The Field: The Aftershocks of Iowa in New Hampshire

[0] Do you think that's the brakes?

[1] I think so.

[2] Should we not take this car?

[3] It seems slightly concerning.

[4] Oh.

[5] We've gone this far.

[6] Okay, well.

[7] Here's your acuether forecast and winter weather advisory in effect today.

[8] Clouds and some snows lead in.

[9] And we're just a few short days away from the primary in New Hampshire.

[10] We are flooded with presidential candidates.

[11] And if it wasn't already, the ground is cracking underneath Iowa in terms of being the first caucus in the nation.

[12] So many things to interpret.

[13] We don't even have a headline.

[14] We don't.

[15] And it's unclear actually when we will get these results.

[16] Everybody's working really hard, and voters show up and expect to have their vote counted.

[17] I mean, I don't care for the caucus situation one bit.

[18] I've always maintained that the New Hampshire primary is a far better way to determine and how people feel about the race, it's a direct boat.

[19] Nice neighborhood.

[20] Yeah, they look like doll houses.

[21] Well, they're very, like, colonial.

[22] So that's probably, oh, this is 11.

[23] Yes, he lives next door.

[24] He lives next door.

[25] From the New York Times, this is the field.

[26] I'm Lisa Laird in New Hampshire.

[27] Come on in another area.

[28] Thank you for coming us.

[29] So last week, after a chaotic few days in Iowa, I flew up to New Hampshire on Wednesday night, where I met up with daily producers, Claire Tennis Gitter, and Jess Chung.

[30] Do you want us to take off our shoes?

[31] And the race there seemed less agonized than it had in Iowa.

[32] For months, Bernie Sanders had been way out in front with everybody else, Joe Biden, Peebuda Judge, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, and the rest of the field, trailing far behind.

[33] Wanted it down, or how do you want to work this?

[34] That's not especially surprising.

[35] New Hampshire is a state where independents are allowed to vote in the party primaries.

[36] So that's a group that should like him.

[37] On top of it, he's the center from the neighboring state, Vermont.

[38] So a lot of people here have known him on a first -name basis for decades.

[39] Oh, my name is Atlan Schmidt.

[40] I'm a software engineer, and I've been in New Hampshire since 1978.

[41] When did you first, first, learn about Bernie Sanders?

[42] My family vacations in Vermont two weeks every year for a long time, and I carried on that tradition for a long time as well.

[43] So even back when Bernie was the mayor I started to know just the name But when he was the congressman in Vermont I actually started to follow him And then he became the senator I did make a stop up his senatorial campaign office Made a donation and got the senatorial t -shirt So you still have the shirt Oh yeah I still have the shirt I really wanted to show my support for the guy And encourage him in his future endeavors Which turned out to be pretty big Today I am proud to announce my candidacy for President of the United States of America.

[44] So in 2015, when Sanders announced he was going to run for president against Hillary Clinton, he finds a lot of support in New Hampshire.

[45] And as we got closer to the primary in New Hampshire, we were doing honkin waves continuously.

[46] Every Saturday morning, the Bernie team was out.

[47] And the response just got better and better and better as the weeks went by.

[48] Even when Hillary Clinton was presumed to be the nominee, even after she narrowly won the Iowa caucuses, Alan says he could still feel the way of building.

[49] To the point where a really noticeable fraction of people going by were responding positively to us.

[50] So we were very confident in 2016 the things were going to go well and did work out that way.

[51] Breaking news, NBC News projects Bernie Sanders has won the New Hampshire Democratic primary defeating Hillary Clinton.

[52] Bernie Sanders crushes Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.

[53] This is a shalacking or more.

[54] It's a total route if you look at the state of New Hampshire.

[55] 60 % for Bernie Sanders.

[56] Hillary Clinton at 39%.

[57] New New Hampshire, and now it's on to Nevada, South Carolina, and beyond.

[58] What do you think New Hampshire liked about him so much?

[59] I think the fact that he speaks his mind very plainly.

[60] We're pretty plain spoken here in New Hampshire.

[61] I think the things he was advocating were, even back then, things people were feeling the need for.

[62] People very much want to change.

