//The Wire//1800Z February 19, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: HOUTHI FORCES SINK SHIP IN BAB EL MANDEB STRAIT.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Western mainstream media reporting over the past 24 hours has suggested that Egypt may be preparing for the reception of Palestinian refugees. Planet Labs satellite imagery was provided to media groups that indicates a large swath of land is being cleared in Egypt, just across the border from Rafah. Egyptian authorities have denied these claims, as the policy of strategic ambiguity precludes Egypt from making a de facto admission that the expulsion of Palestinians into Egypt might be possible. AC: Though it is challenging to verify anything that is provided to media groups, the quiet preparation of emergency refugee camps in Egypt is very likely following the Israeli announcement of imminent operations in Rafah. Though the politics of the events in Gaza cloud the situation on the ground, it is clear that Egypt has always considered the expulsion of Palestinians into Egypt as a possibility, and if these preparations are confirmed, these actions to prepare for such strongly indicates that Egypt may believe this worst-case scenario is very likely.

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi attacks on commercial shipping became more serious overnight following the sinking of a commercial vessel. Overnight, Houthi forces struck the M/V RUBYMAR (a Belize-flagged bulk cargo carrier) with multiple cruise missiles. The crew abandoned ship shortly after the strike. This morning, the RUBYMAR was reported as being sunk in the Bab el Mandeb Strait. AC: This marks the first (publicly-disclosed) successful sinking of a commercial ship by Houthi forces so far in this conflict.

This morning, Houthi attacks continued as another vessel was targeted in a similar manner. An as-yet-unidentified vessel reported multiple explosions in close proximity to the vessel in the Gulf of Aden.

-Homefront-

TX: Border situation continues as before, despite little independent media coverage of the truth on the ground. Events in the vicinity of Eagle Pass have largely developed into politics, with Shelby Park mostly serving as a location for photo opportunities or press events due to the halting of illegal immigration in this very small area.

Relations among defense forces in the region remain tepid as politics becomes more intertwined with the border protection mission. On Friday, Texas announced a $131 million plan to build a Forward Operating Base (FOB) near the southern U.S. border. FOB EAGLE BASE CAMP will be completed in September, and will reportedly be a larger version similar camps already in place throughout the region. AC: Though on paper this makes sense, creating a FOB virtually identical to those found overseas is mildly concerning for some. Using the term “FOB” to describe this base is almost certainly a political move to increasingly drive a wedge between the state and federal governments, or at the very least undermine and chip away at the perceived control of the federal State by using language and terminology that reinforces the military tone of illegal immigration being treated as an invasion.

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Analyst Comments: Houthi forces, likely emboldened by their public sinking of a commercial ship, will likely continue targeting vessels in a similar manner. It has become clear via the daily successful targeting of commercial shipping that OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is hopelessly ineffective in providing missile defense for commercial ships. U.S. Navy forces constantly report the ‘successful strike’ of allegedly staged missiles and drones, yet the only limiting factor for the Houthis seems to be simply the lack of western vessels willing to take the risk of transiting the Red Sea.

Analyst: S2A1

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The Wire - February 19, 2024