How to Win Games and Beat People (Rebroadcast)

[0] Hey there, it's Stephen Dubner.

[1] There's a pretty good chance that you or someone you love is recently received or given some sort of game as a holiday gift.

[2] If so, there is probably an even better chance that the playing of said game will ultimately lead to competitive urges that had been capably subdued to that point.

[3] It will perhaps even lead to tears.

[4] No one likes to lose.

[5] Wouldn't you like to avoid the tears of defeat?

[6] The following episode will help you do that.

[7] It's called How to Win Games and Beat People.

[8] It was part of our Self -improvement Month series from 2016.

[9] We've updated it slightly.

[10] If you want to hear the rest of the series, our podcast archive is at Stitcher or Freakonomics .com.

[11] Thanks for listening and good luck.

[12] It's an activity that seems to be eternal and universal.

[13] We do know that board games are just about as old as civilization itself and human beings.

[14] It's an activity.

[15] that is inherently communal.

[16] They're here four nights a week playing this card game that's been around since I was a kid.

[17] And it's an activity in which the mere participation brings joy, regardless of outcome.

[18] Right?

[19] Losers look for joy.

[20] I look for victory.

[21] Ah, victory.

[22] Well, if that's how you feel, then this is the episode for you.

[23] How to win games and beat people.

[24] because winning feels like this.

[25] From Stitcher and Dubner Productions, this is Freakonomics Radio, the podcast that explores the hidden side of everything.

[26] Here's your host, Stephen Dubner.

[27] I love to play games.

[28] There, I said it.

[29] For a long time, I was afraid to admit how much I like playing games because it seems a bit childish.

[30] And as adults, we are encouraged to do away with childish things.

[31] But you know what?

[32] I've changed my mind because playing games means that you're taking part in the glorious progression in civilization.

[33] My favorite game, for instance, is Backgammon.

[34] So Backgammon is a great example of a game that has ancient roots, in this case Greek.

[35] And that is...

[36] Mary Palan, I'm the author of The Monopolis, a book about the secret history of the board game Monopoly.

[37] Palin knows the history of other games as well.

[38] Okay.

[39] So Senate goes back to Egypt, to Egypt, around 3 ,500 B. B .C. Go and Liubo, which are Chinese games, also go back to the earliest known civilization.

[40] Ur.

[41] That goes back to Mesopotamia.

[42] Parchese goes back to India.

[43] Dice.

[44] Mesopotamian.

[45] Fat -Gammon, Byzantine Greece, Czechers, ancient Egypt, and then, of course, Monopoly in 1904.

[46] And a whole bunch of other stuff in between.

[47] Gameplaying boomed in America.

[48] Much of the boom emanated from Massachusetts, which was home to both the Parker Brothers and Milton Bradley Company.

[49] Boston had a lot to do with it.

[50] It was a major port.

[51] It was a major shipping hub.

[52] So a lot of these games that had ancient roots were coming through via the sailors and folks on ships.

[53] In the U .S., ancient games were modernized, new ones were invented, and history itself conspired to create demand.

[54] So first of all, you have electric lighting.

[55] Now you could play games at night.

[56] Also, child labor was going out of fashion.

[57] We start seeing laws that allow for children to go to school.

[58] Just across the board, you have a rise in leisure time.

[59] Board games become part of a lifestyle that previous generations wouldn't have even conceived of.

[60] Fast forward now a few more generations.

[61] Newer games allow more, this is more creativity, there's more strategy.

[62] Like, the classic games are fun, but it's like Monopoly or like shoots and ladders.

[63] Eventually, you're just rolling a dice.

[64] Something happens and that's it.

[65] That's Martin Walker.

[66] Walker is a grad student in Knoxville, Tennessee.

[67] Today, he's visiting New York, and he's at a board game cafe in Greenwich Village.

[68] called the Uncommon's.

[69] With his wife, Jenny Chin, and a friend, they are playing a game called...

[70] Takanoko.

[71] Takenoko.

[72] It is a map -building, bamboo -growing, panda -eating board game.

[73] Jenny, I will slay you.

[74] I just started this game, and I will slay you.

[75] Let's see about that.

[76] We'll see.

[77] We're going to find out this one.

[78] Is that a competition, and it's not really a group work thing?

[79] We're just...

[80] We're each helping to grow a farm, but we're also taking advantage of what they've built and taking it from them.

[81] It's kind of similar to settlers of Catan.

[82] Yeah, you're building the same map, but you have your own agenda.

[83] It's horrible.

[84] Greg May is the founder of the Uncomons.

[85] I've always loved board games, and I've always felt like there needed to be a place, a sort of home for games in New York City.

[86] So that's what he started, with a collection of nearly 1 ,000 board games.

[87] board games.

[88] Camel up to Abyss, Net Runner to Five Tribes, classics like Operation and Mousetrap, heroes of Normandy or merchants of Venus, almost a dozen different versions of Dominion, Star Wars, Lord of the Rain, Walking Dead.

[89] We have games for quilters like quilt show, trivia games like Wits and Wagers, games like Pandemic.

[90] There's been this explosion and growth in games that weren't around when I was a kid.

[91] I've designed bad medicine, which is a party game, where the players are all pharmaceutical companies making horrible drugs.

[92] That's Gil Hova.

[93] He is a board game designer and publisher who lives in Jersey City.

[94] I usually drop by here just to see how things are going, what people are playing, what's been selling, that sort of thing.

[95] I have a game coming out later this year called The Networks, where the players are all running television networks, starting with three horrible public access shows and slowly improving their network over five seasons.

[96] The business has been incredible.

[97] I'm almost sold out of bad medicine at this point, point out of my entire print run, and I raised over $100 ,000 on Kickstarter for the networks.

[98] That is a true fact, and Hova is not the only game designer crowdfunding his work.

