] That's the part that has me jittery.

[225] But even on an A's team that we thought was pretty.

[226] Gross on paper going into last season.

[227] He racked up 28 saves.

[228] That team's clearly getting better.

[229] And I think Miller does tick the box of, well, how many top -tier closers can strike out 100 guys in a season?

[230] He is absolutely on that list.

[231] Might even lead this entire group in Ks.

[232] And I was not surprised looking back at the Sierra leaderboard for this top tier from 2024.

[233] Mason Miller had a Sierra below two.

[234] That'll happen when you have a 41 .8 % K rate, a pretty healthy 8 .4 % walk rate, and you really don't have a home run problem.

[235] 0 .83 homers per night is absolutely fine.

[236] It really is a health question.

[237] Otherwise, if you could guarantee me that, Mason Miller is the first closer off the board for me 10 times out of 10 times if I'm going to go down that road.

[238] Mason Miller has the best ERA projection if you include his Stuff Plus, his oopsie ERA 221.

[239] Number two and number three are not in this tier.

[240] So that's the only reason I might still hold out on this tier.

[241] There are two elite pitchers that are not in this tier.

[242] But Mason Miller is pretty exciting.

[243] I love him.

[244] Yeah.

[245] And the reason we're focusing on these guys, because sometimes they fall, not everyone plays in the NFBC.

[246] There's also the, if you're playing in an auction setting, you have to decide, are you going to spend 18, 20, 22, 24, 25 bucks, whatever it usually spends to get one of these guys.

[247] I tend to be comfortable allocating budget that way toward a top closer, more than a third or fourth round draft pick in the current landscape.

[248] Yeah.

[249] And I think this is why.

[250] I think you're right.

[251] And we don't do enough auction strategy.

[252] But one thing that I did in labor early on was I was always like, well, my values don't spit anything out like what they do in the room on closers.

[253] So I was always like, I'll just get some guys, you know, and it didn't really work that well.

[254] You know, I would I would pay I would pay like $10 for the like the 21st best closer, you know, just like, yay, maybe it'll be OK.

[255] And what I realized after a while was.

[256] Oh, you know, the best guys in the auction room don't get separated by much.

[257] No, they get lumped together.

[258] There's almost like this $18 level.

[259] That was AL labor.

[260] I don't want to say that's true for all of yours, but you'll see it.

[261] Maybe you can go back in your last year's results if you want to in your auction.

[262] You'll see, oh, wait.

[263] So the fifth best guy was $18, and the fourth best guy was $19, and the third best guy was $19, and the second best guy was $20, and the first best guy was $21?

[264] Wait, so I only have to pay $3 more to get the best closer?

[265] There's a tax.

[266] Yeah.

[267] The dollars to draft pick value just don't translate perfectly in the relief pool.

[268] That's the way I see it.

[269] They do seem, in most of the auctions I've been in, they are...

[270] tightly packed together the way you describe.

[271] There are a couple of leagues I played in where the top end will get up to even $28 or $30.

[272] Those are deeper mixed leagues, 15, 16 team mixed leagues sometimes.

[273] That's a harder decision to make then because you realize in that case, the end game is going to be really nice.

[274] If closers are getting bumped up that high above projected values because the projections will spit out.

[275] 24, 25 at the most.

[276] Having an extra dollar to bid $2 on somebody else's $1 a couple times could actually be worth a lot.

[277] Right.

[278] Because I've also noticed in those same leagues, spending at every top end part of every position is like that.

[279] Goes nuts.

[280] It's not just the closers.

[281] So you get to kind of read it relative to what else is happening.

[282] So you could get a $35 guy also later for $30 because people are starting to run out of money.

[283] Yeah.

[284] Yeah, you can do really well.

[285] I mean, you could actually port this over to a snake strategy and say, why doesn't that follow in snake?

[286] If there's just a tax to buy the best reliever, then why not just buy the best reliever?

[287] And I would just answer, I just want to pay the least tax.

[288] So in the example of 18 to 21, I'm not buying the 21.

[289] I'm buying the 18 or 19 because I'm paying the least tax and still getting one of the top four.

[290] And that's my theory here too, is I can save, in auction, I can save those $3 for the end game.

[291] and still get one of the best closers.

[292] And in Snake, I can wait three rounds.

[293] And that can be three players.

[294] That can be worth even more than an auction to wait.

[295] Let's look at the last three in this tier for a moment.

[296] Edwin Diaz coming off the torn ACL.

[297] A .352 ERA, a .104 whip, 84 Ks in 53 and two -thirds innings.

[298] Only 20 saves.

[299] Kind of a surprise there.

[300] I don't see any threats to his job.

[301] He's still in the midst of a five -year, $102 million contract.

[302] Kind of a big downturn in Velo, though.

[303] Yeah, so that's the part that I was going to ask you about, is he lost about a tick and a half on the fastball.

[304] He went from 99 -1 pre -knee injury to 97 -6.

[305] That's still...

[306] I think what it is is the maximum peak ceilings, the 44 % and 45 % K rates we saw from Diaz.

[307] 50 % in 2022.

[308] 50%.

[309] He's talking about 50%.

[310] So we're probably not getting back to that level again.

[311] But guess what?

[312] If you're still averaging 97 .6 on your fastball, you could still probably run a 33 % or a 35 % K rate.

[313] And that holds up fine in this group.

[314] So he's going to lag behind Mason Miller and Devin Williams maybe, but that's about it.

[315] And then the job security being where it is, the health being kind of a fluky injury that wasn't shoulder, wasn't elbow.

[316] Yeah, I kind of would give him a better health grade than Williams, I think.

[317] I mean, I'm more worried about Devin Williams having a setback with his back given the nature of that injury than I am Edwin Diaz having problems with a surgically repaired ACL on his knee.

[318] I don't think.

[319] Yeah, I think so.

[320] I agree.

[321] Also, fifth best oopsie ERA, PPERA, whatever you want to call it.

[322] So I'm still elite by that measure.

[323] I'm in.

[324] If I waited around and got Edwin Diaz, I'm in.

[325] ADP, just for context, about pick 60 right after Mason Miller.

[326] If they're right next to each other and you say, you have to take a closer, otherwise.

[327] You can't play.

[328] Okay, I'll take Mason Miller if those are the rules.

[329] Weird league.

[330] Don't want to play in a league quite like that.

[331] Ryan Helsley gets lumped in right here too, though.

[332] This is where I think there's a little bit of a gap.

[333] I think Helsley should be a tick behind the rest.

[334] He's already 30, which is surprising because he broke in a little late.

[335] He's a free agent after the season.

[336] The main thing that I'm worried about is if the Cardinals don't hang around in the NL Central or the NL wildcard race.

[337] As a pending free agent, Helsley could get traded and pretty easily not close somewhere else.

[338] Not because he's not good, but because teams that are contending usually have someone, multiple someones that are really good in the back end of the game.

[339] So compared to the other guys in this group, you may be getting two -thirds of a season's worth of saves just because I think he's a little bit unique in that he could be the most likely to get moved and lose his job of this entire group.

[340] He still has a top 15 projection, his 12th best ERA projection.

[341] I kind of disagree a little bit.

[342] I think he would close almost anywhere he was traded.

[343] I mean, he's elite, unless he got traded to the Mets, I guess, you know, or, you know, somebody else on our list ahead of him.

