Ukraine Puts Putin’s Playbook to the Test

[0] From the New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi.

[1] This is the Daily.

[2] Today.

[3] To the outside world, Russia's relentless bombardment of Ukraine looks indiscriminate and improvised.

[4] In fact, it's part of a strategic playbook that Russia first devised 30 years ago in a different war.

[5] My colleague, Carlotta Gall, covered that war and explains why the Russian playbook used back.

[6] then is essential to understanding what happens next in Ukraine.

[7] It's Thursday, March 24th.

[8] Carlotta, you're in Kiev, and the last time I saw you, I had come to your apartment and brought you take -out pizzas.

[9] That's right.

[10] That was great.

[11] And then you had to rush back before the curfew.

[12] I did.

[13] So we were sitting at the table and talking.

[14] And I remember telling you that at the very beginning of the war, everybody, myself included, thought that the war would be quick, that the mighty Russian military would roll in and take the country in a week, or even a weekend.

[15] And I remember you telling me that you never believed that.

[16] And when I asked you why you gave me an answer, I kept thinking about.

[17] Do you remember what you said?

[18] I think I said that I thought the Ukrainians would fight, but I also, I think, said, reminds me of Chechnya, 30 years ago, nearly 30 years ago.

[19] And as you know, I covered the wars in Chechnya intensively.

[20] In fact, I was the foreign journalist who spent the most time down there in the early 90s.

[21] And I saw at first hand the Russians crushing a people who were trying to stand up and be independent.

[22] And of course, it was a formative experience for me as a young journalist, but it stuck with me ever since.

[23] And I have this sort of great feeling of recognition and familiarity already.

[24] The sounds are some of the same, the bombs that are dropping, but also this terrible feeling of dread of what this is going to turn out to be.

[25] Right.

[26] You said that the most important point of reference for understanding what's happening in Ukraine today is understanding what happened in Chechnya in the 1990s.

[27] So bring us to that time and place, Carlotta.

[28] What was the situation?

[29] It all began with the breakup of the Soviet Union, you know, the end of communism.

[30] And there was suddenly freedom, freedom of speech, movement, and so on.

[31] And a lot of the former republics of the Soviet Union became independent.

[32] And then this little territory, which was still part of Russian Federation, but it's its own region, Chechnya, declared independence.

[33] There are only one million.

[34] They're living in this mountainous area in the North Caucasus, Muslim.

[35] They'd been deported en masse by Stalin in the 40s.

[36] So they had a lot of grudges, a lot of sort of tribal solidarity.

[37] And they decided they wanted, if not independence, autonomy, some sort of self -determination.

[38] And so Chechnya had declared independence, and they started arming and training an army, and that's when I think the Russia and the Moscow authorities decided they had to act.

[39] And so they started preparing, looked like, to take back control.

[40] And as tensions rose, I went into Grozny, which was the capital of Chechnya, and, you know, booked a hotel.

[41] And so I was there in December 1994.

[42] just as it was all building up.

[43] We could feel there was an intensification.

[44] You could tell that the troops were getting closer and gathering, building up around the city.

[45] There were a report that there was going to be final assault.

[46] And then it came on New Year's Eve.

[47] Russian tanks entered Grozny Saturday and began firing.

[48] What happened was just so extraordinary.

[49] that no one could have foreseen.

[50] The Russians, you know, did their operation.

[51] They bombed from the air, and then they set off in columns, armored vehicles and tanks, into the city.

[52] Their intention, obviously, was to go to the presidential palace and unseat the then -president of the Chechen Republic and seize control.

[53] It's approaching midday in Grosny, and this is the very center of the city.

[54] The presidential palace is behind me. The Russians claim they, control it.

[55] It's obviously not the case.

[56] And they never made it.

[57] On the way in, especially one brigade coming from the north, they got ambushed by Chechen fighters who actually knew the city very well.

[58] Most of them were on foot or in small vehicles and they trapped and ambushed the Russian columns as they came in, bombing and firing these shoulder -held rocket launchers at the tanks.

[59] We hear that there are hundreds of Russian dead, and many, many tanks have been burned out.

[60] The Chechens burned the tanks, then they hit all the vehicles in between.

[61] They trap them if they try to get away down side streets and knock them out.

[62] There is what someone described as a tank graveyard.

