2025 NL East Team Previews

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[20] Welcome to Rates and Barrels.

[21] It's Tuesday, February 25th.

[22] Derek Van Ryper, Eno Saris here with you.

[23] It is our 2025 NL East team previews.

[24] We got one more episode after this one to wrap up the series.

[25] We'll have the AL East team previews coming up on Wednesday of this week.

[26] So if you want to catch up on the past ones, each of the last two weeks has two episodes just like this one.

[27] And you can join our Discord with the link in the show description.

[28] Talk about your favorite teams.

[29] Talk about our predictions and projections.

[30] Talk about your fantasy team.

[31] all that in one place.

[32] Just hit the link in the show description.

[33] If you're watching us on YouTube, smash the like button on this video.

[34] We would appreciate that.

[35] You know, I know we're in full -on chaos mode as far as draft season goes because I have one draft already done for the day as we start a recording.

[36] I have another draft tonight, sometime after the episode comes out, and somehow in between meetings and the rest of life will happen.

[37] i'm on three slow drafts right now uh and like they're vastly different like one's a draft and hold one's a 20 team keeper it's just like every time you have to be like and where are we now and who am i talking to and like yes now the radios have started calling so i get these i have to actually answer the random phone numbers on my phone because i don't actually keep track of the radios and this is st louis now the producer's always like are you ready and i'm like just tell me what city it is and what we're talking about just So I have five seconds of prep time.

[38] You should save the number in your phone just so it at least tells you what city it is that's calling.

[39] That would give you one small bit of prep before you answer.

[40] It doesn't always tell you even from the zip code because sometimes they call from a 1 -800 number because they're part of a conglomerate or whatever.

[41] The difficulties of being a podcaster, a writer, a content creator of any kind this time of year, all sorts of little problems.

[42] Just like no sense for the calendar.

[43] Just absolute no sense.

[44] I'm just not good with calendars.

[45] My wife is always annoyed at me that I don't put stuff on the calendar or look at the calendar.

[46] You probably have noticed this.

[47] You put things on the calendar.

[48] I don't react to them.

[49] I don't know what's going on.

[50] I'm like this kind of person that I get to my desk in the morning and I'm like, what's going on today?

[51] You get there, you send me the Slack.

[52] What time we pot?

[53] What are we talking about?

[54] I'm like, two spreadsheets.

[55] One's the calendar.

[56] One's the topics.

[57] They're there.

[58] It's all there.

[59] So we're a good combo, dude.

[60] Yeah, man. We got to balance each other out, man. And I've said this about Nando before, too.

[61] But it's important to have people in your life that color outside the lines.

[62] Because for my entire life, if you handed me a coloring book and some crayons, I'm not going outside the lines.

[63] I'm coloring that thing as neatly as possible.

[64] And that's not a fun way to live life.

[65] I'm telling you as someone that has done that for 40 years, it is not the most fun way to live life.

[66] So you need people that can encourage you.

[67] There's some not fun things on the other side.

[68] You'll have a day where just everybody is mad at you because you forgot something important.

[69] Oh yeah, but I have days where I'm just mad at myself all day because I forgot something important despite writing everything down.

[70] So if it's not everybody else that's mad at you, it's just yourself.

[71] That's how I function.

[72] But let's get into the previews.

[73] Let's talk about these Philadelphia Phillies to start off because they won the division last year.

[74] If you're watching us on YouTube, you'll see on the bottom it says just as good as 2024.

[75] Is that good?

[76] I think they are maybe in a difficult spot just because the Braves had a ton of key injuries last year between Acuna and Riley, Strider, Albies.

[77] They had a very significant amount of lost time.

[78] Free did, I believe, miss some time too.

[79] So they had to deal with a lot as a team.

[80] That was not the Atlanta team over the course of the year that we thought they'd be going into the season.

[81] because of bad health.

[82] And then with the Mets, they are Steve Cohen's spending machine.

[83] He's been ramped up.

[84] They got Juan Soto.

[85] So it's like those two things, those two pressures within the division are very significant right now as far as how the Phillies operate.

[86] They've already sort of pushed their own budget pretty high into what seems like ownership's comfort level.

[87] Now they're kind of living in that space of most of the stuff they do.

[88] Seems like it ends up being cash neutral because when you hit your...

[89] internal limit, that's sort of how it goes, right?

[90] So in Max Kepler, out Austin Hayes, in via trade, Jesus Lizardo.

[91] They did bring in Jordan Romano to help in the bullpen, but they lost Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez.

[92] I think in terms of the overall offseason, they're a little worse in the bullpen.

[93] They're a little better in the back of the rotation because of Lizardo, and I think maybe they're a little better.

[94] with kepler maybe a lot better with kepler than they were with hayes because kepler at least plays on the big side of a platoon so i do think it's good to be as good as the phillies were in 2024 but i just worry that they're gonna lose a little bit of ground simply because of what happened with two of the teams chasing them It's strange to be in this spot where it's like Mike Trout and the MVP races where it's like the third year in a row when you had 10 wins above for replacement.

[95] And it's like, yeah, he's still good.

[96] He's probably still should win it.

[97] And everyone's talking about everybody else, you know, like the Koshwarver Phillies, the Bryce Harper.

[98] These guys are all still good.

[99] But they didn't win it last year, and so there's this fatigue, I think, a little bit.

[100] Nick Castellanos talked about it a little bit with local reporters, where he said that when we didn't win it all, y 'all wrote a bunch of mean stuff about us.

[101] And so this year's great, because if we lose, you were right, and you'll be in a good mood.

[102] And it'll be good for you.

[103] And if we win, it'll be a surprise to everybody, and it'll be great.

[104] So there's that kind of house money feeling.

[105] I think it's too early for a precipitous decline for most of these guys, even though a lot of them are in the decline phase.

[106] I think that happens with big budget veteran teams.

[107] Even the Castellanos, who I think...

[108] is in the midst of a pretty rapid decline, he has become less important to this team over time.

[109] You know, there are better and better players around him.

[110] So, you know, what is Nick Castellanos to this team right now?

[111] Like the fifth best hitter or the sixth best hitter?

[112] You know, he's not somebody that they need to be one of the top three or four guys anymore.

[113] And so he can be...

[114] the embodiment of found money, you know, like when he hits one of his 22, 23 homers, you know, it will turn a game around because it'll come from like the sixth slot and it'll drive in four guys, you know?

[115] So I think that this is as good as a team as ever.

[116] And in some of the, even the veterans, I think are going to have some bounce backs off of last year.

[117] They're still young enough, even in their veteran -ness to have better years going forward.

[118] I think given the chaotic state of the world, I expect Nick Castellanos to hit a lot of awkward home runs this year.

[119] So I'm just generally thinking about what's happening.

[120] I think this might be a little bit of a dead cat bounce, as you say, for Nick Castellanos, an oatmeal -y player that will exceed expectations.

[121] I think Romulo is still good.

[122] I think they've written his epithets too early.

[123] The workloads he's taken on, especially as many times as the Phillies have extended his season by making postseason runs, the wear and tear is going to catch up to him eventually.

[124] I think some of that is what has happened.

[125] But I do think there's been an overcorrection on the player that JT Realmuto is, where now he's become a value.

[126] When you look at this team and say, who is their rule of five?

[127] They're guys that are out there every single day.

[128] I mean, I think it's Schwarber, Trey Turner, Bryce Harper.

[129] Castellanos is probably still that guy for one more year.

[130] Alec Boehm by projections comes in fifth, but they're going to lean pretty heavily on the likes of Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh and Real Muto and Kepler.

[131] But they're built to do that platoon, even with the bottom half of their lineup.

[132] This looks like a team that's still going to score a lot of runs, even if you were aging the core gracefully.

[133] And I think that's a fair way to age them.

[134] I think this is a group that largely is aging and will continue to age well.

[135] Yeah, and if you're talking about guys who are elite, and, you know, as far as, like, Kyle Schwarber and aging, like, people will be like, oh, you barely body, barely aging.

[136] No, dude, this is a guy who used to steal bases.

[137] Like, this is an athlete.

[138] He just wasn't a very good defender.

[139] That's about it.

[140] So I think they're all going to age fairly gracefully.

[141] Other than Castellanos, the reason I...

[142] take him outside of that is because he chases a lot.

[143] We've talked a lot on the show about how if you chase on pitches outside of the zone, your strikeout rate starts to really balloon at some point because that ages poorly.

[144] But another thing I want to say about the rule of five is it may actually be a rule of six for most teams because somebody brought this up on the Discord.

[145] It's just this idea that the catcher himself has to almost be quote -unquote platoon.

[146] The catcher needs a platoon partner.

[147] And so you can almost take that backup catcher and the starting catcher almost out of the whole equation, right?

[148] And if you do that, then you only have three bench spots.

[149] So that does make things more difficult.

[150] And this team in particular, I think that there might be somebody who has to play a little bit more than they had in the past.

[151] And the reason I bring that up is that their big offseason signing was Max Kepler.

