A Potential Peace Deal With the Taliban

[0] From the New York Times, I'm Michael Bavarro.

[1] This is the Daily.

[2] Today.

[3] Over the weekend, the United States appeared to have finally reached an agreement with the Taliban that would begin to end America's longest -running war in Afghanistan.

[4] That agreement followed months of private negotiations in Qatar between the two sides.

[5] We spoke to my colleague, Mujib Mishal, about what he learned from being there.

[6] It's Tuesday, September 3rd.

[7] After the extraordinary sacrifice of blood and treasure, the American people are weary of war without victory.

[8] U .S. military and diplomatic leaders are moving ahead on the Afghanistan strategy.

[9] We are a partner and a friend, but we will not dictate to the Afghan people how to live or how to govern their own complex society.

[10] Afghan security forces are battling a resurgent Taliban that's launching attacks around the country.

[11] We are not nation building again.

[12] The U .S. and the Taliban appear to be making progress toward a peace deal in Afghanistan.

[13] My administration is holding constructive talks with a number of Afghan groups, including the Taliban.

[14] The news that was coming out of Doha, which is where these talks are taking place, is that the framework is in place.

[15] Negotiators have agreed on a framework for a potential pact that could finally end the 17 years after a coalition chased the Taliban out of Kabul, Washington's envoy reaching a tentative deal on a roadmap.

[16] We do not know whether we'll achieve an agreement, but we do know that after two decades of war, the hour has come to at least try for peace.

[17] the other side would like to do the same thing.

[18] It's time.

[19] Mujib, you've been assigned to cover these landmark negotiations.

[20] I wonder if you could walk us through how you actually do that.

[21] So for the past few months, I've been every, you know, a few weeks I've been going to Doha, the small Gulf state of Qatar.

[22] And it's an excruciating trip because there are a lot of tensions in the region.

[23] In Saudi Arabia, there's a big blockade against Qatar.

[24] So a trip that would take two, three hours, takes me a full day of travel through Istanbul to get there.

[25] But once we get there, the routine is largely similar.

[26] The American diplomats stay in these sort of luxury hotels.

[27] The Taliban, a lot of them have houses there because they've been based there for a long time.

[28] But in the mornings, they all come to this small diplomatic club.

[29] And what happens is as soon as you walk in, they take your phones away.

[30] and you walk through your scanners and you know you put your notebooks or anything you have through the scanner and it's this beautiful marble floor small club and members of the media were barely allowed access to the diplomatic club it's a lot of sort of cat and mouse sometimes we're actually kicked out sometimes we make our way in we negotiate and then one of the American diplomats helps in until Zakahtari guards it's okay for us to be there as long as we stay in this corner cafe they go upstairs to this more private space where the negotiations happen so i usually just make my way to the cafe every time i take this same seat at the cafe which has a view of the lobby so at least i have a view of when the sessions have ended you know who is walking around i have a good view and then most of my day is spend you know doing crossword puzzles reading a book ordering a lot of coffee after coffee, and then sort of I have an eye for the negotiations routine as to when they're going to take their break.

[31] And then I kind of try to plan my bathroom break around that.

[32] So I may naturally run into one of them in the lobby.

[33] It's a lot of reading faces, a lot of reading, you know, what mood is the chief negotiator in as he walks out?

[34] Are they, you know, standing in a are the hands waving and are they angry at each other?

[35] Is somebody walking out in anger?

[36] But both sides have been really, really disciplined during these eight and nine months.

[37] So it's tricky work trying to understand what's actually going on upstairs behind closed doors.

[38] On the American side, there's a lot more interaction and they engage with the media more.

[39] But on the Taliban side, these are insurgent leaders that we had only known names of for years.

[40] It's the first time we're seeing their faces.

[41] It's the first time we're in the same space with them.

[42] Some of them is for the first time they're using phones in years because they were afraid of being tracked down and hit by a drone.

[43] So it's in that context that one needs to rely on a lot of creative ways of creating comfort and creating trust.

[44] And sometimes that means lucky breaks also.

[45] I mean for a couple of the nights in one of the rounds, I happened to have a room just above the room of their chief negotiator.

[46] And one of the other negotiators was leaving session and I said, hey, it would be great if we could have a conversation.

