418. What Will College Look Like in the Fall (and Beyond)?

[0] Hey there, Stephen Dovner.

[1] We're launching a new spin -off podcast called No Stupid Questions.

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[3] Angela Duckworth and I feed each other questions about any and everything, including which long -standing social conventions may be obliterated by COVID -19.

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[10] Hello, Freakonomics Radio.

[11] My name is Matt.

[12] My name is Alyssa.

[13] It's Danielle Ahmed.

[14] Dahlniger.

[15] Hi, Stephen.

[16] It's also Stephen.

[17] We recently asked to hear from college students and faculty.

[18] I'm an MIT student living in Boston, Massachusetts.

[19] I'm a graduating senior at the University of Southern California.

[20] Yale College.

[21] Pasadena City College.

[22] I am a current MD PhD student at Duke University.

[23] I am recently promoted to a...

[24] the rank of associate professor with tenure?

[25] Who?

[26] I'm going to be rising junior at Bowdoin College in the fall, if we have a fall.

[27] We asked you to send us your questions about college in the age of COVID -19, and you had a lot of questions.

[28] If professors are switching between remote teaching and in -person classes, are students getting the education they paid for?

[29] Given that international students usually pay full tuition, how are universities going to cope with that financial stress?

[30] Should universities consider reducing tuition to incentivize students to take online classes instead of a gap semester?

[31] There were a lot of questions about the future of college generally.

[32] I know many small colleges are already cash -strapped.

[33] Do you think COVID could signal the end for small colleges in America?

[34] How might we take this as an opportunity to rebuild an educational system that is equitable, instead of making repairs to one that is designed for a specific type of student to succeed?

[35] Today on Freakonomics Radio, three college presidents try to answer these questions, even as the only thing they can be certain of is how much uncertainty they're facing.

[36] It's a very interesting question.

[37] Bathrooms are a real issue.

[38] You know, that's weird.

[39] I mean, that's psychologically weird.

[40] That's coming up right after this.

[41] From Stitcher and Dubner Productions, this is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything.

[42] Same.

[43] Here's your host, Stephen Dovner.

[44] What have your days been like lately since COVID visited our shores?

[45] Since we shuttered the physical presence of our campus, I have been glued to a chair, which I'm sitting in now, normally staring at a Zoom screen, which is frighteningly tiring to do.

[46] That is Robert Brown.

[47] I'm the president of Boston University.

[48] Boston University is one of the larger private.

[49] research universities in the U .S. with just over 35 ,000 students, roughly 50 -50 undergraduate and graduate students.

[50] It's essentially a small city with all the density and interaction that makes cities and universities so attractive in normal times.

[51] But these are not normal times.

[52] No, no, especially a major research university and a university that thrives on the residential academic community.

[53] Those two ingredients.

[54] which are essential to who we are, are not pandemic proof.

[55] College executives everywhere, just like executives at all institutions and firms, public and private, have spent the past couple months trying to wrap their minds around the new COVID -19 reality and come up with plans to adapt.

[56] I heard about one college president who had 46 different plans, depending on how the pandemic played out.

[57] Robert Brown didn't have 46 plans, but he did have several.

[58] one of them called for delaying the start of BU's academic year until early 2021.

[59] I think I was the first person to say that it was potentially possible we wouldn't operate in the fall.

[60] And I have never gotten that much press in my life.

[61] Did you like that press or not so much?

[62] Well, we had to walk back headlines, right?

[63] Because there were headlines out there.

[64] You know how the business works.

[65] That went all the way to BU not open in the fall.

[66] And this, we should say, is happening.

[67] when incoming freshmen are still deciding where to go, right?

[68] Yes, it was, that was, yeah, it was fun.

[69] That was fun.

[70] The California State University system just announced that they won't physically open in the fall, that all classes will be online.

[71] But as of this recording, Boston University is planning to open in the fall, as are many universities.

[72] Well, emphasis on the planning to open.

[73] The job now is to figure out exactly what opening might look like.

[74] So one of the questions I think that institutions are struggling with or making plans around is what their flexibility in their offering models are going to be in the fall.

[75] Offering models, meaning how they deliver instruction.

[76] So one of the things we've already announced for 40 of our graduate professional programs is that in the fall, they will be offered in a concurrent form.

[77] They'll be offered in person and simultaneously in a remote learning environment.

[78] BU, like most schools, already converted to remote learning for the second half of the spring semester.

[79] So now, why would you do that?

[80] He means why would they offer all instruction both in person and remotely?

[81] It's a lot of logistics.

[82] It's complicated for the faculty.

[83] There's a lot of other support we have to put in place.

[84] But there are also a lot of reasons why this flexibility, may be necessary.

[85] There are a variety of different cohorts in any college population, each with different potential concerns and barriers.

[86] One are international students who decide they don't want to come back.

[87] Roughly one in four students at BU is an international student.

[88] International students who cannot get back because of an airline or a visa.

[89] They could be domestic students who don't want to come to Boston right then.

[90] And there could be students that we have asked who, quarantine or isolate.

[91] And so everything we're doing is trying to create an environment that has the flexibility from the academic environment that you can move seamlessly as possible between the in -person residential and a remote environment.

[92] So let's take an international student that's a sophomore.

[93] And the student says, I don't feel comfortable coming to Boston in the fall.

