What Past State of the Union Speeches Tell Us About the Future

[0] From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro.

[1] This is The Daily.

[2] Today, in his first state of the union address since losing control of Congress, the president repeatedly spoke of bipartisan unity.

[3] But a history of these speeches suggests that it's everything else he said that will best predict how he actually governs.

[4] It's Wednesday, February 6th.

[5] Mark?

[6] Yep, Michael.

[7] Hey.

[8] How are you?

[9] Good.

[10] happy state of the union?

[11] Same to you.

[12] I really don't like this language.

[13] People use SOTU.

[14] Yeah, it's really awful.

[15] It's awful.

[16] It's kind of a dismal evening anyway, and calling it SOTU just sort of deepens the gloom that hangs over the whole thing.

[17] And yeah, and why is it so gloomy?

[18] Yeah, I don't know.

[19] I mean, you wouldn't believe it.

[20] There were like 50 people in the meeting today for SOTU planning.

[21] What do we say about that word?

[22] Okay.

[23] Okay.

[24] Everybody good?

[25] Mark, what's the significance of this particular state of the union in your mind?

[26] For President Trump, this is the first state of the union address he's delivered since his party was swept out of power in the midterm election last November.

[27] And so it's the first time he's facing a divided Congress, and the president is really forced to conduct a very public reset of his presidency to take account of a divided Washington.

[28] Mr. President, Mr. Speaker, It's not a unique situation by any stretch.

[29] Madam Speaker, Vice President Cheney, members of Congress, distinguished guests, and fellow citizens.

[30] And fellow Americans.

[31] All three of Mr. Trump's immediate predecessors face the same situation.

[32] Again, we are here in the sanctuary of democracy.

[33] The right of custom brings us together at a defining hour.

[34] With State of the Union addresses they gave after their party suffered defeats in midterm election.

[35] When decisions are hard, and courage is needed.

[36] I believe we can, and I believe we must.

[37] Each of them approached the situation in different ways, and in each case it provided a sort of a telling glimpse, a blueprint for how they were going to behave over the coming two years of their presidencies.

[38] And this is the business before us tonight.

[39] That's what the people who sent us here expect of us.

[40] Well, my fellow Americans, that's my agenda for America's future.

[41] So take us through the examples of these last, three presidents who have given these speeches after they lost a midterm election.

[42] How have they approached the speech?

[43] Well, let's start with Bill Clinton.

[44] Bill Clinton gave his State of the Union address in January 1995.

[45] Democrats lost the House.

[46] They lost the Senate.

[47] Three months after his party suffered a devastating defeat in the midterm elections.

[48] The Democratic chairman, David Wilhelm, said simply we got our butts kicked, not one incumbent Republican lost.

[49] The anti -Clinton Tide was fueled largely by frustration.

[50] Time magazine put him on the cover under the headline, the incredible shrinking president.

[51] Journalists even asked him whether he was still relevant anymore.

[52] And so this relatively young, untested president was dealt a very serious blow.

[53] Mr. Speaker, the president of the United States.

[54] And he really came into his State of the Union address, acknowledging that fact.

[55] If we agree on nothing else tonight, we must agree that the American people certainly voted for change in 1992 and in 1994.

[56] And as I look out at you, I know how some of you must have felt in 1992.

[57] Bill Clinton took a very contrite tone.

[58] In this effort, I am frank to say that I have made my mistakes.

[59] And I have learned again the importance of humility in all human endeavor.

[60] So this was a president who admitted that he had screwed up, and he pledged to learn from this experience.

[61] I think we all agree that we have to change the way the government works.

[62] Let's make it smaller, less costly, and smarter.

[63] Leaner, not meaner.

[64] And even more than that, he pledged to take seriously the message that this incoming Republican majority brought with it.

[65] He acknowledged that, to some extent, the era of big government was over.

[66] And we're working on getting rid of.

[67] unnecessary regulations and making them more sensible.

[68] The programs and regulations that have outlived their usefulness should go.

[69] Bill Crystal, a conservative commentator, commented after this speech was given that it was the most conservative state of the union address any Democratic president had ever delivered.