[152] And as much as Max Kepler has been good and maybe should have been better against lefties, he's been pretty atrocious against lefties.

[153] And so I think Max Kepler is going to be in a straight -up platoon with Johan Rojas, who's the right -handed center fielder.

[154] And it's not that Max Kepler is going to play center field.

[155] It's that he's going to play left field against righties and against lefties.

[156] Johan Rojas will be center, and Brandon Marshall will move over.

[157] Guess what that means for Brandon Marsh?

[158] He might have to play more this year.

[159] So I did this weird comp thing.

[160] And I know this is, you know, there's so many levels to this that it might get a little annoying.

[161] But I just want to, this is, these are Brandon Marsh comps.

[162] And so it's, you have to be projected to hit 15 homers by oopsie.

[163] You have to be projected to steal 15 bags by oopsie.

[164] You have to have at least a 240 projected batting average by oopsie.

[165] At least a 320 projected OBP.

[166] I know.

[167] I know this is a little bit annoying, but this is the type of player that Marsh is.

[168] He doesn't have the greatest batting average, but he has a decent one.

[169] He has good OBPs.

[170] He has good power, good stolen bases.

[171] So after all that, I then cut off the top guys because they were all, I mean, superstars like Ellie De La Cruz on this list.

[172] You know what I mean?

[173] It's people under 600 plate appearances predicted.

[174] So what I think is interesting about it is you scan over to the WRC Plus on the end and you say, oh, wow, there's some pretty good players on this list.

[175] Now, why is Ronald Acuna on this list?

[176] Because you're just not going to give him full playing time because he's returning from injury.

[177] But everybody else on this, and maybe that's true for Christian Yelich too, right?

[178] And maybe Matt McClain.

[179] But generally, this list might be an interesting place to bet.

[180] that their quality of play is going to produce more playing time than we're giving them right now in depth chart analysis or whatever we're doing, right?

[181] Because if these guys are this good in this few played appearances, why not play more?

[182] And I actually think Marsh, Luis Garcia Jr., Garrett Mitchell, Jason Dominguez, maybe even Josh Lowe, all five of these guys are good bets.

[183] to beat their playing time projections.

[184] And even at their playing time projections are already good players to roster because they're going to not hurt your batting average, give you power and speed.

[185] And in daily leagues, they all get bumps.

[186] People ask about bumps for daily leagues.

[187] This is the group.

[188] I mean, this is really a great group to think about because these are cheaper players that all get bumps in daily leagues.

[189] Yeah, I like that board quite a bit.

[190] And I think with Brandon Marsh, there's a little bit of fatigue in that he hasn't quite been the player.

[191] People thought he might be as a prospect.

[192] There's just been more swing and miss that's hung around than expected.

[193] And look, he does enough things well to overcome that.

[194] And you're right, maybe the addition of Kepler is something that leads them to at least give semi -regular opportunities against same -handed pitching.

[195] To Marsh, that bumps up that overall projection.

[196] That's something that could make him significantly undervalued.

[197] But this is a group that, I mean, generally that group of hitters, I like most of them at cost.

[198] I still think Trey Turner's fine kind of in that mid -second round range.

[199] I'm not that worried about the health of Bryce Harper.

[200] I think an offseason to rest and recover from the back stuff that was bugging him, especially early in the year last year.

[201] I think that's only a good thing.

[202] So I like the way this lineup is built.

[203] I like the way they're priced from a fantasy perspective as well.

[204] We've talked a lot about their pitch.

[205] During the pitching previews and having Wheeler and Nola at the top, it's a one -two workhorse tandem kind of co -aces where I think at this point of their respective careers, we look at Wheeler and say he's a half notch better.

[206] But this is a really good rotation as it lines up right now.

[207] Christopher Sanchez is someone that I think you've really been talking up a little bit this draft season.

[208] Ranger Suarez continues to exceed expectations.

[209] And then Lizardo, I think with health, is maybe better than both of Sanchez and Suarez.

[210] But he doesn't even have to be to be an upgrade over the likes of Taiwan Walker.

[211] So, you know, one through five, this is one of the better rotations you're going to see.

[212] We got the oopsie projections up right now.

[213] All five of these starters projected for an ERA below four.

[214] So that's a really strong group across the board.

[215] I think they're going to lean really heavily on this five throughout the regular season and into the postseason, too, because I think this is going to be a playoff team.

[216] yeah i mean this is a just the dumbest thing but lizardo you know if he's sitting over 96 i think i like him a lot more if he's sitting under than when he's sitting under 96.

[217] he just doesn't have he has this kind of dead zoney shape on his fastballs where the shape isn't great But he used to be one of the hardest throwing left -handers in the league.

[218] I don't know if people really realized how hard he threw.

[219] I mean, at his peak, Luzardo was 96 .8 in 2023.

[220] And when you look at his good years, you're like, oh, his good years are when he was 96 plus.

[221] His bad years are when he was 96 minus.

[222] I know that's dumb, but it is kind of true because his fastballs don't have the greatest shape.

[223] I think there's just a lot less pressure on him to come into a situation like this where the team is great and he can be in when he's at his best and, you know, be on the IL if he's not at his best.

[224] And they'll have some depth in the embodiment of perhaps Andrew Painter, who is...

[225] One of the more exciting young pitching prospects, I'd probably have him two to Jackson Jobe or three behind Bubba Chandler and Jackson Jobe among all pitching prospects.

[226] And so if Luzardo breaks or somebody else does, what they're doing is kind of slow -walking Painter because he doesn't have a lot of innings, but he might be really important innings at some point.

[227] Right.

[228] I could see Painter, especially in the second half, injuries are going to come for this group.

[229] It always does.

[230] I could see Painter being their third -best starter.

[231] That's in the range of outcomes, and it doesn't mean that anyone was bad.

[232] It speaks to how good Andrew Painter should be.

[233] It seems like he's maybe a little undervalued in just about all leagues right now, kind of living in that sweet spot where he hasn't made it all the way back into non -AFL games yet, but he's shown he's healthy enough, and I feel like that's the perfect time to sort of trade for someone about to break through post -injury because the stuff looked like it was back in Arizona.

[234] The bullpen is the other question here.

[235] They had problems a couple of years ago.

[236] They've done a really good job trying to out -stuff it, maybe with some command questions.

[237] I mentioned before they brought in Jordan Romano from the Blue Jays.

[238] Joe Ross is there to add some depth, but they did lose Carlos Estevez, and maybe more importantly, Jeff Hoffman.

[239] So how does this bullpen grade out for you, and is this the relative weakness on this club, even though it's much improved compared to what we saw a few years ago?

[240] Yeah, I do think it is down a bit.

[241] I'm a little worried about Jordan Romano because The fact that the team that knew the most about him cut him loose.

[242] I don't know if maybe they were being pessimistic about it or if they had just different, sometimes doctors have differing opinions about likelihood of return to grace and likelihood of even good health going forward, whatever it is.

[243] But I sort of, Romano is one of the closer ones that I'm most nervous about.

[244] Maybe not even making it to opening day is the closer one.

[245] Yeah, a lot of speculation on this show being done in the other bullpen seats.

[246] I think we'll get to a few that we like a little later in the show when we have our sleepers for the division.

[247] But it's not a bad bullpen.

[248] It's not necessarily elite, though.

[249] I think that's the one area where you think about Dave Dombrowski in that front office and what they might be doing come trade deadline time, probably adding relievers.

[250] Again.

[251] I do like the Strom -Kirkering -Alvarado.

[252] It's a pretty good lefty -righty combination.

[253] If you'd put a real awesome close...

[254] If you put Tanner Scott, that would be a lot of lefties.

[255] But if you put a Tanner Scott on the top of it, I would have been like, oh, this is a good bullpen again.

[256] But with Romano there, I'm just a little bit more nervous.

[257] Does feel like we're picking some nits a little bit.

[258] Let's go to Pakoda.

[259] Look at the win total projection for the season.

[260] 85 .3 is the number that Pakoda is showing us right now for the Phillies.

[261] Too hot, too cold, or just right?

[262] Wow, they beat that number three years in a row.

[263] It's too cold.

[264] What's so much worse on this team?

[265] Yeah, I'm having a hard time finding it.

[266] One thing I noticed, too, is last year they won the division.

[267] They had 95 wins.

[268] Both the Braves and Mets finished with 89.

[269] I think there's room with the current state of the Nats and Marlins for these three teams to be close to last year's win totals.

[270] That was part of my thinking as well.

[271] So even if they've lost a little ground because of what's going on with the other two teams battling them, I still think 85 -3 feels a bit light to me. It would take a couple of devastating injuries to those core.

[272] Harper and or Turner plus one or two of their starting pitchers for them to really feel the pain and drift down closer to that 83 -85 win range.

[273] I think this is a wide open window for at least one more year for this Phillies team.

[274] It's interesting when you're looking at a buyer and you're projecting them and you say, oh, okay, well, they don't have a lot of great...