[344] But one thing that was weird was for a while, he wasn't doing back -to -backs.

[345] I believe that might have been 2023.

[346] Last year, he did one, two, three, four, he didn't do many four five so we're talking about a handful of back -to -backs over the course of the season so he's you know when you look up and you say oh you know he's he had 66 innings that's fine that's volume but that could be your case for co -closers if he ends up somewhere else like he's just not going to be available on back -to -backs and we're trying to preserve him for the postseason or whatever The other lingering concern I have with Helsley is the nature of his injuries.

[347] I got the baseball forecaster five -year injury log.

[348] Ryan Helsley.

[349] COVID in 2020.

[350] Okay, fine.

[351] Not really worried about that today.

[352] Stress reaction in his right elbow.

[353] That was 2021.

[354] 2021, yeah.

[355] And a strained right forearm cost him a lot of time in 2023.

[356] No, no, don't like the forearm.

[357] It's a lower health grade and a trade risk.

[358] Skills still look pretty good.

[359] Another guy that you would think would run mid -30s K rates, 29 .7 is not bad, but a 17 .3 % swinging strike rate last year.

[360] He's averaging 99 .8.

[361] Where were the strikeouts relative to the group too?

[362] I'm picking Nitz because that's what we do in this range.

[363] I like him better in the next one.

[364] Okay, so you like him better than Rysel Iglesias.

[365] You've been fading Rysel Iglesias for at least two years?

[366] Someday I'll be right.

[367] Seemingly A -plus job security on a very good team.

[368] There's a skills lag for this group.

[369] Absolutely.

[370] It's strikeouts.

[371] Here's another fun age -related tidbit.

[372] I thought Ryan Helsley was old at 30.

[373] Rysel Iglesias is 35 years old now.

[374] I mean, the most amazing thing is I pulled up his velocity chart to be like, oh, yeah, he'll have dropped in velocity, and he hasn't.

[375] From his peak velocity, it was 96 .5 in 2017.

[376] To go from 2017 at 96 .5 to 2024 at 95 .7 is pretty impressive, actually.

[377] Yeah.

[378] So he's been keeping his velo, but he hasn't been keeping the strikeout rate.

[379] The swinging strike rate's been all right.

[380] It's come down off of a peak with that one year, that full year in Anaheim.

[381] So the last four years, Anaheim, 37 .7 % K rate.

[382] The next year, 2022, 31 .7%.

[383] 2023 in Atlanta, 29 .4 % strikeout rate for Rysel Iglesias.

[384] And then last year, 26 .3%.

[385] And Oopsie says it's going to stay there.

[386] Some of the other guys say there's going to be some bounce back.

[387] But the bat says it's going to go even further to 24 .7 % strikeout rate for Rysel Iglesias with a 3 .66 ERA.

[388] So it doesn't stand out in terms of ERA projection or strikeout projection.

[389] He's lost some of his competitors.

[390] I mean, I thought Minter was the guy that was going to steal.

[391] steal the job from him at some point.

[392] You're paying for safety, and I feel like sometimes safety is perceived and not actual.

[393] I think these are closer to skills at a closer one sort of price, and there's a bunch of guys that go in the second tier that are more intriguing.

[394] Yeah, these are the guys Eno's going to want.

[395] I was just remembering, too, with Rysel Iglesias, quick trip, dumb memory lane, very quick.

[396] He signed a four -year deal with the Angels.

[397] The Angels traded for him before his walk year, had him, gave him the qualifying offer, He declined the qualifying offer.

[398] They signed him to a four -year deal in December.

[399] They traded him in the first year of a four -year extension to Atlanta and got Tucker Davidson and Jesse Chavez back.

[400] What was that sequence?

[401] Jesse Chavez, dude, I love that guy.

[402] How did that happen?

[403] You're going to have to pry the ball from Jesse Chavez's dead fingers.

[404] I just need to ask.

[405] He's going to be pitching in Mexico at 48.

[406] Jesse Chavez will pitch forever.

[407] That is for sure.

[408] I just want to know.

[409] Could someone ask Artie Moreno, so what happened there?

[410] Why did you give him a four -year deal and then decide to have your GM trade him away and get Tucker Davidson and Jesse Chavez back?

[411] Because that's not very smart.

[412] Let's go to ADP tier number two.

[413] We're looking at pick 75 down to pick 125.

[414] The reason we stretched this out is because there's a big cliff after pick 125.

[415] This group includes Felix Bautista, Andres Munoz, Joan Duran, Robert Suarez, and Ryan Walker.

[416] This is a really nice group in terms of overall skills.

[417] It starts off real strong, kind of fades a little bit in the end in terms of at least some questions creeping in.

[418] Bautista's expected already for opening day, you know.

[419] Might be eased in the spring training.

[420] I don't worry about that with relievers.

[421] They only need a handful of appearances in games before they're ready.

[422] He's been throwing since August, so I think we're looking at a pretty full workload.

[423] Maybe occasional early season, let's avoid a back -to -back or something approaches for him.

[424] But is there anything that you're worried about with Felix Bautista, especially at this price?

[425] Because I think these are closer one skills.

[426] At least they were pre -TJ.

[427] And now you're kind of creeping closer to the back of the top 10 at this position by ADP.

[428] Yeah, I mean, I think the only risk is the risk of revision.

[429] You know, the risk of it not having held for him.

[430] And we just didn't see him pitch on the big league field.

[431] So we don't know what his velo is like.

[432] And, you know, to some extent, there's kind of weirdish mechanics there.

[433] He has this crazy high release point and crazy high ride from it and throws 100.

[434] So, you know, I guess there could be some injury risk there.

[435] I think there's a heightened injury risk among all relievers too.

[436] Because not only do they throw hard, but a lot of times they have poor command or weird mechanics.

[437] And that's why they ended up relievers.

[438] And so him coming back off of injury, I think there's a fair amount of risk there.

[439] But I'm going to turn the tables on you, even though I didn't answer your trivia at all.

[440] You're a little better at this than I am.

[441] I don't know if you've been staring a hole into these things, but the top five relievers projected by Oopsie in terms of ERA.

[442] You already got Mason Miller.

[443] And you already have Edwin Diaz.

[444] I've already said that on this show.

[445] And Klasse.

[446] So you've got three.

[447] Who are the other two?

[448] That's three out of five.

[449] Is Andres Munoz in there?

[450] Yes, he is.

[451] He's number two.

[452] Yeah, I figured he could be in there since he's in this tier.

[453] Is the fifth guy not in this tier?

[454] No, this guy's in this tier.

[455] Oh, okay.

[456] Well, then I'll say it's Joanne Duran.

[457] It is!

[458] My favorite.

[459] And Duran's not.

[460] coming off of TJ and has excellent strikeout rates and excellent stuff.

[461] And so Duran Munoz, you can take two guys that are really exciting and I think better relievers than Rysel Iglesias.

[462] And I think people, this is again, the perceived safety idea.

[463] It's like, I think they saw some stuff in Seattle where sometimes some other guy would get a save and maybe Driff and Jax will get five saves this year.

[464] I don't care.

[465] I think Noren and Munoz are the closers and they're healthy.

[466] Bautista, by the way, is six, so he's not far off.

[467] I'm just saying, if I could get somebody in the top five who is not coming off of surgery, I will.

