How Impeachment Consumed a Governor’s Race

[0] From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro.

[1] This is the Daily.

[2] Last night's election for governor of Kentucky is drawing outsized attention because of what it may tell us about the politics of impeachment.

[3] Jonathan Martin on how a local race became a national test.

[4] It's Wednesday, November 6th.

[5] Jonathan, what was happening in the Kentucky governor's race back in April?

[6] So Governor McBevon, the incumbent Republican, was pursuing very controversial pension overhauls in the state for state employees.

[7] And teachers were striking in protest.

[8] And speaking to reporters in the state capital, the governor, deeply angry about the teacher's sick out, said essentially, I guarantee you somewhere in Kentucky today, a child was sexually assaulted that was left at home because there was nobody there to watch them.

[9] That they were accessories to child molestation.

[10] And how did that go over?

[11] It created a huge backlash.

[12] He just, by the way, just made crazy things up.

[13] And I find it odd that his mind went there in the first place.

[14] And it reinforced for a lot of Kentuckians, even Republicans, that this was a governor who was prone to be his own worst enemy.

[15] Senate Minority Leader Ray Jones said Bevin crossed the line when he insulted public teachers.

[16] And it also, I think, hurt his, agenda because it made his would -be allies in the state legislature less inclined to support his already controversial push to over haul state pensions.

[17] I don't know what kind of person thinks like that.

[18] I just, it's appalling, it's inexcusable, and there aren't words to describe.

[19] So, of course, when you're accusing teachers of, you know, aiding and abetting the child molestation of children, that's going to create a significant backlash because people are, A, offended by that kind of rhetoric, and B, because a lot of them are family members or friends or neighbors of these teachers who are being accused of this sort of vile act.

[20] Right.

[21] And maybe C, because it's factually very...

[22] Proposterous, right.

[23] And what are some of the other examples, Jonathan, of Governor Bevin being his own worst enemy, as you said?

[24] It's a constant combativeness over issues large and small, lashing out at the media almost, weekly.

[25] I don't frankly have enough time to do my job, which is what you elected me to do, and also try to counteract every single misinformation that is put out there by the media.

[26] Not answering questions about accountability, basic questions about his use of the state plane, questions about his own private residence, how he paid for it.

[27] If the taxpayers didn't pay for it, it's none of their business.

[28] Simple as that really is.

[29] If the taxpayers didn't pay for it, why should they care?

[30] In addition to his controversial conduct, he also pursued policies that angered a lot of Kentuckyans, one being this overhaul of the state pension system, which is what prompted the protest in the first place from the teachers, but also trying to undo parts of the state's Medicaid expansion.

[31] This is good for the individual.

[32] It is good for the community.

[33] It is good for the workforce.

[34] It is good for the economy.

[35] It is good for Kentucky, and it's good for America.

[36] Which not only put a lot of Kentuckians on the health care roles, got them insured, but also was a boon to the state's health care industry, which in a lot of rural counties in the state is one of the dominant employers now.

[37] So he goes into the summer of his reelection with this deep unpopularity, according to some polls, the most unpopular governor in America.

[38] And does Bevin have a viable challenger?

[39] Are Democrats trying to take advantage of what would seem like an opportunity here?

[40] Yeah.

[41] In fact, even though Kentucky has become a fairly red state in recent years, there is still a bench of Democrats there who are vying to run against him.

[42] And there's a pretty competitive Democratic primary.

[43] And like half of Kentucky, my family has preexisting conditions.

[44] We're lucky they're not serious.

[45] But that's not the case for Lucas Stevens and thousands of Kentuckians.

[46] And Matt Bevin is trying to take away their health care.

[47] I'm Andy Bashir.

[48] Andy Bashir emerges from that.

[49] He's, is the state attorney general, who is the son of the governor who prescated Matt Bevin, Steve Beshear.

[50] As governor, I'll work to lower health care costs for all of us.

[51] Governor Bevan won't.

[52] And actually, it was Andy Beshear's father, the former governor, who accepted the expansion of Medicaid under President Obama's Affordable Care Act.

[53] Jonathan, help me understand the politics of Kentucky that would allow this red state to have a governor's seat that flips back and forth between.

[54] Republican and Democrat.

[55] It's a really fascinating state because of the ancestral ties of voters in eastern and Western Kentucky to the Democratic Party, up until very recently, they were still voting for Democrats at the local and state level, even as they were overwhelmingly backing GOPP presidents, senators like Mitch McConnell, their preference was still for local and state Democrat.

[56] So you had Democrats winning the governor's race as recently as 2007, 2011.

[57] Bashir's father, you know, won twice pretty easily.