[275] you know starting pitching depth beyond painter or the reliever like the sixth and seventh relievers aren't that good and the projection system is going to give the sixth and seventh relievers you know 50 40 innings or whatever whatever a sixth or seventh reliever gets you know and and it's going to give the eighth and ninth pitchers like 100 innings combined and if you take those and you're like wow they're those guys are not very good and so i'm giving them i'm giving this team 400 innings of like a five era from the from these depth guys right The Phillies aren't the kind of team that will give those to those guys.

[276] They will just go get someone else.

[277] But how do you model that?

[278] It's not easy.

[279] It's an assumption, but based on past behaviors, it seems like a pretty safe assumption that they will address those needs via trade once they arise over the course of the season.

[280] But I'm with you.

[281] I think that was a too cold projection from Pakoda on the Phillies.

[282] Let's move on to the Braves, a team that looks like it's primed for a healthy bounce back toward the top of the division, maybe all the way to the top of the division.

[283] Look at this lineup, dude.

[284] Oh, what a beautiful lineup.

[285] 2023 versus 2024.

[286] I mean, they had a lot of guys go off for career years or near career years.

[287] And then the absence of Acuna, Riley missed time.

[288] I mentioned Albies before.

[289] Michael Harris missed some time.

[290] That's just in the group of hitters.

[291] Big changes this offseason, right?

[292] Like, yeah, you get all those guys healthy again.

[293] You don't lose that much on the position player side, right?

[294] Darnot and Laureano, Urshela, Duvall, Merrifield, Wendell.

[295] Those are the kind of guys you get in season.

[296] Not a problem.

[297] You're not worried about losing them.

[298] They did add Jerks and Profar to boost up the corner outfield, which puts less playing time on Jared Kelnick, as this roster is currently built.

[299] Buys him a little time at the beginning of the season with Acuna down, too, potentially, if he's slowed for a few weeks or whatever it takes for him to get all the way back.

[300] The bigger losses, I think, were on the pitching side, losing Max Freed and really just looking at the internal depth chart and saying, yeah, we're good.

[301] No Freed, no Morton.

[302] We're just going to go for it with what we have.

[303] And I think that puts a lot of faith into someone like Spencer Schwellenbach.

[304] It puts a lot of faith into their pitching development that they'll get something bigger out of A .J. Smith -Shava or Hurston Waldrop this year.

[305] This is still a really, really good Atlanta lineup, though.

[306] I mean, you look at the top of the projections, Olsen, Riley, Albies, Marcelo Zuna.

[307] Michael Harris are probably the five, but Profar is going to play a ton.

[308] Acuna is going to play a ton.

[309] They're built to just not use backups.

[310] And we've wondered if the lack of even slight load management has been part of the reason why the injuries piled up so much on this team a year ago.

[311] But I think they look just as good, if not better on paper, in this position player group that they did this time last season.

[312] Don't think they're way better set up to give any of their infielders a lot of rest.

[313] I don't think you want to play Nick Allen a lot until maybe Nacho Alvarez Jr. comes up and establishes himself somehow and starts off maybe in a utility type atmosphere.

[314] But in the outfield, I do think the additions of Brian De La Cruz, Jared Kelnick, and Jerickson Profar over time have given them some ability to give at least Acuna some rest they have to of course they have to have a starting outfield before Acuna comes back too so there's some of that but I think having Kelnick and De La Cruz righty lefty there is a pretty good situation for giving Acuna rest even after he comes back Marcel Azuna is getting older do you want to give him some rest Michael Harris Jr. has suffered injuries, you know, so many, so many years, like maybe you want to give him some rest.

[315] So Calnick and Brian De La Cruz are, I think it's sort of above average depth for, for, for, for the Braves, but on the infield, it's as much Albies and Riley and Olsen as you can handle, because they don't really have anybody that you really want in the lineup on those days.

[316] I see some pro far at first, but I can only believe that once Acuna is back.

[317] And even then, I don't, I don't know.

[318] So if you want, full playing time I do think that Albie's kind of year you know every other year injury thing and Olsen's even Olsen's decline last year could be somewhat related to the load that they have had to bear I mean they play all the time and Olsen just looked On some level, it's tired last year.

[319] So I wonder if just not going deep in the playoffs and having a bit of a down year last year, I will put an up arrow next to Olsen, Riley, Albies.

[320] Harris, and Sean Murphy even.

[321] I think all those guys are going to be much better than they were last year.

[322] I think they're going to be better, at least a little bit better than they were last year.

[323] The only down arrow I have right here is Marcel Azuna coming off of such a peak -type season at his age.

[324] And then Ronald Acuna Jr., I think the projections are a little aggressive for somebody coming off a second ACL.

[325] I don't know if you need to put a thing in your projection system that is like, did he have ACL surgery this offseason?

[326] Yes, no. Just knock off like 20 stolen bases and then see what the calculator says and draft more based on that.

[327] I get it.

[328] He's a phenomenal talent, but it's the second ACL tear.

[329] He's already told us it just doesn't seem like he's going to be as aggressive on the base pass, at least initially and maybe ever.

[330] Like that's just something that's a part of his game that doesn't have to be dialed up to 100 anymore.

[331] He could still be very good without it.

[332] It's not just that, though.

[333] He didn't lift the ball for power when he came back last time either.

[334] It was strange.

[335] I mean, the start of his season before he got hurt last year was strange.

[336] What he did the first time after an ACL tear wasn't elite.

[337] It's a tough profile for 2025 to be really dialed into paying a second -round pick price for, even though maybe in the first half he's figuring it out, he's rusty, and by the second half he looks like himself.

[338] That's possible, but I think it's going to be, I hope it's not, but I think it's going to be a little bit of a bumpy ride as he tries to get back from this second tear.

[339] If I was just sort of guesstimating, I'd give him a 275 average, 20 homers, and 20 steals.

[340] Still very good, right?

[341] You're not missing badly at ADP if you do that, but you might be working off of your bench a little bit.

[342] I mean, that's something that Michael Harris could beat if he was just a little bit healthier.

[343] Yeah, yeah, it's definitely possible.

[344] I think with Sean Murphy, I do like him as a bounce -back catcher.

[345] Drake Baldwin, one of their best prospects, should be up soon.

[346] Looks like another real -deal core sort of player.

[347] So how they manage the playing time this year versus the future, I believe it's the last year of Marcel Azuna's contract.

[348] You assume Azuna's gone at the end of the year, and I think that's a fair assumption based on load management, all these things we're talking about, some of the long -term contracts they have, that I think you can see the Baldwin -Murphy playing time.

[349] being more balanced or both of those guys having enough to be really good in 2026 might be a little tricky for drake baldwin in 2025 if we get the bounce back we're expecting from sean murphy we should kick it over to the pitching side of this and it's still a very good rotation chris sale healthy now wasn't healthy at the end of last season he's a guy that i think we're watching really closely this spring just to see like where where is it at because when the season was on the line he was not available in September last year.

[350] So where do you fall on Chris Sale at this moment, given that it's the early days of spring training and we don't have red ink next to his name indicating that he's missing some time?

[351] I still just moved him down to my rankings one spot because I was looking at him versus Garrett Crochet and I actually had similar, slightly more innings for Garrett Crochet projected because I was looking over Chris Sale's history and I can't.

[352] I can't give him 181 innings like we're looking at right now at all.

[353] And then I realized that I had a better strikeout rate projected for Garrett Crochet and I had a better ERA for Garrett Crochet.

[354] So Chris Ayl with a down error all the way to number seven.

[355] Oh, way down.

[356] Yeah, still a really great pitcher.

[357] One thing I think that some people forget is just how it ended last year.

[358] He was not able to pitch after mid -September.

[359] And in games that they desperately needed him to pitch.

[360] So that wasn't just a day -to -day injury.

[361] There was something going on.

[362] I think it was a back.

[363] But the back is just not at all helpful a description.

[364] Because there are upper shoulder back parts.

[365] Is that towards the labrum and up in there?

[366] Or is it spinal?

[367] So there's whatever it was.

[368] We don't know what it was.

[369] And it kept him out of huge games for the Braves.

[370] And it ended his season like a month early.

[371] So, you know, as much as he was healthy last year, he also wasn't.

[372] I think even with my seven ranking, I'm just not going to have a lot of sale.

[373] Because, you know, I think that's A, other people have him higher.

[374] And B, it's sometimes, unless I have IL slots, it's going to be a little bit scary for me to take him as my number one.

[375] But that being said, it's still a very good trio at the top once Spencer Strider gets back between Sale, Schwellenbach, and eventually Strider.

[376] And then I think the depth here is where I'm most curious.

[377] I'm seeing a little more interest in Grant Holmes.

[378] Some of the sharper folks I've been drafting against have been into what he could bring to the table.

[379] I see oops, he's got him for a sub four ERA.

[380] He kind of ends up being more important based on what they chose to do this offseason.

[381] Looked really good in a split role last year.

[382] for this Atlanta team.

[383] So I can see one of Lopez or Holmes or possibly even both just being a little underdrafted.

