Why Are All Eyes on the Virginia Governor’s Race?

[0] From New York Times, I'm Michael Bobarrow.

[1] This is a daily.

[2] Today, the upcoming election of Virginia's next governor has attracted the attention of everyone from Donald Trump to Barack Obama.

[3] I spoke with my colleague, Lisa Lair, about why both parties are so invested in the outcome and what the race is already revealing about the state of American politics in the Biden era.

[4] It's Monday.

[5] October 18th, Lisa, why is the governor's race in Virginia, which is a state race, not a federal election?

[6] Why is it being so closely watched and why does it matter to national political reporters like you?

[7] Well, Michael, this is really the first competitive election we've had since Biden won office.

[8] And it's also the first race we're seeing without Trump on the ballot or in the White House.

[9] So we're really getting a glimpse at political dynamics that we just haven't tested before of how people are perceiving this moment and how voters are feeling about it.

[10] And what should we know about the politics of Virginia itself?

[11] So Virginia is an interesting state.

[12] It's traditionally been a red state, but that began to change, really, during the Obama years.

[13] And now, particularly during Trump's time in office, it's become a place that Democrats feel a lot more confident about.

[14] It really epitomizes the way that Democrats won during the Trump administration, which was by turning these suburban counties.

[15] that had been maybe more moderate or more swing counties, turning them much more democratic.

[16] And of course, in 2020, Biden won the state by 10 points.

[17] But there is this sense that Virginia is a place that's heavily influenced by the national political environment, in part because it's next to Washington, D .C., and then that gives Republicans a chance to possibly mount a comeback in the Commonwealth, that Republicans could win in Virginia, and it could be a of them doing much better in the midterm elections and even the 2024 presidential.

[18] Hmm.

[19] So the question in this race, or a question in this race, is, is this a favorable moment for Republicans nationally, or is it still the case coming out of Biden's 10 -point victory a year ago that this is a favorable moment for Democrats?

[20] That's exactly right.

[21] During Trump, the national environment was very unfavorable.

[22] for Republicans.

[23] As we saw, Democrats took control of the White House in Congress.

[24] And now there's a sense that that could be changing.

[25] Biden's approval ratings are not what they were when he entered office.

[26] He's doing much worse, particularly with independence.

[27] And Republicans see a real opportunity.

[28] They're looking at the environment around them and they're seeing that people are facing all these challenges in their daily lives.

[29] There's been an uptick in crime.

[30] There's a rise in inflation.

[31] So people's prices for gas, for cars, for milk, for groceries are higher.

[32] There's a supply chain shortage.

[33] There's concerns about everyone's going to get their Christmas presents, things like that.

[34] And Republicans see those as issues that they can capitalize on to really make a comeback in the midterms.

[35] Hmm.

[36] Okay.

[37] So that is the national backdrop for this state governor's race that everyone's watching so closely.

[38] So tell us about the candidates in that race.

[39] So Terry McAuliffe is the Democratic candidate who's running.

[40] You know, when you're elected governor, you're not elected a Democratic governor or a Republican governor.

[41] You're elected governor of the entire state.

[42] He's a former governor, Virginia.

[43] Virginia has this quirky law where you can't run for two consecutive terms.

[44] So he's back for a second term out of being out of office for four years.

[45] In the second, I took that oath to office.

[46] I got out of bed trying to help everybody.

[47] He's a longtime party stalwart.

[48] He's someone who's close friends with the Clintons.

[49] He was a very, very prompt.

[50] Party fundraiser for many, many years.

[51] So he's someone that has long relationships in the Democratic Party.

[52] Who is it going to raise teacher pay?

[53] Who is it going to get broadband access?

[54] Who's going to fight like hell to make sure they got a good, high -paying quality job?

[55] And he's someone that's really proudly running as a Biden Democrat.

[56] My politics are about helping people, lifting everybody up.

[57] But he also has admitted in various ways that perhaps the president and the new administration hasn't been all that great for him politically.

[58] But we've got to get Democrats out to vote.

[59] He came under a lot of fire from Democrats for saying, we are facing a lot of headwinds from Washington, as you know, the president is unpopular today, unfortunately here in Virginia, so we have got to plow through.