[99] Kickstarter has an entire division dedicated to games.

[100] Since 2009, nearly $1 billion has been pledged to games.

[101] A lot of these are video games, not old -fashioned board games.

[102] And before you get too excited about some board game renaissance, consider the sales numbers on board games versus video games.

[103] Board game and puzzle sales in the United States bring in about $2 billion a year.

[104] Video game sales total $36 billion a year.

[105] So for every dollar we spend on board games and puzzles, we spend roughly $18 on video games.

[106] In any case, the instinct to play some kind of a game with some kind of opponent is extraordinarily common and long -lived.

[107] Just about every civilization with dates that go way, way, way, way back, they were playing games.

[108] Mary Pallon again.

[109] Some of them were race games, so that's kind of what you think of a path with little markers that you'd move, you know, trying to get ahead of an opponent, some of them were more strategy -based.

[110] Some mimic the world that was around them and have warfare as a theme or religion is a huge recurring theme in early games.

[111] And often games were used by religious leaders as a way of fortune -telling, but also winners of games often had kind of a spiritual aura about them because they were able to win something that combined luck and skill.

[112] Pallon herself is a gamer.

[113] So my family has taken to playing Settlers of Catan at holidays, and it's an extremely popular game.

[114] It came out of Germany, like a lot of really fantastic games do.

[115] There's many things I love about it, but it turns us into animals.

[116] It brings out the best and worst of us, including particularly the adults.

[117] At least at one Thanksgiving, there had to be a handwritten apology note, their accusations of theft.

[118] It really gets extreme, but it's a great way for everybody to get together.

[119] Some people, like I've heard some families, they get together at family gatherings, and they think, this will be pleasant, we'll play a few games, and we'll have a lovely evening.

[120] And I find it extraordinary.

[121] Now I'd like you to meet Tom Whipple.

[122] We'll get to his CV shortly.

[123] I have an early memory from when I was nine or ten, and we were gathered.

[124] with the extended family and we're playing game.

[125] I can't even remember the game.

[126] But what I do remember is that my uncle Terry, when he beat me, this nine -year -old who had seen grow up and played with his kids, he stood up, he jumped on the sofa and he pointed at me. And with each point and each bounce of him on the sofa, he says, I win, you lose.

[127] I win, you lose.

[128] And that sort of taught me that, you know, I suppose the morality of game playing that I've taken with me. It's about I win.

[129] and you lose.

[130] So I suppose this book was an attempt to codify that in such a way that I can eventually beat Terry.

[131] Whipple has written a book titled How to Win Games and Beat People.

[132] In his day job, he is the science editor for the Times in London.

[133] I mean, editor is a very grandiose title.

[134] There are two of us who cover Science for the Times, and we try to read the major journals, nature, cell, science, and see what the interesting and important science stories of the day are, and then we try to make them accessible in 600 or fewer words for the public.

[135] And are you, or have you ever been a scientist yourself?

[136] I am a mathematician by training.

[137] I studied for a math degree, and then I left, possibly because I discovered I wasn't as good at calculus as I was at writing about things, but I try not to let scientists know that I'm a mathematician because then they don't talk to me like I'm an idiot and you want them to talk to you like I want them to talk to me like an idiot particularly if I'm at Cern or somewhere like that as we mentioned the title of Whipple's book is how to win games and beat people nothing particularly bloodthirsty about that but the subtitle defeat and demolish your friends and family I was hoping this is going to sound terrible I gather if you still want to beat Terry that he's alive I was hoping he met a grisly death after doing that to you.

[138] Terry is alive and he is aware that I'm on my way to take the advice in this book and try to get my own back because it's been a long time coming.

[139] Today, how to win any game, if not with grace necessarily, with Tom Whipple as our guide and his book as our Bible.

[140] Really, the premise for it, I suppose the elevator pitch was it's preposterously overqualified people advising on games.

[141] So I have a special forces soldier on pillow fighting, and I have a structural engineer on Jenga and games theorists all over the place.

[142] But let me ask you, I guess, an obviously paradoxical question about your mission here.

[143] Let's say if I'm the only one who reads the book and I learn how to win every game, then I plainly have an advantage.

[144] But then if you read the book as well, then you have it, have that same advantage.

[145] And then the game theory puzzle becomes a very, very different one, doesn't not?

[146] I mean, it's, yes, you've described sort of a meta game theory problem.

[147] It's sort of game theory about a book about game theory.

[148] How many people read my book before it's a failure?

[149] I'll just say, like, I mean, I think both my agent and publisher would agree with this.

[150] I'm very happy to take that risk.

[151] If enough people are prepared to buy my book, I would consider that I've won a completely different game, which is the game to get a house in Kensington.

[152] Let's take Jenga.

[153] First of all, describe why you went to a structural engineer to figure out the best way to win at the game.

[154] I spoke to a structural engineer who spent a lot of the time talking about how he likes to beat architects at Jenga, because his fundamental hypothesis was they can do all of their fancy drawings, but he can play Jenga.

[155] But actually the most interesting person was a woman who invented it, I spoke to.

[156] And she said that when she plays Jenga with people, she's often accused of cheating because she likes to put her elbow against the tower when she's pulling out the blocks to stabilize it.

[157] And people say, you can't do this.

[158] And she says, well, look, I invented the game.

[159] There's only three rules.

[160] You can only use one hand.

[161] You can only take out one block at the time.

[162] And if that block touches the floor, then it's over.

[163] And her other tactic was, I don't know if you've played with those annoying people who aren't trying to get this as high as possible.

[164] And instead of taking ones from the outside, the ones on either side, they take the one from the middle, which means that rows then useless to you.

[165] You can't move any more.

[166] What she'd do is she pinch the ones on the outside, the one on the left and one of the right, and move them together so that she can then take one of them out and get another piece of value out of that row.

