Morning Wire XX
[0] While inflation continues to take a heavy toll on Americans' pocketbooks, there's growing hope for those looking for a new house.
[1] After months of houses selling at record prices, the market's showing some signs of cooling off.
[2] Is the seller's market shifting to a buyer's market?
[3] I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire editor -in -chief John Bickley.
[4] It's Saturday, July 16th, and this is Morning Wire.
[5] Is our fiscal system penalizing marriage among poor families?
[6] families.
[7] A new report by the Fed finds new evidence for the so -called marriage tax.
[8] And Pope Francis is following through on his promise to get more women involved in the leadership of the Catholic Church.
[9] The Pope has named three women to the dicastery of bishops.
[10] We discussed the historic move.
[11] Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire.
[12] Stay tuned.
[13] We have the news you need to know.
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[23] Code Wire today.
[24] After months of record -setting prices in the housing market, home buyers are finally starting to see some relief.
[25] Here with the details on what's causing the cool down and whether a real estate crash could be coming is Daily Wire Senior Editor Cabot Phillips.
[26] Caput, walk us through the numbers, just how much of a dip have we seen?
[27] So we talked in the show about how if you wanted to buy a home this spring and summer, you were going to be paying anywhere from 15 to 25 percent more than the year before.
[28] And And as prices hit record after record, we kept wondering, is it ever going to slow down?
[29] Well, it appears to have finally cooled off, at least a bit.
[30] According to a few different metrics, home buyers are finally getting some relief.
[31] For example, in June, 15 % of home sales fell through.
[32] Now, this might sound bad, but real estate experts say it's actually a sign that buyers either found better, more affordable options after they'd already gone under contract, or that the contracts they had signed fell through because buyers had more leverage to negotiate now that there are more houses on the market.
[33] It's also an indication that fewer buyers are waiving inspections and appraisal contingencies.
[34] Remember, a lot of people were going into contracts without any of those.
[35] So essentially, all of this is evidence that buyers aren't as desperate as they were earlier in the year, and that's a good thing for the market.
[36] Yeah, that could be good news.
[37] What other evidence have we seen?
[38] Well, first off, mortgage applications are way down.
[39] The latest data from June shows a 16 % decrease from the year earlier.
[40] And the latest numbers from May also show a 19 % decrease in the number of total home sales, compared to the same month last year.
[41] We also saw a 13 % uptick in the number of homes going on the market that month and simple supply and demand.
[42] More houses to pick from means fewer bidding wars and lower prices.
[43] People looking on Zillow or Redfin right now will also be seeing something that they probably haven't seen in a long time, and that is price cuts.
[44] Oh, yeah, I remember those.
[45] Last month, about 1 in 10 homes on the market had cut their listing price.
[46] And in some cities that had experienced the highest price increases, that number was as high as 40%.
[47] And so if you had given up on living in your dream city last year, maybe go have another look online because you're going to see more options to choose from and maybe even some deals to be found.
[48] A lot of people will be glad to hear that.
[49] So what's driving the shift?
[50] There are a few things.
[51] Obviously, inflation is playing a factor as it is with everything in the economy.
[52] As prices go up on everything else, purchasing power goes down and more Americans have decided to wait to buy home because they're nervous about the state of the economy or simply don't have the money on hand to make a down payment.
[53] But the number one factor here, without a doubt, is the increase in interest rates.
[54] It's econ 101.
[55] Again, as it becomes more expensive to borrow money, fewer people will be able to afford homes.
[56] Keep in mind, this time last year, rates were down at 2 .9%.
[57] They're now at 5 .75%.
[58] And as a result, the average American now spends 36 % of their income on housing.
[59] That's the highest percentage that we've seen since the 1980s.
[60] And for more context, in January, that number was just 24%.
[61] So 24 to 36 % in just a few months.
[62] Yeah, it's steep.
[63] Very steep.
[64] And that spike in just a few short months pushed a lot of people out of the house hunt.
[65] So while it is a good thing for many buyers that the market is cooling down, one main reason that's happening is because a lot of other people just aren't able to afford a home right now.
[66] So there's some good and some bad there.
[67] And when you start talking about the housing market, the other big question people have is whether a crash similar to what we saw in 2008 is coming.
