Voters Are Wary of Biden. Here’s Why He Might Win Anyway

[0] From New York Times, I'm Michael Bobarrow.

[1] This is a daily.

[2] Today.

[3] More than half of Democrats don't want Joe Biden to seek a second term.

[4] But as he formally embarks on his re -election campaign, Democratic leaders are increasingly confident that the polls fail to capture Biden's real strength and that the electoral map favors him over a Republican.

[5] My colleague, Jonathan Weissman, explains why.

[6] It's Wednesday, April 26th.

[7] Jonathan, we woke up Tuesday morning to a form of news.

[8] That's not exactly earth -shattering, not exactly shocking, but nevertheless, very important.

[9] That's right.

[10] Joe Biden is running for re -election, and he announced it as we expected with a video posted to the internet.

[11] Freedom.

[12] Personal freedom is fundamental to who we are as Americans.

[13] And he repeatedly evokes two words, freedom and rights.

[14] But you know, around the country, Maggi Extremists are lining up to take on those bedrock freedoms.

[15] He talks about banning books.

[16] He talks about people trying to control who you love.

[17] Dictating what health care decisions women can make.

[18] People trying to tell women what they can do with their pregnancies.

[19] All I'm making more difficult for you to buy.

[20] be able to vote.

[21] Joe Biden isn't making an argument about his record as president.

[22] When I ran for president four years ago, I said we're in a battle for the soul of America, and we still are.

[23] He's making an argument that this is a values election for what he called four years ago, the soul of America.

[24] That's why I'm running for re -election, because I know America.

[25] And he puts the 2024 race as another contest between those who want to curtail our rights and freedoms and those who want to push the nation forward toward a more perfect union.

[26] Let's finish this job.

[27] I know we can because this is the United States America.

[28] There's nothing, simply nothing we cannot do if we do together.

[29] And what's interesting about this video is that Biden does not explicitly refer to Donald.

[30] Trump.

[31] But the fact that Trump is also running again is clearly the backdrop for this entire announcement.

[32] And so Biden seems to be anticipating a rematch, a 2020 campaign part two.

[33] But if we're being honest, this is not a Biden re -election campaign that voters of either party have exactly been clamoring for.

[34] No. About 70 percent of Americans don't want Joe Biden to run for election, and that includes about 51 % of Democrats.

[35] The man will be 81 years old on election day 24.

[36] He is already the oldest president in American history.

[37] He'll be 86 at the end of his second term.

[38] That's pretty old.

[39] And in the eyes of a lot of Americans, there's a real worry there.

[40] It's a very difficult and tricky issue.

[41] And yet, if you talk to the Democratic cognoscenti, the leaders of the party, they're pretty happy with the way things are developing.

[42] So explain that gap between voters and Democratic Party leaders and why they are so confident despite voters' anxieties around Biden.

[43] Democratic leaders are looking at the structural advantages that President Biden has going into 2024.

[44] and the most important structural advantage is the map.

[45] Right now, there are only really three big swing states that matter.

[46] Three, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia.

[47] It didn't used to be that.

[48] Remember when there were huge fights over Florida and Ohio?

[49] Those are Republican.

[50] Remember, there used to be fights over Virginia.

[51] Virginia's Democratic.

[52] So we're left with three real battlegrounds that count.

[53] Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

[54] And President Biden only has to win one of those.

[55] The Republicans need to sweep all three.

[56] And Democrats feel pretty confident they will win either Wisconsin, Arizona, or Georgia.

[57] Okay, I just want to pause because this is a little bit of a mind -blowing mathematical equation that you have just laid out.

[58] Democrats, Biden, can win back the White House by winning just one of three of the states, you just mentioned.

[59] That would get Biden if he performs the way we think you will elsewhere in the country to the 270 electoral college votes.

[60] He needs to win the election.

[61] But Republicans have to sweep these three states in order to beat Biden and take back the White House.

[62] So those odds are extremely good for President Biden if Democrats truly are in good standing in these three states.

[63] So how good is there standing in these three states?

[64] So let's start with Georgia.

[65] Now, this state was Republican for a very, very long time.

[66] But in 2020, Joe Biden narrowly won Georgia.

[67] Right.

[68] Then a few weeks later, in a runoff, two Democratic senators, John Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, won the state, both of them.

[69] There's another day.

[70] data point.

[71] In 2022, Raphael Warnock had to stand for re -election again and beat the Republican Herschel Walker.

[72] So now we have multiple data points that do point to the fact that Georgia is now a swing state that Democrats can win in statewide.

[73] And now let's skip over to Arizona.

