Morning Wire XX
[0] For the first time in five years, a U .S. Secretary of State met with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing in an effort to cool tensions between the two nations.
[1] We have differences on a wide range of issues, and we're going to be clear and candid about those issues.
[2] Why is the timing of this trip significant?
[3] And how does artificial intelligence play into negotiations?
[4] I'm Daily Wire, editor -in -chief John Bickley, with Georgia Howe.
[5] It's Monday, June 19th, and this is Morning Wire.
[6] I'm going to run for president.
[7] I'm going to run for your children.
[8] Amid a broadening GOP primary contest and with federal charges now filed against the GOP's leading candidate, new presidential polling reveals where voters stand.
[9] And after Congress avoided defaulting on our national debt, a new battle over congressional spending is beginning to take form.
[10] How are Republicans proposing to make cuts?
[11] And why do Democrats say it could cause a government shutdown?
[12] Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire.
[13] Stay tuned.
[14] We have the news you need to know.
[15] Sunday, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made a highly anticipated visit to Beijing, meeting with China's foreign minister amid strained relations between the two superpowers.
[16] Here is more on the high -stakes meeting and what it means for U .S. China relations is Daily Wire's senior editor, Cabot Phillips.
[17] Cabot, a big meeting here amid an increasingly tense relationship with China.
[18] Paint the scene for us.
[19] Yeah, it's a big deal anytime high -ranking officials from China and the U .S. agreed to sit down, but this meeting was especially important as it marked the first time that a cabinet level official has visited China since 2019.
[20] The two sides met for around seven hours in a series of large and then smaller meetings, kept off with a formal dinner, which the State Department called, quote, direct and productive.
[21] According to reports, the two sides discussed a range of geopolitical and economic topics, including expanding the number of commercial flights between the two countries, increasing trade, and encouraging the exchange of more students and business people.
[22] After the meeting, China's foreign minister, Chingang, announced that he agreed to come to the U .S. for the next round of talks.
[23] And remember, this visit was initially scheduled for back in February, but was postponed after the Chinese flew a spy balloon over U .S. airspace in that blatant move that really frayed the relationship.
[24] Right, that prompted that abrupt cancellation.
[25] Yes.
[26] And in the months since, China has rebuffed a number of invitations for a sit -down.
[27] So the fact this one went off without a hitch is a positive sign of diplomatic progress.
[28] Right.
[29] Why did the meeting happen now?
[30] What went into the timing?
[31] Well, there seemed to be two main goals from a Chinese perspective.
[32] First, officials in Beijing have been clear.
[33] that they want President Xi Jinping to attend an upcoming summit of Asia -Pacific leaders that will be held in the U .S. in San Francisco this November.
[34] By opening up that relationship this month, they sort of paved the way for that visit to happen, and there are reports that she could meet with Biden when he does come.
[35] But more importantly, the Chinese have a clear economic incentive to open up relations with the U .S. Throughout the last year, the Biden administration has urged American allies, including Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands to implement sanctions against Chinese companies and restrict exports of high -tech chips and other sensitive technology.
[36] To this point, those countries have been on the fence about pulling out of the Chinese market, though.
[37] And Beijing is trying to discourage them from doing so by showing that they're willing to cooperate with the U .S. and can be open to negotiations.
[38] And what about from a U .S. perspective?
[39] Why hold this meeting at this particular moment?
[40] So the Biden administration has been clear that they want to cool military tensions.
[41] Remember, since the U .S. shot down that spy balloon, we've seen a number of cases where Chinese military planes and ships have antagonized American craft.
[42] And both sides have stepped up the war of words in response.
[43] Despite the tough talk, though, Biden has been clear that he wants to avoid conflict at all costs.
[44] And the president is also under pressure from the business community.
[45] Many business leaders have been furious at the administration's restrictions on certain tech exports, and they want to see a more open economic relationship between the two countries.
[46] On that note, Secretary Blinken will be meeting this month with business leaders to hear their concerns and explain Biden's position.
[47] And as always, there's a political side here as well.
[48] If President Biden can score some sort of diplomatic agreement that leads to friendlier relations with our largest adversary, it could be useful in his upcoming re -election campaign.
[49] Right.
[50] This all comes amid new concerns over China's development and implementation of AI.
[51] How does that play into this?
[52] Yeah, this is interesting.
[53] So a big part of the Biden administration crackdown on U .S. companies doing business with China is because of worries over how that technology, especially AI, could be used by the Chinese military.