[58] Now, that has changed in recent years as recently as 2004 when John Kerry was the Democratic nominee for president.

[59] He carried some of these historically Democratic counties, not by huge margins, but he carried them.

[60] If you flash forward to 2016 when Hillary Clinton's on the ballot, not only is she losing some of those old Democratic counties in rural eastern Kentucky and western Kentucky, she's losing them by 60 and 70 point margins.

[61] Wow.

[62] And I think the reason for that is because you had a politics that was still not quite as nationalized as politics has become in the last four to five years.

[63] So with all that in mind, Jonathan, how does this race start to play out once Bevan becomes so vulnerable and Bashir emerges as his challenger?

[64] You have the incumbent governor and his national allies recognizing pretty fast that they have to change the narrative of this race.

[65] It cannot be a pure referendum on the incumbent.

[66] That's the case they're going to lose, and they're going to lose pretty convincingly.

[67] So what do you do if you're a Republican in a red state like Kentucky?

[68] We stand proudly with the president and vice president of the United States of America.

[69] Well, you nationalize the race.

[70] We saw the animosity, the vitriol, the insanity of what was coming out of Washington, even just yesterday, where the mockery that is being made of the political process and the disregard and the disrespect by the elected officials themselves in Washington, You make it about democratic figures nationally, and you make it about hot -button issues that are going to move voters in the state who might not like you as the incumbent, but they don't like democratic policies and national democratic leaders at the same time.

[71] You make it not about Kentucky.

[72] Yeah.

[73] This is Trump country.

[74] Let there be no doubt about it.

[75] No doubt about it.

[76] Are you on team red or are you on team blue?

[77] Because Bevin's calculation is if it's about that, if it's a Trump, question in a red state like Kentucky where Trump won by 30 points in 2016, I'm going to win this thing.

[78] And what is the Democrat Bashir doing?

[79] Well, Bashir wants it to be about Kentucky.

[80] And folks, this race comes down to four critical issues, pensions, public education, jobs, and health care.

[81] He wants it to be about Bevin's unpopularity.

[82] And on every single one of them, Matt Bevin is wrong.

[83] And keep it away from Washington.

[84] to keep it away from President Trump, portray himself as a safe, pragmatic choice, a last name that voters in the state are familiar with.

[85] Right.

[86] And somebody who's not going to bring the kind of drama that Bevin has brought for the last four years.

[87] Matt Bevan is reckless and erratic.

[88] And Bashir is doing a pretty good job, actually, for most of the summer and going into the fall of making this about Matt Bevin and have you had enough of this incumbent after four years of turbulence in the state capital?

[89] And then something unexpected happens.

[90] Which is what?

[91] In an election where Bavin desperately wanted to change the issue matrix from state politics to national politics, what falls in his lap like Santa dropping something on Christmas morning, but the impeachment of the president that this state loves.

[92] We'll be right back.

[93] So, Jonathan, what happens to this race once impeachment is underway?

[94] Well, it becomes the first and most important test.

[95] of the political resonance of impeachment and how this is playing out in electoral politics.

[96] Can a Republican governor who's deeply unpopular salvage his reelection in a red state by essentially nationalizing it and asking voters, are you on the side of House Democrats and the impeachment of a president that you'd like?

[97] Or are you on the side of President Trump?

[98] Andy Bashir stood with Hillary.

[99] When she lost, he became part of the radical resistance repeatedly suing to stop Trump's agenda.

[100] And the final weeks of the campaign focused squarely on asking voters, which side do you want?

[101] And it shares with them, not us.

[102] Right.

[103] The question is, are Kentuckians ready to vote for a deeply unpopular Republican governor who has challenged their pension system and tried to take away their Medicaid over a Democratic candidate who is saying, I'm going to protect those pensions, I'm going to protect that Medicaid, the very things that the Republican is trying to take away.

[104] Yes, and it gets to the central test of this race, which is, what is the greater motivator for voters?

[105] Are they going to go into the ballot booth on Tuesday, and are they going to be voting on their deep disdain for Matt Bevin and the policies that he's pursued that you just outlined?

[106] Or are they going to show up on Tuesday at the polls and register their love for President Trump and their deep disdain for the National Democratic Party?

[107] And that's when you decide to go to Kentucky.

[108] Yeah, so late last month, I went down to Kentucky because I was so fascinated by what was becoming this not only interesting governor's race, but this, I think, super important national political story about what is more compelling to voters in this moment, their clear local and state preference or their national instincts and sort of tribal preference.

[109] And what did you find?

[110] What actually great about going down there is that I, I spent time with both candidates.