[60] That his campaign was facing a lot of headwinds from Washington and saying that the president isn't popular.

[61] We're tired of the chitty chat up in Washington.

[62] He's also really been very, very vocal about the need for Congress to get past the infrastructure, I'm traveling all over Virginia.

[63] They're worried about them in wage.

[64] They want child care.

[65] They want elderly care.

[66] They want to see paid sick leave, family medical leave.

[67] And that is something that would really help his campaign if they could get those things done before his election.

[68] And the frustration is, why isn't it done by now?

[69] 69 votes in the Senate two months ago.

[70] Get it done this week.

[71] Do your job.

[72] So although McColliffe seems to be acknowledging, there are problems with being a close ally of Joe Biden, he's still betting that there's a fair bit of goodwill among Virginia voters for the president and for the Democratic Party and his messages, you know, give this party, give this president, give me a chance.

[73] We're on the right track.

[74] Right.

[75] What's interesting is he's not running away from Biden.

[76] He's still embracing the mantle of being a Biden Democrat.

[77] He's just kind of saying that he would like to see them get a bit more done in Washington.

[78] And really what he's focusing on is trying to keep Donald Trump as a figure in play in this election.

[79] My opponent, my opponent, Glenn Yonkin, well, he's not running for you.

[80] He's running for Donald Trump.

[81] Most of his attacks focus on Donald Trump.

[82] Let's start at the beginning of Glenn's campaign.

[83] He launched his campaign on an election integrity plan that was based on Donald Trump's conspiracy theory about the 2020 election.

[84] Warning that should Republicans win that they would bring this state back to Trump -like policies, to some form of Trumpism.

[85] You got to ask yourself, why is it that Glenn Yonkin and Donald Trump are so close?

[86] Because they share the same agenda.

[87] And you better believe that that agenda is completely out of touch with Virginians.

[88] It's an open question, whether that is really going to resonate.

[89] with voters who just aren't seeing that much Donald Trump in their daily lives.

[90] But in part, that's the only play he has.

[91] Without much of a Democratic agenda coming out of Washington, he really doesn't have a lot to run on other than the promise of what Biden could do.

[92] Okay, so tell me more about McColliffe's Republican rival, Glenn Yonkin.

[93] Who is he?

[94] I'm Glenn Yonkin.

[95] I'm not a politician.

[96] He's a former private equity executive.

[97] After 26 years in Northern Virginia and a long business career, I stood up out of my chair last summer and said, enough, enough.

[98] My beloved Commonwealth is just being driven into the ditch by the leadership in Richmond.

[99] He's never held political office before, which means he doesn't have much of a record for a McCall of to go after.

[100] That makes him a much more difficult target for Democrats.

[101] And here's a chance for somebody that has a 30 -year business career that has a really different set of experience in building business and creating jobs to act.

[102] He's also the kind of politician that Virginia voters tend to like a sort of outsider businessman, they believe, can come in and shake things up in the state.

[103] It's a new day here in Virginia, and the future belongs to us, not them.

[104] He's done a really fascinating dance with Donald Trump, where he's embraced many of the mantles of Trumpism.

[105] The endorsement from the president was something I'm very honored by.

[106] Glenn Yonkin is a great gentleman, really successful.

[107] He loves the state.

[108] I'm going to invest in our election process so that Virginia voters trust the process and trust the outcome.

[109] You know, the questions about voter integrity in a stolen election to kind of keep these Trump voters in the fold, because that really is a strong part of his base, while trying to separate himself some in order to avoid alienating independence or moderates in the suburbs, which are really this voter rich part of the state.

[110] But I spoke with someone who really ran both of Trump's campaigns in the state.

[111] And what he told me is Yonkin is giving the conservative Trump base 80 % of what they want.

[112] And 80 % is enough for them because they want to win the state.

[113] It's also exactly what his campaign needs to do because they know if they give 100 % to these Trump conservatives, they risk losing moderates.

[114] And that could cost them this election.

[115] But Lisa, that still leaves Yon with what seems like a math problem.

[116] he needs to peel off a lot of moderate voters in Virginia if he's going to make up for the 10 -point gap that Biden had over Trump in the state.

[117] And so what is Yonkin's strategy to do that?

