The Prospect of Peace With North Korea

[0] From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro.

[1] This is the Daily.

[2] Today, the time and place for a historic meeting between the President of the United States and the leader of North Korea have been said.

[3] Does President Trump get credit for the diplomatic breakthrough on the Korean Peninsula?

[4] It's Monday, May 14th.

[5] This is a Fox News alert, North Korean dictator Kim Jong -un, has proposed a face -to -face meeting with President Trump about his country's nuclear weapons program.

[6] And President Trump said, yes, it would be the first face -to -face encounter between any leaders of those two countries.

[7] Wow, we thought this would go forward in baby steps.

[8] It's not.

[9] It's going in huge leaps.

[10] I mean, nobody thought that anything like this could ever happen unless it was under the most extraordinary of circumstances.

[11] President Trump tweeted, we will both try to make it a very special moment for world peace.

[12] Nick, the last time that we talked to you on the daily, you had just gotten back from North Korea, and you described a new level of menace in the air there that you hadn't felt before in your previous visits.

[13] President Trump at that moment was issuing explicit threats against North Korea, and conflict, you told us, seemed quite imminent.

[14] But here we are a little more than six months later, and the United States and North Korea are on the verge of this historic summit, with both sides saying that peace could be on the table in those talks.

[15] So what happened?

[16] Michael, last time I was all kind of doom and gloom, and now it's all sweetness and light, which slightly undermines my credibility as a North Korea forecaster.

[17] Nick Christoph has repeatedly traveled to North Korea for the times.

[18] Here's what I think happened.

[19] I think that President Trump made these very explicit threats that were meant to intimidate North Korea.

[20] The United States has great strength and patience.

[21] But if it is forced to defend itself for its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.

[22] And they probably had some impact along that way.

[23] From North Korea, a unique threat and from Kim Jong -un, a first message in English, vowing to make President Trump, quote, pay dearly, calling him a mentally deranged dootard, or senile old man for threatening to destroy North Korea in his UN speech Tuesday.

[24] But who the American threats really just scared the bejesus out of was South Korea.

[25] Certainly here in South Korea, people are alarmed by the rhetoric.

[26] And yes, they're used to what comes out of North Korea.

[27] They are not used to it coming out of the mouth of the U .S. president.

[28] They are in disbelief, thinking that he is, in fact, escalating tensions here on the Korean peninsula.

[29] And they are saying that it's not.

[30] just irresponsible, but very, very dangerous.

[31] I think South Korea was very concerned that the U .S. would launch a military strike on North Korea.

[32] The U .S. was calling this the bloody nose strategy.

[33] Which is literally to bloody the nose of the north.

[34] Yeah, to kind of teach a lesson, it put a little fear of God into them.

[35] And the South Koreans were terrified because it might have worked, but I think many people felt it was more likely the North Korea would promptly respond by reigning.

[36] artillery down on South Korea and on its capital, Seoul.

[37] Whether or not North Korea can send an ICBM crashing into Los Angeles, it can definitely destroy Seoul.

[38] North Korea has thousands of pieces of artillery pointed at the South.

[39] It's estimated if they were to unleash those, 64 ,000 people would die in South Korea in just the first day.

[40] And so the South Koreans were really scared about President Trump's rhetoric and really scared.

[41] And really scared.

[42] about the actions that he might unleash.

[43] So the South is seeing this kind of one, two, three that ends with them being bombed.

[44] That's correct.

[45] And so President Moon Jae -N of South Korea, I think, was deeply motivated to see what could be done.

[46] And that led them to try to pursue alternatives to war, such as this incredible diplomatic process that we've been witnessing.

[47] A victory for Olympic diplomacy, North and South Korea reaching a deal on the winter games, claiming they have also paved the way for talks to reduce military tensions.

[48] Remarkable news overseas tonight.

[49] North Korean leader Kim Jong -un crossed the line dividing the demilitarized zone to meet with South Korean President Moon J .N. and what's being described as a historic summit.

[50] The moment was broadcast live all around the world.

[51] There is that moment.

[52] Kim and Moon smiled and shook hands across a concrete slab that marks the border.

[53] Kim made the first step, and just as Moon was about to escort Kim to the southern side of that border, Kim gestured to Moon to step across to his side.

[54] I'd never seen that.

[55] Both leaders stepping into each other's territory, lessening of tensions.

[56] Moon and Kim even planting a tree on the border to cement their pledge for peace.

[57] What's the argument that South Korea's president, Moon Giant, is making to North Korea's leader, Kim Jong -un, to get him to open himself up to this idea of diplomacy.

[58] I think the argument is that this is North Korea's chance to get out of sanctions, to open up the economy.

[59] China and the U .S. are double -teaming North Korea tonight, hitting Kim Jong -un in the wallet.

[60] President Trump really did put in much tougher sanctions beginning in the spring of 2017.

[61] While President Trump is widening sanctions North Korea's banker, China, is buckling to U .S. pressure and curtailing its services to Kim's government.