[167] And again, she says, you know, people say I'm cheating.

[168] For the beloved sport of stone skipping, also known as stone skimming, Whipple spoke with a guy called Kurt Steiner, who had a relatively simple goal in life.

[169] He said to his wife, I want to quit my job to become the world's best stone skimmer.

[170] And for five years he trained.

[171] But the interesting thing about this was, there's a lot of theory on this.

[172] It's a standard undergraduate physics problem.

[173] And I was going to go to one of these physics professors to find out from them what the optimal way of throwing a stone is.

[174] And they all agree on the angles and the velocities and the spins and all of this.

[175] And they get their undergraduates to work it out.

[176] And obviously the problem with that, as I know well, having studied maths, is that there are angles, velocities and spins are all based upon a perfectly spherical stone in a frictionless environment that does all these things.

[177] And actually what Kurt Steiner discovered was that none of it was true.

[178] And it's one of these wonderful things where you think science is so advanced that, you know, normal people can't do anything about it.

[179] but he's definitively proved all this science wrong because he got 88 stone skims.

[180] And does that make him something like a world champion?

[181] I think it exceeded the previous one by more than 20.

[182] I mean, essentially he stopped counting.

[183] The YouTube clip is up, and I'd urge everyone to Google it, because this is his Sistine Chapel.

[184] I mean, he's given this gift to the world of this stone that just floats along the lake.

[185] It's absolutely extraordinary.

[186] And the way he did it was he aims, Rather than the physics, which says you throw in at an angle, it comes out at that angle, he throws at about 30 degrees, and he throws so fast.

[187] 30 degrees down or up?

[188] 30 degrees angle to the horizontal.

[189] What would look like straight into the water?

[190] It would be pretty close to straight, but he throws it so fast.

[191] What he does is he moves his entire body, so he swivels his shoulder.

[192] And he's got colleagues in the profession who have sporting injuries as a consequence of doing stone skipping.

[193] where he swiveles his whole shoulder back and brings his arm and it's almost like a whip and then all of the movement goes into the very tip of his arm and out goes the stone as fast and with as much spin as possible and yeah it goes almost it looks like he's going almost directly down into the water except by the time it hits the water it's not going directly down and then it comes out at about five degrees okay so here's the thing most people listening to this probably are not going to take up stone skipping only because it requires a lot of things, you know, the water, the stones, an arm, a fair bit of lunacy and so on.

[194] But many, many people who listen to this do routinely play games with their friends, family, people they love, people they might not love so much.

[195] And I would like to propose that you and I, right now, on the radio, play a few of these games against each other and see how it works out.

[196] Are you up for that, Tom?

[197] I'm absolutely up for that.

[198] I asked you to prepare a little bit by bringing into the studio a couple of the games that I've brought into the studio.

[199] And I do want to make an admission to you, which is as a professional, I have not acted professionally here in that typically I would read the book, or at least most of the book, of the person I'm interviewing.

[200] And in this case, I purposely did not read it because I did not want to know your secrets.

[201] Yes.

[202] So let me apologize for not having read your book yet.

[203] That's fine.

[204] I mean, this slightly fills me with dread because it makes it all the more embarrassing when I lose.

[205] Well, that was kind of my idea, Tom.

[206] I was thinking that if I could maybe beat you, so I thought we'd play four games.

[207] And I thought if I could beat you at one where you have the optimal strategy for all four, that a one in three record might make me look a little bit like a hero.

[208] As game theorists call it, I think that would be our Nash equilibrium.

[209] because if I can only lose on one, then I'll be very happy as well.

[210] So how would you feel about one victory and one draw for me?

[211] Would that push us over into the hero category for me or not quite?

[212] Well, if we're going to do games like rock, paper, scissors, then there's an element of chance that I can always blame.

[213] I can always say it's only going to be 60 % in my favor.

[214] Already blaming with the chance.

[215] I've got to get the excuses in early, yeah.

[216] Coming up on Freakonomics Radio, I quickly accomplish my first goal, getting in Tom Whipple's head.

[217] You've got nothing to lose in this.

[218] It's me who's got the entire reputation of my publishing future.

[219] But soon, he recaptures the psychological high ground.

[220] See, you began that by saying, because I'm your friends.

[221] So I think you're just trying to gain my trust so that you can lie.

[222] And we have to work out some ground rules for rock paper scissors.

[223] It sounds like what baboons do with their bottoms.

[224] Tom Whipple, the author of How to Win Games and Beat People, has agreed to play four games with me. I have prepared by not reading his book.

[225] What you're about to hear is a substantially edited version of our battle, because it took more than two hours to play.

[226] And I don't think even the most devoted Freakonomics radio listener is interested in listening to two grown men play board games for two hours.

[227] Whipple was in a radio studio in London.

[228] I was in a studio in New York.

[229] I thought that we could begin with Connect 4.

[230] Does that work with you?

[231] Yeah.

[232] Now, I should also say that in anticipation of this Game Fest, we've brought a couple participants into the studio here to act as, well, maybe referees, because we want to make sure that, no offense to you, but I cheat a lot at everything.

[233] Well, the point of this game is, I think, oh, this book is that we shouldn't really trust each other and we're all out to win, so, no, I understand.

[234] Well said, yeah.

[235] Okay.

[236] So I've got here, Irva Gunja.

[237] Irva, can you just say hello?

[238] Hello.

[239] And Irva, is there anything you can say in a sentence or two that, you know, do want to take a pledge of honesty as a moderator referee?

[240] I will take that pledge.

[241] I also brought with me my iPhone so I can record anything if we need it for the record.

[242] And I also have a very official referee's whistle here.

[243] Let's hear it.

[244] Now, I just have to say, Tom, I didn't know about the camera.

[245] So my strategy needs to change very rapidly.

[246] And Tom, do you have somebody there with you in London?