[94] But I don't want to give up my Boston University degree, right?

[95] And I'd like to keep making progress.

[96] They could register with us and be part of the classes, as they have been in the last six weeks, remotely, and then come back when they're ready to come back.

[97] Well, the way we're approaching it is that we now have these three teaching and learning modalities.

[98] That is Michael Crow.

[99] I'm president of Arizona State University.

[100] Arizona State is also a large research institution, much larger than Boston University, and it's a public university, not private.

[101] It offers three primary modes of enrollment.

[102] So we have ASU full immersion on -campus technology enhanced.

[103] That is basically the traditional on -campus model.

[104] We have ASU full immersion synchronous technology enhanced.

[105] Full immersion synchronous meaning essentially live video instruction, what most people are calling remote instruction.

[106] An ASU digital immersion online technology enhanced.

[107] Whereas online or asynchronous instruction means recorded lectures and lessons that students can watch on their own schedule.

[108] What that means then is when we figure out exactly what the health and safety instructions are, and we figure out exactly where we're going, and we're planning right now to be, you know, full immersion for the fall semester.

[109] Meaning you will have a full in -person cohort of students, yes?

[110] Well, we don't know how that will work out, but we're approaching it from the perspective that we need to be able to be responsive to the student in whatever modality we, have to operate under.

[111] And so right now we have many different scenarios, but the most important thing is we have tools and we have assets so that learning doesn't have to be interrupted.

[112] And so if you're 17 or 18 years old and you're just going to college, I mean, imagine this level of disruption.

[113] You don't even know what it is.

[114] You don't even know what it means.

[115] And so what we're interested in doing is making certain that we are available, ready, and engaging with learners no matter what the circumstances are.

[116] And we know how to do that.

[117] The reason ASU knows how to do that is because has for years advocated using technology, not only to make education more flexible, but more accessible, especially to students from low -income families.

[118] This technology push has not gone unnoticed or unrewarded.

[119] Arizona State has been named Most Innovative School by U .S. News and World Report for the past six years.

[120] It's also been named one of the most sustainable universities in the world, and its student population has exploded.

[121] We have about 75 ,000.

[122] thousand students in the two full immersion modalities and about 65 ,000 students in the digital immersion modality.

[123] So let's say a college president who's invested very little money or thought in remote learning until COVID, the answer from you might be, well, you should have invested a lot of money in thought in doing it because there's obviously a big ROI in getting a head start, yes?

[124] Yes, I mean, the answer is yes, but I mean, it would be a little bit like a moment like my dad used to have with me when something would happen and he'd say, do I have your attention now?

[125] So what do you know from years past about remote learning, online learning, that other schools are about to learn?

[126] What we know is that it is very empowering once you accept it.

[127] So it's sort of like facing the fact that the book is not the only technology for universities to be successful around and that once you accept that there's other things beyond the book, it's a lot easier.

[128] If I've been accepted as a freshman at ASU for an on -campus fully immersive, you know, aided by technology experience, and I decide, or maybe my parents decide, and maybe I've got an underlying health condition, or maybe I'm coming from across the country or across the world, that no, no, no, I can't do that.

[129] So I switch.

[130] Can I switch to a fully online enrollment instead?

[131] How does that work?

[132] And what happens to the costs as well?

[133] So it is most likely that we will operate in all three modalities at the same time for exactly the reasons that you have articulated.

[134] So let's say you're fully admitted, but travel from your country is delayed, or you're fully admitted and, you know, you're immunocompromised and, you know, mom's not very interested in you coming out from New Jersey all the way to Arizona.

[135] So in the case of those students, then you'll be able to be fully immersed at ASU through our synchronous technology.

[136] Let's say that that doesn't work for you.

[137] Well, then we have our asynchronous online optionality.

[138] And so the costs for online are different than the costs for immersion.

[139] The costs for on -campus immersion and synchronous immersion are, right now, we've not worked that all out.

[140] They're very similar because our instructional costs are the same and our interaction costs are the same, but some of the on -campus costs would not be the same.

[141] So we'd probably have three different cost bases.

[142] So what does that start to do to you?

[143] bottom line, assuming, let's say, some significant fraction, 20 to 50 percent of the people opt for a different modality that you can charge less for.

[144] How does that start to work for you?

[145] It's complicated, very complicated.

[146] And so our financial numbers are guesses right now.

[147] According to one recent survey, roughly one in six students who made a tuition deposit no longer plans to attend a four -year college full -time.

[148] They're thinking about a gap year, or some other option.

[149] This was a pretty common theme among our listeners.

[150] Hi, Stephen.

[151] I am a first -year student at Walsley College, but I've been back at home in Beijing, China, since March.

[152] So, to be completely honest, I have not been adjusting well to remote learning.

[153] So as soon as there was talk of another semester online, I was looking for alternatives.

[154] I'm a rising junior studying geosciences at Eckerd College, which is a small liberal art school in Florida.

[155] Like many other private schools, it is somewhat expensive.

[156] If the college chose or was forced to conduct fall semester exclusively online, I know many of my peers would take a semester off or take community college courses for a semester rather than pay tens of thousands of dollars for online school.

[157] I'm currently unemployed, used to work in consulting.