[384] Projections will probably say the better value is Holmes based on where they're going ADP -wise, but they were right about Ronaldo Lopez.

[385] They made the right call, giving him that multi -year deal, giving him a chance to stretch out again as a starter, and he rewarded them with a much higher quality number, like the number of innings they got from it that quality.

[386] No one could have expected that.

[387] So yeah, like you're going to bake in some regression.

[388] I don't know if a four ERA is what I expect either.

[389] I feel like the projections maybe are aggressively overcorrecting based on who Ronald Lopez was earlier in his career.

[390] And I think he might just be a slightly different pitcher now with a little bit more at his disposal.

[391] And being in a better organization goes a long way.

[392] It's going to be a real feel for people, I think.

[393] in their drafts to see if he's dropping too far or just enough.

[394] Because it's going to be drafts where people are like, oh, he was amazing.

[395] He's going to be amazing again, and they're going to take him too high, I think.

[396] And then there's going to be drafts where people are like, oh, no, he's a four ERA guy, and he could break after all those innings.

[397] And I'm not taking him at all, and he drops too far.

[398] So I don't know where your Goldilocks moment for Reynaldo Lopez is.

[399] I kind of put him in, I think, the back end of the top.

[400] Top 40, you know, I think he's definitely a pitcher that you would pitch most of the time when he's in.

[401] He's not a guy where you're like, ooh, is he home or away or who's he facing?

[402] You just sort of pitch him.

[403] So that feels like you got to put him in the top 40.

[404] Grant Holmes, I love.

[405] And in fact, you know, there's some interesting things happening right now in spring training even where Ian Anderson came out and pitched.

[406] Ian Anderson and Grant Holmes both don't have options.

[407] Now, that may not matter at the beginning of the season to start because Spencer Strider, they're walking him slowly back.

[408] And I think...

[409] He'll basically be back like three weeks into the season or something.

[410] But for the first three weeks of the season, I guess you're pitching Holmes and Anderson.

[411] If they both don't have options, you want to see some more.

[412] However, Ian Anderson sat 92.

[413] And he was already an iffy guy talent -wise at 94.

[414] But if he's going to sit 92 through the spring, I don't know if DFA is really the answer or what it's going to be.

[415] I think at this point...

[416] It could be part of the range of possible outcomes for him, and I just see Grant Holmes as a better pitcher right now.

[417] So if it does come down to a decision between Holmes and Anderson, I think they'll choose Holmes.

[418] As far as the bullpen goes, a few losses there.

[419] I mentioned this kind of in passing before.

[420] Minter, Luke Jackson, Matzik Chavez, John Brebbia all gone.

[421] I know they got varying levels of work from those guys last year, but...

[422] Is this bullpen, kind of like the Phillies bullpen, is it one of those bullpens that's actually a little bit more gettable than we're accustomed to, especially with Joe Jimenez down for a bit, at least a little bit to begin the season, maybe for a long bit.

[423] His timeline is still very unclear.

[424] I did this thing where I just looked at Oopsie and I projected, I used the Oopsie projections to gather.

[425] These are the top six relievers in each bullpen.

[426] And the Mets came out with the best bullpen in baseball.

[427] somewhat park factory, you know, like the ERA is going to have some park factor to it, but that's a pretty nice strikeout right there.

[428] 27 .7 % for the Mets and the Phillies came out with a top seven one, you know, seventh.

[429] And that's, that's actually going against the park factors a little bit.

[430] Cause that's a little bit tougher of a park.

[431] And the Braves had the 10th best projected ERA, and their 27 .3 % strikeout rate is pretty good, but their 9 .7 % walk rate is worse than the Phillies.

[432] And so I think this does a decent job of describing like it's still a decent pen.

[433] And if you look at the players in it, you say, okay, these guys are okay.

[434] But there's also, if you stacked them up one by one against the best bullpens in the league, you'd say, okay, well, they...

[435] They don't win at closer, and they don't win at setup guy, and they don't win at top lefty.

[436] They lose each of those one -on -one matchups.

[437] I don't necessarily have a guy circled that can even jump in.

[438] The Mets have this guy, Daniel Nunez, who just lights out and killer stuff.

[439] Poorly for Edwin Diaz could step in, I think, almost, and be a lights -out closer.

[440] I don't have that guy circled for the Braves where I'm like, oh, yeah, here's a pick to click.

[441] Here's the name that you've got to remember, and I don't know who that is.

[442] Maybe it's one of the young starters that gets bumped into that role.

[443] Maybe it's someone who's out of options.

[444] Yeah, there's a few ways it could happen, but I'm not surprised to see the similarities to the Phillies' bullpen.

[445] Good, but not great.

[446] Still ways to make it better over the course of the season.

[447] I think we trust Alex Anthopoulos and company to do that when the time comes to do it.

[448] One name would be Daysville Hernandez, who throws 97 .5, but he's kind of sinker first, and I don't think he's out there with Nunez.

[449] These top teams in this division are making this a long preview so far.

[450] We'll try to speed it up, but the Dakota win projection for the Braves, 92 .8, too hot, too cold, or just right.

[451] I'm going to go with just right because that offense is, I think, going to be great.

[452] Yeah, I think just right is like plus or minus a win, win and a half, right?

[453] I think this is a team that's every bit as good as we're accustomed to.

[454] I'm with you on that being the right sort of number on this Braves team.

[455] Let's shift the focus over to the Mets.

[456] Juan Soto has entered the chat, and they did a good job of retaining the guys that helped get them to the NLCS last year.

[457] So you look at...

[458] This team with Pete Alonso back, Juan Soto added to the fold.

[459] They bring in Jose Siri, just for kind of like a Harrison Bader replacement, I guess you could say.

[460] And Jesse Winker's still there, which shockingly didn't keep Pete Alonso from coming back.

[461] Who could have imagined that, that Jesse Winker returning didn't prevent Pete Alonso from coming back?

[462] They lost Bader, they lost DJ Stewart from the position player group, but it's basically the same group with Juan Soto slapped on top.

[463] That's a pretty good offseason.

[464] The crowning achievement, they just claimed Alexander Canario off of waivers.

[465] Oh, they're going to get him.

[466] All right, nice.

[467] Big friend of the podcast, Alexander Canario, high up in the word cloud.

[468] The reason I joke about that is just because he is right -handed, I believe, and Siri needs a partner.

[469] So I guess it could be Canario versus Trammell.

[470] for that one roster spot, which is the right -handed caddy to Jose Siri.

[471] That's pretty, or not Tramiel, Tyler, Tyrone Taylor.

[472] It's probably still Tyrone Taylor, but I don't know what they do with Canario with no options if you're building a bench on this group because it starts to get really crowded.

[473] Starling Marte is on this team, and I don't know what he's doing.

[474] I guess he's platooning at DH with Jesse Winker.

[475] For now, yeah.

[476] I mean, because they're Soto, Lindor, Alonso, Vientos, Nimmo.

[477] Those are your everyday guys.

[478] Francisco Alvarez, basically an everyday guy behind the plate.

[479] So there's your five plus your catcher.

[480] And then everybody else kind of mixing around that.

[481] Torrance, Luis Angel, Acuna, Tyrone Taylor, and then Marte, I guess.

[482] So there's no room for Canario.

[483] I think he's going to get DFA'd again unless somebody's hurt.

[484] Or they're setting up for a Starling Marte trade because this would be a better defensive team with a little bit more versatility if they had Canario and Taylor as those guys as opposed to having Marte as one of them because you don't really want to play Marte in the field.

[485] Yeah, it's interesting because by projections, I mean, Canario's got a 76 WRC plus projected, so I think that's a spring depth maneuver, and then you just see if you can pass them through waivers during the crunch or something, and if you miss out, you miss out, but at least you had a shot to get a look at them in camp.

[486] That's maybe the thinking for a move like that.

[487] There's a bit of a roster battle here, maybe.

[488] Yeah, what do you think the battle is?

[489] Second base?

[490] I think it's the position that I look at, and I'm like, the...

[491] least confident in a projection for it because Jeff McNeil's down to an 88 WRC plus projection.

[492] That's more of a bench guy than someone you're going to try and play nearly every day.

[493] Ronnie Mauricio has had a really difficult time coming back from his knee injury.

[494] He'd be pretty interesting if he was healthy, but if he's not healthy, is that Luis Angel Acuna spot?

[495] Like you're saying, the projections are starting to converge a little bit.

[496] I mean, For the bad X, it's 77 for Acuna versus 88 for McNeil.

[497] So I have had some shares of McNeil in draft and holds where I'm like, hey, third, second baseman, you know, guy that...

[498] could just start and have that position.

[499] Because there is a world where Acuna doesn't develop into that much power, and he is just basically a utility guy.

[500] I mean, that's what the projections suggest.

[501] As a guy who can play short, he can play second, he's right -handed, he's got some speed, can be a pinch runner.

[502] That's where Acuna is right now.

[503] But he obviously has more upside because of his age, because he could fill out.

