Highlights:

“Of course these are predictive models so we have to take them with a grain of salt here. And also this is of course predicated on all of us going out to vote.”
“Opinion polls are completely obsolete when it comes to the predictions of the Primary Model… Norpoth’s model is the only one that has for more than a hundred years selected the winner of virtually all presidential campaigns which is 25 of the last 27 elections.”
“This Democracy Institute poll is obviously huge given how they were able to accurately predict the Brexit vote and Trump in 2016.”
Trafalgar Group specializes in polling Rust Belt states like Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota. They were right in predicting that Trump would win the Rust Belt in 2016.”

Timestamps:

[02:32] The predictive models of election forecasts
[03:37] Helmut Norpoth’s Primary Model
[05:53] President Trump and Biden’s votes in the primaries
[07:26] The Democracy Institute prediction
[08:37] The Trafalgar Group

Resources:

The Primary Model
Democracy Institute
Trafalgar Group
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Ep. 200 Here’s what Election Forecasters Who Predicted Trump’s 2016 Win are Saying About 2020!!!