[247] Yeah, I have if Molly will say hello.

[248] Hi, Molly.

[249] So, Tom, you apparently know how to win at this every time, presuming you go first, I understand, correct?

[250] Well, yeah.

[251] It is possible to win every time presuming you go first.

[252] That's been proven by computer.

[253] And I know a very good strategy for ensuring that so long as no one makes any stupid mistakes along the way, you always win.

[254] if you go first, and probably if you go second.

[255] But it depends upon my ability and your ability not to make stupid mistakes along the way.

[256] So I guess I should let you go first then.

[257] You go first, and then I've got something more to blame.

[258] Okay, you want to play yellow or red?

[259] I'll play yellow.

[260] Whipple and I each had a board in the studio with us, but because we couldn't see each other's board, we agreed to label the boards so we could replicate each other's moves.

[261] So we labeled the X axis with the numbers 1 through 7 from left to right, and the y -axis with the letters A through F from bottom to top.

[262] I'm going to take what I think is the obvious right move and drop it in the center, which is column four, which goes all the way down to row A. I will go directly on top of you with my yellow.

[263] All right, so I have only two options, I think, sensible options, but maybe you've got me overthinking my Connect four strategy.

[264] I think you may be overthinking.

[265] I'm very pleased that I phased you out already.

[266] You've totally psyched me out.

[267] You're in my head.

[268] I will drop what I think is an obvious one, column three down all the way to the bottom to row A. So I'll put mine down in column five.

[269] Well, then I would be an idiot.

[270] I think you'll tell me not to go for A2, but I'm considering B3.

[271] If I were playing with a child, I would definitely go for A2 because three in a row looks good, even though I know you'll block me. All right, so I'm going to go for B3.

[272] Okay.

[273] Yeah.

[274] Then, oh, no!

[275] I don't think we're there yet.

[276] Oh, but just the...

[277] I love the panic in your voice just already.

[278] Yeah, just so you know, that was not fake panic.

[279] That was real panic.

[280] Well, you've got nothing to lose in this.

[281] It's me who's got the entire reputation of my publishing future.

[282] Not to instill you with more fear, but...

[283] Oh, great.

[284] But what I found really interesting was that this was a tactic used by Beyoncé on Kanye West in Connect 4.

[285] And I, I mean, we're on the side of Beyonce here, is all I am.

[286] I'm Kanye then?

[287] Oh, yeah.

[288] Yeah, I think you're Kanye.

[289] Who won?

[290] Well, Beyonce.

[291] Did she go first?

[292] Everything you've heard of the Fisher Spaskey chess match.

[293] I have.

[294] This was the equivalent in Connect 4.

[295] It was, at least, according to Showbiz Press, and I mean, if you can't believe the Showbiz Press, then Where are we in the world?

[296] Kanye West, Jay -Z, and Beyoncé were backstage in 2009.

[297] And what do the three biggest names in world music do in the backstage?

[298] Well, they had a Connect Four tournament.

[299] And Kanye West, who describes himself in his music as God's Vessel, lost 8 -1 to Beyonce.

[300] Oh, that's an argument for atheism right there.

[301] She is indeed my inspiration for this game.

[302] So you're not channeling math.

[303] addition, you're channeling Beyonce, which is a much more formidable force.

[304] Exactly, yeah.

[305] I mean, you don't argue with Beyonce Niles.

[306] Our Connect 4 match went on and on for the next 20 minutes.

[307] I'm going to go 4C.

[308] I am going to go to block off your potential three in a row on the bottom.

[309] You know, I'll be honest with you.

[310] If I look at this as an amateur, which I am, looks to me like Red's winning.

[311] That three in a row worries me quite a lot.

[312] Question, has the publisher already written you the check?

[313] The check has come and gone and been spent.

[314] So we're all right.

[315] We're all right.

[316] Until we were down to an inevitable finish.

[317] All the slots have been filled except for column two.

[318] It is now Whipple's turn and he will be forced to play 2B.

[319] It's doom, isn't it?

[320] At least you're losing with humour.

[321] And I really only have one move and it happens to be a winning move.

[322] And are you going to claim the five in the row or the four in the row diagonally that gives you?

[323] I am going to claim Connect 9.

[324] It's Game Dubner.

[325] Oh dear, it's not good for Blighty.

[326] Tom, plainly, I stumbled into a lucky progression there and happened to beat you.

[327] Well, that's very sweet for you to say I stumbled.

[328] But what I will say in my defense, in some sense, what we just had is the classic Connect Four games.

[329] Sometimes you'll lose because someone will spot a cunning little fork or you won't spot that someone's got three in a row.

[330] But often you end up filling it up and then you are forced in the last column to make a play that you know is going to give your opponent victory.

[331] It's a German word Zugswang.

[332] Have you come across this?

[333] I haven't.

[334] I like it, huh?

[335] The Germans have a word for everything.

[336] And it's not surprising that maybe in the milieu of Central European politics they had this word because it's a word that means being forced to do something that will guarantee your enemy victory.

[337] Oh, I do Zugswing every day.

[338] I have to say.

[339] I'm glad to know there's a word for it.

[340] Well, there you go.

[341] So that sucks.

[342] We mentioned the epic struggle between Kanye West and Beyonce Knowles.

[343] What was also reported at the time was that the reason she won was because she had read the master's thesis of a guy called Victor Alice.

[344] Now, obviously, I could have interviewed Kanye West for my book.

[345] I could have interviewed Beyonce Knowles, but why interview either of them when I can go to a Dutch computer scientist called Victor Alice.

[346] He had designed a program that always played the optimal move in Connect 4 and it knew it'd been proven mathematically to be perfect.

[347] There are four and a half trillion different combinations in Connect 4.

[348] But what he said to me is he was a sort of relatively keen player and he says that I bet you've lost games of Connect 4 where you feel that was just bad luck.