[158] but left my job about two weeks ago, not related to coronavirus, but I just wanted to break off before I start graduate school at the University of Chicago, and I'm becoming increasingly concerned that that program will be online.

[159] And I think, you know, removing the human element of that, of us being in a room together with my classmates, with the professor, is really going to be difficult and a big disadvantage if it comes to that.

[160] And, You know, I have to ask myself, do I really want to start this program during this time?

[161] I asked Michael Crowe what happens to ASU's finances if a significant chunk of students opt for a gap year or deferral.

[162] You know, I don't know how many kids want to do a gap year in their basement.

[163] And so, you know, we're thinking that if for whatever reason the student feels uncomfortable or the family feels uncomfortable, then we're going to say, well, here are other options that we have for you to continue learning.

[164] And what about the loss of international students?

[165] What are you expecting there?

[166] Well, we're the number one or two public university for international students in the U .S., and so we could lose anywhere from hundreds to thousands of international students.

[167] But at the same time, we're also looking to make certain that if a student can't start the fall semester, they start in sync, and then they come in the spring.

[168] And I assume most international students pay full fare, yes?

[169] Most international students actually at all American universities pay premium tuition.

[170] Okay, so what is premium at ASU for an international student?

[171] Low 30s.

[172] Okay, and what about out -of -state tuition?

[173] Out -of -state tuition is less, but it's more than double our in -state tuition.

[174] We have lots of students from everywhere, all 50 states.

[175] So there, you know, the same thing.

[176] You know, it's too early to tell what mobility will be like.

[177] It's too early to tell what family's psychology will be like.

[178] What we do know is that, you know, when we said last week that we were planning to be fully immersed, on campus for the fall, meaning, you know, we didn't say for certain.

[179] We just said that's our plan.

[180] We had a thousand students finalized their deposits in one day.

[181] And so what that tells us is that people want to go to college.

[182] They want their life to move forward, if at all possible.

[183] Of course, college students want their lives to move forward.

[184] We all want that.

[185] But everything depends on the virus and the efforts to fight it.

[186] That, in turn, will greatly influence the future of colleges and universities, many of which were under severe financial strain before COVID -19.

[187] But the pandemic accentuates a basic and unavoidable fact of the university industry.

[188] Most universities are highly tuition and fee dependent, so that impacts the finances pretty dramatically.

[189] That is Sylvia Burwell.

[190] She is president of American University in Washington, D .C. Right now, the estimates in higher education is that there could be up to about 20 % in terms of enrollment drop.

[191] And so universities will have to work to figure out how they can manage through that kind of impact.

[192] American University is a private school, much smaller than Boston University, but not tiny.

[193] It's got about 8 ,000 undergraduates and another 6 ,000 grad students.

[194] I happen to have a child who just finished his freshman year at American, the last couple months remotely, from home in New York.

[195] But that's not why I wanted to include Sylvia Burwell in this look at what happens to colleges this fall.

[196] I wanted to include her because, unlike many college presidents, she has spent most of her career outside of academia.

[197] That's correct.

[198] I was the Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Obama.

[199] and I was also his director of the Office of Management and Budget.

[200] So when Burwell looks at a college campus, she sees it less as a world apart from society and more like an extension with all the attendant inequities.

[201] So I think the question of first generation students and students who are socioeconomically more challenged is a broader question in our society right now.

[202] And that is the disparities that have been laid bare by COVID -19.

[203] And those disparities are both economic, and those are also health disparities, which existed before, and COVID -19 exacerbates and bears down upon.

[204] And in terms of meeting the needs, the federal government does a small portion, and the rest of the needs are met by the university.

[205] I think there are going to be financial challenges that, are going to be extremely difficult for those students.

[206] When you think about some of those students that are work study students, one of the things that we tried to do was be able to continue for our students who were working that as many as possible could telework to make sure that we work with the federal government on how those monies are counted or not counted against their ability to get aid.

[207] And so I think there are many steps that we all need to take.

[208] And what happens if I'm, let's say I'm an incoming freshman, but my financial aid offer was, you know, relatively small, $5 ,000 to $10 ,000, let's say.

[209] And now I write to you and say, President Burwell, I appreciate the package that you put together, but one of my parents or both of my parents have lost a job and we're simply not able to meet this.

[210] What can you do in a case like that?

[211] In a case like that, your financial circumstances have changed.

[212] And so you should, you should, let us know.

[213] We want to know because we know that these are challenging and difficult times.

[214] We are going to be stretching in many ways to try and do everything we can for those who have changed financial circumstances.

[215] Let's talk about finances overall.

[216] I've seen where you said that American University lost about 27 million in revenue and increased expenses because of COVID -19, which is about five times as much as the university is being allocated under the CARES Act.

[217] So a $27 million tab, can you just help us understand, break that down?

[218] Where is that money being spent?

[219] So the big majority of that money actually was spent on refunds to our students for their housing and dining.

[220] In terms of supporting the online learning, that actually took money and cost.

[221] we helped and supported our students who were not able to financially get home.

[222] If there were students like that, we helped with that.

[223] Well, we have some scenarios with losses in the hundreds of millions, but we don't know.

[224] We call these the 100 -foot waves.

[225] Michael Crowe, again, from Arizona State University.

[226] So the imagery that we put out, I sent this out to my board chair a few weeks ago.

