Trump’s Domination and the Battle for No. 2 in Iowa

[0] From New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro.

[1] This is the Daily.

[2] On Monday night, the 2024 presidential race officially began with the Iowa caucuses, where the real drama was the fight for second place.

[3] Today, Reid Epstein takes us inside one of the caucuses, and Shane Goldmacher walks us through the final results.

[4] It's Tuesday.

[5] January 16th.

[6] Ladies and gentlemen, Reed Epstein.

[7] Hello, Michael.

[8] Nice to see you, Mr. Caucus himself.

[9] Is that what I'm being called?

[10] That's what I saw.

[11] That's what I saw on the Internet.

[12] So, Reed, I want to set the scene for our listeners.

[13] It's 4 .35 p .m. here in Des Moines, and in about two and a half hours, Republicans across Iowa are going to caucus, and we are going to join them.

[14] But before we do that, we want you to do that.

[15] describe what that's actually going to look like.

[16] Because the last time we did this and we did it with you four years ago, we focused on the Democratic caucus because it was a competitive caucus.

[17] Donald Trump was the president at the time.

[18] So the Republican caucus wasn't really the sources of much interest.

[19] That's reversed this time around.

[20] We are most interested in the Republican caucus.

[21] So tell us what the Republican caucus is actually going to look like.

[22] So four years ago, when we went to a Democratic caucus, we went to a high school gym, and we watched as the supporters for each candidates group themselves in different parts of the gymnasium.

[23] And the candidates that didn't have enough people in their group, those people were released to go support someone else.

[24] And so there was a lot of jostling and persuasion and arm twisting and physical wooing in that room.

[25] There was yelling and speeches from across the room.

[26] we're not going to see any of that kind of stuff tonight.

[27] The Republican caucus is much simpler.

[28] They will come to these spaces.

[29] The one that we're going to go to is in a high school gym.

[30] And they will hear speeches from representatives of the different candidates.

[31] And then they'll mark on a piece of paper that they were handed when they came in, which candidate they support.

[32] And those pieces of paper will go in a box.

[33] And then at the end of the evening, the people who are running the precinct will take all the paper.

[34] and put them out on a table.

[35] And anybody who's there who wants to watch the counting, we can watch.

[36] So just in summary, the Republican caucus, it's less dramatic.

[37] It's less physical than the Democratic one.

[38] It's a little bit more resembling a traditional vote, but still very unique with an Iowa twist because it's not just you going into a private booth and voting.

[39] That's right.

[40] Okay.

[41] Talk to us before we head out about where the drama, where the suspense really is tonight, and where it is not?

[42] Well, where it is not is who's going to finish first?

[43] Everybody in Iowa, all the polls have landed on the position that Donald Trump is going to win the Iowa caucuses tonight.

[44] And what everyone is looking for is who finishes second?

[45] Is it Nikki Haley, who has made a late charge in Iowa?

[46] Or will it be Ron DeSantis, who for months has staked his entire campaign on doing well in Iowa?

[47] Enreed, we gave you the assignment to pick a caucus location for us to go to tonight.

[48] And I'm guessing that you picked a place that is central to the who comes into second place question.

[49] All right.

[50] We're going to go to a caucus at Van Meter High School.

[51] In Van Meter, Iowa, it's a suburb about a half hour west of downtown Des Moines.

[52] And it's a place that's on the edge of rural Iowa where Donald Trump has run very strong, but also is in commuting distance of Des Moines and should have a lot of professional class voters who are the type of people that Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley have been targeting.

[53] So Van Meter is the kind of suburb where voters are interested, we think, in a Trump alternative, therefore a good place to assess this question of Haley versus DeSantis.

[54] If they're not interested in a Trump alternative in a place like this, then those two are in real big trouble.

[55] Okay.

[56] So we should head off to Van Meter.

[57] Are you going to drive?

[58] I'm going to drive.

[59] Yeah.

[60] Do you have a rental car?

[61] I do, but I want you to drive.

[62] You're more practiced in the snow.

[63] Yeah, I'm very happy to drive.

[64] I'm very excited to have you be our guide.

[65] Let's go.

[66] I'm looking at my phone.

[67] It says minus two.

[68] It says that it's minus two degrees out and that it feels like minus 21.

[69] I mean, a lot has been made of how cold it is and that it is all merited.

[70] I think the cold has not been underhyped.

[71] I think the thing they don't talk about enough is the mechanics of the cold, and the way I experience is that basically the mucus in your nose freezes.