[63] It was an absolute wipeout.

[64] Carlotta, why did the Russians fail that time in Chechnya?

[65] Why did they get stuck?

[66] Well, that was interesting because it seemed they were very ill. ill -prepared.

[67] Ever since World War II and defeating the Nazis, they had this great, huge army of tanks and massed troops, and they thought they could just walk in to Chechnya and take it over by morning.

[68] The president at the time, Boris Yeltsin, had intended to have a small victorious war to boost his ratings and to do, you know, show a bit of strength and clear up a problem in the southern regions.

[69] And of course, they were suddenly faced with this massive defeat.

[70] And then there were as a couple of weeks where everything seemed stalled.

[71] Everything was in a sort of stunned silence.

[72] But what in fact was happening was that the Russians were maneuvering around.

[73] And they started flanking the city, digging in with big guns and artillery.

[74] And I remember standing on the sort of northern reaches behind Russian lines then and when you know a few weeks later when they really started to basically bludgeon the city into submission the firepower once it was all in position was just unbelievable you just hear these boom boom with us these huge guns fired into the city, artillery and shells and aerial bombardment.

[75] Shells screamed into the city center at a rate of up to 10 a minute.

[76] They hit everything, I mean everything.

[77] The presidential palace, of course, was in the central square, was a main target.

[78] But there was the theater opposite, the cultural center, they all got smashed.

[79] And apartment buildings, all down the Central Avenue was a beautiful tree -lined Central Avenue, Every building got smashed.

[80] Weeks of continued bombing and shelling by the Russians have reduced much of this city to rubble.

[81] This is a lesson the Chechens won't easily forget.

[82] And as it came closer, the shelling, the Chechen fighters would pull back because they just couldn't sustain the lines under such heavy firepower.

[83] And so for months, we followed the march of this incredible onslaught of bombardment coming steadily towards the center from the north.

[84] What did Groszny look like after these massive bombardments?

[85] When you went around the city, walked around, what did you see?

[86] That was a lasting memory.

[87] I don't think I'll ever forget it.

[88] There's something horrendous about when a city is bombed like that.

[89] All the roads disappear because they're covered in debris.

[90] You end up climbing over things or driving through mud and dust.

[91] and rubble.

[92] And then everything goes really black, filthy black, from sort of, I suppose, the gumpowder and so on.

[93] So we'd go into the basements to see, and you'd find a lot of people were hiding down in the basements.

[94] And then the most gut -wrenching thing was just to see these apartment buildings shorn off.

[95] And so you'd look up and you'd see a couch hanging out the window or a picture on the wall but all skewed and things tumbling out of apartment blocks that was people's lives just cut in half and falling out the window.

[96] It was just that.

[97] I remember it was always really shocking.

[98] So how did this bombardment strategy work out for the Russians?

[99] Well, they took the city in the end.

[100] I mean, it was an almighty battle.

[101] It took about three months, but they did take it.

[102] They flattened it.

[103] And at some point, the, the, the, the, Chechen fighters pulled back into the countryside and up into the hills and the Russians established control over the city and then they started moving into the countryside to pursue the fighters.

[104] And the war went on in the countryside and up into the hills and into the other cities and went on for most of that year.

[105] And so by the end of 1995, the Russians had pretty well control of the whole territory.

[106] But the Chechens were still around and they were a guerrilla force and they were moving and mobile.

[107] The predicament for the Russians is then they'd pretty well taken every part of the territory, but then they had to hold it.

[108] Yeah, I mean, taking control of a territory is one thing, but holding it, running it is an entirely different set of challenges.

[109] Yeah, absolutely.

[110] And that was the most amazing moment for me to see in August of 96, so 18 months, months after the war began, the Chechens came storming out of the mountains and seized control of Grozny.

[111] And they surrounded and attacked every Russian position, and the Chechens blocked them, bombarded them, and they basically trapped the Russians in their own city and brought the Russian army to a standstill.

[112] It was extraordinary.

[113] And eventually they negotiated a withdrawal.

[114] and the Russians pulled out.

[115] So how does Russia respond?

[116] Well, Russia took time out to prepare, but they basically didn't give up the plan to return and take control of Chechnya.

