Morning Wire XX
[0] Democrats on Capitol Hill are sounding the alarm about the upcoming election, pointing to the latest poll of likely voters from the New York Times.
[1] We break down the surprising trends, including which demographics are on pace to decide the country's future.
[2] I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire Editor -in -Chief John Bickley.
[3] It's Tuesday, October 18th, and this is Morning Wire.
[4] Deadly attacks against police officers have surged over the past two weeks.
[5] years, rising nearly 50 % since 2020.
[6] These officers sign up to do a job, is to protect and serve, but not to take gunfire.
[7] And as election day nears, more and more Democratic leaders are distancing themselves from President Biden, even in deep blue states like New York.
[8] We really are looking for a federal response to this.
[9] Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire.
[10] Stay tuned.
[11] We have the news you need to know.
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[20] After another record -breaking inflation report last week, a new poll from the New York Times is setting off alarm bells for Democrats and bolstering Republican hopes of a red wave.
[21] Joining us to discuss is Daily Wire senior editor, Cabot Phillips.
[22] So, Cabot, we've got a significant poll here that's really caused a stir in Washington.
[23] the top line findings from this poll.
[24] Can you summarize them for us?
[25] Yeah, this one had a lot of people talking.
[26] So the main headline here is that any momentum Democrats had over the summer is gone.
[27] According to the New York Times, 49 % of voters now say they prefer Republicans ahead of midterms, while just 45 % say they want Democrats in charge.
[28] The poll also found that men favored Republicans 50 to 45, which isn't all that surprising given recent trends.
[29] But it gets interesting when we look at women.
[30] They've typically leaned left over the last few cycles.
[31] And right now, it's a dead even 47 to 47 in the poll.
[32] And it gets even worse when we zoom in.
[33] If you look at female independents, in September, they favor Democrats by 14 points.
[34] Now, just one month later, independent women favor Republicans.
[35] Get this by 18 percentage points.
[36] That's a remarkable swing.
[37] It is, and it happened very quickly, especially when you consider the fact that Democrats have been really honing in and campaigning almost nonstop on abortion, which they were hoping would lock in.
[38] the female vote.
[39] According to this poll, at least that strategy does not appear to be working.
[40] It's also worth pointing out the more you dig into the numbers, nearly every demographic shows a shift from Democrats to Republicans.
[41] Yeah, what did we see from other demographics?
[42] Well, one of the big stories over the last year has been whether Democrats would hold on among minority voters.
[43] Remember, we'd started to see signs of waning support there.
[44] 34 % of Latinos say they'll likely vote Republican.
[45] That's compared to 29 % who backed Trump in 2016 and roughly 32 % in 2020.
[46] Likewise, 18 % of black voters say they intend to vote Republican.
[47] That's compared to 8 % in 2016 and 12 % in 2020.
[48] So a clear shift there towards Republicans.
[49] What about issues?
[50] Do we know what's driving this shift toward Republicans?
[51] Yeah.
[52] As you could probably guess, the major takeaway here is that people are still very worried about the economy.
[53] This poll found that 44 % of respondents view the economy as their main issue.
[54] That's five times more people saying the economy than any other issue.
[55] And as we've talked about on the show, voters who say the economy is their top priority tend to split towards the GOP.
[56] For example, those who said inflation was their top issue favored Republicans 64 to 30.
[57] And while Democrats do lead significantly among voters who care about other issues like abortion and climate change, the problem for Democrats right now is that most voters are not financially insulated enough to prioritize social issues right now.
[58] Yeah.
[59] Speaking of being financially insulated, the Times piece also touched on the growing class divide between the two parties.
[60] What do we learn there?
[61] Right.
[62] So this poll was yet another indicator that Democratic support is becoming increasingly isolated to wealthy urban enclaves.
[63] One of the biggest divides is between those who have a bachelor's degree and those who don't.
[64] 55 % of those with the bachelor's plan to vote Democrat compared to 41 % who plan to vote Republican.
[65] And of those who don't have a degree, it's almost the inverse.
[66] 54 % plan to go Republican, while 39 % plan on voting Democrat.
[67] The only exception to all that is black voters.
[68] But as we discussed, their support of Democrats is also starting to softens.
[69] So all around, look, we've got more positive news for Republicans after a summer where it definitely appeared they were losing ground.
