RR The Wire 2130Z November 29, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 213029Z NOV 23

ICOD: 210029Z NOV 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: GAZA CEASEFIRE CONTINUES TENUOUSLY. PRO-PALESTINE DEMONSTRATIONS CONTINUE AS BEFORE.

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-International Events-

Middle East Front: The situation regarding the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel remains in question. Some sources continue to claim the ceasefire has broken, but other sources claim the ceasefire is holding. Some evidence suggests that limited skirmishes and engagements have occurred, but the locations of which have been hard to verify. AC: By and large, the ceasefire is probably holding with regards to large-scale attacks such as rocket attacks or bombings. However, due to the insurgent and somewhat cellular nature of Hamas and the severe degradation of communication lines in Gaza, it is possible that some fighters scattered throughout Gaza City either do not know of the ceasefire, or are committed to attacks regardless. Doctrinally speaking, holdouts remaining behind enemy lines are the hardest forces to judge, and if this theory is plausible, this would explain the conflicting reports.

What is more clear is the Israeli advance into West Bank. Though the Gaza Strip may be under a ceasefire, Israeli operations in the West Bank continue as before. Arab media sources are claiming that though Israel has released a little over a hundred prisoners to Hamas in the Gaza prisoner exchanges, Israeli forces have taken roughly the same amount of prisoners in West Bank, many of which may be children. AC: Though the sourcing of these claims is dubious at best (like every single source reporting on this conflict so far), this would make sense in terms of Israel’s strategic goals. Israeli officials have confirmed the military operations in West Bank, but have not indicated how many prisoners they have taken from the area over the past few weeks.

-Homefront-

USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations continue as before. Reports from social media indicate there will allegedly be a significant Pro-Palestine protest at the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree lighting ceremony. AC: Though most of what’s on social media isn’t true these days, so far tree lighting events around the country have been targeted by demonstrators.

-Analyst Comments-

Moving into the Christmas season, large holiday festivities are likely to be targeted by demonstrations at minimum, and more deliberate attacks at worst. Due to the ongoing events in the Middle East, the potential for lone-wolf attacks is increased throughout North America and Europe. Though this idea can be cut/pasted from any moment in the past decade, this year the motivations for unrest and the authorities’ means to cover up genuine terror attacks, could result in more kinetic actions over the next month.

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Analyst: S2A

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The Wire - November 29, 2023