RR The Wire 1630Z October 11, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 163011Z OCT 23
ICOD: 153011Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: ISRAEL STRIKES TARGETS IN SYRIA AND LEBANON. FINLAND DETECTS UNDERSEA PIPELINE ATTACK.

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-International Events-
Middle East Front: IDF makes final preparations for Gaza invasion. Israel strikes targets in Lebanon as Hezbollah militants conduct limited skirmishes along the border. Israel strikes targets in Syria in response to alleged mortar fire originating IVO Quneitra. IDF begins Naval bombardment and airstrikes of Egypt/Gaza Rafah border crossing after ordering noncombatants in Gaza to flee to Egypt via same crossing. Evidence begins to mount indicating the use of White Phosphorous rounds by IDF on Gaza. Various Palestinian-aligned splinter groups make preparations for operations around the world, increasing threatening rhetoric, particularly in the US and Europe.
US CSG-12 arrives O/S, Eastern Med. 101st ABN reportedly preparing to deploy to Jordan. Various US SOF units already deployed to Israel. HMS Prince of Wales CSG departs Norfolk, Virginia, possibly also to deploy to the Med at a later date.
European Front: Clashes erupt at protests as conflict escalates in the Middle East. The US sends additional $200 million to Ukraine.
Baltic Front: Finland alleges deliberate pipeline sabotage after detecting pressure drop in the Baltic-Connector pipeline on Sunday. This pipeline transports LNG between Finland and Estonia.
Balkan Front: Bosnian nationalists rally in Sarajevo to support Palestine on the eve of high tensions in the region. Before the Israeli war, tensions between Bosnia/Kosovo flared, resulting in border clashes that injured demonstrators.
-The Home Front-
USA: California creates and implements Ebony Alert, a dedicated Amber Alert for missing Black children. This is the first emergency service to prioritize response based on race. US House report indicates 99% of illegal immigrants encountered since 2021 have not been deported, and contact has been lost with the overwhelming majority.
-Analyst Comments-
Information warfare abounds following various atrocities of war, many of which cannot independently be verified. Caution must be exercised in the information space as all sides in the current conflict have long histories of narrative shaping. Outside the immediate warzone, tensions will continue to grow as both sides demonize any attempt at neutrality. Many US politicians and pundits have shared uncorroborated stories, old videos, and completely false information on social media, with no concern for verifying most of the information they are repeating. Due to the Illusory Truth Effect, it will become increasingly difficult to discern the truth as time goes on.
Extremely serious and concerning rhetoric runs rampant on social media; everything from chemical to nuclear weapons has been openly discussed by high ranking political officials on all sides of the conflict. The question remains as to how much of this rhetoric will be backed up with action. The use of White Phosphorus munitions by IDF is highly likely, as video evidence all but confirms this munition’s use. However, genuine video evidence has been mixed with old videos from the Syrian War, further weaponizing the use of information in this conlict.
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Analyst: S2A
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The Wire - 11 October, 2023