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Why Trump Can’t Quit Mohammed bin Salman

Why Trump Can’t Quit Mohammed bin Salman

The Daily XX

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Full Transcription:

[0] From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbar.

[1] This is the Daily.

[2] Today.

[3] From the moment he was named the country's day -to -day leader, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, has disappointed the United States over and over again.

[4] Why the Trump White House can't let go of Muhammad bin Salman.

[5] It's Tuesday, October 23rd.

[6] Mark, where does President Trump's relationship with Muhammad bin Salman?

[7] begin?

[8] Well, the best date that one can probably point to is March of 2017.

[9] It's a couple of months after President Trump has taken office.

[10] It's a snowy day in Washington, and Muhammad bin Salman, the deputy crown prince of Saudi Arabia, comes to the White House, and he's given something extraordinary for a person of his young age and his standing.

[11] He's 31 years old, which is lunch in the state dining room with President Trump, his son and law, Jared Kushner and other senior officials.

[12] Mark Landler covers the White House for the Times.

[13] And they sit there for about 90 minutes as MBS, as he's known, he's known by his initials, explains to President Trump his vision for modernizing Saudi Arabia.

[14] And what's so unusual about a deputy crown prince getting an audience with the president of the United States?

[15] I think the notion here that the president would host a man of this age who's not even the number two official in his country.

[16] Because remember, there's the king.

[17] And at the time there was a crown prince, Muhammad bin Nayan, who might have been accorded that kind of reception.

[18] But for the number three guy to get a lunch in the state dining room was truly extraordinary.

[19] And it was an interesting insight into how much of a bet the White House was putting on this young man. Remember, King Solomon, his father is in his 80s.

[20] His health is fragile.

[21] And Muhammad bin Salman, is the favorite son of his father, the king, and although Muhammad bin Nayan, the crown prince, was still a powerful figure.

[22] His standing was eroding, and he was clearly at some risk of not being chosen as the heir apparent.

[23] And so the Trump White House had an instinct that the younger man, Muhammad bin Salman, was the right horse to back.

[24] He was already at that point in charge of the defense ministry, But more importantly, he had begun laying out his own vision for the future of Saudi Arabia.

[25] Saudi Arabia has always been a country that has inched forward, has moved very slowly.

[26] The government is extremely cautious and careful.

[27] This young man felt that he needed to modernize Saudi Arabia with bold strokes.

[28] He needed to make giant leaps into a more modern future, into a more progressive future.

[29] And I think the Trump administration saw great promises.

[30] this.

[31] And I think the key element for them was his position on Iran.

[32] He's extremely hawkish on Iran.

[33] And so his anti -Iran position dovetailed with the position of the Trump administration and President Trump's aides when they came into office.

[34] So after the president hosts MBS in this unusual way at the White House, where does the relationship go from there?

[35] Well, the key thing that happens next is that...

[36] Hey, good morning and let's get straight to the breaking news.

[37] Donald J. Trump arriving in Saudi Arabia for his first foreign trip as president.

[38] The president, urged on by his son -in -law, Jared, decides to make Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, his first stop as a president overseas.

[39] This is an American first.

[40] Never before has a president set foot on Saudi soil for his first trip abroad.

[41] When Air Force One touched down, the Saudi king personally greeting the president and first lady.

[42] And the thinking is that the symbol that will be sent by him going there first will really lock in the alliance with Saudi Arabia will really make Saudi Arabia the linchpin of Trump's Middle East strategy.

[43] I stand before you as a representative of the American people to deliver a message of friendship and hope and love.

[44] That is why I chose to make my first foreign visit a trip to the heart of the Muslim world.

[45] He also extracts promises from Saudi Arabia to spend an enormous amount of money on military equipment, on weapons.

[46] Today's big highlight was the signing of a $110 billion arms deal between the two countries.

[47] The U .S. will give fighter jets, tanks, combat ships, and more to the Persian Gulf country, all of it getting made in America, so the government will have to hire more people to make all those new vehicles.

[48] Remember, MBS runs the Defense Minister, So he is able to deliver this very big promise to the president that Saudi Arabia will buy this many weapons.

[49] So that's the point of the visit.