[111] Let's certainly admit that Matt Bevin is trying to hide behind a party or a president or anything else he can because he has a disastrous record here in Kentucky.

[112] I was at a Democratic County dinner in Georgetown, Kentucky, which is just north of Lexington.

[113] And after Bashir spoke to the Democratic group, I got a few minutes to chat with him.

[114] And what does he say about the fact that this race is becoming the national contest that he never wanted it to be?

[115] He is trying to turn that to his own benefit by saying that Bevan is.

[116] is hiding behind President Trump to try to save himself.

[117] He has to find something to hide behind.

[118] But he certainly isn't running on anything that a governor directly impacts here in Kentucky.

[119] And he studiously avoided saying anything controversial about President Trump or taking aside on the impeachment inquiry.

[120] I asked him a question I ask a lot of politicians, which is, do you think President Trump's a good man?

[121] I don't know the president, but I know that I can work with any president when they are doing something good for Kentucky.

[122] And he said he doesn't know President Trump.

[123] from, and then quickly pivoted to saying, I'll work with him for Kentucky and offering a line I've heard before, which is if it's good for my state, I'll work with them.

[124] If it's bad, I'll oppose him.

[125] What about Bevan?

[126] So I went to this community about 40 miles south of Louisville, pretty conservative part of the state, and it was a shonies where there was a breakfast rally for Bevan who was embarking on this multi -day bus tour, and they packed this shonies.

[127] Guys, let's get the whole ticket real quick under the Shoney's side.

[128] What is a Shonings?

[129] Shonings is a reasonably priced restaurant, very popular off highways and interstates, mostly known for its breakfast, but also serves lunch and dinner as well.

[130] Yes, no, he is.

[131] You don't have to tell me that, I know.

[132] But what was so telling is that the Republicans who were there, they weren't wearing Bevan buttons or Bevan shirt or Bevin hats.

[133] They were all wearing Trump hats.

[134] and Trump buttons.

[135] They're motivated more by Trump and by their opposition to Democrats than they are for Matt Bevin.

[136] And the governor clearly recognizes that because in his stump speech, he's talking about national Democrats and how extreme they are.

[137] He's talking about policy issues that are more national like immigration than local issues.

[138] And obviously, he's talking about his support for President Trump and Andy Bashir's opposition to President Trump in his stump speech.

[139] Yes, governor.

[140] Say, I want to ask you, what hasn't the impeachment for you the president done to this race?

[141] It's made people in this state ticked off that we have a bunch of liberals in Washington, D .C., whose knickers are in such a twist over the fact that this guy was elected president, that they will do anything to try to undermine the legitimacy of what he's doing.

[142] People in Kentucky respect and appreciate this president.

[143] And when I said, you know, why is this race even competitive, given how conservative the state's becoming?

[144] not only did he say that he didn't think the race wasn't, in fact, all that competitive, he even gave me a prediction.

[145] I think you're going to be shocked at how uncompetitive this actually is.

[146] We'll see.

[147] So you think that your margin is going to be pretty good.

[148] I'd say six to ten percent, but we'll see.

[149] I mean, at the end of the day, the voters decide that.

[150] You don't hear politicians of any party for any office often predict their margin of victory in interviews, but he sure did.

[151] So this is bravado.

[152] But this is Bevin.

[153] I mean, he loves sort of the back and forth.

[154] And when pressed, he says things that can be pretty controversial.

[155] Do you have any real questions?

[156] Golly.

[157] I'll see you.

[158] Good to see you.

[159] Thanks for coming.

[160] And at this point, do you have a sense on the ground, Jonathan, of who this impeachment issue is working better for, the Democrat or the Republican?

[161] Oh, well, clearly it's been helping the Republican because it allowed Devin to make what was not a very competitive race, a much more competitive race going to election day.

[162] How competitive?

[163] Well, polls have showed the race closing.

[164] Earlier in the year, Bashir was leading more comfortably, and now you have a much more competitive race.

[165] Both public and private surveys suggest that this is a race that is, you know, under five points.

[166] So basically a kind of deady.

[167] Seemed like it.

[168] And then...

[169] Well, I just want to say a very big, hello, Kentucky.

[170] President Trump can't stay away, and he steps into the story.

[171] Tomorrow, the people of Kentucky will help.

[172] to the polls, and you will vote to re -elect your terrific Republican governor, Matt Bevin.

[173] He's done a fantastic job.

[174] On Election Eve, he has a rally in Lexington, the story Rupp Arena, the home of the U .K. Wildcats, and about fills the arena on behalf of Matt Bevin.

[175] And in Trumpian fashion, he allows that Bevin is a pain in the ass.

[176] His words, his words, not ours.

[177] He's such a pain.

