New York City’s 3 Percent Problem

[0] From the New York Times, I'm Michael Babaro.

[1] This is a daily.

[2] Today.

[3] The story of how the nation's largest public school system defied the odds to reopen for in -person classes, then promptly shut down again after just eight weeks.

[4] My colleague, Eliza Shapiro, on The Lessons from New York's Experience.

[5] It's Monday.

[6] November 23rd.

[7] Eliza, I wonder if you can describe from me the experience of being a New York City public school parent or teacher or administrator over the past few weeks.

[8] So...

[9] And now to the coronavirus pandemic, all eyes on New York City schools.

[10] Every morning for the last few weeks in New York City, hundreds of thousands of people, parents, teachers, kids, politicians have been engaged in this very intense unusual ritual of rushing their computers or picking up their phones every morning and frantically checking Twitter or the news to see if today was the day we were going to hit this reviled number, 3%.

[11] And when we hit that, schools will close, but for right now, they remain open.

[12] And tell me about that number of 3%.

[13] So 3 % is the average number of coronavirus tests that come back positive across New York City over a seven -day period.

[14] So once we hit that number, the entire school system shuts down.

[15] So no wiggle room.

[16] 3 % closed.

[17] No wiggle room.

[18] New York City is moving closer and closer to closing its schools.

[19] And it now stands at 2 .57%.

[20] 2 .6 % inching closer.

[21] 2 .83%.

[22] Less than 2 tenths of a point from the shutdown trigger.

[23] 3 % could be right around the corner.

[24] The question is whether New York City's Department of Education is ready to go all remote once schools are closed.

[25] And last Wednesday morning, we woke up and we realized that we'd hit exactly 3 .00 % on the dock.

[26] Unfortunately, as of today, on our seven -day rolling average for coronavirus positivity, New York City, has hit exactly 3 .0%.

[27] And as a result, we do need to close our schools for the coming days.

[28] And all of a sudden, hundreds of thousands of parents, Parents and educators just kind of felt like the rug had been ripped out from under them.

[29] The risk of spread in schools is low, and the harm that we are doing to our children is high.

[30] I am sick as a working mom of waiting, checking Twitter to see if schools are going to be open tomorrow and how to juggle my work responsibilities and tell my daughter again to buck up.

[31] She should be grateful for one to two days of school a week.

[32] It's time to get our kids back in school now.

[33] Schools are safe.

[34] Schools are safe.

[35] Schools are safe.

[36] Schools are safe.

[37] So, Eliza, how did we get to this moment of such frustration?

[38] I mean, how did it come to be that an entire learning system rode on a single number like 3 %?

[39] How is it that we arrived at that pretty peculiar situation?

[40] So let me take you back to this summer.

[41] New York City was just coming out of this unbelievably horrific.

[42] traumatic, bleak period where we were a global epicenter of the virus.

[43] And then all of a sudden, by late June, early July, I mean, the city was really, really turning a corner.

[44] The numbers were getting so much better and people were filling up parks and beaches and responsibly hanging out outside.

[45] And the city just felt like it was on the mend.

[46] And so immediately people's first thought and the mayor's first thought goes to schools.

[47] You know, can we actually get the this massive public school system open in a few months in the fall if we are, in fact, turning a corner as a city.

[48] New Yorkers have achieved so much together over the last few months.

[49] So pretty early in the summer, Mayor Bill de Blasio comes out and says, I am going to do this incredibly hard thing.

[50] And that's reopening our schools.

[51] Reopen the public schools.

[52] We need to help our kids begin.

[53] So he sort of spends.

[54] a bunch of the summer making a moral case for reopening schools.

[55] What do you mean a moral case?

[56] Here we go.

[57] So not long after the mayor said he wanted to get these schools open, he was going to get these schools open, I got to talk to him.

[58] I wanted to ask him why this was so important for him, why he was so intent on reopening this massive, sprawling, complicated school system.

[59] Hello, sir.

[60] I'm okay.

[61] How are you?