[70] This is a very, very great country, and our best days are still to come.

[71] Thank you, and God bless you all.

[72] So how much did Clinton's message at this state of the union, this conciliatory tone, these promises of bipartisanship and an acknowledgment of this conservative agenda?

[73] How much did it predict how he was going to govern for the next two years?

[74] So in fact, Bill Clinton did adjust.

[75] He did govern more as a centrist.

[76] He did pursue policies where he tried to find some common ground.

[77] And in the end, by moving toward his opponents, he wound up being very successful.

[78] And two years later, he was re -elected by a comfortable margin over his Republican opponent, Bob Dole.

[79] And Newt Gingrich, his antagonist, the man who sat behind him that night at the speech, wound up being the wounded figure because he had gone to war with President Clinton over a government shutdown, and he ended up shouldering the blame, not Clinton.

[80] In other words, the State of the Union actually showed that this was a president who was learning on the job, who was willing to adjust course, and came out of it victorious.

[81] Washington turned upside down.

[82] The Democrats in, Rums felled out.

[83] Tonight on Washington Week.

[84] If you look at race by race, it was close.

[85] The cumulative effect, however, was not too close.

[86] It was a thomping.

[87] Even the president could not find a silver lining this time.

[88] Twelve years later, Bill Clinton's successor, George W. Bush, found himself in a very similar situation.

[89] Republicans licked their wounds.

[90] Don Rumsfeld lost his job.

[91] The Iraq war has gone very badly.

[92] He's been widely condemned for his handling of Hurricane Katrina.

[93] And in the midterm elections of 2006, the voters deliver a brutal message.

[94] Gwen, I think you could say the driving force was that old refrain.

[95] I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore.

[96] They send Congress back into the control of the Democrats.

[97] And President Bush turns up for his State of the Union address.

[98] the President of the United States.

[99] Facing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

[100] And tonight I have the high privilege and distinct honor of my own as the first president to begin the State of the Union message with these words, Madam Speaker.

[101] He's extremely gracious to her.

[102] He congratulates her.

[103] He refers to her father, who is a Democratic lawmaker from Baltimore, and the pride he would have felt if he had seen his daughter, presiding in the chamber that night.

[104] But nothing could compare with the sight of his only daughter, Nancy.

[105] And then he delivers a speech.

[106] Some in this chamber are new to the House and the Senate, and I congratulate the Democrat majority.

[107] Where he takes account of the bitterness that Iraq has caused and the opposition is stirred up.

[108] With the distance of time, we find ourselves debating the causes of conflict in the course we have followed.

[109] Not just among Democrats, but among members of his own party.

[110] I've spoken with many of you, person.

[111] I respect you and the arguments you've made.

[112] We went into this largely united in our assumptions and in our convictions.

[113] And whatever you voted for, you did not vote for failure.

[114] And he in effect pleads for more time.

[115] He says that in this difficult situation, he and his military advisors have decided on a troop surge.

[116] So we're deploying reinforcements of more than 20 ,000 additional soldiers and Marines to Iraq.

[117] And he basically asks, for time to get this war right.

[118] Our country is pursuing a new strategy in Iraq, and I ask you to give it a chance to work.

[119] And I ask you to support our troops in the field and those on their way.

[120] So President Bush uses the speech to acknowledge the unhappiness in the country.

[121] But unlike Clinton, after the midterms, he doesn't change his approach.

[122] In fact, he leans into it and doubles down on it when it comes to the war in Iraq.

[123] Our cause in the world is right.

[124] And tonight, that cause goes on.

[125] God bless.

[126] And he also sticks to it afterwards.

[127] So this speech is a very accurate blueprint for what the rest of the Bush presidency looks like.

[128] He does send the troops.

[129] They wind up having more success than many of the critics expected.

[130] And this becomes the way the United States winds down the war in Iraq.

[131] He really lays out the end game in Iraq in this state of the Union address.

[132] It actually proves to be a very, very accurate predictor of how things play out.

[133] Right now, we're looking at a live picture of the U .S. Capitol, where the Republicans will seize control of the House of Representatives.