[74] In 2020, Joe Biden won Arizona narrowly.

[75] But then two years later, in 2022, we had a dramatic contest for the governorship of Arizona where Kerry Lake ran as a Trump -era -apparent against a fairly quiet, low -key Democrat, and again, the Democratic candidate for governor won.

[76] And going into 2024, there's a lot of turmoil on the right in Arizona, whereas the Democrats now have an infrastructure with a Democratic governor that will help Joe Biden try to defend his 2020 victory there.

[77] Got it.

[78] Okay.

[79] And then that, I think, brings us to Wisconsin.

[80] Wisconsin is a very interesting state.

[81] It is heavily gerrymandered.

[82] Republicans control the legislature there overwhelmingly.

[83] Right.

[84] But Democrats control statewide offices.

[85] Now, Joe Biden went in in 2020 and won it.

[86] Two years later, in 2022, the Democratic governor, Tony Evers, won re -election narrowly, but he won it.

[87] Now comes the final data point I want to point out.

[88] Earlier this month, in April, there was a heavily contested race for a Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin.

[89] Both parties poured money in.

[90] They took it extremely seriously.

[91] and the Democratic candidate for the Supreme Court won by 11 percentage points.

[92] That was a resounding victory in a state that has been 50 -50 for over a decade.

[93] And in a very good sign for Democrats, that race for Supreme Court revolved around one issue, abortion.

[94] Right, which is a good issue if you're Joe Biden because you are for abortion rights.

[95] and Republicans in this moment are very much restricting abortion.

[96] So from everything you're saying, the thinking from Democrats has to be that winning one of these states, one of these three, seems eminently doable.

[97] They've all proven themselves friendly to Biden in statewide elections since he became president.

[98] And the issues that are coming up in these states like abortion are good for Biden.

[99] So that has to be why Democrats are feeling confident about Joe Biden being their nominee, despite voters' questions about his age and perhaps kind of like menace about him as a candidate.

[100] Right.

[101] Stop looking at nationwide polls.

[102] Stop looking at Joe Biden's approval rating.

[103] Of course, those weigh on our minds, and they certainly weigh on democratic minds.

[104] But if you look at how presidential elections are won, they're won on issues and they're one on.

[105] terrain, the map.

[106] And for now, for now, the map and the issues to rain looks very good for Joe Biden.

[107] If I'm reading between the lines of what you're saying, for Democratic leaders, this is a clear case of it ain't broke, don't try to fix it.

[108] That's a good way to put it.

[109] People know Joe Biden.

[110] They've known him for years and years.

[111] It will be very difficult for Republicans to somehow rebrand him.

[112] And the Democrats are thinking, let's not try anything fancy.

[113] Let's go for it with Joe Biden.

[114] And a challenge to Joe Biden, a primary that perhaps might satisfy some Democrats' hunger for a true contest in which the most popular person emerges, you're saying the leadership of the party just thinks that is a bad idea.

[115] It can only make things more complicated.

[116] Let's not even entertain that idea.

[117] Right.

[118] And let's look at what's happened in the past when an incumbent president has faced a fairly serious challenger in a primary.

[119] There was Jimmy Carter who had to beat back Ted Kennedy, and then there was George H .W. Bush who had to beat back Pat Buchanan.

[120] In both cases, they limped out of the primary season and were beaten by the opposite party in the election.

[121] Democrats don't want that to happen.

[122] And there's a good reason for that, because if Joe Biden faces an opponent, especially a more liberal opponent, he'll be pulled to the left on very difficult issues, and he might have to embrace positions to win over Democrats that would come back to haunt him in November against the Republican candidate.

[123] And so the question for Republicans now, given that glide path you described to Biden's renomination is, is there anything that they can do to overcome this map?

[124] Of course, this is a nation that is extremely narrowly divided, but it will be difficult.

[125] We'll be right back.

[126] So, Jonathan, what can Republicans do with Donald Trump as their leading frontrunner for the nomination in 2020?

[127] to counteract that math you just described as difficult for them to overcome.

[128] It will be really hard.

[129] The fact is everyone knows Donald Trump.

[130] They all have an opinion.

[131] More than half the country doesn't like him.

[132] And to have Trump as their standard bearer makes it virtually impossible for Republicans to make this a referendum on Joe Biden because Trump is always going to be the counter the contrast.

[133] It will be a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

[134] And let's look at these states.

[135] In Georgia, Donald Trump chose Herschel Walker to run for the Senate, and he lost.

[136] In Arizona, Donald Trump loved Carrie Lake.

[137] Carrie Lake was the female Donald Trump, and she lost her race for governor, even in Wisconsin.

