China, Russia and the Risk of a New Cold War

[0] From the New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi, and this is the Daily.

[1] On Monday, President Xi Jinping of China began his first official visit to Russia since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine.

[2] Today, my colleague Edward Wong explains what President Xi is really up to and why that's making people wonder whether a new cold war is underway.

[3] It's Tuesday, March 21st.

[4] So Ed, set the scene for us on Monday.

[5] President Xi Jinping arrives in Russia.

[6] What does it look like?

[7] Well, this is touted as a big state visit for President C. He touched down in Moscow, and then he was greeted with lots of fanfare.

[8] He walked off the plane onto a red carpet.

[9] There was a military ban there to welcome him.

[10] And then he stepped into a convoy to be taken to a lunch with President Putin.

[11] And then the two were supposed to hold informal talks throughout the afternoon at the Kremlin on Monday.

[12] And what will Putin and Xi be discussing?

[13] Like, why exactly is she there?

[14] Well, she and Putin have a very close personal affinity for each other.

[15] Before this trip, they had already met 39 times since she became China's leader in 2012.

[16] Wow, 39 times.

[17] Yeah.

[18] It's by far more than any other nation -to -nation leadership meeting that she has had.

[19] He's never met with any other leader nearly as much as he has with Putin.

[20] The two have exchanged pleasantries and even gifts on each other's birthdays, for example.

[21] See and Putin were both in Tajikistan in 2019 for C -66th birthday.

[22] Putin gave him ice cream, and then they toasted with champagne.

[23] And apparently, according to, state media reports.

[24] She then gave Putin a gift of Chinese black tea.

[25] Huh.

[26] Okay.

[27] But this trip is obviously about much more than two old friends just catching up, right?

[28] Well, the Chinese government is framing Xi's visit as a mission of peace.

[29] Chinese officials say that she's intended go is to bring about a ceasefire or some form of peace talks so that they can quiet hostilities between Russia and Ukraine.

[30] The U .S. officials and European officials are skeptical.

[31] that that's what China is really after.

[32] So, Ed, what is China really after?

[33] China wants to shore up its relationship with Russia.

[34] And in trying to strengthen ties with Russia, she is trying to add to this broader campaign that he's carrying out to push back against what they see as aggressive behavior by the United States.

[35] And she has been very explicit in his concerns over this.

[36] Just this month, in a political, meeting in Beijing, he made this very big statement that Western countries, led by the United States, have implemented all -around containment, encirclement, and suppression of China.

[37] And that's a big deal that he used a phrase all -around containment to describe what the U .S. is doing.

[38] It obviously harkens back to the Cold War, to the U .S. policy of containment of the Soviet Union.

[39] And it's very rare that Xi or other Chinese officials very explicitly lay out their concerns about the U .S. and their concerns about U .S. policy in this manner.

[40] Interesting.

[41] So she is pointing directly to the U .S. and using language from the Cold War.

[42] Talking about this containment, what does that look like from the perspective of the Chinese?

[43] Like, if I'm stepping into Xi's shoes, what am I seeing?

[44] Well, Sabrina, from Beijing's perspective, they're seeing a whole host of policies that they think are designed to suppress China's economic growth and contain its military ambitions.

[45] They see this as having really started in earnest during the Trump administration, but then ramping up in the Biden administration, even just in the last several months.

[46] So, for example, last October, the Biden administration announced these sweeping policies on banning semiconductor exports to China.

[47] They said U .S. companies and some companies within partner nations could not send advanced semiconductor technology China or sell semiconductor manufacturing tools that would help China advance its industry.

[48] So Chinese officials see this as an action to really try and hobble China's economic and technological advancement since so much of what we use in our modern world, whether it's household appliances or in military advancement rely on semiconductor technology and advancing that technology.

[49] Right.

[50] That was a really important moment last fall.

[51] And then, of course, as we talked about on the show on Monday, the Biden administration took aim at another part of China's economy when just last week it emerged that the administration might ban TikTok because TikTok is owned by a Chinese company.

[52] Right.

[53] And that's another huge deal in the eyes of Chinese officials.

[54] Obviously, we all know how successful TikTok is as a company.

[55] And the Biden administration is saying that the Chinese company that owns TikTok has to sell its shares in it because it sees TikTok as a potential national security threat.