[504] could hit for more power, to be better than McNeil.

[505] So do they want to try that, or do they just sneak Acuna on the roster, McNeil is the starter, and if Acuna starts out playing McNeil, he takes his job over the course of the season.

[506] That's what I think is the most likely outcome.

[507] I'm not saying that he takes it, but it's sort of that they play it that way.

[508] I think in hindsight, when I look at their offseason, and I'm not just saying it because he hates Milwaukee, I really don't know why they brought Jesse Winker back.

[509] That just makes their roster...

[510] a little more crowded.

[511] Depth is good, right?

[512] I mean, league average projection, but not a lot of defensive value on a team that already had a couple of guys that were starting to give them a bit of a log jam.

[513] So the necessity of that move is one that I'm a little bit questionable of.

[514] Slightly righty heavy?

[515] Yeah.

[516] I guess Lindor's switch.

[517] If McNeil's not in the lineup, yeah, you're right.

[518] Lindor's switch hits.

[519] You have at least three out of your top five.

[520] Alonzo and Vientos are righties though, right?

[521] The Nemo's a lefty.

[522] Yeah.

[523] They're okay.

[524] They're balanced enough.

[525] Yeah.

[526] I don't know.

[527] It's one of those things where they have enough money where I think it was almost negotiating with Soto or with Alonzo.

[528] And they're like, oh, we don't need you.

[529] Remember, it came out.

[530] There was a writer that was like.

[531] It was so stupid.

[532] It was just the silliest report.

[533] I hated it.

[534] It bothered me so much because it just couldn't possibly be true.

[535] And then it wasn't.

[536] And then it wasn't.

[537] So I'm glad my Spidey sense was accurate.

[538] in this instance.

[539] The Mets have been in the news this spring because of injuries already into the rotation, though.

[540] Sean Minaya with the oblique, Frankie Montas at the lat.

[541] Innings pitch projection right there, dude.

[542] Yeah, look at how this comes out.

[543] I mean, Minaya at 158 might be tough now because of the oblique.

[544] Even Kodai Singa with all the time he missed last year.

[545] Clay Holmes at 165, dude?

[546] Yeah, I think this is the problem I think I have with the Mets is...

[547] worrying that while they have volume in terms of the number of options and they have a pitcher -friendly park and they become an organization that manages pitching really well, there might be some significant holes over the course of the year if this group continues to tack on injuries.

[548] If Minaya comes back and is fine, if Montas comes back in May, early June, and he's fine, okay.

[549] But I just don't know.

[550] I mean, Christian Scott's down following Tommy John surgery.

[551] So you've got that.

[552] Don't really have internal guys.

[553] I guess Sprout is figuring in at some point maybe.

[554] Yeah, Sprout's going to get into the mix.

[555] I think the thing I have to remember when I look at this team is nothing's really off limits.

[556] When it comes to in -season acquisitions and just taking on money, like they made those creative trades to get rid of Scherzer and Verlander a couple seasons ago, they could make creative moves to just tack on more if they need it.

[557] When teams are looking to shed payroll.

[558] So I think that's sort of in their, in their back pocket too, as far as how they operate.

[559] But yeah, the innings projections on this group seem a little wobbly.

[560] And we talked about this yesterday, just looking at the news side of it was Tyler McGill, probably a lot more important to the Mets today than people would have expected even a month ago.

[561] Yeah, I'm taking 30 -plus innings off that Clay Holmes rejection, coming off of 70 innings.

[562] I just can't imagine he's going to 165.

[563] Even as good as Reynaldo Lopez was last year, he didn't get to 165.

[564] Kodai Senga, 160 from zero, like five.

[565] He had five innings last year.

[566] Kodai Senga's got him 160.

[567] I don't know about that.

[568] Shamanaya Hurt of 158.

[569] So I'm just taking innings off of each of these projections.

[570] And so right now I'm at, I need 50 innings from somebody named David Peterson, Tyler McGill, and Griffin Canning that don't have right now, that they haven't put on them right now, or Blackburn.

[571] And I'm going to put the bulk of those on Tyler McGill because I think Tyler McGill is a better pitcher than Griffin Canning.

[572] And so I'm going to give...

[573] 40 -plus innings to Tyler McGill that are not on there right now.

[574] That's 112.

[575] He's going to be, I think, above Paul Blackburn, maybe 120 innings.

[576] So I think he's going to have 120 innings of a sub -4 ERA, and he's automatically more interesting now.

[577] And the way that it works also is he does have an option, and Canning doesn't, so McGill could get optioned down.

[578] But I just think it's one of those things where, like, okay, right now, Mania and Montas are hurt.

[579] By the time that everyone's like, okay, what happens when they come back?

[580] Someone else gets hurt.

[581] I just think that's how it's going to work.

[582] Other teams are built this way too.

[583] We talk about the Dodgers all the time, just layering a bunch of guys with high injury risk.

[584] It can work.

[585] It's going to be fine if it doesn't overlap all at once.

[586] The disaster scenario is like four of your starters that you really are relying on are...

[587] broken for a significant period of time simultaneously.

[588] It's bad for any team, but even one that tries to build up as much depth as the Mets have tried to build up.

[589] I mean, if you're going Peterson, Blackburn, if you're going all four of your depth guys in there at the same time, you're in some trouble.

[590] But they can out -hit it.

[591] They can out -hit it with the lineup they've built.

[592] I mean, that's the thing.

[593] They're putting plenty of runs on the board last year to add Soto to that group.

[594] I like Megill, and if they can do something with Griffin Canning, then all of a sudden, and Peterson's not bad.

[595] There's a lot of opportunity for them to coach up those guys, and they seem to believe in that.

[596] And then I really like Clay Holmes as a starter.

[597] This is his pitch.

[598] I'm going to rewrite about this for The Athletic tomorrow about new pitches that I really care about and I think could be a big deal.

[599] This is Clay Holmes' pitch chart from his last spring training start, and there are three new pitches on there.

[600] If you see the orange, that's a sinker, and the two yellow dots, those are what he had last year, the gyro slider and the sweeper.

[601] He already had those.

[602] The three new ones are that red forcing fastball up there, the cutter over there.

[603] That's a total bridge pitch there and does what importantly looks very different from his gyro slider.

[604] I mean, that's a difference of about 14 inches there of movement between the cutter and the gyro slider.

[605] So that's a significantly different pitch.

[606] And then the kick change that he's throwing is the one in green.

[607] I think there's enough here.

[608] You know, the arm slot's very different, but it reminds me a little bit of like King and Clark Schmidt, where it's like a sinker slider guy who has to use these other pitches just to like, just to spread the region out a little bit more, you know, just between that change and that four seam, just spread it.

[609] So it's not just one plane.

[610] Sinker slider is like kind of one plane, east -west.

[611] And throwing the foreseam and the change in there and even the cutter makes a wider shape if you're looking at this on YouTube.

[612] And I'll share it on Discord later.

[613] But I think this is the kind of thing that could make Clay Holmes maybe be per inning an ace, a lot like Reynaldo Lopez.

[614] But it makes it a little bit tough when your per inning ace used to be a reliever and might top out at 140 innings before he starts getting really tired.

[615] The fatigue factor matters to me a little bit, but I will say Michael King started to stretch back out with the Yankees before the Padres acquired him.

[616] Michael King got to 173 and two -thirds last year, so I think that's in the range of possibilities.

[617] 165 is an aggressive number to put down, but you're just thinking about it in terms of probabilistic outcomes, right?

[618] I think you lower it slightly, 140, 145, but you're not worried about it being a hard shutdown.

[619] You're more worried about...

[620] injury popping up just because of the extra workload or effectiveness tailing off the end of the season because of that pitch mix.

[621] Holmes and Hicks last year, Jordan Hicks, you know.

[622] Yeah, I think Clay Holmes' approach and mix are just a little bit better looking today than Jordan Hicks' were in the spring, but I think Hicks is a good cautionary tale of, hey, it looked pretty good for a while, and then it's just a question of where is that cliff.

[623] Yeah, because Holmes' zelo was good in his first start, but it also wasn't like five innings, right?

[624] And it also wasn't his 134th, 135th, 136th, 137th innings, you know?

[625] Yeah, I would also say Ronaldo Lopez, if not for the IL stint in the second half, probably would have got to 160 or 165 if he was on that sort of pace.

[626] You can't just take the IL stint away.

[627] I mean, it could be related to being stretched out.

[628] Right.

[629] I'm just telling you, like, it's...

[630] What you would expect for a reliever who's been in short relief for a couple of seasons as a high -end workload is probably what Michael King did, and he had the benefit of starting to stretch out.

[631] And if you factor in an IL stint, then it probably looks a little bit like what Lopez did.

[632] So that's probably your workload number.

[633] The quality of this inning should be really high.

[634] I'm glad you mentioned the quality of the bullpen before.

[635] It's just a really solid group, top to bottom.

[636] Walks were the problem last year.

[637] They're still projected to be a problem this year.