[349] And I suppose before I'd spoken to him, I could have put what happened to us down to bad luck as opposed to extremely bad play on my part and he says it's not bad luck it is not bad luck when you put that there when you're forced into zugswang because actually if you go first you will be in the situation where you will find that final four in the row you've got these three dangling waiting to be filled and you'll find that the final four in the row it will be completed on an odd row if you go second it will be completed on an even row and that's exactly what we found if i did a three in a ready for completion on an even row by the end of that game, I would have won, but you had won on row number three, and you won, and that's why.

[350] All right, now let's, shall we disgorge our checkers?

[351] Because that's always been, to me, the most fun part of me for it.

[352] I'm going to have to bow out.

[353] I'm really sorry, I've got to go.

[354] That's okay, Molly.

[355] It's our fault.

[356] Thanks very much, Molly.

[357] Thank you very much.

[358] It was really lovely.

[359] It was really good fun.

[360] Good luck with the next one.

[361] Thank you very much.

[362] So we lost our London Observer, but Having one victory in hand, I wasn't too worried.

[363] Our next game was Hangman.

[364] We would play two rounds, one with Whipple guessing my word, one with me guessing his.

[365] The guesser could guess ten wrong letters before being hung, representing the head, torso, two arms, two legs, the rope, and three lines for the gallows themselves.

[366] So all I need to know is how many letters?

[367] Okay, and I'll tell you there are four letters.

[368] Now tell me immediately, is that a good thing to go short or bad?

[369] Oh, yeah, it's a very good thing to go short.

[370] All right, go for it.

[371] So, A. That is a miss. Nine guesses remain.

[372] That is a miss. I'm going to go down the vowels on this, but you don't always.

[373] So I'm going to go E. That is a mess.

[374] Eight guesses remain.

[375] Oh, you have done something with a Y or something, haven't you?

[376] Or have I?

[377] Exactly.

[378] Well, I can do nothing but stick to my strategy.

[379] So I'm going to go for an O. That is a hit.

[380] You've got an O in the second spot, four letters.

[381] The second letter is an O. Okay.

[382] And so now I'm going to shift it.

[383] That was my attack, my sort of basic attack strategy.

[384] So now I'm going to hear through a T. Beautiful guess.

[385] That is a miss. That is a miss. Seven guesses remain.

[386] Seven guesses remain.

[387] We don't even have the gallows built yet, but soon we get to your body.

[388] I'm going to go for an S. It's a negatory, Batman.

[389] The gallows are complete.

[390] The gallows are complete.

[391] Oh, Gossier, you're marching me towards my doom.

[392] I am going to go for, um, R. Another miss. Five guesses remain.

[393] If I wanted to march you toward your doom, I'd just challenge you to know their game of Connect 4, no offense.

[394] Yeah, okay.

[395] And at this point, I'm going to have to think, I've got to take the strategy that you're being tricky and you've gone for something like a J. The first letter is a J. So you have a J, the second letter is an O, and two blanks.

[396] Five guesses left.

[397] Well, I am going to go four.

[398] It's a good question.

[399] So you now.

[400] Now I'm looking at what words actually work.

[401] I can't imagine there are that many four -letter words starting with J -O, right?

[402] Well, this is, this is completely sort of, so I'm thinking Jowl.

[403] And that's Game Whipple.

[404] Beautifully done.

[405] Tom Whipple.

[406] Oh, you're just overpraising it after the Connect 4 disaster.

[407] I'm not.

[408] I'm really impressed.

[409] Jowl, I thought it was a good word.

[410] Jowl is a really good word.

[411] And you emerged with everything but your head intact, which is, you know, something.

[412] So that was really well done.

[413] So you just proved that from the guessers perspective, you had a strategy that happened to work beautifully there.

[414] Could I learn that strategy as well pretty quickly?

[415] Quite boringly, there's a table in my book, which got the first letter on the board.

[416] The strategy for this, I should say, I spoke to Nick Berry, who's a data scientist at Facebook, who looks into these things in a spare time.

[417] And what he said to me was, Tom, I bet you think you're good at Hangman.

[418] you're not and then he said people you think that are you know they're good at hanging around the more naive ones what they guessed first is vowels which is indeed what i used to do so i was at the lowest level of sophistication on his strategy and then he said if you get a bit more sophisticated you learn about um letter frequency analysis this is the it actually started in bagdad in the ninth century there was a guy who went through the Quran and wrote down every guy called al -kindi he wrote down the frequency that every single letter popped up and he didn't just do this for fun he did it because cryptography at the time that was almost always based on letter substitution so for instance you'd change the word cat to you'd add one to each letters you'd change the word cat to uh db u and then you'd send your letter and he realized that if he knew that a particular letter popped up more and he'd a big enough corpus of data to decode he could begin to work out which letters were which so he blew apart cryptography by doing this so from that we have the basic letter frequency in the english language and he said well i bet you think this is makes you sophisticated and then he said well actually it's not because if you think about it in hangman um what you've got is a lot of words you'd never use a lot of the most common words you'd never use the word a in hangman you'd never use word and or of or thee i mean if you i don't know if you if you if you play hangman with someone who puts down the word the, then that really is a time to reconsider your friendships.

[419] And so then he produced a different letter frequency of the words in the English language excluding those.

[420] So previously it was E -T -A -O -I -N.

[421] And if you get rid of those words, you're left with E -S for sugar, I -A -R -N.

[422] So that's the optimal kind of first -guessing streak, yes?

[423] No, because then he said, you've forgotten about the amount of information you've been given.

[424] I've just been told that this is a four -letter word.

[425] Well, the frequency of letters in four -letter words is completely different.

[426] Think about it.

[427] Think of all the endings that you can't have.

[428] You can't have the I -N -G ending.

[429] You can't have the T -I -O -N ending.