[227] I sent a picture of a battleship in heavy seas, 40 -foot waves, the entire front end of this battle.

[228] battleship is under the wave, and I said, this is us today, 40 -foot waves, and we're doing okay.

[229] We're fully functional delivering our services, and I said, but there's two worries I need to let you know about.

[230] One is there are now rogue hundred -foot waves out there, you know, a loss of international students, a loss of out -of -state student revenue, a decrease in the investment from the state legislature.

[231] There's also, you know, a possible tsunami out there that none of us can understand or predict.

[232] You know, if any other significant disruption was to occur in the middle of this disruption, then, you know, the outcomes are very, very unknown at that point.

[233] So we're doing everything we can to enhance our technological capability so that we can continue to offer service regardless.

[234] I understand ASU is set to receive $63 .5 million from the CARES Act, which is the most money of any university in the U .S. I understand the criteria are size of enrollment and share of Pell Grant recipients.

[235] Was there any other criteria that helped you get that big a portion?

[236] We're both very large, and I think we have more Pell eligible students than the entire Ivy League combined.

[237] So yes, we have a large number.

[238] And so half of those dollars, give or take, are going to be to help students to stay students and to be successful.

[239] And the rest is going to go to helping the university to deliver the services.

[240] The first half is easy.

[241] The second half, we've got to think through what's the best way to invest those resources.

[242] Do you foresee any significant...

[243] By the way, which I should say that we're very thankful for to the citizens of the country and the Congress for making those resources.

[244] Yes, thank you.

[245] Right.

[246] You're welcome.

[247] So do you foresee any significant faculty or staff layoffs or furloughs?

[248] Well, if you're going to plan on being open like us, we don't see furlough as a pathway.

[249] One option may be salary reductions, but furloughs will not be on that list because we've got to deliver the service.

[250] So if we back away from delivering the services, then, you know, how's that going to work?

[251] Yeah.

[252] Have you taken a cut yet, personally?

[253] Not yet.

[254] We haven't done anything until the end of the semester, and then we're going to look at where we are.

[255] During the 2009 recession, I did take a substantial salary reduction, the largest of anyone within the institution, as should be the case.

[256] And if we do that again, we'll follow it the same way.

[257] So you're a big school in athletics are a relatively significant part of the operation there.

[258] I understand you're in the neighborhood of $100 million in revenue a year?

[259] $1 .15 to $1 .20 these days.

[260] Gotcha.

[261] And that produces a surplus, or no?

[262] We're a break -even institution, which is hard enough to get to by itself.

[263] Right.

[264] So there are some schools where college football and basketball are really, you know, that's the golden goose.

[265] I could imagine this is going to be a very difficult year, probably cancellation of the football season, maybe basketball.

[266] Have you been talking to your peers at universities that depend on that and what's happening there?

[267] Yeah, we're in the PAC -12 conference with Stanford and Berkeley and Washington and USC schools like that.

[268] And so we're looking at every possible route, and it is a highly, highly complicated thing.

[269] Most of our discretionary revenue for athletics is generated around football and men's basketball.

[270] And so, you know, perhaps the football season could be delayed.

[271] You know, maybe they play spring football.

[272] I know there's all kinds of, you know, we could never do that, we could never do this.

[273] And I'm like, well, then what do you recommend?

[274] Nearly all the decisions being considered by people like Michael Crow, Sylvia Burwell, and Robert Brown are a delicate balance between health and safety on the one hand and on the other dollars.

[275] About 53 % of all of our revenues come from tuition and fees, even as a large research university, because we're just very large.

[276] That's Brown again from Boston University.

[277] They were allocated just $15 million under the CARES Act.

[278] On paper, BU looks like it's got a massive cushion, a $2 .3 billion endowment.

[279] Although one of the things I would just throw out there is that people always use the size of an endowment as a metric of wealth, but as an endowment per student, we're like 160th on the list of private institutions.

[280] So I know you recently announced that BU would meet the full financial need of all domestic students who qualify for financial aid, and that was planning to start this fall 2020.

[281] Is that still going to happen?

[282] Oh, yeah.

[283] Yes, yes.

[284] It's a very large increase in our need -based financial aid.

[285] So talk about the economics of that.

[286] How do you make that happen even when I suspect that you're going to take a number of financial hits over the coming year or two?

[287] Well, the way we made that happen is two things.

[288] One is we just ended a very successful capital campaign.

[289] And that increased substantially the amount of financial aid we had to give our undergraduate students.

[290] But on the other side, the university and our board of trustees, after a long discussion, decided to bring down the reserves.

[291] And over the next four years, it will be about a $60 million annual increase in financial aid.

[292] Now, I know that you've been partnering with EdX to launch an online MBA for this coming fall.

[293] That's right.

[294] I'd be really curious to know what that was looking like before COVID and what it's looking like now.

[295] It's very interesting question.

[296] And I would use the word you just use.

[297] That is an online program.

[298] It's really for, I wouldn't say, alternative learners, but those that are going to be taking the program asynchronously.

[299] So how many were you expecting to be enrolled in the online MBA and how many do you have enrolled as of now?

[300] We were looking for, and this was a self -imposed cap at the beginning, 100 students.

[301] And now I'm not going to say exactly how many of enroll, but it's going to be multiples of that.

[302] And that's because of demand.

[303] Boston University's online MBA tuition is $24 ,000 total.

