The Taliban’s Advance

[0] From New York Times, I'm Michael Babaro.

[1] This is a daily.

[2] Today, as the United States completes its military withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is seizing control of city after city across the country.

[3] Sabrina Tavernisi spoke with our colleague, Carlotta Gaul, about the Taliban's strategy and why it's succeeding so quickly.

[4] It's Tuesday, August 10th.

[5] So, Cardlotta, tell me what happened in Afghanistan over the weekend.

[6] Well, after months of fighting, suddenly the Taliban have made a huge breakthrough this weekend with taking several big cities and suddenly toppling a lot of the north.

[7] I think it's very serious and it's a very big move to take control of the country.

[8] So, Carlotta, what were those provincial capitals?

[9] walk us through exactly how the weekend played out.

[10] So a lot of provincial capitals have been under siege or under attack, and there's been a bit of urban flow.

[11] But on Friday, the Taliban took their first provincial capital.

[12] We have two eyewitnesses confirming that the city of Zerange in southwestern Afghanistan has fallen to the Taliban.

[13] And it's a small place that not many people maybe know of called Zarang on the south western border with Iran.

[14] I tell you, the government say that they are on the outskirts, though, of Zerange and battles continue.

[15] And then very swiftly, in completely different part of the country in the north.

[16] The Taliban now claiming a second provincial capital, Shabaghan, is in their hands.

[17] They made a move on Shibrogan, which is a medium -sized town, but an important province, because it's always been anti -Taliban.

[18] And then Sunday, three towns fell.

[19] The sun rising on what would become a historic day in Afghanistan.

[20] First, the Taliban entered Kunduz.

[21] Video released by the Taliban shows fighters retaking ground with excessive force, seizing key government buildings and reducing areas of the city to smoldering ruins.

[22] That I think is the biggest shock because Kunduz is a major town, you know, more than a quarter of a million people, breadbasket of Afghanistan.

[23] And then now, Monday evening, we're hearing reports that a sixth province is falling, Samangan, which is actually a very strategic, also northern province, but it's on the main road that links the north to Kabul.

[24] So a huge change, suddenly the Taliban has upped its gear and it's going for the cities, populated areas in different parts of the country.

[25] So I think it's a huge blow for the government.

[26] So that's six cities in four days.

[27] I mean, that seems really fast.

[28] Was this a shock to you or to Afghans?

[29] Were you expecting this?

[30] You know, I've learned over years of reporting from Afghanistan never to predict and never to really expect.

[31] So was I expecting?

[32] I was fearing something like this would happen?

[33] But of course it's a shock.

[34] And I think for the Afghan people that I'm messaging with and in touch with, they're appalled.

[35] They're frightened.

[36] A lot of them are on the move and they're close to despair.

[37] And then don't forget, it's not just those towns because a lot of the other towns are under siege.

[38] So, of course, you imagine if you're sitting in a provincial capital that's under shelf up and you hear other major cities have fallen, it's very, very harsh on the morale, I think, of everyone in the country.

[39] All right.

[40] So, Carlotta, how does all of this fit into the broader Taliban military strategy?

[41] This is altogether an escalation of their main strategy, which we've seen for the last two years since they made a deal with the Americans for the American withdrawal from Afghanistan.

[42] The Taliban had agreed then not to attack the U .S. forces and not to attack cities.

[43] But they did start seizing territory, and they cleared up and took a lot of rural districts.

[44] And then what was interesting was they seized a lot of the border posts.

[45] And that was clearly an important strategic aim because they can use leverage against the government.

[46] They seized the government's lucrative customs, posts.

[47] They seized a bank and got lots of cash.

[48] They showed off the cash that they seized in Herat.

[49] And then they moved on the provincial capitals this weekend.

[50] And so what it looks like is they've got this strategy to steadily take all the outer rim of the country, the border posts, the entry points, the provinces around the edges, and then slowly encroach on the center and, I think, do a stranglehold on the capital, Kabul.

[51] So, Carlotta, you've talked a little bit about this, but what does it feel like on the ground as the Taliban starts to take over these provincial cities?

[52] Well, it's been very grim.

[53] What we know from the rural areas or the suburbs of the cities is that they've come in, they occupy houses, they push people out, take over their house, they lay IEDs and anti -personnel mines all over the village, all over the fields.