[430] It would be mad if the letter frequency in four -letter words is the same as the letter frequency in the English language.

[431] So actually, the most common letter in four -letter words is A, but the most common letter in five -letter words is S. It's E in six -letter words, and it's I in 13 -letter words.

[432] Once you land the first letter, then you reassess the kind of word that you're thinking about, or no?

[433] Well, yeah, so his whole principle behind this, which I certainly subscribe to, is the really key thing is to get that first letter.

[434] And so if you've, let's say, as was the case for this, it's a four -letter word, and I've guessed A, because that's the most common letter in four -letter words, well, if that doesn't come up, you've just changed a search space again.

[435] The frequency of letters in four -letter words that don't include the letter A is completely different.

[436] So that's your tax strategy for getting the first letter.

[437] And then obviously you could extend this if you had a lot of time on your hands, but then I just went back to the letter frequency in the English language.

[438] Then I went to the letter frequency for silly buggers and just decided to go J. So I went a bit off -piece there.

[439] All right.

[440] That was very stressful, though.

[441] That was fun.

[442] Can we play another?

[443] I'm sweating.

[444] Yeah.

[445] So I've got a three -letter one up on my end of things.

[446] All right.

[447] So I'm going to use your chart because that's what it's for.

[448] And I see that if I have a three -letter word, the optimal calling order is A -E -O -I -U -Y -H -B -C -K.

[449] So I'd be a fool to ignore your advice except for the fact that you wrote the advice.

[450] Well, exactly.

[451] So I have to think that you would have been thinking, well, of course he's going to call A. because it says A right there.

[452] And therefore, why would you put an A in?

[453] Especially when I told you I was going to use your advice.

[454] And then I think, well, is he the kind of person who would go to the second most frequent or maybe the third or maybe even the sixth?

[455] Or I could have just done cat because I just thought you to think this way.

[456] Oh, once again, you're deep inside my head.

[457] I would like to call why.

[458] Why is not on it.

[459] Y is a miss, nine guesses remain.

[460] O. O is not in it.

[461] Dubner has eight guesses left.

[462] A. A is the second letter.

[463] Oh, so you went easy on me. Either that or you thought you were pulling the double switcheroo, because A is the first letter in the optimal calling order.

[464] I've forgotten how many switcherues were on now.

[465] Now I think it calls for some psychoanalysis.

[466] So, what do you have for breakfast today, Tom?

[467] I had toast and bagels.

[468] Was there jam on your toast?

[469] I couldn't imagine where you were going.

[470] Yes, there was lashings of jam on my toast.

[471] I'm not familiar with the word lashings, but I'm focusing on the jam.

[472] Do you have pets at home?

[473] I have pet tortoises.

[474] Hmm, but no feline -type pets.

[475] No. How do you feel about feline -tight pets?

[476] I'm ambivalent towards feline -type pets.

[477] C. That's the first one.

[478] T?

[479] I think that would be the one I was going for, I think a treble switcheroo, I'm telling you it was cat.

[480] The minute you said you were ambivalent, because can I tell you why, nobody's ambivalent about cats.

[481] You either love cats or you hate cats.

[482] You're right.

[483] You've got my tell.

[484] You've got my tell.

[485] So Hangman ended in a draw.

[486] He won his round.

[487] I won mine, which meant I'd already achieved my goal of one victory and one draw in four games against the game expert, meaning I could.

[488] could afford to lose the last two games, which was fortunate because, well, here we go.

[489] How about we play Battleship?

[490] Let's do Battleship.

[491] Is there a large advantage to going first?

[492] I don't think anyone's particularly done the maths on it, but I don't think it's huge.

[493] All right, Tom, you can go first then.

[494] Okay, I'm going to stick it right in the middle at E5.

[495] And that is a hit.

[496] Congratulations.

[497] Thank you very much.

[498] So I know that you like to go in the middle as an aggressor, but obviously you know that as an aggressor, it's a good idea to go in the middle, so maybe you wouldn't have put a ship there.

[499] On the other hand, you know that I did not know the E5, and you gave me cat for hangman.

[500] So I'll say E6.

[501] Okay, E6 is happily a miss. So now I'm on my hunting strategy, and I just know that there's a ship either side of this.

[502] So I am going to go for E4.

[503] E4, sadly, is a miss. Okay.

[504] H2.

[505] H2 is a miss. Going to work round D5.

[506] D5 would be a Mississippi.

[507] I will next choose I -10.

[508] I -10 is also a miss. Now, you did lay ships down on the board, correct?

[509] Rather, you have a photograph to prove.

[510] it.

[511] E6.

[512] That would be a hit.

[513] So Whipple has two hits.

[514] Dubner has none.

[515] I don't know if that was necessary here, but it lowered my self -esteem here.

[516] B -1.

[517] B -1 is A -miss.

[518] Now the question is whether with E -7 I will have sunk your battleship.

[519] A -Hit.

[520] Oh, it's a big one.

[521] That's three hits.

[522] No ship sunk.

[523] A -8.

[524] A -8 is I'm sorry to say a miss. Not that sorry.

[525] I'm not sorry at all.

[526] Delighted.

[527] Okay, E -8.

[528] Hit and sunk.

[529] So here's how I feel.

[530] You've had six guesses and you've already sunk my battleship.

[531] And I've had five guesses and I don't have a single hit.

[532] But I'm going to tell you, I don't feel that badly yet because finding the big ships is easier than finding the small ships.

[533] So I'm going to take some solace in that.

[534] Yeah.

[535] Is that a false sense of solace?

[536] No, no. I think that's completely fair enough.

[537] It feels more, you know, it feels like a great victory when you sink the aircraft carrier.

[538] But in sort of, well, as in almost every.

[539] every way this is not analogous to naval warfare.

[540] There's not really not a single way in which this relates to real battleships.