[47] And he said, where are you staying?

[48] And I told him the room number.

[49] He was like, oh, that's just above from us.

[50] So maybe I'll find you there.

[51] And it was late in the evening and I was typing an online version of the story and there was a knock on the door.

[52] And I was I was in shorts and I quickly put on a shirt and I buttoned up a few of the buttons and I opened the door.

[53] It was one of the negotiators standing in the doorway with a plate of cookies and dried fruit.

[54] He said, I'm away from home.

[55] You guys are away from home and one of our friends dropped off some cookies in and dried fruit and I wanted to share.

[56] Yeah, I was surprised.

[57] And I said, well, sir, come on in.

[58] And he came into the room and he sat in one of the And I, for a second, I thought, I can't tell this guy.

[59] I'm sorry, sir, I have to file a story.

[60] New York is waiting in a story.

[61] It's like, this is, when else do you get an opportunity for a midnight conversation with one of the most senior leaders of Taliban?

[62] When do you, indeed?

[63] When do you indeed?

[64] And I, so, so I just closed my laptop and I sat down.

[65] And I noticed he was staring at the ceiling as we were having this conversation.

[66] And so we're talking about, you know, the political reality of Afghanistan, what these negotiations could mean for ending the war, and he's not making eye contact.

[67] A couple of times I had talked to him before, he was totally fine, and now he's not making eye contact.

[68] During this conversation, he slowly reached out for a pillow, and he put it on my knees because I was wearing shorts.

[69] Why?

[70] Just gently, he said, anything above the knees is private.

[71] it.

[72] What he meant was I was showing too much skin.

[73] So for the next 40 minutes or so, I'm holding this pillow on my lap, covering my knees as we continue a serious conversation about the political future of Afghanistan.

[74] This is a shadowy movement.

[75] We don't know a lot about the leaders of these groups.

[76] And here's an opportunity to try to understand what do they think?

[77] What are their feelings about this stuff.

[78] So it's as much been an education in trying to understand what context they're coming with to these talks and these negotiations.

[79] Okay, so let's talk about what these negotiations that you're trying so hard to understand are actually about.

[80] What exactly is being negotiated there in Qatar?

[81] So the most fundamental framework is this.

[82] there has to be an American troop withdrawal.

[83] There are about 14 ,000 American troops and a few thousand NATO allies in the country right now.

[84] The Taliban have said the cornerstone of a peace deal has to be the withdrawal of those foreign troops.

[85] In return for that withdrawal, the Americans are asking assurances from the Taliban that they will not harbor international terror groups like al -Qaeda again.

[86] The other thing that the Americans have, gotten the Taliban to basically agree to is once a schedule for the withdrawal of American troops is announced, the Taliban will sit down with other Afghans, including the country's government, to iron out the political future after the U .S. in this military presence.

[87] The Taliban have all along said they would negotiate with the U .S. first about the foreign occupation, and then they will move into talking about the political questions of what happens to the future of Afghanistan.

[88] That means power sharing, that means changes in the Constitution, that means things like that.

[89] But what is important is all of those discussions will be happening under a ticking clock because the U .S. withdrawal would have started.

[90] So when these negotiations started, the Taliban are saying, we want you out in months.

[91] And the U .S. were saying, no, no, no, we need a couple of years.

[92] at least, three years or something like that.

[93] And then the Taliban are like, no, we want you out in months.

[94] And then the U .S. had to bring military experts to the negotiating table to actually explain to the Taliban how logistically ending an 18 -year military presence simply cannot happen in a matter of months.

[95] So it's been bargaining and negotiating.

[96] And the timeline we think they've reached is about 16 or 15 months.

[97] something like that.

[98] The U .S. is willing to kind of give in to a shorter timeline because U .S. has domestic calculations also.

[99] President Trump wants out as fast as the Taliban before these negotiations even started.

[100] Afghanistan is a total and complete disaster.

[101] What are we doing?

[102] President Trump was very open about his desire to leave.

[103] Get out of Afghanistan.

[104] We've wasted billions and billions of dollars, and more importantly, thousands and thousands of lives.

[105] So when you're coming to that table, you've already telegraphed giving what the other side would be demanding before you've even negotiated anything.

[106] So the U .S. actually gave up a good deal of its leverage at the very beginning of these negotiations because President Trump said he wanted to get out.