[56] China obviously sees that as another effort by the U .S. to try and keep China down economically, and that the U .S. will always suspect China or Chinese companies of harboring ill intentions toward the U .S. And, of course, beyond just its economic ambitions, you also said she thinks the U .S. is trying to suppress China's military ambitions, too, right?

[57] Tell me about that.

[58] Well, Beijing's looking around at all these actions that the Biden administration has been taking recently in the Asia -Pacific region, and from the Chinese officials' perspectives, they're growing increasingly alarmed about this.

[59] Well, Mr. Prime Minister, it's great to see you again.

[60] So, for example, in January, Prime Minister Kashida from Japan came to the U .S. and met with Biden in the White House.

[61] Today, I'm looking forward to how we can continue advancing our shared goals and values.

[62] And at that meeting, President Biden announced that the U .S. would help Japan bolster its military and change its military posture in the region.

[63] We're modernizing our military alliance.

[64] And that includes everything from bolstering Japan's military.

[65] missile capabilities to overhauling the U .S. marine presence in the Japanese islands to make them more deployable in the event of a conflict in the Asia Pacific.

[66] And this was a big deal because since World War II, Japan has maintained a pacifist standing and tried to downplay any military advances that it's making.

[67] The U .S. is saying that that's about to change.

[68] And was China directly referenced in this announcement?

[69] The two leaders didn't mention China, But when you talk to U .S. officials in Washington, they say the main impetus is to allow the U .S. and its allies in the region to be able to counter China and its military if Beijing were to take action against Taiwan or some other territory in the Asia Pacific region.

[70] Now, as you might remember, Taiwan is the biggest flashpoint between the U .S. and China.

[71] Taiwan is a self -governing democratic island that's off the southeast coast of China.

[72] The U .S. says it's a partner of Taiwan, and it wants to be able to help Taiwan in some way if China were ever to try and take Taiwan militarily.

[73] Okay, so the change with Japan is one example.

[74] What else has the U .S. been doing?

[75] Good morning, everyone.

[76] Well, this winter, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made a trip to Manila, the capital of the Philippines.

[77] America's commitment to the defense of the Philippines is ironclad.

[78] And while there, he and the Philippine leaders announced that the U .S. military would have greater access to Philippine military bases across the entire island chain.

[79] That includes a base in the northern part of the Philippines, close to Taiwan.

[80] We remain committed to strengthening our mutual capacities to resist armed attack.

[81] And this was significant because it puts U .S. troops in a better position to defend Taiwan if there were, some conflict over the island.

[82] And this potentially could mean that the U .S. military would have its biggest presence in the Philippines of the last 30 years.

[83] And these efforts are especially important as a People's Republic of China continues to advance its illegitimate claims in the West Philippine Sea.

[84] So the U .S. is steadily increasing its military presence throughout the Pacific.

[85] That's right, Sabrina.

[86] And actually, an announcement by President Biden this month was the biggest military action in that trend.

[87] Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States, accompanied by the Prime Minister of Australia and the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

[88] Biden and the Prime Ministers of Australia and the UK stood together at a naval base in San Diego and announced that the U .S. would start sharing nuclear submarine technology with Australia, with the intent that Australia would eventually build its own for use across the Asia -Pacific.

[89] And it's my honor to welcome both the United States as we take the next critical step in advancing the Australia -US -U -K partnership, OECIS.

[90] It's the first time in 65 years that the U .S. is sharing this type of technology with another country.

[91] It's only done it once before with the U .K. The Orcas Agreement we confirm here in San Diego represents the biggest single investment in Australia's defense capability in all of our history.

[92] And it hopes that Australia and its new submarine fleet will be able to aid the U .S. and other partners and allies in case there is a conflict with China in the region.

[93] And it strikes me that what the U .S. is doing here is putting increased military pressure on China without actually having to commit any of its own forces.

[94] Like, it's all by proxy.

[95] That's right.

[96] And the Biden administration is very proud of this.

[97] They came into office saying that they were going to rebuild their partnerships and alliances with other countries after the Trump era.

[98] And in a way, that's exactly what they've done.

[99] And these countries, places like Japan or the Philippines, are completely on board with this.

[100] Because they see China as a potential threatening military actor too.

[101] And they want to be able to have deterrence against China.

[102] and they see a partnership with the U .S. as one of the best ways of going about doing that.

[103] Now, if you're looking at this from Xi's perspective, you're seeing what he calls all -around containment of China.