[63] my wife as a state rep went door to door and a lot of Republicans told her they want to change they would have liked the good change that Bernie Sanders could have brought but if they couldn't get that they were going to get change anyway what they ended up doing of course is they ended up voting for Trump and I think those people are still out there and they still want change and they want good change they're not happy with what they got we notice in our drive up here that we're in a really beautiful picturesque neighborhood and we're in a very beautiful house, and you're a software engineer.

[64] And I wonder why someone like you would want a burn it down candidate.

[65] Because even though I have a nice job right now, I was laid off in my last job when my job went to Costa Rica.

[66] They had me train up my replacements from Costa Rica and then said, thanks, we don't need you anymore.

[67] I would like to see a sustainable economy in this country.

[68] I'm getting to retirement age.

[69] I'd like to see the opportunity to retire, perhaps with health care, which I won't have otherwise.

[70] My life would be better, I think, if President Sanders were running the joint.

[71] So you think he's going to win here?

[72] I think he's going to win here in New Hampshire, yes.

[73] I think he will win a plurality, and I think it'll be comfortable plurality.

[74] So with days left before the primary, Sanders' basis of support.

[75] felt pretty secure here in New Hampshire.

[76] Our question was, what about the rest of the candidates?

[77] Because what we had just seen in Iowa was that Sanders' support had been pretty secure there too.

[78] And so, for the most part, the more moderate candidates had been competing with one another for a share of the same group of indecisive voters, voters who were trying to decide which candidate could best beat Donald Trump, and who didn't think that person was Bernie Sanders.

[79] And that vote kind of fragmented.

[80] The preliminary results from Iowa were showing Sanders and Buttigieg basically neck and neck.

[81] Warren was in third, and Biden was a very disappointing fourth.

[82] But New Hampshire prides itself on being contrary and ignoring the results of Iowa.

[83] So we wondered if those voters in New Hampshire who don't support Sanders, if they might start to come together around someone else.

[84] So did you guys hear what's happening in Iowa?

[85] Yeah, booty egg, right?

[86] Bernie won the caucus, no?

[87] No, it's booed egg, buddeg, right?

[88] Doesn't Iowa always mess up?

[89] Does New Hampshire do it better?

[90] I would say so.

[91] I would say so.

[92] Definitely.

[93] Have you followed what's happened in Iowa?

[94] What happened in Iowa?

[95] No one knows.

[96] I think I was up until 4 o 'clock in the morning the other night.

[97] It's thinking it can't last any longer.

[98] Can't possibly last anymore.

[99] Do you think somebody, like, can't?

[100] out if they're looking like a winner?

[101] Looks like Bernie and Pete Buttiginger.

[102] But that's Iowa.

[103] Who cares?

[104] Right?

[105] Iowa's job is to call the field, and they didn't do that.

[106] They fail, right?

[107] I think Michael Bloomberg looks like a political genius at this point for avoiding Iowa.

[108] So what do you guys think about Iowa?

[109] Uh, um, uh, uh, Iowa is just a big poop.

[110] That might be the quote of the episode.

[111] What do you make of, Iowa, you think it, how do you think that changes the dynamic here?

[112] New Hampshire voters are very independent.

[113] The results of Iowa really aren't going to impact how New Hampshire votes.

[114] Oh, good Lord, no. They're in another country, you know.

[115] You need a passport to go to Iowa from New Hampshire.

[116] Depending on the result, it might, it might.

[117] I don't know, just maybe seeing what those people think could influence what I'm thinking as well.

[118] I don't know.

[119] I think it was interesting.

[120] I don't think people expected Joe Biden to do as poorly as he'd.

[121] did.

[122] Does that change how you view him?

[123] No, I don't think so, but I think it might other people.

[124] Are you into him?

[125] I'd say like 50%.

[126] And who's the other 50?

[127] Probably Mayor Pete.

[128] Yep.

[129] But you don't think the fact that Pete did well and Biden did poorly impacts how you now make your decision?

[130] Because I assume you want electability as a thing.

[131] Yeah, no, I think it would swayed me a little bit more towards Mayor Pete.

[132] Just seeing the results there, yeah.

[133] So on Thursday afternoon, three days after the Iowa caucuses, was still no winner called...

[134] Okay, it's 315 on Thursday.

[135] We're at this Pete Buttigieg rally, and they won't let us in because it's at capacity.

[136] We show up at an American Legion Hall in Merrimack, and the room is already overflowing.

