//The Wire//1930Z January 16, 2024//

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//BLUF: ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING ESCALATE. IRAN TARGETS ALLEGED MOSSAD SPY BASES IN IRAQ.//

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-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Attacks in the Red Sea intensify following U.S. targeting in Yemen. This morning, the M/V ZOGRAFIA was struck with a cruise missile in the southern Red Sea. Yesterday, the American-owned M/V GIBRALTAR EAGLE was also struck with a missile in the Gulf of Aden.

Middle East: Overnight, multiple targets within Erbil, Iraq were struck with multiple ballistic missiles originating from Iran. Iranian statements indicate this attack was conducted in response to the terror attack in Kerman weeks ago. Targets in Syria were also struck as IRGC forces carry out the largest ballistic missile attack in recent memory.

In Gaza, tensions between Egypt and Israel have intensified over the past few days as Israeli forces seek to maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor. This thin strip of land along the Israeli-Egyptian border has served as a diplomatic buffer zone between Israel and Egypt following the 1979 peace treaty that officially halted the multiple conflicts in the region until that time. As Israel has sought to occupy this diplomatic no-mans-land (allegedly to halt the flow of weapons into Gaza), tensions in the region have been exacerbated. Egypt has previously stated that taking the Philadelphi corridor was a “red line”, and last night skirmishes were reported between Egyptian and Israeli troops along the border.

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Analyst Comments: As a reminder, Yemeni leadership has constantly stated that a ceasefire in Gaza would result in a cessation of targeting in the Red Sea. As this option is completely off the table among warring parties, and the U.S. is unable to stop Yemeni targeting, attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea will likely continue. The war in Yemen, while largely a civil conflict, has also involved a coalition of Arab states since the beginning. A coalition of 10 Arab states has been waging war in Yemen since 2015 (along with the support from western powers), with the goal of ousting the Houthi-controlled government.

Despite initial reporting, the U.S. Consulate in Erbil was not targeted by IRGC forces last night. The closest location targeted was a private mansion approximately 3 miles NE of the U.S. Consulate, that was allegedly serving as a headquarters for Mossad. This location (IVO 38S MF 22091 18152) was the home of Peshraw Dizayee, the leader of Falcon Group, a large conglomerate of corporations involved with security, construction, real estate, oil and gas, cosmetics, and technology. This location was struck as Dizayee was allegedly conducting a meeting with four Mossad agents. The nature of this meeting appears to have coincided with a birthday party for Dizayee’s infant daughter (also killed in the attack), who would have turned one year old on Jan 25th. Also at the gathering was Karam Mikhail (an oil tycoon and friend of Dizayee), who was also killed in the attack.

Analyst: S2A

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The Wire -January 16, 2024