[117] And we saw the rise of Vladimir Putin, who in 99 was deputy prime minister to Boris Yelsohn, and he started to get very involved, and he then made Chechnya a key.

[118] He aimed, I think, to establish power, to show his strength.

[119] He also brought a ruthlessness that went the whole way.

[120] He didn't stop, but didn't pull his punches.

[121] In Chechnya today, Russian rockets founded an oil refinery and ground trips advanced on the Republic's capital, Grosnay.

[122] He went back to war in Chechnya with a much better organized operational force.

[123] So he went in with a great deal of weaponry and forces to really...

[124] retake the territory.

[125] As Mr Putin settles into his new office here in the Kremlin, he's already made it plain that the tactics being employed in Chechnya, which of course such suffering to the civilians there, were entirely his own.

[126] But he brought another element, which introduced another chapter, as it were, to the Russian playbook, which is not just mass force, but also a political and even, I would say, an ideological approach to controlling the people.

[127] And Carlotta, what did this repression look like exactly in Chechnya, this new Putin chapter?

[128] Smoke rises from the ruins of a Chechen village, more evidence of the unselective nature of Russian bombing.

[129] It was as sinister, perhaps, or even more than the bludgeoning with artillery and bombs, because it's back to almost Stalinist repression.

[130] Where the Russian army is accused by human rights organizations of gross violations, following the the discovery of mass graves and the disappearance of dozens of Chechen men.

[131] Arrests, disappearances, executions, human rights violations.

[132] It became to the point where Chechens, who are pretty fearless, brave people who have a very strong culture and self -respect, became terrified to lift their heads, you know, or to go outside their houses.

[133] So it became a really, really frightening regime of suppression and brutality.

[134] And it's still like that.

[135] It's now rebuilt so that the city of Grosny now looks like a modern provincial town, but the people are shadows of their former selves.

[136] It's very, very sad.

[137] What you saw there, Carlotta, you know, the playbook and its evolution with Putin, I guess I'm thinking to the outside world, it must have looked improvised and indiscriminate and kind of erratic.

[138] But it sounds like what you're saying is that in a lot of ways it was really quite deliberate and intentional.

[139] And in its own cruel way, it was effective.

[140] It sounds like from what you're saying, this became Russia's template for taking over a place it wants to control.

[141] Yes, and I think it's a KGB template.

[142] I don't think Putin necessarily.

[143] necessarily invented it, but he employed it in sort of living memory and we saw how he did it.

[144] And I think it's not erratic.

[145] I think it's super calculated.

[146] It's ruthless, but it's effective from their point of view, which is have complete control and have no one challenging the power at the center.

[147] That's what the Chechen, you know, war was about for Moscow.

[148] They didn't want any domino effect, you know, or any spreading democracy or movements for self -determination or independence.

[149] And this is the playbook that we now seem to be seeing play out in Ukraine.

[150] We'll be right back.

[151] Carleta, you've been describing this Russian playbook for war and how it developed in Chechnya.

[152] And I guess I've been thinking about how much it does feel like this is what we've been seeing in Ukraine.

[153] So walk us through that.

[154] Where are you seeing it most vividly?

[155] Well, I think you have to say first, the burning tanks, that's the extraordinary scene that I remember so vividly, but we've seen a couple of weeks ago this column that came down from the border trying to drive straight into Kiev and to take the city by force.

[156] And the Ukrainians managed to ambush it on the way and stall it.

[157] And not in just one place, but in several places.

[158] And we've seen them, they're lying on the roads.

[159] They're burnt out.

[160] Some of them still have Russian soldiers lying dead around them.

[161] An unbelievable image, which we saw all those years ago in Chechnya, that it happened almost the same again today.

[162] And like in Chechnya, they took stock, they regrouped.

[163] There was a lull.

[164] then we understood they were moving out into the countryside, digging in.

[165] And then we saw this onslaught of artillery and firepower on the civilian areas of the city.

[166] Right.

[167] So these real kind of attacks on civilian targets that we've been seeing, right?

[168] The mall in Kiev, the apartment buildings on the outskirts, the theater in Mariupil, these are civilian targets.

[169] And it looks similar.

[170] Absolutely.

[171] And they, you know, you don't know what they're thinking, whether they think there's really important people inside or it's to terrify the population, but it's certainly, you know, a signature of the Putin, I would say, wars that he has waged, which is show the brute force to show who is in charge and to absolutely subjugate a people.