[304] The tuition for the on -campus MBA is roughly $56 ,000 per year, and it's a two -year program.

[305] Room and Board puts the total bill at roughly $80 ,000 per year.

[306] Granted, the on -campus program is more interactive and more personalized, but you could certainly see, especially now, how the online version may be a very appealing substitute.

[307] Will COVID -19 increase the appeal of online learning in the long run?

[308] For years, some top -tier universities like MIT have been offering their courses online for free, but there hasn't been all that much uptake.

[309] Will COVID -19 create a new equilibrium for online learning?

[310] It's fascinating question because it's not, it's hard to answer right now before we just figure out what the new equilibrium is.

[311] You know, we're in the middle of the largest perturbation that has hit higher education in memory.

[312] the online MBA was created with not COVID in mind.

[313] Now there is a cadre of people who would have normally gone to residential programs who are considering that option.

[314] I mean, it's going to take data over time because we still have a large number of applications for our fall MBA program.

[315] So will your in -person fall MBA program be as full this year as it was last year?

[316] That's hard to say.

[317] At this point, it's on track.

[318] How many in -person MBA students do you have in a typical year?

[319] Well, we actually have two different programs.

[320] We have what I'd call traditional residential program and a part -time MBA program.

[321] And the full -time MBA program, it's in what I'd say, the 100, 125 range.

[322] So theoretically, though, even if, let's say half, which would be a huge number of the people who would be enrolled in either the residential full -time program or the part -time, even if half, even if half, you know, half of them decide to not come, and some of them or a bunch of other people are flooding the online MBA, even though it's only 24K in your pocket versus 56.

[323] Theoretically, you can make up in volume what you might lose in price, yes?

[324] Theoretically.

[325] I mean, theoretically, you could come out ahead.

[326] At least this portion of your massive, difficult conversion to post -pandemic university, may be not so unsuccessful, right?

[327] That's possible, right?

[328] The interesting thing is just a confluence of the fact that we're launching the online MBA program and then we had the pandemic, right?

[329] I don't want to pretend this was a strategy, but...

[330] But it does make you look pretty smart, you have to say.

[331] Sometimes luck is a good part of looking smart.

[332] I know in 2017 that BU acquired Wheelock College, some estimates are calling for upward of 10 to 20 percent of years, U .S. colleges, mostly small, to go out of business soon, not just COVID, but COVID accelerated.

[333] So I'm curious, are you on the lookout for more acquisition?

[334] Will we see a lot more consolidation, et cetera?

[335] Well, I think that this is going to accelerate the issues.

[336] I'm associated with the higher education group that's going to advise the governor about reopening.

[337] And I think there are going to be discussions about economies of scale and people merging.

[338] So basically, it sounds as though BU was and is in pretty good shape financially, but pandemic.

[339] So what now?

[340] What's your financial forecast for the next, you know, one to three years?

[341] I don't want to sound polyanish about this.

[342] But the most important thing is that we know the quality of the undergraduate program that we've had.

[343] And the value of that, the street values, of that hadn't changed at all.

[344] In fact, I think this is conjecture, but I talked to enough parents.

[345] Having your high school seniors sitting at home taking the classes convinces you that's not where you want them next year.

[346] Quick, give me the checkbook.

[347] I have to write the deposit right now.

[348] Where we are is we're ending what I would call deposit season, which is where in all of our programs, people professed are going to come.

[349] And so our deposit season overall, across all our programs, is going well.

[350] Our numbers are better than last year in terms of deposits.

[351] But I can't imagine that there won't be a little bit more deposit surrender this year than in a typical year because...

[352] I totally believe that.

[353] Yeah.

[354] So did you admit more knowing that, knowing that there are going to be some deposits that you guys are just going to essentially bank?

[355] It's interesting.

[356] On the undergraduate side, we did try to increase the...

[357] the number of deposits relative to the class size we wanted, but not by huge amounts.

[358] Because, you know, one of the things that's key to all of this is as a residential campus is housing.

[359] You know, there's an upper bound where I can make the guarantees I want to make the parents about the housing situation for their children.

[360] Now, we're lucky we're in an urban area.

[361] That gives us a little bit of flexibility because there are other ways to house people.

[362] Yeah, so let's talk about that.

[363] talking in mid -May, let's talk about what you think your campus looks like in the fall, where students will live?

[364] Will all dorm rooms be singles now?

[365] How much do you have to expand into non -traditional dorm housing and so on?

[366] Let me start with what I think is the biggest topic for universities in the fall, and that's testing.

[367] Because the answers to these questions really depend on testing protocol.

[368] And so if we can figure out on operating model where people feel safe, I think the students are going to come back.

[369] All of our numbers are trending very well.

[370] The question is delivering that in the fall.

[371] Despite the numbers trending well, despite the enthusiasm and competence of people like Robert Brown and Sylvia Burwell and Michael Crow, it's impossible to say right now what colleges and universities will be able to deliver in the fall.

[372] So coming up after the break, we'll hear what they think they can offer.

[373] Also, don't forget to subscribe to our new podcast, No Stupid Questions, which is available wherever podcasts are given away.

[374] I asked Sylvia Burwell how running the Department of Health and Human Services and the Office of Management and Budget may have prepared her for leading a university through a pandemic.