[137] I'm standing on the stairs trying to get around.

[138] And I can see about 40 people just outside, also trying to get in.

[139] And actually, before he goes on stage...

[140] We are taking no vote for granted.

[141] Obviously, we feel a lot of momentum coming here, but I know how New Hampshire doesn't, is never told what to do.

[142] Budajajad comes outside and gives a little speech to everyone waiting outside in the freezing rain.

[143] So if you're here as a supporter, thank you so much for that.

[144] And please continue to spread the word.

[145] If you're here to make up your mind, please stay tuned.

[146] We'll continue to be doing events all through the state and hope to earn that support as we go into Tuesday.

[147] Thanks so much again.

[148] I appreciate it.

[149] And after about 45 minutes of standing around, we're able to talk our way inside.

[150] But to do what he just did, taking questions like that off the cup.

[151] And we meet this guy named Dave Hennessy, whose wife, he calls her the boss, had just wandered away.

[152] She's going to decide for me tonight, probably, I think.

[153] Is this your wife?

[154] Yeah, that's my wife.

[155] I've been torn between Biden and Pete.

[156] And I love Joe, and when I'm looking at him, my big reason for leaning towards Joe is I'm dead sure he can beat Trump.

[157] He's convincing me that he can too.

[158] He means Buttigieg.

[159] Is Iowa?

[160] Iowa's part of it.

[161] But the fact that he can think, and I've seen it before, I've seen him doing this before, being able to talk the way he does so quickly, so fast, he'll kill Trump in the debate.

[162] Absolutely wipe him out.

[163] The fact that Pete seems like the winner there, we don't know, or like he did well, is compelling to you.

[164] It is compelling.

[165] It does, I mean, let's put the elephant in the room on the table.

[166] The fact is, though, there are bigots out there, that more.

[167] on woman out in, I'm sorry, I shouldn't say, but the woman out in Iowa who just discovered Pete was gay and then said she wouldn't vote for him because the Bible wouldn't allow it.

[168] I mean, there are people like that.

[169] Even today in 2020, I think it's a problem.

[170] I hope to God that that kind of thinking isn't so widespread that would cost him the election.

[171] But it worries me because we've got to get Trump out of there.

[172] Are you worried about the moderate vote being split between Biden and Buttigieg?

[173] To be honest, no. Everybody, I think most people have the same opinion I have.

[174] We'd vote for a rock over Trump.

[175] So whoever wins, ultimately, the nominee is going to be anti -Trump.

[176] And I think that's priority.

[177] One, two, three, four, et cetera.

[178] We've got to beat this guy.

[179] He's a disgrace.

[180] He's awful.

[181] All my friends, a lot of my friends, who are Republicans, are not going to vote for Trump.

[182] But I'm afraid they may sit out.

[183] As we're talking, Dave's wife returns.

[184] All right, so the boss is back.

[185] Hi.

[186] What do you think?

[187] Are you decided or you...

[188] I like Pete.

[189] I think I'm going to go with Pete.

[190] So you're going to sell him on it?

[191] Might split the vote.

[192] He's done that before, but...

[193] I mean, I like Joe, too, but he's just got so much energy.

[194] Again, by he, she means Buttigieg.

[195] To be clear, We both like Amy.

[196] We like Amy a lot.

[197] With Amy?

[198] You're talking...

[199] You're talking Midwest.

[200] Yeah, you're talking Midwest, and I think Pete just got...

[201] And I don't want to lose her out of the Senate, to be honest.

[202] I mean, as close as it is, I think she's got to stay in the Senate.

[203] You'll notice this is not an entirely satisfying answer.

[204] Having now talked to a ton of voters, it feels like there's this thing going on, where a lot of people personally really like Amy.

[205] Klobuchar, but they sort of assume not enough other people really like Amy Klobuchar.

[206] And then we try a version of the moderate question again.

[207] Do you think that it's more suitable for a moderate, like a Biden or a Pete or Klobuchar, to go to toe to toe with Trump?

[208] Or do you think a progressive like Bernie Sanders is well suited to go to toe to show with Trump?

[209] I think it's valid, but I'm not for Bernie.

[210] I know Bernie, I think, pretty well out of Burlington, back when he's mayor of Burlington.