[118] Well, Yonkin's campaign recognizes, as does everyone involved with this campaign in Virginia, that whoever gets most of their voters to the polls will win, that this is an off -off -year election.

[119] And turnout is going to be low.

[120] So the side that can best motivate, their base will likely come out of this, the winner.

[121] And so he's started to motivate his base by turning to this issue that really historically hasn't motivated voters in massive numbers.

[122] It's been sort of a sleepier issue, something that candidates talked about but didn't really center their whole campaigns around, and that is education and schools.

[123] Yonkin has capitalized on this sense that parents have spent the last year of this pandemic stewing in rage and frustration over their kids' schooling.

[124] There is a revolt against the way our schools have been managed comprehensively.

[125] I would not have a vaccine passport in Virginia.

[126] I don't believe in it.

[127] I think we have to respect parents' decisions about their own children.

[128] And I stop teaching them what to think and teach them how to think.

[129] So we've watched critical race theory come into our schools and try to divide our children based on seeing everything through a lens as opposed to the content of their character.

[130] And so what Yonkin's campaign sees is an ability to motivate the conservative part of his base around issues that really are sort of these pet issues of conservatives, things like critical race theory, how transgender students are treated in schools, and then he's hoping that he can peel off some of these moderate voters, particularly in these really voter -rich suburbs, with issues around mask mandates and public health guidelines for schools and vaccine mandates for children.

[131] Then something happened that really let Youngkin capitalize on this argument that he's been making around schools and could potentially alter the dynamics of this race.

[132] In the second debate between the candidates.

[133] Good evening.

[134] I'm Chuck Todd and welcome to the Virginia gubernatorial debate between Democrats.

[135] They were discussing issues around schools and education.

[136] What we've seen over the course of the last 20 months is our school systems refusing to engage with parents.

[137] And what had happened was Youngkin attacked McColliffe over his veto of a bill from 2017.

[138] And in fact, you vetoed the bill that would have allowed parents to opt out of letting their children's study material that the parents felt was sexually explicit.

[139] And the dispute was prompted by a mother who objected to her son, who was a high school senior, reading things that were really part of the canon, including Tony Morrison's beloved.

[140] It became as the beloved bill.

[141] McCallif vetoed it.

[142] You believe school systems should tell children what to do.

[143] I believe parents should be in charge of their kids' education.

[144] Mr. McCulloch, 30 seconds.

[145] So first of all, this shows how clueless Glenn Yonkin is.

[146] He doesn't understand what the laws were, because he's never been involved here in helping Virginia.

[147] Defending his veto, he shot back saying that.

[148] I'm not going to let parents come into schools and actually take books out and make their own decision.

[149] You vetoed it.

[150] So, yeah, I've stopped the bill that I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.

[151] He did not believe parents should be telling schools what they teach.

[152] He stood by that statement since, but we're being joined live by Republican candidate Glenn Yonkin.

[153] Immediately after the debate, Yonkin's campaign took this line and started playing it basically on a loop in front of his voters.

[154] Terry McAuliffe last night actually said that parents shouldn't have anything to say about their children's education.

[155] He believes in government.

[156] He He believes in bureaucrats, he believes in politicians, should be standing between parents and children.

[157] My opponent does not respect parents.

[158] I do.

[159] And the reason Youngkin's campaign sees that comment as such a powerful part of their closing message is because it really encapsulates a lot of what they've been trying to say about Mr. McCoff, that he would side with the government over parents and a whole host of issues that could energize the entire coalition of the Republican Party.

[160] We'll be right back.

[161] So, Lisa, you described a moment in the governor's debate that Yonkin seized on and used to frame McCallif as someone who believes that government, rather than parents, should be deciding what happens in schools.

[162] What has been the reaction from voters to that line of attack from Yonkin?

[163] Well, what we've seen from Republicans, at least, is that it's been pretty powerful that he is giving Republicans exactly what they want to hear.

[164] I went to see him at a campaign rally last week in Winchester, which is a small town that's in one of these fast -growing ex -urban counties, made my way through the crowd and talked to a bunch of people who were there.

[165] My name is Lisa.

[166] I'm a reporter.

[167] And I'm sure if I could talk to you a little about why you guys are all here.

[168] And what really stood out is that a lot of people said that schools were their number one issue.