[72] I wanted to say that in the, the times this week that it's so cold that the boogers in your nose freeze and I was told that standards would not approve so maybe we can get that on the daily it's true you know do you have the directions directions are in okay let me turn some music on do you remember four years ago we listened to one day more from lay miss and we had a big sing -along but that was really about the accumulation of many many months of covering the Iowa apocuses.

[73] I think this year the mountain goat song is probably a little more appropriate.

[74] Why is it the right song for the Malin?

[75] You'll hear when you hear the lyrics.

[76] Continue on six thousand.

[77] I didn't.

[78] That's what happens with the directions.

[79] Well turn the directions off then.

[80] How do you hear the music?

[81] I'm gonna make it through this year if it kills me. That's right.

[82] I get it, I get it now.

[83] Well done.

[84] I prefer Taming Swift.

[85] We can play her next.

[86] Good song, really good song.

[87] We were pulling into the school.

[88] You park right here.

[89] You park right.

[90] All right, let's go.

[91] We're walking in.

[92] So we just described this gymnasium that we have now entered.

[93] So it looks like, you know, a million other high school gymnasiums.

[94] And on one end is the basketball scoreboard.

[95] On the other end is the track and field records for the high school.

[96] And in terms of the caucus, right?

[97] Like, this place has been a little bit remade for voting tonight.

[98] Right, there's a handful of tables set up.

[99] There's a table where the votes will be counted.

[100] They have some grocery bags to receive the votes in.

[101] One of them in Black Magic Marker has the word ballots written on it, and people are trickling in.

[102] Go ahead and sign right there for me, sir.

[103] Should we go talk to some voters?

[104] Sure.

[105] I think I have.

[106] Awesome.

[107] What is your caucus plan tonight?

[108] I really think that DeSantis can beat Joe Biden.

[109] I just, I like everything about them.

[110] I'm asking for people to consider my candidate tonight, former ambassador and future Madam President, Nikki Haley.

[111] It would be hard for me to consider Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis when they're so low in the polls.

[112] Who are you going to caucus?

[113] Probably Trump.

[114] Because Trump's going to win anyway.

[115] I agree with President Trump, yeah.

[116] That's who I'm here for, too.

[117] Donald Trump.

[118] I'm real happy with how the country used to be, and I think he's the strongest guy, not a Nicki fan.

[119] I do like Ron DeSantis a lot.

[120] Just don't feel like he can win.

[121] Anybody but Trump?

[122] Sorry.

[123] I haven't made up my mind yet.

[124] All right, well, we're going to start caucusing apparently.

[125] Thank you.

[126] All right, I think we're ready to get started here.

[127] We'll call up our first candidate speaker.

[128] Looks like maybe Ron DeSantis.

[129] Hello, my name is Jackie Abram, and I am caucusing for Ron DeSantis.

[130] Whether I like it or not, chaos follows Donald Trump.

[131] He will spend the next nine months in and out of court, and he will spill millions on legal fees.

[132] Ron, can, and will get the job done.

[133] I want a president who can bring people together and not tear them apart.

[134] I want someone that people will.

[135] follow.

[136] I want someone that wants to fight for the job.

[137] Shows up for the debates, right?

[138] Defends their record.

[139] Nikki has done that time and time again.

[140] Thank you.

[141] My name is Joel Aker.

[142] Trump just declared we have you there.

[143] And I am here to caucus court.

[144] Can you just explain what just happened?

[145] So while the speaker was urging caucus goers here to back Nikki Haley, the AP called the race for Donald Trump, the earliest it's ever called in Iowa caucus race.

[146] meaning the race is over in this room before it's even begun.

[147] Trump winning was really not a surprise.

[148] It's just extremely early, and the AP's got enough information to call.

[149] Amazing.

[150] But many farmers have not agreed.

[151] Okay, so at this point, please go ahead and do your votes.

[152] It's 752.

[153] People are taking their ballots, folding them up.

[154] I assume that sack was in.

[155] People are now placing their ballots in that paper bag, one by one by one by one.

[156] You didn't see them go like that?

[157] I thought I didn't.

[158] Tell us what you're doing?

[159] We are sorting the ballots and then we will count them.

[160] Scientifically dumped out the paper bag and now we're sorted them by name.

[161] Once we get them sorted by name and make sure the ballots are correct, you know, not two names on them.

[162] Yep.