[172] And there's also a sign of the next level.

[173] Tonight, as Russian air attacks ravage more cities, Ukrainian and U .S. officials say Putin's playbook will likely increasingly include the systematic kidnapping of local leaders.

[174] There are several towns and cities that have been occupied by the Russians.

[175] Ukrainian authorities say at least four mayors have already been captured.

[176] The Russians grabbed Emily Topal's mayor, Ivan Federov.

[177] And they took the mayor of Mali Tupol.

[178] Who officials say was whisked out of City Hall, wearing a bag over his head.

[179] He actually returned, but we don't know quite what went on when they took him away.

[180] Ukraine's prosecutor general is accusing Russia of kidnapping a Ukrainian journalist who was covering the invasion.

[181] We've had some journalists who had to, one who, you know, disappeared and was detained.

[182] Some others who've had to escape because they were being on a list to being wanted.

[183] The two Associated Press Journalists, in a new harrowing account, they described their escape.

[184] The Russians were hunting us.

[185] They had a list of names, including ours, and they were closing in.

[186] And then we've also seen this amazing demonstrations that have been going on in the city of Harrison, which is occupied by the Russians.

[187] Camerasia.

[188] Camera's captured the moment Russian troops fired into a crowd of demonstrators in Kyrsson.

[189] And they've started to use tear gas and shoot at the protesters.

[190] So we're still in the early stages.

[191] There's some very familiar tactics going on.

[192] OK, so just as in Chechnya, the playbook evolves in the face of obstacles.

[193] But I guess we also really have to wrestle with the fact that Ukraine, of course, is not Chechnya.

[194] So I'm curious, how does this strategy play out in a different country with different circumstances and different people?

[195] Well, that's what we're all watching for now.

[196] And of course, it's only just playing out.

[197] but there's many differences.

[198] Ukraine is a huge country.

[199] It's 40 million.

[200] Chechnya was just one million.

[201] It's also an independent country, so it has its own army.

[202] They've mobilized the entire male population as well.

[203] The other thing that I think is really key for any guerrilla war, because that's probably what it's already evolving into.

[204] And that is having a border with a sympathetic country where they can get out for rest and recuperation, medical help, and then also they can bring in supplies.

[205] And it has the recognition, Western recognition, and that results in they're getting military aid and support from Western countries, the whole sanctions regime, but really the moral support as well.

[206] So that's huge, but they've also, I think, got Western advice on how to fight and how to defend the cities against the missiles and so on.

[207] So Chechnya had none of that.

[208] They were on their own, they were almost landlocked, and they never had international recognition for their cause.

[209] They had sympathy in the media and in the UN, but they never had this sort of support.

[210] So Ukraine has some advantages.

[211] And what's really interesting is the Ukrainians, they know intricately the Russian playbook.

[212] I mean, that's what really strikes me talking to the Ukrainians, is they have a deep understanding of Putin, and of Russian power.

[213] And they have this expression.

[214] We've got to break his teeth, break the teeth of Putin, to really show him, you know, where the power is and to force him out.

[215] And what does that look like right now in Ukraine, breaking the teeth?

[216] Well, that's what's very interesting.

[217] As we see the Russians start to move around the city of Kiev in circle and use this horrendous bludgeoning of.

[218] with artillery and air power.

[219] Instead of waiting, the Ukrainians are taking the fight out to the Russians.

[220] They've just launched the second counterattack in a week against some of the Russian positions around the city and in other cities they're doing it.

[221] And that is, it's a very important method of attack that you don't sit and wait for the onslaught.

[222] You go out and you sally out and you take the fight to the, meaning go on the offensive.

[223] Go on the offensive.

[224] Yeah, don't just guard your capital, but you actually have to go out and defeat the Russian forces as they're gathering around as they're trying to dig in and start their, you know, assault on the city.

[225] So that's what we've been seeing the last few days.

[226] It's not clear if the Ukrainians are being successful.

[227] They're claiming some success, but it's a tough fight, of course.

[228] It sounds like what the Chechens could never really accomplish and what the Ukrainians stand a better chance of accomplishing is really striking back against Russia and disrupting the playbook.

[229] I mean, kind of rewriting it.

