Two Superpowers Walk Into a Garden

[0] From the New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi, and this is The Daily.

[1] We begin tonight with a critical event for President Biden.

[2] This week, one of the most highly anticipated diplomatic events of the year took place in a mansion outside San Francisco.

[3] President Biden has a high -stake summit today with China, Xi Jinping, somewhere near San Francisco.

[4] Where President Biden and Xi Jinping of China met to repair their country's relations.

[5] This is the first time they are meeting.

[6] The first time they are even, been talking in a year.

[7] And it comes as president.

[8] Which had sunk to one of the lowest points since they were established in 1972.

[9] With the world watching, a lot is riding on this meeting with the nation's biggest rival.

[10] Today, my colleague Edward Wong, on the effort to bring the relationship back from the break.

[11] It's Friday, November 17th.

[12] So Ed, we've been talking to you throughout this year about the world's most important relationship.

[13] And that is the relationship between the United States and China.

[14] And this week, there was a breakthrough of sorts.

[15] President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met on Wednesday in the United States.

[16] So help us understand what was at stake here.

[17] Well, Sabrina, this is the first time that Xi Jinping has come to the United States since 2017.

[18] And these two leaders are the heads of nations that are the preeminent economic and military powers in the world right now.

[19] But these days, what we're seeing is that the military dimension of the relationship is starting to overshadow the economic ties.

[20] The U .S. is constantly telling us about the rapid expansion of China's military, its growth.

[21] And on Beijing side, they see the U .S. as a power that wants to have unfettered military access throughout the Asia Pacific.

[22] So what you're saying is that they are perhaps slowly but steadily becoming military rival.

[23] That's right.

[24] And what we're hearing from President Biden and his aides is that the U .S. and China really need to have high -level diplomacy to figure out what guardrails to put on the relationship so that they don't end up in an armed conflict.

[25] Okay.

[26] So that's the global security stakes of this meeting, which are quite substantial.

[27] That's right.

[28] It's a very fraught backdrop.

[29] Many countries in the world see the relationship between the U .S. and China as the one in the world that could affect the economies.

[30] and even the military development of other countries.

[31] And a lot of people who've been watching the relationship closely say it had reached an all -time low.

[32] We, of course, have talked a lot on the show, you and I, Ed, about China's relationship with the U .S. and how it has soured.

[33] So if we were to go back and remind people what all has happened to lead up to this moment, where would you begin?

[34] What is the moment you would start to help us understand that?

[35] Well, things were already very bad before Biden came, into the office because the relations had entered a downward spiral during the Trump era.

[36] And then when Biden came in, Chinese officials really thought things might improve.

[37] But Biden continued to take a confrontational approach towards China.

[38] And then there were things outside his control that really made things worse.

[39] So one of the biggest flashpoints that took place in U .S.-China relations was when Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, decided to visit Taiwan in August of 2022.

[40] And the House Speaker, one of the highest -ranking officials in the U .S. visiting Taiwan is a big deal.

[41] Something that President Biden had said he didn't want to happen.

[42] And remind me, Ed, why that was such an inflammatory thing?

[43] Well, China sees Taiwan as a part of China, not as an independent government.

[44] And so it doesn't want other countries to have diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

[45] So then China took very aggressive military action.

[46] to retaliate against that.

[47] It fired off missiles around the Taiwan Strait.

[48] And it also went further.

[49] It broke off high -level dialogues of the U .S., including military conversations that were taking place between the top commanders of both countries.

[50] And what does it mean, exactly, Ed, to break off military dialogue?

[51] Well, when you have two countries that have militaries as large as China and the U .S., and when those countries are rivals, you really want to have strong lines of communication.

[52] communication between the military leaders.

[53] The reason is because the militaries of these two countries might brush up against each other in lots of different settings around the world.

[54] And so you want leaders to be able to talk to each other to figure out what's happening if a crisis starts to erupt.

[55] And that could then end up preventing a larger armed conflict.

[56] So in other words, they're trying to prevent the kind of misunderstanding that can lead to conflict, which can happen when there's maximum suspicion and minimal.

[57] communication between two countries, right?

[58] That's right.

[59] So this is very important, and it became an established practice during the Cold War.

[60] In that era, America and the Soviet Union had these very close lines of communication among the militaries in order to prevent nuclear war.

[61] The two militaries were operating all around the globe, and they wanted to make sure that there wasn't a crisis that could expand, like the Cuban missile crisis, for example, that could lead to a nuclear confrontation.

[62] Right, because our relationship with the Soviet Union was.

[63] fundamentally one of two military adversaries, right?

[64] But we managed to avoid nuclear conflict through those back channels, what you're calling military -to -military communication.

[65] That's right.

[66] So I think people understand that this is an important foundation to lay among rivals of this size.

[67] And U .S. officials tell me that this is one of the most important things they can possibly do with China.

[68] They've been saying that military -to -military ties are fairly weak between the U .S. and China, and they're very concerned about this.

[69] And what makes the American officials so anxious is that in recent years, the Chinese and American militaries have been coming to closer and closer contact all across Asia.

[70] This has been happening, for example, in the South China Sea as Chinese vessels and aircraft come into closer contact with American naval ships and American jets there.

[71] And U .S. officials tell me that as these militaries come into closer contact with each other, they really need the leaders of the militaries to be talking quickly to each other, too, to make sure that a crisis does not erupt.