[62] Oh, it is nice and cool in this classroom.

[63] So we met in the northern end of the Bronx in a big, empty public high school where there were a bunch of custodians sort of jamming open windows to improve ventilation and get fresh air in windows that in some cases seem to have not been open for a very long time.

[64] And we kind of folded ourselves into these little desks.

[65] He's super tall, so he sort of had to squeeze himself in there.

[66] We sat six feet apart, and I asked him, you know, tell me why this is so important to you.

[67] What does school reopening mean to you for the city?

[68] Could you ask a simpler first question?

[69] Okay.

[70] What you have to understand about Bill de Blasio is he came into office promising to be kind of the education mayor.

[71] He has always said that education is his top priority, that reducing inequality in the public school system is his sort of biggest task.

[72] He also genuinely believes that school should be open.

[73] They need this.

[74] I think the simplest thing to say to begin is they need this.

[75] It's not optional to them.

[76] And what he said is he sort of made the case for why in person is so important and why he thought families needed the option of going back into classroom.

[77] I think much more deeply there is an inequality that attends to remote learning.

[78] He also talked about the costs of keeping schools closed.

[79] I mean, the vast majority of students who go to New York City public schools are low income.

[80] There are over 100 ,000 homeless students.

[81] There are 200 ,000 students with disabilities.

[82] Wow.

[83] I mean, the scale of need in this public school system is unlike anything else in the country.

[84] You might not get the health care, or mental health care, or dental care, or laundry services in some cases that you can get in a public school system.

[85] Schools are places where abuse is spotted and without kids actually showing up to the door every day and teachers asking what's going on at home or being able to see that something is wrong, that's a potentially really dangerous situation.

[86] There's so many things happening here, so many things riding on this decision.

[87] And then he also told me, look around us.

[88] Look at New York City right now.

[89] This city has been heroic.

[90] The people of the city really have been heroic.

[91] We're the envy of the country.

[92] We have these incredibly low positivity rates.

[93] And he said, if any place can do it, we're the place that can do it.

[94] You know, I would much rather be criticized for we tried, even if it didn't work out the way we hoped, then we didn't have the courage to try.

[95] So you're not planning to delay this time.

[96] I have a very clear plan.

[97] And I'll always listen to concerns.

[98] I'll watch the health care situation.

[99] I'll listen to substantive issues if people raise them.

[100] But the plan is the plan.

[101] So now that the mayor has laid out his argument for doing this, how does he actually start to reopen the system?

[102] So very quickly, after the mayor says he wants to get schools open, it becomes clear that this is basically the hardest thing he's ever, try to do as mayor.

[103] I mean, the sort of logistics of it are just dizzying.

[104] The tasks start piling up day after day, hour after hour.

[105] One of the biggest immediate tasks was that the mayor gave kids and families a choice of whether they wanted to come back into classrooms or not.

[106] So all of a sudden, the city had to create two school systems out of one, one for the kids who were going to be home and one for the kids who are going to be back in the classroom, at least part of the week, so that they could rotate in and out for social distancing.

[107] So that's one whole logistical nightmare.

[108] And then there's just actually getting the school buildings ready, which is an absolute enormous undertaking.

[109] New York City has well over a thousand school buildings.

[110] Many of them are over a century old.

[111] They have windows that don't open.

[112] They have windows that don't open.

[113] They HVACs that have been broken for years.

[114] They have radiators and heating systems that maybe have never worked.

[115] And you had to basically transform what New York City classrooms look like.

[116] Desks are spaced six feet apart.

[117] The city has to find personal protective equipment for kids and teachers and nurses and everyone in the building.

[118] They have to get, you know, more spray, face shields.

[119] I mean, every piece of cleaning equipment you can think of, these schools needed.

[120] And they needed them really quickly.

[121] Because remember, the city basically gave itself two months to pull off essentially the hardest logistical task in decades that this city has tried.

[122] Right.

[123] So as the mayor starts going through this enormous to -do list, there starts to be a growing resistance against his reopening plan.