[211] Socialism doesn't scare me and all that.

[212] I just don't think he can get his programs through Congress.

[213] I don't think he can do it.

[214] Are you worried that with the moderate vote being split between Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden, that that fracturing will mean that Sanders ends up winning the nomination?

[215] I don't hear it.

[216] Everybody I talk to is saying, same thing.

[217] I may be for Bernie, I may be for this and that, but I'll support anybody who's the nominee for the Democratic Party to beat Trump.

[218] That's what I hear.

[219] You two said that you're going to cancel each other out.

[220] So if you vote Biden...

[221] But see, I don't think them's quiet.

[222] I hate to say it.

[223] At the Buttigieg rally, at least, this is not proving to be a fruitful line of questioning.

[224] It's clear Buttigieg's performance in Iowa is having an influence on some moderate New Hampshire Democrats.

[225] He's got momentum.

[226] But the sort of calculation we're wondering about, people don't even seem to process the question we're asking them.

[227] It's so far outside the way they actually seem to be thinking.

[228] So we pack up and head to an Elizabeth Warren rally.

[229] Warren seems to be in this funny no -man's land here in New Hampshire.

[230] On the one hand, she's competing with liberal voters for Sanders, but they don't see her as authentic of a liberal choice.

[231] But on the other hand, more moderate voters see her big liberal policies as far too deep.

[232] damaging to go up in a general election against Donald Trump.

[233] I'm a New Hampshire voter.

[234] I have no idea who I'm voting for.

[235] You're both totally undecided.

[236] Right.

[237] Totally.

[238] That's why we're here.

[239] Yeah, you've got to listen.

[240] So you find a lot of undecided people at Warren's events, trying to figure out what exactly they think.

[241] We're sisters.

[242] Yeah, you couldn't tell.

[243] No, no, I see it.

[244] It's in the eyes.

[245] It's in the eyes.

[246] I'm the friend of the sisters.

[247] And we meet these sisters, Mary and Nancy, with their friend Sue.

[248] They're all retired and they're all really conflicted about what they think about the race.

[249] Absolutely.

[250] And I'm very concerned because there are so many Democratic candidates that the vote is going to be split and Trump is going to get in again.

[251] I mean, you can't have all of those, all of the candidates to me have good things and bad.

[252] things about what they want.

[253] Right.

[254] But when you've got five people, and actually there's more, but...

[255] Yeah, five mean.

[256] Right.

[257] I think the vote is going to be just so split that Trump's going to get in again.

[258] So first we're thinking, okay, here you go.

[259] This is the fractured vote thing.

[260] So do you have, like, any preference among those five?

[261] Oh, I knew you're going to say that.

[262] I knew you were.

[263] And frankly, I don't.

[264] I like Buttigieg, but sometimes I think he's so young.

[265] He's very bright.

[266] But he's so young, I'm not sure if experiences what, I mean, look, Trump had no experience at all.

[267] And who else?

[268] Bernie, I'm, I don't know.

[269] He's got a good attitude, but I'm just not certain about his policies.

[270] So do you think like the party needs to unify around someone?

[271] Yes, absolutely.

[272] It's just who do you do?

[273] Well, yes.

[274] So I'll wait until New Hampshire and see what they say and I'll go from there.

[275] But you're riding in New Hampshire.

[276] Oh, yes.

[277] Oh, absolutely.

[278] And you?

[279] Are you...

[280] I'm undecided.

[281] You're undecided?

[282] I have preferences.

[283] I like Elizabeth's energy.

[284] But then again, the fact that Bernie got such a jump said, well, maybe he has more support and maybe he could be Trump.

[285] So I said, well, maybe he's better to go with rather than Elizabeth.

[286] because he did do so well in Iowa.

[287] But then we realized, not quite.

[288] They're considering Sanders is one of their choices.

[289] And then I wouldn't, I still don't think Pete's the one.

[290] So even though he did well, I'm glad he did well.

[291] So Jess circles back more directly to our favorite question.

[292] One question for you, Paul, a question is, do you think that Bernie did really well in Iowa as a result of maybe more moderate candidates kind of splitting up the boat?

[293] among all the other candidates?

[294] Oh, that the rest of the vote was divided and so Bernie came out on top.

[295] The more moderate.

[296] You mentioned that you're worried about fragmentation.

