87. The Season of Death

[0] From APM, American Public Media and WNYC, this is Freakonomics Radio on Marketplace.

[1] Here's the host of Marketplace, Hi Rizdahl.

[2] Time now for a little bit of Freakonomics Radio, that moment in the broadcast every couple of weeks where we talk to Stephen Dubner, the co -author of the books and the blog of the same name.

[3] It is the hidden side of everything.

[4] Dubner, it is so good to talk to you again, man. And to you, Kai.

[5] I missed you too.

[6] How's your summer been?

[7] Good, busy, busy, but good.

[8] Good.

[9] Tis, of course, the season for outdoor activity, some of which I'm here to tell you can have a very significant downside.

[10] What?

[11] What?

[12] Like sunburn and mosquito, but what?

[13] No, I'm actually talking about death.

[14] So I hate to be a killjoy in the middle of summer.

[15] Okay.

[16] But I thought it might be worthwhile to look at the relative danger of some of America's favorite summertime activities.

[17] Okay.

[18] So let's start with motorcycling.

[19] Here's Randa Samaha from the National Crash Analysis Center.

[20] Okay.

[21] Motorcyclists are very vulnerable road users.

[22] For every hundred million vehicle mile travel, there are over 24 riders killed.

[23] So when I was 20 -something years old, I told my grandfather that I wanted to buy a motorcycle and he said, I would sooner kill you with my bare hands.

[24] He was a doctor.

[25] Good advice, okay.

[26] I don't know if you own a boat, Kai.

[27] The boating statistics are a little bit frightening.

[28] Here's Mike Barron with the U .S. Coast Guard.

[29] We're roughly down to about, you know, say, 6 .2 down.

[30] per every 100 ,000 boats.

[31] And swimming, something most of us do.

[32] I do a lot of that in the summer.

[33] Here's Julie Gilchrist with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

[34] Overall, the drowning rate in the United States for all ages is 1 .29 per 100 ,000.

[35] And I couldn't find any stats on golfing desk.

[36] That's what I spend, you know, my free time.

[37] I think that's relatively safe.

[38] But skydiving, here's Nancy Corrine from the U .S. Parachute Association.

[39] There's been an average of maybe 22 fatality.

[40] a year, which is about seven per one million skydives.

[41] Okay, wait.

[42] So seven per million versus all those others, which is not so many.

[43] Yeah, no, not so bad, right?

[44] So, you know, the motorcycle death rate is based on the number of miles traveled.

[45] Swimming deaths, meanwhile, are counted on a per capita basis, skydiving deaths based on the number of jumps.

[46] And, of course, a lot fewer people go skydiving every year than go swimming.

[47] Help me out here, though, for economics, Obi -Wan.

[48] What is the message here?

[49] Are we, oh, I know what it is.

[50] We're scared of the wrong thing.

[51] That is exactly right.

[52] Human beings are generally quite bad at assessing risk.

[53] We tend to get worried about the big anomalous events, shark attacks, for instance, which on average kill fewer.

[54] Well, they are scary and they get a lot of news coverage.

[55] And then when they get a lot of news coverage, we're convinced that they're a lot more common than they are.

[56] five people on average worldwide die from unprovoked shark attacks.

[57] Meanwhile, in the U .S. alone, in a given year, 4 ,500 people die from motorcycle accidents and another 4 ,000 or so from drowning.

[58] Yeah, but here's the thing.

[59] I could step off the curb in front of Marketplace Global Headquarters here this afternoon on my way to get a copy.

[60] God forbid, but yes, you could.

[61] And I could be hit by a bus.

[62] I mean, what am I supposed to do?

[63] Well, you're going to do what you want to do.

[64] And I'm not saying you should be overly scared of things you shouldn't be.

[65] But there is a lot to learn at looking at.

[66] at these numbers, just taking a step back and doing it.

[67] One piece of data that really jumps out at you is this, the ability of alcohol to help make bad things happen.

[68] Okay, so listen to this.

[69] About 30 % of all motorcyclists who died were legally drunk.

[70] The Coast Guard tells us that alcohol was the primary contributing factor in about 16 % of the boating fatalities.

[71] What about skydiving?

[72] I mean, people don't drink in skydiving either.

[73] You know, there are no hard and fast stats on it.

[74] We did ask, here's Nancy Corrine again from the end.

[75] parachute association.

[76] For the most part, skydivers aren't really interested in doing that kind of thing.

[77] Skydiving is fun enough.

[78] You're having a good time and, you know, why would you add that extra element of risk?

[79] You know, Kai, this raises an interesting point.

[80] If an activity is prima facie dangerous, maybe it scares people away from adding a layer of danger by drinking, you know?

[81] Yeah, but hang on a minute, right?

[82] Because motorcycling is prima facie, although I always thought it was prima facie, but it's prima facie dangerous, but people drink in motorcycle all the time.

[83] Well, to some people, it is, and to some people plainly it's not.

[84] I mean, I tend to agree with you, especially riding bike without a helmet.

[85] Helmets are estimated to prevent about 40 % of crash deaths among motorcyclists, and yet there are a lot of bikers out there who would much prefer to ride a bike than to not and to ride a bike without a helmet.

[86] Look, if safety is your number one concern this summer, not saying it should be, but if it is, I've got the ultimate activity for you and everybody out there.

[87] All right, what's up?

[88] Hit me with it.

[89] You stay inside, you listen to your radio.

[90] Stephen Dover.

[91] Taking the cowards way out.

[92] That's right.

[93] Hey, man. I'm all right with that.

[94] Hey, podcast listeners.

[95] Coming up on next week's podcast, the second half of our two -part episode, Freakonomics, goes to college.

[96] The central question, is a college degree really worth all that money and effort?

[97] And I asked Steve Levitt about the magic that happens in the college classroom.

[98] Obviously, I teach my students.

[99] I teach them very specific things.

[100] But I know that when I talk to them years later, they don't remember anything that I taught them.

[101] I mean, I can ask them the most simple questions about the material we covered and they have no recollection whatsoever that are typical students.

[102] That's next time on Freakonomics Radio.