[638] But it's the Edwin Diaz show in the ninth inning, so we don't spend a lot of time on the individuals here because they just don't intrigue us that much from a fantasy perspective unless something happens injury -wise to Diaz again.

[639] Budo is another SPRP.

[640] with holds.

[641] Ah, yes.

[642] More sparky goodness.

[643] More sparky goodness.

[644] The projection from Pakoda as it stands today, 91 .7 is the total for these Mets.

[645] Too hot, too cold, or just right?

[646] Too cold.

[647] I was too cold on this one, too.

[648] A lot of agreement overall, but I think I'm a little more aggressive on Clay Holmes' innings than you are.

[649] I think I find the pitching.

[650] Even with what I was saying, I'm okay with giving Tyler McGill 40 more innings, you know?

[651] I don't know that I have seen exactly the future for Griffin Canning where I'm like, oh, if only Griffin Canning had this.

[652] But I do expect that he'll come into camp with three fastballs.

[653] And since he already had a good slider and change, maybe three mediocre fastballs is all Griffin Canning needed just to be like, you don't know which one's coming.

[654] It's not going to be a great one, but you don't know which of the three fastballs is coming.

[655] Next offseason, I'm going to add.

[656] My third fastball.

[657] That's going to be my goal for 2026.

[658] Should have done it this winter.

[659] Didn't get around to it.

[660] It's a work in progress.

[661] But I'm with you on that being a too cold projection for the Mets.

[662] Let's move down in the NL East to the Nationals.

[663] I think this is a team that's making good progress in their rebuild.

[664] I don't think they've made quite enough yet to be more than a team that hangs around and makes the run of the wild card.

[665] That's the best case scenario.

[666] And I think even that might be a little bit of a stretch.

[667] Probably because of questions about the pitching.

[668] We've got the position player core group up right now where you see projections for C .J. Abrams, Nathaniel Lowe, James Wood, Dylan Cruz, Luis Garcia Jr., who was on your board a little bit earlier.

[669] As the top five by projections, you're going to see a lot of Kiebert Ruiz behind the plate.

[670] Do you agree with that as the core five and starting catcher group for this Nats team?

[671] I know that Luis Garcia with a 101 WRC plus projection is a risk for platoon splits, given his platoon splits, given how he was used down the stretch last year, given the fact that he's not so outstanding overall that you could just leave him in and he'd be like league average against same -handed and way better against the other hand.

[672] I know all those things are true, but I just think that...

[673] This team is going to be playing so many games at so many different positions, trying to figure out who's playing third base, trying to just coax anything out of first base or DH, I guess, and thinking about center field where it's like a very defense first profile.

[674] that I think maybe Luis Garcia sneaks in there and still gets over 600 plate appearances.

[675] It's interesting that nobody is protected for over 600 plate appearances here.

[676] I would give 600 plate appearances to Abrams, Wood, Cruz, and Garcia because I think those are the future for them, and they're going to play those guys, and they're going to play the Jose Tania.

[677] I don't even know who I like otherwise.

[678] Alex Call types.

[679] They're going to play those guys around that core.

[680] to make it work.

[681] I don't know exactly how Nate Lowe fits in.

[682] It's a little bit, you know, maybe they just figure he'll still be around when maybe they start getting good or they just wanted to try and get a little bit better.

[683] But I guess he'll play every day too.

[684] Who would you give 600 plate appearances to?

[685] Since none of them have it, who would you give it to?

[686] I feel like somebody's going to get it.

[687] Abrams is five away.

[688] I think they've moved past the late season casino incident.

[689] Talked about that a few weeks ago.

[690] He's probably going to get there unless he's...

[691] Well, if he's every day, then he really should have a 650.

[692] It seems a little light.

[693] They're going to lead him off.

[694] He should get to 650.

[695] Low, the Rangers let him get there.

[696] basically three times, because he got to 642, 645, and 724, and then dipped to 565 last year.

[697] And he has almost zero platoon splits, because I think of his let it travel approach.

[698] A little bit more of, hey, maybe there's something to this.

[699] The Colt Keith strategy.

[700] Right, avoiding losing time to lefties, because you let it travel.

[701] And then James Wood, I'm giving over 600 to James Wood, Cruz, and okay, I see how Garcia starts to be, you know, a little bit, but he's definitely, if there's a rule of five, he's in it.

[702] He's in it.

[703] He'd be in it even if I give him the smallest plate appearance total of the first five guys we're talking about.

[704] I think the number I'm looking at that doesn't make any sense to me as far as ceiling is Josh Bell.

[705] Does Josh Bell get 555 plate appearances for the Nationals?

[706] Only in a scenario in which Nathaniel Lowe misses a lot of time with an injury.

[707] I think it's more likely that someone like Tana ends up coming in.

[708] sixth in plate appearances, or more likely it's just Ruiz and then Taina's right behind him.

[709] But I look at Taina as a guy that could end up playing a bit more than these projections suggest.

[710] Yeah, it's a short -term deal for Bell.

[711] He's not in their future plans.

[712] DH projected to be a 99 WRC+.

[713] If he falls off of that at all and he's just like an 85, then yeah, his position will be open for business.

[714] The bigger questions with the Nationals all along have been, where will the pitching come from?

[715] And are they going to develop it effectively alongside of whatever they eventually do in free agency?

[716] Like knowing Mike Rizzo's tendencies, they've been willing to spend a lot of money on pitching in the past.

[717] There's not always pitching to spend the money on.

[718] And then the other part of it is, well, you also got to develop pitching when you spend money too, because you're going to need back -end starters.

[719] You're going to need to develop some relievers that are good.

[720] You can't just buy everything you need in free agency.

[721] It's just not going to work that way.

[722] When you look at the projections, you see Mackenzie Gore with the biggest innings projection at 166.

[723] I believe this is from Oopsie.

[724] And it's happened his entire life, at least his entire professional life, from the night he was drafted in the first round by the Padres.

[725] During the broadcast, they slapped a Clayton Kershaw comp on Mackenzie Gore.

[726] And the poor guy just, no one's Kershaw.

[727] It's like the best terrible comp you can give somebody in the sense that...

[728] Everyone's going to be disappointed that you're not Kershaw, even though it's exciting that they think you could be Kershaw.

[729] He can't win.

[730] He's not going to be Kershaw.

[731] But there's a lot of good reasons for it.

[732] I mean, look at this.

[733] This is just off of Savant with the arm angle.

[734] You know, that's Gore on the left with a 47 -degree arm angle.

[735] Kershaw on the right with 57.

[736] So that's a little bit higher of an arm angle.

[737] But if you look at their fastball, slider, and curveball movement patterns, you say, oh, wow, that looks pretty similar to me. And, you know, I think that...

[738] If Gore could maybe cut the foreseam a little bit and have it look more like Kershaw, probably be good for him.

[739] But I think the real difference between these two is command.

[740] And Gore offsets that with a 96 -mile -an -hour foreseam, whereas they've got Kershaw down for the 89 .9.

[741] But Kershaw's command is amazing.

[742] Yeah, the command is a huge, huge, huge part of it.

[743] It's not unfair to wonder, though.

[744] Have we actually seen the best big league season for Mackenzie Gore yet?

[745] Probably not.

[746] I think it's still this year or in a future year.

[747] I don't think it's already on the back of the baseball card.

[748] I do think you average 96 from the left side.

[749] It's probably tempting to throw the fastball 55 % of the time, but maybe throwing a little less is part of the secret for how they're going to do it.

[750] A better slider would be just so huge.

[751] I think you can see just the difference in quality, though, between the first three teams we've talked about and now the Nats when you look at the ERA projections where everybody in the rotation is projected to be above four.

[752] Even Gore at 409, right?

[753] That's still not a bad projection.

[754] Other than Gore, you know, and maybe DJ Hurts, who has a really good changeup, all these guys are like six starters for a contender.

[755] And I don't even think, you know, I'm going to bet against Michael Soroka making the transition.

[756] And I'm going to soften that blow a little bit by saying that he could be their closer because their bullpen is awful.

[757] You saw that earlier.

[758] It was 29th.

[759] It has the 29th best projection by Oopsie.

[760] And they could use help in the bullpen as much as they could use help in the starting rotation.

[761] In fact, with Trevor Williams as their sixth and Shino Soke...

[762] Ogasara?

[763] Shunosuke is a soft tosser that I don't think is going to make it, but I would try him and Trevor Williams over Soroka, I think.

[764] Just given Soroka's injury history, even his arsenal as it stands, it doesn't speak to me and say, oh yeah, this is a starter's arsenal in relief.

[765] It's a fastball slider at this point, and it's a weird slider that if it loses VLO may not actually be effective.

[766] So I'm putting Soroka in the bullpen and trying those other arms out and leaving space for Cade Cavalli to be maybe the guy that can join Gore at the top of the rotation.

[767] Yeah, I think that's among the things that has to happen for this Nats team to exceed expectations overall in 2025.

[768] You might recall last year when Michael Soroka moved to the bullpen for the White Sox, it was all...

