Morning Wire XX
[0] This week is being billed as the most important week of the summer, as crucial information is revealed about the economy.
[1] Is the U .S. currently in a recession, and will the Fed trigger another historic interest rate hike?
[2] We have the full report.
[3] I'm John Bickley with Georgia Howl.
[4] It's Monday, July 25th, and this is Morning Wire.
[5] The House has passed a contraception bill with a handful of Republicans joining the Democrat majority to federalize birth control laws.
[6] But the bill faces an uphill battle.
[7] in the Senate.
[8] We discuss why.
[9] And a Republican candidate for governor of New York was attacked on the campaign trail last week while talking about bail reform.
[10] His attacker was released hours later as a result of those very laws.
[11] We look at the case and the political fallout.
[12] Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire.
[13] Stay tuned.
[14] We have the news you need to know.
[15] As of this month, we've had a 40 -year high inflation at 9 .1%.
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[21] As the U .S. economy continues to struggle under record inflation, economists are bracing for what's been billed as the most important week of the summer.
[22] with critical information on a potential recession set to release this week.
[23] Joining us now to break it all down is Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips.
[24] Cabot always a lot to get to on the economy these days, but this week in particular is crucial.
[25] What can you tell us here?
[26] So for the last few months, there's been this looming fear that a recession is coming, and this week we're going to find out just how legitimate those fears are.
[27] On Thursday, the U .S. GDP report will come out.
[28] Remember, this basically tracks the total output of our economy, and tells us the story of our country's economic health.
[29] In the first quarter, the GDP shrank by 1 .6%, and numerous signs indicate that it's once again shrunk this quarter.
[30] Now, if that happens, and Thursday's report shows a contraction, the U .S. will, by definition, be in a recession.
[31] And if that happens, as you can imagine, it's going to have a massive impact as consumers historically act and spend very differently when they know the economy is in a recession.
[32] So Thursday's report is going to be a big one.
[33] Yeah, well, that's not all that's happening this week, right?
[34] Yeah, tomorrow and Wednesday, there will also be a crucial set of meetings where the Federal Reserve will decide on the next interest rate hikes.
[35] Back in June, they announced a 0 .75 % increase, which at the time was the largest single spike in 25 years, and they're expected to once again do the same at this week's meeting, another 0 .75.
[36] It's all part of the Fed's broader plan to slow the economy down, which sounds counterintuitive, but remember, their goal is to try and stop inflation, and they're hoping that by inflicting some short -term pain and essentially helping to create a recession, that they'll make things better in the long run by curbing inflation.
[37] To that point, where do we stand on inflation?
[38] So we've talked plenty on the show about how bad inflation has gotten.
[39] Last month, it hit 9 .1%.
[40] That's a rate we hadn't seen in four decades.
[41] but there are a few metrics that seem to be giving some reason for optimism.
[42] First, gas prices have dropped about 10 % in the last month, though they're still sitting at $4 .40 a gallon nationwide.
[43] We've also seen some improvement on supply chain costs with the price of shipping goods from East Asia to the U .S., dropping 11 % last month.
[44] That's certainly good news.
[45] Yeah, and also futures prices on a number of key food commodities like corn and wheat, they've dropped by over 20 % since May. So while those are all good things to hear, a 10 % drop in gas for shipping still doesn't really feel like relief for most people, just given the fact the prices are still so much higher than they've been in years past.
[46] As Sarah House, chief economist for Wells Fargo puts it, peak or not, inflation is going to remain painful through the end of the year.
[47] And there's also a bit of a boy who cried wolf situation here where President Biden and government economists have said for months now that inflation had reached its peak only for it to continue climbing higher.
[48] So most Americans just aren't getting their hopes up right now, even though we are seeing some signs for optimism.
[49] Yeah, it does feel like we've heard that message before, and it just wasn't true.
[50] Exactly.
[51] Where does general sentiment stand right now for the American people?
[52] How do they feel about the economy?
[53] Still not good at all.
[54] They're incredibly concerned on pretty much every front, and that has really baffled and frustrated the White House.
[55] The president and his administration have continued to point to low unemployment, increased household savings, and the strong housing market, as evidence that things.