[124] Children cannot focus on schoolwork if their family members and teachers are in the hospital or dying.

[125] Children cannot learn if they're dead.

[126] Many teachers saying, we don't feel safe.

[127] We don't think it's right to go back into our 100 -year -old school buildings and teach kids in a mask and just hope that it's safe.

[128] We will not be an experiment.

[129] We will not die so that the economy can get back to work.

[130] So you were seeing big protests near City Hall and in lower Manhattan teachers were carrying coffins.

[131] They were saying, we're scared we're going to die.

[132] I mean, there was this movement where teachers were changing their Twitter handles to say, we won't die for the Department of Education.

[133] We won't die for the city of New York.

[134] That will die if this reopening plan happens.

[135] I believe action.

[136] A days ago, a ride to the ER gasping for air at 6 .30 in the morning and by 6 .30 at night, he was dead without family at his bedside, alone.

[137] I don't want to see the teachers in that position.

[138] I don't want to see the children in that position.

[139] And so how does the mayor respond to this?

[140] I mean, having teachers in the streets saying they're afraid of dying in the classroom seems like a pretty important obstacle.

[141] So at the height of this sort of period of resistance and protest and fear and skepticism about the reopening plan, The mayor kind of has to come up with a way of calming people down.

[142] Well, this morning, we're going to talk about the most important piece of reopening this city, restarting this city, and that's starting our schools up again.

[143] And so he comes out and he says, okay, folks, I hear you.

[144] And we understand the anxiety.

[145] We understand the fear because this city's been through so much.

[146] And I have a plan to keep you safe.

[147] And if it isn't safe, we don't do it.

[148] It's as simple as that.

[149] And so he kind of introduces this menu of safety measures.

[150] So what are we doing?

[151] You've heard some of it before.

[152] It's wearing a mask all day.

[153] It's social distancing.

[154] Free priority testing.

[155] It's having a nurse in every school building.

[156] Making sure that teachers, kids, staff all have the personal protective equipment.

[157] And then finally, he says, We will not reopen our schools unless the city infection rate is below 3%.

[158] You have my word that I'm going to shut down the whole school system if we ever reach 3 % positivity.

[159] Ah, so this is the moment that the 3 % rule comes into play.

[160] Exactly.

[161] And how does the mayor explain how he arrived at that 3 % number, what it's based on?

[162] So at the time, the number that was kind of floating around there for when your alarm bell should start to go off and when schools and other things may not be safe was 5%.

[163] So we're hearing 5 % a lot.

[164] And I think basically part of what happened is that the mayor and his team looked at that number and they said to the city, we're going to do you one better.

[165] We're going to come in below 5 % as a symbol.

[166] It was a promise.

[167] It was a way of saying, I'm going to set the lowest, most conservative threshold that's out there, and that is proof that I'm taking school safety really, really seriously in this pandemic.

[168] And does it work?

[169] Does this 3 % number start to assuage the doubts and anxieties of these teachers, of these parents?

[170] So I think in combination with some other safety measures that teachers were fighting for, we begin to see away, a path to reopening.

[171] The deaths are being rearranged.

[172] The masks and the Clorox wipes are coming in, and we're so far from 3 % at this point.

[173] I mean, we have days where we're under 1 % that it seems like, oh, we are in good shape.

[174] And sure enough, in late September, they opened the doors of the school buildings.

[175] Good morning, Jersey.

[176] Come here.

[177] I love your mask.

[178] And all of a sudden, for the first time since early March, you saw kids with backpacks walking into schools.

[179] They had their masks on, but they were so clearly delighted to be there.

[180] And actually, for about eight weeks, it seems to be going pretty well.

[181] More and more parents are coming out and saying, God, my kid is happier than they've been in a long time.

[182] And more and more teachers, including many teachers who were really, really concerned about safety over the summer, are saying, I feel like I'm making so much progress because we're in person and, yes, this is not easy, but something here is working.

[183] And I think it was a very proud moment for the mayor, but it didn't last very long.