[769] difference.

[770] Strikeout rate went through the roof.

[771] Opposing hitters hit 189 with a 303 OBP and a 291 slug against him.

[772] So yeah, that's a really, really sharp difference from what he was doing as a starter.

[773] I get the sense that that's the better fit for him at this stage of his career, but that second chapter would probably be a lot more interesting with that move for Soroka at this point.

[774] Let's take a look at the Pocota total here.

[775] 66 .9.

[776] Too hot, too cold, or just right for these Nationals?

[777] Too cold, but just barely.

[778] I think they're just, they're going to do, they're in that like slowly marching towards contention part where I think maybe the projections are just going to be like a year behind on it and they're just, they're going to get to like 74 or something.

[779] You know, like we've seen the Pirates kind of add like a few wins every year.

[780] Like it's going to be like that.

[781] They're going to get to like 72.

[782] They're trying.

[783] They're clearly trying.

[784] And I do think the young talent can help succeed.

[785] And, like, you know, getting Sirocco.

[786] Like, they're not even only trying.

[787] They're trying in places where they're like, oh, we don't have this.

[788] Let's try and get this.

[789] Like, you know what I mean?

[790] And not just like, oh, we're just gathering whatever flotsam and jetsons falls to us.

[791] At this point, they're, like, trying to build a team that actually looks right on paper.

[792] The Marlins under your hand.

[793] are just collecting flotsam and jetsam.

[794] I mean, they have, I don't know how many first base, corner outfield, quad A, projectable 27 -year -olds, but they may have all of them that are not in the big leagues.

[795] The projections from the Bat -X show one Marlins hitter to be above average by WRC Plus, Taysu Sanchez.

[796] My man. Yeah, I wish you were in one of my keeper leagues where I have Jesus Sanchez because I would be trading for some pitching is what I would do right away.

[797] You're going to telegraph your moves to the entire league whenever you can.

[798] Smart.

[799] Okay, so let's identify their five real quick.

[800] I mean, Xavier Edwards is going to play a lot, in part because they don't really have a lot of options at shortstop.

[801] They may violate the rule of five rule by the fact that the five doesn't make it to the end of the season, and so you still don't get it.

[802] That's the deep rebuild.

[803] But if you're going to say, which five guys are they at least going to let run out there every day for the first couple months of the season?

[804] Edwards, Connor Norby, Jesus Sanchez.

[805] And that's the end.

[806] It's three.

[807] I know.

[808] I don't care.

[809] Yeah, Nick Fortes is probably even sharing with Liam Hicks as a Rule 5 pick.

[810] Augustin Ramirez is kind of into the mix.

[811] Maybe Stowers sneaks into that.

[812] Maybe Stowers and Lopez.

[813] I don't trust Jonah Bright at all, and they have so many other first base types.

[814] I'm going to go with Otto Lopez and Kyle Stowers to finish the five.

[815] I'd put...

[816] Stowers in as a kind of a, hey, if you're looking for the next J .J. Bladet, if that moves the needle for you, that's maybe what I think Kyle Stowers could do.

[817] But it took J .J. Bladet a couple years to get there, and there's a lot of swing and miss for Stowers to whittle away from that profile.

[818] Yeah, so I think that's the red flag there.

[819] And then Davis and De Los Santos, man, why not?

[820] Why not just play him and see what happens?

[821] There's a range of outcomes.

[822] Let's see.

[823] Who could Davis and De Los Santos be?

[824] How about How about Chris Carter?

[825] Do you think he could be a Chris Carter?

[826] Oh, yeah.

[827] Chris Carter.

[828] The Chris Carter that ended up playing in Japan eventually, I believe, right?

[829] He went from Oakland to Houston, had a year in Milwaukee.

[830] He popped 41 homers that year.

[831] Quickly became a Yankee and then was gone.

[832] Yeah, like could he strike out less than Chris Carter?

[833] Maybe.

[834] Like there's also like a range of possible outcomes is like almost Chris Davis where He slugs so much that they walk him because they're afraid of him kind of deal.

[835] He does not have a good...

[836] Okay, Orioles Chris Davis, okay.

[837] Yeah, he does not have a good...

[838] No, because Crush Davis actually had a pretty good sense of the zone.

[839] Chris Davis had no sense of the zone, and then he just frightened everybody.

[840] And then he stopped frightening them, and then the blocks went away.

[841] That's something that I can think...

[842] I think at some point...

[843] Like, De La Santos has frightening power.

[844] We saw him hit a ball in Arizona that was...

[845] I think out of the park, or at least it was past the berm.

[846] It was like it went past the berm and it like hit the ceiling on the thing behind the berm.

[847] Anyway, he has plus plus raw power.

[848] I do think that I would give him a try over Jonah Bride, you know, because I know that they coached Bride up into, you know, decent work last year, surprisingly decent work, a 123 WRC plus.

[849] But if you look at.

[850] His maxi B, his barrel rates, his ground ball, fly ball, his pull rates, nothing really changed that suggested to me like, oh, he had more power for Miami than he did for Oakland.

[851] You know what I mean?

[852] Maybe they did teach him something, but I think that last year was a mirage.

[853] And he's 29, so I don't even know what you're looking for from a 29 -year -old right -handed first baseman who does not have good power.

[854] I think my most rostered Marlins is going to be Connor Norby.

[855] I do think there's one thing with Davis and De Los Santos that caught my eyes.

[856] Last year, after the Marlins got him in that trade, he went to the AAA affiliate in Jacksonville.

[857] So he got out of Reno, got out of the PCL.

[858] Still showed the power, 12 homers in 50 games, but he dropped down to a 240, 284, 459 line getting out of the PCL.

[859] And both Amarillo, AA.

[860] and Reno at AAA in the Diamondbacks organization.

[861] We talked about this.

[862] They're high -altitude, hitter -friendly, very hitter -friendly environments.

[863] They get difficult to develop pitching.

[864] They boost up offense.

[865] So I do think there could be some ups and downs, literally, like on the roster, off the roster for De Los Santos.

[866] But they should hit a point at some point this year where they say, let's just see what happens with regular run and try to figure out if the power is just so good that it can be enough to get past the swing and miss. I think that's at least a possible outcome.

[867] They've definitely taken on a lot of guys who swung and missed a little bit less in the lower minors, add in swing and miss, have a swing and miss risk in David Dos Santos, Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, even Matt Mervis.

[868] All these guys are guys that project to be in between AAA and the big leagues.

[869] Quad A, like I was saying.

[870] All of them.

[871] None of them have really good defensive value.

[872] And I think they're hoping that just one out of the five they've gathered cuts the strikeout rate to 26 % and can be in the corner outfield for them later, or DH even.

[873] Yeah, I think that's the outcome they are hoping for.

[874] I would also circle Augustin Ramirez as someone that could play a little bit of catcher, could play first base, could be in the DH mix.

[875] I just like what he brings to the table.

[876] A little more polished numbers from the AAA level in terms of balance.

[877] Got on base at a .358 clip, so I think we'll see a good bit of Ramirez this year, too, as the Marlins really kind of have open auditions for a few spots and try to figure out who belongs in that core for the future.

[878] On the bottom of the screen on YouTube, the simple question is, are they better than the White Sox?

[879] And I think when you look at the pitching, that's when you start to convince yourself that they might be.

[880] Sandy Alcantara, I mentioned him on the...

[881] News update yesterday, touching 99 miles per hour.

[882] Ryan Weathers looked a lot better last year than he did in previous stints in the big leagues.

[883] They're going to throw Cal Quantrill out there to help chew up some innings that make sense, just given their needs, given it's a pitcher -friendly ballpark.

[884] He might actually be more streamable now in some deep leagues than he was in a couple of his previous stops, most recently Colorado, where he was just unusable.

[885] They got Max Meyer still kicking around there.

[886] They got an Eno favorite.

[887] I like Meyer a little bit, and then Yuri Perez is coming back at some point.

[888] Yeah, Perez will be back probably, June, July, something like that, more of like a midseason sort of return.

[889] So they've got opportunities in the short term.

[890] They've got a good one, too, with Sandy and Uri eventually, unless Sandy gets traded midseason.

[891] So you can kind of tell yourself a story with starting rotation that they might not be that bad in that regard.

[892] Their bullpen is going to be a work in progress, too.

[893] We know Peter Bendix, who's now charged in the front office there, coming from the Rays.

[894] He's probably going to put his system in place, get the organization running as much like Tampa Bay as he possibly can.

[895] So eventually, they're going to have some organizational strengths that might be different than things they've had in the past.

[896] I don't know if we just immediately assume that they're going to have that right away, but Jesus Tinoco kind of previously popped for you.

[897] I think he said his velos down a bit this spring, so maybe he's less interesting.

[898] Maybe it's the first outing.

[899] Maybe it was the radar gun readings because I noticed that a lot of the other pitchers in his game were down.

[900] So I'm going to tread water on thinking that Tinoco is an interesting play in the deepest of leagues because I think Calvin Fauche does have a really good breaking ball but does not have necessarily a closer's fastball.