[375] Her time at HHS happened to coincide with the Ebola and Zika outbreaks.

[376] I think my time at HHS has been very specifically helpful in terms of understanding the basic framing of public health crises, that you approach this around the idea of prevention, detection, and response.

[377] American University was very early to send our students home, and a part of that was my understanding about the issues of density.

[378] as well as what burden that would put on the D .C. health care system.

[379] The density that we have is like density of other places.

[380] We see that with nursing homes.

[381] We see that with cruise ships.

[382] When people are in shared spaces, this was a highly transmissible disease.

[383] Let's assume that you do start on time and invite all students and faculty and staff back.

[384] What do you do to disperse that density?

[385] Do all dorms become singles?

[386] If so, where do all those extra people go and so on?

[387] So that is a part of what we're working through at American.

[388] We actually have three different task forces because the level of detail that one needs to consider these types of decisions is quite deep.

[389] And the task forces are focused on health and safety overall in terms of how we will do things like testing, the contact tracing, the isolation, those types of issues.

[390] We're focused on our workforce because bringing the workforce back is an integral part and related to our students and our faculty and research.

[391] And the third area is our student enrollment and students coming back.

[392] It's a place that's focused particularly on the students.

[393] Housing is very complicated from a health and safety perspective.

[394] That, again, is Michael Crow, president of Arizona State University.

[395] I think we have 15 ,000, 16 ,000 plus or minus, residents living in our own facilities in our residence halls.

[396] We still have 1 ,500 living in our residence halls because they have nowhere else to live.

[397] They live with us.

[398] Some schools ask them all to leave, and we were like, well, where would they go?

[399] So we've been taking care of them.

[400] And so for us, it's all about health and safety, food delivery, spacing, and so forth.

[401] Again, we don't know where we will be relative to the virus.

[402] But what we do know is that, you know, we have successfully managed our world thus far.

[403] And with the right technology and the right systems and the right behavior, you can make this work so long as the macro level of the virus is moving in the right direction.

[404] Bathrooms are a real issue, and bathrooms are going to be an issue for those in residence and for our classrooms and how you think about how you have lectures with people social distancing, how many people can you have.

[405] I think people haven't realized what this means, whether it's in the beauty shop or in a classroom, when you have fewer people in something, either you're going to do it for fewer people or you're going to do it more times.

[406] If I were to ask you to put one of your government hats back on for a moment, when you talk about the relatively large fraction of students who may not attend in the fall, that sounds like a problem, obviously.

[407] A lot of young people without something to do and a lot of parents who probably are ready for those kids to go do something.

[408] But it also sounds like an opportunity.

[409] And, you know, I'm thinking about things like AmeriCorps and other projects.

[410] If you had free reign with some government post to look at that relatively large pool of bright, motivated young people, is there anything comes to mind that you could do with them or help them do?

[411] I'm speaking in my old hat, say my Office of Management and Budget Hat, where I was a member of what's called the Troika, which is the Secretary of Treasury, the Director of the OMB, and the head of the Council of Economic Advisors, that helps put together the modeling for economics for the projections for the federal government.

[412] I would say wearing that old hat, one of the challenges is it is going to probably be a contractionary period with regard to the economy.

[413] But having said that, I think there are important things that we know we need And, you know, contact tracing is a space where we know we have needs.

[414] And so thinking through, how are you going to do that contact tracing?

[415] And should you turn to universities, schools of public health, should you turn to places like AmeriCorps?

[416] So thinking about the places where there will be unique demand and need is one thing that I think would be important to think about what young people can be doing.

[417] Let's imagine that there is a good app by fall that would enable pretty foolproof contact tracing.

[418] Would you make that a requirement?

[419] Would it be an opt -in situation?

[420] What's your thinking on that?

[421] So I actually think that contact tracing, I understand that it is actually about where people have been.

[422] The apps are very focused on that part of it.

[423] But contact tracing is actually a complex thing that in terms of you need to be trained.

[424] For Ebola, for instance, it wasn't good enough to know if you were on the same plane with a person who had Ebola.

[425] We had different standards of what you should do if you were three seats away, six seats away, 12 seats away.

[426] So there are important questions that need to be asked as we think through.

[427] Do I think that apps and things may be able to help and supplement?

[428] Yes, but this is where the real detailed level of analysis needs to occur.

[429] I have to make it mandatory.

[430] And that, again, is Robert Brown of Boston University on whether contact tracing should be mandatory.

[431] If people come back to me and say, I can drive the incidents down, the answer is absolutely yes.

[432] I would start with kind of a thought experiment, right?

[433] If I had perfect testing, what would the perfect testing look like?

[434] that for every person on my campus, the second that they, or the minute of, the hour they acquired COVID, an app on their phone told everybody around them they had it, including me, right?

[435] If I had that world, I wouldn't need much social distancing, because social distancing is basically the kind of long -term public health standard for lack of knowledge about who has the disease.

[436] What do you expect testing to look like for BU as of the start of your fall semester on September 1st?

[437] I've hoped to have enough testing that the question I can't answer is how we will use it, that we will have literally thousands of tests to administer per day that will be easily administered with no more than a 24 -hour turnaround.

[438] And what about the issue of, you know, the negative externality of young people potentially carrying the virus, and they're so far at least not very much at risk, but faculty and staff are in a different age cohort, typically.