[163] Then we'll count them up, then we'll double count them and then we'll have the totals.

[164] This is the DeSantis pile, that's a Trump pile, that's a Haley pile, and that's the not yet counted pile.

[165] Right in the middle, yeah.

[166] Counting.

[167] Got it.

[168] Thank you.

[169] Just sit around the sadist, dissatist?

[170] DeSathis?

[171] No. Coming in third place, with 64 votes, was Nicky Hayley.

[172] Coming in second place, or now second place, with 79 votes, was Ron DeSantis.

[173] Coming in first place with 85 votes was Donald Trump.

[174] So Donald Trump won the van meter spot or site caucus tonight.

[175] So thank you very much for everybody.

[176] Yeah.

[177] So Trump won here, but not by that much.

[178] Trump won here.

[179] It looks like he got a little over a third of the vote.

[180] Which may mean something?

[181] We'll get a better sense of, you know, really what, how this fits into the rest of the Iowa results in a couple hours when we have numbers from across the state.

[182] Right.

[183] All right.

[184] So, I think we're ready to go back and see what happened across the state.

[185] Yep.

[186] Let's go back to the hotel.

[187] We'll be right back.

[188] Shane, come on in.

[189] We have acquired a conference room for you.

[190] This is fantastic.

[191] Our own private.

[192] Another windowless room.

[193] In my time.

[194] Another windowless room.

[195] But this one, to talk about results.

[196] Yeah.

[197] You ready?

[198] I'm ready.

[199] Okay, we should just establish where we are in the night.

[200] It is 11 .15 p .m. local time, 12 .15 a .m. back in New York.

[201] And we now have all the results of the caucuses across the state.

[202] So talk us through the final numbers.

[203] First of all, I'm very pleased that it is only 1115 local time.

[204] I know.

[205] I know.

[206] very civilized.

[207] Earlier than we expected a few hours ago.

[208] And I think the reason we are here so early relatively is just because the results are pretty clear, which is that Donald Trump, he has 51 % of the vote right now.

[209] Ron DeSantis is in a very distant second at 21%.

[210] And Nikki Haley is in third place at 19%.

[211] And in fact, since then I began, the person in fourth, Vivek Ramoswamy, who was under 8 % dropped out and immediately endorsed Donald Trump.

[212] I think that 50 % almost undercounts the strength that Donald Trump is showing tonight.

[213] He's winning in virtually every county.

[214] There's one county at the moment that he's losing by a single vote.

[215] That means he's winning in cities.

[216] It means he's winning in suburbs.

[217] It means he's winning in rural areas.

[218] There is no place in the state of Iowa where he lost it years ago that he's losing tonight.

[219] And so this very much looks like the first step toward a potential reenom.

[220] for Donald Trump.

[221] There's not a lot of bright spots here for any of the campaigns if they want to actually beat him.

[222] I want to, for a second, talk about the call that was made in this race for Trump.

[223] It wasn't a surprise.

[224] What was a surprise was when the call was made.

[225] The call was made startlingly early.

[226] All of us in this room from the Daily were at a caucus where the call came before a single ballot had been cast.

[227] And I believe that was the case in many parts.

[228] of Iowa.

[229] What should we make of that?

[230] You know, it's because this is a caucus and not a traditional election.

[231] I think the Associated Press made the decision to call it before all the ballots were cast.

[232] Now, normally in an election, they wait until the polls are closed.

[233] Now, very much the polls were not closed here in Iowa.

[234] And after that happened, one of the first messages I got was from Ron DeSantis's communications team who said, election interference.

[235] And even in his speech later tonight.

[236] Ron DeSantis said, you know, they're through the kitchen sink at us here, even calling this race before our voters had a chance to cast their ballots.

[237] What specifically was so upsetting to them about this?

[238] I think they were upset that this is the state where he's banked his entire candidacy, that they have rallied people to the polls, that they've got them out in sub -freezing conditions to show up with these caucus sites.

[239] And again, this is not a regular election.

[240] You've got to stay.

[241] You've got to listen to speeches in some cases, and then you have to go and cast your ballot.

[242] So people could get discouraged, right?

[243] They might be there, but I said, hey, this has already been called by CNN or AP or the New York Times.

[244] I don't want us to sit here and wait and go through this process.

[245] I'm going to go home.

[246] And so I think they're real concerns about that.

[247] Right.

[248] And do the campaigns have a point here?

[249] I mean, I think that they do have a point that it's a concern.