[184] After about a few weeks back in the classroom, we begin to see the numbers slowly, slowly, slowly, but steadily tick up.

[185] And no longer are we hovering around 1%, but we're getting to 1 .5 and sometimes we're getting to 2.

[186] And then all of a sudden, everyone is like, wait, remember the 3 % thing that we haven't talked about for weeks or months because the city's been doing so well?

[187] That number is kind of in our sights.

[188] But just to be clear, even as this number of the citywide coronavirus positivity rate is starting to creep up, inside these schools, does it remain safe?

[189] Right.

[190] I mean, the mayor is surprised, actually, pleasantly surprised by how safe the schools are.

[191] At one point, one of his top public health officials said, public schools are among the safest places to be in New York City, you know, outside of your own home.

[192] But the school system is not going to shut down because the schools are unsafe.

[193] Once we hit 3%, no matter what, the entire school system is going to shut down.

[194] down anyway, which is exactly what happened.

[195] We'll be right back.

[196] So, Eliza, at this point, the entire New York City public school system is virtual again.

[197] Everyone's home, everyone's attending classes in front of a computer in their house.

[198] Right.

[199] I mean, opening schools was so, so challenging.

[200] And here we are, not two months later, and closing them down is really, really hard to do.

[201] I have heard just a lot of anguish from parents.

[202] One mom who has a child with disabilities said their kid was lucky enough to go to school in person most days of the week and it had been transformational.

[203] She felt like she was seeing the kid she knows come back to life after this period of sort of misery and frustration with remote learning.

[204] Wow.

[205] There's so much frustration and so much sadness, but there's also just so much confusion.

[206] I mean, we live in a city right now where the entire public school system is closed.

[207] But so much else is open.

[208] I could go to dinner tonight indoors, since it's kind of cold outside, but kids can't go to public schools.

[209] I could go to the gym.

[210] I could get my nails done.

[211] I could go to a museum.

[212] That may not last long, but for right now there's a lot you can do in New York that's open.

[213] and public schools are closed.

[214] That makes me curious, how are public health officials in the country reacting to the closure based on the 3 % number?

[215] Yeah, I mean, a lot of them are saying it doesn't quite make sense to them either.

[216] I mean, you have Dr. Fauci recently.

[217] I mean, sort of the most trusted person in the country on coronavirus come out and say, closing schools at that rate doesn't really make sense to him, that the default position should be to keep the schools open.

[218] And he said, if you possibly can, you know, we know that at least schools, elementary schools and schools for younger children, they're safer than certainly the worst fears.

[219] And knowing all of that and hearing Dr. Fauci say, whatever you can do to keep the schools open, you should do, I mean, I think it's just added to parents' frustration and rage and sort of exhaustion with this whole 3 % thing.

[220] Right.

[221] So it's very clear that if not just parents, but Anthony Fauci himself are casting doubt on this number that everybody involved in coming up with that 3 % figure needs to be asking themselves, did that ever make sense?

[222] Was that a mistake?

[223] I think what this whole 3 % meltdown shows us is that decision making in a pandemic, especially when it comes to kids, especially when it comes to schools.

[224] It's actually never going to be based purely on the science.

[225] I mean, there is so much emotion and intensity and fear rightfully.

[226] These are children.

[227] These are teachers.

[228] These are precious members of our society.

[229] There's so much fear and emotion around schools that it's really, really hard to make policy that doesn't have politics and PR as part of it.

[230] It's very interesting what you just said.

[231] It makes me wonder if the mayor himself, people around him, in their heart of hearts, wish that they didn't have to abide by their own number here, this 3 % rule.

[232] Yes, I think the mayor is really frustrated and upset and sad that this day has come.

[233] But I think what I'm understanding about the mayor's thinking right now is that he's thought, oh my God, what would it mean if I actually said, never mind.

[234] We have a new number.

[235] Now it's five, now it's seven, whatever it is.

[236] I think there is this deep feeling in the mayor's administration and with de Blasio himself that it would be a promise that he couldn't break.