[901] He was down in that game too.

[902] So that's why I was wondering maybe it was the gun in that game.

[903] Tanoko, Fauche, and Bender.

[904] I think Bender has a chance to get some saves.

[905] So I think those are your three that are in contention for the role.

[906] I'm not going to spend a lot for any of them in any league, in any situation, but I will have shares of all three depending on how far they fall.

[907] Yeah.

[908] Some possible targets there, but again, this team's not projected to win more than about 60 to 62 games, so save chances may be difficult to come by, and it may end up being more of a committee when it's all said and done anyway.

[909] Pakoda has a 62 .1 projection for the win total on the Marlins, means they're a 100 -loss team this year if that comes true.

[910] So are you on this as too hot, too cold, or just right for these Marlins?

[911] I might go too hot because...

[912] Like, I don't know.

[913] I feel like there's such in the deepest part of this rebuild where even if they start doing anything interesting, they'll trade a pitcher.

[914] Right.

[915] It just feels like it's an uphill battle all year where it's move as many pieces as you can to get better for the future.

[916] This could be their 2024 White Sox season.

[917] And then it's.

[918] Only up from there as they sort of gather more and more actual big league talent to put around some of the pitchers that they're able to retain through all of this.

[919] So I'm very worried about the Marlins from what they're going to look like in 2025 perspective.

[920] And I think they will be pretty aggressive on the trade front as they continue to try to put their own stamp on that organization with that new front office in Miami.

[921] Let's get to a few fantasy favorites here.

[922] A sleeper hitter from the NL East who caught your eyes.

[923] We were getting ready for this episode.

[924] I'm going to go with Norby.

[925] I don't know if I stole yours.

[926] No, I mean, I like Norby too.

[927] I just think that they are going to stick him in all year and give him the chance to go through his lumps.

[928] And he may not have a good batting average.

[929] And he may hit more of his homers on the road than he does at home.

[930] But he has non -zero speed too.

[931] The projections are already interesting at sort of a consensus 240 -17 -10.

[932] That's already something I think most leagues would care about.

[933] And then there's just a chance where you give him the full -time playing time, and he's 24 years old, and there's nothing.

[934] He gets past maybe a little early lump, and he goes kind of crazy for the second half or something.

[935] He's got talent.

[936] He's the best player they've traded for.

[937] I've just said that without researching it, but that feels right.

[938] Best as far as proximity to big leagues and being able to make an impact.

[939] They might have some longer -term guys that end up being better, but yeah, as far as scanning through the upper -level guys they've traded for.

[940] I think that's a fair assessment.

[941] Oh, they got Starlin Kaba from...

[942] Did they get him?

[943] But he's far away from the big leagues.

[944] So, yeah, I'm with you there.

[945] You mentioned Nacho Alvarez Jr. a little bit earlier in the show.

[946] I look at Orlando Garcia as the weak spot on that Atlanta depth chart.

[947] I think Alvarez is the shortstop of the future, but probably also the shortstop of the near.

[948] future.

[949] There's power, there's a little bit of speed, good on -base skills.

[950] Probably a guy that's a little underrated because he looks like he's a better real -life player than a fantasy player, but he's been so young for the level everywhere he's played.

[951] I'm kind of curious to see where this goes.

[952] Maybe more of a monoleague and a lonely draft and hold sort of profile this year, but I don't think it's going to take that much for Nacho Alvarez to displace Orlando Garcia as the starting shortstop for that Braves team.

[953] How about a sleeper starting pitcher from this division?

[954] I'm going to give you two because the top end, I just don't know.

[955] Clay Holmes, I'm really excited about.

[956] He's going to pop on a lot of those.

[957] Yeah, does he count as a sleeper?

[958] It's too obvious.

[959] I'm going to go with Grant Holmes.

[960] I think he's going to make that rotation.

[961] I think he's pretty good.

[962] I think he's real.

[963] Two good breaking balls.

[964] I think what he did last year was real.

[965] I think that he's not being priced right now as being in a rotation.

[966] That's fair.

[967] I'm going to say Griffin Canning.

[968] It's probably not a surprise if you listened to the episode yesterday, but opportunities knocking.

[969] I like Tyler McGill, too, for all the reasons we talked about before.

[970] But I think you finally had the season where Griffin Canning stayed healthy, got to 171 innings last year.

[971] So he can do it from a workload perspective.

[972] I talked about two years ago, the career best K rate and a Sierra under four for the first time in his career.

[973] I'm going to trust the Mets to make a few tweaks, even if you're using him mostly for his home starts when he's in that rotation.

[974] That's going to play and makes him a sleeper, at least in some midsize and deeper leagues.

[975] You'll use Griffin Canning more this year than you have in years past.

[976] I know people that don't like him are going to say, it's because he's hurt all the time, TBR.

[977] That's why you can't use him.

[978] He got past that last year.

[979] Finally showed us he can put up a pretty full season workload -wise.

[980] I'll say Griffin Canning's my sleeper.

[981] From a stuff perspective, he hasn't thrown his sinker a lot, but the model has liked his sinker more.

[982] Now, this is a little bit tricky because the way we're doing stuff right now, the model likes his sinker at his current fastball mix more.

[983] right so that number can go down if he throws it more and people expect it more but he threw it one percent of the time so i'm willing to say he can throw that sinker more often based on these early model numbers and then also he just always flashed a good slide he flashed a good change up along with a good slider the curve has always been decent so that's three decent to good uh, secondary.

[984] So that's, they're just going to play with that.

[985] I think it's going to be a cutter and he's going to throw the sinker more this year.

[986] So I think, I think he literally will go to three fastballs and it may be just enough to get him to all those secondaries.

[987] We've seen other pitchers succeed like an Eric Fetty.

[988] Could he be an Eric Fetty type?

[989] You give him two fastballs.

[990] He's got good breaking balls.

[991] He got decent command.

[992] Like he can be an Eric Fetty type this year.

[993] That'll play.

[994] That'll definitely play if that's the outcome.

[995] A reliever.

[996] I do like Soroka if he goes back to the bullpen, but I'm not going to make that assumption that it happens right away.

[997] And I do think when we talk to closers, I overlooked Jose Ferrer quite a bit.

[998] He throws really hard, averaging like 98 .8 on the fastball.

[999] Has a pretty wide arsenal for a reliever, too.

[1000] He really pops in the model.

[1001] He's only 24.

[1002] He's doing it from the left side, so maybe there's a matchup preference to use him at other spots in the game.

[1003] But he might have the best all -around stuff by a healthy margin of the guys currently on the depth chart in the Nationals bullpen.

[1004] Yeah, I missed this.

[1005] I guess one of the...

[1006] sort of problems is that it's a sinker first you know fastball profile that may lead to more like sort of soft contact and ground balls than strikeouts that's if you look at his strikeout rates they have not been standout but you know knowing that his manager is actually a little bit old school in some of the stuff I've heard from behind the scenes I could actually see him going to a kind of ground ball closer over somebody who has the big strikeout rates.

[1007] I just think there's a lot for them to tweak and work with too, in terms of just the raw arsenal.

[1008] And Sean Doolittle was a left -handed closer.

[1009] We know he's heavily involved in the Nats pitching program.

[1010] So I just, I really wish I hadn't missed Ferrer before.

[1011] So I'm glad we had a chance to bring him in.

[1012] Yeah, that's a good one.

[1013] I think we've talked about my, again, going with co -sleepers, just going with Orion Kirkering and Jose Alvarado.

[1014] I think Kirkering's ahead because he's a righty and Alvarado, you know, kind of does this up and down thing that he's done forever.

[1015] And I think it's just his command.

[1016] He loses his command at times and it comes back, it goes away.

[1017] But between the two of them, it's a bet against Jordan Romano, which I sort of explained earlier.

[1018] And then Orion Kirkering is just...

[1019] He's amazing.

[1020] He's so good.

[1021] That breaking ball is so nasty.

[1022] And I think the fastball is good enough that it's not just, oh, he's got a great slider.

[1023] I think he's a closer in waiting.

[1024] And I think if you look at what the Phillies did and didn't get out there and be aggressive with any of the top -end relievers out there, maybe it suggests that they think Orion Kirkering is the closer of the future too.

[1025] I thought even a year ago that was a possibility based on the way they were using him in the playoffs in 2023.

[1026] So a lot of confidence in what he brings to the table.

[1027] I do like that call as one that could bear some fruit this year if he rises to become the primary option for saves in that Phillies bullpen.

[1028] As I mentioned up top, join the Discord.

[1029] Feel free to jump in there with the link in the show description.

[1030] You can find us on Blue Sky.

[1031] Eno is at enoceras .bsky .social.

[1032] I am dbr .bsky .social.

[1033] Thanks to our producer, Brian Smith, for putting the...

[1034] This episode together.

[1035] That's going to do it for this episode of Rates and Barrels.

[1036] We're back with you on Wednesday.

[1037] Thanks for listening.