[169] My top issues, critical race theory in our schools, the vaccine mandates.

[170] They were worried about what they were seeing in schools.

[171] The more I've listened and paid attention and I've seen what's going on in Loudoun County and I see what's going on in Frederick County.

[172] You know, the stuff I see, I don't want corrupting my children.

[173] I want them to be strong in what they believe and what they know.

[174] I spoke to this one woman who was saying how she didn't want to have to, she was vaccinated.

[175] she did not want to be forced to vaccinate her children.

[176] Just see these poor kids masked up, scared to death of the virus that has a 99 .89 survival rate will hardly affect them at all.

[177] And I'm like putting fear in them.

[178] Are you going to vaccinate or you're on the fence?

[179] I'm not planning to vaccinate.

[180] You're not.

[181] No, no, they're not.

[182] And the school, I'm sure, doesn't have any, like, man dear.

[183] Not, I mean, not right now.

[184] Yeah.

[185] And if Flynn Yon gets in, they won't.

[186] When he gets in, they won't.

[187] Thank you so much.

[188] She was worried about the long -term impacts of vaccinating them and was worried that should McAuliffe win, he would impose a vaccine mandate for kids.

[189] Is there any evidence to support that?

[190] Yeah, McCalliv has said that he supports mask and vaccine mandates for students, teachers, and school staff, like governors in a lot of liberal states do.

[191] Yonken has said that he encourages Virginians to get vaccinated, but he doesn't support mandates.

[192] I think the important context here with things like mask mandates and vaccine mandates is they are really popular with the broader electorate.

[193] There's very few issues where in American political life right now where you see support from 60 or 70 % of the population, and that's what you see when you ask questions about whether people should be required to wear masks in schools or teachers should be required to get vaccinated.

[194] There is broad support for that.

[195] But when you look at the numbers within Republican voters, They're much, much lower.

[196] A third of Republican voters support proposals like that.

[197] So what Yonkin is trying to do is split the difference on this issue and cast himself as someone who's supportive of vaccines but against mandates.

[198] And it has been a difficult line to walk.

[199] Hmm.

[200] I'm curious how McCallough has been responding to Yonkin's strategy in these past few weeks of focusing on education and parents, critical race theory, and this accusation that Democrats are trying to come between parents.

[201] and their children.

[202] Well, he's dismissed all the outrage surrounding critical race theory as racist and divisive and a dog whistle for the Trump base.

[203] But there are signs that his campaign senses some danger in this line of attack.

[204] He's returned to highlighting his education proposals.

[205] That was the first policy that he put out when he announced his campaign.

[206] And that's really to undercut any argument that Yonkin could be stronger on the issue.

[207] And he's talking about things that are included in his plan, like promising to invest $2 billion in education, raise teacher pay, expand pre -K programs in the state.

[208] He also released an ad saying that Yonkin would cut billions of dollars in education funding and bring Donald Trump and Betsy DeVos's education policies back to Virginia.

[209] So he's trying to tie Yon to Trump on these issues while being supportive of vaccine mandates and trying to sort of dismiss critical race theory.

[210] Lisa, you had said that this subject, education and that, debate moment could alter the dynamics of this race.

[211] So how much has all of this actually influenced the race so far?

[212] What do the polls tell us?

[213] Well, look, this is a hard race to poll because nobody knows exactly what turnout is going to be.

[214] It's the first competitive election, as we said, of the Biden administration.

[215] But we do know that earlier in September, McCullough seemed like he was up by a greater amount, maybe nine points or seven points, five points.

[216] And since that debate moment, the race has tightened.

[217] And there was one poll in particular that came shortly after the debate that showed the candidates effectively tied that just set off alarm bills and really some panic in democratic circles.

[218] And since then, what we've seen is this flotilla of Democratic heavy hitters heading into the state.

[219] Former President Barack Obama is going to be coming in.

[220] So will Stacey Abrams, who of course ran for governor in Georgia, Jill Biden's going to be coming in from McAuliffe.

[221] Speaker Nancy Pelosi hosted a fundraiser for him.

[222] So those are all signs of real alarm among Democrats about where this race is going.

[223] Mm -hmm.

[224] Alarm that McColliffe could lose to Yonkin.