[56] are actually quite strong economically, but most people just aren't buying it.
[57] For example, consumer sentiment ratings are currently at their lowest point since the 1980 recession, and polling shows more Americans than at any point on record saying they're not optimistic about their personal finances in the coming year.
[58] As summer comes to an end and a new school year starts, those concerns are likely to be further exacerbated as families begin making decisions that will impact their entire year.
[59] Right, that makes sense.
[60] Cabot, thanks for reporting.
[61] Anytime.
[62] That's Daily Wire senior editor, Cabot.
[63] Phillips.
[64] Coming up, the House passes a federal contraception rights bill.
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[68] A bill that establishes a federal right to contraceptives passed the House last week, Despite receiving bipartisan support in the House, the bill is proved controversial with some religious groups.
[69] These groups argue that some parts of the Act conflict with a 1993 law, the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, that provides some exemptions on religious grounds.
[70] Here to explain why Democrats initiated this legislation and why some faith groups are worried about some language in the new bill is Daily Wire Culture Reporter Megan Basham.
[71] So, Megan, birth control is widely used and not generally seen as controversial.
[72] So what's behind this push to fortify contraception access?
[73] Why now?
[74] Well, as we just talked about last week with that respect for marriage act concerning same -sex unions, this bill also stems from that concurrence that Justice Clarence Thomas wrote to the Supreme Court's decision overturning Roeby Wade.
[75] Now, in that concurrence, Thomas argued that other decisions that depended on the same right to that Roe was founded on should be reconsidered.
[76] Well, one of those cases is 1965's Griswold v. Connecticut, which established a right to contraception.
[77] Democrats are concerned that the justices may follow through on reconsidering those other decisions and that contraception may be on the chopping block next.
[78] So this was New Jersey's Democratic Congressman Frank Polone making that point before the House vote last week.
[79] This has opened the door for Republican legislators in states like Idaho.
[80] Louisiana and Mississippi to try to ban certain contraceptive methods.
[81] Republicans, on the other hand, say this is all just a smokescreen and no one is interested in restricting access to birth control.
[82] They point out that no other justice joined Thomas's concurrence and that the opinion Alito issued made it clear that the ruling was not to apply to any other precedents beyond Roe.
[83] Now, as to the bill itself, Republicans say it contains measures that specifically and unconstitutionally target religious freedoms.
[84] And how would the bill affect religious freedom?
[85] Well, the crux of the issue is that some private employers and health care providers have religious objections to birth control, especially birth control that can be used as abortifacients.
[86] And they want to have the right to not pay for it.
[87] At the same time, states that outlaw abortion don't want some birth control that can cause abortions when prescribed before 10 weeks to be used to circumvent those new state laws.
[88] So this bill doesn't just make birth control legal in every state.
[89] It includes language that says that these religious objections impede patients from obtaining, and I'm just going to quote, their preferred method of contraception.
[90] So this could be interpreted to mean all forms of contraception must be offered, even those known to have off -label uses as abortifacians.
[91] So critics are particularly concerned about that word impede, because it specifically frames religious freedom of some individuals as an undue burden on other members of society.
[92] Now, this is a debate that the Supreme Court has addressed before.
[93] In 2014, for example, the justice has ruled that because of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, known as RFRA, the Christian owners of Hobby Lobby did not have to abide by Obamacare mandates to offer employees' coverage for contraception because it violated the tenets of their faith.
[94] Now, the court made a similar ruling in 2020 in favor of the Catholic charity Little Sisters of the Poor on those same grounds.
[95] I spoke to Andrew Walker, a professor of theology and fellow with the Ethics and Public Policy Center, about this bill, and he highlighted other objections religious Americans are likely to have with it.
[96] There are some, quite frankly, ambiguous sections in the bill.
[97] Section 4 talks about how no one can prohibit any limitation or requirement that impeach.
[98] access to contraceptives.
[99] And so that raises a question.
[100] Is an exclusion in employer health care plans to abortive patient contraceptives a violation of that section?
[101] Now, if the court ruled in favor of Hobby Lobby and Little Sisters of the Poor as recently as 2020, can we assume that they would strike down a law like this again?