[68] What can you tell us there?
[69] Well, as always on this sort of thing, it just depends on who you ask.
[70] But the prevailing narrative right now is that we're not heading for a housing crash.
[71] At least that's what the current data seem to show.
[72] First, lenders have been much more strict in recent years about who they're giving money to.
[73] So the average credit score of a borrower today is $7 .51 compared to $6 .99 back in 2010.
[74] Also, because of the spike in home prices, homeowners today have a lot more equity than at any point in American history.
[75] So they've got options to refinance or access cash if they get in trouble.
[76] All right.
[77] So one final question for those not buying a home, what's the rental market looking like?
[78] Yeah, that's one area where you're still going to be paying a premium.
[79] According to apartment list, the rents on new leases are up around 14 % so far this year.
[80] And that comes after they rose 17 % in 2021.
[81] So when it comes to housing right now, like everything else in America, you're going to be paying more than you're used to paying.
[82] Yeah, it's just the unfortunate reality.
[83] Well, at least there's some relief on the horizon.
[84] Hopefully, yeah.
[85] Cabot, thanks for reporting.
[86] anytime.
[87] That's the Daily Wire senior editor, Cabot Phillips.
[88] Coming up, a new report by the Fed suggests there is a marriage penalty.
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[92] Is our tax system penalizing marriage?
[93] A new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta finds new evidence for the so -called marriage tax or marriage penalty.
[94] What does this mean, especially for low -income unmarried mothers?
[95] Here to discuss is Carrie Sheffield, senior policy analyst at Independent Women's Voice.
[96] So, Carrie, first off, what did this new study by the Atlanta Fed find?
[97] Thanks for having me, Georgia.
[98] The report looked at what happens to an individual's earnings.
[99] earnings after they get married.
[100] They found that because of the way certain social welfare benefits programs are structured, getting married actually hurts the household incomes for some women.
[101] Essentially what happens is that when someone, usually single mother, is eligible for welfare programs like public housing, housing vouchers, food stamps, or Medicaid, they must fall below certain income thresholds.
[102] If that woman then gets married to a spouse who is working, the household then earns too much, and those taxpayer -funded benefits disappear.
[103] So essentially, some women have a disincentive to marry or what's sometimes called a marriage tax.
[104] So how big of an impact are we talking about?
[105] How significant is the marriage tax?
[106] Well, it's complicated, and it has everything to do with income brackets.
[107] If you're a wealthier person who marries another wealthier person, you actually see a boost in household earnings.
[108] But if you're poor and marrying someone else poor, there is a hit to your household earnings.
[109] The researchers said the variation in marriage taxation is particularly striking and ranges across our sample from negative 74 .4 % to positive 45 .8%.
[110] For low -income single females with children, Fed researchers said that this so -called marriage tax is very severe.
[111] They said that absent the tax, 13 .7 % more would marry each year.
[112] Cumulatively, they said that 7 .5 % more would be married by age 35.
[113] So what are policymakers saying about this so -called marriage tax?
[114] Well, this issue isn't exactly new.
[115] Republican senators like Marco Rubio, Florida and Tim Scott of South Carolina, have been talking about this issue for a while.
[116] For them, they say this study confirms the laws of economics.
[117] When you tax something, you get less of it.
[118] When you subsidize something, you get more of it.
[119] These senators say this is another case of well -intentioned liberal policy that has detrimental unintended consequences.
[120] Now, in separate research, Harvard -trained economist Raj Chetty found that being born into a two -parent home is the top variable as to whether a child grows up in poverty, drops out of school, or gets into drugs and gangs.
[121] Jason Riley, a researcher for the Manhattan Institute for Public Policy, has pointed out the broader trend that began with the Great Society Welfare Expansion in the 1960s.
[122] In the 60s, nearly 75 percent of black babies were born into two -parent married homes.
[123] Now it's the opposite.
[124] More than 70 % of black babies are born into unmarried homes.
[125] Some progressive lawmakers counter and say that the reason for the collapse in the black family is due to structural racism, including the rise of mass incarceration among black men.
[126] But Riley points out that the expansion of those welfare programs predated the rise in crime, which predated the rise in incarceration.