[297] Yes.

[298] Yeah.

[299] I never thought about that before.

[300] It never occurred to me. I was thinking, like, who's going to be the moderate versus the progressive and who's going to take the lead in that?

[301] that duel, but I don't...

[302] Again, no. I might, if I vote for a moderate, I could possibly...

[303] New Hampshire Democrats, like Iowa Democrats, are just looking for a winning candidate.

[304] New Hampshire just has a little bit more evidence to go on, because they go second.

[305] I've excluded Biden.

[306] Why?

[307] Too old, too out of touch.

[308] He kind of is embarrassing.

[309] He was very good at seeing an end last night.

[310] He had a town hall.

[311] I thought he did very well.

[312] But I don't think he's just too old.

[313] Look at the age of these.

[314] He's too old, and we're like, we're too old for them to be asking us questions.

[315] So on Saturday morning, we woke up to a state that looked undeniably aware of what had happened in Iowa.

[316] A new poll had just been released that showed.

[317] Buttigieg surging in New Hampshire and actually polling one point higher than Sanders at 25%.

[318] Meanwhile, Biden had plummeted to 11%.

[319] And at the debate in Manchester the night before, unlike some of the folks up here, I don't have 40 billionaires, Pete, contributing to my campaign.

[320] Coming from the pharmaceutical industry.

[321] Sanders went after Buttigieg.

[322] We need that kind of unification when our nominee is dividing people with a politics that says if you don't go all the way to the edge, it doesn't count.

[323] A politics that says it's my way or the highway.

[324] Are you talking about Senator Sanders?

[325] Buttigieg went after Sanders.

[326] We have a newcomer in the White House, and look where it got us.

[327] I think having some experience is a good thing.

[328] Senator Warren, is that a substantial answer from Mayor Buttigieg?

[329] No. Everyone went after both of them.

[330] Candidates welcome.

[331] Vice President Biden.

[332] The first question is for you.

[333] In the last few days, you've been saying that Democrats would be taking too big a risk if they nominate Senator Sanders or Mayor Buttigieg.

[334] But they came out on top in Iowa.

[335] What risk did the Iowa Democrats miss?

[336] And Biden had opened the event by acknowledging the results of Iowa.

[337] The long race, I took a hit in Iowa, and I'll probably take a hit here.

[338] Traditionally, Bernie won by 20 points last time.

[339] And basically trying to lower expectations in New Hampshire.

[340] I've always viewed the first four encounter.

[341] two primaries and two caucuses as the starting point.

[342] And so that's how I do it.

[343] But why are Senator Sanders?

[344] On our way out of the hotel, we bumped into our colleague Alex Burns.

[345] How are you?

[346] How are you?

[347] Do I in New Hampshire?

[348] I have barely enough this hotel.

[349] Yeah.

[350] Who, as usual, was thinking smart thoughts after watching Biden debate the night before.

[351] This is actually one of the issues for Biden, if he does poorly in New Hampshire, right?

[352] the process in Iowa is so screwed up, even on a good day, that a candidate who loses Iowa can say, like, okay, that's not representative of literally anything, right?

[353] And they've got a pretty good case to make.

[354] New Hampshire, it's not the most diverse state.

[355] It's not a state that terribly well represents the National Democratic Coalition.

[356] It is a primary election, right?

[357] And it is a pretty straightforward process.

[358] You can't say this is this, like, arcane set of hoops that voters need to jump through.

[359] So if you do end up with reasonable turnout here and Biden gets clobbered again, I don't know that you can ride off a second consecutive, just really limp finish.

[360] Not only is New Hampshire harder to explain away, Biden is the Kansasate whose entire candidacy is staked on being the electable one.

[361] The bigger picture, right, is that he came into this race as the favorite to win the nomination.

[362] He was the frontrunner nationally, and he was the frontrunner in these early states, right?

[363] Whatever his campaign is saying now about, you know, never thinking they could win New Hampshire, Iowa is always going to be very tough.

[364] He was leading in the polls in these states when he actually announced his campaign.

[365] And this is the guy who has presented himself as the one sure bet to win the general election.

[366] And his one outcome so far has been a loss and a pretty embarrassing loss.

[367] And by all accounts from his own team, they're expecting another loss on Tuesday.