[468] And those right there are the two that I have circled, that I have taken in most of my drafts because I don't know why they're here.

[469] And I think they're elite and they cost less.

[470] And I do think there is a drop from them.

[471] Like if I drew the tier line, you know, you might put all these guys in tier one and...

[472] draw the line after Duran, because there is a little difference after them, I think.

[473] Yeah, and you could even probably take Iglesias and pull him down to this group and rearrange these a little bit accordingly.

[474] I do think with Andres Munoz, I noticed that he made 60 appearances last year.

[475] 11 were multi -inning appearances, and 16 were games in which he entered with runners on base already.

[476] Those numbers looked a little high.

[477] And I compared it to Duran, who I think people have looked at the same way and wondered, is he like a regular, just three outs at the end of the game, like clear traditional ninth inning closer, or do they move him around a little bit?

[478] Part of the issue with Johan Duran last year was that he had an oblique injury to begin the season.

[479] So he actually had a path to 30 saves.

[480] Three out of his 58 appearances.

[481] were multiple innings, so much less usage in that multi -inning role.

[482] Again, Munoz had 11 out of 60 appearances.

[483] And Munoz was throwing a new sinker last year, so maybe they just really liked his ability to get soft contact.

[484] Yeah, and 7 out of 58 appearances were situations in which Duran entered with runners on base.

[485] So I think of the two, I'm actually more comfortable with Duran just based on the who do I think will get more saves.

[486] Team quality is pretty similar, I would say.

[487] Twins, Mariners, like...

[488] Because of the AL Central being the way it is, sure, they could try to win the division again.

[489] They're just doing so little with their roster, it's perplexing.

[490] But I think these are both good closers to target.

[491] If we're saying who's in our circle of trust, if we want to get one, I think they're both in.

[492] And I think you can justify...

[493] flipping the order and saying, you know, I prefer Duran Ramunios to Bautista, but I do prefer Bautista to the rest of this tier, despite coming off the injury, because we've seen Bautista pitch like a guy that can be as good as a Williams or Hayter.

[494] He can get to that level.

[495] I'm right there with you as far as these two guys, Munoz and Duran, being a little undervalued relative to the pack.

[496] It's probably almost entirely because of Rizal Iglesias being sandwiched where he is.

[497] If Iglesias went like 20 picks later and was behind these guys, I'd be nodding along a little bit more to the actual order of how things are working by ADP.

[498] Right, I don't want to, like, my fading Iglesias is not often, not usually just like, oh, he's going to be terrible.

[499] It's more just like...

[500] I don't think he's as good as the other guys.

[501] And to the point about Munoz, yes, it's possible that he only gets the 25 saves this year and that the guys around him get more saves.

[502] I think he'll make up for that with this second -best ERA -type skills.

[503] But I do have to sort of nod along and say, yes, Seattle has more options.

[504] So just looking at the top 30 in projected ERA, Seattle has four guys.

[505] Munoz.

[506] brash santos three guys they have three guys minnesota only has two and edward bizardo is 32nd so if you do top 40 you know seattle has four guys i do think that they have options this is also they use stuff plus very obviously you can kind of see it when you look at their relievers like oh okay yeah yeah Four top 40 guys projected by Oopsie?

[507] Yep, that makes sense.

[508] The two in this group that feel like they're overdrafts just in a broader sense, I think, are Robert Suarez and Ryan Walker.

[509] Suarez, for me, the velocity ticked up last year, and it didn't come with more strikeouts.

[510] The good news was we saw the lowest walk rate during his time in the big leagues, 6 .2%.

[511] The weird thing is the projections don't like him.

[512] The bat has a 419 ERA for Robert Suarez.

[513] And one thing that I'm looking at, too, is he actually allows a lot of hard contact.

[514] And guys that throw hard are going to do that most of the time.

[515] But he's predictable.

[516] He's almost a one -pitch pitcher, especially if he gets behind the count.

[517] He's got one pitch he likes.

[518] Yeah, so a 40 .4 % hard hit rate kind of stands out as problematic when you're not running 30 -plus percent strikeout rates.

[519] You have to miss more bats to live to tell the tale when you give up that much hard contact.

[520] And the other factor here is we know the Padres are squeezed cash -wise, right?

[521] So we're going to get to a point later in the show.

[522] There's a half dozen teams that don't have any clear -cut closer right now.

[523] At least they don't have a reliever being drafted in the top 250 overall.

[524] Suarez could be on the move.

[525] They could trade him.

[526] He has an opt -out after 2025, but he's going to turn 34 in March.

[527] Even if he does the same thing he just did, I don't know if the free agent market at his age is going to be kinder than what's left on that deal in 26 and 27 at like $9 million per on average, right?

[528] So I can see the Padres looking at Suarez, looking at who they have depth -wise in their bullpen and saying, let's move Suarez for somebody who's either pre -arb or year one arbitration, save money that way, backfill it closer with someone else, and we're just going to move on.

[529] That's a possibility.

[530] Estrada and Adam are projected to be top 40 relievers by PPRA, and Suarez isn't.

[531] It's a strength in that organization.

[532] I guess the same thing I was thinking about with Helsley would be true with Suarez.

[533] Would there be teams interested at $9 million per in acquiring Suarez and making him a 7th or an 8th inning guy?

[534] I don't think he's a lock to close if he goes somewhere else.

[535] He might be a really good one.

[536] If he can focus on using that sinker and maybe throwing it low in the zone instead of high in the zone, trying to chase strikeouts and become more of like a Munoz type where he's trying to get ground balls and throwing low in the zone, at least it would be something different than what he's been doing.

[537] And they could maybe put him in situations where he doesn't face a lot of lefties because that's when you see him.

[538] do predictable things, try to throw his thinker hide away, and see people take him yard the other way.

[539] So that's a risk for me. Last night I was bugging you on the group chat.

[540] I said, hey, what do you guys think about Robert Suarez to the Tigers for Casey Mize?

[541] And Casey Mize has two more years before free agency, so arbitration's like $2 .3 million or something for this year.

[542] So they'd save money.

[543] Padres would get a starter.

[544] Tigers would get a closer.

[545] Mises' role is kind of up in the air right now in Detroit anyway.

[546] Maybe the change of scenery would work wonders for both.

[547] It's the best I could do.

[548] They're looking for starters because the back end right now is Waldron, Brito, and Randy Vasquez.

[549] So, I mean, what we've been hearing is cease.

[550] And if it's cease, then it's going to be kind of, you know, one of those deals like the Soto deal where I think it's cease for like two starters that he can plug into his rotation right away.

[551] And maybe an outfield prospect, you know, because...

[552] They kind of have a problem in left field, too.

[553] So, you know, yeah, Mize might fit, and maybe it's like Mallow and Mize.

[554] Mallow and Mize, I don't know.

[555] I don't know where Justin Henry Malloway is right now on their depth chart.

[556] He seems like a versus lefties only guy all of a sudden.

[557] That's the way they've been using him, and the glove continues to be the problem.

[558] Going back to this tier to close it out, Ryan Walker took over that job in San Francisco, and I think as you look at the depth chart, Camilo Duvall still looks like the biggest threat to take it.

[559] Devol's the guy that lost the job to Walker in the first place.

[560] So aside from the lack of a track record, this sort of dominance in the big leagues from Ryan Walker prior to last season, it is lower end velocity for a closer.