[62] And in particular, he got China and South Korea to go along with those.

[63] The U .S. obviously doesn't have much trade with North Korea.

[64] So it wasn't a matter so much of what we would do is particularly a matter what China would do.

[65] And China really went along.

[66] China accounts for 90 percent of North Korea's trade.

[67] So the onus is really on China to enforce those sanctions.

[68] Kim Jong -un really quite shrewdly perceived that economic sanctions, which had genuinely pinched the economy would be much, much harder to pursue at a time when everybody is all lovey -dovey and talking about peace, then there's much less interest in China and going on and going along with sanctions.

[69] And indeed, there's some evidence that China is already easing trade with North Korea.

[70] Where we are now is kind of a remarkable turn of events.

[71] But I still don't understand why North Korea would be willing to get rid of its nuclear arsenal, which they've spent decades building up.

[72] it's something that we've always understood to be its security blanket, its protection against the U .S. and our allies.

[73] That is a enormously important question.

[74] And I think the answer that most Korea watchers have is that, well, it probably isn't willing to give up its security blanket, but it's willing to pretend that it is.

[75] I think it's quite likely that North Korea will blow up some ICBMs.

[76] It will blow up its nuclear test site in front of television.

[77] Actually, the North Greens invited me to go watch that happen.

[78] Did they?

[79] They did.

[80] They want observers.

[81] Just recently.

[82] Yeah, just two or three weeks ago.

[83] Have you RSVPed?

[84] No, I frankly felt that that was kind of theatrical.

[85] And what I want is an interview with Kim Jong -un.

[86] I will be meeting with Kim Jong -un in the coming weeks.

[87] to discuss the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

[88] I told President Trump that in our meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong -un said he is committed to denuclearization.

[89] If it's clear to you that North Korea won't really give up its nuclear weapons.

[90] And not just you.

[91] Clear is, I mean, nothing is clear about North Korea, but I'd say likely.

[92] If you strongly suspect that North Korea will not give up as nuclear weapons, Why are South Korea and the United States acting and behaving as if they will?

[93] Our campaign of maximum pressure will continue until North Korea denuclearizes.

[94] The Republic of Korea, along with the United States, remain fully and resolutely committed to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

[95] This solves a lot of problems in the region.

[96] Talking about it as if it's happening.

[97] Yes, indeed.

[98] there was this crisis, and now we have this faith -saving alternative that means that at least for the next couple of years, perhaps there is a pathway that avoids war.

[99] So one way of looking at this is North Korea cheating by not fully denuclearizing, as promised.

[100] Another way is a great faith -saving approach that allows everybody to back away from war to begin talking about economic development and peace agreements instead of blowing each other up and then worry about the warheads at some point down the road.

[101] And maybe the North Korean regime will change.

[102] Maybe one can deal with it at that point.

[103] Hmm.

[104] What will happen inside of North Korea if its economy does open up, if foreign trade suddenly becomes reality in the country and if foreigners are suddenly in the north in a way they haven't been in the past?

[105] That's a really fascinating question.

[106] And North Korea, I think, is betting that it can allow in these outside influences and manage them.

[107] I'm frankly a little skeptical.

[108] I mean, I just think that when you, I've talked to so many North Korean defectors who basically believe the rhetoric and they believe in the system.

[109] And then maybe they visited China or maybe Russia.

[110] And all of a sudden, they realize that these other countries are so much wealthier.

[111] And they realize that everybody looks at the pin of their great leader on their jacket and kind of mocks them and laughs at them.

[112] And that really does change people's attitudes and makes them, I think, more questioning about their own regime.

[113] So I think over time that actually isolation helps preserve dictatorships and that this kind of openness and foreign investment, travelers going around, journalists asking difficult questions, I think that is not great for a regime's longevity.

[114] So you're saying that Kim is banking on the idea that opening up North Korea, especially its economy, that that won't jeopardize his hold on the country, but you're skeptical.

[115] You think he might actually be wrong, that this whole process might lead to a situation where his hold is less firm.

[116] That's right.

[117] Every home in North Korea has a speaker on the wall that feeds you propaganda from morning to night.

[118] And if you've also got foreigners who bring in the daily, then I just think that kind of undermines the regime monopoly on information.

[119] And I think that can be pretty dangerous for regimes like North Korea.

[120] But for everybody else, for South Korea, for the United States, for the global community, will opening up North Korea be a good thing?

[121] I think that opening up North Korea would be a terrific thing.

[122] I really do.

[123] I think it is still possible that we can be cheated on the denuclearization side and yet have a process that reduces the risk of war that ends up softening the regime.

[124] So we can be cheated on this, and it can still be a terrific thing for Northeast Asia.

[125] Given that all of this could end with a de -escalation in the possibility of war and a more open North Korea, even if it doesn't end in denuclearization, I wonder if President Trump deserves a lot of credit for starting all of this.

[126] The very things he was doing that scared you and everyone else into things.