[50] They're locking in Muhammad bin Salman as their primary interlocutor to the Saudis.

[51] So what happens after President Trump leaves Saudi Arabia, having strongly signaled that Muhammad bin Salman is his guy?

[52] Well, the first thing that happens is that MBS is officially designated as the Crown Prince.

[53] And do we think those two things are related that, in a sense, President Trump has handpicked the leader of Saudi Arabia?

[54] I think President Trump's endorsement of MBS certainly helped him.

[55] This, after all, is Saudi Arabia's most important ally, its major economic partner, and the source of foreign investment.

[56] So getting the United States president to give his stamp of approval to a future leader is a big deal for the Saudis.

[57] There are big changes in Saudi Arabia.

[58] Women are joining the workforce in record numbers.

[59] And next year, they'll finally be allowed to drive after more than two decades of protests.

[60] And then, as Crown Prince, MBS begins to deliver on his progressive vision.

[61] By Saudi standards, the country's new Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, is a reformer.

[62] And it's not just women who feel more liberated.

[63] Take a look at South.

[64] Saudi Arabia's stand -up comedy scene.

[65] Now, one company feeling the impact of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's moves towards modernizing his country, AMC Entertainment announced it will open Saudi Arabia's first movie theater in more than 35 years.

[66] It catches the imagination of commentators in the West.

[67] It really makes it seem like this guy is the real deal.

[68] His nickname in the kingdom is Mr. Everything.

[69] He has purview of the economy, over security, over military, and obviously politics.

[70] And then he hosts this very high -profile investor conference in the fall, where he brings in Titans of Wall Street and high -tech entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley, and he brings them all to Riyadh and has a very splashy, opulent conference devoted to ways in which Saudi Arabia is going to modernize.

[71] So this is his brain shout.

[72] You've seen a lot of Western consulting firms get a piece of this.

[73] and he really wants to push Saudi Arabia into the modern era when...

[74] And why exactly is it so appealing to the West, especially to leaders like President Trump and to his son -in -Lajar Kushner, to global business leaders and intellectuals, to have someone leading Saudi Arabia who is seen as a social reformer?

[75] Well, I think part of the issue goes to the nature of the relationship the United States has had with Saudi Arabia for decades.

[76] This has always been an alliance really more built on interest than values.

[77] We needed Saudi Arabia for oil.

[78] We needed Saudi Arabia as a base for our military in the region.

[79] We needed Saudi Arabia as an ally in our competition with Iran.

[80] But we never really viewed Saudi Arabia as a partner in human rights or a country that we could feel really good about being associated with.

[81] There was always a bit of a subtext to the relationship.

[82] between the United States and Saudi Arabia that there was some hypocrisy at play.

[83] So by bringing in a new ruler with a kind of a progressive, moderate streak, it might enable us to feel good about our relationship with Saudi Arabia on more than just the crass, transactional, national security and energy level.

[84] We might actually be friends with Saudi Arabia and take pride in that friendship.

[85] So from everything you're saying, Mark, this looks like a very early triumph for the Trump administration in the world of foreign policy.

[86] The president seems to have deeply influenced the choice of who will lead Saudi Arabia.

[87] And that leader, Muhammad bin Salman, is doing the kind of Western -style -looking reforms that make the entire relationship look and feel the way we wanted to.

[88] Yes.

[89] For a new administration, it was actually kind of a masterstroke on the global stage.

[90] And then, When things started going wrong.

[91] Muhammad bin Salman picked a nasty squabble with his Persian Gulf neighbor, Qatar.

[92] Saudi Arabia has closed this border, imposing a de facto foot blockade on its neighbor.

[93] The reason behind the blockade charges that Qatar is supporting terror organizations like so -called Islamic State in Egypt's former rulers, the Muslim Brotherhood, which Qatar denies.

[94] He imprisoned dozens of wealthy Saudis.

[95] Palace intrigued to the nth degree.

[96] We're seeing a truly historic upheaval unfold right now.

[97] Crown Prince MBS rolled out a huge and frankly bizarre crackdown where he rounded up hundreds of members of the royal family and other rich Saudis and basically jailed them, including torturing some of them in Riyadh's Ritz -Carlton Hotel until lots of them were forced to hand over tons of money to him.

