59. The Hidden Side of the Super Bowl

[0] From APM, American Public Media and WNYC, this is Freakonomics Radio on Marketplace.

[1] Here's the host of Marketplace, Hi Rizdahl.

[2] Time now for a little bit of Freakonomics Radio, that moment in the broadcast every couple of weeks where we talk to Stephen Dubner, the co -author of the books and the blog of the same name.

[3] It is the hidden side of everything.

[4] Dubner, welcome back.

[5] Hey, Guy, thank you.

[6] And listen, congratulations to you, your beloved New York Giants heading back to the Super Bowl.

[7] How about that Eli Man?

[8] huh?

[9] Peyton who?

[10] Yeah.

[11] And so you're happy now.

[12] So it seems like a good time for me to confess a little something I've been hiding from you, which is I've been kind of two -timing.

[13] Hey, ho.

[14] Wait, what?

[15] I've been doing these football freakonomics segments for the NFL network during the season.

[16] All right.

[17] I don't love that, but okay, that's fine.

[18] Whatever.

[19] All right, but here's the upside, which is I'd like to share with you a few of the things I've learned, kind of the hidden side of the Super Bowl, if you will.

[20] Yeah, but, Dubner, here's the thing.

[21] There are a lot of people who watch this game or, you know, to parties about it between the dip and the beer and all that stuff, who don't really know a whole lot about football itself.

[22] So what do you got?

[23] So if you want to impress your friends, you could explode some cherished football myths, such as here's one, defense wins championships.

[24] What do you mean?

[25] Of course they do.

[26] Not really true.

[27] Now, of course, you'd rather have a great defense than a bad one, but statistically, if you look at past Super Bowls and just football in general, defense is not the magic bullet that the cliche suggests.

[28] And in fact, you look at the matchup this year.

[29] During the regular season, on defense, the Giants and the New England Patriots ranked 27th and 31st, respectively at a 32 team.

[30] And in fact, actually, the games came down to special teams, the field goal units.

[31] That's right.

[32] They both squeaked in.

[33] So which brings us, here's another myth, icing the kicker.

[34] Now, that's where the opposing coach will call a timeout, just as the poor field goal kicker is about to try this critical field goal to tie or win the game.

[35] And the idea is they're trying to get inside the kicker's head.

[36] Turns out, statistically, a kicker is no more likely to miss a kick if he's been iced.

[37] And in fact, it may even give him a slight advantage and that he's got a little bit more time to prepare for the kick.

[38] So what does matter then?

[39] Well, home field advantage is nice.

[40] You know, there's a real measurable effect, not just in football, but across all sports.

[41] However, it's not necessarily for the reasons we think, the old, you know, sleeping in your own bed and familiarity with the field.

[42] It turns out that probably the biggest single explanatory factor for home field advantage is the officials.

[43] they make more calls in favor of the home team.

[44] Now, NFL officials are very, very good, but they're also human.

[45] And on some level, most humans seek approval.

[46] And in this case, in the case of football from, you know, 60 ,000 screaming fans, hard to ignore.

[47] You know what?

[48] I got you here, Dubner.

[49] I have this is my aha moment with you.

[50] You ready?

[51] Here's the thing.

[52] We live for these.

[53] Yeah.

[54] Unlike the NBA championships and unlike Major League Baseball in the World Series, the Super Bowl is played in a neutral.

[55] site, right?

[56] It's in Indianapolis this year.

[57] Correct.

[58] But here's the hidden side of the hidden side.

[59] Let's not forget.

[60] That's very meta, dude, but anyway, go ahead.

[61] Let's not forget that Giants quarterback Eli Manning has a big brother named Peyton you referred to.

[62] Peyton Manning has been the backbone of the Indianapolis Colts for more than a decade.

[63] Or the neck bone this season, but he wasn't.

[64] That's exactly right.

[65] So he was out this year.

[66] But even so, the crowd at most Super Bowls is full of out -of -towners.

[67] I would not be shocked if there's enough pro -manning family sentiment in Indianapolis to maybe translate into a slight home field edge for the Giants.

[68] All right.

[69] Well, I certainly hope.

[70] Let me, though, speak on behalf of those who don't really know or care about the game and they just want to watch and go to the party.

[71] Is there a thing that they can use to perhaps pick a winner?

[72] Here's the thing, Kai, you may not know this about me. I'm a bit of a crusader against bacterial infections, especially.

[73] No, I'm serious.

[74] No, so am I. It surprises me not at all.

[75] It's a non -sequitur coming from a Super Bowl, right?

[76] But especially in hospitals and other public places.

[77] I'm always railing against poor hand hygiene.

[78] Well, last week, we had a football Freakonomics shoot in the Giants locker room, which was empty at the time.

[79] And guess what I saw there, Kai?

[80] I don't know, man. I was.

[81] On top of every urinal in the Giants locker room, there was a big dispenser of antibacterial solution.

[82] Right there on every urinal, I got to tell you, even if Eli Manning is too laid back of a quarterback for your taste or if you don't like Coach Tom Coughlin's old school style.

[83] From a public health perspective, I think you've got to be rooting for Big Blue, the New York Giants.

[84] Yeah, buddy, you heard it here first.

[85] Giants by two touchdowns over Tom Brady, I'm telling you.

[86] Because their hands are cleaner.

[87] Their hands are cleaners.

[88] That's right.

[89] Stephen Dunner, he does Freakonomics Radio.

[90] It's Freakonomics .com, the website.

[91] We'll see in a couple of weeks.

[92] Okay, Guy.

[93] Good luck.

[94] Yeah, man. Hey, I'm sorry about the Steelers, by the way.