[72] So after China severed these military -to -military communications, what happens then?

[73] Well, within a couple months, President Biden announces a very ambitious policy towards China, which is a restriction on exports of the most advanced microchips to China.

[74] And China sees this as a huge provocation.

[75] They see this as the U .S. trying to limit China's economic growth and to really keep the country down.

[76] So this is another big bump in the relationship.

[77] Is there a point where the two sides try to reset, kind of have a cooling off period?

[78] Well, President Biden and President C have an important meeting that November in Bali.

[79] We begin with a landmark meeting between two of the world's most powerful leaders.

[80] And they're meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit.

[81] In today's meeting, I stand ready to talk candidly.

[82] with my counterpart.

[83] These two men had never met before in person as the leaders of their countries.

[84] As you know, I'm committed to keeping the lines of communications open between you and me personally, but our governments across the board because our two countries have so much that we have an opportunity to deal with.

[85] So the whole purpose of this meeting was for each leader to tell the other one that there needed to be some foundation of stability in the relationship.

[86] They wanted to be able to weather certain storms like what happened with Nancy Pelosi when she went to Taiwan.

[87] They thought that this would be the start of an effort to really bring relations in 2023 back to a higher level.

[88] But then, as we know, of course, that gets tested pretty quickly with that strange Chinese spy balloon floating over Montana in February.

[89] You and I did an episode about that.

[90] It was kind of unclear exactly what it was, whether the Chinese had wanted to send it.

[91] But at any rate, the relationship is still on the rocks.

[92] Right.

[93] And at the moment, Sabrina, U .S. officials were trying to figure out whether C was the one who had given the green light for this balloon to go over the U .S. And that it just happened that the Americans discovered it.

[94] But then U .S. intelligence agencies figured out that the balloon had drifted off course.

[95] And then they also found out that C didn't know about the balloon, that it was a program under the PLA, the Chinese military.

[96] And that she only found out about it after a country.

[97] over the U .S. and that she even got furious at his generals for what happened.

[98] Right.

[99] I mean, I remember ending that episode thinking it was pretty crazy that this huge relationship is blown off course by this little balloon, right?

[100] And at the time, you said, you know, both countries really badly wanted to get to the point where incidents like that did not paralyze them.

[101] But it seemed unlikely at the time.

[102] That's how we ended that episode.

[103] So what gets these leaders back to the table?

[104] What happens?

[105] So the U .S. and China decide to engage in this intense diplomatic scramble to really try and get high -level talks back on track.

[106] And the U .S. starts sending a series of senior Biden aides to China.

[107] The U .S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinkins met with the Chinese foreign minister in Beijing.

[108] In June, I went with Blinken when he made his visit finally to China.

[109] It was his first visit as Secretary of State.

[110] And then some other Cabinet Secretaries followed.

[111] Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will visit U .S. climate envoy John Kerry is in Beijing.

[112] Congress Secretary Gina Romando heading to China this weekend.

[113] She's the fourth senior Biden administration official now to make the trip.

[114] And then Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer met with Chinese president.

[115] Xi Jinping even decided to meet with Chuck Schumer, the senior Democrat in the Senate.

[116] China President Xi Jinping welcomes California Governor Gavin Newsom.

[117] And Gavin Newsom, the governor of California.

[118] And I think what that really showed was that she himself really wanted to get the diplomacy on a stable footing.

[119] And while all this was going on, people in both capitals were wondering whether this meant that she would decide to come to the United States at some point this fall and meet with Biden.

[120] I mean, I remember you and I were talking about this, right?

[121] And it was kind of unclear whether he would.

[122] The jury was out for quite a while.

[123] Yeah, it wasn't quite certain.

[124] just a few weeks ago, U .S. officials were telling me that the chances were probably 70 -30 that she would come.

[125] And here in Washington, among the diplomatic press court and the White House reporters, we were all trying to decide whether pack our bags to go to San Francisco for a meeting.

[126] And then we finally got word last week that she was on his way.

[127] And this was the meeting that people have been waiting for all throughout the year.

[128] We'll be right back.

[129] So what actually happens at this much -anticipated meeting on Wednesday?

[130] State.

[131] Bring us into the room.

[132] Well, Sabrina, Xi Jinping flies into San Francisco, and he and his convoy go south of the city to a vast estate near the coast.

[133] This is the Philoli estate, which is founded by a gold baron a century ago.

[134] It's lush.

[135] There's amazing trees all over the place.

[136] And she pulls up in his Chinese -made red flag limousine at the door of the manor.

[137] And Biden then greets see right there on the red carpet, they shake hands, and then they walk together inside the estate.

[138] And at 1130 or so...

[139] This time of year, about a year and a day ago, we met in Bali.

[140] The two deliver opening remarks.

[141] I value our conversation because I think it's paramount that you and I understand each other clearly, leader to leader, with no misconceptions or miscommunications.

[142] Biden tells Xi that he's there to make sure that the two leaders and the two countries have clear lines of communication, that they really understand each other's intentions.

[143] We have to ensure that competition does not veer into conflict.

[144] And we also have to manage it responsibly, that competition.

[145] Mr. President, good morning.

[146] And she tells Biden and the public, China -U

[147].S.

[148] The

[149] relationship

[150] has