[561] It's like 94 .2 on the four seamer, 95 .6 on the sinker.

[562] It's actually tied with Raisa Leglesias for the slowest fastball on the episode so far.

[563] So it's...

[564] Not prototypical closer stuff.

[565] His slider is really good, but I noticed he gives up a lot of homers on it, and I wonder if it's because guys should go up there sitting slider against him and take him deep because they could just try to get lucky on there.

[566] I don't know.

[567] I don't really understand how Ryan Walker was as good as he was last year.

[568] 32 % K rate, sub -6 % walk rate.

[569] There's a lot to like on the surface, the nice ballpark.

[570] That helps him keep the home run rate down overall.

[571] But I was surprised at just how susceptible the slider was to giving up homers.

[572] Yeah, that's so weird too because the slider is the one that has the stuff plus, 125, and the sinker has a 94 stuff plus despite its velo.

[573] So they're somehow sitting on the better pitch by the model.

[574] I think generally what I think of when I see him is Jake Arrieta.

[575] I don't know what that means.

[576] Jake Arrieta's reliever would be pretty good, I think.

[577] Yeah, it would be pretty good.

[578] So are you in on Walker?

[579] Let's just say a run happens, you're waiting for one of Munoz, Duran, Bautista, you were six picks away, those three guys all go, and you're like, crap, I've got to make a move now because there's a bad drop after this tier.

[580] Are you comfortable with Walker, or are you saying, I'll wait it out?

[581] I think Deval represents a serious threat to his candidacy, because one of the things that...

[582] was missing me with Duvall was to some extent and this is just you can read the transaction history it must have been something to do with attitude you know because you don't send a guy like that down who's still throwing 100 like there's nothing wrong with him physically you send him down why'd you send him down because he's not willing to work on something that you wanted to work on in the major leagues you know so I think that's a bit of a wake -up call.

[583] And why do I think?

[584] So when you look at the movement and the extension, he was lost in extension.

[585] He lost the movement last year.

[586] If you look at that and you look at the charts when he came back, he didn't fix it right away.

[587] But they, A, brought him back, and B, he volunteered to pitch this winter.

[588] So I think that must be a pretty big wake -up call because as a reliever, your life in the game is tenuous.

[589] And when you're a closer and you're coming out and all the lights are on, You feel like maybe, nah, I'm good.

[590] And then you're back in AAA the same year that you had the lights on for yourself.

[591] That's got to be a huge wake -up call.

[592] So I know these are, again, I'm wading into the kind of soft skill stuff.

[593] But what I'm doing is pairing this soft analysis along with the fact that Walker has less stuff, a higher ERA projection from PPRA than Doval.

[594] one of the lesser stuff packages of these closes that we've talked about so far.

[595] All right.

[596] Well, I'm with you on Deval still being a bit of a threat, and I think it's an easy bullpen to just avoid completely if you don't want to wait it out and see how it plays out.

[597] Because Walker might be good enough to make you wait two or three months, and then Deval ends up being a cut, and you're going to spend the fab trying to get him later anyway, if the job even changes hands at all.

[598] I've gotten Duvall in the draft and hold I'm doing right now.

[599] I got him in like the 33rd round or something.

[600] It was okay.

[601] Yeah, at that point, sure.

[602] No problems there.

[603] ADP Tier 3 is changing pretty quickly.

[604] We talked about the Royals making that big addition with Carlos Estevez as this group used to be started by Lucas Erceg, Trevor McGill, Jeff Hoffman, Kirby Yates, Tanner Scott, Alexis Diaz, David Bednar, Benjoys, and Pete Fairbanks all lumped in here in the span of about four to five rounds.

[605] Erceg's ADP is going to change because I think we're getting some indications from the Royals that Carlos Estevez will definitely be a part of the mix for saves.

[606] As we talked about previously, I think Estevez is good enough to just keep the job even though Erceg is the better of the two relievers all around.

[607] Like if I just needed three outs and my season was hanging in the balance, I would choose Erceg.

[608] But it's close enough.

[609] I don't think you want to wait it out with Erceg because it could be one of those situations that Estevez just doesn't wobble enough to ever lose the job.

[610] And you could be holding a really good setup guy all season.

[611] And in some leagues, really good setup guys don't have that much value.

[612] Yeah, dude, I don't like this tier at all.

[613] Almost the whole tier.

[614] I don't think I'm really taking part in this tier.

[615] I will point out the names when we get to them, but I like Erceg as a pitcher, but you're right.

[616] And it's a 10 -point difference in Stuff Plus and New Stuff Plus between him and Estevez.

[617] 112 for Erceg and 102 for Estevez.

[618] But just the way that Estevez is brought in on free agency, the money he's being paid.

[619] I just kind of feel like he's going to be annoyed at the closer.

[620] And if he doesn't screw up, then Urshag doesn't get the chance to take it from him.

[621] Got to give the Royals some credit, though, for making that bullpen a lot better.

[622] There's good depth there.

[623] That A bullpen is solid, and it might even be four or five deep in terms of guys you don't want to see once they hash out who their number five starter is going to be because Chris Bubich could be back in the pen again, and he looked really good in that role a year ago.

[624] Added Hunter Harvey, who was hurt after the trade.

[625] Erceg was part of the deadline last year, and Estevez.

[626] And Estevez, like, you know, versus the rest of the prices that were out there, like, I think he was a decent value.

[627] Yeah, I'm looking just at the last three days.

[628] Scott goes for, like, 70 -plus million.

[629] Yeah, it's not a bad contract for agency.

[630] The last handful of days, just three days' worth of drafts, the earliest that Estevez has gone is pick 154, so he's starting to creep up into this tier, which makes sense.

[631] But this is a weird place to shop for the most part.

[632] Trevor McGill looked like a very capable replacement.

[633] There's so many questions on all these guys.

[634] McGill is, I think, one of the guys I might take in this tier.

[635] I mean, the only question is, I guess, health.

[636] He had a health problem last year, right?

[637] Yeah, and McGill, at one point, McGill suffered a concussion.

[638] It's because he fell.

[639] Like walking along?

[640] Yeah, he was at the store.

[641] He was getting a new modem or something at the mall.

[642] It was like the Time Warner store at the mall, a charter store at the mall, whatever the stupid thing's called.

[643] I mean, concussions are nothing to laugh out of.

[644] I take back the laughing.

[645] It's just a crazy thing.

[646] He fainted and hit his head.

[647] Okay, that's bad for anyone.

[648] He's 6 '8".

[649] It's a long fall.

[650] The other injury was a bad injury, too.

[651] Problem with fainting, he probably underwent a whole battery of heart tests and stuff.

[652] I had that issue for a little bit, and I don't know what they found in the end.

[653] Yeah, scary stuff.

[654] We don't get access to that.

[655] So I guess there's some stuff there where you feel like it's a little bit of a black box in terms of his health.

[656] I think he's got good enough stuff to be a top 10 closer.

[657] What do you think of the threats to him?

[658] That's the problem.

[659] But Avner Uribe has no command.

[660] No, none.

[661] No fastball command.

[662] Piams is not a closer.

[663] Piams is not much of a threat.

[664] No, it's going to be someone you don't expect, right?

[665] It's going to be...

[666] Well, it could be someone you expect.

[667] I think there are questions about...

