The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett XX
[0] Did you know that the DariVosio now has its own channel exclusively on Samsung TV Plus?
[1] And I'm excited to say that we've partnered with Samsung TV to bring this to life, and the channel is available in the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and Austria.
[2] Samsung TV Plus is a free streaming service available to all owners of Samsung Smart TVs and Galaxy mobiles and tablets.
[3] And along with the Dyeravisio channel, you'll find hundreds of more channels with entertainment for everyone all for free on Samsung TV Plus.
[4] So if you own a Samsung TV, tune in now and watch the Dyer of a Cio channel.
[5] right now.
[6] The optimism bias from what I understood is that, is that bias to believing that the future will be good?
[7] Is that accurate or is that inaccurate?
[8] Yeah, kind of.
[9] So optimism on its own means...
[10] You're agreeing with me even though I'm wrong.
[11] No, no, no, you're not wrong.
[12] I think what you mean is right.
[13] Thank you.
[14] I'll just give you the scientific definition.
[15] So, yeah, so optimism is believing that, you know, that positive things will happen.
[16] The optimism bias means that you're either like...
[17] that you believe these optimistic things, these good things will happen, but the evidence suggests otherwise.
[18] So it's actually a mistake, right?
[19] The optimism bias.
[20] So usually we define it as overestimating the likelihood of positive events happening.
[21] So you're overestimating how much money am I going to get with my first job when I leave graduate school, right?
[22] Or overestimating, like, how long my marriage will last and so on.
[23] So overestimating the positive in light of the evidence that is in front of us and underestimating the likelihood of negative events happening.
[24] So I'm underestimating my likelihood of getting COVID, of getting cancer, of being in a car accident, going bankrupt, whatever it is, based on whatever evidence is there.
[25] So optimism bias does mean mistakes.
[26] So the word bias means a systematic mistake.
[27] So obviously when we think about the future, we can't be right most of the time because the future is uncertain.
[28] and we don't know what's going to happen.
[29] So we're going to be wrong a lot of times when we predict the future.
[30] But the optimism bias means that the mistakes that we make tend to systematically be that we expect it to be better than it ends up being.
[31] So that's basically the optimism bias, right?
[32] I expect it to be better than it ends up being, which sounds like a bad thing, but it's not necessarily so.
[33] I mean, the word bias, people usually, because it is a mistake, people usually think that that means it's not a good thing.
[34] But it's not necessarily so.
[35] It can actually have both positive and negative outcomes to it.
[36] So if you think about the positive, if I expect good things in my future, specifically good things, even though I'm overestimating the likelihood of these things happening, even if I think, oh, I'm going to make $1 million in the next year.
[37] And, of course, that's way more than I'm going to.
[38] But that then motivates you, right?
[39] So having these positive expectations motivates you to try harder.
[40] It's a bit like I think I'm going to get the gold, I'm more likely to get the silver.
[41] So that's kind of the idea.
[42] And it also enhances your happiness and well -being, right?
[43] Because how you're feeling now is a lot to do not necessarily with what you're doing at the moment, but what you think you'll be doing later, right?
[44] How you're feeling now is like, okay, you might maybe feeling nice talking here.
[45] But a lot of it is what do I think I'm going to do later on this evening, next week, next month, in a year?
[46] Our expectations of where we will be in the future affects our happiness today.
[47] Right.
[48] And so if I have these positive, positive expectations of the future, even if they're not going to happen, they make me happier today.
[49] This is why there's a really cool study that was done at Harvard where they were asking people who are about to go on vacation, how happy they were every day before vacation, and every day after vacation for a week.
[50] So a week before vacation every day, a week during vacation every day, a week after vacation every day.
[51] So what was the happiest day, do you think?
[52] the day before they were right exactly right the day before vacation they were still in the office working on the computers but on their mind they were already on vacation on in their mind it was wonderful and when they went on vacation it was good but it wasn't as good as it was in their mind the day before so it's the anticipation of these good so it's an optimism bias because they thought the vacation is going to be better than what it ended up being but that brought them the happiness beforehand right and also probably enhance the likely they will go on vacation which is a good thing as well.
[53] So does that mean that we should in our relationships, in our, in our teams, et cetera, we should try and give people things to look forward to?
[54] Absolutely.
[55] Absolutely.
[56] And I think that there's two things.
[57] You kind of want things in the diary, right?
[58] So having a vacation in the diary that's going to happen in a month makes you happy today.
[59] So whatever it is, whatever you're doing for that matters to your team, have what I call anticipatory events, right?
[60] Things that they could look forward to that will make them happy today.
[61] But also, I think, you know, a lot of times I do motivate my team by telling them that I think this project is going to work really well.
[62] I mean, even I think it's very well, but I might like exaggerate a little bit because, you know, that enhances motivation.
[63] And who knows, you know, maybe it will work even better than I expected.
[64] So it's good to kind of enhance kind of the expectations and also to have these things that people can look forward to.