[70] Yeah, it seems they have more reason to be optimistic.
[71] Cabot, thanks for reporting.
[72] Anytime.
[73] That's Daily Wire senior editor, Cabot Phillips.
[74] Coming up, police deaths surge over the last two years.
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[86] Violence against police has surged since 2020, with the number of officers killed by gunfire this year on track to be the deadliest total since 2016.
[87] Here to discuss the increasingly dangerous atmosphere for law enforcement is Daily Wire reporter Tim Pierce.
[88] So, Tim, a scary trend for law enforcement.
[89] What kind of numbers are we looking at?
[90] Well, at least 56 police officers have been killed by gunfire so far this year.
[91] That's a 14 % increase over the same time last year and a 45 % increase over the pace set in 2020.
[92] That number includes cases like accidental gunfire, but nearly half of the deaths are a result of ambushes in which officers were targeted because they are police.
[93] Joe Lombardo, who serves as sheriff for Nevada's Clark County and is running to be the state's next governor, acknowledged the growing danger against police officers after one Las Vegas cop was killed responding to a domestic disturbance call last week.
[94] We are seeing an increase in violence associated against our officers on a daily basis.
[95] And last week in Bristol, Connecticut, two officers were killed in the third was injured in what police say was an ambush.
[96] The group of officers were responding to a 911 call for what they believed was a domestic dispute.
[97] Police said the responding officers were caught in a trap that resulted in two of their deaths.
[98] So these individuals intentionally called the police to the home with the plan of killing them?
[99] Yes.
[100] According to the Fraternal Order of Police, from the start of this year through September, 63 ambush -style attacks have taken place against police officers, resulting in 69 officers wounded and 24 killed.
[101] In the first nine months of 2021, the number of attacks was similar, and 75 ambush -style attacks, 72 officers were wounded and 21 were killed.
[102] So if this all started in 2020, are they linking this to the defund movement?
[103] Yeah, or at least to the anti -police rhetoric that intensified around that time.
[104] This latest spike in violence against police appears to trace back to George Floyd's death in May of 2020, and the escalation of the defund the police movement.
[105] The movement was based on the perception that police are systemically racist and a danger to black communities.
[106] As you can imagine, that kind of bad publicity and negative attention has been a real challenge for officer morale.
[107] Many in law enforcement felt that they had been abandoned by city officials who participated in the marches against law enforcement.
[108] Some cities such as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and New York City went as far as cutting their police budgets.
[109] Many of those cities later reversed course after backlash from police and the community as violent crime has surged across the country.
[110] Now, you mentioned that this has been terrible for officer morale.
[111] Do we have any hard data on things like officer attrition?
[112] Yeah, we have some.
[113] FBI data shows that from 2020 to 2021, the number of officers nationally fell from 719 ,000 to 68 ,000.
[114] That's despite rising crime and aggressive recruiting bonuses being offered during that same period.
[115] But another sign of low morale is officer suicides, and this was already an issue.
[116] A 2019 study found that police have the highest suicide rate of any profession.
[117] and they were three times as likely to die by suicide than on the job.
[118] Part of that is access to firearms, but it's also due to the stress of the job.
[119] But there hasn't been a concerted effort to track officer suicides until this year.
[120] The FBI began collecting data this past January to track this, but their report has not been made public yet.
[121] However, at least one department, San Antonio PD, made news last week when their fifth officer in seven months died by suicide.
[122] We don't know the exact circumstances surrounding the officer's death, but a trend like that is concerning.
[123] Four of those deaths were active duty police officers, and one had resigned just two weeks prior to his suicide.
[124] San Antonio Police Chief William McManus addressed the officer's death earlier this month.
[125] Takeaway from me right now is, and what's on my heart, is what more can we do and what did we miss?
[126] That's what is eating at me. Well, it's a very high -pressure job.
[127] Tim, thanks for reporting.
[128] Thanks for having me. That was Daily Wires, Tim Pierce.
[129] With the polls tightening in midterm races, prominent Democrats are distancing themselves from the Biden administration on key issues like immigration.
[130] New York Governor Kathy Hochel recently called on the Biden administration to take ownership of the crisis at the border.
[131] Here with the details is Daily Wire's Michael Whitaker.
[132] Michael, welcome.
[133] So what's this trend you're seeing?