[54] They dig tunnels because up until now they've been worried about a counterattack by the government.

[55] They closed all the girls' schools.

[56] I know that from, you know, in Kandahar, they even stop people using their cell phones.

[57] So a lot of the old rules and of course Sharia law, so women aren't allowed out without a male relative men, I think even being told to grow beards, again.

[58] And we've seen some signs of whippings.

[59] And so the old extreme rule of the Taliban under Sharia law.

[60] What is most alarming that we've seen is certainly in one town of Spindbalak, despite agreements where they ask the police forces or the local militia to surrender and be allowed to go free, they then did go door to door and pull out people who'd work with the government, particularly security forces.

[61] And they executed 44 people, we know for sure.

[62] There's a lot of others missing.

[63] So that was a very sinister harbinger of what might happen on a larger scale.

[64] So they're executing people who were working with the Afghan government as well as the United States.

[65] Yes.

[66] So we've had in different provinces.

[67] We've had the president's spokesperson was killed on Friday.

[68] We've had a headmaster from a central province was killed.

[69] in a place overrun by the Taliban.

[70] We've had a school teacher.

[71] So, of course, people are very frightened, including in Kabul, where the Taliban haven't come near yet, but they know well that anyone connected to the government or to foreign organizations is going to be in danger.

[72] So there's a great feeling of dread, and then a lot of the women, of course, are asking, I mean, friends and acquaintances are saying, will we be allowed to work?

[73] Will we be allowed to go out of the house?

[74] So I think for all women across the board, there's great concern.

[75] And then I think for ordinary Afghans, it's this fighting.

[76] You know, if they're going to struggle to fight for every city and there's going to be a big fight, you know, how many people are going to get killed and injured?

[77] I mean, this is an incredibly fraught and complicated and really dire situation for a lot of Afghans.

[78] But I would imagine that people are kind of making the calculation about sort of, of where power is going to be and what might be safe for their families.

[79] So are people at all supportive of the Taliban?

[80] I mean, how are ordinary Afghans kind of responding to this?

[81] You're absolutely right.

[82] Because when I say all Afghans, you know, are terrified.

[83] I think they are because they've seen so much violence.

[84] They know to expect the worst.

[85] But there are already, of course, people reaching out to the Taliban.

[86] And Afghans have always learned how to survive is you bend with the winds.

[87] So a lot of them are already doing that.

[88] You actually see people raising the Taliban flag in cities, talking about them in the mosques.

[89] There's even some people who are going on these television chat shows and who are supporting the return of Sharia, welcoming the departure of the foreign forces.

[90] And this is what we heard actually in Kunduz.

[91] The crowds were cheering the Taliban because that's what you do.

[92] You cheer the conqueror because you've got to go and live under them.

[93] So I know so many of them don't want the Taliban.

[94] They'd prefer a free society and a safe society.

[95] But if the Taliban's coming, they know how to survive.

[96] They'll just keep their eyes shut and their heads down.

[97] People will just bend with the wind, as it were.

[98] So, Carlotta, at this point, how significant are these Taliban seizures?

[99] Like how much control has the Afghan government actually lost?

[100] I mean, this is five, maybe six of 30 plus provinces, so it's still a small percentage.

[101] But what has happened, of course, is they've now taken big provincial towns on either side of Masari Sharif, which is the main town in the north.

[102] So they now are in a very good position to move on it from two sides.

[103] And if they've taken Samangan, they've cut the main road.

[104] So strategically, they're really gaining.

[105] And then in the south, the two big cities.

[106] So really they must be feeling they're on a role.

[107] And this is, I think, very significant because it'll give them a huge boost to move further.

[108] And Carlotta, is your eye at this point, as you analyze this and watch this on the Capitol?

[109] How are you understanding Kabul right now?

[110] It's the ultimate prize, obviously.

[111] The palace is there, the presidential palace is there, all the embassies, the major airport.

[112] And it's, you know, a beautiful, famous, historic city.

[113] I just cannot predict what it will happen and how quickly and soon they can put a strangle on it.

[114] You know, we've had battles for years over Kabul in the past.

[115] It won't be easy and it might be where the government draws the line and makes a stand.

[116] And of course, you know, there's a lot of people in Kabul, civilians as well as security forces, who oppose the Taliban, so would be expected to put up a fight.

