//The Wire//1600Z February 16, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE. NO NEW INFO ON RUSSIAN SPACE THREAT.//

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-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: American strikes in Yemen continue, allegedly in self-defense against varying targets in Yemen. Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCMs), Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs), and various Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAVs) have begun to be targeted daily by U.S. forces in the region. Over a dozen various strikes have been reported over the past 24 hours. Threats to shipping continue as Houthi forces target multiple cargo vessels. The M/V LYCAVITOS was attacked with a cruise missile yesterday in the Gulf of Aden, and this morning an as-yet-unidentified vessel also reported being attacked by a cruise missile. AC: As this conflict has settled in for the long haul, the routine nature of attacks results in details being lost. Now, most reporting essentially can be summarized as “ship attacked, minor damage”. No details are ever provided following up with the status of vessels struck with cruise missiles, and no confirmation of the severity of damage is ever disclosed. This desensitization contributes to many people forgetting that one of the largest trade routes in the world is largely closed to western nations aligning with the U.S. or Israel, and that most western trade continues to be re-routed around the continent of Africa.

Russia: This morning, representatives from the Yamalo-Nenets prison district announced the death of Alexei Navalny. Navalny was serving a 19 year sentence in the IK-3 penal colony on charges of extremism. AC: Details of the circumstances of his death are predictably suspicious, with prison officials indicating that he collapsed and died. As Navalny was one of Putin’s most high-profile critics, and having survived multiple assassination attempts already, his death is not unexpected.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. – No new information regarding the “serious national security threat” claimed by Congress. Unofficially, the story has changed several times. Currently, officials claim that the threat is related to Russia’s ambitions to target American satellites in orbit, and is not related to any active capability or threat. However, rumors originating from Congress maintain that the threat is related to nuclear weapons, or something more serious than counter-satellite capabilities. AC: Clearly there are too many deliberate and open lies floating around to determine what the situation really is. This again leads to increased scrutiny as it becomes clear that the threat likely is not really a threat, but rather strategic defense technologies that have been a factor for a long time.

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Analyst Comments: As a reminder, the United States has not declared war against Yemen, or the Houthi forces controlling most of the country. The U.S. State Department has labeled the Houthi-controlled government as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist group…but not a Foreign Terrorist Organization (the most severe categorization). This means the U.S. has slowly begun conducting routine combat operations in a nation that the United States is not at war with, but most importantly, the justification for these “self defense strikes” is diplomatically dubious. For instance, OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is not on the list of approved combat operations that will rate a Global War on Terrorism Expeditionary Medal for the service members involved in the conflict; this is a de facto admission that this operation is not a part of the few remaining facets of the GWOT, which in turn is a strong indicator of the unique diplomatic situation (and legitimacy concerns) that have become more of a problem now that this conflict that has slowly become an enduring issue.

Analyst: S2A1

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The Wire - February 16, 2024