[134] Hey, Georgia, happy to be here.
[135] Now, this trend is manifested in several races, but with Governor Hockel in particular, it is really remarkable as an about face from someone who just last year described herself as a Biden Democrat.
[136] But there are a lot of remarkable things in the upcoming midterm elections.
[137] Deep blue states like New York and Oregon, states or Republicans have not won a statewide election in decades, now seem to have competitive governor's races.
[138] And Republican Lee Zeldin has been consistently closing the gap of Governor Hockel, with some recent polls putting him only a few points behind.
[139] While abortion and the economy are at the forefront of most voters' minds, crime and immigration have also consistently ranked as top issues and major vulnerabilities for Democrats.
[140] Poll suggests that voters trust Republicans over Democrats by about 10 points on both those issues.
[141] Hokel and other New York Democrats have recently come under mounting pressure for rising crime and the surge of illegal immigrants.
[142] Now, is this directly related to the migrants arriving in New York coming on those buses from the border states?
[143] Yes, it is, but New Yorkers are also very concerned about the situation at the border.
[144] Illegal immigration has been surging over the past two years.
[145] Record numbers of migrant councils recorded in the fiscal years of 2021 and 22, 1 .7 and 2 .2 million in those years, respectively.
[146] To put that in the perspective, there were more encounters in fiscal year 2022 than in all four years of the Trump administration combined.
[147] Republican governors like Greg Abbott of Texas, Doug Ducey in Arizona, and even Florida's Ron DeSantis have blamed the inflow on democratic policies, and have been busing thousands of migrants to sanctuary cities like New York City, Washington, D .C., and Chicago, in addition to the handful of sense to the elite coastal on enclave of Marfa's Vineyard.
[148] Critics of the busing have called it political theater, strategy certainly seems to be appealing to the right audience.
[149] City officials are now calling the situation a crisis and pressuring the federal government to address the issue more aggressively.
[150] Now, we've talked about Hockel in New York, but is this a trend we're seeing in other blue states?
[151] In some and some purplish areas as well.
[152] For a while now, we've seen congressmen in blue border districts like Henry Quay are of Texas talking about this.
[153] And as far back as April, vulnerable incumbent senators like Nevada's Catherine Cortez Mastow and Georgia's Raphael Warnock were criticizing Biden's border policy.
[154] Nevada and Georgia are what I'd call purple to blue.
[155] But perhaps the most forceful condemnation and recent memory came from senatorial hopeful Tim Ryan of Ohio, who's in a tight race against J .D. Vance in a state that's trended increasingly red in recent years.
[156] The vice president, Kamala Harris, said just last month that the southern border is secure.
[157] Kamala Harris is absolutely wrong.
[158] Midterm elections are often treated as referendums on the party in power.
[159] And as the party's leader, President Biden is simply not popular right now.
[160] His approval rating is hovered in the 40s for the last few months.
[161] It was in the 30s during parts of the summer.
[162] And unlike other polarizing presidents like Donald Trump or Barack Obama, he just doesn't have much enthusiasm within the party base.
[163] A recent ABC poll suggested that a majority of Democrats, 56 percent, would prefer that someone else was at the top of their ticket in 2024.
[164] Biden is not a popular campaign surrogate, and for many incumbents, it's easier to run away from him and his policies than to run with him.
[165] Well, it'll be interesting to see if this trend holds for the next few weeks.
[166] Michael, thanks for reporting.
[167] Thanks for having me, Georgia.
[168] That was Daily Wires, Michael Whitaker.
[169] Other stories we're tracking this week, the DOJ is recommending a six -month prison sentence and a $200 ,000 fine for former Trump aide Steve Bannon due to his failure to comply with a subpoena from the January 6th committee.
[170] South Korean boy band, BTS, will perform mandatory military service.
[171] Representatives of the group said Monday the oldest member, Jen, will be the first to serve.
[172] The band is set to reconvene again around 2025 after fulfilling their service commitment.
[173] Researchers at Boston University have reportedly developed a new strain of COVID -19 with a mortality rate of 80 % in rodent tests.
[174] Many have expressed concerns that this gain of function research could unleash a horrific new pandemic.
[175] And Kanye West has reportedly come to a deal to purchase Parlor, the conservative social media site.
[176] Thanks for listening to Morning Wire.
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