[65] And of course, it works the other way.
[66] So also, if you're dreading something that's going to happen tomorrow next week, right?
[67] You have to go to the dentist or whatever bad thing is happening is going to get there.
[68] And it's going to affect your mood today.
[69] So dread of things in the future and anticipation of the good stuff is all affecting how we feel at the moment.
[70] How contagious is optimism and conversely pessimism in life generally?
[71] If I'm around a group of pessimists or I'm around a group of optimists, What kind of contagious impact is there on me?
[72] Yeah, any emotion is contagious, anything, sadness, anxiety, joy, everything is contagious, fear.
[73] And it happens really, really fast and in an unconscious way, right?
[74] It could be even like you're sitting in the tube and someone in front of you is looking fearful.
[75] You straight away will feel fearful yourself.
[76] First of all, you will mimic the expression of the person that's in front of you without noticing it.
[77] So if you look fearful, I'm going to start mimicking the same facial expressions.
[78] Yeah.
[79] And that facial expression will make me feel fearful, right?
[80] Because our brain is learning from how our face, right?
[81] It's a signal and it goes both ways.
[82] It's like a feedback loop.
[83] And there's a good reason for it because if someone is afraid, there might be something dangerous around us.
[84] So I should.
[85] We've seen the monkeys in the David Atber documentary.
[86] That start, they know that.
[87] They know that the other monkeys are taking a cue from them.
[88] So they fake fear.
[89] So they go, ah, and then when all the monkeys run off, they go and get the food.
[90] Because they've like, they've like got to level two where they realize that they're all taking cues from each other.
[91] And I remember that in documentary thinking, wow, like, you know, because all the monkeys would run the minute one monkey made a reaction.
[92] And that's pretty much what you're describing there, right?
[93] Yeah, exactly.
[94] And it works for good things as well.
[95] If someone looks excited, you're like, you will feel excited as well.
[96] You don't know why.
[97] But if they're excited, there might be something good around, right?
[98] Is this why people yawn together?
[99] I was thinking about yorns are contagious.
[100] It's just mimicking.
[101] We do facial expressions.
[102] We mimic any kind of facial expression and bodily expressions as well.
[103] Yeah, I'm trying not to now.
[104] But okay, so why is this really important to think about?
[105] Because let's say you want to, you're managing your team, if you're stressful and you're going to start like, I don't know, even like shouting or raising your voice or they're going to get more stressed as well, right?
[106] So it's true.
[107] It's a bit like the monkeys.
[108] you can actually change at least how you look in terms of the emotions.
[109] You need to think about what is my, what emotion am I conveying?
[110] Because the emotion that you are conveying is going to then affect how people around you feel.
[111] So there's a little bit of kind of emotional control that is helpful to do.
[112] You mentioned that you kind of, you might exaggerate a little bit the belief in a positive outcome to your team members.
[113] And I think that's...
[114] And I hope they're not listening.
[115] Yeah.
[116] Well, I think we all do sometimes.
[117] I mean, I usually believe it because I think I have a bit of a bias, optimism bias myself.
[118] But that's in part because of, I guess, Chapter 3 in the optimism bias where you talk about how self -fulfilling optimism is.
[119] And there was some really, really staggering statistical sort of studies and experiments that have been done to prove that optimism really is a self -fulfilling thing.
[120] And it kind of makes me think about this concept of.
[121] manifestation.
[122] People always talk about manifestation.
[123] And it seems that it's in my mind always been this kind of pseudosciencey.
[124] You just think about something and then it happens.
[125] What's your view on manifestation?
[126] Is it true?
[127] Yeah.
[128] So it's not magic.
[129] It's not that I'm thinking something in my mind and the waves are going to change what happens in the world.
[130] The reason if you believe something, the likely they will happen is higher is because you then change your actions.
[131] You think, I think, you know, my startup is going to really succeed.
[132] And that then changes your actions.
[133] You're more likely to go out there and tell other people, right?
[134] So if you think it's going to succeed, you're more likely to convey that information to investors and so on.
[135] They can see your kind of confidence.
[136] There will be more likely to invest in you, right?
[137] You put more time in, you put more effort in.
[138] And that's why it can have an effect on the outcomes.
[139] So it's not kind of a magic kind of thing.
[140] It's just that what we believe in our mind change as a way we behave, and the way we behave in the world changes the world.
[141] So that's why that is.
[142] Did you know that the Dariovaseo now has its own channel exclusively on Samsung TV Plus?
[143] And I'm excited to say that we've partnered with Samsung TV to bring this to life, and the channel is available in the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and Austria.
[144] Samsung TV Plus is a free streaming service available to all owners of Samsung Smart TVs and Galaxy mobiles and tablets.
[145] And along with the Dyer of a CO channel, you'll find hundreds of more channels with entertainment for everyone all for free on Samsung TV Plus.
[146] So if you own a Samsung TV, tune in now and watch the Dyer of a CEO channel right now.