[117] And so we don't know what's going to happen, but I think you can definitely say the Taliban's going to make a move towards Kabul.

[118] And that's very dramatic because you've got the huge American embassy with hundreds of Marines still there guarding the embassy and a NATO civilian office.

[119] You've got Turkish troops in the airport.

[120] You've got really quite a mix there of a big capital city of 4 million people.

[121] So that's the ultimate prize, but it's all.

[122] also the most worrying place, because that's where it could be an ultimate, really dreadful confrontation.

[123] We'll be right back.

[124] So, Carlet, I want to come back to this idea of shock and being surprised that this is all happening.

[125] How did the Americans not see this coming?

[126] I mean, there had been three presidents, Obama, Trump, and now Biden, talking about how to pull out, when to pull out, the challenges of ending this war.

[127] I mean, is there a sense that they knew, at that they knew.

[128] some level that this was inevitable?

[129] My feeling is they definitely knew.

[130] I mean, certainly we've heard over the weekend the Biden administration saying the withdrawal is still on track.

[131] There's no change to his plan.

[132] And so I think they all say, certainly American officials say to us that they're surprised that they didn't expect the government to be so weak or to lose territory so quickly.

[133] But ultimately they did know because they've been talking to the Taliban for three years now for this peace deal and in the agreement for the American withdrawal.

[134] And I think if you talk to any of the Afghan negotiators, they say it's very clear when you talk to the Taliban that they have no intention of really dealing peace.

[135] They want power.

[136] And so I'm sure the American administration knows this, but they've decided to pull out, and however grim it is, they're going to stick with the course.

[137] Does the U .S. have a plan to step in at any point?

[138] What's the U .S.'s strategy here?

[139] Yeah, it doesn't look like it.

[140] The Biden administration comment is that the withdrawal continues, and the withdrawal is intended to be full.

[141] What they have walked back a little bit on is airstrikes.

[142] Although they've taken all the American fighter planes out and all the drones, they have redeployed them from Doha, where they are in the Gulf, so they're flying long distances, but they are coming to the aid of some of the Afghan forces, and in particular, we've seen there's been bombing in Lashkaga, which is an important strategic place and Kandahar.

[143] So I think they're trying to stall Taliban advances on some major cities, lessen the disaster.

[144] But I'm not sure they're in any position at this stage to reverse some of these Taliban advances.

[145] So it's really, I think now perhaps face -saving to make it not such a disaster and so rapid, because that inevitably will reflect on Washington's decision to leave.

[146] Where does this leave the Afghan government?

[147] Well, they're really struggling, I think.

[148] They say they're actually planning to retake all these places, so they're putting on a brave front.

[149] But when you talk to them personally, officials are very worried.

[150] They say it's very bad.

[151] They're well aware of the suffering of the people.

[152] So it's looking very grim.

[153] I think they're struggling on the military front, you know, for supply.

[154] it's, I think, extremely tough for them.

[155] And I think they feel betrayed by the West.

[156] You know, so many Afghans worked for Western organizations or took them at their word and got educated and tried to open businesses, whatever they did.

[157] You know, they were doing it because they believed in the future.

[158] And so I think now they're feeling very bereft and some are feeling very angry and feel betrayed.

[159] The government won't say it, but the people will say it to you.

[160] So, Carlotta, the government is saying they're going to retake these cities, but what we're really seeing right now is that the Afghan military just isn't very evenly matched.

[161] Is that right?

[162] It's varied, actually.

[163] I mean, certainly there are places where they've pulled out very rapidly and surprisingly, like these last towns in the last few days.

[164] But in the south, it's interesting.

[165] There's been weeks of fighting, very heavy fighting in two big cities, Kandahar and Lashgagar.

[166] And you see there's a young general who's become very famous in Afghanistan, General Sami Sadat.

[167] He's Afghan National Army trained, you know, educated and trained since 9 -11.

[168] And he's the head of the Corps down there.

[169] And he's, you know, he's formidable.

[170] And he's managed to repel multiple attacks by the Taliban.

[171] And they've been fighting inside the city right up close to the governor's palace.

[172] And he's still hanging in there.

[173] and seems to be able to repel them.

[174] And so that shows that I think there are people who are capable of fighting and still determined to fight.

[175] So there are some holdouts, at least for now, it sounds like.

[176] Yes, there certainly are.