[668] Wait, there's a guy on our list later.

[669] Aaron Ashby, his role.

[670] He was great out of the bullpen last year.

[671] He could do it.

[672] They've shown in the past.

[673] They'll use lefties to close, and they've got three other lefties in the bullpen, maybe more, depending on how the final roster shakes out.

[674] So it's not a...

[675] We need a lefty earlier in the game, so theoretically...

[676] He has no command, and he's had trouble staying healthy, so maybe the bullpen is right for him.

[677] You could do that with D .L. Hall.

[678] You could bring up Jacob Mizorowski and use him as a closer.

[679] So I think there are a lot of unknowns here.

[680] The Yolo Yoho.

[681] Craig Yoho?

[682] Dude, Craig Yoho has a three P -P -E -R -A.

[683] What?

[684] Tell me about him.

[685] I don't know nothing about him.

[686] Do you know anything about him?

[687] Who's Craig Yoho?

[688] It's weird.

[689] It's a low -velo fastball with a nasty changeup.

[690] Really?

[691] I don't think that's a closer.

[692] I think that's a good weapon somewhere in the bridge to your closer.

[693] And yeah, projections love him because he's been great in the minors.

[694] This must be some sort of weird oopsie thing where...

[695] He has different MLEs or something, major league equivalencies.

[696] Yeah, I think he's going to be a very good big league reliever, but I don't think Craig Yoho is the closer.

[697] I've taken some really late Abner Uribe's because he does have nasty stuff, and sometimes command doesn't matter that much as a closer.

[698] Well, and to whatever extent it matters, when last season started and Williams was hurt, Uribe was the first guy that got the shot.

[699] So whether he can...

[700] wrestle it back quickly or not?

[701] That's an open question.

[702] All this is to say, of the group, McGill is okay where he's going.

[703] I think if you're looking for that second closer, he fits better there than your first.

[704] There's a couple guys that go after him right now that I like a little more.

[705] Jeff Hoffman, I think, is a little safer because of the contract.

[706] It's a multi -year role now where he's been phenomenal out of the bullpen.

[707] So I think as far as...

[708] Guys that are probably moving up.

[709] Just a weird health scare that scared a lot of other people away from signing him to that contract.

[710] But you know what?

[711] There was a lot of like, oh, can he start?

[712] And so maybe people were like, well, with this kind of health, I don't think he can be a starter.

[713] Where the Blue Jays were like, yeah, but we just need a reliever.

[714] So he probably has the same health risk as other relievers.

[715] So yeah, throw him in there.

[716] I'd probably put Hoffman up above Robert Suarez if I was going to.

[717] pushing him up into the bottom of the next tier.

[718] I think that's a reasonable way to go about it.

[719] I think I like Tanner Scott more than most people do right now, too.

[720] But Brandon Gomes, GM, already came out and said he's going to get a decent share of the saves.

[721] If the Dodgers generate 50 saves this year, Tanner Scott should get, what, 35 of them?

[722] Is that a reasonable, like, 70 % of the save opportunities for the Dodgers?

[723] Like, we talked about it before and said...

[724] Maybe if teams they expect to see a lot, they'll mix and match some.

[725] But come playoff time, they're just trying to avoid someone getting too many looks at Tanner Scott.

[726] Other than that, what are we worried about?

[727] St. Louis created the most save opportunities last year.

[728] Well, yeah.

[729] 55?

[730] Always strange, right?

[731] Close games.

[732] But then it was Cleveland, 53.

[733] Milwaukee, 53.

[734] Tampa, 51.

[735] Dodgers, 50.

[736] Yeah.

[737] Yeah.

[738] If he's got 50, he can get to 30.

[739] And there'd still be, you know.

[740] Five for Kirby Yates and five for Evan Phillips.

[741] Maybe I'm a big dum -dum, but I'm taking Tanner Scott probably first of this entire group so far.

[742] Not great command for Scott, but it really, like I said, once you get to a certain level and it's relief, you can do this sort of thing that Trevor May talked about where you can be like, I'm just going to give you this free pass because I'm going to strike the next guy out.

[743] So, I don't know.

[744] He's pretty dominant.

[745] I think there's also enough.

[746] you know, really kind of scary left -handers around the league that if you were going to face, you know, Juan Soto, you know, Francisco Lindor and somebody like, I think you would bring Scott out and it would almost be just for the, for Soto.

[747] Right.

[748] You know what I mean?

[749] But you can't do that anymore.

[750] So you just be like, yeah, he's so Scott's gonna be our closer tonight.

[751] Cause Soto is coming up in the night.

[752] I think he's this.

[753] He's the primary source of sales for the Dodgers, and people are underdrafting him right now.

[754] Alexis Diaz looks vulnerable every single draft season, and yet there he is still keeping the job.

[755] I almost think Taylor Rodgers is more of a threat to Diaz than some of the other recent bullpens the Reds have put together behind him, but Rodgers has had home run trouble at various points in the last couple of years, so I don't know if the park's going to fit.

[756] He's got the 445th best.

[757] PPERA projection.

[758] 445th?

[759] That's a lot of guys projected that probably aren't pitching in the big leagues in there, right?

[760] And I don't know how much we can argue.

[761] Last year he had a 399 ERA with a 130 whip and a 22 % strikeout rate.

[762] I kind of want to look up what he was worth last year.

[763] Was he worth a lot?

[764] He was, among relievers, 28 saves with below average ratios for a closer and a low strikeout rate.

[765] 77th reliever by the auction calculator.

[766] I kind of believe it.

[767] I mean, I think he's in a void.

[768] He's probably in a void.

[769] The case for him would be lack of great alternatives, saves or saves, and maybe if you were just building a ratios machine elite staff of starters, you're like, I don't need the extra Ks for my reliever, and I can take a little bit of a...

[770] a risk in ERA and whip over 55, 60 innings, and it won't wreck me. Maybe that's the way to think about him, but I don't know.

[771] I don't really like Alexis Diaz all that much, so easily a guy that I'll look elsewhere at when we're kind of in this part of the queue, especially with David Bednar sitting right there next to him.

[772] The tipping problems were well -documented.

[773] Aroldis Chapman's gone.

[774] Bednar's falling.

[775] I mean, what do you have on the Max and Min and maybe an idea of some of the who -you -rathers from Bednar?

[776] I've found him enticing in some drafts.

[777] 143 to 283 in the last three days is the spread.

[778] But right around pick 200.

[779] So he will fall in some of your drafts.

[780] I don't quite understand.

[781] I don't understand why you would take Alexis Diaz over David Bednar at the very least.

[782] That seems like a no -brainer for Bednar.

[783] Bednar has a better projection for almost every system.

[784] 370 from Oopsy.

[785] Bednar throws 97.

[786] Diaz throws 94.

[787] Bednar throws in Pittsburgh.

[788] Diaz throws in Cincinnati.

[789] Yeah.

[790] I just think he's one of my favorite players in a tier where I don't love everyone.

[791] So definitely like the price on Bednar right now.

[792] Hope it stays cheap.

[793] What do you think about Ben Joyce?

[794] The walk rate came down a little bit last year.

[795] Still not striking out as many guys as you'd expect for someone who averages 102 .4 with his fastball.

[796] But hey, you know, I'm getting Jordan Hicks vibes here.

[797] Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[798] And Jordan Hicks was a good closer.