[54] They've been clear that maintaining a technological advantage over China is more important than maintaining strong economic ties.
[55] On that front, in the coming months, Biden is expected to introduce an executive order that will block U .S. private equity and venture capital from being invested in Chinese tech companies, mainly to prevent U .S. companies from inadvertently aiding the Chinese military in their quest to develop new tech.
[56] Because the Chinese Communist Party essentially controls all businesses in the country, any technology sold to a Chinese company can and will be used by the military.
[57] So the White House is in a tough spot where they want to encourage economic growth and allow exports.
[58] Remember, China is our largest trading partner.
[59] But simultaneously, they want to ensure that trade doesn't strengthen the Chinese military.
[60] It's a precarious balancing act to watch in the coming months.
[61] Yeah, it is.
[62] Cabot, thanks for reporting.
[63] Anytime.
[64] Coming up, how Americans are viewing the presidential candidates amid historic federal charges and looming investigations.
[65] With the field of candidates for the 2024 presidential election, all but filled in, new polling reveals, where we stand as the race begins in earnest.
[66] Thus far, the numbers have featured a substantial lead for Donald Trump and the Republican contest and a surprisingly strong showing by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the Democrat side.
[67] Here to help us set the table is Daily Wire contributor David Marcus.
[68] So, David, where do we stand at this somewhat unprecedented point in campaigning?
[69] Morning.
[70] Yeah, it's a whole new ballgame with one of the leading candidates facing federal charges.
[71] So as usual, how you perceive how things are shaping up, partly depending on.
[72] on the polls that you look at.
[73] A very recent Harvard Harris poll shows a pretty shocking 59 to 14 point lead for Trump over Ron DeSantis.
[74] That's significantly larger than we've seen before, but the averages have been pretty stubborn in the neighborhood of a 30 -point Trump lead.
[75] And that's been true even after DeSantis' announcement and Trump's second indictment.
[76] Mike Pence is generally third in the high single digits.
[77] On the Democrat side, RFK Jr. is still in the 15 to 20 % range, and it's starting to look like that might stick, provided that is that a more accomplished Democrat doesn't dive in.
[78] Right.
[79] And of course, it's obviously very early.
[80] There hasn't even been a single debate at this point.
[81] Now, looking at the GOP numbers, where is the race right now?
[82] And do you think DeSantis can actually tighten it up?
[83] The most important dynamic on the Republican side is that as it stands now, Trump can win pretty easily without converting a single current DeSantis voter.
[84] Whereas the Florida governor needs about half of current Trump supporters.
[85] You hear pundits saying that the Santas needs to punch back harder at Trump, but this is the problem.
[86] If he turns off too many Trump fans, he risks creating a gap that he can't close.
[87] I think this is why this weekend you saw him tending bar with veterans at a VFW.
[88] His campaign wants to make this about him and craft his image as an alternative to Trump, hoping that he can start to peel away at some of the big lead for the former president.
[89] But he's also taking subtle shots about getting away from, quote, the culture of losing.
[90] Now, where does that leave Trump?
[91] He's had obviously more than just campaigning to do over the past few days.
[92] He's facing now a second indictment.
[93] Right.
[94] Right now, I think the attitude in Trump world is understandably, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
[95] The attacks on DeSantis have mellowed a bit.
[96] Mostly now, they're just nicknames and mocking his poll numbers.
[97] But clearly, Trump sees these indictments as a positive for his campaign and not for nothing.
[98] The numbers seem to bear it out.
[99] Now, looking at the other side, RFK Jr. is still hanging around.
[100] What does his polling look like right now?
[101] And is his candidacy actually getting serious?
[102] He is hanging around.
[103] Even as his more controversial views on vaccines and other issues are getting more play, a lot of Democrats thought that once that happened, his numbers would decline.
[104] But they haven't.
[105] And I think there's a real question as to whether other Democrats, and by other Democrats, I mean California Governor Gavin Newsom, might be eyeing these polls with some sparkle in their eyes and hunger in the belly that fancy restaurants like French laundry can't satiate.
[106] Now, finally, let's talk about Biden's approval numbers.
[107] They continue to slide.
[108] How low have they gotten at this point?
[109] And speaking of Newsom, do you think Democrats are getting worried?
[110] Biden's numbers are historically awful.
[111] He got no bounce from the debt ceiling deal.
[112] There's really no issue where the American people trust him.