[107] Yeah, yeah.

[108] So perhaps my assumption here is wrong that the United States has that much more leverage than the Taliban, as you're saying, in fact, these are kind of co -equals in Doha inside these rooms.

[109] Pretty much.

[110] The U .S. actually might be even more desperate for this deal than the Taliban.

[111] We'll be right back.

[112] So what is the tension in these negotiations, Mujib, if both sides really want a deal?

[113] I think the most fundamental thing is that there's a deep level of mistrust from both sides.

[114] So one of the reasons why these negotiations have dragged on for so long is partially, when you look at the history of the 18 years, there are a bunch of other opportunities when the Taliban reached out and wanted and negotiated settlement to the war.

[115] And the U .S. basically said no. And it kept growing more complicated.

[116] So now that the U .S. is initiating these talks and the Taliban are sitting down, that history is in the back of the Taliban's mind, saying how could we trust that you're serious about a deal and that you're not using talks to undermine us?

[117] And the same, on the other hand, for the American negotiators, the question is, well, these are militants.

[118] These are people who are ally with Al -Qaeda.

[119] These are people who are still carrying out suicide bombings.

[120] These are the same people.

[121] So that creates a lot of mistrust for the Americans also.

[122] So the most fundamental thing is there's mistrust from both sides.

[123] And that means everywhere they're negotiating over.

[124] Everything is negotiated and parsed and discussed and reviewed.

[125] And the way it happens is that they have the text of the agreement on the screen, right?

[126] And every time they go through a sentence and they agree to it, the color of that text changes, I think, from red to black.

[127] But then somebody says something else the next day, that sentence that they had agreed to changes.

[128] color again, it goes back red and it.

[129] So it's that kind of environment of mistrust that makes this process so complicated.

[130] And then there are issues like when the U .S. asked the Taliban to break away from terrorist groups like al -Qaeda, the Taliban turned that into an emotional discussion and say, what do you mean by terrorists?

[131] Because for you, we could be terrorists.

[132] For us, you could be terrorists.

[133] Let's discuss a definitely.

[134] of what is terrorism.

[135] So you're sitting around this table going at things like that for days, for hours, and sometimes these negotiations go to like 2 .30 in the morning.

[136] The scene you're laying out is pretty stunning, the dynamics, because when you think of the military power represented in that room, the United States, what its military is, and this kind of rag -tag group of Taliban fighters, and what you're saying is, for all intents and purposes, the power dynamics here over the question of Afghanistan's future is equalized.

[137] Absolutely.

[138] It's kind of emotional on both sides also.

[139] When they walk into that room, on the one hand, you've got these Taliban leaders, about half of the delegation across from them, spend at least a decade in prison.

[140] The chief negotiator spent 10 years in Pakistani prison.

[141] He was tortured.

[142] He's in bad shape.

[143] then another five or six of them spend about a decade in U .S. detention in Guantanamo.

[144] Across from them, you've got the Chief American Envoy, 30, 40 years of diplomatic experience.

[145] He's a former ambassador to the UN, to Iraq, to Afghanistan, next to him, you know, military generals in uniform, who a lot of them rose through the ranks in this war, you know, got their stars, who've lost friends, who've lost colleagues in this war, each one of them have served several tours of Afghanistan.

[146] Now sitting to negotiate the end of a war, they couldn't win.

[147] It is very clear they couldn't win.

[148] And in the past few weeks, it's kind of become clear that the military is dragging its feet.

[149] It's partially a concern about what threats might remain in Afghanistan after a deal of Taliban, but it's actually partially emotional also that a deal would mean they lost this war.

[150] Mujib, you said earlier that this deal is just the first step, that the U .S. and the Taliban have to reach an agreement to end this war before Afghanistan as a country can start to figure out what it's going to look like moving forward.

[151] How have the two sides been talking about that next step in these negotiations?

[152] How has the Taliban been talking about it?

[153] They're very vague, and I think deliberately vague.

[154] They say we want basic rights for women according to Islam.

[155] We want freedom of press as long as it's aligned with Islamic values.

[156] But the people contrast their statements to the way they actually exercised power.