[799] I think Ben Joyce is unquestionably the closer.

[800] They want to install him and get him for five years.

[801] I don't think he will be one of the highest strikeout rate guys, but oopsie says 28%.

[802] He had 30 % numbers in the minors.

[803] There could be kind of an arsenal tweak there for him, or he could be a guy who only strikes out quote unquote 24, 25 % of guys, but keeps the ERA really low because he's not going to give up any homers, not throwing 102 mile an hour sinker.

[804] Yeah, I think Hicks is actually a pretty good example there.

[805] But 59 % ground ball rate for Ben Joyce last year, 0 .26 home runs per nine.

[806] And you see with Oopsie, the lowest BABIP projection because of his stuff in a 3 .10 ERA.

[807] Ben Joyce has been on teams of mine.

[808] I'm already acquiring shares of him.

[809] Ben Joyce and David Bednar are guys that I can circle in this tier.

[810] And I think if I circle McGill, Bednar, and Joyce, I can probably wait past pick 200 and get one of them.

[811] Would you consider building a team where you just bail on those top two tiers and shoot for a combination of these guys in the middle rounds?

[812] Do you feel like you'll get enough?

[813] I guess.

[814] I mean, I just, which either of them you have these like caveats where you're just like, I don't know if Ben Joyce is going to strike guys out.

[815] You know, Bednar, he was great for three straight seasons before this last season, but he did lose something and he has to get something back.

[816] And then Miguel has his health risks.

[817] I mean, maybe if you get two out of these three, you end up with one guy who ends up top five at the end of the season.

[818] That wouldn't be crazy at all, right?

[819] Like Bednar just goes returns to form or Miguel just.

[820] announces himself with authority, where Ben Joyce does strike out 28 % to 29 % of the guys with 30 -plus saves.

[821] If you take two out of three, you might get one elite guy.

[822] It could be a way to cheap your way into an elite guy.

[823] Pete Fairbanks is the last of this tier.

[824] Since he debuted in the big leagues in 2019, he's never reached 50 innings in a big league season.

[825] Last year, swinging strike rate bottomed out at 9 .5%.

[826] Strikeout rate came down along with it.

[827] I'm worried.

[828] This is a loaded pen.

[829] They always find guys that are good.

[830] They make a lot of adjustments.

[831] It's an affordable contract.

[832] Mason Montgomery, Hunter Biggie, they got guys.

[833] Yeah, Edwin Useta was good at the end of last year.

[834] I mean, they never seem to have a problem.

[835] Fairbanks is scheduled to make $4 million this year with a club option for 2026.

[836] So in real life, he could be a closer for someone else or a nice addition to some other bullpen.

[837] Just don't think he's the guy in Tampa Bay when the season ends, be that because of injury, further skills loss, or trade.

[838] A lot of ways this one can go wrong, even though the price is not bad.

[839] If you have health grades on relievers, his has to be one of the worst.

[840] Yeah, yeah, absolutely has to be, which is a bummer.

[841] I'd love to see healthier seasons from Pete Fairbanks, but it just looks like stuff is starting to erode pretty quickly for him.

[842] Let's get to the next group.

[843] Pick 200 to pick 250 range.

[844] Only a few names in this group right now.

[845] Jordan Romano, Justin Martinez, Carlos Estevez.

[846] We already talked about him.

[847] He's kind of moving up anyway.

[848] Kenley Jansen, who would move up if he were to sign.

[849] And Ryan Presley, another guy that's probably going to creep up closer to that David Bednar territory within the top 200.

[850] If you had to pick one, who are you picking?

[851] Out of these five?

[852] I'm going to guess Estevez.

[853] Probably Estevez, but I'm assuming the price is changing.

[854] So then let's take him out and say who's the next pick.

[855] Presley, I think.

[856] I'm worried about Romano from a health perspective.

[857] Yeah, the team that had him and looked at his rehab and saw his medical stuff and saw him up front said no thanks.

[858] Yeah.

[859] To save a few million dollars.

[860] That's the order of this just not being quite...

[861] right for me. And I think the Phillies, they have some quality alternatives too, right?

[862] They don't have to use Jordan Romano as a closer.

[863] They signed him on a pretty affordable one -year deal.

[864] Let's throw that chart up now.

[865] Yeah, baby!

[866] This is the best PPERA projections with 10 or fewer saves.

[867] And it starts with Griffin Jackson, Kate Smith, which, duh, but...

[868] Ryan Kirkering is fire personified.

[869] I mean, I just love that guy.

[870] Matt Brash is hurt.

[871] Craig Yoho, we talked about maybe a little artifact of the projection system, but Jeremiah Estrada is great.

[872] Camila Duvall is on here.

[873] Dead Neil Nunez is your Edwin Diaz handcuff, probably.

[874] Gregory Santos, Edward Bizzardo, your Seattle guys, along with Brash.

[875] Evan Phillips.

[876] A 3 .14, I would give him five to seven saves if you're in deeper leagues and want to just gather a couple saves for real cheap.

[877] Brian Abreu is your forever handcuff in Houston.

[878] And then Jose Alvarado, a 315 ERA projection.

[879] These are all better than the Jose Alvarado and the Ryan Kirkring numbers are better than the Jordan Romano projections.

[880] So they've got two guys in the pen, a lefty and a righty, who are projected to be better than the guy that people think is the closer.

[881] Ends with Jimmy Garcia, who, you know, I think people think it's Chad Green who's the biggest threat to Hoffman, and I think it's actually Jimmy Garcia.

[882] I think Hoffman is the only threat to Hoffman.

[883] It's just if that stuff they were seeing in the physicals before he signed with the Jays, if that's really a problem.

[884] His health is the big thing, yeah.

[885] That's it.

[886] It's just a health thing.

[887] So I'm not stashing from the Blue Jays pen in mixed leagues, maybe in an AL only league in reserves.

[888] I would take that flyer, but probably not doing it on my roster in a mixed league to begin the season.

[889] In Arizona, are you in on Justin Martinez?

[890] I am.

[891] Okay.

[892] So.

[893] What gives you confidence that it's Martinez and not A .J. Puck?

[894] Because A .J. Puck as a reliever is phenomenal.

[895] He's, I don't know, maybe a top 10 reliever league -wide?

[896] Am I just out of my mind right now with this sort of ceiling on Puck?

[897] The thing that gives me confidence is that Joe Mantoply's fastball is 89 miles an hour.

[898] And that seems like maybe a weird thing to bring up right now because Joe Manteply is not a threat to be closer.

[899] But Joe Manteply is the other lefty in this bullpen.

[900] And I think you're going to get a true co -closer situation with Justin Martinez and AJ Puck, righty lefty.

[901] And I think that Puck is sometimes going to be used for lefties in the eighth.

[902] And there are more righties in the game than lefties.

[903] So Justin Martinez, I think they may end up...

[904] both with 15 to 20 saves.

[905] Okay.

[906] Yeah, it could be a split.

[907] I've looked at that one a few times by ADP and thought, give me AJ Puck because I feel like we don't know.

[908] Is Puck going after Martinez?

[909] That is a little bit weird.

[910] Yeah, Puck is going.

[911] Let's see.

[912] It's also five mile an hour difference on their fastballs.

[913] I mean, Justin Martinez throws really, really hard.

[914] AJ Puck.