[439] Have you thought about how to message to students that even though this is not really a big threat to them, that they are a big threat to others and how to get them to buy in?

[440] Well, I think that they've been living with this for the last 60 days, right, because they're at home with their parents.

[441] And they have exactly that same consequence with their relationship with their parents.

[442] And so I think that that messaging is actually not the hardest part.

[443] The hardest part is there will be people in our faculty and staff who either because of comorbidity or because of age or at higher risk.

[444] Our protocols that we're working on now is to try to find ways to give those faculty members who are uncomfortable in the classroom, the tools and the setting in which they can fulfill their responsibilities, right?

[445] And their responsibilities are to teach their classes, but also to interact with their students.

[446] And so, you know, at some level, this is trying to thread a needle.

[447] You want everyone to feel safe, but also we are a sector of the economy in which people have responsibilities in their positions that they have to fulfill.

[448] One concern a lot of our student listeners sent in was that their field of study cannot easily be converted to remote or online.

[449] I'm going into my second year of my master's in speech -language pathology, which requires a lot of face -to -face clinical experience.

[450] We need clients to fulfill our clinical hours, as without them, we can't graduate.

[451] My name is Ben, and I'm a grad student in the Department of Physics at UNC Chapel Hill.

[452] I teach a experimental techniques class, and of course that presented some pretty massive challenges for moving to online instruction because the class is lab -based.

[453] It's pretty much all hands -on collaborative work, and I'm planning to teach that again this summer and again in the fall, so we're just going to see how it goes.

[454] I live in San Diego, California, and studying to be a family nurse practitioner.

[455] I currently work full -time in an intensive care unit, Because of the pandemic, hospitals are limiting visitors, including volunteers and students.

[456] This spring semester, many students could not finish their clinical hours.

[457] I asked Robert Brown how Boston University was planning to handle instruction and research that can't be accomplished remotely.

[458] Well, it's really interesting because when you think about that, the tip of the spear is research, right, where you go in to do bench research.

[459] and the bench research will probably come back in June time frame in Massachusetts, my guess.

[460] And so we're deep into the protocols for doing that.

[461] And that'll be the first wave.

[462] And then we'll start gathering data.

[463] The second wave that will come in in mid -June and then July are medical students.

[464] Medical students going back into clinics first.

[465] These will be upper -year medical students.

[466] And then the first -year medical students who will actually come back into laboratories and classrooms, right?

[467] and we're going to be able to bring these things back slowly and watch how our protocols work.

[468] And if all goes well, which we're hoping, that'll give us a set of protocols for operating labs and studios and ensembles and other things in the fall when we bring back the rest of the university.

[469] But it's going to be different.

[470] You know, you're going to have an ensemble practice in a much larger room than the little studios that we have in the school.

[471] of music, which would not give them good social distancing.

[472] But you're absolutely right.

[473] There are majors and there are programs that just are not amenable long term to these kinds of protocols.

[474] You know, nothing works in academia across everything because there's too much variability in how we learn.

[475] Michael Crow, again, from Arizona State.

[476] Math, for instance, is highly adaptable to online instruction.

[477] But we have found other areas that are even more adaptable than and math.

[478] So we now have a 12 -course 36 -hour biology curriculum that we call the biospine, where all of those courses are tied to high school and middle school learning, but they're also completely fully aware of everything that you've ever done in every previous course going back and refreshing you and teaching you how you learned and then bringing you into it.

[479] And so we've been able to use these technologies to greatly enhance our learning outcomes in particular areas, which then freeze up our energy in other areas and allows more traditional modalities to work more fruitfully because the student wasn't wiped out in math 117 or they weren't wiped out in biology 203.

[480] So what's happening with your 2020 graduates in the job market?

[481] And what can the university do to help that?

[482] Well, we have about 13 ,000 organizations that recruit the students from ASU.

[483] Recruitment intensity has, you know, it's not diminished to where you think.

[484] It's still going on.

[485] People are still getting offers.

[486] Some offers are deferred.

[487] It turns out that nature takes its course and people are retiring and people are quitting and new people are needed by the thousands.

[488] You know, overall, there's a shortage of college graduates in the United States.

[489] So demand for college graduates succeed supply.

[490] That may be true generally, but let's not forget, the U .S. unemployment rate is currently creeping toward 20%.

[491] And according to the Institute of Student Employers, many firms plan to significantly reduce their hiring of recent graduates.

[492] Now, it may be even worse for older workers.

[493] Recent college graduates tend to be cheaper.

[494] In any case, it's hard to paint any kind of sunny picture at this moment about employment.

[495] Still, you can't blame Michael Crow for projecting optimism about his recent graduates, optimism is a big part of what a college president gets paid for.

[496] But in his case, it's more than optimism.

[497] Crow has different ideas about what college should be.

[498] He believes that too many conversations about higher education for too many years have focused on the wrong thing.

[499] The furtherance of a relatively small class of children from elite families looking to extend their elitism.

[500] He likes to talk about Arizona State as the new American university, part of what he calls the fifth wave of higher ed.

[501] And this wave is focused on using all available technologies to make all forms of education available to all segments of society.

[502] I mean, it's the case that about the same percentage of students from the lower quartile of family incomes are graduating from college in the United States as graduated 50 years ago.