[138] Donald Trump chose the candidate to challenge Governor Tony Evers and a Again, the Republican candidate lost the race.

[139] Right.

[140] So presumably if Donald Trump himself is on the ballot in these three states, he's not going to fare much better than the candidates he endorsed in those states who lost all within the past two years.

[141] It's hard to see how Donald Trump changes who Donald Trump is.

[142] He never has.

[143] He never will.

[144] Okay.

[145] So what about an alternative to Trump, such as Florida Governor Juan DeSantis, would nominating someone, would nominating something?

[146] like DeSantis help Republicans do better in these three states?

[147] Probably not.

[148] DeSantis has kind of defined himself and his brand as a social conservative.

[149] He just signed a bill in Florida banning abortion at six weeks.

[150] He's now tarred as an anti -abortion candidate.

[151] But moreover, his jousting with Disney, his constant attacks on wokeism have made him a hero among social conservatives.

[152] But for swing voters who are looking for a more economic message, who are looking for a more centrist message, Ron DeSantis is not the answer.

[153] It's not clear that in those three states, Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, DeSantis's standing and chances are that much better than Donald Trump's.

[154] Because what would seem to be best for Republicans in those three states would probably be someone who is moderate, especially on social issues.

[155] Yes, but as we've all learned by now, the Republican primary process really is led by social conservatives and very conservative voters.

[156] I was just in Iowa over the weekend at an evangelical Republican gathering called the Faith and Freedom Forum.

[157] Those voters, Iowans, will be the first to vote on the nominally.

[158] for the Republican Party, and they very much are looking for a fighter.

[159] They're looking for somebody who will really grapple with the fate of abortion, with the fate of transgender athletes.

[160] They want to go straight at the hot -button issues in conservative territory, not those swing issues that might have more of appeal in a general election.

[161] So you're saying the Republican primary process, which is very heavily influenced by people like those who went to the Faith and Freedom Forum that you attended in Iowa, is designed to pick a socially conservative candidate, the kind of candidate who might be very poorly positioned to win in these three states, Georgia, Wisconsin, Arizona, in the general election against Biden.

[162] Yeah.

[163] The fact is, whereas the Democratic Party right now is being led by their leaders, the Republican Party is being led by their voters and their voters are pulling their candidates to the right.

[164] So what can Republicans do when their process seems to predetermine a conservative candidate like Trump or DeSantis to fundamentally improve their odds in these three states?

[165] Republicans need to really nationalize this race.

[166] They need to make enough Americans think we just can't have another four years of Joe Biden in the White House.

[167] And we started to see that Tuesday morning.

[168] This just in, we can now call the 2024 presidential race for Joe Biden.

[169] The Republican National Committee's answer to Joe Biden's announcement video was a video of its own, and it laid out the world of Joe Biden's second term.

[170] This morning, an emboldened China invades Taiwan.

[171] China invading Taiwan and the world at war.

[172] The officials closed the city of San Francisco this morning, citing the escalating crime and fentanyl crisis.

[173] The city of San Francisco being shut down by anarchy.

[174] These are images that actually don't exist.

[175] They were generated by a computer, but they are already trying to make Americans think Joe Biden is just an unacceptable second -term president.

[176] Who's in charge here?

[177] feels like the train is coming off the tracks.

[178] Right.

[179] I watched that video, and it was Republicans saying that Biden is weak and that the consequences would be dangerous.

[180] And if you read between the lines of that ad, it seems to kind of point to the issue of capability and kind of age.

[181] Yes, the imagery that they're using is a chaotic America with no one really at the helm.

[182] And the implication is that an oxygenarian at the White House wouldn't be able to tame the forces in the United States and the globe that are working toward diminishing the United States as a nation, as a power.

[183] We should say, Jonathan, fact check here, Donald Trump isn't all that much younger than Joe Biden.

[184] So that argument seems a little bit complicated.

[185] That's right.

[186] Trump would also be in his upper 70s by the time the election rolls around.

[187] And Americans in poll after poll also say he's too old.

[188] But they will put Joe Biden and Donald Trump next to each other in ad after ad.

[189] They will select the right clips to make Trump or whoever the nominee is look virile, look tough, look masculine, and look like he could just be able.

[190] Beat Joe Biden up.

[191] This is our man. So given this anticipated line of Republican attack, how can Biden campaign in a way that maximizes his chances in these three states we've been talking about?

[192] What do you foresee as a strategy that plays with that reality?

[193] 2020 was the weirdest campaign.

[194] Remember, it was in the middle of the pandemic, and we didn't see Joe Biden pressing the flesh holding huge, rallies the way Donald Trump was.