[541] J3.

[542] J3 is a miss. H7.

[543] H7 would be a miss. Okay.

[544] Tom, close your ears for a minute.

[545] They're closed.

[546] Dear listener, his H7 was disastrously close to two ships.

[547] Thank God.

[548] C -10.

[549] Again a miss. H -5.

[550] An interesting choice.

[551] It is, however, also a miss. Hey, Tom, close your ears for 35 seconds or so.

[552] 35 seconds.

[553] Okay, that's coming off.

[554] Dear listener, that was unbelievably close.

[555] Again, thank God.

[556] Hey, Tom?

[557] Yeah.

[558] All right, so I'm still seeking my first hit.

[559] I'm doing very not well.

[560] And I feel like I have a strategy that is either not working or just not yet.

[561] So I'm going to stick with it for a little longer, and I'll say F1.

[562] F1 is a miss. F5.

[563] F5 is a miss. J7.

[564] J7 is a miss. So I've got to wonder now, I've really scattered the board.

[565] 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 scattered guesses and not a single hit, and I can't remember ever playing 10 single first guesses and not a single hit.

[566] So I've got to think that maybe, rather than scattering, you're maybe clustering, and there's a quadrant that I just haven't wandered into where I'll find the mother load.

[567] Would the quadrant include H8?

[568] It would not.

[569] Again, you did put ships on the board, yes?

[570] There are ships, there are photographs to prove it.

[571] They're just using their British pluck to evade your artillery.

[572] F8.

[573] Hit and sunk.

[574] You sunk my three -hole ship.

[575] So you've now sunk a four and a three -hole ship.

[576] three.

[577] So I can tell you because you're my friend, because I think you're going to beat me anyway.

[578] I'm worried about my strategy now.

[579] Do you understand why I'm worried besides the fact that I'm behind?

[580] Is it because you've been putting ships next to each other?

[581] Yes.

[582] Thinking that I would...

[583] Confound me with it.

[584] Confound you.

[585] But if indeed I've done that consistently, then the confounding will come to a crashing hall.

[586] But see, you began that by saying, because I'm your friends.

[587] So I think you're just trying to gain my trust so that you can lie.

[588] I appreciate your thinking of me as strategically as that and as nastily as that.

[589] Clearly, my strategy was a hard failure and embarrassment.

[590] I did finally get a few hits, including Whipple's Destroyer, and that's the ship with just two holes, the hardest one to find.

[591] So you've got rid of my most valuable ship.

[592] All right.

[593] Well, that's something.

[594] so people who play this competitively which are vanishingly few would not generally put many ships on the outside of the board why's that well because if you think about the hunt strategies so once you've targeted it once you've hit someone's ship you then have to look at the four squares either side of that hit to see which way the ship's going to see if it's going up, down, left, right.

[595] If you've got it on the edge of the board, you've immediately put it in the situation.

[596] And for exactly the same reason, you know, ideally you wouldn't put ships next to each other because then there's a chance in hitting one that just in your search strategy, you're going to get a hit on two.

[597] Now, because that's a strategy, obviously you then have to mitigate it, which is why I put one of mine on the edge of the board, because, you know, But if people know that it's bad to them on the edge of the board, then it's sometimes you want to mess around with them and put some on the edge of the board.

[598] So it sounds as though you're saying that your planting strategy, you're setting up ship strategy, is to place them what seems to be randomly.

[599] Yeah.

[600] While avoiding the edges.

[601] Semi -randomely, avoiding the edges, avoiding putting them together, but occasionally putting them together and putting them on the edges.

[602] If that doesn't sound too ludicrous.

[603] Yeah, yeah.

[604] No, that makes sense.

[605] That's a kind of, right, an 80 -20 -ish kind of rule.

[606] Okay.

[607] I'm going to take a punt on you having some mad psychology with this, and I'm going to go for I -9.

[608] Oh, no!

[609] That was a very good hit.

[610] Very good hit.

[611] Tom Whipple.

[612] Excellent.

[613] Well...

[614] Well, you've won.

[615] Well, we're not there yet.

[616] No, no, no, I can't, because mathematically...

[617] No, no, I've won.

[618] You're right.

[619] Yeah, I've won.

[620] All right.

[621] Let me try it at least find your battleship, because that is the name of the game.

[622] so I will call it G9 G9 is a hit there we go well it's an honorable end well again Pyrick victories are victories in some fashion your fleet equipped itself well j9 hit and sunk to the winner Tom Whipple congratulations well played you too I'm so shamefully embarrassed by my horrible play here But hopefully it can help another player win another day.

[623] Yeah, it's demonstrated a point.

[624] You're a cautionary tale in battleship.

[625] It was time for our final game of the day.

[626] Rock paper scissors.

[627] We agreed to play best of nine throws.

[628] We used to say rock paper scissors says shoot.

[629] That's our rhythm.

[630] But tell me what you do.

[631] I know you do one, two, three, and then present.

[632] You don't say shoot, though.

[633] Very pacifist version of rock paper scissors.

[634] One, two, three, present.

[635] It sounds like, we're not.

[636] what baboons do with their bottoms, doesn't it?

[637] So you're running the show here.

[638] So we'll say, one, two, three, present is what we're going to say?

[639] Yeah.

[640] All right, and we'll say it the same.

[641] Are you ready to play then?

[642] Okay, let's do it.

[643] Okay, so let me just say something before we go.

[644] On the first throw, I'm throwing rock.

[645] Okay, ready?

[646] Okay, let's do it.

[647] One, two, three, present.

[648] Paper.

[649] Rock.

[650] A win for Tom.

[651] Win for Tom, and I told the truth.

[652] Yeah, okay.

[653] One, two, three, present.

[654] Paper.

[655] Scissors.

[656] Scissors cuts paper.

[657] That is a win for Stephen.