[503] So there's very little in the sense of innovative engagement.

[504] It's still the case that the majority of people that start college in the United States, the majority of people that have ever had a Pell Grant never graduated.

[505] And so we don't have a system that has innovated or adapted because it's basically the same thing being offered in the same way over and over and over and over.

[506] For students who start and don't graduate, what are the primary impediments?

[507] What do the data tell you there?

[508] The data tell us that the primary impediment is actually not financial.

[509] The primary impediment is lack of cultural readiness.

[510] I don't mean ethnic cultural models, but I mean there's little flexibility in the common college or university model and not everybody's ready for that learning modality and thereby they get off track.

[511] They are overwhelmed by the complexity.

[512] It's not like high school.

[513] It's not how they were taught before.

[514] And so many, many students don't succeed.

[515] So I think we're at a high water marker close to it now in America in terms of people getting college degrees, but still only about 45 percent of Americans will get either an associate or a bachelor's degree.

[516] So as someone who wants to build the new American university with much more access and just basically more capacity, What are your thoughts on the other 55 % of Americans, especially in an economy that's had wage stagnation already, and now we've got, you know, the disappearance of 30 million jobs.

[517] And, you know, as reemployment happens, I'm guessing having no degree is going to put you even further behind.

[518] So in the middle of COVID, we launched a thing called ASU for you, which has, you know, curriculum for parents at home and pathways to finish high school and pathways for people to get some.

[519] courses so that they can maybe position themselves for a better job or for a different job or for a different life or a different outcome.

[520] And so all of that is premised on something.

[521] It's premised on the notion that we're still operating in a society where we have some people whose lives are free and clear.

[522] They can do whatever they want.

[523] They can move into a whole new areas.

[524] They can be creative.

[525] They can be dynamic.

[526] And other people are, you know, still advancing basically with their bodies as the way in which they're doing the work, meaning we don't have equal opportunity for the true human potential to be realized across every person.

[527] And so what we've decided to do is to turn ourselves into a place where people that want to learn can connect to us, whether they're a formal student or not.

[528] Universal learning needs to be where we're headed.

[529] All learning institutions need to be able to connect to all learners.

[530] You know, I think every big thing like this changes the way that people think changes the psychology.

[531] I mean, I have three grandchildren that live here that I can only look at across the yard because they don't want to get to the old folks like myself sick.

[532] And so, you know, that's weird.

[533] I mean, that's psychologically weird.

[534] I'm sure it has an impact on them also.

[535] And so are there likely to be sociological impacts from this?

[536] Yes, cultural impacts.

[537] Yes.

[538] I happen to be an optimist, though.

[539] So I happen to really believe that we're still approaching the apex of the Enlightenment and the notion of rational thought.

[540] And we will adjust and we will adapt and we will come out of this stronger and better for it.

[541] And certainly we'll come out of it better prepared than we were when this thing got going.

[542] Hi, my name is Josh Fleming.

[543] I'm a professor of speech communication and theater at Pasadena City College.

[544] The longer we stay in this situation where we have to teach remotely and therefore learn remotely, the more savvy we're going to become, I hope, I believe.

[545] that what I'm doing online in my virtual classroom, when I take it back into the classroom, it's just going to change how I communicate and how I shape the information that my students are there for.

[546] I think it's going to be awesome.

[547] And I think we're going just to be vastly different on the other side of this.

[548] In all different endeavors, how we conduct ourselves as a society, will change.

[549] And the educational system will be.

[550] be a good indicator of how we will change.

[551] There's already been a lot of change, including at Boston University and American University and Arizona State University, virtual commencement ceremonies and senior celebrations.

[552] Good morning, class of 2020.

[553] Candidates for degrees, parents, family, alumni, and friends.

[554] On behalf of the American University community, welcome to our 139th commencement.

[555] We're here to really recognize the achievement of our students, the faculty and the staff that have supported them.

[556] I would have never imagined that I would be speaking to you at your senior breakfast via zoo with a campus empty and us dispersed around the world because of COVID -19.

[557] While I'm disappointed that we cannot be together in Bender Arena, today is still a celebration of you.

[558] We must imagine this morning what 20 ,000 family and friends would look like in this.

[559] stands at Nickerson Field.

[560] And what 5 ,000 graduates all in Red Rose will look like on the green field.

[561] And while you're imagining, please throw in a bright sunny day with no rain.

[562] I just want to say congratulations.

[563] Congratulations to the class of 2020.

[564] You are now officially alumni of American University.

[565] As we close today's celebration, we leave you with the AU gospel choir and AU chamber singers and their performance of the best is yet to come thanks for listening we'll be back next week until then take care of yourself and if you can someone else too Freakonomics radio is produced by Stitcher and Dubner Productions this episode was produced by Daphne Chen.

[566] Thanks to everyone who sent in voice memos about college they were great.

[567] We could only use a fraction of what we received but But thanks to all of you who sent in something.

[568] Our staff also includes Allison Craiglo, Greg Rippen, Zach Lipinski, Matt Hickey, Harry Huggins, Corinne Wallace, and Mary to Duke.

[569] Our intern is Isabel O 'Brien.

[570] We had help this week from James Foster.

[571] Our theme song is Mr. Fortune by The Hitchhikers.

[572] All the other music was composed by Luis Gera.

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