[250] You know, I was certainly among those who was surprised, right?

[251] I was getting ready for later in the evening call and the networks and AP in very quick succession called the race.

[252] Right.

[253] Right.

[254] Well, we're not here to debate the media ethics of it, but I think we can both admit that it was strange.

[255] It might not have affected any of the outcome, any of the voting.

[256] There's no evidence in fact that it did, but it was unusual.

[257] So regardless of when this call was made, Trump, as you said, won authoritatively, one decisively, one very, very early.

[258] here.

[259] Pick your adverb.

[260] Pick your adverb.

[261] And we have talked a lot about how, because of his dominance in this race, this was really in Iowa a battle for a second place.

[262] But I think it's worth lingering on the nature of Trump's dominance and on the reality, Shane, that there was nothing inevitable about him winning so soundly here, right?

[263] I mean, or really winning at all.

[264] And thinking back four years to a candidate who lost the 2020 election, triggered a riot at the U .S. Capitol, was twice impeached and was seen as one of the most damaged, maybe the most damaged figure in the history of American politics.

[265] So what does the scale of his victory here tell us?

[266] I mean, I really do think it's a pretty remarkable resurrection, and I really think it's important to go back and think about where were we three years ago when January 6th happened, and when he was impeached and not just by Democrats, but by the most people to ever cross party lines, to impeach somebody, and he was ultimately acquitted by the Senate, by Senate Republicans, and that allowed him to run again.

[267] And really since then, he's been building power for this moment, acting like a party boss, even getting the Republican National Committee to change some of the rules.

[268] To make it easier for him to win these states, right?

[269] We've talked about this.

[270] To make it easier for him to win the coming states to ultimately become the nominee.

[271] And even the fact that it's so cold right now was expected in a lot of ways to work against him.

[272] When we were talking to the campaigns in recent days, they thought really cold, less people will turn out.

[273] And for months, the Trump people and others have said, the bigger the turnout, the better it is for Donald Trump.

[274] Right now we're looking at something like 110 ,000 people are going to a vote.

[275] A low turnout in the end.

[276] A very low turnout.

[277] They were talking about 220, 215, 200 ,000.

[278] So you're talking about the electorate was what they thought was going to be unfavorable to him, and he's still winning, running away.

[279] Right, because a low turnout Iowa caucus still turned out to be a landslide victory for Trump.

[280] It really raises the question is, is there any kind of turnout right now that isn't a landslide for Donald Trump?

[281] Talk to us just for a little bit about not just the geography of his victory.

[282] You already mentioned that he won basically almost every county in the state, but about the demographics of it and what that reveals about him and his opponents in this race.

[283] So the demographic data is a little bit less clear than just the vote totals, but what they show is a similar story, which is that Donald Trump was winning.

[284] He was winning among men.

[285] He was winning among women.

[286] He was winning among older people.

[287] He was doing well among middle -aged people.

[288] He was doing the strongest among voters who didn't attend college, which is not a surprise.

[289] Not a big surprise because we know that non -college educated voters have long been a part of Trump's base.

[290] Yes.

[291] But he was winning a pretty big share of college -educated Republicans, too.

[292] There's really not places where he's losing.

[293] Now, even his weakest parts demographically of the Republican Party, he's basically tied with his opponents where he's weakest.

[294] And so the challenge has been for Nikki Haley, yes, you have performed more strongly in highly educated suburban areas.

[295] And those areas, you're fighting Donald Trump to like a draw, right?

[296] And then you go out to the most rural areas, the places where maybe the most conservative parts of the state, the northwest, and dominated by Donald Trump, right?

[297] Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, they're not close to him in those areas.

[298] And so if this is what the map looks like here, what's it going to look like everywhere else?

[299] Well, Shane, to that point, let's turn to DeSantis and to this competition for second place, because it's kind of hard to know what to make of a second place DeSantis finish that is so distant from Trump's finish and that also is like second place by a hair, right, two percentage points.

[300] So what do we make of it?

[301] I mean, I think the problem for him is that it really doesn't resolve the question of second place.

[302] You have to remember that this is a state that he predicted he could win in.

[303] Win outright.

[304] Win outright.

[305] Trump.

[306] He is the most organized campaign in Iowa.

[307] He spent the most time here, and he's yet getting less than half the vote that Donald Trump has gotten.

[308] And so where does it leave his candidacy?

[309] It leaves him ahead of Nikki Haley, but so far behind Donald Trump that it is hard to see where he goes next.