[230] Certainly that's their ambition.

[231] I mean, that's what they're talking about and they're saying they'll do.

[232] And they think they understand that this is necessary.

[233] The only way to do this is to take the fight and defeat Putin and his playbook.

[234] It's very ambitious.

[235] I have no idea if they're going to succeed, but they've certainly got the desire and certainly on the ground now they're fighting, like mad.

[236] And some of these experts who have been watching these wars, as long as I have, are talking about this.

[237] This could be the moment that Putin has overreached and gets his comeuppance we'll have to see.

[238] I think it could still be weeks and months of fighting, though.

[239] But as you said, either way, win or lose, this strategy is going to have an extraordinary amount of misery in store for the Ukrainians.

[240] I mean, by design, it's patient, it's brutal, and it emphasizes destruction and repression.

[241] Yeah, it's a very dirty war as well.

[242] It's already brutal, as we've seen, you know, the casualties are horrendous on both sides already.

[243] And, you know, one thing I've learned watching Putin is he doesn't care how many people die.

[244] He doesn't care how much destruction.

[245] In fact, he doesn't mind destroying and then leaving it destroyed.

[246] Carlotta, that brings me to wondering about you and kind of how you're feeling right now in this moment.

[247] I mean, you're in Kiev, knowing what you do, based on your experience in Chechnya, you know what's coming for the people in Ukraine in some ways, because you've witnessed this Russian strategy firsthand.

[248] How does that feel?

[249] Yeah, you have this pit in your stomach the whole time, this sort of dread.

[250] The hardest thing is actually interviewing people here who won't leave the city because they want to stay at home and they don't want to go and they've got nowhere to go.

[251] And I find in my questioning, I'm slightly wanting to shake them and say, don't you realize, you know, it's going to get worse.

[252] So, yeah, it's a very, very grim feeling.

[253] You can admire the beauty of Kiev as you drive around, but, yeah, there's this lurking dread in the back that won't go away.

[254] It's like you're cursed with the knowledge of the past that's telling us something about the future.

[255] Maybe we should learn from our mistakes, shouldn't we?

[256] We should learn what's come before?

[257] I think the Ukrainians do know, you know, they've seen Chechnya.

[258] So I think what's amazing is they're convinced that they've got to fight and do it.

[259] Not only for them and their country, when they keep saying this to us, we're doing it for the rest of, you know, Eastern Europe and Europe and the free world.

[260] So they're very, very convinced, and that's extraordinary.

[261] I mean, really admirably extraordinary.

[262] Carlotta, thank you.

[263] My pleasure.

[264] Good story.

[265] We'll be right back.

[266] Here's what else you need to know today.

[267] On Wednesday, Madeline Albright, the first woman to serve as U .S. Secretary of State, died of cancer at age 84.

[268] Albright was named by President Bill Clinton as America's top diplomat in 1997.

[269] She dealt with the war in the former Yugoslavia and promoted NATO expansion into former Soviet bloc countries in Eastern Europe.

[270] A Czech refugee who fled the Nazi.

[271] and the communists, she had a moral clarity in a job that often favors real politic.

[272] In her last essay for the New York Times, she wrote that Vladimir Putin, whom she described as, quote, so cold as to be almost reptilian, was making a historic mistake in Ukraine.

[273] And the Biden administration made a formal determination that Russian troops have committed war crimes in Ukraine.

[274] Speaking on his way to Brussels for an emergency summit of NATO leaders, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said he would share the information with allies and partners.

[275] Meanwhile, NATO estimated that between 7 ,000 and 15 ,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in four weeks of war in Ukraine.

[276] A senior NATO official said the estimate was based on information from authorities in Ukraine and Russia and from intelligence gathered from public sources.

[277] By way of comparison, Russia says it lost a total of 11 ,000 service members in nearly a decade of fighting in its war in Chechnya.

[278] Today's episode was produced by Rob Zipko, Ossetia Tervedi, and Sidney Harper.

[279] It was edited by Patricia Willens and Lisa Chow, contains original music by Marian Lazzano, and was engineered by Chris Wood.

[280] Our theme music is by Jim Brumberg and Ben Lansfirk of Wonderly.

[281] That's it for the Daily.

[282] I'm Serena Tavernisi.

[283] See you tomorrow.