[368] Well, I'm going to head out and see Biden today.

[369] So we'll see whether anyone shows up.

[370] I'm Lisa, Lara.

[371] It's possible I didn't are a sweepie.

[372] Okay.

[373] Yep, you did.

[374] Oh, awesome.

[375] Look at me. So across town, okay, so I'm at this Biden event.

[376] It's in a small theater right in downtown Manchester.

[377] He got a pretty good crowd.

[378] The turnout was better than we expected.

[379] The balcony is full.

[380] They're filled the space.

[381] They're even sitting on the stage.

[382] in front of a sign that says Soul of the Nation, which of course is a Biden's slogan.

[383] So let's see how it goes.

[384] I'm going to try to find some people to talk to.

[385] Hey, hi.

[386] Sorry to bother you guys.

[387] My name's Lisa Lairer.

[388] I'm from the New York Times.

[389] Are you guys New Hampshire voters?

[390] No, sorry.

[391] Oh, where are you from?

[392] Rhode Island.

[393] Oh, cool.

[394] All right.

[395] I'll keep going.

[396] Okay.

[397] But then I started walking around.

[398] Are you living in New Hampshire now?

[399] No, no, Long Island.

[400] You're in Long Island.

[401] Good luck finding a resident.

[402] Right.

[403] Where are you from Boston?

[404] You're from Boston.

[405] And you?

[406] New York.

[407] New York, Michigan.

[408] From D .C. California.

[409] I'm from Canada.

[410] Oh, you're from Canada.

[411] Are you from New York?

[412] No. You're from New York.

[413] Oh, you're from New York.

[414] Jersey, Massachusetts.

[415] So what do you do it up here?

[416] Political tourism.

[417] Check it out.

[418] As a Times journalist, how do you account for all of us here in no New Hampshire rights?

[419] This is not good.

[420] This is not good.

[421] No, come out.

[422] Do you guys, are you Biden fans?

[423] No. We're trying to do an energy check on Joe, and it's not looking good.

[424] No. No, we're from Rhode Island.

[425] Oh.

[426] These are also from Rhode Island.

[427] They're all Rhode Island.

[428] The girl with the green sweater, the lady after her may be from New Hampshire.

[429] Yes.

[430] Oh, great.

[431] You're the only one in this entire row.

[432] Are you serious?

[433] Yeah, I'm serious.

[434] Seen Biden will work?

[435] Yes, I did.

[436] I think he would be an extremely capable leader, yes.

[437] And have you seen me?

[438] Yes, I have.

[439] Thoughts?

[440] I think he's perfectly capable, too.

[441] See Amy Klobuchar also.

[442] I have a more severe approach.

[443] I'll drop a candidate if they don't have their act together.

[444] Do you think Biden has his act together?

[445] No, not at president.

[446] We both like Joe a lot, but that's not where we're going at the president.

[447] in time.

[448] Where are you going?

[449] I'm going with Bloomberg.

[450] I'm sorry, my wife is going with Bloomberg.

[451] I'm going with Breedichich.

[452] Okay.

[453] Cool.

[454] All right.

[455] Well, thank you guys.

[456] Enjoy it.

[457] Good luck, sweetheart.

[458] Half of this crowd up here.

[459] It turns out in a year where everybody wants to elect a winner, looking like a winner by winning some states really, really matters.

[460] And that's why Iowa, despite all the chaos, despite all the confusion, is just just deeply in the brains of people in New Hampshire.

[461] On Monday, in their final push across New Hampshire, ahead of today's primary vote, the Democratic candidates, especially the two leading candidates, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, made the case that the other's message was a losing one.

[462] Knowing how much depends on bringing Americans together, we cannot risk alienating Americans at this critical moment.

[463] And that's where at part of, ways with my friend Senator Sanders.

[464] Buttigieg warned that Sanders' left -wing proposals could turn off the voters most needed to defeat President Trump in this fall's general election.

[465] While Sanders sought to energize his anti -establishment supporters by highlighting the support that Buttig has received from corporate elites.

[466] The Times reports that with two ideologically opposed candidates leading the race, and three leading rivals, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and a surging Amy Klobuchar, jostling for third place.

[467] All top five candidates are likely to continue on after tonight's primary, an event that typically ends with candidates dropping out of the race.