[195] Right.

[196] And obviously obeying the rules of the pandemic.

[197] 2024 will also be an odd, odd election because the Democrats don't want to put Biden toe to toe with Trump in huge arenas full of people.

[198] They know that that's not Joe Biden's strength.

[199] They probably couldn't fill a huge arena of people coming to hear Joe Biden.

[200] So what they'll have him do is go across the country, and especially to those three states, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia, to cut ribbons and break ground on new highways, bridges, factories, semiconductor plants, wind farms, all funded by programs and legislation that Joe Biden signed into law in his first two years of office.

[201] So this might end up feeling like a kind of smallish local form of a presidential.

[202] I mean, if your goal is to win those three states, and Biden only needs one of them, but presumably he'd love to win all three, he can run the equivalent of three local state races, right?

[203] And it may feel to people who live in Wisconsin or Georgia or Arizona, like, oh, it's Tuesday.

[204] So Biden's doing, you know, a ribbon cutting downtown once again.

[205] Yeah, I grew up in Georgia.

[206] My mother lives in Atlanta.

[207] My sister lives in Atlanta.

[208] My brother lives in Atlanta.

[209] And I warned them that they are about to be hit by a deluge of advertising that you probably won't see in Ohio and Florida the way you once did.

[210] Now, I want to just caution here that we're talking about this moment.

[211] And things can change.

[212] Right now, the economy is hanging tough.

[213] But let's say a recession hits and suddenly the map changes because circumstances have changed.

[214] And then you're going to have to see Joe Biden defend turf that he didn't want to.

[215] Right.

[216] You know, we are 18 months from this election.

[217] That's a long way away.

[218] A lot can happen in 18 months.

[219] And the other thing that could change and that perhaps seems most risky for Biden is that he could change.

[220] He could suddenly have a health scare.

[221] Biden's health is the big unknown in this race.

[222] You know, what if something happens?

[223] What if Joe Biden has to have an unexpected surgery?

[224] And Kamala Harris is the president for a month as he's recovering.

[225] What if something even more serious happens?

[226] We don't know.

[227] And of course, a health crisis for the president would completely change the dynamics of this race.

[228] A lot.

[229] A lot is riding.

[230] on him staying healthy.

[231] And if Biden does stay healthy, and if Republicans nominate one of the two candidates, it looks like they might, then we are dealing with a race that is, as you have explained, structurally very sound for Democrats.

[232] Their chances are quite solid.

[233] But it would be a re -election if it happens, not based so much on passion for Biden, but rather a kind of small, carefully cultivated electoral map, right?

[234] And in that sense, it has a kind of moneyball quality to it, right?

[235] In this case, to politics.

[236] It's a little bit bloodless.

[237] I mean, in politics, winning is winning is winning.

[238] But this would be a distinct kind of reelection if it happens.

[239] Well, Joe Biden can make this campaign whatever he wants to, as big or as small as he wants.

[240] His launch video did talk about large themes of freedom and rights.

[241] But at its heart, this is about Joe Biden.

[242] And is Joe Biden loved?

[243] Is he revered?

[244] No, he's not.

[245] But he's not hated either.

[246] Joe Biden inspires a certain comfort level.

[247] And, you know, against the Republicans that he wants to run against, comfort might just be good enough.

[248] Jonathan?

[249] Thank you very much.

[250] We appreciate it.

[251] Thank you for having me. We'll be right back.

[252] Here's what else you need to know day.

[253] The Biden administration says that the ISIS leader responsible for the death of 13 American soldiers and dozens of civilians at the Kabul airport in 2021 has been killed by the Taliban.

[254] The United States has refused to identify the ISIS leader but said he planned the now infamous superiors, which was designed to inflict mass casualties at the airport as the U .S. evacuated American soldiers and Afghan civilians in the days before the Taliban took over the capital.

[255] And in a sign that the regional banking crisis may not be over, the stock price of First Republic Bank of San Francisco plunged by 50 % on Monday after the bank disclosed that customers have withdrawn more than half of the bank's money over the past few weeks.

[256] First Republic already received a $30 billion bailout from rival banks last month, but the Times reports that its ongoing problems may require a new infusion of cash or a government takeover.

[257] Today's episode was produced by Diana Wynne and Muj Zady.

[258] It was edited by Rachel Quester, Patricia Willans, and Dennis.

[259] Evan Taylor, contains original music by Dan Powell and Diane Wong, and was engineered by Chris Wood.

[260] Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly.

[261] That's it for the daily.

[262] I'm Michael Babarro.

[263] See you tomorrow.