[104] He sees this encirclement of China by the U .S., and he feels he needs to get out there in the world in order to shore up China's influence around the globe, in order to strengthen its most powerful partners, and in order to build up ties with countries in some of the most important parts of the world.

[105] We'll be right back.

[106] Ed, walk us through the steps she has taken over the past few weeks to build up ties and shore up its influence around the world at this moment when the U .S. has taken all these actions to counter China.

[107] Well, one of the most striking diplomatic actions that China took just happened 10 days ago.

[108] This was when China hosted.

[109] leaders from Iran and from Saudi Arabia in Beijing to sign an important diplomatic agreement to reopen relations with each other.

[110] And that was a big deal because Iran and Saudi Arabia are longtime rivals.

[111] There has been increasing hostilities between these two countries, and officials around the world even fear that they could get involved in a nuclear arms race sometime soon.

[112] And now here was China, which has growing ties to both of these countries stepping in and trying to make some sort of initial steps toward peace take place between the two nations.

[113] And you don't normally think of China as a mediator in the Middle East, right?

[114] You think of the U .S. So why was China doing this?

[115] That's right.

[116] China has not played a very proactive role in diplomacy in the region.

[117] But in recent years, it's had growing interests across the Middle East and especially with countries in the Gulf area.

[118] So it imports around 40 % of its oil from the region.

[119] And both Iran and Saudi Arabia are the two biggest sellers of oil to China.

[120] So China needs to make sure that there's stability in the area.

[121] So here, what we're seeing is China willing to step in and play mediator in order to ensure that stability.

[122] It's unclear whether China will be able to do that, but it's trying to make itself into a more important player.

[123] And in some ways, as you point out, stepping into the type of role that the U .S. has played in the region.

[124] Now, in this case, China was a much more logical mediator than the U .S. The U .S. would not be able to accomplish what China had just done because the U .S. doesn't have formal diplomatic relations with Iran.

[125] Right.

[126] China, on the other hand, has diplomatic relations with both countries.

[127] And, in fact, its ties with both of them are growing stronger by the month.

[128] So China has powers that the U .S. doesn't have.

[129] Namely, it has relations with Iran, and it can, in some ways, look like the adult in the room in the Middle East.

[130] Right.

[131] And there's another important goal that China has in the region, and that is expanding its military footprint.

[132] And we know that they've been trying to get access to parts of the Gulf region in order to establish a military base.

[133] U .S. officials have pushed back against that, and they've been trying to get countries in the region to promise that they will not give China military access.

[134] And has China gotten military access?

[135] So far, China has not been able to build a base in the region, but U .S. officials are watching closely for whether it'll try to do that.

[136] So the Biden administration carefully watching it.

[137] The Biden administration, presumably also carefully watching this week's visit by Xi to Moscow.

[138] How exactly does this visit fit into the broader framework you're describing of China pushing back and shoring up itself against the U .S.?

[139] Well, as you know, China and Russia have had longstanding ties.

[140] There's a whole range of interests that they share.

[141] For example, China imports a lot of Russian oil as it does from the Middle East.

[142] It also has many close security arrangements with Russia.

[143] The two militaries do join exercises.

[144] together.

[145] They've done that several times this year.

[146] But perhaps the biggest significance of this visit is that it's meant to reinforce this worldview that officials and leaders in both Beijing and Moscow have, and that Xi and Putin have both highlighted.

[147] And that is that they see the U .S. as their biggest shared rival or adversary on the world stage, and that they believe that together they can present a united front to push back against U .S. dominance in the world.

[148] Right.

[149] They share this one very important thing, a frustration with American power and with how America wields that power.

[150] That's right.

[151] And the leaders in both countries are very explicit about that.

[152] But we also don't want to overstate how closely their general worldviews are aligned.

[153] For example, the fact that Putin operates in many ways as a chaos agent in different parts of the world, and obviously most recently in this invasion of Ukraine, that's something that China is not entirely happy about.

[154] China sees the international order and the global economy as important for its rise in the world, as important for powering its economic engine.

[155] And the more that Putin does to disrupt all of that, the worse it is for China.

[156] China now has to deal with a whole range of sanctions on Russia.

[157] It has to rework its trade ties.

[158] And it also has to deal with the fluctuations in global energy prices.

[159] and in other parts of the rural economy because of what Putin is doing.