[658] One, two, three, present.

[659] Rock.

[660] Cissors.

[661] Rock crushes scissors, and that is a win for Tom.

[662] So that it's two, one, Tom.

[663] One, two, three, present.

[664] Paper.

[665] Scissors.

[666] Scissors cuts paper, that is a win for Dubner.

[667] So it's two all.

[668] Two all.

[669] One, two, three, present.

[670] Rock.

[671] Scissors.

[672] Rock crushes scissors.

[673] That is a takeaway for whipple.

[674] That is three to whipple.

[675] You may have noticed by now that I've employed four scissors consecutively.

[676] I have.

[677] I have.

[678] And I think you flagging it up means that I'm definitely going to do rock next time.

[679] It's what I call the super seamstress.

[680] A seamstress, I understand, is three scissors in a row, but the super seamstress.

[681] I think I may have invented the super seamstress.

[682] I think that's accepted in sort of competition play.

[683] Is that right?

[684] Yeah, yeah.

[685] I know there are many names for these patterns, yeah.

[686] So let's see what we've got.

[687] Ready?

[688] One, two, three, present.

[689] Rock.

[690] Scissors.

[691] Okay.

[692] Rock crushes scissors.

[693] That is a win for Whipple.

[694] It is now 4 -2.

[695] 1, 2, 3.

[696] Present.

[697] Paper.

[698] Rock.

[699] Paper covers rock.

[700] That is a win for Whipple.

[701] It is 5 -2 Whipple.

[702] One, two, three, present.

[703] Scissors.

[704] Rock.

[705] Rock crushes scissors.

[706] That is a win for Dubner.

[707] It is 5 -3 Whipple.

[708] One, two, three, present.

[709] Paper.

[710] Paper.

[711] That's a draw.

[712] That's a draw.

[713] one, two, three, present paper.

[714] Paper, that's a draw.

[715] One, two, three, present, paper.

[716] Rock.

[717] Oh, well done.

[718] That was a beautiful.

[719] Well, that was really tense.

[720] That was just good for the game.

[721] Very well done.

[722] Very well done.

[723] So now that we've heard me get crushed by you, the master, give us your masterful advice on rock paper scissors.

[724] So, I mean, the first thing to say about rock paper scissors is there shouldn't be a strategy.

[725] You know, the optimal strategy is, everyone plays randomly and you're equally likely to win or equally likely to lose, which makes it a fantastic psychology problem because humans are incapable of being random.

[726] The reason I don't know what to do is there was a bunch of Chinese researchers who decided that they were going to find themselves a phenomenally indulgent grant awarding body and they were going to get 300 students to play 360 games of rock paper scissors and then they were going to look for strategies or look for ticks, the non -randomness that could be exploited.

[727] And the ones they found is sort of almost embarrassingly as an insight into how the human brain works.

[728] So if you lose, if say my rock beats your scissors, then you'll think, right, I need to make these scissors more powerful.

[729] I'm going to go to a more powerful thing.

[730] So I'm going to go to rock.

[731] And so if you lose, then I have to think next time, if you lost on scissors, you're going to play rocks that I need to shift up to paper.

[732] And if you win, then you think, well, that went well, I think I'll stick with that one.

[733] And so if you won on rock, then you would be likely to stay on rock.

[734] And so I should go on paper.

[735] It's giving you an edge.

[736] I mean, I don't think it's, you know, there's a huge element of chance.

[737] And I can't say it would have actually made the difference in our game as opposed to being chance.

[738] But it gives you just that small edge in a game that's meant to be a purely random game of chance.

[739] So I assume that according to your master strategy that my subversion strategy of throwing, let's say, five scissors in a row to create the appearance of basically lunacy is a bad strategy?

[740] Well, I wasn't even, I was just sticking with that particular strategy, so I wasn't particularly noticing.

[741] The only thing I would say is when we drew, I went with a different strategy, which is I went paper, because scissors, contrary to what you were doing, are actually the, they're the least used statistically of all of them.

[742] Scissors are the least.

[743] I assume that rock is the most.

[744] Yeah, they use scissors.

[745] The other two, paper and rock are pretty equal, but scissors are 29 .6 % of the time when they've been analyzed.

[746] So, Tom, you have crushed me at rock paper scissors.

[747] You beat me soundly at battleship.

[748] We hung each other once in Hangman, and I got lucky on Connect 4.

[749] So here's my question for you.

[750] Having become master or at least a surrogate master for the proper masters of all these.

[751] games and having written this book about how to win games and beat people.

[752] Is there any element of joy that's diluted when you win by knowing the optimal way?

[753] It's not cheating, but it's kind of a different version of gaining an advantage over someone else.

[754] I think joy is the wrong paradigm for this.

[755] Joy is the sort of thing that people say, oh, it's the taking part that counts.

[756] It's the battle cry of the loser.

[757] Losers look for joy.

[758] I look for victory.

[759] And that's what I've got.

[760] And then I'll go and live my cold, shallow life.

[761] But I'll have won.

[762] And, you know, who's the real loser?

[763] Coming up next time on Friconomics Radio, is it really true that Scandinavia is the happiest place on Earth?

[764] Yeah, I definitely am happier.

[765] It's about togetherness.

[766] It's about pleasure.

[767] It's about warmth.

[768] I regularly forget to lock car.

[769] or house, I do leave my children outside to sleep.

[770] And why even economists are getting on the happiness train and putting aside traditional measures like GDP.

[771] My God, let's get serious about the quality of our lives and stop this nonsense.

[772] That's next time on Freakonomics Radio.

[773] Freakonomics Radio is produced by Stitcher and Dubner Productions.

[774] This episode was produced by Irva Gunja.

[775] Our staff also includes Allison Craiglo, Greg Rippen, Alvin Mellith, Harry Huggins, and Zach Lipinski.

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