[177] This is kind of a crystal ball kind of question, but, you know, you've been covering Afghanistan for 30 years.

[178] In your mind, where does it go from here?

[179] What are we seeing right now?

[180] What does it mean?

[181] It's very hard to predict Afghanistan.

[182] It's always surprising.

[183] you and very careful because you're usually wrong if you try and predict on Afghanistan.

[184] But I mean, I think there's two scenarios that Taliban could well take control, whether they take it all by fighting or they achieve enough territory to do a stranglehold on the capital and then they perhaps do some sort of agreement or coup or anything is possible.

[185] But I think that's what the Taliban are set on.

[186] They would like to take Kabul and take the whole country.

[187] And if they do, then I think we will see a fundamentalist, very extreme regime back in power.

[188] And I think we will see Afghanistan slide backwards in terms of democracy and human rights and freedoms.

[189] Or you could get what everyone has been hoping, you know, the international community's hoped for is some kind of peace deal where there's a sharing of power.

[190] anyone that I know who has studied the Taliban or who knows the Taliban, just say that's not on the cards with the Taliban.

[191] So I just don't see that happening.

[192] So it's looking very grim, I think.

[193] Very grim for anyone who believed in these last two decades of progress for Afghanistan.

[194] And, you know, for all its faults, and I wrote about a lot of them, you know, all the civilian casualties, all the failures of the international effort there.

[195] the mistakes made, and so on.

[196] I think the Afghans made huge strides, you know.

[197] They did have democracy.

[198] They did have freedoms.

[199] You know, you saw a whole generation's getting educated.

[200] I mean, all these kids who only grew up after 9 -11, you know, have managed to make it to college.

[201] And they've done a lot of rebuilding.

[202] And that's what's very distressing already.

[203] You see the Taliban destroying so much of what was built in the last 10, 20 years.

[204] You know, roads, district buildings, you know, customs houses.

[205] And asphalt roads, they're just digging up because they were laid by the Americans, they say, and we don't need these.

[206] So really some wanton destruction, which just, it's madding to see because there's a lot of effort that went into all that.

[207] Let me ask this.

[208] What do Afghans want?

[209] I think every Afghan will tell you they want peace.

[210] They want peace and security.

[211] They want to be able to get.

[212] their fruit to market.

[213] They want to get, raise their kids.

[214] The people who are appealing to me to help to get out are usually saying they're doing it for their children, you know, especially their girls.

[215] They can't bear to see them have to sit at home and be robbed of an education just because they're girls.

[216] So that's the main thing people want.

[217] The kids want to go to school.

[218] The families want to be able to earn a living and have safety.

[219] And so a Taliban win could bring a forced peace, but most people are predicting that they won't because they're trying to take control by force.

[220] And so there will be inevitably resistance and opposition.

[221] And so the war will go on.

[222] There's no doubt.

[223] The Afghans have been fighting for 40 years and they're probably going to fight for many more.

[224] Carleta, thank you.

[225] Okay, pleasure.

[226] We'll be right back.

[227] Here's what else you need to know today.

[228] A major United Nations report on climate change written by hundreds of scientists has found that the world can no longer stop global warming from intensifying over the next 30 years.

[229] The report is a damning indictment of an unwillingness to curb fossil fuel emissions that has locked in extreme weather for the next several decades.

[230] And...

[231] The Democratic budget will be the most significant legislation for a major.

[232] American family since the era of the New Deal and the great society.

[233] On Monday, Congressional Democrats released a proposed $3 .5 trillion budget plan that would represent a historic expansion of the social safety net.

[234] It is big, bold change, the kind of change America thirsts for.

[235] The budget plan is a follow -up to the proposed bipartisan infrastructure bill that is expected to pass this morning.

[236] The budget plan would raise spending on health care, child care and elder care, education and climate change, and pay for it all by raising taxes on the wealthy corporations and large inheritances.

[237] Democrats hope to pass the budget plan through a process that would require a simple majority in the Senate and therefore bypass a Republican filibuster.

[238] Today's episode was produced by Luke Fanderpluk, Lindsay Garrison, and Sydney Harper, with help from Eric Kruppke and Claire Tennis Getter.

[239] It was edited by M .J. Davis Lynn, engineered by Chris Wood, and contains original music by Marion Lazzano.

[240] It for the Daily.

[241] I'm Michael Babarro.

[242] See you tomorrow.