[160] Right, not something that she really wants to be dealing with.

[161] So there is some incentive, then, for China to play the role of peacemaker in Ukraine, which is how China is describing this trip.

[162] That's right, Sabrina.

[163] There is some incentive.

[164] But so far, what they've proposed or the statements they've made, don't give U .S. and some European officials a lot of confidence.

[165] We don't see China making the commitments or, asking Putin to withdraw his troops, which U .S. officials say would lead to an authentic and durable peace in Ukraine.

[166] So it's a peacemaking mission in words only?

[167] Well, when I talk with U .S. officials and some analysts here in Washington, they say that what might be happening is that she and his colleagues in Beijing are presenting a cover story for their real intentions on this visit to Russia.

[168] So it sounds good to the world that they're on a peace mission to try and end the Ukraine war.

[169] But what these two leaders are really doing in Moscow is to shore up relations between their two countries to talk about how the two nations can cooperate on a whole range of issues because each sees the other as indispensable in being able to push back against the U .S. on all kinds of fronts, whether that's in trade, in technology, and in military terms, too.

[170] So, Ed, you're describing a very complex set of alliances.

[171] that Xi is trying to weave in light of what he sees as mounting pressure on him by the U .S. So to get back to the beginning of our conversation when you quoted Xi's statement, you know, which used language from the Cold War era, are we seeing the beginnings of a new kind of Cold War with the U .S. and its allies on one side and China and its allies on the other?

[172] Well, Sabrina, people keep asking that question, but I think it's much more complicated than that.

[173] all these countries, whether it's a U .S. or its European allies or its allies in Asia, they all have very close trade ties to China.

[174] China is, in many cases, the biggest trading partner for some of these countries.

[175] So I think that the animosities that we're seeing building up are not as clear -cut as they were during the Cold War, and the relationships are much more complex than what took place between the western blocks and the eastern blocks during the height of the Cold War.

[176] Right.

[177] The world is just much more complicated than it was back then, in that these countries all have their economies deeply intertwined.

[178] That's right, Sabrina.

[179] But it's still hard not to draw some parallels between what's going on now and the Cold War that took place between the U .S. and the Soviet Union.

[180] And you know, there's a funny coincidence taking place in Moscow during this visit by C. when Xi and Putin sit down for their formal state dinner, they'll be doing so in the room where Reagan and Gorbachev met many years ago and at that point, Reagan and Gorvachev toasted each other and to growing relations between their two countries.

[181] Huh, so it's come full circle, right?

[182] History's come back around.

[183] Only now, of course, it's she and Putin who were toasting each other.

[184] That's right.

[185] Those two leaders will be sitting in that room and raising their glasses to each other, and they'll be toasting to a shared partner, that's aimed in large part and countering American power.

[186] Ed, thank you.

[187] Thanks a lot, Sabrina.

[188] We'll be right back.

[189] Here's what else you should know today.

[190] In France on Monday, President Emmanuel Macron's government narrowly survived a no -confidence vote in Parliament, clearing the way for a highly controversial bill that would raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 to become law.

[191] Macron had said the law was essential for the future of France's economy.

[192] but the change struck at a cherished French value, and widespread fury at the law prompted Macron's opponents to take aim at his government with a no -confidence vote.

[193] The failure, by just nine votes, sparked more protests across France.

[194] And President Biden has issued the first veto of his presidency, rejecting a Republican bill that would prevent the federal government from making investment decisions based on factors like a company's policy on diversity and carbon emissions.

[195] The bill was a direct attack on an increasingly popular investment philosophy known as ESG.

[196] Advocates say it's profitable for businesses, but critics say it is a Trojan horse for liberal values.

[197] Finally, despite a $30 billion rescue package put together last week by the federal government and rival banks, the future of First Republic Bank remained uncertain on Monday.

[198] Its share price fell by nearly half, and the Times reports that over the past two weeks, Its customers have pulled out nearly $70 billion in deposits.

[199] Today's episode was produced by Nina Feldman, Shannon Lynn, and Murszady.

[200] It was edited by Rachel Quester and Michael Benoit.

[201] Contains original music by Marianne Lozano and Dan Powell, and was engineered by Chris Wood.

[202] Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Lansfirk of Wonderly.

[203] That's it for the Daily.

[204] I'm Sabrina Tavernici.

[205] See you tomorrow.