[310] The next state in the calendar is New Hampshire.

[311] And it's been the early state he's pulled most weekly in.

[312] And so, and I think a notable decision, he is flying tonight not directly to New Hampshire, but directly to South Carolina, which is actually Nikki Haley's home state.

[313] And then...

[314] Which is not voting until...

[315] A month from now.

[316] Which is a long ways away.

[317] And then he's going to go up to New Hampshire.

[318] So he's not giving up on New Hampshire, but he's giving a pretty clear symbol that he's not planning on going anywhere.

[319] Right.

[320] And is stuck in a kind of muddled battle for second place with Nikki Hemp, Haley, who came in a close third, and in a lot of ways, her experience, right, Shane has been the exact opposite of DeSantis when we think about trajectory.

[321] He enters the race with huge expectations all the way back to a year ago.

[322] We've talked to you about this a lot.

[323] Somebody who would be, lots of people thought the real viable challenger to Trump, which hasn't really happened.

[324] Haley entered this race as somebody around which there were not a lot of expectations.

[325] She pulled in the single digits for months and months.

[326] So whereas DeSantis's experience culminating here is one of disappointment, is it right to see Haley's performance, even though it was a third place one, as something of a success?

[327] You know, I think it's a disappointment because of where she was recently, which is the last poll, the poll that people watched most closely.

[328] It's called the Iowa poll, and it showed her in second place.

[329] And so she didn't achieve that metric.

[330] And more importantly, by falling behind Ron DeSantis, she lost the argument that she wanted to make that he should get out of the race.

[331] She's trying to frame this up as it's her versus Trump.

[332] And Ron DeSantis is like, you know, I finished ahead of you here.

[333] Like, you can't quite push me out of the race yet.

[334] Right.

[335] And so is there any way in which she's correct knowing what's about to happen in the next couple of states?

[336] You know, I think the biggest winner here, you know, where we started, it's Trump, right?

[337] You continue to have this fight for second place.

[338] His goal is a divided Republican Party, because if there's one weak spot for him in the results from Iowa, is that while he won overwhelmingly compared to where his rivals were, he had about half the vote, which means about half the voters could conceivably have voted for somebody else if they all consolidated behind one person.

[339] Right.

[340] Look, for every Republican who wants to beat Donald Trump, the math is really clear in this race, which is you just need one opponent, that if you have two serious opponents running against him, there's virtually no chance of beating him for the nomination.

[341] And what the results tonight mean is that there's still going to be two.

[342] And that's why Nikki Haley's third place finish is a disappointment for her.

[343] She's close to Ronda Sanchez.

[344] This is, in some ways, a decent showing for her.

[345] But she had a chance here if she vaulted far ahead of him to push him out of the race entirely.

[346] But right now, this split result, is basically exactly what the Trump campaign would have hoped for in the last few days.

[347] Right.

[348] In that sense, it feels like this was a double victory in Iowa for Donald Trump.

[349] The first victory being 51 % of the vote, a landslide.

[350] The second victory being that he left his two main rivals with scraps.

[351] Yeah, and they're fighting over the scraps with each other, which is exactly what his team has been looking for throughout this race.

[352] And so when I think about this one in Iowa, I think it's not just a first step.

[353] It's a really big first step toward becoming the Republican nominee for the third consecutive election.

[354] Well, Shane, thank you very much.

[355] Thank you, Michael.

[356] We'll be right back.

[357] Here's what else you need to know today.

[358] Over the weekend, Houthi militants attempted to strike a U .S. warship and damaged a U .S. commercial ship in the Red Sea in a significant ratcheting up of their attacks on a crucial global shipping route.

[359] The latest round of attacks suggests that the U .S. and its allies are so far powerless to stop the Houthis.

[360] Last week, an American -led coalition carried out dozens of airstrikes against the Houthis inside Yemen, but those attacks appear to have only emboldened the group.

[361] The Houthis, who are backed by Iran, claimed that they're targeting Western ships in protest of Israel's war against Hamas.

[362] Today's episode was produced by Mary Wilson, Claire Tennis Getter, and Muj Sadie.

[363] It was edited by Rachel Quester, contains original music by Dan Powell, and was engineered by Chris Wood.

[364] Our theme music is by Jim Runberg and Ben Landfork of Wonderly.

[365] That's it for the daily.

[366] I'm Michael Bobarrow.

[367] See you tomorrow.