[915] Early pick 264, late 374, ADP is like 313 the last three days.

[916] So, yeah, he goes later pretty consistently.

[917] Martinez is interesting.

[918] I've got him a few different places.

[919] I could see him taking the job and running with it.

[920] I am worried about at least a share, though, because I think Puck is very, very good.

[921] Kenley Jansen, does he sign somewhere?

[922] Does he sign with Texas?

[923] Does he sign with Washington or Detroit?

[924] Or...

[925] Miami probably wouldn't spend the money that way.

[926] Some of those places are out of money.

[927] I mean, Texas is acting like they're up against a hard cap, you know, internally or whatever.

[928] I'm looking near the bottom here, and I don't see a lot of teams that have money that would sign him, you know, at the very bottom.

[929] And the bottom bullpens are the White Sox, Rockies, Nationals, Reds, Marlins, Angels.

[930] I haven't said one that I think will spend money.

[931] Oakland.

[932] The Reds could, in theory.

[933] Yeah, the Reds.

[934] Because they signed Hayes after being interested in Luis Robert, and Hayes was only $5 million, so if Jansen only costs like $10 million, they could probably pull that off.

[935] I think the Tigers are a risk because they've got a collection that they can use pretty well, but having a sort of closer with a capital C on his hat might suit them.

[936] I think the Tigers are a risk.

[937] I think who else could be a risk?

[938] The Rangers, even though I don't think they have much money.

[939] I think there's also some question about his health and how he ended the season health -wise.

[940] And then there's not, I think, a lot of open seats waiting for him.

[941] I mean, if the Tigers or the Rangers sign him, he's a closer.

[942] If anybody else signs him, he's a setup guy.

[943] Would he do that?

[944] Yeah, I just, I don't know if at this stage of his career, if just continuing to pitch even in a non -closer role is something that Kenley Jansen wants to do.

[945] It was 27 saves again last year.

[946] Injuries, I mean, it was a back injury.

[947] It was a lat injury.

[948] It was shoulder inflammation at the end of the year.

[949] So it was a lot of stuff that was piling up on him.

[950] But I think the two places he could go that would be good for him to get another shot at 25 saves are the Nats and the Tigers.

[951] Good enough teams.

[952] Easy to see how they can manipulate the rest of the bullpen to just make him the guy.

[953] And if they get to the point in August where they don't like what they see, they're either trading for something else or they're willing to make a move as they know their potential postseason fate.

[954] Once they get to that stage, they'd be more willing to pull him out of the role if it wasn't working.

[955] Looking ahead, what we're doing after this is a little bit more just talking about pens.

[956] So why don't I just throw the, let's throw the Tigers thing up here that I have.

[957] What I've done here is I've adjusted the Stuff Plus for Bo Brisky and Casey Mize.

[958] And what I did for Casey Mize was I gave him five points of Stuff Plus from his regular number to make him a reliever.

[959] So his ERA projection is irrelevant according to that stuff plus number that I have there.

[960] And so is Bo Brisky's.

[961] And what I did with Bo Brisky was I used his second half stuff plus because he was pitching in shorter outings and was more of a reliever.

[962] And I think we saw that.

[963] in the postseason.

[964] And in fact, if Bo Brisky is going to give me one inning at a time, and I think they have built enough depth in the rotation that, you know, the Casey Mize idea was yours.

[965] I'm going to give you the credit on that.

[966] That was part of the Robert Suarez group chat.

[967] Casey Mize discussion was what about Mize to closer?

[968] But I think if there is a guy here that isn't listed necessarily as a closer on the step chart, that could be the closer.

[969] from day one it's bo brisky and so i like bo brisky late i don't really like foley because he's a sinker thrower so no matter the fact that he has one of the better projections on here you can see it's a poor strikeout rate it's not necessarily a ben joyce level you can see that from the stuff plus And sinkers make you susceptible to platoon splits, which is why Tyler Holton has taken saves from Jason Foley in the past.

[970] But Bro Briski, I think, has the overall arsenal to become just a closer against righties and lefties.

[971] I like him the best as it stands now.

[972] But I do think if you put Kenley Jansen on top of this...

[973] it's actually probably better for everybody.

[974] Jansen can just be the closer.

[975] He won't be necessarily the maybe true talent best pitcher in the pen, but nobody will have, you know, sort of look at these ERA projections.

[976] They're not great.

[977] Nobody on here is making you embarrassed that you have Jansen out there.

[978] And, oh, it's so obviously should be brisky.

[979] So I think right now I like brisky, but if they sign Jansen, then that's the best case scenario.

[980] But what you're doing, if you take Jansen here, is you're sort of assuming that.

[981] there's like this one place he could go that works out for him, or two.

[982] I mean, he'd probably close in Texas, too.

[983] I guess let's make it three, because I think he'd close for the Nats, right?

[984] Oh, yeah, he'd close for the Nats.

[985] That seems like a weird...

[986] I mean, yeah, it would be a job.

[987] They might not even have a full bullpen yet.

[988] Derek Law, Jorge Lopez, Jose Ferrer, Evan Reifert.

[989] I'm not really drafting anybody out of that pen.

[990] That looks like a really clear landing spot.

[991] Now we know where Ryan Presley's going, right?

[992] We had that trade to the Cubs, too, so he's the last in Tier 4, probably with the up arrow next to his name.

[993] You've talked about the other guys you like, Pearson, Porter Hodge.

[994] How many saves does Ryan Presley get this year, and are the ratios going to come in more like 2023?

[995] I guess we're talking about the whip, really.

[996] Or more like 2024?

[997] I think Presley starts the season as a closer.

[998] I still don't think he ends the season as a closer.

[999] If he does do what he did last year, I just think that that would lead to a blown save eventually.

[1000] I mean, a .349 ERA and a .134 whip doesn't sound that bad, but it's a 23 .8 % strikeout rate.

[1001] It just seems like that will lead to a blown save or two, and that will lead to questions if Hodge and Pearson are shoving.

[1002] So there's pretty good options.

[1003] He's 36 at this point.

[1004] The VLO is down to 93 .9.

[1005] So there's a lot of different ways that this can lead to him coming out.

[1006] Maybe they start the season with him.

[1007] I think I've seen this with different teams that they start the season with a certain bullpen, and they may even internally have people circle that they're like, this will probably be our October closer.

[1008] If you think about it, how different some of those pens were from even what was happening in August and September in the playoffs.

[1009] Am I crazy?

[1010] No, it happens.

[1011] And we've seen even with kind of the legacy closers, I guess we'll call them.

[1012] We've seen Jansen wobble in second halves.

[1013] We've seen Craig Kimbrell become less important over time.

[1014] It just sort of changes over time for that group.

[1015] Looking beyond pick 250 at the unsettled situations, let's say the Rangers don't sign Kenley Jansen.

[1016] What's the plan for you there?

[1017] Is that a bullpen you're targeting?

[1018] I don't really like Chris Martin.

[1019] as a closer i know that i've i showed that my bias towards fastball stuff over other stuff was maybe incorrect but you're talking a 38 year old who throws 94 .9 is projected to strike out 24 to 25 percent of the guys he sees i just don't you know i don't think that he's my closer you know i could pick other pretty easily maybe taking robert garcia late This might be one where I just kind of avoid it.

[1020] I'm not that excited about it.