[98] He called it an anti -corruption campaign, other people merely called it a purge.

[99] Saudi Arabia considers Canada's comments on human rights in the kingdom to be an interference in its affairs that requires what it calls a sharp response.

[100] He picked an absolutely needless diplomatic fight with the Canadians.

[101] It all began with a tweet from Canada's Foreign Affairs Ministry, stating concerns over Saudi Arabia's arrest of rights activists and demanding their immediate release.

[102] And then he kidnaps and detains the Prime Minister of Lebanon.

[103] Lebanon remains in a state of crisis more than a week out.

[104] after its prime minister, Sad al -Hadiri, unexpectedly resigned while on a trip to Saudi Arabia.

[105] Lebanon's president, Michelle Aoun, and others have accused Saudi Arabia of kidnapping Haredi and forcing him to resign against his will.

[106] He engaged in a reckless war across the southern border in Yemen, where Saudi -led airstrikes have killed an untold number of civilians, including many children.

[107] The Saudis enforced a blockade, shutting down.

[108] ports and border crossings, preventing critical aid from getting to Yemen.

[109] And lastly, he hasn't bought the $110 billion worth of weapons from the United States that were promised back during President Trump's visit to Riyadh.

[110] In fact, up till now, the Saudis have bought only about $14 .5 billion of that $110 billion.

[111] So this huge upside that the Trump administration was promising has yet to materialize.

[112] So how is President Trump, who has bet on him as this Western -friendly reformer, responding to these disappointing turns in this relationship?

[113] President Trump, for the most part, has accepted, if not endorsed, some of these moves.

[114] He tweeted, I have great confidence in King Solomon and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia.

[115] They know exactly what they are doing.

[116] Some of those they are harshly treating have been milking their country for years.

[117] The White House put out a lengthy statement after the incident with the wealthy Saudis being locked up in the Ritz -Carlton, in which he effectively endorsed the prince and said he believed in what he was trying to do to clean up his kingdom.

[118] He has not publicly chided him for the war in Yemen.

[119] He did ask him to try to resolve the dispute with Qatar, but when the Saudis basically defied him and continued with the blockade of Qatar, President Trump went quiet.

[120] The Trump administration seems willing to let the prince have plenty of leeway.

[121] And why would that be, though?

[122] You said earlier that the reason President Trump has bet on MBS is that he provides the justification for the relationship.

[123] He is the best possible face for all the flaws and messiness of the Saudi Arabian United States Alliance.

[124] But in these actions, he seems to be emerging as a figure that would embarrass the United States.

[125] So why would President Trump not attempt to exercise greater influence over his hand -picked leader of Saudi Arabia after this series of of events.

[126] I think President Trump would argue that Muhammad bin Salman needs the opportunity to establish himself, to consolidate power.

[127] He's operating in a tough part of the world.

[128] But above all, I think the case he would make is that on the ultimate strategic issue of combating Iran, which is the centerpiece of President Trump's Middle East strategy, Muhammad bin Salman is a critical player.

[129] Remember, in Yemen, Saudi Arabia is fighting the Houthi rebels.

[130] The Houthis are backed by Iran.

[131] So it's important in the fight against Iranian proxies in the region to have Saudi Arabia support.

[132] And so to the extent that Iran is really the big prize for President Trump, Muhammad bin Salman is his wingman in that effort.

[133] Hmm.

[134] So what's the message that this inaction by President Trump sends to Muhammad bin Salman?

[135] If he knows that so long as Iran's being taken care of, everything else will more or less be forgiven.

[136] Well, the message is that he has a free hand to do whatever he wants.

[137] And that is above all the message that MBS has taken for the last 12 months.

[138] And that brings us to October 2nd when Jamal Khashoggi, a dissident Saudi journalist, enters the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

[139] The 59 -year -old journalist went to the country.

[140] consulate with his Turkish fiancé to get documents for their upcoming marriage.

[141] The fiancé waited outside for five hours until finally calling police.

[142] Jamal Khashoggi never comes out of the Saudi consulate.

[143] And what we know now is that when he went inside...