[237] He spent all summer talking about how this was a vow, this was a symbol.

[238] And what I hear them saying is, and what would it say if we broke it, even though a lot of people want us to break it?

[239] But I think you have to remember the context in which we got to this, dreaded 3 % number.

[240] It was a moment in which breaking a promise like this would sort of be an unimaginable thing.

[241] It would come off like a betrayal.

[242] And I think the mayor is still feeling really nervous about that.

[243] I mean, if you take us back to the worst days of March, people were begging the mayor to close the school system.

[244] And he said, no, I'd act, you know, I want to keep it open as long as possible.

[245] And in retrospect, the city kept the schools open too long.

[246] And I think there is just a lot of regret.

[247] and fear and anxiety about what if we ever left a school system open, even a day too long.

[248] And what we're seeing now is decision -making, as was so much in this pandemic, that is really rooted in fear and regret and a profound sense of responsibility of, I have to find a way to keep this city safe because New York was not a safe place just a few months ago.

[249] So, Eliza, what exactly happens now?

[250] When might New York City's public schools reopen?

[251] Is it as simple a question as the next time the seven -day rolling average dips below 3 %?

[252] Is that the world we live in now?

[253] We wait every day and check and see as it finally dipped back below 3%.

[254] So I think going forward, we're going to be talking a lot less about this 3 % figure.

[255] We actually don't know.

[256] There isn't a plan right now for what it's going to be.

[257] to reopen.

[258] The mayor is, again, promising, making a promise that they will.

[259] So we don't know what it's going to take, but I think the city now has to fight its way out of being tethered to this number that has caused so much frustration and anger and confusion.

[260] I think Bill de Blasio would, in a perfect world, never want to talk about 3 % ever again.

[261] And I'm sure public school parents wouldn't either.

[262] Right.

[263] I'm curious what you think the lessons are.

[264] are from the New York City public school system experience for school systems around the rest of the country?

[265] Is the lesson don't open until the pandemic is really over?

[266] So you don't get into this position?

[267] Is the lesson open, but don't do it with a 3 % number?

[268] What's the lesson?

[269] Yeah, I think, you know, don't ever open until we're all vaccinated is probably not going to be good enough for a lot of kids and families in America.

[270] And the reality is, I mean, we've learned this over and over in this pandemic.

[271] This is what school opening is going to look like.

[272] You're going to be open for a bit and then you're going to close.

[273] And there's going to be a cycle of that because there is no consistency in this moment.

[274] And that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to have kids learn in person.

[275] But what it does mean is that you have to have a really good plan for both.

[276] You have to have a good entry strategy and a good exit strategy or else all of your work, to get kids in there in the first place, it just doesn't mean as much anymore.

[277] Thank you, Eliza.

[278] We appreciate it.

[279] Thank you.

[280] We'll be right back.

[281] Here's what else you need to know today.

[282] Pennsylvania is set to certify President -elect Joe Biden's victory there on Monday after the latest failure by President Trump and his lawyers to block or delay the process in court.

[283] A lawsuit filed to file.

[284] by the Trump campaign, which baselessly alleged widespread problems with mail -in ballots in Pennsylvania, was dismissed on Saturday by a federal judge who said that it lacked evidence.

[285] Soon after, Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, a Republican, declared that Trump had, quote, exhausted all plausible legal options in the state and congratulated Biden on his victory.

[286] And Biden will begin announcing members of his cabinet starting tomorrow, putting the pace of Biden's transition ahead of Trump's from four years ago.

[287] Obviously, this is not going to be the same kind of inauguration we've had in the past.

[288] In an interview with ABC on Sunday, Biden's incoming chief of staff, Ron Clean, said that planning for the inauguration was well underway, but acknowledged that it would be a different kind of ceremony, given the pandemic.

[289] We know people want to celebrate.

[290] There is something here to celebrate.

[291] We just want to try to find a way to do it as safely as possible.

[292] That's it for the daily.

[293] I'm Michael Mabarro.

[294] See you tomorrow.