[225] And for all the reasons you said earlier, that would be a very problematic symbol for the Democratic Party.

[226] Right.

[227] I think what people in the White House are concerned about is that it could undercut support for Biden's agenda in Congress.

[228] Biden is still negotiating these really complicated pieces of legislation that make up his entire domestic agenda, pretty much.

[229] And if he loses in Virginia, you could start to see an impact where these Democrats who are, you know, in the House or in the Senate, who are up for re -election might say, well, what Virginia tells me is that running on this Biden agenda isn't all that good for me. So it could undercut Biden's political capital, as well as sending shockwaves of alarm among all these candidates who are going to face what are already expected to be competitive elections next year.

[230] And what would it mean for Republicans if this race remains very close and if Yonkin were to defeat McAuliffe, which would be a meaningful upset?

[231] It would be a very, very meaningful upset.

[232] It would be the first time Republicans win in Virginia in a dozen years.

[233] It would be a major feather in their cap.

[234] It would probably lead to a huge influx of money because you'd see this surge of enthusiasm among Republican donors.

[235] You would see that control of Congress could be in their grasp in next year's midterms.

[236] And it would also, I think, cause a lot of these candidates who are running in the midterms to try to steal the Youngkin playbook to run on schools.

[237] I suspect we'll already be hearing about schools in the midterms.

[238] If Youngkin wins, I think it'll be an inescapable part of every Republican's message.

[239] Lisa, I wonder if there's a sense that Democrats could, in theory, re -alter the dynamics of this race by changing the way voters in places like Virginia see the Democratic Party right now, which is by getting big things actually done in Congress before this election.

[240] It's, in theory, possible that the president's infrastructure bill and his sweeping expansion of the social safety net could all get, get passed before early November, and wouldn't that mean that McAuliffe and Biden and Democrats could go to voters and say, we have something real that we have done for you, and that's bigger than your fears of what's happening in schools?

[241] Is this something that Democrats think might seal the deal for McAuliffe and make this race a template for Democratic success in the midterms and over the next few years.

[242] Sure.

[243] If Democrats can get something passed in Congress or even make progress towards a deal to get something passed in Congress over the next two weeks, that would help McCallough.

[244] That would be great for McCallough.

[245] And it would give them something to run on.

[246] At this point, that doesn't look super likely.

[247] But the school issue is not going away.

[248] For American parents, this is their third year of schooling during a pandemic.

[249] It is something that is ingrained at this point.

[250] in every American household with kids.

[251] And you have this situation where you have Republicans.

[252] They've seized on this issue that is really resonant and visceral in a lot of American households.

[253] And they're defining the terms of it.

[254] A few months ago, it was about keeping schools open.

[255] Then they've talked more or less about critical race theory.

[256] Now the focus is really on masks and vaccine mandates in schools.

[257] But if this issue that Republicans are defining helps them win Virginia, change the national political environment and gives them the edge heading into the midterms next year, it could just be the thing that potentially helps Republicans win back control of Congress.

[258] Lisa, thank you very much.

[259] We appreciate it.

[260] Thanks for having me. We'll be right back.

[261] Here's what else you need to another day.

[262] Over the weekend, a gang in Haiti known for mass kidnappings abducted a group of 17 American and Canadian missionaries as well as members of their families in the latest sign of lawlessness in the country.

[263] The abduction occurred as the missionaries, Christians who mostly traveled to Haiti from Ohio, were returning from a trip to an orphanage.

[264] Kidnappings and violence have exploded in Haiti in the months since the assassination of the country's president.

[265] And British authorities say they are treating the murder of a member of parliament as an act of terrorism.

[266] The lawmaker, David Amos, was meeting on Friday with constituents in a church building when he was stabbed to death by a 25 -year -old man. Police have not named the man who has been arrested, but said they believe his motivation may be linked to Islamic extremism.

[267] Today's episode was produced by Robert Jemison, Jessica Chung, Sydney Harper, and Rob Zipko.

[268] It was edited by Michael Benoit and Lisa Chow, engineered by Chris Wood, and contains original music by Marian Lazzano.

[269] Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Lansford of Wonderly.

[270] That's it for the daily.

[271] I'm Michael Bobaro.

[272] See you tomorrow.