[127] This new Federal Reserve Research will likely renew calls to restructure the tax code in ways that won't punish family formation.
[128] Right.
[129] I mean, this is a new report, but definitely a long -time issue.
[130] Carrie, thanks for reporting.
[131] Thank you.
[132] That was Carrie Sheffield, senior policy analyst at Independent Women's Voice.
[133] In a first for the Catholic Church, Pope Francis has named three women to sit on the Vatican Council that vets bishop nominations.
[134] The move is the latest in a string of progressive reforms the Pope is set in motion, causing controversy within the church.
[135] Daily Wire investigative reporter Marade El Lorty is here with more details for us.
[136] Hey, Marad, what should we know about this move by the Pope?
[137] Hey, so Pope Francis on Wednesday tapped three women to serve on this council called the DeCastri for bishops.
[138] The dechastry, which is also known as the congregation for bishops, is the body that vets bishop nominations and submits its recommendations to the pope on who should become a new bishop.
[139] This gives the decastery a lot of power since it oversees most of the church's 5 ,300 bishops across the globe.
[140] Up until now, the DeCastries members included church higher -ups like cardinals and other bishops, but now the first women will serve on the council.
[141] Two of the three women are nuns, sister Raphael Patrini, who's already a high -ranking Vatican administrator, and sister Yvonne Rheingote, who was the superior general of a religious order, the daughters have married the helper.
[142] The other female appointment to the DeCastry is a laywoman Maria Leia Zervino, who is president of a global Catholic women's group.
[143] Okay, so this is a pretty powerful, position that no woman has ever held in the church before.
[144] Right.
[145] Now, this move ties into the larger picture of conservative versus progressive forces putting pressure on the church, right?
[146] Right.
[147] Well, some groups have jumped at this opportunity to push the church to be more progressive in a way that would conflict with church doctrine.
[148] The women's ordination conference, a group that's considered heretical that pushes for women priests, said there is, quote, deep irony in allowing women to serve in the decastry but barring them from actually being priests and bishops.
[149] However, historically, while the church is very clear that only men can be priests, women have taken on high -ranking roles in the church.
[150] One example is St. Catherine of Siena, who spent years advising the Pope at the time, Pope Gregory the 11th.
[151] She was named a doctor of the church.
[152] I spoke with Teresa Tomeo, author and syndicated Catholic talk show host, to discuss Pope Francis's decision.
[153] I actually think it's a net positive, and this goes back to something the Pope promised back in 2013, early in his pontificate, that he was going to look for a deeper theology for women in the church.
[154] Women have done so much in the church and leadership throughout the centuries.
[155] And they've been very involved, both at the parish level, at the diocese level, and chancellery positions and other positions.
[156] So I think this is just adding to that.
[157] The Pope has been very clear that he's not interested in even discussing women priests.
[158] Tamayo also spoke to us about flawed media coverage of the church and how we can correct it.
[159] They do not have a real sense of how the church operates and they think the church should operate.
[160] as a democracy.
[161] They don't understand that equality does not equal sameness.
[162] So to them, they're going to keep pushing this, quote -unquote, women -priest issues until the end of time, because they believe it should be so and they want people to be convinced.
[163] I think what we have to do is I'm always telling my listeners that we have to keep our eyes on Jesus, the author, and finish of our faith.
[164] So overall, while Pope Francis can sometimes lean in a progressive direction, this particular move to name women to the DeCastry has roots in church history.
[165] All right.
[166] Well, thanks, Marade, for that context.
[167] Thanks, John.
[168] That was Daily Wire investigative reporter, Marade Allorty.
[169] Other stories we're tracking this week.
[170] Bill Gates is donating $20 billion to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, saying he will eventually be off the list of the world's richest people.
[171] Twitter users experienced a 45 -minute outage on Thursday, one of the platform's lengthiest outages in years.
[172] X -ray imaging was used to discover a secret self -portrait of famed painter Vincent Van Gogh.
[173] The self -portrait was hidden behind his painting, head of a peasant woman.
[174] New York City's Monkeypox vaccination website crashed this week as over 15 ,000 people tried to schedule a time to get inoculated.
[175] Florida's new law banning abortion after 15 weeks will remain in effect in the midst of a court battle.
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