[113] he's double digits underwater on the economy, foreign policy, immigration, direction of the economy, it's a mess.
[114] And of course, Democrats are worried.
[115] Let's not forget that once a week some new damning piece of evidence regarding bribery or corruption is coming out of the Republican -controlled House of Representatives.
[116] It's hard not to think about when the last possible moment that Biden could pull out is because there are still a lot of questions on multiple fronts about whether he can see this campaign now.
[117] Right.
[118] Well, David, thanks so much for coming on today.
[119] Thanks for having me. After having staved off a projected default on the U .S. government debt through a deal with President Biden to raise the debt ceiling, House Republicans are now reportedly working to cut federal spending through appropriations committees.
[120] And Democrats are warning that it could lead to a government shutdown.
[121] Here to discuss is Brandon Arnold, executive vice president of the National Taxpayers Union.
[122] Brandon, thanks for joining us.
[123] So what is happening now between Democrats and Republicans with this battle over spending?
[124] Yeah, I mean, there's a big fight over how much the government should spend next year.
[125] And we all know that they've spent far too much over the past few years that pandemic caused the government to spend trillions and trillions of dollars.
[126] And now Republicans are really putting their foot down.
[127] And the Freedom Caucus and the more conservative faction of the House Republicans in particular are saying enough is enough.
[128] And they're refusing to abide by even the deal that was struck a couple weeks ago in the Fiscal Responsibility Act and demanding larger, spending cuts.
[129] Of course, the Democrats aren't playing along this time, so we're looking at what could be an enormous standoff between Republicans and Democrats.
[130] So in the debt limit deal, the Fiscal Responsibility Act, the spending limits were set at 24 levels, but now Kevin McCarthy is instructing Republicans to spend less.
[131] What is his rationale?
[132] Yeah, basically, he has such a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.
[133] He can only afford to lose five votes and far more than five members of his conference said, we're not going to pass bills at this level.
[134] So they had to get back to square one.
[135] They had to recalculate what the conference was willing to pass.
[136] And the Appropriations Committee and leadership and the Freedom Caucus, they all agreed that they could pass bills if they've reduced that top line spending number by more than $100 billion.
[137] So that is what they've set out to do.
[138] They've started to move bills to the process that appropriate funding at this much lower level than was agreed to in the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
[139] How much money are we actually talking about here?
[140] For 2024, the defense cap was set at $886 billion, which is significantly more than the non -defense cap, $704 billion.
[141] So you're looking at about just under $1 .6 trillion this year.
[142] So, you know, we are looking at reducing spending or flatlining spending.
[143] I think the fight has just really begun here, and these numbers are going to, in all likely, change because of this negotiated process here, which has become extraordinarily divisive.
[144] So I think it's likely the House of Pass bills that are lower than this agreed upon number.
[145] And then the Senate has been pretty inactive, to put it euphemistically, over the past several months.
[146] We'll see if they're able to actually pass any kind of legislation through the appropriations process, but there's zero willingness on the part of Patty Murray, who chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, to go even a nickel below it, the fiscal responsibility act calls for.
[147] Now, even with the raising of the debt limit, as of right now, there are about 100 days of government funding left.
[148] Do you expect Congress to fund the government or should we brace for a potential shutdown this fall?
[149] I think a shutdown as possible.
[150] The first inflection point would be the end of September.
[151] That's the end of the fiscal year.
[152] If they haven't reached some sort of deal, either final appropriations bills, which seems unlikely at this point, or past a continuing resolution, then we would encounter a government shutdown.
[153] I think a continuing resolution.
[154] All that does is basically say we're going to continue to fund the government at current levels for a certain period of time.
[155] I think that's quite likely.
[156] But the next inflection point is set by the Fiscal Responsibility Act, and that is January 1, 2024.
[157] Because if we're still operating under a continuing resolution at that point, then there's a 1 % across -the -board cut to discretionary spending, something that I don't think Republicans or Democrats really want to see, because that could affect both the domestic programs that Democrats like, as well as the defense programs that Republicans tend to like.
[158] Notable that even just a 1 % cut is a no -go for both sides.
[159] Brandon, thanks for joining us.
[160] Any time.
[161] Thank you.
[162] That was Brandon Arnold of the National Taxpayers Union.
[163] That's all the time we've got this morning.
[164] Thanks for waking up with us.
[165] We'll be back later this afternoon with more news you need to know.