[1021] But Robert Garcia has a better ERA projection, a better strikeout ray projection, a better fastball.

[1022] It's not like either of them is like a super incumbent closer that's done it a bunch of times.

[1023] So I guess I like Robert Garcia at price over Chris Martin at price.

[1024] Yeah, I haven't been drafting Martin.

[1025] I do have a little bit of late Robert Garcia in draft and holds at least so far, so I see the case for taking a shot there.

[1026] I mentioned the Nats before.

[1027] I don't see anybody in that bullpen that I'm drafting at the moment.

[1028] That looks like an easy avoid.

[1029] Maybe the answer is via trade or somebody falling out of the starting rotation mix, ending up in the bullpen.

[1030] I think we might get a surprise.

[1031] I thought you were going to say falling out of the sky.

[1032] That'd be even more bizarre than just shifting out of a starting role.

[1033] Even that, I'm like, um.

[1034] Yeah, who would it be out of the starters?

[1035] They have six starters in the depth chart right now.

[1036] Like Jake Irvin?

[1037] You're going to turn Soroka into a closer?

[1038] That would be kind of odd.

[1039] That could happen.

[1040] Maybe it's something like that.

[1041] It just doesn't seem obvious.

[1042] Soroka's an interesting, really late draft and hold guy because you're like, hey, maybe he's in the rotation or maybe if he's in the pen, that might be actually better because he's like...

[1043] you know, a path to saves.

[1044] He was a lot better as a reliever.

[1045] 60 Ks in 36 innings as a reliever last year, sub -3 ERA with the White Sox.

[1046] So maybe I stumbled into one there that could actually be a solution.

[1047] Put that injury history.

[1048] Just put him in the pen.

[1049] It'd be fun.

[1050] It'd be a fun second act if he went to the bullpen, stayed there for three, five years, ended up racking up like 100 saves.

[1051] That'd be a good story if it turned out that way.

[1052] Are you doing anything with the Marlins, the White Sox, or the Rockies?

[1053] I think the Marlins actually have a pretty good pen.

[1054] And I've taken different shots at it.

[1055] Super late in drafting holds.

[1056] And I'm not.

[1057] And like only leagues.

[1058] But you know.

[1059] I think Calvin Fauché is.

[1060] Probably the closer right now, you know, and he has a 96 -mile -an -hour fastball, good stuff plus, mediocre projection, 387 ERA.

[1061] I mean, we are talking about the Marlins.

[1062] They are kind of rebuilding.

[1063] Jesus Tinoco has a better ERA projection by Oopsie, has a slightly better fastball, and at least right now, this is sort of a bump from where he used to be.

[1064] He's kind of a veteran himself at 29, but Tinoco has been one of my favorite.

[1065] late draft and hold guys because I think even if Fauche is the closer, they're going to give Tinoco shots because this is going to be the type of pen where they are totally cool with developing these guys to sell them in season.

[1066] And even Anthony Bender, I think, could get a couple saves in him.

[1067] I don't think that these are the kind of guys that they feel like they need to keep around.

[1068] This is a deep rebuild.

[1069] This isn't like a we're going to be good next year, I don't think.

[1070] So in a deep rebuild, you trade away closers even if you have three years of control on them because they get more back.

[1071] So I kind of think there might be 10 saves each for Bender, Fauche, and Tinoco, which in a draft and hold only league situation, that's fine.

[1072] Looking at it now, Bender has the best ERA projection, probably the best overall projection, but Tinoco has been one of the cheapest, so I've been taking some Tinoco.

[1073] Thinking about the White Sox and Rockies, I mean, Prelander Baroa got some hype last year.

[1074] I don't know, man. Like, I don't really – that team's so bad.

[1075] I just don't think they have the talent.

[1076] Like, the Marlins have some talent in the bullpen, right?

[1077] Like, people to get excited about.

[1078] I just don't.

[1079] You know, maybe Barroa, but I'm not that excited about the talent in the White Sox bullpen.

[1080] I haven't been doing it.

[1081] I have not been throwing darts in that group at all.

[1082] And then Colorado, I just always avoid it.

[1083] Leisure had some good stuff, but, you know.

[1084] Couldn't turn it into consistency last year.

[1085] Hurt and bad results, yeah.

[1086] So it's kind of hard to bet on him.

[1087] And then the Rockies are just like, you know, the park is going to make it.

[1088] Terrible.

[1089] Do you want to buy a Rockies closer to try and pitch him away from home?

[1090] That's going to be really hard.

[1091] How many weeks do you think the Rockies won't be home next year at all?

[1092] Probably doesn't come up that often, right?

[1093] Probably six.

[1094] I've seen Halverson.

[1095] I've seen Halverson go.

[1096] Yeah, I see him get drafted a lot.

[1097] He throws 100, and it's decent stuff, but the park effects make his projection a 4 -3 -4 ERA.

[1098] Do you feel like the ceiling on a guy like that is...

[1099] What we don't love about Alexis Diaz, you get these ratios, you get the 25 saves, but the ratios aren't good, and the K rate's kind of light.

[1100] I guess if that moves the needle for you in a really deep league, then that's what you would take the chance on.

[1101] It'd be Seth Halverson.

[1102] When I said that Alexis Diaz was the 77th reliever, that means there's a lot of guys that don't get any saves that are better than him.

[1103] Yeah, and we are focused heavily on save -specific leagues, but we'll probably talk about some saves and hold leagues at some point.

[1104] I know Eno's got a hard out today, so we've got to make sure we stay on schedule.

[1105] So if you've got questions for a future episode, it can be reliever -centric, it can be anything you want.

[1106] Join the Discord, use the Mailbag channel, send those questions in.

[1107] We'll try to answer some of those later this week.

[1108] Yeah, we're due for a big mailbag thing at some point.

[1109] So this is also a great time at the end of the positional stuff, just the players that we didn't mention somehow.

[1110] It seems like we've mentioned every player ever.

[1111] But we didn't.

[1112] I'm sure there's players we didn't mention.

[1113] And then also we've been trying to pepper this with some best ball and draft and hold and only league.

[1114] So if there is a specific type of league that got left behind, I know.

[1115] very little auction you know if there's a question that you know the nice the kind of sort of broader the question is almost the better it is for the mailbag you know because if it's like very specifically keep you know two out of these five like that's we want to answer questions that we can kind of that can help other people as well.

[1116] Right.

[1117] And we can answer the other questions in the Discord too.

[1118] So just because it doesn't make it on the show doesn't mean we won't answer it.

[1119] But yeah, we'll take it.

[1120] Go to the Would You Rather section.

[1121] Yeah, if you got player toss -ups, the Would You Rather channel is the place to go.

[1122] I used that in my last draft.

[1123] You used it?

[1124] You crowdsourced it?

[1125] Casey Mize versus Andrew Abbott, baby.

[1126] You took Abbott, didn't you?

[1127] No, I took Mize.

[1128] Oh.

[1129] I ended up just being like, hey, why do we create models if we don't believe in them?

[1130] Because of Lodem.

[1131] Exactly.

[1132] We are going to go on our way out the door.

[1133] You can find Eno on bluesky, enoceras .bsky .social, on dbr .bsky .social.

[1134] Thanks to Brian Smith for putting this episode together.

[1135] That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels.

[1136] We're back with you on Wednesday.

[1137] Thanks for listening.