[157] a Taliban that when it ruled, it was a fundamentalist theocracy that did not allow women to go to school, that did not allow women to work, that banned music, that banned television, that banned free media.

[158] And that's why they're skeptical.

[159] And what about the U .S. representatives that you talked to there?

[160] Does it seem like they're prioritizing the interests of Afghans and the preservation of a democracy?

[161] there.

[162] They are being as vague.

[163] They are saying a lot of these issues of what the future society look like, what the power sharing would look like, what the values would look like are discussions between Afghans.

[164] They are basically trying to prioritize and end to their costly military presence here.

[165] But they're hoping to do it in a way where it could be linked to maintaining some of the current freedoms and liberties.

[166] Girls' education, women's rights to basic freedoms, free press.

[167] All of that is fragile and all of that is new and all of that has been to a large extent dependent on support from the U .S. But they're leaving the discussions on all of those basic freedoms and liberties to the next stage of the process when it's only Afghans negotiating with Afghans.

[168] And the fear is that once those discussions arrive, the U .S. leverage, and by extension, the leverage of the Afghan democratic system has supported would have been reduced in the face of a Taliban that will see the U .S. withdrawal as a victory.

[169] So when we get to the next stage of negotiations, one side that is supported by the U .S. will be weakened.

[170] The other side that has fought off the U .S., that has forced the U .S. into a withdrawal, will be in this sort of rush of victory.

[171] It will not be an equal negotiation.

[172] In this debate between two clashing visions of society of governance, the side that is, the side that it is, is so dependent on the U .S. feels like the U .S. is caving in to the Taliban demands.

[173] And they don't know what the limits of the U .S. compromise the Taliban is.

[174] Their partners in this new way of life might be abandoning them.

[175] Thank you, Mujib.

[176] Thanks, Michael.

[177] On Monday afternoon, the chief U .S. envoy to Afghanistan said that the U .S. had, in principle, finalized an agreement with the Taliban.

[178] Under the plan, 5 ,400 troops would pull out of Afghanistan within 135 days, marking the start of a gradual withdrawal of all 14 ,000 U .S. troops that could end the war.

[179] President Trump must still sign off on the agreement.

[180] We'll be right back.

[181] Here's what else you need to Notre Dame.

[182] This is probably the most saddened and...

[183] worst state of my life to address the Bahamian people.

[184] We're facing a hurricane, Hurricane Dorian, that one that we've never seen in the history of Bahamas.

[185] On Monday, Hurricane Dorian made landfall in the Bahamas as a devastating Category 4 storm, with winds and storm surge that killed at least five people, flooded neighborhoods, ripped roofs off buildings, and turned homes into piles of debris.

[186] And this is the water by my back door and glass that's came from the canal.

[187] That height has to be about 20 to 25 feet, about sea level.

[188] So this is what I'm facing at the moment.

[189] And I have neighbors that are in a far worse position than me and my family.

[190] The storm proved unusually destructive because of its slow movement across the islands, where it lingered for nearly 24 hours, and because many in the Bahamas stayed in their homes.

[191] Oh my God, Angie, the window.

[192] Give you car seat.

[193] You need help.

[194] Please, someone, please come help us.

[195] In the U .S., where the storm is expected to arrive later today, evacuation orders affecting more than a million people have been issued in at least three states, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

[196] As forecasters try to predict precisely where it will make landfall.

[197] And...

[198] It started beginning.

[199] The situation started about 317 this afternoon when a DPS trooper attempted to stop a go -punct.

[200] Police say that the Texas gunman who used an AR -15 -style assault rifle to kill at least seven people and injure 22 others over the weekend had just been fired from his job as a trucker.

[201] When the DPS tree person got the car stop, he was then shot by and got in the car.

[202] The vehicle continued westbound into the city of Odessa and shot an individual at high 20 in our resolution.

[203] The man seemed to fire indiscriminately at pedestrians, motorists, and police officers throughout two towns, Midland and Odessa, before he was killed by authorities.

[204] drove on our to 42nd Street where there are multiple scenes and multiple victims.

[205] The Times reports that the mass shooting, the 283rd this year, and the second in Texas in a month, will increase pressure on Congress to bring forward gun safety legislation when it returns to Washington next week.

[206] That's it for the daily.

[207] I'm Michael Babaro.

[208] See you tomorrow.