[178] when he needs something for Kentucky like money, like aid, like he wants me to call one of the many manufacturers now that are coming into Kentucky.

[179] But tries to portray Bevin as a pin in the ass on behalf of the people of the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

[180] Could you call the head of some company in Japan, please?

[181] I say, Matt, do I have to do it?

[182] Please, please.

[183] But isn't that really what you want in a governor?

[184] And then he said, Because if we lose here, it's going to look bad nationally.

[185] It's going to send a bad message.

[186] Don't let me down.

[187] Here's the story.

[188] If you win, they're going to make it like ho -hum.

[189] And if you lose, they're going to say Trump suffered the greatest defeat in the history of the world.

[190] This was the greatest.

[191] You can't let that happen to me. So Trump somewhat explicitly says, this is about me. Yes, Trump is the icing on the cake for the nationalization of this race by the Republicans.

[192] So, Jonathan, you and I are talking now.

[193] at around 4 .18 on Tuesday.

[194] Where do things stand in the race?

[195] It's uncertain.

[196] I mean, there is genuine drama.

[197] You talk to a lot of Democrats.

[198] They believe that they have a chance to win, probably narrowly.

[199] But you talk to a lot of Republicans, both in Kentucky and in D .C., and they are just skeptical that any Democrat can win in that state at this point.

[200] So this might be less of an indicator in terms of how national elections might go with impeachment as a backdrop and maybe more an indicator of, whether there's really such a thing as a local race anymore.

[201] I mean, if a candidate offering people in Kentucky what they seem to want, policy -wise, right, loses to a candidate saying he will take things away from people that they want, what does that tell us about the nature of any election anymore?

[202] Well, that the old tip of Neil Max and all politics is local has been flipped, and all politics is now national, and that it's going to be tough for a candidate, even in the best of circumstances to localize a campaign if they're running against the wind in terms of the partisan preference of the state.

[203] So this is not just about one state and one governor's race.

[204] This is about, is all politics nationalized now, can Democrats still win in red states under good circumstances?

[205] Because if they can't hear, I think you're going to see less investment in Democratic candidates in Red America in 2020 and after.

[206] Right.

[207] And if a governor who literally has no role in national politics cannot be local, the idea that a congressman, congresswoman or a senator, could be local.

[208] That seems even less possible.

[209] Yeah, I mean, you just asked the members of Congress who lost their races last year in the House and with Republicans who said, you know me, I'm not Donald Trump.

[210] I'm your long -serving, pragmatic, pork -bearing incumbent who has served you ably for X number of years.

[211] The voters in a lot of those districts turned a deaf ear to that plea.

[212] At the same time, you had Red State Democratic senators who said, I'm not some crazy wild -eyed liberal.

[213] I'm a modern.

[214] You know me. I've delivered for this state and helped the farmers here.

[215] And guess what?

[216] The Red State voters in those states rejected that appeal in support of the Republicans.

[217] And I think that is why it's going to have implications for 2020 as well, because I think the handful of the House Democrats who do pursue impeachment, who come from.

[218] more conservative districts could pay a price for that.

[219] Thank you, Jonathan.

[220] Thanks, guys.

[221] Okay, so what happened?

[222] It's 10 .50.

[223] We're still in the newsroom with 100 % of votes in.

[224] Any Bashir has won the governorship of Kentucky, but the catch, Governor Matt Bevin, is not conceding.

[225] He said tonight to supporters that he wants to see all the rules followed.

[226] Basically, he's just buying time.

[227] It's pretty clear that Bashir is going to win the election.

[228] So not all politics are national.

[229] well even in deep red kentucky a governor can only be so unpopular and still win re -election no matter how right the state is we'll be right back here's what else you need to know today the u .s ambassador to the european union a crucial witness in the impeachment inquiry has revised his testimony and now says that he told ukrainian officials that u .s military assistance was dependent on on investigating President Trump's rivals.

[230] The witness, Gordon Sondland, had previously said he had no knowledge of such a quid pro quo, making his new testimony a powerful admission by a senior figure in the Trump administration.

[231] And an associate of Rudy Giuliani, the president's lawyer, who has been accused of participating in the scheme to pressure Ukraine, now says he is willing to co -werews.

[232] operate with impeachment investigators.

[233] The associate, Lev Parnas, has previously resisted speaking with the investigators, seemingly out of loyalty to Giuliani and Trump.

[234] Finally, on Tuesday, the impeachment investigators summoned the White House chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, to testify about his knowledge of the Ukraine situation.

[235] Mulvaney is not expected to comply.

[236] That's it for the daily.

[237] I'm Michael Babaro.

[238] See you tomorrow.