[102] Yeah, you know, I asked Walker that same question, and he felt that, yes, this law would likely run into a religious freedom wall, but that there could be some pretty ugly court battles in the meantime.
[103] So the bill now moves to the Senate.
[104] What are its chances there?
[105] They look pretty slim because of those religious freedom questions.
[106] Already, some moderate Republicans like Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska are signaling that they might not support it.
[107] So getting the 10 Republicans the bill will need to pass would be an uphill battle.
[108] That said, there is some talk in the Senate that they may propose their own legislation and shrining a right to contraception.
[109] If so, then we'll have to see how that body handles these riffer questions.
[110] All right.
[111] Well, we'll keep an eye on that.
[112] Megan, thanks so much for reporting.
[113] Yeah, my pleasure.
[114] That was Daily Wire Culture reporter, Megan Basham.
[115] Last week on the campaign trail, GOP congressman and New York gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin was attacked on stage while making a speech.
[116] But it's what happened next.
[117] that's drawing a lot of attention to the Empire State.
[118] Within just hours, the suspect was released from police custody on his own recognizance without bail, even though a weapon was used and he was charged with a felony.
[119] He has since been arrested on federal charges.
[120] Here to join us and talk about the attack and the bail reform laws that let the suspect go is columnist David Marcus.
[121] Hey, Dave, so what went on here?
[122] Morning.
[123] So Zeldon was giving a speech, ironically, about bail reform.
[124] When this man went on stage and thrusted his right fist on which he wore a self -defense keychain with two blades at Zelda's throat, the congressman grabbed the arm, others jumped in to tackle the assailant, and he was arrested.
[125] And as you said, just six hours later, he was back on the street, which has become a super familiar story for New Yorkers.
[126] Right.
[127] So he was let go by New York, but two days later, he was arrested and is currently in custody on federal charges.
[128] What were those charges?
[129] Well, he's been charged with the federal crime of attacking a member of Congress, you know, who are federal officials.
[130] This was something that Zeldon had asked for, and I think there's a sense of relief that had happened, but also the knowledge that most New Yorkers aren't members of Congress who get this special protection.
[131] So his initial release on state charges is still quite jarring.
[132] Now, what is Zeldon's opponent, the current governor, Kathy Hokel, who's serving out former governor Cuomo's term, saying about this whole incident?
[133] It's interesting.
[134] She tweeted out the right thing that night, condemning the attack and all, but said something else.
[135] She said she was, quote, relieved, unquote, that the suspect was in custody.
[136] That was 9 .45 that night, and just a few scant hours later, he wasn't in custody as a result of the bail reform laws she supports.
[137] So these things do seem at odds with each other, and I think she'll be asked about it.
[138] This comes at a time when crime is a big national issue, and certainly one in New York.
[139] Could this shake up the race at all by putting it front and center?
[140] Oh, it could, and Republicans are hoping for that.
[141] But honestly, in New York, especially in the five boroughs where about half the population lives, crime is almost the only issue.
[142] And that's because it is visceral, right?
[143] We really do feel it here.
[144] For 30 years, this city was safe as houses.
[145] And now people are afraid to ride the subway.
[146] I don't want to overstate it.
[147] It's not a Batman movie yet, but it's bad.
[148] by far the biggest election issue.
[149] I appreciate the Batman reference.
[150] Now, even some prominent Democrats in New York, including Mayor Eric Adams, oppose these bail reform laws.
[151] Why haven't they been changed?
[152] That's a great question.
[153] And it just seems like a lack of will.
[154] Adams is not willing to go to the mattresses on this by, for example, supporting primaries against Democrat state legislators who won't fix this.
[155] And that's true of others, like Bronx Congressman Richie Torres.
[156] in Adams' case, in particular, this fits a broader narrative from critics that he talks a good game on public safety, but then just doesn't do enough.
[157] I'd also add, with the governor's race well underway, the party doesn't want the Democrat mayor and the Democrat governor at war.
[158] But don't be too surprised if Zeldon points out that difference between them early and often.
[159] Yeah, that might be a wise move.
[160] David, thanks for joining us.
[161] That was Daily Wire contributor, David Marcus.
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