[127] thinking that war was imminent, turned out to scare these other countries into taking action that has led us to what feels like this breakthrough moment.

[128] I think everybody was scared.

[129] And I do think that President Trump gets some genuine credit for having used a combination of sanctions, which were genuinely tightened and really hostile rhetoric, which just alarmed everybody to, in effect, throw up all the cards in the air and see what happened.

[130] And I think Moon Jae -N and Kim Jong -un took advantage of that in ways that create some real opportunities.

[131] So the credit you're saying he deserves is for scaring everyone into action, basically scaring everyone stiff.

[132] Yeah, if there were a Nobel for kind of the madman theory, then, yeah, he might qualify for that.

[133] Nixon originally developed the madman theory where you just terrify people into thinking you're going to do something completely crazy.

[134] And indeed, North Korea has, in many ways, pursued the madman theory over the decades.

[135] And President Trump, instead, to some degree, turned it around on them.

[136] And that kind of galvanized everybody to look for alternatives.

[137] South Korea is praising President Trump, saying his policies have definitely helped spark North Korea's willingness to discuss giving up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees.

[138] Well, and that seems to be the other piece of it.

[139] President Trump may have started it, but it was South Korea's president, Moon Jain, who seems to have taken the very scary position that Trump had put him in and turned it into a very good one.

[140] How much is this really about Moon Jain?

[141] I think President Moon gets a lot of credit.

[142] I think he was very skillful in handling President Trump and giving him credit in ways that I think were really very effective and that leaders around the world have noted and are trying to study.

[143] Here's the South Korean National Security Advisor.

[144] I explained to President Trump that his leadership and his maximum pressure policy, together with international solidarity, brought us to this juncture.

[145] I expressed President Moon Jae -in's personal gratitude for President.

[146] Mr. President, you have transformed the Korean Peninsula.

[147] Here we are with a problem that the world has struggled with for decades.

[148] And in just one year, your new approach has completely upended the equation.

[149] And people are talking about you for the Nobel Peace Prize.

[150] This is unbelievable what you've accomplished, Mr. President.

[151] That's very nice.

[152] Thank you.

[153] Trump supporters over the weekend were chanting the word Nobel.

[154] South Korean President Moon Jae -in, fresh office meeting with Kim Jong -J.

[155] Zhang Un agrees that President Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.

[156] Likewise, I think he was quite effective in managing Kim Jong -un, and in telling him, there's a real opportunity here for investment in your country's infrastructure, to transform your countries economically.

[157] President Moon has kind of framed this as here's North Korea's opportunity to find a new destiny and that Kim Jong -un can be this historical figure on the Korean Peninsula.

[158] So maybe the real story here is the peacemaker is the president of South Korea.

[159] I think he's played a really important role in this.

[160] I think he's also shrewd enough to desperately hope that he will never get a Nobel Peace Prize for fear of antagonizing President Trump.

[161] And Kim Jong -un.

[162] And Kim Jong -un.

[163] Thank you, Nick.

[164] Good to be with you.

[165] Over the weekend, the government of Kim Jong -un said it would invite Western journalists, including those from the U .S. to witness the destruction of its only known nuclear testing site in a controlled explosion that would seal off access to the underground facility.

[166] How big a development is this, and is that do we believe their only nuclear test site?

[167] Chris, it's good news.

[168] Every single site that the North Koreans have that can inflict risk upon the American people that is destroyed, eliminated, dismantled as good news for the American people.

[169] and for the world.

[170] And so this is one step along the way.

[171] In a series of interviews on Sunday, President Trump's Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, said that in return for full and verified denuclearization, North Korea would be rewarded with major economic investment from the U .S. Chris, here's what this will look like.

[172] This will be Americans coming in, private sector Americans, not the U .S. taxpayer.

[173] Private sector Americans coming in to help build out the energy grid They need enormous amounts of electricity in North Korea, to work with them to develop infrastructure, all the things that the North Korean people need, the capacity for American agricultural to support North Korea so they can eat meat and have healthy lives.

[174] Those are the kind of things that if we get what it is the President has demanded, the complete, verifiable, irreversible, denuclearization of North Korea that the American people will offer in spades.

[175] We'll be right back.

[176] Here's what else you need to know today.

[177] China and the United States maneuver on trade, ahead of the historic North Korea meeting next month, and unlikely obstacle has emerged, a Chinese electronics maker called ZTE.

[178] The company announced it would be going out of business after the U .S. banned the company from importing U .S. parts as punishment for violating American trade controls against North Korea and Iran by shipping its technology.

[179] to both countries.

[180] But on Sunday, in a surprise tweet, President Trump said he was working with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to rescue the company.

[181] Too many jobs in China lost, he wrote.

[182] Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done.

[183] President Trump's meeting with Kim Jong -un will hinge on China, which is functioning as a kind of intermediary to Kim.

[184] That's it for the Daily.

[185] I'm Michael Barbaro.

[186] See you tomorrow.